Quant Geek Nate Silver : Obama 85.7% Chance of Winning Election

[DMX7]

He's predicting an ass whooping and he's usually quite accurate.

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/10/01/new-polls-raise-chance-of-electoral-college-tie/#more-35384

[Wild Cobra]

Maybe so, but things will just start getting interesting later this month. Things can change fast.

[MannyIsGod]

They usually don't change fast, though. Thats the thing. The closer you get to election day the less likely you are to move the needle.

[Wild Cobra]

They usually don't change fast, though. Thats the thing. The closer you get to election day the less likely you are to move the needle.
I agree in general, but Obama has so much he can be attacked for. If the material isn't used, then I would say the republicans just don't want the win. Maybe with a poor national outlook for decades to come, the republicans will let the blame stay on the democrats.

[FuzzyLumpkins]

Ryan was supposed to help the comeback: fail.

Out-fundraising was supposed to help the comeback: fail.

The RNC was supposed to help comeback: fail.

Hope springs eternal I guess but Ryan essentially alienated the entitlement loving boomers and without that segment you are all but guaranteed fail. Even Limbaugh's rhetoric has gone from GOP rah-rah to damage control.

Quite frankly, I hope it leads to change in the GOP. More Reaganesque domestic policy and less trickle down Reaganesque fiscal policy. Grover Norquist and the tea party need to get their own party.

[Jacob1983]

Will Romney pay off or take out Gary Johnson? He is currently taking 10 percent of the vote in Ohio.

[DUNCANownsKOBE]

I agree in general, but Obama has so much he can be attacked for. If the material isn't used, then I would say the republicans just don't want the win. Maybe with a poor national outlook for decades to come, the republicans will let the blame stay on the democrats.
:lol let the blame stay with the Democrats? The only reason Obama is predicted to whoop Romney's ass is because even after 4 years of a Democrat in the White House, most of America still blames the Republicans for the mess we're in.

[boutons_deux]

"Obama has so much he can be attacked for"

not really, and the attacks on economy, jobs, etc have all failed, so the October surprise, with the right-wing hate media already on message lead by Gecko, is to blame Obama for personally ordering the murder of Christopher Stevens in Libya, helping Iran build a nuke, and other foreign policy crimes, etc,etc. :lol

[coyotes_geek]

I agree in general, but Obama has so much he can be attacked for. If the material isn't used, then I would say the republicans just don't want the win. Maybe with a poor national outlook for decades to come, the republicans will let the blame stay on the democrats.

I'd say it's more about Mitt Romney being a crappy candidate with a crappy campaign team than it is republicans not wanting the win.

[Winehole23]

if Romney's been sandbagging, as WC suggests, he's an idiot. voters have already decided what they think of the candidates, short of catching one in bed with a dead girl or a live boy.

[Drachen]

also, voting is already starting. What's he waiting for?

Is he trying to lose a few states first to make it dramatic?
That's a bold strategy, Cotton. Let's see how that works out for him.

[DUNCANownsKOBE]

^:lmao

[DUNCANownsKOBE]

Will Romney pay off or take out Gary Johnson? He is currently taking 10 percent of the vote in Ohio.

Is he really? The more I read about Johnson the more I like the guy, he has the potential to get a few million votes.

[Latarian Milton]

romney might be even worse than 04' john kerry tbh, both bush & obama were awful enough in their first terms and would've been defeated w/o much effort if the counterparts were not complete fuckheads like kerry & romney are

[Clipper Nation]

I agree in general, but Obama has so much he can be attacked for.
Really? What hasn't he been attacked or blamed for in the past 4 years?

[DUNCANownsKOBE]

The amount of things the Republicans can attack Obama for is severely compromised given how much of it they agree with. The things Obama has done that have pissed even people as liberal as me off (renewing the Patriot Act, keeping Gitmo open, extending the Bush tax cuts, TARP, Libya, staying in Afghanistan, making the "War on Drugs" even more detrimental to this country than it already was, etc.) are ALL things we know Romney would have also done. The only primary candidate who could criticize Obama for most of that stuff was Ron Paul.

[Homeland Security]

Silver is overrated; his predictions are subjective but made to look objective with layers of complex-looking data. It's a Rube Goldberg machine.

That said, his ultimate prediction is pretty close to the mark. I haven't seen any movement towards Romney in the states he needs to win, and now it's October and the clock is running out.

[boutons_deux]

PA judge just stopped PA voter ID.

Repug effort to disenfranchise Pittsburgh's and Philly's poor, blacks, latinos, students, old, disabled, marginals, Dems fails.

[Jacob1983]

Obama likes Jay-Z. That's why he is hip and cool.

[Winehole23]

Jacob, you barely make sense, man.

[Jacob1983]

I was being sarcastic. I will say that I saw a pathetic and lame ad for Rock the Vote at Best Buy tonight. The koolaid drinking in the Hollywood is way down this time. Celebs were going all out in 2008 to tell you that you have to vote for Obama because he's not Bush, McCain is Bush. Funny how things change over 4 years. Obama is now Bush. Yes, I know that liberals and neocons will tell me that I'm stupid or to fuck off but it's true. Obama is hoping you vote for him so he can serve the 4th term of Bush. Romney is hoping too that you vote for his Mormon self so he can have the honor of a 4th term of Bush with the possibility of a 5th Bush term.

[Winehole23]

I was being sarcastic.you should vary your game a little. that seems to be your all-purpose excuse for obtuse, unfunny remarks.

[DMX7]

I suppose his next remark is sarcastic as well.