Why did Obama panic?

[Homeland Security]

Look, I love campaigns where opponents accuse one another of murder, hate, and a secret plan to reintroduce Negro slavery as much as the next guy, but why did the Obama folks choose to unload everything in freaking July?

Voters do not have long attention spans, people. Come late October, people will be saying, "yeah, yeah, I know, Mitt Romney actually invented the H1N1 virus and gave Osama bin Laden the idea for 9/11. I'm bored with that story. Where's my free shit, Obama?"

I want to know why in a campaign where Obama is showing a slight lead in the polls his campaign pulled the equivalent of that San Diego July 4th display. Unwise.

[CosmicCowboy]

Because he can't run on his record.

[Yonivore]

And, starting the day after the Republican Convention, Mitty Romney will be free to unleash the financial war chest he's been amassing.

I would expect a non-stop barrage of pro-Romney, anti-Obama political ads and messaging (from all angles) beginning the moment Romney is officially nominated.

[SnakeBoy]

That's an interesting question and one I heard being discussed on Morning Joe not long ago. The, mostly liberal, comentators were saying that when they speak with those within the campaign privately the level of nervousness was "palpable" although things look pretty good for them from the public polling. They speculated that there is something within their internal polling that has them quite worried.

[Homeland Security]

Then, on November 7th conservatives will joyously celebrate their hard-fought victory in which the train heading off the fiscal cliff will slow from 150 mph to 140 mph and the despised ObamaCare will receive a few pragmatic tweaks.

[Yonivore]

Then, on November 7th conservatives will joyously celebrate their hard-fought victory in which the train heading off the fiscal cliff will slow from 150 mph to 140 mph and the despised ObamaCare will receive a few pragmatic tweaks.
Obama has ignored the cliff. At least, Romney acknowledges its existence.

And, I think completely shit-canning Obamacare is a bit more than a "tweak."

[Homeland Security]

Obama has ignored the cliff. At least, Romney acknowledges its existence.
Obama: "Cliff? What cliff? AAAHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH"
Romney: "Hey, look at that cliff we're about to goAAAHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH"


And, I think completely shit-canning Obamacare is a bit more than a "tweak."
:lmao Yay, we repealed ObamaCare! Let's replace it with this new Heritage Foundation-approved nation health care plan that holds freeloaders accountable!

[CosmicCowboy]

Obama has ignored the cliff. At least, Romney acknowledges its existence.

And, I think completely shit-canning Obamacare is a bit more than a "tweak."

They won't have the votes in the Senate to shitcan Obamacare even if Romney wins the Presidency.

[Yonivore]

They won't have the votes in the Senate to shitcan Obamacare even if Romney wins the Presidency.
That's why we need to win the Senate too.

But, as plan B, If I were Romney, I would just do what Obama's been doing and not enforce the law. Issue waivers. Direct my Health and Human Services Secretary to stand down.

[Homeland Security]

That's why we need to win the Senate too.

But, as plan B, If I were Romney, I would just do what Obama's been doing and not enforce the law. Issue waivers. Direct my Health and Human Services Secretary to stand down.
60 Republicans in the Senate is credible. BTW, in the world where that is true, the sky is sort of a pinkish-orange, maybe coral.

[Homeland Security]

That's why we need to win the Senate too.

But, as plan B, If I were Romney, I would just do what Obama's been doing and not enforce the law. Issue waivers. Direct my Health and Human Services Secretary to stand down.
Yes, that guy running as Mitt Romney is actually Ron Paul in a convincing biomechanical costume. The guy who was governor of Massachusetts is locked in an electrical closet in Wharton, TX.

[SnakeBoy]

And, I think completely shit-canning Obamacare is a bit more than a "tweak."

I think if you look at our total unfunded liabilities Obamcare isn't much more than a blip on the radar.

[ElNono]

Couldn't they pull it off with 51 votes through reconciliation?

[Yonivore]

I think if you look at our total unfunded liabilities Obamcare isn't much more than a blip on the radar.
I didn't suggest it was; I was responding to the specific point that Romney was going to simply "tweak" Obamacare. Although, left as is, Obamacare would probably grow to the size of other unfunded liabilities -- such as Medicare, Medicaid, Social Security, Welfare, etc...

[Yonivore]

60 Republicans in the Senate is credible. BTW, in the world where that is true, the sky is sort of a pinkish-orange, maybe coral.
Harry Reid no longer the Majority Leader is entirely possible.

