Why DeJuan Blair Must Start

[timvp]

While pondering the potential starting lineups the Spurs can trot out to begin the 2012-13 campaign, the most difficult call is who should start up front next to Tim Duncan. While DeJuan Blair did everything but demand a trade in the offseason when voicing his displeasure about his role (or lack thereof) during last year’s playoffs, I believe that he’s the man for the job. In fact, I’m completely convinced.

Going into last season, I wanted Tiago Splitter to start next to Tim Duncan. And though Splitter did very well last year, I’ve change my mind. Statistically, pairing Duncan with Splitter hasn’t been productive. However, that’s not the reason why I changed my mind; I actually think over time Duncan and Splitter could learn to play quite well together.

I want Splitter to come off the bench because it allows the Spurs to maximize their depth. With Splitter behind Duncan, the Spurs are guaranteed to always have a quality center on the court at all times. If you move Splitter into the starting lineup, the bench suddenly becomes rather small. Additionally, Splitter’s skillset (namely his elite pick-and-roll ability) is perfect for torturing opposing bench units.

Resting Duncan during the regular season is a must and Splitter being fresh for those Duncan-less minutes is better for him and better for the team. Considering that the Brazilian isn’t exactly Cal Ripken Jr. when it comes to staying healthy and I believe he’s best used as a supersub who can anchor what could very well be the best bench in the NBA.

Boris Diaw was the starter in the playoffs last season and he’d do well as a starter during the upcoming regular season. But Blair is the better option, for various reasons.

First of all, conserving Duncan for the playoffs should be a main focus if the ultimate goal is a championship. To conserve Duncan, keeping him out of the wrestling matches in the paint is vital. Blair, more than any other bigman on the team, allows Duncan to play out on the perimeter.

Offensively, Blair is a legit threat to score at the basket. In fact, on a per-minute basis, Blair scores as often at the rim as do Dwight Howard and Andrew Bynum. That interior production allows Duncan to operate from the high-post and avoid undue wear and tear.

Further proof to this claim can be found by looking at free throw attempts. When on the court with Diaw or Matt Bonner, Duncan averages more free throw attempts per minute (including a staggering 42% more attempts when paired with Bonner). When on the court with Blair, Duncan goes to the line 21% less often.

On the other end of the court, while Blair can’t be confused for a quality defender, he’s a physical player. That physicality, over the course of season, will lessen the pounding on Duncan.

Speaking of Blair’s defense, there were signs that he was beginning to figure things out the end of the regular season. In the final 15 games, opponents averaged only 100.4 points per 100 possessions when Blair was on the court. That’s quite an improvement considering that up until then opponents were scoring more than 106 points per 100 possessions against him.

Subjectively, near the end of last season, Blair’s defense did look much better. He was more aggressive when defending out on the perimeter, especially when asked to switch onto smaller players. He’s never going to be a good defender (or even an average defender) but it’s not out of the realm of possibilities that he can eventually become a non-liability on D.

As Blair’s career has progressed, perhaps the most worrisome aspect is his declining rebounding ability. He’s gone from elite to mediocre in three short years. On the defensive glass, he’s oftentimes downright bad. There’s a chance he could regain his former rebounding prowess but even if he doesn’t, the starting lineup fits him because he’ll be surrounding by three elite-for-their-position rebounders in Duncan, Kawhi Leonard and Danny Green (if Ginobili starts, he’s still fully capable of pulling down contested boards).

When Blair came into the league, his health was the largest question mark. As it turns out, he’s been the most dependable player on the Spurs over the last three seasons. Despite not having an ACL to speak of, he’s missed only one game due to injury in his career. If you put Blair in the starting lineup, you can go ahead and pencil him in for about 80 games at approximately 20 minutes a pop. That’s 1,600 minutes you don’t have to worry about.

In those 1,600 minutes, we might think we know what the Spurs will get from Blair -- but it’s easy to forget that he’s only 23 years old. Even if he doesn’t improve, the Spurs are going to get about nine points and six rebounds per game out of him. If he improves? Blair averaging 12 points and eight rebounds wouldn’t be too shocking but would definitely be helpful.

His high ceiling, especially compared to the other options, improves the argument for Blair -- in my eyes, at least. If he’s in shape (which he appears to be) and motivated (which he should be), there’s never been a question he can be statistically productive. While his true value will never match his stats, Blair putting up big numbers will help the Spurs win.

On the subject of winning, that’s one area where no one could ever fault Blair. He was a winner in high school. He was a winner in college. In the NBA, San Antonio has won 112 of the 150 games he has started. That’s a winning percentage that translates to 61.2 wins over 82 games. In the 80 games Blair hasn’t started, the Spurs have only 49 wins.

Advanced stats can’t explain why the Spurs win so much more when Blair starts. In fact, most advanced stats point to the Spurs being better when Blair is on the bench. But at the end of the day, wins are wins and you can’t take those away from him. The Spurs have been a great team in the regular season with Blair as a starter any way you slice it.

(If I had to come up with a halfway reasonable explanation for why the Spurs are so much with Blair as a starter, I’d have to use a football analogy: Blair is like that big smashmouth running back that is needed early in games to soften up the defense. When the scatback enters [or the Spurs bench, if you follow the analogy], he is able to exploit the holes and the defense finds it more difficult to adjust to his speed. The scatback will end up with the sexier stats and will receive the glory but it wouldn’t have been nearly as easy if he had to carry the entire load.)

One reason why Blair will never be as valuable as his stats suggest is his tendency to make mental blunders. He’s not a dumb player -- he actually has a really good feel for the game -- but each night you are guaranteed to scratch your head at least once as you try to figure out what Blair was thinking. If you put him in the starting lineup, you keep his minutes at the beginning of each half instead of in the guts of the game. Even if he has an especially mistake-filled game, there’s only so much damage he can do in those minutes in the first and third quarters.

With Blair in the starting lineup, Diaw slides into the Robert Horry role -- a role that suits him rather well. He plays with the bench unit and then is also used at the end of the games. Diaw still gets plenty of minutes in this scenario.

With Duncan, Blair, Splitter and Diaw in the rotation, that bumps Bonner into a role as the fifth bigman -- a role that suits him much better. The Spurs can’t rely on Bonner to produce in the playoffs or come up big in pressure situations (facts that have become painfully clear over the years), but he’s a better than average fifth bigman. For spot minutes in the regular season, Bonner is valuable depth.

One could argue that Diaw could start and Blair could come off the bench … but that just wouldn’t work. For the Splitter centric pick-and-roll offense to be effective, Splitter needs to be surrounded by four shooters. Blair would just get in the way and make the Spurs reserves much easier to defend. Splitter has to be paired with either Diaw or Bonner -- and if you have Diaw in the starting lineup, that leaves Bonner as the fourth big and Blair is the one on the fringe of the rotation.

Taking a step back, just in terms of managing assets, relegating Blair to mop-up duty would be unwise. Even if he really wants a trade and the Spurs really want to trade him, starting him and raising his trade value is the wisest avenue. It’s entirely possible to build up his trade value and then dump him at the trade deadline if he’s not in the long-term plans, but the Spurs won’t be able to get anything of value in return unless he’s playing quality minutes between now and then.

When the playoffs come around, no matter how Blair is used during the regular season, Pop will be free to rotate the bigmen however he sees fit. If that means removing Blair from the rotation again, that’s fine. Sure, Blair will be angered but with his contract expiring, it doesn’t really matter. The Spurs won’t be obligated to play him since their relationship will essentially be over if Blair doesn’t do well enough to earn postseason minutes.

In a situation where Blair doesn’t do enough to crack the playoff rotation, it’ll be a cinch for Diaw to step into the starting lineup. He did adequately well last season with hardly any preparation. After 82 more games, Diaw and the Spurs would seamlessly adjust to him in the starting five.

