How do Romney or Obama get to 270?

[MannyIsGod]

So, in memory of my favorite political thread of all time (this won't can't match since the last one was 75% me and Whottt arguing. RIP) I figured I'd start this one.

Obviously, in the previous thread I spent much of the time arguing that the polls were showing that Obama was going to pretty much run away with the victory. McCain had no money through much of the campaign and he had to deal with the Bush baggage. There was little realistic chance for him to win.

Romney, on the other hand, has plenty of money and will in all likelihood outspend Obama during this election cycle. He's not dealing with the issues the incumbent has to deal with but he in no way shape or form is riding a wave of enthusiasm such as the Obama came in on back in 2008. GOP support for Romney is grudgingly at best.


Things are different for Obama as well. I do not expect there to be turnout numbers anywhere near what 2008 brought and this time around Obama has a very clear record to campaign on and for others to campaign against.

On a personal note, I'm no where near as plugged into politics as I was 4 years ago. I have no plans to volunteer for anyone and I don't read every news story or blog about the election. In fact, a few weeks back I took the last political blog off of my RSS feed and I haven't missed it since. That being said, I do enjoy watching the poll numbers change through the election based on various events, gaffes, and general campaigning so I actually am looking forward to monitoring the projections.

As always, 80% or so of the nation is pretty much locked in according to polling. Texas is not going blue, and NY is not going red. Etc etc. The main battleground states are as follows (electoral votes in parentheses)

Colorado (9)
Ohio (18)
Virginia (13)
Florida (29)
North Carolina (15)
Iowa (6)
Missouri (10)

To a lesser extent:

Pennsylvania (20)
Michigan (16)
Wisconsin (10)

There are a few other lean states, but really this is where the election will be won or lost.

Currently, the projections I put the most trust in (this hasn't changed in 4 year. Nate Silver is now employed through the NYT but still does the best analysis and electoral-vote.com still does n excellent job as well) show Obama with a very good margin to get a 2nd term. Of course, these projections don't take into account the money that will be spent, upcoming world events, and possible gaffes.

All in all, I don't see this anywhere near as close as the 2 Bush elections but I also don't see it as big a blowout as 2008. If nothing unusual happens, Obama probably has about a 60% chance to be reelected (IMO)

[coyotes_geek]

Romney, on the other hand, has plenty of money and will in all likelihood outspend Obama during this election cycle.

???

Obama has raised double the money that Mitt has. He'll easily outspend Romney by a wide margin.

http://www.opensecrets.org/pres12/candidate.php?id=N00000286

http://www.opensecrets.org/pres12/candidate.php?id=N00009638

[coyotes_geek]

That being said, I agree with your conclusion. Obama's going to win.

[jack sommerset]

To bad Manny did not build that argument. Manny, your predictions have been wrong before. Let's hope you are wrong again. God bless

[MannyIsGod]

???

Obama has raised double the money that Mitt has. He'll easily outspend Romney by a wide margin.

http://www.opensecrets.org/pres12/candidate.php?id=N00000286

http://www.opensecrets.org/pres12/candidate.php?id=N00009638

Oh don't worry, the bulk of the fundraising is yet to come. In Sep 2008 Obama raised 150 million. Romney will more than likely outspend Obama.

[scott]

???

Obama has raised double the money that Mitt has. He'll easily outspend Romney by a wide margin.

http://www.opensecrets.org/pres12/candidate.php?id=N00000286

http://www.opensecrets.org/pres12/candidate.php?id=N00009638

Those reports are a little dated, and the momentum has been on Romney's side as of late, raising more than Obama in May and June.

http://www.usnews.com/news/blogs/ballot-2012/2012/06/07/romney-tops-obama-in-historic-may-for-presidential-fundraising

http://in.reuters.com/article/2012/07/09/usa-campaign-money-romney-idINDEE8680CU20120709

There is a lot of talk of how Obama will be the first incumbent to not raise more than his challenger.

[scott]

So long as Romney's campaign hinges only on a hatred for Obama, he'll lose. If Romney can make this an election about ideas, then he has a chance. For now, there have been no ideas and Romney hasn't been helping himself as of late.

[boutons_deux]

This guy was very accurate in 2008.

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/

[coyotes_geek]

Those reports are a little dated, and the momentum has been on Romney's side as of late, raising more than Obama in May and June.

http://www.usnews.com/news/blogs/ballot-2012/2012/06/07/romney-tops-obama-in-historic-may-for-presidential-fundraising

http://in.reuters.com/article/2012/07/09/usa-campaign-money-romney-idINDEE8680CU20120709

There is a lot of talk of how Obama will be the first incumbent to not raise more than his challenger.

Per that reuters link, the source of that talk is the Obama campaign itself. So is that an honest opinion from them, or just a fundraising tactic? Personally I think it's the latter, but time will tell.


So long as Romney's campaign hinges only on a hatred for Obama, he'll lose. If Romney can make this an election about ideas, then he has a chance. For now, there have been no ideas and Romney hasn't been helping himself as of late.

Agreed.

[boutons_deux]

"If Romney can make this an election about ideas"

Gecko has been heard enough to know he's flip flopping, felony liar devoid of ideas, just like dubya.

[mercos]

I think the next few jobs reports before the election are going to be crucial. If the unemployment rate goes up again, even a tenth of a percent, I think Obama is probably going to lose. Realistically, he needs to string together a couple of months of six figure job growth, with at least one month crossing the 200,000 mark. Polls are already showing that Romney is closing the gap in swing states. The economy is trumping everything, including the Bain attacks. Another sub six figure jobs report and Romney will start to take a lead in every competitive state.

[jack sommerset]

Obama, the dems were elected into office because of hate. Wars, gitmo, stupidity, corruption, etc....not a lot has change except a dem is in office and we have been hit with the biggest tax increase in our nations history along with video after video of Obama lying. I didn't see to manny of you obama supporters predict correctly what would happen in 2010. God bless

[George Gervin's Afro]

Obama, the dems were elected into office because of hate. Wars, gitmo, stupidity, corruption, etc....not a lot has change except a dem is in office and we have been hit with the biggest tax increase in our nations history along with video after video of Obama lying. I didn't see to manny of you obama supporters predict correctly what would happen in 2010. God bless

largest tax increase..lol

[TeyshaBlue]

So long as Romney's campaign hinges only on a hatred for Obama, he'll lose. If Romney can make this an election about ideas, then he has a chance. For now, there have been no ideas and Romney hasn't been helping himself as of late.

Yup. Shitty candidate with -10 Charisma.

[TeyshaBlue]

Ahhhh...the good old days.:lol

http://i3.photobucket.com/albums/y64/teyshablue/Obama_GIF.gif

[lakerhaterade]

Ahhhh...the good old days.:lol

http://i3.photobucket.com/albums/y64/teyshablue/Obama_GIF.gif

:lmao

[coyotes_geek]

Ahhhh...the good old days.:lol

http://i3.photobucket.com/albums/y64/teyshablue/Obama_GIF.gif

I feel cheated for not getting to see Joe or Dennis vs. McCain.........

[scott]

Ahhhh...the good old days.:lol

http://i3.photobucket.com/albums/y64/teyshablue/Obama_GIF.gif

Hall of fame material. Great stuff.

