Updated electoral votes Map (305 Obama to Romneys 220)

[InRareForm]

http://www.economist.com/blogs/graphicdetail/2012/09/us-election-2012?fsrc=scn/tw/te/bl/statesofplay

[mavs>spurs]

doesn't matter, just a couple of weeks ago romney was up a couple percent nationwide and gaining ground in every single swing state. he's got a ton of money to spend, and the DNC just ended. nothing matters until the first of november we will see who has the momentum then. granted, i think it will be obama, but still anything you see today isn't a reliable indicator.

[boutons_deux]

318:

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/author/nate-silver/

[George Gervin's Afro]

There is going to be a nuclear meltdown on this board if barry wins..lol

[coyotes_geek]

doesn't matter, just a couple of weeks ago romney was up a couple percent nationwide and gaining ground in every single swing state. he's got a ton of money to spend, and the DNC just ended. nothing matters until the first of november we will see who has the momentum then. granted, i think it will be obama, but still anything you see today isn't a reliable indicator.

Romney's out of time TBH. The only thing that was going to get Obama was an unemployment rate back in the 9%'s. That's not going to happen. (yes, I know the 8.1% is cooked but that's still the only number people care about)

Obama is pretty much a lock at this point.

[MannyIsGod]

Romney hasn't been up in any reliable projection at any point during this election. His convention bounce was slight. The Obama bounce was actually rather large as these things go. Its a bounce so it will come back down somewhat, but my take away from this is that people would rather get behind Obama than they would Romney. They lean in that direction and Romney has his work cut out for him and faces a much harder road to convince people he's a good selection.

Couple that with the fact that Obama already has a lead and its a sizeable challenge for him. The odds for Romney winning are extremely long at this point.

[boutons_deux]

A Tight Election May Be Tangled in Legal Battles

The November presidential election, widely expected to rest on a final blitz of advertising and furious campaigning, may also hinge nearly as much on last-minute legal battles over when and how ballots should be cast and counted, particularly if the race remains tight in battleground states.

In the last few weeks, nearly a dozen decisions in federal and state courts on early voting, provisional ballots and voter identification requirements have driven the rules in conflicting directions, some favoring Republicans demanding that voters show more identification to guard against fraud and others backing Democrats who want to make voting as easy as possible.

The most closely watched cases - in the swing states of Ohio and Pennsylvania - will see court arguments again this week, with the Ohio dispute possibly headed for a request for emergency review by the Supreme Court.

In Wisconsin, the home state of the Republican vice-presidential candidate, Representative Paul D. Ryan, the attorney general has just appealed to the State Supreme Court on an emergency basis to review two rulings barring its voter ID law. But even if all such cases are settled before Nov. 6 - there are others in Florida, Iowa and South Carolina - any truly tight race will most likely generate post-election litigation that could delay the final result.

"In any of these states there is the potential for disaster," said Lawrence Norden of the Brennan Center for Justice at New York University School of Law. "You have close elections and the real possibility that people will say their votes were not counted when they should have been. That's the nightmare scenario for the day after the election."

In the 2000 presidential election, a deadlock over ballot design and tallying in parts of Florida led the Supreme Court, in a 5-4 vote, to stop a recount of ballots, which led to George W. Bush defeating Al Gore. Since then, both parties have focused on voting procedures.

The Obama campaign, for example, brought suit in Ohio over its reduction of early voting weekends used more by blacks than other groups.

Republicans have expressed concern over what they call voter integrity. They say they fear that registration drives by liberal and community groups have bloated voter rolls with the dead and the undocumented and have created loose monitoring of who votes and low public confidence in the system. They have instituted voter identification rules, cut back on early voting and sought to purge voter lists by comparing them with others, including those of the Department of Homeland Security.

Judicial Watch, a conservative organization aimed at reducing voter fraud, says it has found that voter rolls last year in 12 states seemed to contain an ineligible number of voting-age residents when compared with 2010 census data. It is suing both Indiana and Ohio for failing to clean up their rolls in keeping with their obligations under the National Voter Registration Act.

Democrats worry about what they call voter suppression. They say that voter fraud is largely a myth and that the goal of the Republican-led laws and lawsuits is to reduce voting by minorities, the poor and the young, who tend to vote more for Democrats.

