Homeland Security
09-04-2012, 09:47 AM
I. The Precipice
This period will last 10-20 years starting now. Following fiscal crises that rock Europe and then Asia, the United States will be the last domino to fall. The country's accelerating debt will be like dry tinder stacked up against the cabin, with the owner shrugging his shoulders at the warnings because there is no sign of fire. When investors lose confidence in the U.S. markets it will happen quickly. Unemployment will surge to over 30%. All levels of government will be bankrupt and unable to provide services.
II. The Chaos
This period will only last six months to a year. With the collapse of civic order and many people desperate, lacking means to basic necessities, society will collapse into anarchy and violence. This will be the 'zombie apocalypse' period where people are living off canned food and using their arsenals to kill those coming after their stores.
III. The Eye
People will be desperate for anyone to come in and restore order. Grassroots organizations that have been planning for this time will have the means to restore order. These will be brutal and authoritarian at least at first. Importantly, different groups will take control in different parts of the country. At this point, the United States effectively ceases to exist and at least two, but probably more, successor states come into being. Some of these will be social-democratic or even Marxist-Leninist (east and west coast). Some will be a combination of laissez-faire and right-wing authoritarian (Gulf Coast at least, maybe the intermountain west). There might be some that are relatively moderate (midwest, west). A period of relative stability, though with great poverty, comes into being. This will take a few years to work itself out.
IV. The Reckoning
This period will last a couple of decades. It will involve rising tensions among the successor states. During this time, people will ask, "Why did this happen?" In the right-wing successor states, the liberal cultural elite, (i.e. academia, journalists, and entertainers), homosexuals, and probably ethnic minorities (though my work will be making the blame more on the first two and less the minorities) will be blamed. In the left-wing successor states, the bourgoisie (businessmen, some professionals) and right-wing Christians will be blamed. These respective groups will experience varying degrees of persecution, ranging from special restrictions to outright pogroms.
The various successor states will observe that "our people" are being oppressed in the other successor states. This will become the rallying point around which the successor states develop national identities. Calls to take action against the other successor states will escalate.
V. The Inferno
At some point, an event, impossible to predict, will be the lit match to sets everything off. The successor states will go to war with one another. World War II in Europe will look like a gentleman's disagreement in comparison. Seething hatred will be the motivation. People will love the death of their enemies more than their own lives. Most of what we recognize as the civilization in central North America will be annihilated -- cities, infrastructure, economy -- everything. Nuclear weapons will be tossed around like Halloween candy. This war will last at least a decade.
VI. The Aftermath
Probably the "right wing" will win the war, simply because the left is too tightly congregated in the cities, but it will be a Pyrrhic victory at best. At least 40% of the pre-war population will be dead, and they may be the lucky ones. The cultural legacy of the United States will be gone, and what is left will be a stunted, post-fundamentalist, deeply impoverished civilization that lies in ruins for a century or more.
Latinos will die in relatively fewer numbers than Anglos or blacks, such that in the postwar landscape they make up at least a third of the population, and an outright majority in what was once Mexico pre-1836. They may be the ones who eventually build the next great North American power in the middle of the third millenium.
Blacks will have just a remant left.
The United States of America will have passed into history like the great empires before it.
This period will last 10-20 years starting now. Following fiscal crises that rock Europe and then Asia, the United States will be the last domino to fall. The country's accelerating debt will be like dry tinder stacked up against the cabin, with the owner shrugging his shoulders at the warnings because there is no sign of fire. When investors lose confidence in the U.S. markets it will happen quickly. Unemployment will surge to over 30%. All levels of government will be bankrupt and unable to provide services.
II. The Chaos
This period will only last six months to a year. With the collapse of civic order and many people desperate, lacking means to basic necessities, society will collapse into anarchy and violence. This will be the 'zombie apocalypse' period where people are living off canned food and using their arsenals to kill those coming after their stores.
III. The Eye
People will be desperate for anyone to come in and restore order. Grassroots organizations that have been planning for this time will have the means to restore order. These will be brutal and authoritarian at least at first. Importantly, different groups will take control in different parts of the country. At this point, the United States effectively ceases to exist and at least two, but probably more, successor states come into being. Some of these will be social-democratic or even Marxist-Leninist (east and west coast). Some will be a combination of laissez-faire and right-wing authoritarian (Gulf Coast at least, maybe the intermountain west). There might be some that are relatively moderate (midwest, west). A period of relative stability, though with great poverty, comes into being. This will take a few years to work itself out.
IV. The Reckoning
This period will last a couple of decades. It will involve rising tensions among the successor states. During this time, people will ask, "Why did this happen?" In the right-wing successor states, the liberal cultural elite, (i.e. academia, journalists, and entertainers), homosexuals, and probably ethnic minorities (though my work will be making the blame more on the first two and less the minorities) will be blamed. In the left-wing successor states, the bourgoisie (businessmen, some professionals) and right-wing Christians will be blamed. These respective groups will experience varying degrees of persecution, ranging from special restrictions to outright pogroms.
The various successor states will observe that "our people" are being oppressed in the other successor states. This will become the rallying point around which the successor states develop national identities. Calls to take action against the other successor states will escalate.
V. The Inferno
At some point, an event, impossible to predict, will be the lit match to sets everything off. The successor states will go to war with one another. World War II in Europe will look like a gentleman's disagreement in comparison. Seething hatred will be the motivation. People will love the death of their enemies more than their own lives. Most of what we recognize as the civilization in central North America will be annihilated -- cities, infrastructure, economy -- everything. Nuclear weapons will be tossed around like Halloween candy. This war will last at least a decade.
VI. The Aftermath
Probably the "right wing" will win the war, simply because the left is too tightly congregated in the cities, but it will be a Pyrrhic victory at best. At least 40% of the pre-war population will be dead, and they may be the lucky ones. The cultural legacy of the United States will be gone, and what is left will be a stunted, post-fundamentalist, deeply impoverished civilization that lies in ruins for a century or more.
Latinos will die in relatively fewer numbers than Anglos or blacks, such that in the postwar landscape they make up at least a third of the population, and an outright majority in what was once Mexico pre-1836. They may be the ones who eventually build the next great North American power in the middle of the third millenium.
Blacks will have just a remant left.
The United States of America will have passed into history like the great empires before it.