I guess you forget how many arms had to be twisted just to get Obamacare past that body. Cornhusker Kickback? Louisiana Purchase?

[SnakeBoy]

I didn't suggest it was; I was responding to the specific point that Romney was going to simply "tweak" Obamacare. Although, left as is, Obamacare would probably grow to the size of other unfunded liabilities -- such as Medicare, Medicaid, Social Security, Welfare, etc...

Ah ok, I missed the context.

[mercos]

The Obama campaign went all out early on in order to define who Romney is before he had a chance to do so himself. Once a narrative about a candidate is created, it is hard to change. That strategy has clearly worked, as Romney is viewed poorly in most polls, and Obama was building a steady lead through the summer. I don't think Romney can get elected by getting people to vote FOR him, rather he has to get people to vote AGAINST Obama, and that was his strategy pretty much from day 1.

[Homeland Security]

The Obama campaign went all out early on in order to define who Romney is before he had a chance to do so himself. Once a narrative about a candidate is created, it is hard to change. That strategy has clearly worked, as Romney is viewed poorly in most polls, and Obama was building a steady lead through the summer. I don't think Romney can get elected by getting people to vote FOR him, rather he has to get people to vote AGAINST Obama, and that was his strategy pretty much from day 1.
In a weak economy, the incumbent should go negative against the challenger to turn it into a low-turnout election where independents stay home and the incumbent can win with the base and the ground game. However, I don't think you unload everything you have three and a half months out. That "Romney killed an innocent lady by taking away her healthcare" ad is something you run the week before the election, not early August. Where do you go from here?

This notion that you can establish a firm narrative against a challenger when people are only barely paying attention... I guess that's why they pay the strategists the big bucks but... wow, I have my doubts. I suppose they thought they should play their money advantage until the RNC when Romney can start unloading his war chest, but that strategy strikes me as trying to mitigate a weakness rather than playing to a strength.

[SnakeBoy]

The Obama campaign went all out early on in order to define who Romney is before he had a chance to do so himself. Once a narrative about a candidate is created, it is hard to change. That strategy has clearly worked, as Romney is viewed poorly in most polls, and Obama was building a steady lead through the summer. I don't think Romney can get elected by getting people to vote FOR him, rather he has to get people to vote AGAINST Obama, and that was his strategy pretty much from day 1.

Doesn't look like things have changed that much to me...
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/romney_favorableunfavorable-1134.html

Maybe that's what the Obama campiagn is worried about. Romney is expected to be able to out spend Obama the rest of the way.

[ElNono]

In a weak economy, the incumbent should go negative against the challenger to turn it into a low-turnout election where independents stay home and the incumbent can win with the base and the ground game. However, I don't think you unload everything you have three and a half months out. That "Romney killed an innocent lady by taking away her healthcare" ad is something you run the week before the election, not early August. Where do you go from here?

This notion that you can establish a firm narrative against a challenger when people are only barely paying attention... I guess that's why they pay the strategists the big bucks but... wow, I have my doubts. I suppose they thought they should play their money advantage until the RNC when Romney can start unloading his war chest, but that strategy strikes me as trying to mitigate a weakness rather than playing to a strength.

I think they realize they're much less well funded than the opposition and will be much more selective on how the funds are applied in the smear campaign... with that in mind, I think they were testing the waters to see if that narrative would pick up some steam. They're going to have to do that because they just don't have enough money to toss a lot of shit to see what sticks.... at least not as much as the other side.

[Yonivore]

I also don't think you can overstate the damage he's done to his brand by denigrating small businesses.

These people sit in Rotary Club meetings around the country and talk about this shit. Whether it's a baker in Virginia (http://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing-room/news/244053-bakery-receives-bump-from-rnc-after-turning-down-biden-visit-), a wind farm owner (http://www.npr.org/blogs/itsallpolitics/2012/08/15/158884594/obamas-iowa-hosts-say-theyll-pray-for-him-but-they-wont-vote-for-him) or beer tent concessionaire (http://washingtonexaminer.com/angry-beer-tent-owner-obama-cost-me-25000-yesterday/article/2504879) in Iowa (And this is just one day of campaigning at places the Obama/Biden campaign CHOSE to visit).

I think Obama has energized a constituency that not only votes but also has influence in their respective communities and, it's being witnessed in a big way, across the country.

[Oh, Gee!!]

three anecdotes is a groundswell of course.