[ducks]

"If Romney can make this an election about ideas"

Gecko has been heard enough to know he's flip flopping, felony liar devoid of ideas, just like dubya.

every person is a liar lncluding you and all the ones that write your liberal thoughts for you

[boutons_deux]

every person is a liar lncluding you and all the ones that write your liberal thoughts for you

Gecko is a FELONY liar.

[Wild Cobra]

Oregon's seven electoral votes will go to Obama.

[Heath Ledger]

If the ads i've seen are any indication 90 percent anti Romney I would say that Obama is going to easily kick Romneys ass. It's pretty sad that Romney is the best that the Republicans currently have to offer. He reminds me of a used car salesman. He is the A typical baby kissing fake ass politician.

[boutons_deux]

Barry polls 2 to 1 over Gecko in "personal likability".

People would rather smoke a joint with Barry than drink a beer with Gecko.

Reminds of Perry not being very much liked by Texans (he blew $25M on the governor's mansion re-do)

[johnsmith]

Barry polls 2 to 1 over Gecko in "personal likability".



Right there is why Obama will win. That's why every President that is ever elected wins. Ever since TV was invented, that's why the people choose who they choose.

Romney doesn't have a shot.....no one relates to the guy.

[MannyIsGod]

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/07/30/july-30-forecast-stays-steady-with-99-days-to-go/?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter

So Romney is pissing off a lot of the rest of the world but apparently not people at home.

[Jacob1983]

http://jusflippin.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/02/money.jpg

[Wild Cobra]

http://jusflippin.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/02/money.jpg

I think you're a few billion short there.

[ChumpDumper]

I am honestly starting to think Palin might have been a better candidate than Romney at this point.

[MannyIsGod]

:lol No one is grabbing anyone's guns. This is the funniest meme I see from paranoid people on the internet.

[ChumpDumper]

WARSAW, Poland - A Mitt Romney spokesman reprimanded reporters traveling with the candidate on his six-day foreign trip, telling them to "kiss my ass" after they shouted questions from behind a rope line.

As Romney left the site of the Tomb of the Unknown Soldier in Warsaw and walked toward his motorcade parked in Pilsudski Square, reporters began shouting questions from the line where campaign staffers had told them to stay behind, prompting traveling press secretary Rick Gorka to tell a group of reporters to "kiss my ass" and "shove it."



He later apologized.

As Romney wrapped up his visit to the historical site, a CNN reporter had yelled, "Governor Romney, are you concerned about some of the mishaps of your trip."

"Governor Romney, do you have a statement for the Palestinians?" a New York Times reporter shouted. :lol

"What about your gaffes?" yelled a Washington Post reporter, referring to a number of missteps the candidate has made during his trip, including one in which he said there were some "disconcerting" developments leading up to the London Olympics, drawing the ire of the British media, and another suggesting that culture was to blame for the difference in economic success between Israelis and Palestinians.

The Romney campaign has called the reports on the candidate's remarks about Palestinians a "gross mischaracterization."

Gorka told reporters answering questions to "show some respect."

"This is a holy site for the Polish people," he added.

"We haven't had another chance to ask a question," one reporter noted to Gorka.

Gorka told another journalist to "shove it."

Romney last took questions - three - from the traveling press corps Thursday in London. Romney did not address the media that's flying with him on any of the three charter flights - two that lasted more than four hours - either. Romney has conducted several television interviews during the trip.

Gorka later called both reporters to apologize for his remarks, telling one that he was "inappropriate."

ABC News reached out to Gorka for an additional comment but did not immediately receive a response.

http://news.yahoo.com/mitt-romney-spokesman-tells-reporters-kiss-polish-holy-110442318--abc-news-politics.html

Three notable fuck ups on what should have been an international coronation/pre-victory lap. Is he trying to lose?

[Winehole23]

awkward, condescending and totally out of touch. that's our Romney.

[Clipper Nation]

Willard is an unmitigated disaster tbh.... wonder if the media regrets spending months humping Willard and ignoring Ron Paul da gawd....

[Winehole23]

and deny us a chance to elect the 1%er of our choice? perish the thought.

[jack sommerset]

Obama has a lot of problems in front of him. None is bigger than the above 8 percent in unemployment. God bless

[boutons_deux]

Poll: Obama Leads Key Swing States, Nearly 9 in 10 Say Mind is Made Up

http://s3.amazonaws.com/dk-production/images/2485/large/poll.png?1343825412

http://www.alternet.org/print/hot-news-views/poll-obama-leads-key-swing-states-nearly-9-10-say-mind-made

[boutons_deux]

July 31: Obama Forecast Improves on Data Showing Faster Income Growth

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/

[boutons_deux]

Obama has a lot of problems in front of him. None is bigger than the above 8 percent in unemployment. God bless

Gecko, even with his $Bs from assholes like Adelman, Rove, and the entire LYING right wing hate media, etc, has MUCH bigger problems thab Barry's 8%, which is not going to be the reelection killer it has been in other elections. The economy is changed 8%+ is the new norm. The jobs are gone, people are fucked, aka "structural unemployment"

[Wild Cobra]

If we take a what is probably a push poll, and adjust the numbers toward Romney by 5% to 10%....

[CosmicCowboy]

You guys keep telling yourselves Romney has no chance. This poliforum circle jerk cracks me up.

[Winehole23]

Romney has a good chance, as does his opponent.

[MannyIsGod]

Romney has a chance. Its just not as good as Obama's.

[Winehole23]

based on today's polling, sure. we'll see in November.

[Wild Cobra]

based on today's polling, sure. we'll see in November.
It also depends on how many people of each side turnout. I think it will boil down to who has the best turnout. Not what poll numbers say.

[MannyIsGod]

based on today's polling, sure. we'll see in November.

I wasn't saying we needed to cancel the election.

[MannyIsGod]

It also depends on how many people of each side turnout. I think it will boil down to who has the best turnout. Not what poll numbers say.

You're welcome to deny the effectiveness in forecasting as you frequently love to ignore sound logic but seeing as neither candidate is exactly causing either base to foam at the mouth with excitement I don't think turnout will be a surprise in either direction.

[ChumpDumper]

It also depends on how many people of each side turnout. I think it will boil down to who has the best turnout. Not what poll numbers say.

What about polls that say who will have the best turnout?

[Wild Cobra]

You're welcome to deny the effectiveness in forecasting as you frequently love to ignore sound logic but seeing as neither candidate is exactly causing either base to foam at the mouth with excitement I don't think turnout will be a surprise in either direction.
Can't you discern the difference between opinion and something being stated as fact?

No wonder you never win at the global warming arguments.

[ChumpDumper]

The fact Obama still has a chance is a testament to how bad a candidate Willard is.

[Wild Cobra]

The fact Willard still has a chance is a testament to how bad a candidate Obama is.

[ChumpDumper]

Not really. Any decent Republican candidate would have a solid double digit lead at this point. There just aren't any.

[Wild Cobra]

Not really. Any decent Republican candidate would have a solid double digit lead at this point. There just aren't any.
Just proves negative campaigning works in my opinion.

[ChumpDumper]

Just proves negative campaigning works in my opinion.Just proves that Willard can't handle it in my opinion. Guess he should go full birther/secret Muslim to get the advantage. Feel free to send him some pointers.

