Romney takes lead in electoral vote?

[CosmicCowboy]

interesting.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/2012_elections_electoral_college_map.html

I actually want to see them end up exactly tied and have the house give it to Romney/Ryan and watch everybody heads explode in here...:lol

[Wild Cobra]

interesting.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/2012_elections_electoral_college_map.html

I actually want to see them end up exactly tied and have the house give it to Romney/Ryan and watch everybody heads explode in here...:lol
LOL...

That would be funny!

[George Gervin's Afro]

Doesn't the Senate vote on the VP in the event 270 isn't reached? It would be great to have Romney voted by the House, Biden by the Senate which would then mean that the 50/50 Senate would be democratically controlled.. you could then have the VP dictating what passes and what doesn't in the Senate.. talk about heads exploding..

[baseline bum]

interesting.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/2012_elections_electoral_college_map.html

I actually want to see them end up exactly tied and have the house give it to Romney/Ryan and watch everybody heads explode in here...:lol

There would be rioting on a huge scale if that happens. I'm rooting for that outcome too.

[baseline bum]

Overall though, I think Romney won this election in the first debate and I'd be surprised to see Uncle Tom back.

[TeyshaBlue]

Doesn't the Senate vote on the VP in the event 270 isn't reached? It would be great to have Romney voted by the House, Biden by the Senate which would then mean that the 50/50 Senate would be democratically controlled.. you could then have the VP dictating what passes and what doesn't in the Senate.. talk about heads exploding..

I think you're right. That would be an absolute hoot!

[DarrinS]

2012 vs 2008

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/election_2012_vs_election_2008_four_years_ago_toda y.html

[boutons_deux]

interesting.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/2012_elections_electoral_college_map.html

I actually want to see them end up exactly tied and have the house give it to Romney/Ryan and watch everybody heads explode in here...:lol

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/author/nate-silver/

[ElNono]

Pennsylvania isn't a tossup at this point, especially after the voter ID law was suspended, IMO.

[Th'Pusher]

In the toss up states, Obama is up in all but two. Conservative's political weenies are getting extremely hard over a race they should have had firmly in hand since day one :lol

[kamikazi_player]

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/author/nate-silver/
Shhhh....give them hope.

[Fpoonsie]

Doesn't the Senate vote on the VP in the event 270 isn't reached? It would be great to have Romney voted by the House, Biden by the Senate which would then mean that the 50/50 Senate would be democratically controlled.. you could then have the VP dictating what passes and what doesn't in the Senate.. talk about heads exploding..

:lol

[WARRIORNATION]

NOBAMA2012

obama took a bad economy and made it worse!!! give someone else a chance, Romney/Ryan 2012.

[Jacob1983]

It's going to be close and probably won't be decided until 11pm or midnight or later on election night. Brace yourselves.

[Latarian Milton]

by winning the debate romney rescued his campaign from what would've otherwise been an overwhelming victory for the democrats, and even if he ends up losing the election he still deserves credit for verbally owning president obama and the democrats on the debates tbh

[Jacob1983]

I want to see the weeping faces of Obama koolaid drinkers upset and paranoid that evil Mormon sexist Willard is magically going to ban abortion in America. That will be funny.

[Juggity]

Obama's debate bounce incoming

[Jacob1983]

Is it invisible? LMAO evil Mormon Willard being tied with Obama with women voters. Isn't Willard suppose to ban abortion and put women back in the kitchen if he is president?

[kamikazi_player]

I want to see the weeping faces of Obama koolaid drinkers upset and paranoid that evil Mormon sexist Willard is magically going to ban abortion in America. That will be funny.
Still thinking about suicide? Tonight might be your night.

[SnakeBoy]

Obama's debate bounce incoming

Uh...it appears Romney is getting the bounce. I know that flies in the face of the Romney lost because Obama didn't suck as bad analysis the left believes.

[Jacob1983]

I'm gonna laugh if the Mormon beats Barry. There will be a lot of sad faces on election night if that happens.

[Wild Cobra]

Does anyone think the black electorate, statistically, will have the same incentive for turnout numbers as they did in 2008?