When considering the starting lineup as the 2012-13 season approaches, Diaw seems like the obvious choice next to Duncan. But working through how all the pieces fit together and what makes the most sense in the big picture, there’s no doubt in my mind that starting Blair is the way to go.

[Leetonidas]

Agreed. He's playing in a contract year and I think he'll want to showcase his talents to raise his stock for a trade. Diaw and Splitter would be a great bench lineup and the Spurs have played pretty damn well over the course of the regular season when Blair is next to Timmy. But if Blair isn't having someone run the pick and roll with him he's usually not doing much. I have no idea what happened to his rebounding. Hopefully that little jumper that he made in the scrimmage is a new weapon and not a fluke, it would make him a lot more valuable. And if Diaw is filling the Horry role and closing out games, I don't see the harm in starting Blair

[Redshadows]

He should be given enough playing time so Spurs could trade him for more.

Don't see what Blair and Bonner could do against Lakers and Thunder in the postseason.

[timvp]

Hopefully that little jumper that he made in the scrimmage is a new weapon and not a fluke, it would make him a lot more valuable.

Good point. I didn't even talk about the possible addition of a jumper but that'd be huge. In the offseason he said he was working on a 15-footer. If he actually has one, his ceiling is even higher.

In the scrimmage, the two jumpers he made looked better than any jumper I've ever seen him shoot ... so maybe he really does have a J now.

[lefty]

It doesnt matter who starts next to Tim

Our frontline is gonna get the Bane treatment vs the Lakers and OKC

[ElNono]

I like Blair, and I think he gives 100% most of the time, and I think he's a good kid (despite the questionable selection of GF).

But, unfortunately, for a team that wants to put the onus on defense, he would make a great 4th/5th big at most.

What you point out is correct though: this team has too many defensive liabilities in the rotation (Bonner/Blair) to be a top 5 defensive team, so until they can replace some of those, they're going to have to make lemonade.

Thanks for the writeup.

[Nathan89]

I'd start Diaw simply because I believe that the best lineup and I want to prepare the best lineup for the playoffs.

[timtonymanu]

I've thought about this too. I really want Bonner to be out of the rotation and pairing Blair with Splitter would be redundant so Diaw would be a better fit next to Splitter.

That being said, Blair's defense is still not good enough for him to be starting every night although RJ no longer being part of the team should make Blair look better starting next to 4 defensive starters (Duncan, Leonard, Green, Parker).

I guess I wouldn't mind the experiment, but Blair should expect that Diaw will ultimately replace him in the playoffs. Blair looked great at the scrimmage, but I want to see how legit that jump shot really is before granting him a spot. I'm still holding out hope that one of our training camp invites are capable of earning a spot on the team.

[Phenomanul]

kudos timvp... that entire post is the stuff of genius that makes this site great... the logic is there (and sound) hopefully those with the reigns on the team can come to a similar conclusion based on the stated logic...

I take it Powell and Curry are a wild cards in the big-man rotation question?

[spurs10]

I thank you, as well, for the thoughtful take. While there is little doubt to me that Blair would make a better 4th big than Matt, I'm not so sure he won't excel more against other teams' benches than their starting lineups inevitably. I believe this mostly due to his size, lack of defense, and that he seems to play better with Manu on the court. Yes, not being a shooter probably is not the best case scenario when Tiago is playing his pick and roll sets. I unfortunately believe Diaw is better in both the starting lineup and the bench. I feel we are much stronger with him playing the 4 than our alternatives. However, Diaw is not going to play 48 minutes.
Thanks for the writeup because it is a solution for our most glaring problem area....... the power forward minutes.

[TDMVPDPOY]

i want him off this team, dude is undersized and seems to have loss himself last season....

should trade him to the hawks

[AussieFanKurt]

i want him off this team, dude is undersized and seems to have loss himself last season....

should trade him to the hawks

Why the hawks? Who do you want?

[Em-City]

as ElNono mentioned earlier, my concern is with defense. simply put, we don't have enough defensively good big men (I would consider blair & bonner to be bad, splitter and diaw average, timmy good) for playoff basketball.

Wins in the regular season haven't been a problem for this squad, but I would like to see this team equipping themselves on the defensive end in preparation for playoffs.

This might mean playing more splitter/duncan together in the regular season - and even if they don't start together I think we need to see it more, just so that the team can adjust for the inevitable post-season upping of the ante.

[quentin_compson]

I think the only reason why I wouldn't want Tim and Splitter to start is, as timvp mentioned, our bench unit becomes much stronger and taller with Splitter playing instead of a combination of Blair, Diaw and Bonner. So that would leave either Diaw or Blair to start alongside Duncan. It seems that Blair took it quite hard when he lost his starting job and his production wasn't as consistent afterwards. Plus he's playing in a contract year so he should be even more motivated.

I can see timvp's point about Blair offensively saving a lot of of wear and tear for Tim because him operating down low means Tim can play farther away from the basket. I just fear that this is negated by the wear and tear Tim will have to endure on defense playing with a defender of DeJuan's caliber.

[baseline bum]

Man, I read the topic and thought you were nuts initially, but you make a pretty convincing case LJ.

[racm]

Not to mention that with Diaw in the second unit, you get more passing options. That should patch up for the fact that there's no real playmaker below 6'4" apart from TP.

[therealtruth]

Put simply. Pop has to start the best defensive lineup. I think defense has to be the calling card this year. In the past we just didn't have the personnel to play good defense from the tip. With Diaw it's now possible.

[Spurs Brazil]

Man, I read the topic and thought you were nuts initially, but you make a pretty convincing case LJ.

I had the same feeling. I don't like Blair but I'd rather see him getting minutes than Bonner.

As timvp wrote Tiago/Blair combo won't work well so Blair starting is really the best option. I'm only afraid Pop will play Bonner as the 1st big off the bench and Diaw or Tiago will lose minutes. Pop history with Bonner shows this is possible.

[ChuckD]

Blair's strength is his offense. He sets excellent picks, understands space and angles, is a good passer on the give and go, and has learned to take the power dribble to get himself to the rim. He's best with Manu. Manu comes off the bench. Blair should, too. I also think one of the reasons his rebounding has suffered the last two years is that he's started and is playing against starters.

[ploto]

Blair will start on opening day and up until the trade deadline, at which point he will either be traded or sent to the bench.

[dylankerouac]

Great review and argument for starting Blair. Noticing his possible defensive improvement at the end of last season was unexpected and I am happy you pointed it out. I can't wait for this season to start!

[CGD]

Sounds like your main argumnt is that he should start for the benefit of the second unit, and that essentially starting him is the lesser evil. As the playoffs showed this is not sustainable and we need to roll out our best option from the beginning of games. The better and more sustainable option is to get a better fit.

[Bruno]

I had to disagree on that.

Diaw and Duncan must start. Blair must be Diaw's backup and Splitter must be Duncan's backup.

The main reason of that is damn obvious: Blair is most of the time outmatched by starting PFs. Diaw, who is a little bigger and a way more sound defender, is a better fit to play against starters. Blair should be able to be a great fit as a energy big from the bench.

Starting Parker/Green/Leonard/Diaw/Duncan with Mills/Ginobili/Jakcson/Blair/Splitter on the bench is the way to go for me.

[racm]

That's a good 10-man rotation, but unless Blair shows that midrange jumper was no fluke the second unit has mediocre floor spacing.

[Cane]

Blair has to start to increase his trade value. And to give Blair another opportunity to show any improvements, kind of like the infamous Richard Jefferson.

Blair/Splitter together has problems since offensively they both want to do the same thing: get fed on the pick and roll and clean up the garbage. One of them needs a consistent jumper or opposing defenses will just pack the paint and hack-a-Shaq.