At the Democratic National Convention in North Carolina on Thursday, Representative John Lewis of Georgia expressed his party's view on voter-related Republican-led laws when he compared them to poll taxes and literacy tests used to prevent blacks from voting in an earlier era.

"Today, it is unbelievable that there are Republican officials still trying to stop some people from voting," he said. "They are changing the rules, cutting polling hours and imposing requirements intended to suppress the vote."

http://mobile.nytimes.com/2012/09/10/us/politics/legal-battles-on-voting-may-prove-a-critical-issue-in-election.xml;jsessionid=20DA4EB23589850ACBC1D2EECC D5B3BD?f=19

Repug voter suppression is of course, indubitably BLACK VOTER suppression.

[baseline bum]

Anyone who thinks Romney still can't buy this election is nuts. People complain about the negative ad hit-pieces, but they're there because they work.

[DUNCANownsKOBE]

Anyone who thinks Romney still can't buy this election is nuts. People complain about the negative ad hit-pieces, but they're there because they work.
This.

Romney has yet to really start carpet bombing Obama with negative ads. Maybe those negative ads will spread blatant lies about Obama and his record but that strategy works.

How effective Romney's inevitable carpet bombing is and how the economy does from now till the election will determine most of it. If the Republicans get their way with the voter ID stuff (:cryvoter fraud:cry) then that also swings this election in a lot of states. I don't see the debates really doing much. Both guys are intelligent and neither one is gonna catch the other with his pants down.

[Clipper Nation]

Anyone who thinks Romney still can't buy this election is nuts. People complain about the negative ad hit-pieces, but they're there because they work.
The problem for Willard (besides an utter lack of conservatism, principles, or honesty) is that his reputation is so low at this point and he probably won't have enough time to work his way back up, tbh...

Another issue is, the inevitable onslaught of "BARRY HUSSEIN IS A COMMIE 'MURICA-HATIN MUSLUM" ads will only work on people who were already voting for Willard anyway, tbh...

[Latarian Milton]

romney is a freakin' joke and hes never gonna beat obama. as much as the kenyan nigga disappoints the voters, they still would rather vote for him over a mormon imho

[InRareForm]

If the attack ads didn't work in 2008 given a new to the game "black man", I don't think they will work this time around, when people actually know who Obama is and not some scary black muslim man.

[MannyIsGod]

This.

Romney has yet to really start carpet bombing Obama with negative ads. Maybe those negative ads will spread blatant lies about Obama and his record but that strategy works.

How effective Romney's inevitable carpet bombing is and how the economy does from now till the election will determine most of it. If the Republicans get their way with the voter ID stuff (:cryvoter fraud:cry) then that also swings this election in a lot of states. I don't see the debates really doing much. Both guys are intelligent and neither one is gonna catch the other with his pants down.

You may not notice these things because you don't live in a swing state (not sure where you live) but I promise you the negative ads are running very hardcore in swing states.

[baseline bum]

If the attack ads didn't work in 2008 given a new to the game "black man", I don't think they will work this time around, when people actually know who Obama is and not some scary black muslim man.

Obama was essentially running against Bush last time and was the one with the huge monetary advantage. Pretty different this time.

[Wild Cobra]

Anyone who thinks Romney still can't buy this election is nuts. People complain about the negative ad hit-pieces, but they're there because they work.
Yes, and they work well.

I'll bet all the good negative ads against Obama will start in the last two weeks of October, and they can have now ones every day, and not run out of honest attacks.

[Jacob1983]

Ironic isn't it? Obama is Bush this time and is running for Bush's 4th term.

[boutons_deux]

Anyone who thinks Romney still can't buy this election is nuts. People complain about the negative ad hit-pieces, but they're there because they work.

I'm betting the carpet-bombing swift-boating of Barry by Kock Bros' fraudulent "social welfare" orgs, Rove, etc will turn people off even more than they are now about the "business" of negative political ads. NOBODY, except the most ignorant, biased, single-issue, racist "Christian" Repug base and Fox watchers believes that shit.

[Trainwreck2100]

Ironic isn't it? Obama is Bush this time and is running for Bush's 4th term.