[Wild Cobra]

I'm gonna laugh if the Mormon beats Barry. There will be a lot of sad faces on election night if that happens.
I'll bet the bigots against Mormons will cry racism though.

[Jacob1983]

I think Obama will lose some black voters, young voters, and people that voted for him in 2008 because he has sucked ass in his first term as president. And he can't blame Bush anymore because he's the fuckin' president. Bush is hiding in Texas probably in the Batcave in his house.

[Wild Cobra]

I think Obama will lose some black voters, young voters, and people that voted for him in 2008 because he has sucked ass in his first term as president. And he can't blame Bush anymore because he's the fuckin' president. Bush is hiding in Texas probably in the Batcave in his house.

I completely agree. When polled, they will say they will vote for Obama, but then not vote in the same numbers as they did in 2008.

[Jacob1983]

Obama has no one to blame for that but himself. He put those fairy tale unrealistic expectations and goals on himself back in 2008 that he probably knew that he couldn't deliver on if he became president. He needs to own that.

[Wild Cobra]

If he thought he could deliver, then he is even more inept than I thought. The people who believed him are pretty stupid as well.

[FuzzyLumpkins]

Ahh how cute it's a red team circle jerk.

[Jacob1983]

I'm not on team red or red team or whatever hipsters are saying. Btw, I'm probably going to vote for Gary Johnson or Virgil Goode. Thank you.

[FuzzyLumpkins]

I'm not on team red or red team or whatever hipsters are saying. Btw, I'm probably going to vote for Gary Johnson or Virgil Goode. Thank you.

Hipster? Do you even know what the term means? I wish there was some new political paradigm to be hip to but there isn't.

That being said, if you are voting third party I salute you. :toast

[boutons_deux]

Gallup vs. the World (http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/10/18/gallup-vs-the-world/)
The Gallup national tracking poll now shows a very strong lead for Mitt Romney. However, its results are deeply inconsistent with the results that other polling firms are showing in the presidential race, and the Gallup poll has a history of performing very poorly when that is the case.


http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/author/nate-silver/

[George Gervin's Afro]

With all due respect, there were/are many on this board who derided the red teamers when they claimed fraud with the polls a couple of weeks ago...... so none of you should come out and complain about how wrong polls can be now......

[Latarian Milton]

guess the election this year will come into a similar ending like the 48' one where truman came back from 36% approval rate something and earned a 2nd term presidency. romney & his team were brilliant on the debates but i still believe sadly and unwillingly that obama will win reelection

[djohn2oo8]

I think thise deserves an ELE. Though as if anyone (Darrin, Yoni, WC or CC) would take or honor it

[TeyshaBlue]

I'm not on team red or red team or whatever hipsters are saying. Btw, I'm probably going to vote for Gary Johnson or Virgil Goode. Thank you.

Beatnik!

[mavs>spurs]

Romney isnt actually leading in electorates..they might as well switch Ohio and Pennsylvania back from neutral to blue. Obama phones 4tw hello Cleveland.

[ploto]

Most of the national tracking polls (outside Gallup) show a relative tie ranging from Romney with a 2 point lead to Obama with a 3 point lead. New polls in Iowa and Wisconsin look stronger for Obama.

The analysis I have seen of national polls shows that Obama leads in general in the Northeast, Midwest, and West, but that Romney has enormous leads in the south. These numbers "skew" in a sense the national number relative to how the electoral college works. It does not matter if Romney wins Oklahoma by 35%, Arkansas by 25%, Alabama by 20% and Mississippi -- and Obama wins Ohio by 2% and Wisconsin by 4% -- they each still get 28 electoral votes.

[Spurminator]

The hipster candidate of choice is Grover Cleveland.

[Winehole23]

I'm a fan.

#VanDyck

[Juggity]

Uh...it appears Romney is getting the bounce. I know that flies in the face of the Romney lost because Obama didn't suck as bad analysis the left believes.

It took 4-5 days for the Romney bounce to manifest. We'll see pretty soon.

[jack sommerset]

I'm gonna laugh if the Mormon beats Barry. There will be a lot of sad faces on election night if that happens.

Sad faces in here. Happy faces across the USA. God bless

[CosmicCowboy]

Boutons head would explode.