But like always the Spurs need some personnel improvements in the frontcourt. It's getting to the point where all the Spurs forwards and centers are more like bench players than solid starters for a contender

[DPG21920]

I don't care who starts, but I do care that Pop seemingly changes what's working at the last moment and going into the playoffs. That has not worked for the Spurs and leaves a lot of "what-if's" in my opinion.

[CGD]

I don't care who starts, but I do care that Pop seemingly changes what's working at the last moment and going into the playoffs. That has not worked for the Spurs and leaves a lot of "what-if's" in my opinion.

My concern as well. If pop is going to turn to diaw or splitter in the playoffs, it's better to have them build chemestry with t from the beginning. Starting Blair is not the answer. Saying that I hope he's improved this summer and makes me eat my words, but even the. The physical limitations are to big to ignore.

[ChuckD]

That's a good 10-man rotation, but unless Blair shows that midrange jumper was no fluke the second unit has mediocre floor spacing.

Jack and Mills provide your spacing with that lineup.

[MR-Clutch]

So the spurs basically have the same winning % with or without Blair?

[TDMVPDPOY]

he hasnt shown us any upgrades over the years his been here, not fkn impressed at all....

[therealtruth]

I don't care who starts, but I do care that Pop seemingly changes what's working at the last moment and going into the playoffs. That has not worked for the Spurs and leaves a lot of "what-if's" in my opinion.

I do. The team is not going to get better defensively by starting Blair. If he can't play with Splitter of the bench then the Spurs need to find a guy who can. I still feel Splitter needs to play some more backup PF minutes to get better.

[timvp]

I had to disagree on that.

Diaw and Duncan must start. Blair must be Diaw's backup and Splitter must be Duncan's backup.

The main reason of that is damn obvious: Blair is most of the time outmatched by starting PFs. Diaw, who is a little bigger and a way more sound defender, is a better fit to play against starters. Blair should be able to be a great fit as a energy big from the bench.

Starting Parker/Green/Leonard/Diaw/Duncan with Mills/Ginobili/Jakcson/Blair/Splitter on the bench is the way to go for me.

I'd like Diaw's defense in the starting lineup -- I really would. But there's just absolutely no way that Blair and Splitter will work as the bench bigs. Splitter has to have a floor spacing power forward next to him. It's a must. If the Spurs try to play Blair next to Splitter, the opposing team will just sag off of Blair and negate all the Splitter pick-and-roll attempts. And it'd be a disaster for Blair, too. Not only would he have to try to score over his man (who is always taller than him), he'd have the opposing center also in his lap.

On paper, Blair and Splitter doesn't work at all. The stats back that up about as emphatically as statistically possible: Last year, the Spurs outscored opponents by 15.31 points per 100 possessions when Bonner played next to Splitter. When Blair played next to Splitter, the Spurs were outscored by 13.11 points per 100 possessions. That's a staggering difference of 28.42 points per 100 possessions when you put a floor spacing next to Splitter as opposed to an interior player.

If Diaw starts, it GUARANTEES Bonner will be the backup power forward. Blair next to Splitter is an impossibility.

As the roster is composed at this moment, starting Blair is the lesser of all evils. It's obviously far from perfect ... but them's the cards that have been dealt.

[Leetonidas]

Well, Diaw got put into the lineup and the Spurs went on a 20 game winning streak, can't really argue with results. But I think Blair should start simply because he will be happy if he's starting regardless of if he plays "starter minutes" and Diaw will get the bulk of the time at PF anyway. I do agree with Bruno though, Blair gets killed by starting quality PFs and is more suited to play against bench players. But the second unit has terrible spacing with him next to Splitter, and Bonner should not be ahead of Blar imo. It's a double edged sword, but Blair starting generally hasn't hurt us in the regular season and it can only raise his stock so he can be traded for a decent player

[Leetonidas]

But it won't matter eventually because I'm certain he will be traded at some point, Bonner sucks but he is who should be playing next to Splitter, the numbers don't lie

[Leetonidas]

Also I'd like to point out, don't you think Pop, with Leonard/Jackson on the roster, will be playing more small ball with either one of them at PF with Splitter in the middle? I could swear this happened a few times

[spurs10]

That's some staggering statistics about Tiago/Bonner vs. Tiago/Blair. Think you are right that we'll see more of Bonner with Blair for spacing. If Blair has really worked on his jumper from 15-18 feet, perhaps we might see something different.
I think timvp's reasoning is the exact reason Blair has always started. It's also the reason Diaw was brought on board, as an improvement for the starting lineup. Like many have said he might hang for awhile as the starter in the RS, but it's not sustainable.
I believe this thread is the best thing I've read all off-season and makes a lot of sense. I expect to see a good amount of small ball with Jack and Kawhi. Good thing Kawhi is young.
Probably Curry is just insurance for TnT if he stays. Brown would probably need to prove he could beat out Blair and Bonner for the 4th big spot before he gets to stay.
I am envious of all of you that are going to the game. Will be listening to Schoening in the second half.

[Bruno]

I'd like Diaw's defense in the starting lineup -- I really would. But there's just absolutely no way that Blair and Splitter will work as the bench bigs. Splitter has to have a floor spacing power forward next to him. It's a must. If the Spurs try to play Blair next to Splitter, the opposing team will just sag off of Blair and negate all the Splitter pick-and-roll attempts. And it'd be a disaster for Blair, too. Not only would he have to try to score over his man (who is always taller than him), he'd have the opposing center also in his lap.

On paper, Blair and Splitter doesn't work at all. The stats back that up about as emphatically as statistically possible: Last year, the Spurs outscored opponents by 15.31 points per 100 possessions when Bonner played next to Splitter. When Blair played next to Splitter, the Spurs were outscored by 13.11 points per 100 possessions. That's a staggering difference of 28.42 points per 100 possessions when you put a floor spacing next to Splitter as opposed to an interior player.

If Diaw starts, it GUARANTEES Bonner will be the backup power forward. Blair next to Splitter is an impossibility.

As the roster is composed at this moment, starting Blair is the lesser of all evils. It's obviously far from perfect ... but them's the cards that have been dealt.

I agree that there isn't a perfect solution with Spurs current roster and you made some good points but Diaw starting with Blair as the backup is the less worst solution for the following reasons in addition of Blair inability to defend good PFs:

- The Parker/Green/Leonard/Blair/Duncan lineup hasn't worked at all last year. Spurs have outscored teams by 7.1pts per 48minutes last year and this lineup was outscored by 6.3pts per 48 min. This lineup was weak both defensively and offensively.

- You can limit the amount of minute Blair will be paired with Splitter even if both are backups. Without doing something really complicate, one of Diaw or Duncan can hit the bench early in the first and third quarters.

- It isn't really known but Blair was actually good last year at hitting midrange jump-shots. He was 31 for 73 which is a solid .425 FG%. The sample size isn't big enough to claim that Blair midrange jumper is a reliable weapon for Spurs but he might become this year after he worked on it this summer.

- I'm not sold that a Mills/Ginobili/Blair/Splitter lineup won't work offensively. There will have a spacing issue between Blair and Splitter but what will help it is that both are good passers and that all 3 perimeter players are 3 points shooters.

[TDMVPDPOY]

I agree that there isn't a perfect solution with Spurs current roster and you made some good points but Diaw starting with Blair as the backup is the less worst solution for the following reasons in addition of Blair inability to defend good PFs:

- The Parker/Green/Leonard/Blair/Duncan lineup hasn't worked at all last year. Spurs have outscored teams by 7.1pts per 48minutes last year and this lineup was outscored by 6.3pts per 48 min. This lineup was weak both defensively and offensively.

- You can limit the amount of minute Blair will be paired with Splitter even if both are backups. Without doing something really complicate, one of Diaw or Duncan can hit the bench early in the first and third quarters.

- It isn't really known but Blair was actually good last year at hitting midrange jump-shots. He was 31 for 73 which is a solid .425 FG%. The sample size isn't big enough to claim that Blair midrange jumper is a reliable weapon for Spurs but he might become this year after he worked on it this summer.