Bush is getting a 4th term either way

[Homeland Security]

The nice thing is that no matter what the outcome, demographics dictate an election close enough that the loser can claim greivance that it was "stolen," and given the polarization of the electorate, we can really go a long way towards destabilizing the country in the aftermath.

By the way, the real reason gun and ammunition sales have been surging the past few years is *NOT* because people are afraid Obama is going to take their guns away. It is first of all in preparation for the event Obama loses re-election. We expect massive riots if that happens. We expect a surprising number of rioters to be young white liberals.

The prospect of young white liberal rioters changes the prospect of the riots for me from dread to anticipation. See, killing black people isn't fun. You do what you have to do to protect your family and your property, but it's like killing people with Down's syndrome; it's sad. But white liberals? Ooh, I can't wait to see how they shit their pants and beg for their lives. I think maybe I'll slice off tattoos from the ones I kill as souvenirs.

[boutons_deux]

What Will Happen When Romney Gets Desperate

This job was supposed to get even easier when Romney tapped Paul Ryan for veep. Ryan was the man with the plan, the Republican Brain

It’s exactly one month after Ryan’s selection was announced, and his reputation has gone nowhere but down. He’s a liar and his famous “numbers” actually make no sense at all because they’re intentionally misleading. So now he looks less like a serious budget person than a drunken back-bencher who has to be elbowed awake to cast a vote.

Then there are the past few days. We got a crappy jobs report Friday morning. Romney trotted out and said the kinds of things he was supposed to say. And lo and behold—it hasn’t hurt Obama a whit.

two facts are now clear.

One, Romney is on the ropes. The memo from his pollster makes a few plausible points about why it’s too early to head for the exits. But Romney has some serious problems in some key states, notably Ohio. If he can’t win there, he basically has to win all of the following swing states to hit 273 electoral votes: Florida, Virginia, North Carolina, Colorado, Iowa, Nevada, and New Hampshire.

And the second fact that’s clear is that the economic argument is not working. Turns out that it’s not enough just to repeat the dour news when you keep dodging questions about your own plan. And taken together, these two facts mean: Romney isn’t going to desert the economic argument, of course, but he is going to try to win this thing in other ways.

he has to run a kulturkampf campaign, at least to some extent. There is no way he’ll get the base sufficiently fired up otherwise. And if he feels over the next few weeks that he’s not getting through to undecideds on the economic issues, his campaign is going to conclude that they have to go all in on culture. But they can’t do abortion—this isn’t a GOP primary, for God’s sake. And they can’t do immigration. And now, apparently, they can’t even do gays, because marriage equality looks to be pretty popular.

If they can’t demonize slatternly women or Latinos or gay people, that pretty much leaves one group—a group the president happens to embody and represent pretty well.

Romney hasn’t been shy about using race—see the dishonest welfare ads, or the mention of “Obamacare” before the NAACP, which, as I wrote at the time, was clearly designed so he’d be booed by the NAACP crowd, which would please certain other news consumers

the ongoing debate about whether Romney is really conservative or really moderate has wasted lots of airtime and killed many innocent trees. He’s neither. He’s nothing. He’ll say or do whatever he needs to do, whatever the Koch brothers or whoever tell him to do. He’s been dreaming of the presidency since 1968, and as he sees it slipping through his fingers, he’ll be capable of anything. It’s going to be a nasty seven weeks.

http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2012/09/11/michael-tomasky-on-what-will-happen-when-romney-gets-desperate.html?utm_medium=email&utm_source=newsletter&utm_campaign=cheatsheet_morning&cid=newsletter%3Bemail%3Bcheatsheet_morning&utm_term=Cheat%20Sheet

[Homeland Security]

The news that Romney is in trouble in Ohio all of a sudden, that is is "slipping away," is largely invented. This is a meme being pushed by the Obama campaign and its allies to counteract the advertising carpet-bombing by the Romney campaign. Nothing has changed fundamentally in Ohio in months. He's in no more or less trouble there than he was four months ago. Obama won Ohio by 4.5% in 2008; his best-case is somewhat less than that. I currently have Obama up by 2 in Ohio.

[RandomGuy]

The nice thing is that no matter what the outcome, demographics dictate an election close enough that the loser can claim greivance that it was "stolen," and given the polarization of the electorate, we can really go a long way towards destabilizing the country in the aftermath.

