Even computers underrate the Spurs

[ace3g]

ESPN released its predictions for the upcoming season yesterday, with a panel of 100 experts and affiliates projecting the Spurs to finish third in the Western Conference with 54 victories, while an accompanying statistical analysis from Basketball Prospectus has them taking fifth with 51.7 victories.

Albeit clinically done, it’s a somewhat puzzling result considering that would place them behind not only Denver but Minnesota, which is projected to improve by a whopping 16 games. We’ll just have to see how everything pans out — heaven forbid that a preseason prediction would be incorrect — but a look at BP’s past predictions with a different formula reveals that even computers tend to underrate the Spurs.

http://blog.mysanantonio.com/spursnation/2012/08/22/even-computers-underrate-the-spurs/

[PDXSpursFan]

3rd on the west with 54 victories sounds realistic this year, tbh.

[Kidd K]

51 games is clearly a joke unless there's some injury factor involved and they expect multiple key players to miss an assload of time. Otherwise SA is not winning less than 54-55 games imo.

T-Wolves are actually going to be good. They've been tanking, not actually struggling. The Kings and Hornets have been intentionally tanking too. Either one of those teams could take a "miraculous leap in the standings", and it won't be magically due to the guy they just drafted.

Team do that shit all the time in the NBA. Bulls did it recently to get Rose, Kings have been doing it for 2-3 years now, Hornets have done it for 2 years now, Wolves have done it for 2 years. Pistons did it last year. 76ers did it the year before last.

Some teams like the Bobcats and Wizards are just legit terrible though.

[racm]

Some of their models forget to assume:

Pop is an amazing coach (who makes some questionable decisions, but which coach doesn't?)

Kawhi = beast

The Spurs system is amazing at making a team better than the sum of its parts.

[Outlier]

Why in the world would the T-Wolves be tanking last year? They didn't have their own pick. They just flat out sucked without Rubio.

[therealtruth]

The Spurs are regular season kings. It's the playoffs that matter.

[racm]

Why in the world would the T-Wolves be tanking last year? They didn't have their own pick. They just flat out sucked without Rubio.

Truth bomb, even Love couldn't carry that sad sack group into the playoffs.

Minny without Love = negative wins.

[mosdef17]

It would be interesting to know how a computer would treat Minnesota when making predictions, they have so many question marks entering this upcoming season. What will Roy be like? Do you assume his production will be similar too his last season in the league? Do you assume AK47 picks up where he left off? How does Rubio come back after his ACL?

T'Wolves may have the biggest gap of any team in the league between their best and worst case records. If everything falls into line you could see them winning 50 games, but if it all falls apart they may end up winning 30.