- I'm not sold that a Mills/Ginobili/Blair/Splitter lineup won't work offensively. There will have a spacing issue between Blair and Splitter but what will help it is that both are good passers and that all 3 perimeter players are 3 points shooters.

imo if curry is added to the roster, i want to see him paird up with someone who can cover his weakness that is defense, maybe diaw is the perfect answer...he can spread the floor and clog up the lane, while making that extra pass to find curry down low....adding curry makes blair expendable, reason being curry is a bigger version of blair without the double clutch circus shots

curry/diaw with either wings like gino/kl/green/jax for the wing defense and help defense...

[objective]

Bonner is guaranteed to be in the rotation no matter who starts. So I don't see that being a factor either way.

Regardless,

Some people don't want Blair starting because of the mismatch versus teams like the Lakers, and it's a great point, but I don't think that's of any real consequence. Barring severe injuries the Lakers will have zero competition in the West. Everyone else is just a pretender playing to lose in the conference finals. So sure, Blair would cause the Spurs to get eaten alive, but they have no chance without getting help from fate anyway.

The Spurs didn't miss him out of the starting line-up this past year. They won 10 straight playoff games without him starting, and what, 14-15 in row without him starting? Wasn't it some of the best Spurs basketball ever witnessed? Yeah, they crumbled in the playoffs with the vintage Pop backdoor sweep. But that was a whole lot of things going wrong, and I don't think Blair's garbage defense would have won that series as a starter.

And, if they're serious about being a better defensive team, I can't see how they'd do that starting Blair.

If he truly has improved his game and his shape, to the point of being a solid defender who isn't too fat to finish above the rim or jump to get rebounds, then let's see him wreck other teams' reserves coming off the bench and earn the starting role instead of just being gifted it because he can't or won't perform off the bench.

[DAF86]

Why do we always have to try to outsmart everyone? Why don't we just start our best players like 99% of the other teams do?

Starters play more minutes, if you start your best players they will play more minutes, if you play your best players more minutes the team as a whole does better. It's pretty simple imho.

[therealtruth]

I'd like Diaw's defense in the starting lineup -- I really would. But there's just absolutely no way that Blair and Splitter will work as the bench bigs. Splitter has to have a floor spacing power forward next to him. It's a must. If the Spurs try to play Blair next to Splitter, the opposing team will just sag off of Blair and negate all the Splitter pick-and-roll attempts. And it'd be a disaster for Blair, too. Not only would he have to try to score over his man (who is always taller than him), he'd have the opposing center also in his lap.

On paper, Blair and Splitter doesn't work at all. The stats back that up about as emphatically as statistically possible: Last year, the Spurs outscored opponents by 15.31 points per 100 possessions when Bonner played next to Splitter. When Blair played next to Splitter, the Spurs were outscored by 13.11 points per 100 possessions. That's a staggering difference of 28.42 points per 100 possessions when you put a floor spacing next to Splitter as opposed to an interior player.

If Diaw starts, it GUARANTEES Bonner will be the backup power forward. Blair next to Splitter is an impossibility.

As the roster is composed at this moment, starting Blair is the lesser of all evils. It's obviously far from perfect ... but them's the cards that have been dealt.

Your argument makes sense based upon offense. But the Spurs are not going to win it all by not getting back to defense first and starting Blair doesn't help that shift. There are a couple of solutions to the offense problems that don't involve Bonner. Blair can start hitting his jumpers or Pop can play more small ball with Kawhi or Jax at the 4 or they can keep Josh Powell. They also need to get back to being able to run the offense out of Splitter through the post instead of just pick and roll all the time.

[timvp]

I don't care who starts, but I do care that Pop seemingly changes what's working at the last moment and going into the playoffs. That has not worked for the Spurs and leaves a lot of "what-if's" in my opinion.Disagree. Switching to Diaw in the starting lineup last season was absolutely the right call and is a reason why the Spurs got as close as they got. I can't fathom a "what-if" that has the Spurs beating the Thunder with last year's Blair in the starting lineup.


- I'm not sold that a Mills/Ginobili/Blair/Splitter lineup won't work offensively. There will have a spacing issue between Blair and Splitter but what will help it is that both are good passers and that all 3 perimeter players are 3 points shooters.That "spacing issue" is too much of a negative to overcome. The only way to make it work at all is if the Spurs went away from a pick-and-roll attack ... and that'd be pretty dumb considering how well their offense has been the last couple years.

If Diaw starts, Bonner is going to be the fourth bigman -- whether it's right away or a week or two into the season when Pop tires of the lack of spacing in the second unit.





Bonner is guaranteed to be in the rotation no matter who starts. So I don't see that being a factor either way.If this is true, then Diaw should start.

[benefactor]

This is why I think the Spurs should keep Powell if continues to play well throughout camp and the preseason. Perhaps he can outplay their other two fake PF's and give them someone is really is suited to play the position on both sides of the ball.

[DAF86]

Why do we always have to try to outsmart everyone? Why don't we just start our best players like 99% of the other teams do?

Starters play more minutes, if you start your best players they will play more minutes, if you play your best players more minutes the team as a whole does better. It's pretty simple imho.

Come playoffs time we will want/need our best players to play toghether as much as possible. Why play Manu/Diaw/whoever as a sub the whole season if when it really matters we're going to start him/them? Why improvise at the most crucial time if we can work on it during the season?

The excessive minute watching is a problem too, if you play a guy 25/30 minutes the whole season, you can't expect that guy to start playing 35/40 in the playoffs without gassing out. Playing your guys a lot of minutes per game improves endurance, yeah it consumes energy too but that can be fixed with a game off every now and then.

I'm not asking for Tim and Manu to start playing 40 minutes per game but those bullshit 18/20 minutes games hurt more than it helps, imho.

[Frenchie]

I agree with Bruno but if the Spurs want to trade Blair, maybe Pop has to put him in the starting line-up to make his value rise.

I also think that Bonner will be the first big off the bench like in the past seasons. I don't like that fact but I see no reason why Pop could change his mind on Bonner.

Boris can start the game and be taken out of the game quickly in the first and the third quarters like KG in Boston last season. Then bring Blair and hope that he can score enough to be a good asset in a trade. It's probably not the case today but the front-office has often made good decisions when trade deadline comes. TBH, I'm pessimistic about Blair's chance to be a Spur after the trade deadline.

The fact that the Spurs have invited a lot of forwards at the training camp makes me think that there will be more small ball line-ups than last year. If all guards plus Kawhi and Jax want to have minutes, Pop will have to reduce the height of his lineup. Moreover, there will be more spacing with a small ball config and we all know how it's important in Pop's mind.

[ElNono]

You have to wonder if Blair's sour mood has only to do with being yanked out of the lineup for the playoffs twice in a row, or if Pop already hinted at him there's no minutes for him.

Let's not forget that before Diaw came over, Bonner and Splitter, the reserve guys, were getting about 20 mpg. I completely agree with objective that Bonner will keep on getting his minutes.

The more I think about it, the more I think Blair will be the 5th big and insurance for Splitter.
Splitter is very suspect right now: non-stop dings that cause him to miss games all the time, possibly missing some training camp again, hack-a-Splitter was out there for everyone to see, and foul trouble isn't out of the question since he's still has ways to go earning respect from refs.

[TD 21]

I wouldn't be surprised if this happens. I think they want to get another look at him, because other than Leonard, he's got the most room for growth. He's obviously in the best shape of his life and it looks as if he may have finally added a mid range jumper (how reliable it is and the exact extent of his range, remains to be seen). If he can show slight improvement defensively, the job could be his to lose for the simple fact that I don't think Pop will be comfortable playing him next to Splitter either, mid range jumper or not.