[boutons_deux]

Boutons head would explode.

you wish, but it won't happen.

A lot of ignorant 99% "marans" who would vote Gecko and the Repugs into control of Federal govt will rue voting day.

[z0sa]

It took 4-5 days for the Romney bounce to manifest. We'll see pretty soon.

We'll know tomorrow what kind of bounce he got. I would actually assume neither candidate changes much.

[boutons_deux]

trending looking great for the 99%

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/author/nate-silver/

[JoeChalupa]

I've said from the beginning that that this election was the GOP's to lose and it looked that way but now my gut feeling is that the 1st debate did have a much greater impact than many thought and Romney shined again at that dinner the other night with Obama. Romney is picking up steam.

[MannyIsGod]

If anyone wants to put some money where their mouths are let me know and we can discuss favorable odds for Obama based on the RCP data.

[DJ Mbenga]

Gallup ain't doing anything wrong. Its just this weird dynamic where Romney has gained in states where he has no shot or will win anyways so its not reflected in swing states.
its no secret its al, about Ohio I wonder how early voting will play. When it opened up Obama was leading big and he has the big time lead in early voting. Its like when Gingrich made his rise in Florida only to get screwed when people had already voted for Romney already.

[CosmicCowboy]

If anyone wants to put some money where their mouths are let me know and we can discuss favorable odds for Obama based on the RCP data.

I've already got $100 on Obama.

[djohn2oo8]

Gallup ain't doing anything wrong. Its just this weird dynamic where Romney has gained in states where he has no shot or will win anyways so its not reflected in swing states.
its no secret its al, about Ohio I wonder how early voting will play. When it opened up Obama was leading big and he has the big time lead in early voting. Its like when Gingrich made his rise in Florida only to get screwed when people had already voted for Romney already.
Obama's got Ohio.

[MannyIsGod]

Sure but if you think Obama now trails in the EV projections then now would be the time to bet on Romney.

Seriously, anyone who thinks Romney is ahead should let me know so we can place some bets. I'm not expecting anyone to step up to the plate.

[z0sa]

Obama's got Ohio.

Link?

[CosmicCowboy]

*pfft* this thing is going to the wire. If you don't live in a swing state and aren't a political junkie half the people don't even realize yet we are voting for President in 2 1/2 weeks.

[CosmicCowboy]

Sure but if you think Obama now trails in the EV projections then now would be the time to bet on Romney.

Seriously, anyone who thinks Romney is ahead should let me know so we can place some bets. I'm not expecting anyone to step up to the plate.

Give me 2/1 and I'll take Romney for $50. That way no matter who wins, I win.

[djohn2oo8]

Link?

The link is where Romney was in favor of letting the auto industry fail. And this
http://m.washingtonpost.com/blogs/election-2012/wp/2012/10/19/spin-cycle-on-in-ohio-for-obama-romney-camps/

[djohn2oo8]

Obama up 26 points in early voting in Ohio.

[z0sa]

K

[ChumpDumper]

Obama up 26 points in early voting in Ohio.Obvious fraud.

[FuzzyLumpkins]

K

That dude that boutons keeps citing from the NYT posts a collection of the swing state local polls and that showed Ohio with a 1 point favor for Obama ie a statistical dead heat.

[djohn2oo8]

Obvious fraud.
Obvious. Any poll with Obama up is fraud - Darrin

[DUNCANownsKOBE]

Obvious. Any poll with Obama up is fraud - Darrin
Unemployment rate going down is a fraudulent liberal conspiracy!

[djohn2oo8]

Unemployment rate going down is a fraudulent liberal conspiracy!

:lol

[MannyIsGod]

Give me 2/1 and I'll take Romney for $50. That way no matter who wins, I win.

Why would I give you 2/1 when you're thinking Romney just took the lead? At best I should give you 1:1

[CosmicCowboy]

Why would I give you 2/1 when you're thinking Romney just took the lead? At best I should give you 1:1

You missed the big question mark behind it? I'm not stupid, Manny. I just posted the link.

[JoeChalupa]

A CNN/ORC International poll taken after the second presidential debate finds that 49% of likely voters in Florida support Mitt Romney and 48% back President Barack Obama.

I don't think next weeks debate matters. Mitt happens.