By the way, the real reason gun and ammunition sales have been surging the past few years is *NOT* because people are afraid Obama is going to take their guns away. It is first of all in preparation for the event Obama loses re-election. We expect massive riots if that happens. We expect a surprising number of rioters to be young white liberals.

The prospect of young white liberal rioters changes the prospect of the riots for me from dread to anticipation. See, killing black people isn't fun. You do what you have to do to protect your family and your property, but it's like killing people with Down's syndrome; it's sad. But white liberals? Ooh, I can't wait to see how they shit their pants and beg for their lives. I think maybe I'll slice off tattoos from the ones I kill as souvenirs.

Uh-huh.

You just get wierder and wierder, and darker and darker.

I shudder to think what swamp the mind on the other side of your screen inhabits.

You have been saying shit like this for years, ES. One has to wonder.

[Homeland Security]

Oh but it's just a troll so no need to worry about a guy with a 160+ IQ talking like this for years HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA

[Homeland Security]

Sleep tight bitches

[Stringer_Bell]

I know it's hard to comprehend, but Romney has been running the equivalent of a "Mom & Pop Campaign." It's too clean, too polished, and too afraid to go into any detail...it's all just been very vanilla.

He should have launched a full media assault/blitz on Obama before the RNC convention. Let people take in the negative ads, stir up some controversy, then give the speech he gave and let his surrogates continue the Obama bashing. That would have given him a shot at least...now the press is talking about buyer's remorse but it isn't Romney's fault the RNC had no better candidates to put against Obama.

Romney is done, there's nothing he can do except lose with dignity. If he pulls out the dirty tricks this late, the voters won't respond. Romney = Bob Dole Jr.

[Clipper Nation]

I'll bet all the good negative ads against Obama will start in the last two weeks of October, and they can have now ones every day, and not run out of honest attacks.
Mainly because they won't even try honest attacks... :lol

[Clipper Nation]

it isn't Romney's fault the RNC had no better candidates to put against Obama.
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/9/9d/Ron_Paul,_official_Congressional_photo_portrait,_2 007.jpg/220px-Ron_Paul,_official_Congressional_photo_portrait,_2 007.jpg

The Willard/GOP gang of crooks made sure to cheat in every primary and most caucuses, and then disenfranchise Ron Paul's legally-elected delegates at the convention, tbh.... Paul was the GOP's one shot at defeating Obama, so they can only blame themselves when they get 4 more years of Barack, tbh....

[InRareForm]

I hate that republicans didn't invite Paul to the RNC.

[Wild Cobra]

Mainly because they won't even try honest attacks... :lol
But they can do it with honesty. They don't need to lie about any of it.

[mavs>spurs]

Clipper Guy is a paulbot lol. Granted, I'm a ron paul fan myself and wanted him to win, and yeah he got screwed, but I'm not taking it to the extreme and hating romney for it. I just want the kenyan gone, is that so much to ask?

[Wild Cobra]

Clipper Guy is a paulbot lol. Granted, I'm a ron paul fan myself and wanted him to win, and yeah he got screwed, but I'm not taking it to the extreme and hating romney for it. I just want the kenyan gone, is that so much to ask?
I like almost everything about Ron Paul myself. I just wish he had more concern about global events. I too, am very pissed at what they did at the convention. I don't think Paul would have received the nomination, but I wanted to see the pot stirred.

[boutons_deux]

But they can do it with honesty. They don't need to lie about any of it.

They cannot do IT honestly, which is why they understand they need to lie, lie, lie.

[Clipper Nation]

Clipper Guy is a paulbot lol. Granted, I'm a ron paul fan myself and wanted him to win, and yeah he got screwed, but I'm not taking it to the extreme and hating romney for it. I just want the kenyan gone, is that so much to ask?
If you're a Ron Paul fan, why on Earth would you still vote for a neocon candidate who represents the party who fucked Paul over? That basically rewards them for the shit they pulled at the convention, just sayin'...

[Clipper Nation]

I like almost everything about Ron Paul myself. I just wish he had more concern about global events.
You can be "concerned about global events" without wars, drones, and sanctions, tbh...