They should at least try playing them together, at the start of the preseason, to see how it works. If if doesn't work, then I could understand starting him. But it would be contradictory to once again claim defense is the main focus, then start a defensive liability and have another in the rotation.

[Ice009]

I disagree completely. Blair needs to earn the starting spot by playing defense, rebounding and showing smarts out there on the court. If he can't do that then he shouldn't be starting.

No one on this team should be handed anything anymore.

[ElNono]

Don't know if you can draw many conclusions from the 1st preseason game, but Diaw started, and Bonner/Blair came off the bench. Tiago was unavailable, so it's going to be interesting who loses minutes when he can suit up.

I think Bonner will play no matter what, so that would leave the 4th/5th big spot between Tiago and Blair...

[Ice009]

Bonner playing is just plain retarded. He is a not worth wasting time with. We need to play people that can contribute in the playoffs. Don't care what he can do in the regular season.

btw I might as well ask - Was Bonner carrying an injury in the playoffs or was he OK physically throughout that run?

[TDMVPDPOY]

blair only costs minimum, might as well waived him

[weebo]

Starting line up:
C Diaw
PF Duncan
SF Leonard
SG Green
PG Parker

Bench:

C Splitter/Bonner
PF Blair/Bonner
SF Jackson
SG Ginobili/De Colo/Neal
PG Neal/Mills

[DPG21920]

Disagree. Switching to Diaw in the starting lineup last season was absolutely the right call and is a reason why the Spurs got as close as they got. I can't fathom a "what-if" that has the Spurs beating the Thunder with last year's Blair in the starting lineup.


I agree about last year, but that is not the only time a switch has been made. Seemingly the Spurs win a lot of games in the regular season with Blair, then Pop goes away from him come playoff time - which is odd considering their records at the time going into the playoffs.

[G-Dawgg]

If Dejuan has to start for us, we're gonna be one hurtin' unit....

[therealtruth]

I agree about last year, but that is not the only time a switch has been made. Seemingly the Spurs win a lot of games in the regular season with Blair, then Pop goes away from him come playoff time - which is odd considering their records at the time going into the playoffs.

That's no entirely true. In Blair's first year he was in and out of the starting lineup because Pop couldn't decide on a lineup. Even Bonner started at the beginning of that season. Then Pop finally decided Dice should be the starter. Then the second year where he basically started most of the year Pop overreacted to a Lakers blowout by starting Dice and saying they needed better defense in the playoffs. Then last year Pop probably made the switch to Diaw for the same reason after getting blown out by the Lakers.

[Leetonidas]

I agree about last year, but that is not the only time a switch has been made. Seemingly the Spurs win a lot of games in the regular season with Blair, then Pop goes away from him come playoff time - which is odd considering their records at the time going into the playoffs.

But this last season, Blair was yanked for Diaw pretty much as soon as he got here and the Spurs won 20 in a row. So it's not like the Spurs have a bad record with Diaw starting next to Tim. Maybe the solution is to have Blair as the fifth big

[TDMVPDPOY]

popabitch needs to get into his grill and bonners grill

seems like all the shouting and barking is going into one ear out the other, players being too comfortable around pop that it means nothing....

whats the point of benchin or puttin a player in the dog house when it has no effect like his screaming at them, pop needs to get back into players asses and get the best out of them....

[timvp]

With Diaw starting the first preseason game, it looks like he's going to be the starter heading into the regular season. There's a very small chance that Pop altered the lineup to have Blair come off the bench in order to take Splitter's spot. I guess we'll find out for sure come preseason game #2.

In a bubble, I love Diaw in the starting lineup. The problem is that will make Bonner the fourth big. A trio of Splitter, Bonner and Diaw doesn't exactly exude toughness or physicality . . .

[RuffnReadyOzStyle]

Without putting too much thought into I'd assumed Diaw would start, but you have convinced me timvp, it should be Grizzly Blair. Diaw can shoot the 3, and he makes perfect sense as the stretch 4 off the bench.

Also, I completely agree with your comments about Grizz - he's by no means perfect, his defense, defensive rebounding and focus need improvement, but he's not nearly as terrible as many on here make him out to be. He'd start on some other NBA teams without much of a contest. But you're right, he would limit the starter's ceiling defensively.

I hope it eventuates this way and we see how it shakes out for 10 games. I also hope that Grizz brings on a strong season in his contract year... another motivating influence for him, and that as a consequence he becomes more attractive trade bait! ;)

[therealtruth]

With Diaw starting the first preseason game, it looks like he's going to be the starter heading into the regular season. There's a very small chance that Pop altered the lineup to have Blair come off the bench in order to take Splitter's spot. I guess we'll find out for sure come preseason game #2.

In a bubble, I love Diaw in the starting lineup. The problem is that will make Bonner the fourth big. A trio of Splitter, Bonner and Diaw doesn't exactly exude toughness or physicality . . .

You really think Pop is going to bench Blair in a contract year and when he could be a trade chip?

[Leetonidas]

Without putting too much thought into I'd assumed Diaw would start, but you have convinced me timvp, it should be Grizzly Blair. Diaw can shoot the 3, and he makes perfect sense as the stretch 4 off the bench.

Also, I completely agree with your comments about Grizz - he's by no means perfect, his defense, defensive rebounding and focus need improvement, but he's not nearly as terrible as many on here make him out to be. He'd start on some other NBA teams without much of a contest. But you're right, he would limit the starter's ceiling defensively.

I hope it eventuates this way and we see how it shakes out for 10 games. I also hope that Grizz brings on a strong season in his contract year... another motivating influence for him, and that as a consequence he becomes more attractive trade bait! ;)


I honestly don't believe that Blair would be starting for any team that wasn't severely depleted up front or had issues like our team does. Blair is an energy big off the bench. His shortcomings are way too prevalent for him to ever be a starter. And unfortunately he has proven that he will get himself out of shape quickly. He needs to play to get some value so he can be traded. But he is what he is, a decent player on the block who seems to have forgotten how to rebound (which was his most useful ability), can't really shoot (though we'll see if this changes) and doesn't have the size to contest most players at his position because they're usually about 5 inches taller. Blair's a gimmick imo, he needs to go

[Fireball]

I prefer Diaw as a starter. Blair should come off the bench and should do so in a limited role in the playoffs. Thus, he will not feel as abandoned as last season where he was a starter for so many games and then forgotten in the playoffs.

[mountainballer]

Blair needs to start because he doesn't fit with Splitter?
sorry, can't agree with that kind of logic. after 3 seasons we can defintely say that Blair isn't starter quality by any stretch. and never will be. he will either become a somehow productive bench rotation player, or his career with the Spurs will come to an end. if Blair doesn't fit with Splitter you play Bonner or go small with Sjax at the 4.
you don't create a scenario to optimize the production of your 10th best player and therefore sacrifice better line ups.

Diaw in the S5 works. if he is in better shape this season, it will work out even better. Diaw from the bench would be nice. if you had a better player to take the starting spot. Blair isn't.

[TDMVPDPOY]

timvp still high on blair, just like the scrub anderson....

how many more opportunities and wasting a roster spot on scrubs are u guys going to start looking for changes...

[johnnySpurs]

There are teams with small forwards taller than Blair. If we MUST start an nonathletic fatass, I'd rather just roll with Curry...

Our depth at the center position is just atrocious.

[Axegrinder]

Blair should start...in Charlotte.

[TD 21]

I seriously doubt this will happen, but they could start out the season with Diaw playing the first 10 minutes, then playing Bonner the next 8 and Blair the final 6. That way, they keep the Duncan-Diaw tandem to start, they keep the Splitter-Bonner tandem and they open up some minutes for Blair alongside Duncan.