[djohn2oo8]

A CNN/ORC International poll taken after the second presidential debate finds that 49% of likely voters in Florida support Mitt Romney and 48% back President Barack Obama.

I don't think next weeks debate matters. Mitt happens.
I dont think any of them do. People already know who they're voting for. And I wouldn't count CNN as a credible poll.

[Nbadan]

Gop firing up the base with all this talk of a Romney lead because of a bogus Gallup poll. Gallups polls are officially skewed.

When you look at the swing states though, it looks overwhelmingly Obama...


Oct. 18: Obama Gains in Forecast on Resiliency in Swing State Polls
By NATE SILVER


One of the risks in focusing too much on the results of any one poll, like the Gallup national tracking poll, is that you may lose sight of the bigger picture.

On Thursday, that story was one of President Obama continuing to hold leads in most polls of critical states. Of the 13 polls of swing states released on Thursday, Mr. Obama held leads in 11 of them.

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/10/19/oct-18-obama-gains-in-forecast-on-resiliency-in-swing-state-polls/


Mr. Obama may be benefiting from early voting in Iowa, where both polls and statistics on ballot requests suggest that he is well ahead among those who have voted so far.

In Nevada, Democrats made a late surge in voter registration totals. They have about a 70,000 voter lead in registration totals among active registered voters, or 120,000 voters considering inactive voters as well.

There is also some suggestion in the data that the polls with the most recent field dates are slightly stronger for Mr. Obama than those that were conducted earlier in the week. An EPIC/MRA poll of Michigan, for instance, conducted entirely on Wednesday, showed him with a six-point lead there — up from three points in a survey the same firm had conducted earlier in October.

As of Thursday, there were not yet clear signs of a shift toward Mr. Obama in national polls — and certainly not in the Gallup national tracking poll, which has had Mr. Romney continuing to make gains and put him ahead by seven points among likely voters on Thursday.

Mr. Obama did draw into a tie, however, in Public Policy Polling’s most recent national poll, improving from a four-point deficit in a poll they conducted last weekend.

Online polls conducted by Google Consumer Surveys on Wednesday and Thursday, after this week’s presidential debate, also showed Mr. Obama with nominal leads of 2.2 and 0.6 points, reversing a modest advantage they had given to Mr. Romney before this Tuesday’s presidential debate.

Still, if the national polls tell a more equivocal tale than the Gallup poll alone would imply, it’s really in the state polls where Mr. Obama’s strength lies — as has largely been the case all year.

Mr. Obama’s chances of winning the Electoral College improved to 70.4 percent on Thursday from 65.7 percent on Wednesday, according to the forecast.

Obama has broken Silvers area of concern again at 70%. Barring a catastrophic collapse by Obama in the third debate the country could go as high as 70 percent Obama in the final days till the election.......


On a separate note, Joe Pags is a piece of shit liar. Obama never had a super majority Pags. You piece of shit.

[Nbadan]

Early voting in swing states overwhelmingly.................................... Obama

Iowa


The only state where we have a large amount of data is showing very good signs for Democrats. About 219,000 Iowans have cast early votes or absentee ballots (13.4 percent of the state’s 2008 turnout), and so far the breakdown is 53 percent Democratic and 28 percent Republican.

Republicans have been steadily narrowing that gap, but right now, Democrats are exceeding their 2008 early voting performance, when they carried the early vote by 18 points and President Obama won the state by nine points.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/wp/2012/10/15/why-the-early-vote-looks-good-for-democrats/

[Nbadan]

Florida


For the first time, we have some good data in this all-important swing state. In-person early voting doesn’t start until Oct. 27, but according to the Miami Herald, about 284,000 people have cast absentee ballots so far (about 3.4 percent of the total 2008 turnout). And the breakdown is pretty evenly split — 44 percent Republican and 40 percent Democrat.

But that’s not as good for the GOP as it might seem.

A Republican National Committee memo last week cited its their edge in absentee ballots in a number of states, including Florida. But you need to look at those numbers in context. The Herald’s Marc Caputo notes that, at this point in 2008, Republicans had a 16-point advantage in absentee ballots and still lost the state. Today, that advantage is just four points.

