Intrade

[mavs>spurs]

Obama's chance of re-election has slipped all the way down to 52.7% and falling..the intrade doesn't lie. If you're a board liberal you'd better find that panic button and get your button pushing finger ready.

[DarrinS]

Didn't you hear? Obama has a firewall.

[mavs>spurs]

back up to 54.7

[Bartleby]

How to swing the prediction markets and boost Mitt Romney’s fortunes
By Brad Plumer , Updated: October 23, 2012

Political junkies and campaign reporters often pay close attention to Intrade, a prediction market where investors bet on things like the outcome of the 2012 presidential election. The idea is that the collective wisdom of traders can offer a more accurate take on events than the occasional poll. (It doesn’t hurt that Intrade correctly predicted the outcome of the 2008 election.)

But there’s an odd twist here. The betting markets can sometimes be swung — at least temporarily — by single traders who post extraordinarily large trades. That appears to have happened Tuesday morning, when a single investor spent about $17,800 on Intrade and boosted Mitt Romney’s fortunes considerably. For about six minutes.

Here’s the backstory: On Monday night, after the debate, Barack Obama was leading Romney on Intrade by around 60 percent to 40 percent. But at around 10:00 a.m. on Tuesday morning, Romney had surged to 48 percent. Was this evidence that the conventional wisdom was wrong? Had Romney actually won the debate handily? Or, perhaps, was the nosedive in the stock markets putting a dent in Obama’s re-election chances?

Neither. As economist Justin Wolfers pointed out on Twitter, the huge swing toward Romney appears to have been driven by a single trader who spent about $17,800 pushing Romney’s chances on Intrade up to 48 percent. But the surge only lasted about six minutes before other traders whittled the price back down to what they saw as a more accurate valuation. Romney’s odds of winning are now back at around 41 percent:

As Wolfers pointed out, this mysterious trader ended up overpaying by about $1,250 for shares that quickly collapsed in value. Was this just someone who made a bad trade? Or was somebody trying to influence Intrade odds in order to sway perceptions of the race? And, if so, was it worth $1,250 to jolt the markets for less than 10 minutes?


http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/ezra-klein/wp/2012/10/23/how-to-manipulate-prediction-markets-and-boost-mitt-romneys-fortunes/

[MannyIsGod]

MvS, I'll offer you a bet. If Romney wins, I'll leave the board for good. If Obama wins, you can never post on any Spurstalk subforum with any name ever again.

Lets see that Alpha male in you step up to the plate.

[mavs>spurs]

I didn't say he'd for sure win I said it's becoming a nail biter and if I was a liberal who thought he had it in the bag all this time I'd be nervous right now. It all boils down to whether or not the republicans in ohio can steal it like bush did in florida back in the day.

[DUNCANownsKOBE]

The Republican party cares way too much about the integrity of an election and stopping voter fraud to ever do something like that.

[MannyIsGod]

I didn't say he'd for sure win I said it's becoming a nail biter and if I was a liberal who thought he had it in the bag all this time I'd be nervous right now. It all boils down to whether or not the republicans in ohio can steal it like bush did in florida back in the day.

This is what someone backing down looks like. :tu At least you know your place.

[MannyIsGod]

TBH I'm not worried because what the fuck is the real difference if Romney gets elected? A bunch of GOP tea party people out there working for him will feel the way I feel now with Obama. He'll continue doing what Obama does now and the Democrats become the new party of no. Status quo either way.

[ElNono]

Current betting odds:
http://www.oddschecker.com/specials/politics-and-election/us-presidential-election/winner

[mavs>spurs]

This is what someone backing down looks like. :tu At least you know your place.

Lol thinking you're hard because some politician who wouldn't piss on you if you were on fire has a roughly equal chance of winning the election. Wow, everybody watch out we got a badass over here rofl. "Backing down" on the internet sounds about as funny as e-dating.

[Agloco]

MvS, I'll offer you a bet. If Romney wins, I'll leave the board for good. If Obama wins, you can never post on any Spurstalk subforum with any name ever again.

Lets see that Alpha male in you step up to the plate.


I didn't say he'd for sure win I said it's becoming a nail biter and if I was a liberal who thought he had it in the bag all this time I'd be nervous right now. It all boils down to whether or not the republicans in ohio can steal it like bush did in florida back in the day.


This is what someone backing down looks like. :tu At least you know your place.

LgBA1jA2-mo

[Jeff Van Gundy]

This is what someone backing down looks like. :tu At least you know your place.
:lol

[baseline bum]

TBH I'm not worried because what the fuck is the real difference if Romney gets elected? A bunch of GOP tea party people out there working for him will feel the way I feel now with Obama. He'll continue doing what Obama does now and the Democrats become the new party of no. Status quo either way.

I doubt it; the Republicans vote as a block and Romney will push his tax plan and Ryan's Medicare destruction / voucher system through via reconciliation (like Bush) if he wins and they can get to 50 in the Senate.

[ChumpDumper]

Lol thinking you're hard because some politician who wouldn't piss on you if you were on fire has a roughly equal chance of winning the election. Wow, everybody watch out we got a badass over here rofl. "Backing down" on the internet sounds about as funny as e-dating.Watching you back down is more entertaining that hearing about e-dating tbh.

[Latarian Milton]

it'd be the biggest presidential election upset if obama fails to win reelection. everything indicated an obama victory preceding the debates and it's such an irony the momentum turned 180 degree after the debates, knowing that obama is like one of the best rhetoricians on this planet (which was the main reason why he won 4yrs ago)

[FuzzyLumpkins]

I doubt it; the Republicans vote as a block and Romney will push his tax plan and Ryan's Medicare destruction / voucher system through via reconciliation (like Bush) if he wins and they can get to 50 in the Senate.

Yeah pretty much. The industrial base has combined with the evangelical base to create GOPtron. US churches preach the industrialist narrative as much as they do the fictions of Saul. I have heard a load of shit lately that we are stewards of God's wealth and that he has chosen to give it to us. It's an excuse to get around Jesus saying that the righteous give up their worldly trappings and it stinks if Hobbes-like divine right of kings bullshit.

The Dems do not have such solidarity. You have disillusioned GOP types that don't like the binity, every minorty group, women's groups, most non-Protestant religions, intellectuals, consumer groups, civil liberties types, etc. They don't have solidarity of purpose and you end up with an easy target to divide and conquer.

We desperately need better pluralism.

[boutons_deux]

"what the fuck is the real difference if Romney gets elected?"

AND if he gets the Senate and House, SS, Medicare, Medicaid, EPA, etc, etc will be killed. Financial regulation will be defunded, unenforced, or killed. The 1%'s destruction of the 99%'s America will approach completion. He may get a chance to nominate a extreme right-wing 1% JINO to SCOTUS. At very best, the constipation and corruption of Congress will continue and worsen.

[Clipper Nation]

TBH I'm not worried because what the fuck is the real difference if Romney gets elected? A bunch of GOP tea party people out there working for him will feel the way I feel now with Obama. He'll continue doing what Obama does now and the Democrats become the new party of no. Status quo either way.
I know I'd rather have just 4 more years of status quo gridlock and a liberty candidate in 2016 than 8 years of wars, drones, and total economic collapse, tbh....

[boutons_deux]

"liberty candidate in 2016"

:lol candidate! :lol

you get whatever candidate the 1% pays for.