If the result is in doubt in the 4th, then I wouldn't repeat this, because then they'd end up with Blair closing. But even just getting him six minutes, they can get a better gauge of how much he's improved his jumper and if he's improved at all defensively. In that stretch, they could have Duncan be the roll man and have Blair spotting up. If he can space the floor adequately enough to not muck up the pick-and-roll, then there's no reason they can't get away with him playing next to Splitter; in which case they can bench Bonner.

[RuffnReadyOzStyle]

Start Grizz for 20 games, get his value up, then trade him, Neal and Bonner to the Bucks for Ilyasova... in my dreams... :depressed

[RuffnReadyOzStyle]

I honestly don't believe that Blair would be starting for any team that wasn't severely depleted up front or had issues like our team does. Blair is an energy big off the bench. His shortcomings are way too prevalent for him to ever be a starter. And unfortunately he has proven that he will get himself out of shape quickly. He needs to play to get some value so he can be traded. But he is what he is, a decent player on the block who seems to have forgotten how to rebound (which was his most useful ability), can't really shoot (though we'll see if this changes) and doesn't have the size to contest most players at his position because they're usually about 5 inches taller. Blair's a gimmick imo, he needs to go

You're right, he's more suited to be an energy big off the bench, but that doesn't really suit our team as has been covered ad nauseum.

If I went through the league I still reckon I could find 7-10 teams that he'd start on.

[therealtruth]

I seriously doubt this will happen, but they could start out the season with Diaw playing the first 10 minutes, then playing Bonner the next 8 and Blair the final 6. That way, they keep the Duncan-Diaw tandem to start, they keep the Splitter-Bonner tandem and they open up some minutes for Blair alongside Duncan.

If the result is in doubt in the 4th, then I wouldn't repeat this, because then they'd end up with Blair closing. But even just getting him six minutes, they can get a better gauge of how much he's improved his jumper and if he's improved at all defensively. In that stretch, they could have Duncan be the roll man and have Blair spotting up. If he can space the floor adequately enough to not muck up the pick-and-roll, then there's no reason they can't get away with him playing next to Splitter; in which case they can bench Bonner.

As good as Splitter-Bonner is we all know by know we can't rely on Bonner in the playoffs so what's the point?

[therealtruth]

Blair needs to start because he doesn't fit with Splitter?
sorry, can't agree with that kind of logic. after 3 seasons we can defintely say that Blair isn't starter quality by any stretch. and never will be. he will either become a somehow productive bench rotation player, or his career with the Spurs will come to an end. if Blair doesn't fit with Splitter you play Bonner or go small with Sjax at the 4.
you don't create a scenario to optimize the production of your 10th best player and therefore sacrifice better line ups.

Diaw in the S5 works. if he is in better shape this season, it will work out even better. Diaw from the bench would be nice. if you had a better player to take the starting spot. Blair isn't.

Exactly. I'm tired of that backwards reasoning.

[Leetonidas]

You're right, he's more suited to be an energy big off the bench, but that doesn't really suit our team as has been covered ad nauseum.

If I went through the league I still reckon I could find 7-10 teams that he'd start on.

No, Blair would not start for or almost a third of the league's teams, I completely disagree

[DMC]

It doesn't matter who starts at center. They will end up in the same place.

[DMC]

timvp (http://www.spurstalk.com/forums/member.php?u=8) still high on blair, just like the scrub anderson....

how many more opportunities and wasting a roster spot on scrubs are u guys going to start looking for changes...

You say this as if there are legit stars out there wanting the starting position for Blair money.

[Em-City]

Face it @RuffnReadyOzStyle (http://www.spurstalk.com/forums/member.php?u=1053), you've always had a soft spot for blair... I can't think of 5 teams he would be a starter with.

[timvp]

“DeJuan’s had an excellent camp. He’s been active at both ends of the floor. He’s trying to make better decisions and do what’s best for the group. His energy, his defense, his rebounding, those sorts of things, he’s really concentrated on; running the floor and working on being a more disciplined player. We’ve been real happy with what he’s done so far.”

Good to hear about DeJuan. I still doubt he'd last as the backup 4 next to Splitter but this gives hope that Pop will use Blair before Bonner.

[ALVAREZ6]

I have no problem with Dejuan starting. The Spurs clearly are not a super defensive team anymore, Blair can help on the offensive glass, throw his big ass body around causing havoc. Manu can get any big man with decent hands offense some buckets on offense, too. There's really nothing to lose for trying any new rotations at this point. I'd encourage it so they spread minutes out initially (put in a more consistent rotation closer to playoffs, 2nd half of season), find what works best.

[Drz]

The argument for Blair to not start is that per 100 possession, the Spurs score 7.8 points less on offense when he's on the court, and they give up 2.5 points more on defense. Ouch.

Numbers-wise, the best way to win games is to minimize his playing time. But when we do play him, we want to minimize his negative impact, and that can happen by looking at what 5-man rotations produce the highest net points (as timvp did). It's hard to judge the impact of the Blair-Duncan pairing because they pretty much always play together, so we don't know what it's like apart --- but, I'm 100% on board with timvp's reasoning, and I completely agree that it makes total sense to have them together. So while I agree Blair is best utilized with Duncan, where I disagree is that he should be utilized much at all. Diaw is a more efficient player, and the Spurs score more offense and give up less on defense when he's out there. The Diaw-Duncan pairing has been successful, and although I didn't split out the tables in the link below, it looks like his production with Duncan is better than his production with other players.

http://www.82games.com/1112/11SAS19.HTM <-- Blair stats
http://www.82games.com/1112/11SAS18.HTM <-- Diaw stats

If we're willing to go beyond the conventional, we should have Bonner start. He fails the eye test, but he not only passes the points/winning test, he crushes it. In 1300 minutes, the Spurs scored 8.3 more points on offense with Bonner out there, and were better on defense by 0.8 points. Like we seem to see every year, in 2011-2012 Bonner was once again the team leader in Spurs performance with him on the court vs. off. When you adjust for who he plays with, like we seem to see every year, in 2012 he was once again 4th on the team behind Duncan, Parker, and Ginobili.

Basically, if you want your team to score points and win games, you want Bonner. If you want your team to be athletic and have the look of a prototype team, you don't want Bonner.

http://www.82games.com/1112/11SAS14.HTM <-- Bonner stats
http://www.82games.com/1112/1112SAS.HTM <-- Team stats

[Seventyniner]

In the playoffs, you want to play your best 6 players heavy minutes, and beyond the 8th man, minutes should be very scarce. The 2012 Spurs had a lot of success in the regular season and first two playoff rounds playing 10-11 guys, but it has never been a winning recipe and that was proven again in the WCF.

The problem is that, of the Spurs' 8 best players, 4 are wings. Duncan, Parker, Ginobili, Leonard, Splitter, Jackson, Diaw, and Green are the 8 best, but only one is a PG. If Pop is willing to try giving Duncan and Ginobili big minutes in the playoffs (what do you have to lose?), I could see a 7-8 man playoff rotation that doesn't include Blair or Bonner at all, with at least one of Parker and Ginobili on the floor at all times to handle the ball; none of the potential backup PGs are in the top 8. If it didn't screw up the starting rotation so much, I could see Green dropped too if he starts to crap the bed again.

[ElNono]

This team has enough to make the playoffs without Ginger or Blair... Who cares if you win 50 instead of 60 regular season games? The alleged advantage gets neutered when Blair gets the shaft in the playoffs and Bonner shits the bed...

It's been time to move on in that department for a while now...

[DesignatedT]

I'd rather roll with Curry/Powell then Bonner/Blair.

If we could bring back a big that we think could help more with a package revolving around those two guys and a guy like Gary Neal I'd do it as well. Patty/De Colo will be enough to pick up what Neal leaves behind. We are so stacked.

[TDMVPDPOY]

blair is expendable now..

can have duncan paired with either splitter or diaw

diaw is the variance better then bonner/blair, who can spread the floor and play alongside any of the bigs on the team whether his starting or playin with the bigs of the bench

the emergence of curry or brown makes blair look like a scrub, both have their advantages and disadvantages, but not many holes in their game that can costs us against teams

[DMC]

Duncan won't see many minutes this season.

