CU forecasters predict a Romney presidency

[SnakeBoy]

CU forecasters predict a Romney presidency
Posted: 08/22/2012 08:02:09 AM MDT
August 22, 2012 3:41 PM GMTUpdated: 08/22/2012 09:41:44 AM MDTThe Associated PressAssociated Press

DENVER—Two University of Colorado professors have devised a model to predict who will win the presidential election under current economic circumstances. The victor, they say, will be Republican Mitt Romney.
The model uses economic indicators from all 50 states to predict the race's outcome. The forecast calls for Romney to win 320 electoral votes out of 538. It says Romney will also win virtually every state currently considered a swing state, including Colorado.

The professors who created the model, Ken Bickers from CU-Boulder and Michael Berry from CU-Denver, say it correctly forecast every winner of the electoral since 1980.

They warn the model does not account for sudden changes in the economy or unexpected developments in states split 50-50. Polls in many states, including Colorado, show a virtually deadlocked race.

[CosmicCowboy]

I saw that.

It carries no weight with me.

[ElNono]

What's the Vegas line at?

[CosmicCowboy]

What's the Vegas line at?

still Obama 65%

[ElNono]

still Obama 65%

thanks

[mavs>spurs]

Yeah I'd listen to the money before any of these polling agencies. People generally make the right decision when it comes to their money.

[Wild Cobra]

I saw that.

It carries no weight with me.
Same here. It's like global warming models, too many variables. You can make it fit the variables you have accounted for, but there is always something else not expected that comes along.

[mavs>spurs]

There's this one betting website that my economics professor used to accurately predict every single state in the last election. Can't remember what it was called.

[Winehole23]

Intrade (http://electoralmap.net/2012/2008_election.php)

[mavs>spurs]

Ah that was it. Yeah intrade tells the true story.

[Winehole23]

http://www.intrade.com/v4/markets/contract/?contractId=743474

[Winehole23]

money doesn't lie, right?

[mavs>spurs]

I imagine those stats will change though up until the election. I think romney is biding his time to throw out obama's dirty laundry.

[mavs>spurs]

money doesn't lie, right?

true. whatever that site says right before the election is EXACTLY what will happen.

[CosmicCowboy]

I imagine those stats will change though up until the election. I think romney is biding his time to throw out obama's dirty laundry.

I don't know about the dirty laundry but a lot can change before the election.

[mavs>spurs]

^he's going to call obama out for every false promise he hasn't kept by bombarding him with ads that flash back to 08 and remind us just what all he lied about. and he's got all that campaign money to do it.

[Koolaid_Man]

^he's going to call obama out for every false promise he hasn't kept by bombarding him with ads that flash back to 08 and remind us just what all he lied about. and he's got all that campaign money to do it.


Hi Tyson long time no hear...quick question old friend....Do you still swing both ways?

[Latarian Milton]

black bald son of a bitch never lives up to his words tbh i told u guys as early as 4yrs ago that the kenyan n!gger ain't gonna be a good president by any means and it's beyond possible to fix the shit in one 4-yr term like the n!gger proclaimed

[boutons_deux]

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/author/nate-silver/

[ElNono]

Does it matter who wins anyways? They're both cut from the same cloth...

[boutons_deux]

It makes HUGE difference, in economic and social policy.

I say Gecko/Ryan attack Iran in foreign policy, why not restraining Petraeus' murder squads.

[TheProfessor]

Does it matter who wins anyways? They're both cut from the same cloth...
Not when it comes to the Supreme Court.

[Wild Cobra Kai]

Akin.

[Th'Pusher]

Not when it comes to the Supreme Court.

This. If for no other reason, this is why independents should vote for Obama.

[Wild Cobra]

This. If for no other reason, this is why independents should vote for Obama.
WTF...

Really?

[Th'Pusher]

WTF...

Really?

Correct. Obama will nominate better appointees to the SCOTUS imo.