[CosmicCowboy]

I still think the majority of the undecideds will eventually swing for Romney putting him over the top. I read somewhere that in like the last 50 years any incumbent going into the election with less than 50% in the polls has lost. That has to worry Obama. There is nothing that can happen to improve the economy in the next 99 days and a lot of shit out there that could hurt it.

[boutons_deux]

Gecko, a moderate MA governor, is scared shitless of the tea baggers, extreme right Repugs, "Christian" Taleban, and racist/bigoted/ignorant red-state bubbas.

Actually, the emtpy chickenshit of a man has no choice. :lol

[Nbadan]

The denial is great in wing-nuts...

Quinnipiac: Obama +6 in OH, +6 in FL, +11 in PA

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2012/08/01/us/politics/01quinnipiac-new-york-times-cbs-poll.html

Good numbers!

[Nbadan]

We are seeing the first major shift in the campaign. The significance of this is big because all pollsters have, so far, noted how static the race has become and the likelihood of a big swing back is not great as so few people are undecided.

Here is Silver on Ohio (the whole article is useful, he shows that Romney has almost no chance to win the electoral college without Ohio)

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/07/27/july-27-ohio-polls-show-trouble-for-romney/

Rhere were two new polls out on Friday. One of them, from the firm We Ask America, gave Mr. Obama an eight-point lead there. Another, from Magellan Strategies, put Mr. Obama up by two points.

Note that Nate Silver has downgraded Romney's chances of winning the electoral college to 31%.

There is no reasonable path to an electoral college victory for Romney without Ohio. Portman is the only VP pick that helps in Ohio, so Portman's chances of being on the ticket just went up.

Romney's chances on Intrade have gone below 40 %

http://www.intrade.com/v4/home/

[Clipper Nation]

Just proves that Willard can't handle it in my opinion. Guess he should go full birther/secret Muslim to get the advantage. Feel free to send him some pointers.
Obama could come right back by questioning Willard's Mexican roots if he's willing to sink that low, although the tax returns thing was already enough to completely ether Willard, as we've seen....

Luckily, Ron Paul is still eligible for nomination in Tampa in case the GOP wakes up and realizes that following through with this trainwreck is a mistake... Ron bless

[MannyIsGod]

I honestly haven't looked at legitimate pathways to victory for either candidate, but it makes sense that Ohio is pivotal.

[ElNono]

I still think the majority of the undecideds will eventually swing for Romney putting him over the top. I read somewhere that in like the last 50 years any incumbent going into the election with less than 50% in the polls has lost. That has to worry Obama. There is nothing that can happen to improve the economy in the next 99 days and a lot of shit out there that could hurt it.

It's possible, but this is really a turd type of election... Romney really hasn't said much of anything to get the "undecided" vote. I would actually argue he has stuck to the rabid right script, which really isn't appealing to the middle.

Barry isn't really appealing either... just an overall shitty situation.

[MannyIsGod]

I just don't see why you would expect the undecided's break in either direction strongly. The fact that they are still undecided itself points to someone not having strong feelings either way.

[ChumpDumper]

Obama could come right back by questioning Willard's Mexican roots if he's willing to sink that low, although the tax returns thing was already enough to completely ether Willard, as we've seen....

Luckily, Ron Paul is still eligible for nomination in Tampa in case the GOP wakes up and realizes that following through with this trainwreck is a mistake... Ron blessA Ron Paul Republican nomination would change Obama's chances from possible to a lock.

[Nbadan]

A new poll shows 9 - 10 people have made up their minds...if your still a true independent at this point, it's very likely you'll go with the devil you know...

[Winehole23]

Porn star Jenna Jameson chose a familiar stage to make her endorsement for the 2012 presidential election Thursday night. At a San Francisco strip club, the former adult actress and stage performer said she was ready for a Romney presidency.

"I'm very looking forward to a Republican being back in office," Jameson said while sipping champagne in a VIP room at Gold Club in the city's South of Market neighborhood. "When you're rich, you want a Republican in office."http://www.wtsp.com/news/national/article/266612/81/Porn-star-endorses-Romney

[CosmicCowboy]

A new poll shows 9 - 10 people have made up their minds...if your still a true independent at this point, it's very likely you'll go with the devil you know...

Statistically this is untrue. If they still don't support the (known) incumbent when he is only 90 days from re-election then the majority of the undecideds will break for the challenger.

[boutons_deux]

"the majority of the undecideds will break for the challenger."

wishful thinking, aka, fantasy.

it'll be close, but I bet the incumbent wins by more than the incumbent in 2004

[Th'Pusher]

I bet Mitt wins the popular vote and O wins the electoral college.

[CosmicCowboy]

"the majority of the undecideds will break for the challenger."

wishful thinking, aka, fantasy.

it'll be close, but I bet the incumbent wins by more than the incumbent in 2004

I have posted documentation previously that supports that position. It is especially true when the approval rating of the incumbent is below 50%. As of today, Rasmussen has Obama's job approval rate at 43%.

[MannyIsGod]

Conventional wisdom says an incumbent with this economy should be LOSING at this point so you probably should reevaluate that conventional wisdom.

[CosmicCowboy]

Conventional wisdom says an incumbent with this economy should be LOSING at this point so you probably should reevaluate that conventional wisdom.

According to Rasmussen Obama IS losing 43% to 47%.


The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Friday shows Mitt Romney attracting 47% of the vote, while President Obama earns support from 43%. Five percent (5%) prefer some other candidate, and five percent (5%) are undecided.

Following Romney’s overseas trip, 44% believe the president is better able to deal with America’s allies. Another 44% say Romney is better for that task.

Republicans continue to follow the election more closely than Democrats or unaffiliated voters. This is a key indicator of potential turnout.

Matchup results are updated daily at 9:30 a.m. Eastern (sign up for free daily e-mail update). See tracking history.

[Winehole23]

you don't need documentation for hunches and predictions, nor does "documentation" make one hunch better than another.

[MannyIsGod]

I'd trust the aggregate of individual state polls over a single national poll - especially Rasmussen (see the last thread for that discussion).

[MannyIsGod]

you don't need documentation for hunches and predictions, nor does "documentation" make one hunch better than another.

Disagree completely. The whole point of discussion in the last thread was how accurate polls are in actually predicting the outcome - especially when you look at then all.

[boutons_deux]

According to Rasmussen Obama IS losing 43% to 47%.

Rasmussen is a VRWC shill, guaranteed a McLiar landslide a few weeks before Barry landslided McLiar.

[Winehole23]

Disagree completely. The whole point of discussion in the last thread was how accurate polls are in actually predicting the outcome - especially when you look at then all.what thread, sorry? and can you quantify that?

[MannyIsGod]

The Obama Mcain 270 thread four years ago.

Just as an example, you can take Nate Silvers forecasting.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FiveThirtyEight#Final_projections_of_2008_election

He's not alone, but he's the most notable example and IMO, the best.

[Winehole23]

that's anecdotal, Manny.

[Winehole23]

not saying you're wrong, but you make a very broad claim without showing your work.