[therealtruth]

In the playoffs, you want to play your best 6 players heavy minutes, and beyond the 8th man, minutes should be very scarce. The 2012 Spurs had a lot of success in the regular season and first two playoff rounds playing 10-11 guys, but it has never been a winning recipe and that was proven again in the WCF.

The problem is that, of the Spurs' 8 best players, 4 are wings. Duncan, Parker, Ginobili, Leonard, Splitter, Jackson, Diaw, and Green are the 8 best, but only one is a PG. If Pop is willing to try giving Duncan and Ginobili big minutes in the playoffs (what do you have to lose?), I could see a 7-8 man playoff rotation that doesn't include Blair or Bonner at all, with at least one of Parker and Ginobili on the floor at all times to handle the ball; none of the potential backup PGs are in the top 8. If it didn't screw up the starting rotation so much, I could see Green dropped too if he starts to crap the bed again.

Tim and Manu can't play lots of minutes and still be effective. Especially if they take it easy during the season.

[timvp]

In the second preseason game, Pop played Diaw and Splitter off the bench together in the second half. Might have been a fluke but that combo worked pretty darn well. With Spitter's ability to roll to the basket, having a passer/facilitator like Diaw at power forward is extra beneficial. Add in Diaw's ability to shoot and Splitter would get a ton of space in that alignment.

[-21-]

You make some really good points but I'm still 50/50 about it. We'll just have to see what Pop goes with.

[timvp]

If Diaw starts, it GUARANTEES Bonner will be the backup power forward. Blair next to Splitter is an impossibility.

I'm not trying to brag but the season opener pretty much went how I expected if Blair wasn't going to start. If Diaw starts, it's either going to be Bonner or small ball next to Splitter. Pop is never going to go long stretches of time with Blair and Splitter together.

Honestly, I'm warming up to the idea of Jack and Kawhi splitting the backup power forward duties. Anything but Bonner at this point.

[letmk]

I'm not trying to brag but the season opener pretty much went how I expected if Blair wasn't going to start. If Diaw starts, it's either going to be Bonner or small ball next to Splitter. Pop is never going to go long stretches of time with Blair and Splitter together.

Honestly, I'm warming up to the idea of Jack and Kawhi splitting the backup power forward duties. Anything but Bonner at this point.

i would say anything but Blair at this point.

[Ice009]

i would say anything but Blair at this point.

I'd much rather Blair than Bonner. That is not even in question for me.

[jesterbobman]

If it means more Kawhi, even in backup PF minutes, that's a good thing. We don't really lose anything in rebounding with him there rather than Bonner, and the spacing is still fine.

[Ice009]

If it means more Kawhi, even in backup PF minutes, that's a good thing. We don't really lose anything in rebounding with him there rather than Bonner, and the spacing is still fine.

I'd prefer Jack and Kawhi at small ball 4 over both if that is the question.

[Spur|n|Austin]

If it means more Kawhi, even in backup PF minutes, that's a good thing. We don't really lose anything in rebounding with him there rather than Bonner, and the spacing is still fine.

Agree 100%

[therealtruth]

In the playoffs, you want to play your best 6 players heavy minutes, and beyond the 8th man, minutes should be very scarce. The 2012 Spurs had a lot of success in the regular season and first two playoff rounds playing 10-11 guys, but it has never been a winning recipe and that was proven again in the WCF.

The problem is that, of the Spurs' 8 best players, 4 are wings. Duncan, Parker, Ginobili, Leonard, Splitter, Jackson, Diaw, and Green are the 8 best, but only one is a PG. If Pop is willing to try giving Duncan and Ginobili big minutes in the playoffs (what do you have to lose?), I could see a 7-8 man playoff rotation that doesn't include Blair or Bonner at all, with at least one of Parker and Ginobili on the floor at all times to handle the ball; none of the potential backup PGs are in the top 8. If it didn't screw up the starting rotation so much, I could see Green dropped too if he starts to crap the bed again.

Not necessarily the case. Look at the minute distribution on the '07 team.

[Bruno]

I'm not trying to brag but the season opener pretty much went how I expected if Blair wasn't going to start. If Diaw starts, it's either going to be Bonner or small ball next to Splitter. Pop is never going to go long stretches of time with Blair and Splitter together.

Oh, you are trying to brag but you shouldn't.
Going from Blair not playing to "it's because Pop doesn't want to pair Blair with Splitter" is an as wild assumption as it can be.
Blair not playing is likely the result of Pop simply considering him as Spurs 5th best big.

Something to notice from this game is Pop going int he 4th quarter with the Splitter/Duncan combo for a couple of minutes. It's even more noticeable that Hornets weren't playing big with Anderson at the PF slot. Removing both Blair and Bonner from the rotation by a combination of small ball and some Duncan/Splitter pairing is the way to go for Spurs.

BTW, so much for Pop souring on Tiago...

[timvp]

Bump.





DeJuan Blair starting tonight in place of Boris Diaw.

Sean Elliott on the lineup change: "This is not a demotion for Boris Diaw. The Spurs are trying to balance out the lineup. If you remember years ago when Manu Ginobili left the starting lineup and went to the bench, this is almost the same thing. The Spurs like the combination of Tim Duncan and DeJuan Blair to start off the ballgame. And then you have an experienced Boris Diaw playing alongside Tiago Splitter in that second unit. They're just trying to find a way to balance out the lineup and figure out a way all the bigs can get on the floor."


:smokin




I really think this is going to be great for Splitter. Diaw is going to spoonfeed Splitter and that added spacing from Diaw's perimeter game will make Splitter even more deadly in pick-and-rolls. Blair will produce next to Duncan, while Duncan can get out of the paint and get back to the perimeter to conserve his body. Oh, and Bonner becomes the fifth big.

Personally, I'm hoping this sticks until either the Spurs acquire another big or the playoffs begin.

[timtonymanu]

Interesting quote by Sean. I like the zero mention of Bonner being in the rotation. I hope that is the case.

Hopefully Blair just plays smart, but that's asking for a lot.

[bklynspursfan]

This is not gonna work on Tuesday night. Bynum got 30 boards on us last year. I like Diaw or Splitter to guard Pau.

[therealtruth]

Bump.





DeJuan Blair starting tonight in place of Boris Diaw.

Sean Elliott on the lineup change: "This is not a demotion for Boris Diaw. The Spurs are trying to balance out the lineup. If you remember years ago when Manu Ginobili left the starting lineup and went to the bench, this is almost the same thing. The Spurs like the combination of Tim Duncan and DeJuan Blair to start off the ballgame. And then you have an experienced Boris Diaw playing alongside Tiago Splitter in that second unit. They're just trying to find a way to balance out the lineup and figure out a way all the bigs can get on the floor."


:smokin




I really think this is going to be great for Splitter. Diaw is going to spoonfeed Splitter and that added spacing from Diaw's perimeter game will make Splitter even more deadly in pick-and-rolls. Blair will produce next to Duncan, while Duncan can get out of the paint and get back to the perimeter to conserve his body. Oh, and Bonner becomes the fifth big.

Personally, I'm hoping this sticks until either the Spurs acquire another big or the playoffs begin.

The reason to like it is gets Bonner out of the rotation. At the same time I don't like the fact that it weakens the defense. Pop can't say he's serious about defense by making a move like this. I believe all the stats show our defense is a lot better than a year ago. Because our 10th best player can't play with Splitter Pop is going to screw up the lineups and weaken the defense. Makes perfect sense.