Indeed, Republicans generally perform better among absentee voters than among in-person early voters. So it’s not surprising to see Republicans winning the absentee vote in Florida or other states. The question is by how much.

In-person early voting is generally a much bigger piece of the pie than absentee voting when it comes to the early vote, but Florida Republicans reduced the amount of time that in-person early voting is available.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/wp/2012/10/15/why-the-early-vote-looks-good-for-democrats/

[Nbadan]

Ohio


It’s a little harder to suss out which side has the early advantage in Ohio, because the state doesn’t have party registration. Instead, we have to look at which counties (blue counties or red counties) are voting more often.

So far, the picture is a little mixed. Democrats appear to be benefiting from bigger early turnout in heavily Democratic Franklin County (home to Columbus), where more than 62,000 people have cast early votes (about 11 percent of the county’s total 2008 turnout). While the county comprised less than 10 percent of the state’s overall turnout in 2008, it’s so far been 23 percent of the early vote in 2012.

Another Democratic area — Cincinnati-based Hamilton County — is making up about 11 percent of the early vote, even though it was only 7 percent of the overall turnout four years ago.

[Wild Cobra]

Obvious fraud.
No.

Just reflects on the type of people who vote early.... maybe...

[Nbadan]

Colorado


FiveThirtyEight Projections `Dem `Rep ``````Margin
Polling average ```````````47.7 `46.3 Obama +1.4
Adjusted polling average `46.9 `47.1 Romney +0.2
State fundamentals ``````47.8 `46.3 Obama +1.5
Now-cast ``````````````````47.0 47.0 `` Tie
Projected vote share ±4.1 49.6 49.3 Obama +0.3
Chance of winning 53% 47%

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/10/18/gallup-vs-the-world/

[Nbadan]

Iowa


FiveThirtyEight Projections Dem Rep Margin
Polling average 49.0 45.9 Obama +3.1
Adjusted polling average 48.0 46.6 Obama +1.4
State fundamentals 48.0 46.1 Obama +1.9
Now-cast 48.0 46.5 Obama +1.5
Projected vote share ±4.4 50.4 48.6 Obama +1.8
Chance of winning 66% 34%

[Nbadan]

No President has been recently elected without

Ohio


FiveThirtyEight Projections Dem Rep Margin
Polling average 48.3 44.9 Obama +3.4
Adjusted polling average 47.5 45.7 Obama +1.8
State fundamentals 47.2 46.8 Obama +0.4
Now-cast 47.5 45.8 Obama +1.7
Projected vote share ±3.8 50.3 48.3 Obama +2.0
Chance of winning 71% 29%

[Nbadan]

Pennsylvania


FiveThirtyEight Projections Dem Rep Margin
Polling average 49.1 44.2 Obama +4.9
Adjusted polling average 48.6 44.9 Obama +3.7
State fundamentals 50.0 44.1 Obama +5.9
Now-cast 48.8 44.8 Obama +4.0
Projected vote share ±3.5 51.6 47.3 Obama +4.3
Chance of winning 89% 11%

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/10/18/gallup-vs-the-world/

[Nbadan]

Wisconsin


FiveThirtyEight Projections Dem Rep Margin
Polling average 50.3 46.2 Obama +4.1
Adjusted polling average 49.4 47.1 Obama +2.3
State fundamentals 50.1 43.8 Obama +6.3
Now-cast 49.5 46.6 Obama +2.9
Projected vote share ±4.0 51.3 48.1 Obama +3.2
Chance of winning 79% 21%

[Latarian Milton]

hoping romeny will win the presidential election is like wishing them mavs, or any team not named the miami heat to win the championship in the coming season imho.

[Th'Pusher]

Obama to win the electoral college and lose the popular vote = constitution worshiping tea bagger's heads exploding. :toast

[symple19]

The hipster candidate of choice is Grover Cleveland.

Nah, I have an inside source that tells me that a wide majority of hipsters support the Whigs

[Nbadan]

I guess the GOP specializes in grasping at straws, but I'm just not seeing how Romney can win in the time he has left...the third debate will probably be more like the second than the first..and after that....an October surprise? at this point what else can the GOP accuse Obama of enough to effect swing states?