[MannyIsGod]

Comparing results against predictions is not anecdotal in the least. There's plenty of other examples aside form Nate Silvers work but I used him as the main example since he's the best. There are plenty of social scientists out there running various prediction models with varying degrees of success but there is absolutely a foundation built for sound election prediction.

[ElNono]

Comparing results against predictions is not anecdotal in the least. There's plenty of other examples aside form Nate Silvers work but I used him as the main example since he's the best. There are plenty of social scientists out there running various prediction models with varying degrees of success but there is absolutely a foundation built for sound election prediction.

I don't disagree, however, I do think the stability of the numbers are still questionable, seeing that there's still decisions to be made that could have a radical impact (ie: VP selection on the GOP). Silvers admits as much when he says he only saw the numbers stabilize in 2008 after the October debates.

[MannyIsGod]

Absolutely. The quality of a prediction this far out is much less than a prediction in October. If Obama comes out and punches a baby tomorrow then it obviously changes everything, etc etc. You can't account for future events but you can take note of the current situation as shown by the polls.

[boutons_deux]

In Tight Iowa Race, Romney Struggles to Excite G.O.P. Base

But as he strides toward the traditional show of party unity at the Republican convention this month, Mr. Romney faces a worrisome undercurrent here: that the grass-roots elements who animated the Iowa caucuses - including evangelical Christians, Ron Paul supporters and Tea Party members - are not fully behind his candidacy in a battle that will be determined partly on who turns out his party's base.

"He just doesn't seem to connect well, and I'm not sure he's a strong enough candidate, to be very, very honest," said Steve Boender, a farmer here in southeast Iowa, who supported Rick Santorum in the state caucus. "I'm probably going to hold my nose and vote for him," Mr. Boender added, "but I'm afraid there are a fair amount of people that will" sit on their hands.

Prominent conservatives have called on Mr. Romney to make bolder efforts to rally the Republican base, including Gov. Scott Walker of Wisconsin and Sarah Palin, who pleaded with him last month to "light our hair on fire."

And Tuesday's victory of Ted Cruz, an insurgent with Tea Party support who vanquished Texas's lieutenant governor in a Senate primary, raised new questions about whether a Republican Party deeply split over its future direction and leadership can fully unite in the November elections behind an establishment politician.

There is little doubt that conservatives want to drive Mr. Obama from office. But whether Mr. Romney - who once backed universal health care and supported abortion rights - can generate the excitement needed to draw these voters to the polls is a question that worries Republicans in a state considered crucial to the Romney playbook.

"Cruz won because he was viewed as the change agent," said Craig Robinson, a former political director of the Iowa Republican Party. He faulted the Romney campaign for playing small ball for much of July by focusing on a statement the president made about who deserves credit for a business's success.

"While Boston is busy attacking President Obama for the remarks he made in Roanoke a few weeks ago, the electorate is clamoring for a candidate who will attack and reform the federal government," Mr. Robinson said, alluding to the headquarters of the Romney campaign.

http://mobile.nytimes.com/article?a=955848&f=19

"the electorate is clamoring for a candidate who will attack and reform the federal government,"

If true, it shows how the VRWC has propagandized/indoctrinated the electorate into believing Government Is The Problem, when it's really the 1% and corporations who have corrupted/bribed/owned the govt into doing their bidding.

The stupid, ignorant, non-critical-thinking, disaffected, disengaged, superficial electorate, just the way the VWRC loves them.

[Winehole23]

Comparing results against predictions is not anecdotal in the least. There's plenty of other examples aside form Nate Silvers work but I used him as the main example since he's the best. There are plenty of social scientists out there running various prediction models with varying degrees of success but there is absolutely a foundation built for sound election prediction.guess I'll just have to take your word for it, since you've only given one example to buttress your point.

[Winehole23]

and none whatsoever to support your generalization

[MannyIsGod]

http://electoral-vote.com/evp2012/Info/track-record.html
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/09/30/the-uncanny-accuracy-of-polling-averages-part-2-what-the-numbers-say/
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/10/03/the-uncanny-accuracy-of-polling-averages-part-3-this-time-its-different/
http://www.people-press.org/methodology/election-polling/gauging-the-accuracy-of-election-polls/

[MannyIsGod]

and none whatsoever to support your generalization

What generalization is that? That election polls can be used to predict election's accurately? Isn't the fact that there are people doing it proof of that? I listed two websites in the OP with well established track records of doing just that. They both have very open and transparent methodologies and their prediction success is far outside the realm of chance. Nate Silver has documented the accuracy of polls.

I don't get what more I have to prove here. They've come up with a reasoning on how they can predict election results using polling data and they've used these algorithms for many elections over the past decade with very high rate of success that falls outside the envelope of getting lucky.

[Winehole23]

beg pardon, but so what? why do we need predictive science for elections?

[ElNono]

beg pardon, but so what? why do we need predictive science for elections?

You must not be acquainted with the good ol' American pastime... "I told you so!"

[MannyIsGod]

beg pardon, but so what? why do we need predictive science for elections?

I don't recall that I ever argued for a "need". So why do I now need to prove one?

[Winehole23]

I don't expect a proof, but it's telling that you have no reply to the question besides parrying it with another.

[MannyIsGod]

Its telling when you erect a complete straw man. I didn't argue there was a need for election prediction yet you're making me defend that position. Since it wasn't clear, I don't believe there is a need. I also don't believe that matters.. If election prediction does not interest you, I don't believe anyone is forcing you to click on this thread which will deal with election prediction.

However, if someone is indeed holding a gun to your head and making you read the thread just blink twice. I'll call the cops.

[Wild Cobra]

A new poll shows 9 - 10 people have made up their minds...if your still a true independent at this point, it's very likely you'll go with the devil you know...Statistically this is untrue. If they still don't support the (known) incumbent when he is only 90 days from re-election then the majority of the undecideds will break for the challenger.

I think I know what this hype is.

The leftist media is doing what ever they can to make Romney voters thing it's a waste of time to vote. I'll bet such tactics actually do shave a few fractions of a percent off.

[Nbadan]

Most of us know that Nate Silver (http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/) produces exceptionally high quality electoral college vote analysis. Another analyst that also does excellent quantitative E. C. vote analysis is Sam Wang of Princeton Election Consortium (http://election.princeton.edu/electoral-college-map/). He presently assigns 300 safe votes to Obama and 191 safe votes to Romney, with 47 tossups. Without tossups, he projects Obama 332, Romney 206. His prediction beat Nate's in 2008.

He is definitely worth following.

http://election.princeton.edu/wp-content/uploads/autographics/EV_map.png.

http://election.princeton.edu/electoral-college-map/

[Wild Cobra]

Ohio and Florida "Obama safe....?"

LOL...

LOL...

LOL...

LOL...

[Sense]

Ohio and Florida "Obama safe....?"

LOL...

LOL...

LOL...

LOL...

:rolleyes

[Wild Cobra]

:rolleyes
Are you saying the democrats finally got the voting machine rigging correct?

[Sense]

Are you saying the democrats finally got the voting machine rigging correct?

:lol

You guys sure know how to read "smiles".