[Yonivore]

three anecdotes is a groundswell of course.
Three anecdotes from three businesses the Obama/Biden campaign chose to use as photo ops, in one day. I'd say, yes, it's indicative. You would have thought the campaign could have found Obama-friendly businesses to visit. Perhaps they are rare.

The instances of small businesses across the country that are openly renouncing Obama's redistributionist pap are fairly common...if you're inclined to look.

[Oh, Gee!!]

The instances of small businesses across the country that are openly renouncing Obama's redistributionist pap are fairly common...if you're inclined to look.

three and counting:lol

[Homeland Security]

three anecdotes is a groundswell of course.

Well, say Obama was up by exactly two votes in Iowa and one vote in Virginia. If those three people change their votes, Romney is now leading in those states and that's 21 electoral votes changing hands. By doing simple math, Romney then just needs to change the votes of 100 more people and he'll win the Electoral College 700 to -162. LANDSLIDE!!!!!

[Homeland Security]

Math

[Yonivore]

Speaking of bakeries and math...


j0ItOLp5e84

A nice explanation of the Health Insurance Tax (HIT) that will be implemented, as part of Obamacare, in 2014.

[ElNono]

Speaking of important centered youtubes...


hZN565uhnGc

[boutons_deux]

I also don't think you can overstate the damage he's done to his brand by denigrating small businesses.



right, Yoni PROVING the Dems are anti-small-business by Fox Repug Propaganda quote-twisting.

deNIGRAting? Go Yoni! :lol

It's Gecko/Repugs who want to kill wind/solar tax incentives (mostly small businesses as installars/maintainers). eg, windy Iowa's Repug gov said Gecko stabs him in the back with Gecko's killing tax breaks.

[SnakeBoy]

Well, say Obama was up by exactly two votes in Iowa and one vote in Virginia. If those three people change their votes, Romney is now leading in those states and that's 21 electoral votes changing hands. By doing simple math, Romney then just needs to change the votes of 100 more people and he'll win the Electoral College 700 to -162. LANDSLIDE!!!!!

Just use the swingometer

http://unlikelyvoter.com/swingometer/electoral-college-swingometer/

[Wild Cobra]

Look, I love campaigns where opponents accuse one another of murder, hate, and a secret plan to reintroduce Negro slavery as much as the next guy, but why did the Obama folks choose to unload everything in freaking July?

Tactics.

They are seeing now, what is effective and what isn't. Next month, they will stop using the tactics that aren't working and focus on the tactics that work. Most the people who pay little attention to politics will forget the things said months past by election day.

[Yonivore]

three and counting:lol
I didn't know there was a concept to explain what we're witnessing...

"Preference Cascade (http://www.ideasinactiontv.com/tcs_daily/2002/03/patriotism-and-preferences.html)"


Such regimes have little legitimacy, but they spend a lot of effort making sure that citizens don’t realize the extent to which their fellow-citizens dislike the regime. If the secret police and the censors are doing their job, 99% of the populace can hate the regime and be ready to revolt against it – but no revolt will occur because no one realizes that everyone else feels the same way.

This works until something breaks the spell, and the discontented realize that their feelings are widely shared, at which point the collapse of the regime may seem very sudden to outside observers – or even to the citizens themselves. Claims after the fact that many people who seemed like loyal apparatchiks really loathed the regime are often self-serving, of course. But they’re also often true: Even if one loathes the regime, few people have the force of will to stage one-man revolutions, and when preferences are sufficiently falsified, each dissident may feel that he or she is the only one, or at least part of a minority too small to make any difference.
How does this relate to the Obama regime?

Well, over the past couple of months, people have discovered, it's okay to strongly disapprove of Barack Obama (http://www.humanevents.com/2012/05/25/romney-obama-and-the-2012-preference-cascade/).


His popularity has always been buttressed by the conviction – very aggressively pushed by his supporters – that disapproval of his personal or official conduct is immoral. You’re presumptively “racist” if you disagree with him, or at least a greedy tool of the Evil Rich, or a “Tea Party extremist.”

A negative mirror image of this narrative was installed around Mitt Romney, who is supposedly a fat-cat extremist (and, thanks to the insidious War On Mormons, a religious nut) who nobody likes… even though large numbers of people in many different states voted for him in the primaries. Of course he has his critics, and I’m not seeking to dismiss the intensity or sincerity of that criticism… but the idea was to make Romney supporters feel isolated going into the general election, particularly the people who don’t really get involved in primary elections.