[symple19]

How many justices are expected to be replaced in the next term?

[Th'Pusher]

How many justices are expected to be replaced in the next term?

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/06/28/us/presidential-election-could-reshape-an-aging-supreme-court.html

[symple19]

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/06/28/us/presidential-election-could-reshape-an-aging-supreme-court.html

:tu

Didn't realize there were that many old-timers. Ginsburg I knew, but I guess justices in their early 70s don't strike me as being "old"...relative to that particular job, anyway

Interestingly, although I've never voted Democratic for Pres, I've also never (IIRC) voted Republican for a judge position. Hard-core conservatives, well, conservatives in general, scare the hell out of me when doffed in a black robe.

Still, no way that would get me to vote for Obama. Of course, I'm not voting for Romney, either

I'm done with the two established parties

[mavs>spurs]

Obama slipping according to intrade. Big swing towards romney over the weekend.

[Fabbs]

The professors who created the model, Ken Bickers from CU-Boulder and Michael Berry from CU-Denver, say it correctly forecast every winner of the electoral since 1980.
Have/can Bickers and Berry document their claim?
Seems like we would have heard this before the last election if by then they were truly up to 7 straight. Or were they too crushed to announce they knew Barrah was going to smoke McBain and Dingbat?

[ElNono]

Obama slipping according to intrade. Big swing towards romney over the weekend.

Supposedly, there's always a bump both on the VP selection and when the Conventions start... we'll see if it fades like it did with Palin last election...

[mavs>spurs]

I thought the bump usually came after the conventions? they haven't even started yet, tbh..i'm hoping it's a sign of more things to come.

[Fabbs]

Supposedly, there's always a bump both on the VP selection and when the Conventions start... we'll see if it fades like it did with Palin last election...
Is Paul Ryan going to use stimulus money for transportation to the convention? :lol

[ElNono]

I thought the bump usually came after the conventions? they haven't even started yet, tbh..i'm hoping it's a sign of more things to come.

Not sure tbh... time will tell...

[mavs>spurs]

Dude, try not to be such a retarded fucking be@ner and you might learn something ok?

Intrade is actually a very accurate predictor...more accurate than any other polling agency and I'll tell you why. Money talks. When it comes to their money, people don't go with who they want to win but rather who they truly believe will win. Last election, intrade correctly predicted the winner of all 50 states plus district of columbia.

Now this go round, Obama's chance of reelection has been slipping steadily ever since Romney won the GOP nomination. Over the weekend, just two days into the 2016 movie, he has dropped from 57.1% to 55.8%. And the Republican National Convention hasn't even started yet. Your man is in trouble, no bias.

[boutons_deux]

You guys think you 99%ers are gonna benefit from getting fucked hard and deep by gecko and Ryan and a Repug Congress. The 2001-2008 disaster we are still staying paying for and dying for, and will be for decades, will look like kumbaya.

[boutons_deux]

You guys think you 99%ers are gonna benefit from getting fucked hard and deep by gecko and Ryan and a Repug Congress. The 2001-2008 disaster we are still staying paying for and dying for, and will be for decades, will look like kumbaya.

[ElNono]

Dude, try not to be such a retarded fucking be@ner and you might learn something ok?

Intrade is actually a very accurate predictor...more accurate than any other polling agency and I'll tell you why. Money talks. When it comes to their money, people don't go with who they want to win but rather who they truly believe will win. Last election, intrade correctly predicted the winner of all 50 states plus district of columbia.

Now this go round, Obama's chance of reelection has been slipping steadily ever since Romney won the GOP nomination. Over the weekend, just two days into the 2016 movie, he has dropped from 57.1% to 55.8%. And the Republican National Convention hasn't even started yet. Your man is in trouble, no bias.

Who are you talking to?

[mavs>spurs]

hebitch

[ElNono]

hebitch

roger that

[jack sommerset]

My money's on Romney. God bless