[CosmicCowboy]

Most of us know that Nate Silver (http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/) produces exceptionally high quality electoral college vote analysis. Another analyst that also does excellent quantitative E. C. vote analysis is Sam Wang of Princeton Election Consortium (http://election.princeton.edu/electoral-college-map/). He presently assigns 300 safe votes to Obama and 191 safe votes to Romney, with 47 tossups. Without tossups, he projects Obama 332, Romney 206. His prediction beat Nate's in 2008.

He is definitely worth following.

http://election.princeton.edu/wp-content/uploads/autographics/EV_map.png.

http://election.princeton.edu/electoral-college-map/

:lmao

There is some extreme fantasizing going on with that map.

[leemajors]

Look out, Romney to "unleash" Trump to win over working class males!

http://www.breitbart.com/Big-Government/2012/08/05/Ed-Klein-Romney-Campaign-Ready-To-Unleash-Donald-Trump-To-Gain-Support-Of-Working-Class-Whites

[MannyIsGod]

:lmao

There is some extreme fantasizing going on with that map.

Both of the sites I look at have Florida and Ohio as going Democrat. They are closer than that map, but that map isn't really THAT far from what they depict at all.

[baseline bum]

Both of the sites I look at have Florida and Ohio as going Democrat. They are closer than that map, but that map isn't really THAT far from what they depict at all.

Dude, that map has Florida and Ohio as >97.5% chance of voting Obama. That sounds ridiculous to me.

[MannyIsGod]

I just don't think people should dismiss it because of that. It depends on what his methodology of selecting states is. He may think that even though its close there is little room for movement.

[ElNono]

Dude, that map has Florida and Ohio as >97.5% chance of voting Obama. That sounds ridiculous to me.

ehhh no. The 97.5% chance is that Dems pick up the electoral college votes for that state. It could just be a 4% voting margin for Barry, which in general is a fairly big margin given the specific state. Obviously, that can easily change if Mitt picks Rubio as running mate.

[Homeland Security]

Obama re-election is a lock. A lot of what used to be the Republican base spend their time building stockpiles of weapons and non-perishable food, and building contingency plans for a shadow government.

[Homeland Security]

:lol at GOP nominating Willard Willkie

[Wild Cobra]

Dude, that map has Florida and Ohio as >97.5% chance of voting Obama. That sounds ridiculous to me.
Absolutely ridiculous. They have been close states in the past. No way they are that certain of one a swing states outcome unless it's rigged. Only the electronic machines that can be programmed went democrat here:

http://i181.photobucket.com/albums/x262/Wild_Cobra/Politics/2004ohioelection.jpg

[ElNono]

http://i181.photobucket.com/albums/x262/Wild_Cobra/Politics/2004ohioelection.jpg

lol bush vs kerry

lol massive voter fraud

[Wild Cobra]

lol bush vs kerry
At a time when democrats are accusing that the electronic machines being rigged for Bush.

[ElNono]

At a time when democrats are accusing that the electronic machines being rigged for Bush.

that's what recounts are for... bush won fair and square...

Are dems trying to pass laws outlawing electronic machines?

[Wild Cobra]

Are dems trying to pass laws outlawing electronic machines?
Not that I've seen. I think they just went for rigging them instead.

[ElNono]

Not that I've seen.

So Dems are not complaining of massive voter fraud... thanks!

[Wild Cobra]

So Dems are not complaining of massive voter fraud... thanks!
Are not, and were not are two different things. Past and present you know.

What changed? they used to complain about how easily the machines were rigged. Now they don't. Could it be because now they use rigging to their advantage?

[ElNono]

What changed? they used to complain about how easily the machines were rigged. Now they don't. Could it be because now they use rigging to their advantage?

Didn't all those machines had a paper trail? Looks to me they were satisfied with the recount.

But do tell us how big bad blue is rigging elections now :lol

[MannyIsGod]

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/09/19/obamas-lead-looks-stronger-in-polls-that-include-cellphones/

Not surprising as this was discussed some in 2008, polls that include cell phones are stronger for Obama as polls that only include landlines undersample younger demographics and are more biased toward older populations which favors Romney.

If you want a more accurate poll you'll include cell phones. I wasn't polled at all in 2008 but this time around I've gotten a few calls from pollsters. I only have a cell phone.

[CosmicCowboy]

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/09/19/obamas-lead-looks-stronger-in-polls-that-include-cellphones/

Not surprising as this was discussed some in 2008, polls that include cell phones are stronger for Obama as polls that only include landlines undersample younger demographics and are more biased toward older populations which favors Romney.

If you want a more accurate poll you'll include cell phones. I wasn't polled at all in 2008 but this time around I've gotten a few calls from pollsters. I only have a cell phone.

I tell them all I don't want to participate. The questions piss me off. you can tell what their desired result is from how they phrase the questions.

[LnGrrrR]

I tell them all I don't want to participate. The questions piss me off. you can tell what their desired result is from how they phrase the questions.

"Do you think that Obama's plans to create death panels for your sick grandma are a) good or b) bad, because your grandma still loves you?"

"Given that Romney has fired many people while running a company, do you think he cares about poor people? Yes or no."

"Do you support Obama's ability to assassinate American citizens without a trial, or are you a dirty fucking hippie?"

"How long do you think it's been since Romney stopped beating his wife?"

[MannyIsGod]

I am pretty sure none of the major firms frame questions like that. :lol

[boutons_deux]

Poll BEFORE Gecko's latest gaffe.

Obama Has 8-Point Lead In Pew Poll; Big Advantage With Women, Blacks, Young

President Obama leads Republican Mitt Romney by 8 points nationally — 51 to 43 percent among likely voters — as the race heads into the final stretch, according to a new Pew Research Center poll released Wednesday.

Obama's advantage, particularly among women, blacks and voters younger than 30, puts him "in a strong position compared with past victorious presidential candidates," Pew reported.

Obama's lead at this point in the race, Pew President Andrew Kohut told NPR's Robert Siegel, is "stronger than the last three winning presidential candidates." Only Bill Clinton, running in both 1992 and 1996, had bigger leads in mid-September.

http://www.npr.org/blogs/itsallpolitics/2012/09/19/161424581/obama-opens-8-point-lead-in-pew-poll-big-advantage-with-women-blacks-young-voter

[Wild Cobra]

Didn't all those machines had a paper trail? Looks to me they were satisfied with the recount.

But do tell us how big bad blue is rigging elections now :lol
You forget the arguments four years ago and the reasons I bring this up over and over.

Democrats claimed these electronic machines were used to help republicans, and that they can be reprogrammed. The only places you see numbers bigger than the norm are for democrats. Not republicans. I will contend that the democrats claim was half right. They knew the programming could be altered, and did.

Again, are the democrats going to win Ohio this time by cheating?

[MannyIsGod]

The latest breakdown by Nate Silver shows that 17 out of the 19 times someone was leading in the polls at this point in the contest they won. The exceptions being Gore and Dewey.

[MannyIsGod]

:lmao

There is some extreme fantasizing going on with that map.

:lmao !!!!

[MannyIsGod]

http://electoral-vote.com/evp2012/Info/track-record.html
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/09/30/the-uncanny-accuracy-of-polling-averages-part-2-what-the-numbers-say/
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/10/03/the-uncanny-accuracy-of-polling-averages-part-3-this-time-its-different/
http://www.people-press.org/methodology/election-polling/gauging-the-accuracy-of-election-polls/

Darrin I even bought the info to you on this site and you still couldn't get it right. Not surprising. LOL @ "any undergrad"

[MannyIsGod]

You forget the arguments four years ago and the reasons I bring this up over and over.