Both of those convergent narratives began crumbling this week: Obama is deeply vulnerable, and his campaign has no real answer to criticism of his record – they’ve even tried floating an outright fraud, the now-infamous Rex Nutting charts that presented Obama as some kind of fiscal hawk. (Stop laughing – major media figures took this garbage seriously for a couple of days, and Team Obama did push it.) Major Democrats, beginning with Newark mayor Cory Booker, expressed criticism of the Obama campaign… and the Left reacted with shrieking hysteria and vows of personal destruction for the “traitors.”

Meanwhile, Mitt Romney effectively presented both substantive criticism of Obama, and a positive agenda. Attacks on his business record that were supposed to destroy him through class-warfare tactics failed to draw blood. The idea that he can win became widely accepted. That doesn’t mean he won the 2012 argument… but unlike Barack Obama, he is offering one.

It happened fast, as preference cascades always do.
And, the media is beginning to catch the wave (http://www.weeklystandard.com/blogs/media-starts-lay-down-markers-romney-victory_646465.html)...


It’s best not to extrapolate too much from a few examples, but it’s fair to say that Washington insiders are reading the tea leaves and increasingly preparing for a Romney victory — especially following Friday’s bad economic news. The danger for Obama is that in political campaigns perception can quickly become reality. If influential liberals such as Dowd suddenly have no problem saying Obama appears to be in over his head, pretty soon everyone will be pointing out the obvious. Thus far, Obama’s meteoric rise has been largely dependent on a press that went straight from beat sweeteners to beatification. If the press turns on the president, the Obama campaign may not know what to do.
Faster please.

[boutons_deux]

Panic?

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/

DC conservatives, sucking up to the fraud Ryan as some kind of economic guru, and Gecko's transition team are counting on a Gecko win, but they need a LOT MORE electoral votes.

[boutons_deux]

“Gallup’s daily tracking poll shows the number of undecided voters hovering between 6 percent and 8 percent —compared with 11 percent at this point in 2008. An NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll put the percentage of undecided voters at 3 percent, down from 12 percent in late July 2008. A Pew survey found 5 percent didn’t know who they’d vote for, half of the number at this point in 2008.”

http://www.theblaze.com/blog/2012/08/09/poll-undecided-voters-disappearing/

that means the $B the 1% is gonna spend on Gecko/Ryan has the extremely difficult job of getting the tiny undecided remaining, and much worse, getting enough of the Obama majority to switch to Gecko/Ryan.

Yoni, you're F U C K E D !

P A N I C much ? :lol

[boutons_deux]

Why Romney's Panicked Campaign May Pander Even Harder to the Far Right

http://www.alternet.org/files/styles/story_image/public/story_images/romney_puppet.jpg

Mitt Romney, a corporate takeover executive in the private sector, is now in full political makeover mode as he campaigns for president, starting with his attention-deflecting choice of radical U.S. Rep. Paul Ryan as his running mate.

Washington insiders recognize the symptoms of a panicked campaign and see that the attempted makeover is not complete—and won’t be until the Republican National Convention adjourns and the fall campaign begins. And so we are seeing seemingly bizarre musings from known GOP ideologues trying to fill in Romney’s blank pages.

Fast-forward to today, when the Romney campaign emerged weakened from a bruising primary, where right-wingers correctly knew that his record as Massachusetts governor was even more liberal than anyone in the GOP establishment wanted to admit—pro-choice, anti-guns, pro-gay, raising taxes, and more, according to McCain’s research [5].

Romney, the corporate takeover executive, was smart enough to know that his campaign needed a makeover. Enter Ryan as the vice-presidential choice. But the GOP’s vacuous and detail-averse nominee also telegraphed to insiders that his campaign wasn’t just troubled, but susceptible to pressure and lobbying.

Thus, within 48 hours of naming Ryan, one of DC’s most opportunistic Republicans smelled blood and made a calculated move to push Romney toward a more isolationist foreign policy by breaking from the GOP orthodoxy of never cutting the defense budget.

But will Romney’s need for a makeover lead to a full-blown takeover by arch right-wingers, such as Norquist? Such behavior, though it seems like political inside ball, is even more reason to keep this contingent of Republicans away from any lever of power.

http://www.alternet.org/print/why-romneys-panicked-campaign-may-pander-even-harder-far-right

yes, Gecko, and his PAC of Swift Boaters, will run a very different, extremely nasty campaign after the convention. It will make his whine to Obama to raise the level of the campaign as slimey and dishonest as his tax evasions, residency shenaigans, sicko secretiveness, and predatory capitalism.

[howbouthemspurs]

Well this thread is stupid...