[Uriel]

When I first read this post, I didn't warm to the idea at all and I preferred to simply keep the bigman rotation in the playoffs last year, with Blair being relegated to the fifth bigman role. But after reading it again today, I'm beginning to warm to the idea. The resurgence of our defense in the early part of the season thus far has been dependent on Duncan playing at an elite level, and conserving that for the playoffs will be integral. And I've been a long-time Bonner apologist, but it's become harder and harder to deny that he's worthless in the playoffs.

Hopefully we can keep this rotation to raise Blair's value and trade him in midseason along with Stephen Jackson for Josh Smith.

[Capt Bringdown]

Blair might make a good junior high coach or motivational speaker, but he doesn't belong in the NBA.

[Obstructed_View]

The starters can always use energy, and Blair provides it far better than Diaw does. Having Diaw as a facilitator with the second unit also fits into the lack of a true backup point guard.

[ElNono]

Not gonna last... the reason tonight was Bonner being out with the flu... Once Bonner can play, one of Blair or Tiago is gonna get demoted again

[freetiago]

still too stupid and cant finish around the rim anymore
basically worthless now
ive wanted diaw to play more minutes
i think he played 40 mins with the bobcats and they were a top tier defensive team
diaw should be able to handle around 33 minutes and get some time with the second unit

[TDMVPDPOY]

why cant the spurs just dump blair at whotter burger and let them deal with him...fkn spurs FO fail

[Drom John]

Bonner was sick. So it's possible that Pop moved Blair from #5 to #2 for just last night.

[will_spurs]

One of the main reasons to start Blair is that he tends to be horrible off the bench, so if he's going to get some minutes anyway he might as well start, have a semblance of production, and not whine on Twitter.

[Poolboy5623]

There are teams with small forwards taller than Blair. If we MUST start an nonathletic fatass, I'd rather just roll with Curry...

Our depth at the center position is just atrocious.

Um ..there are teams with guards bigger than dejaun!! If he's starting its not good for the Spurs..that's all there is to it. He should getting getaround 10-15 min a game, at most! The fact they have no one else playing in his place is their own fault. His size has been exploited for awhile now.

[Poolboy5623]

One of the main reasons to start Blair is that he tends to be horrible off the bench, so if he's going to get some minutes anyway he might as well start, have a semblance of production, and not whine on Twitter.

This is the nba, not junior high..you dont have to play guys just to make them happy...his whining will get him released eventually, and I don't see teams lining up to sign him. Tractor trailer 2.0.

[will_spurs]

This is the nba, not junior high..you dont have to play guys just to make them happy...his whining will get him released eventually, and I don't see teams lining up to sign him. Tractor trailer 2.0.

Any decent coach will still utilize the available players in a way that maximizes their performance. As far as Blair is concerned, that means starting him.

[Fabbs]

Spurs record when Blair starts?

[Poolboy5623]

Spurs record when Blair starts?

Come on, man! There are spurs fans that actually want Blair to start(let alone play at all)? He has been awful so far this year and also seems to be a "mental midget." The spurs and dejuan need to go their seperate ways...sadly, though they don't have any better options:-(

[Fabbs]

I was fine with his starting in his 2nd year (2010-11) when the Spurs went like 50-15 (somethin like that) and then 2011-12 (started 62 of 64 games as Spurs nailed #1 seed) with Blair starting and felt since the chemistry/makeup/ATTITUDE was set almost the entire season long, the Spurs Head Coach should have just kept up the same rotation in the playoffs. At least for the starting lineup that had just gone a combined about 110-30 over two seasons. Instead Blair has NEVER started a Spurs playoff game and his minutes were cut in half in '11 and then 3/4ths last years playoffs as Coach Numb Nutts ran his post 2007 playoff record to about 4-12 in getting punked in the 1st round by Memphis with Matty Bonner and Dick Jefferson at the power forward spot and then last years 2-0 to 2-4 in the OKC shrivelfest.

Now? I find it hard to believe a guy with no ACLs can hold up as long as Blair has. I'd rather we had taken the Championship with Blair continuing starting in 2010 and now I'd like to see Splittsville start alongside Duncan.

At any rate, yeah, I'd like to see the combined career record when Blair started alongside Timmy Dunkar.

CoachRumpHumpermvp
Why don't you look it up yourself?
If nobody else has it handy i just might do that. :)

[Poolboy5623]

They dont win trophies for regular season records...and you don't continue to start a player in the playoffs, after he's been exposed by much better teams. You want to know what their record is with dejuan starting? I'll say how many titles have they won with DeJuan even on the team? Face it, when he's starting he immediately becomes the weak link against most teams that are worth a damn.

[superjames1992]

We should have never drafted DeJuan. He played for the University of Pittsburgh which makes him cancerous right from the start. Is it a coincidence that we haven't won a Title since he got here?

Probably.

[Fabbs]

They dont win trophies for regular season records...and you don't continue to start a player in the playoffs, after he's been exposed by much better teams. You want to know what their record is with dejuan starting? I'll say how many titles have they won with DeJuan even on the team? Face it, when he's starting he immediately becomes the weak link against most teams that are worth a damn.
Umm then why start him all year long if you *know* he's going to be exposed in the playoffs?
Pop-n-Bonner.

[Sean Cagney]

I'd much rather Blair than Bonner. That is not even in question for me.

Ehhhhhhhhh this is sad in 012 we are still arguing over these two bums :( This is seriously pathetic thinking either can start in this league. I wish the Spurs had another big besides the great one.

[ChumpDumper]

At any rate, yeah, I'd like to see the combined career record when Blair started alongside Timmy Dunkar.

CoachRumpHumpermvp
If nobody else has it handy i just might do that. :)Doubt it.

[Frenchie]

Tonight in his radio show, Tony Parker just said exactly what timvp wanted to said at the beginning of this topic. He also said that's a way to get Bonner out of the rotation.

[racm]

We should have never drafted DeJuan. He played for the University of Pittsburgh which makes him cancerous right from the start. Is it a coincidence that we haven't won a Title since he got here?

Probably.

The Spurs haven't won a title since Tim Duncan was named to his last All-NBA First Team selection. Coincidence?


Tonight in his radio show, Tony Parker just said exactly what timvp wanted to said at the beginning of this topic. He also said that's a way to get Bonner out of the rotation.

:stirpot:

[Paranoid Pop]

Tonight in his radio show, Tony Parker just said exactly what timvp wanted to said at the beginning of this topic. He also said that's a way to get Bonner out of the rotation.

He didn't say that, he just said that Bonner was playing a bit less.

[Josepatches_]

I don't care if he starts in November or December.

But It's not a good sign when you have to change your rotation in the playoffs like we did last 2 seasons. You should play your playoff rotation after the all-star break to build chemistry.

[DAF86]

Blair must be traded away, he's a fucking cancer.

[DAF86]

Bonner > Blair

Internet Explorer > Blair

Bag of shit > Blair

Fuck you timvp for making this thread and fuck Pop for going through with it.

[timvp]

Tonight in his radio show, Tony Parker just said exactly what timvp wanted to said at the beginning of this topic. He also said that's a way to get Bonner out of the rotation.
:smokin



Fuck you timvp for making this thread and fuck Pop for going through with it.

:depressed

[crc21209]

When Bonner comes in and makes an immediate impact in the 4th quarter, that's not good news for Diaw, Splitter, and Blair...

[therealtruth]

When Bonner comes in and makes an immediate impact in the 4th quarter, that's not good news for Diaw, Splitter, and Blair...

You can't allow yourself to get fooled by Bonner. He's going to disappear when you need him the most.

[elemento]

So SA has to start a guy that plays 0 defense next to Duncan because that means less PT for Bonner? How does it make any sense? If Bonner hurts the team, then ship his ass or simply let him at the bench as a cheerleader.

Isn't easier to start the better player (Diaw) with Duncan and then run P&R plays with Blair and Splitter in the 2nd unit? I don't buy Blair starting. It won't take long until Pop takes him out of the rotation and he starts with the annoying tweets again.