Democrats claimed these electronic machines were used to help republicans, and that they can be reprogrammed. The only places you see numbers bigger than the norm are for democrats. Not republicans. I will contend that the democrats claim was half right. They knew the programming could be altered, and did.

Again, are the democrats going to win Ohio this time by cheating?

:lmao

[DarrinS]

Darrin I even bought the info to you on this site and you still couldn't get it right. Not surprising. LOL @ "any undergrad"

Any undergrad can produce Silver's results if they have good data. The data was good. No big whoop.

[DUNCANownsKOBE]

:lol we're studying Nate Silver's methods in a 400 level math class right now, and most people in this class are mindfucked by a lot of it.

:lmao:lmao:lmao @ "any undergrad"

[DarrinS]

:lol we're studying Nate Silver's methods in a 400 level math class right now, and most people in this class are mindfucked by a lot of it.

:lmao:lmao:lmao @ "any undergrad"


It's probably not even college level. I think in high school (or even middle school), they have problems like "There are 50 blue marbles and 47 red marbles in a bag. What are the odds of choosing a blue marble?".

[DUNCANownsKOBE]

If Nate Silver quits doing the fivethirtyeight blog and goes to do something else, there would be hedge funds lining up at his apartment to give him a 7 figure job. That "any undergrad" quote is one of the most ignorant things I've seen on the internet this election season.

[DUNCANownsKOBE]

It's probably not even college level. I think in high school (or even middle school), they have problems like "There are 50 blue marbles and 47 red marbles in a bag. What are the odds of choosing a blue marble?".

:lmao:lmao:lmao thinking that's as far as Silver's analysis goes

Did you do stuff like central limit theorem, mass functions and density functions in high school too?

[DarrinS]

You guys can continue to idolize him if you want. His work in baseball is probably a lot more interesting than this simple poll-averaging election winning odds.


It's butt simple

You can do it yourself here. http://www.270towin.com/simulation/

I ran a bunch of these and started realizing "Oh shit".



If you want to see the results from 10,000 trials, go here:

http://www.270towin.com/simulation/visualizer_2012.php

[DarrinS]

If Nate Silver quits doing the fivethirtyeight blog and goes to do something else, there would be hedge funds lining up at his apartment to give him a 7 figure job. That "any undergrad" quote is one of the most ignorant things I've seen on the internet this election season.


Undoubtedly. He's a smart dude. I just don't think his election "model" is all that interesting. If you do, so be it.

[DUNCANownsKOBE]

Undoubtedly. He's a smart dude. I just don't think his election "model" is all that interesting. If you do, so be it.

I never said it was "interesting" tbh. I'm not taking an advanced stats class because I find it interesting :lol, I'm taking it because I'm gonna be competing with Asians who crunch numbers with the best of 'em for jobs in I-banking and hedge funds. All I'm saying is it's by no means something "any undergrad" could do.

[DarrinS]

I never said it was "interesting" tbh. I'm not taking an advanced stats class because I find it interesting :lol, I'm taking it because I'm gonna be competing with Asians who crunch numbers with the best of 'em for jobs in I-banking and hedge funds. All I'm saying is it's by no means something "any undergrad" could do.


Perhaps it would be somewhat challenging for an undergrad to implement it, but the concept would be easily understood.

Good luck competing against that stereotype, btw.

[Bartleby]

It's probably not even college level. I think in high school (or even middle school), they have problems like "There are 50 blue marbles and 47 red marbles in a bag. What are the odds of choosing a blue marble?".

DarrinS going full WC and doubling down.

[DUNCANownsKOBE]

Perhaps it would be somewhat challenging for an undergrad to implement it, but the concept would be easily understood.

Good luck competing against that stereotype, btw.

Some concepts he uses (central limit theorem, distribution functions, etc.) are not concepts that by any stretch of the imagination any undergrad could easily understand.

And I've got the Judaism stereotype going for me tbh.

[ChumpDumper]

Darrin is going to spend the next four years hating on Silver for owning him without trying.

[scott]

Darrin clearly unfamiliar with the math skills of undergrads, tbh

[DarrinS]

Darrin clearly unfamiliar with the math skills of undergrads, tbh

Well, I did take the math requirements for engineering and not business or liberal arts majors, so maybe I'm not a fair judge.

[DarrinS]

Some concepts he uses (central limit theorem, distribution functions, etc.) are not concepts that by any stretch of the imagination any undergrad could easily understand.

And I've got the Judaism stereotype going for me tbh.


Undergrads don't understand distributions? If they don't, that's pretty sad.

[ChumpDumper]

Darrin is the Energizer bunny of butthurt.

[DarrinS]

Polling is a difficult enterprise nowadays. Some estimate that only about 10 percent of voters respond even to the best surveys, and the polls that take shortcuts pay for it with lower-still response rates, perhaps no better than 2 to 5 percent. The pollsters are making a leap of faith that the 10 percent of voters they can get on the phone and get to agree to participate are representative of the entire population.

[DarrinS]

Darrin is the Energizer bunny of butthurt.

Your contribution to this conversation is appreciated.

[ChumpDumper]

Your contribution to this conversation is appreciated.Your extended meltdown is appreciated. :toast

[MannyIsGod]

Darrin claims undergrads should have better statistical skills. Darrin then proceeds to display his lack of statistical knowledge.

You can't make this shit up.

[MannyIsGod]

Polling is a difficult enterprise nowadays. Some estimate that only about 10 percent of voters respond even to the best surveys, and the polls that take shortcuts pay for it with lower-still response rates, perhaps no better than 2 to 5 percent. The pollsters are making a leap of faith that the 10 percent of voters they can get on the phone and get to agree to participate are representative of the entire population.

Faith!!!! Pollsters are magic! Undergrads should understands stats and duplicate Nate Silver on a whim!

[DarrinS]

Polling is a difficult enterprise nowadays. Some estimate that only about 10 percent of voters respond even to the best surveys, and the polls that take shortcuts pay for it with lower-still response rates, perhaps no better than 2 to 5 percent. The pollsters are making a leap of faith that the 10 percent of voters they can get on the phone and get to agree to participate are representative of the entire population.

Faith!!!! Pollsters are magic! Undergrads should understands stats and duplicate Nate Silver on a whim!





How silly of me. I forgot to quote my source.




Polling is a difficult enterprise nowadays. Some estimate that only about 10 percent of voters respond even to the best surveys, and the polls that take shortcuts pay for it with lower-still response rates, perhaps no better than 2 to 5 percent. The pollsters are making a leap of faith that the 10 percent of voters they can get on the phone and get to agree to participate are representative of the entire population.

[MannyIsGod]

Well you finally found something where Nate Silver was wrong! Its not a leap of faith by any means. Would you like to explain to me how having decades of statistical backing constitutes a leap of faith?

[DarrinS]

You see, you would post something negative about anything I say, without actually reading what I'm saying.

I suppose you have a different view of that quote, now that you know it is Nate Silver's own words.

Pffft. Whatever.

[ChumpDumper]

I knew that was Silver.

What point do you think you made there, Darrin?

[DarrinS]

I knew that was Silver.


We all believe you.

[MannyIsGod]

Actually, you really just forgot to include context. Like for instance, this nugget further on down in that blog post.


My argument, rather, is this: we’ve about reached the point where if Mr. Romney wins, it can only be because the polls have been biased against him. Almost all of the chance that Mr. Romney has in the FiveThirtyEight forecast, about 16 percent to win the Electoral College, reflects this possibility.Yes, of course: most of the arguments that the polls are necessarily biased against Mr. Romney reflect little more than wishful thinking.

[ChumpDumper]

We all believe you.Just as we all believe you could do what Silver does.

Again, what point did you think you made there?

[MannyIsGod]

You see, you would post something negative about anything I say, without actually reading what I'm saying.

I suppose you have a different view of that quote, now that you know it is Nate Silver's own words.

Pffft. Whatever.

did my view change or did I say it was still wrong? LOL you thought you were going to catch me be inconsistent and you didn't. How's that for a gotcha! moment?

[Winehole23]

Again, what point did you think you made there?perhaps he thinks he made someone else look foolish -- an understandable wish on his part

[MannyIsGod]

Polling is a difficult enterprise nowadays. Some estimate that only about 10 percent of voters (http://www.people-press.org/2012/05/15/assessing-the-representativeness-of-public-opinion-surveys/) respond even to the best surveys, and the polls that take shortcuts pay for it with lower-still response rates, perhaps no better than 2 to 5 percent. The pollsters are making a leap of faith that the 10 percent of voters they can get on the phone and get to agree to participate are representative of the entire population. The polling was largely quite accurate in 2004, 2008 and 2010, but there is no guarantee that this streak will continue. Most of the “house effects” (http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/06/22/calculating-house-effects-of-polling-firms/) that you see introduced in the polls — the tendency of certain polling firms to show results that are consistently more favorable for either the Democrat or the Republican — reflect the different assumptions that pollsters make about how to get a truly representative sample and how to separate out the people who will really vote from ones who say they will, but won’t.But many of the pollsters are likely to make similar assumptions about how to measure the voter universe accurately. This introduces the possibility that most of the pollsters could err on one or another side — whether in Mr. Obama’s direction, or Mr. Romney’s. In a statistical sense, we would call this bias: that the polls are not taking an accurate sample of the voter population. If there is such a bias, furthermore, it is likely to be correlated across different states, especially if they are demographically similar. If either of the candidates beats his polls in Wisconsin, he is also likely to do so in Minnesota.
The FiveThirtyEight forecast accounts for this possibility. Its estimates of the uncertainty in the race are based on how accurate the polls have been under real-world conditions since 1968, and not the idealized assumption that random sampling error alone accounts for entire reason for doubt.
To be exceptionally clear: I do not mean to imply that the polls are biased in Mr. Obama’s favor. But there is the chance that they could be biased in either direction. If they are biased in Mr. Obama’s favor, then Mr. Romney could still win; the race is close enough. If they are biased in Mr. Romney’s favor, then Mr. Obama will win by a wider-than-expected margin, but since Mr. Obama is the favorite anyway, this will not change who sleeps in the White House on Jan. 20.
My argument, rather, is this: we’ve about reached the point where if Mr. Romney wins, it can only be because the polls have been biased against him. Almost all of the chance that Mr. Romney has in the FiveThirtyEight forecast, about 16 percent to win the Electoral College, reflects this possibility.
Yes, of course: most of the arguments that the polls are necessarily biased against Mr. Romney reflect little more than wishful thinking.
Nevertheless, these arguments are potentially more intellectually coherent than the ones that propose that the leader in the race is “too close to call.” It isn’t. If the state polls are right, then Mr. Obama will win the Electoral College. If you can’t acknowledge that after a day when Mr. Obama leads 19 out of 20 swing-state polls, then you should abandon the pretense that your goal is to inform rather than entertain the public.
But the state polls may not be right. They could be biased. Based on the historical reliability of polls, we put the chance that they will be biased enough to elect Mr. Romney at 16 percent.








[*=left]

[MannyIsGod]

Nate Silver uses the words "leap of faith" which when taken out of context make it look like a really bad comment. I think its a really poor choice of words to use becasue faith implies there is no proof. However, in the rest of the blog post Silver points to the historical accuracy of the polls and makes the comments that the model does account for a chance the pollsters are wrong. But the very fact that he also states that there is strong reason to believe the polls are correct is completely counter to any idea that believing they are correct is a "leap of faith".

[DUNCANownsKOBE]

Undergrads don't understand distributions? If they don't, that's pretty sad.
Distribution functions? No. Distribution functions involve calculus, which 95+% of all undergrads are terrified of.

[MannyIsGod]

Keep trying Darrin but you're not likely to succeed. I don't base my judgements on what people say based on who people are or what I want to believe. I leave that to people like you. Instead, I attempt to make rational judgements based on the best data available. You might indeed catch me making a poor judgement at some point, however. If and when you do, I will concede where I was incorrect and proceed to reevaluate what I've said or what conclusions I've come to and I'll be better off for being shown where I was wrong.

Being proven wrong isn't a bad thing. Its one more step into finding out whats correct.

[DarrinS]

Distribution functions? No. Distribution functions involve calculus, which 95+% of all undergrads are terrified of.

You can take calculus in HS.

[MannyIsGod]

Well you finally found something where Nate Silver was wrong! Its not a leap of faith by any means. Would you like to explain to me how having decades of statistical backing constitutes a leap of faith?


You see, you would post something negative about anything I say, without actually reading what I'm saying.

I suppose you have a different view of that quote, now that you know it is Nate Silver's own words.

Pffft. Whatever.

:lol

http://petcaretips.net/Wylie_Trap.jpg

[DUNCANownsKOBE]

You can take calculus in HS.

I'm well aware of that. It doesn't change the fact that 95+% of all undergrads are terrified of calculus.

I'm saying this as an undergrad who sees example of this phobia on a daily basis.

[MannyIsGod]

I'm well aware of that. It doesn't change the fact that 95+% of all undergrads are terrified of calculus.

I'm saying this as an undergrad who sees example of this phobia on a daily basis.

Most undergrads can't do algebra well much less calculus. But yeah, any undergrad can be Nate Silver!!!!

[MannyIsGod]

TBH election prediction models were all the rage on facebook among undergrads. Everyone was making theirs and posting them. All amazingly accurate.

And yet, Darrin was still wrong.

[Winehole23]

Nate Silver uses the words "leap of faith" which when taken out of context make it look like a really bad comment. I think its a really poor choice of words to use becasue faith implies there is no proof. However, in the rest of the blog post Silver points to the historical accuracy of the polls and makes the comments that the model does account for a chance the pollsters are wrong. But the very fact that he also states that there is strong reason to believe the polls are correct is completely counter to any idea that believing they are correct is a "leap of faith".yet again, Darrin hangs his case on a weak semantic peg. as usual, the peg broke.

[MannyIsGod]

He did find a place where Nate Silver was wrong. He just sadly projected his methods of judgement onto me. Darrin should not make the mistake of thinking that the rest of us are as lazy and intellectually dishonest as he.

[DUNCANownsKOBE]

Most undergrads can't do algebra well much less calculus. But yeah, any undergrad can be Nate Silver!!!!

rofl exactly. I used to tutor college algebra and the experience made me lose a little faith in mankind.

Nevertheless, they understood Nate Silver's model very well.

[MannyIsGod]

rofl exactly. I used to tutor college algebra and the experience made me lose a little faith in mankind.

The classes I have to take are split between the geography department and the earth and planetary sciences dept at my school. When you get a class that is cross listed its easy as shit to find out who is from EPS and who is from Geography. The Geography people are the ones who get scared about having to use scientific notation or whenever a greek letter is used in an equation. Its pretty damn sad.

[ElNono]

When zoo monkeys throw feces against the wall, it's kinda like the same thing Silver is doing, tbh

[DUNCANownsKOBE]

The classes I have to take are split between the geography department and the earth and planetary sciences dept at my school. When you get a class that is cross listed its easy as shit to find out who is from EPS and who is from Geography. The Geography people are the ones who get scared about having to use scientific notation or whenever a greek letter is used in an equation. Its pretty damn sad.
I'll bet all of them understood the central limit theorem, density functions, and confidence intervals though.

[DarrinS]

When zoo monkeys throw feces against the wall, it's kinda like the same thing Silver is doing, tbh


This is exactly what I was arguing.


Continue with your self-congratulatory circle jerk.


I still have no criticism of Nate Silver or any of his methods. I don't even disagree with the Silver quote I posted earlier. I just tried to find something that sounded similar to something I would say, just to see if Manny would criticize it. Manny didn't disappoint.

[ElNono]

This is exactly what I was arguing.


Continue with your self-congratulatory circle jerk.


I still have no criticism of Nate Silver or any of his methods. I don't even disagree with the Silver quote I posted earlier. I just tried to find something that sounded similar to something I would say, just to see if Manny would criticize it. Manny didn't disappoint.

chill out... it was blue, as in sarcasm...

[MannyIsGod]

This is exactly what I was arguing.


Continue with your self-congratulatory circle jerk.


I still have no criticism of Nate Silver or any of his methods. I don't even disagree with the Silver quote I posted earlier. I just tried to find something that sounded similar to something I would say, just to see if Manny would criticize it. Manny didn't disappoint.

Except that in order to get me to criticize it you had to pull it completely out of context and change the meaning. When you read that isolated section you removed from the article you make it seem as though pollsters are acting on really poor information and there is large reason to be skeptical of what they are saying. Yet, the point of the blog post Silver wrote wasn't to cast doubt on the polls but to point out that their chance of error was small.

Nate Silver goes on to say that if you're expecting the polls to be wrong you're engaging in wishful thinking!!!! Was your argument that you yourself were engaging in wishful thinking, Darrin?


No, of course it wasn't. So how the fuck are you going to argue that you were simply making the same point as Silver?

[LnGrrrR]

:lmao

There is some extreme fantasizing going on with that map.

:lmao

[LnGrrrR]

Perhaps it would be somewhat challenging for an undergrad to implement it, but the concept would be easily understood.

A lot of concepts are easy to grasp and hard to implement.

[ChumpDumper]

There is, of course, an element of faith in polltaking. Just turns out that with a lot of work, that faith is fulfilled and therefore justified.

[ChumpDumper]

I still have no criticism of Nate Silver or any of his methods.Then why are you trying so damn hard to discredit and minimize him?

[DarrinS]

Except that in order to get me to criticize it you had to pull it completely out of context and change the meaning. When you read that isolated section you removed from the article you make it seem as though pollsters are acting on really poor information and there is large reason to be skeptical of what they are saying. Yet, the point of the blog post Silver wrote wasn't to cast doubt on the polls but to point out that their chance of error was small.

Nate Silver goes on to say that if you're expecting the polls to be wrong you're engaging in wishful thinking!!!! Was your argument that you yourself were engaging in wishful thinking, Darrin?


No, of course it wasn't. So how the fuck are you going to argue that you were simply making the same point as Silver?


Uh, oh. I know I'm in trouble when Manny busts out the big, bold fonts.

[ChumpDumper]

Darrin, you can't even convince yourself that you're fine with Nate Silver.

[DarrinS]

Darrin, you can't even convince yourself that you're fine with Nate Silver.

http://www.midwestsportsfans.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/02/epic-treadmill-fail.gif

[ChumpDumper]

http://www.midwestsportsfans.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/02/epic-treadmill-fail.gifWhat point were you trying to make with that gif, Darrin?

It might not be accomplishing what you want.

[DarrinS]

What point were you trying to make with that gif, Darrin?

It might not be accomplishing what you want.


You're right. The gif is funny, while your posts are tired, irritating, and lame.

[Winehole23]

when Darrin lays a turd he likes to cover it like a cat, using his words for litter. in the process, he's apt to drop a few more accidentally.

:popcorn

[Th'Pusher]

when Darrin lays a turd he likes to cover it like a cat, using his words for litter. in the process, he's apt to drop a few more accidentally.

:popcorn
:lol

[MannyIsGod]

Uh, oh. I know I'm in trouble when Manny busts out the big, bold fonts.

As opposed to posting animated gifs, correct?

The use of that bolding and large font was completely for your benefit. You've shown yourself to be incapable of picking out the main point in the text you are reading. With this in mind and in order to avoid your confusion, I highlighted and exaggerated the main points in my post so as to make them extremely clear to you.

Once again, I'm not sure what you're trying to prove by continuing this. Do you see anyone posting here agreeing with you? Why do you think that is?

[clambake]

Ohio and Florida "Obama safe....?"

LOL...

LOL...

LOL...

LOL...
har har

[ChumpDumper]

You're right. The gif is funny, while your posts are tired, irritating, and lame.You didn't answer the question.

You never answer the question.

lol butthurt

[coyotes_geek]

???

Obama has raised double the money that Mitt has. He'll easily outspend Romney by a wide margin.

http://www.opensecrets.org/pres12/candidate.php?id=N00000286

http://www.opensecrets.org/pres12/candidate.php?id=N00009638

Final tally here (http://www.opensecrets.org/pres12/index.php?ql3#out). Obama outspends Romney by $200 million.

[boutons_deux]

Final tally here (http://www.opensecrets.org/pres12/index.php?ql3#out). Obama outspends Romney by $200 million.

no, Red outside spending 3x Blue outside spending.

A small ray of hope that the 1% and UCA $Bs can't, yet, overcome the non-E-A, non-male, non-hetero demographics. And not only did the Red $Bs not buy the WH, they lost nearly every where else, too. Extremely low ROI.

[Winehole23]

no, Red outside spending 3x Blue outside spending.so, Obama did outspend Romney.

[TeyshaBlue]

rofl exactly. I used to tutor college algebra and the experience made me lose a little faith in mankind.



:lol

[MannyIsGod]

Final tally here (http://www.opensecrets.org/pres12/index.php?ql3#out). Obama outspends Romney by $200 million.

Good call.

[Nbadan]

Here is another tally......turns out that Romney was the one with 47% of leeches....

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/lv?key=0AjYj9mXElO_QdHpla01oWE1jOFZRbnhJZkZpVFNKeV E