Kai
10-31-2012, 05:20 PM
Ten players you can expect to see on new level (http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/story/_/page/PERDiem-121031/john-hollinger-all-breakout-team-2012-13)
James Harden benefited from playing alongside Russell Westbrook and Kevin Durant, right?
It makes sense, anyway. It seems like this should be true, as these are the only two other dynamic offensive players on the Oklahoma City Thunder, and one would presume that all the attention they draw would make life easier for Harden.
And thus, one would presume that he will have a hard time playing without those two now that he's with the Houston Rockets.
There's only one problem: This theory is total nonsense. Harden didn't benefit from playing with KD and Russ. In fact, the exact opposite is true.
Thanks to NBA.com's whiz-bang stats tool, we can see that Harden's per-minute scoring more than doubled when Durant was on the bench, from 14.9 points per 36 minutes to 31.2, and he did it with a higher shooting percentage and an absurdly high free throw rate. The same shift happened without Westbrook on the court, from 13.7 to 29.0, and again it was accompanied by a five-point jump in shooting percentage and a near-tripling of his free throw rate.
So the theory that he was riding his All-Star teammates' coattails was all wrong. It was more like the coattails suffocated him. With three star perimeter players on the floor and just one basketball, he was the one whose touches got squeezed, and it was his most quality looks that apparently were squeezed the most.
So what can be expected of Harden now that he's in Houston? Well, the potential for a big uptick in scoring is pretty scary. For starters, Harden averaged about 30 points per 36 minutes when one of his two star teammates was off the court, a figure that would make him the league leader in scoring at any reasonable minutes level.
But the other factor is that even if Harden's per-minute rates don't change at all, he is going to see a huge rise in his per-game stats simply because he'll be starting in Houston and playing roughly 36 minutes a game. (One might project Harden into the high 30s, except that he still has a fairly high foul rate for a wing player and this may cut into his minutes.)
Take Harden's averages from last season without any other adjustments, bump up the minutes to 36 a game, and you're looking at 19.3 points per game, with 4.2 assists thrown in. Factor in that Westbrook and Durant aren't around to crash his party, and his scoring average could be expected to climb into the low 20s. That's before considering that he's 23 and in his fourth season, which means he was likely to continue improving regardless.
You can see where I'm going with this. Harden might be the most hammer-over-the-head obvious candidate for the All-Breakout Team in all the years I've done this. The question isn't whether his numbers will jump, but rather how big the jump will be. A 20-5-5 type of season is well within range, although he may fall a bit short on the assists. Something wackier, along the lines of 23-5-6 and threatening to lead the league in free throw attempts, can't be ruled out.
As a result, Harden is the captain of my 10-man All-Breakout Team for this year, the players we can most expect to take a strong step forward this season.
As always, one important ground rule for the roster: No second-year players. C'mon people, that's like hitting fungoes. Every rookie from last season is likely to be better this season, in some cases dramatically. Surely you didn't need this news flash.
Instead we'll focus on third-year and older players, including a couple veterans who may be under the radar. For reference, here's last year's team, which also included Harden, as well as the NBA Most Improved Player Ryan Anderson and a couple other guys who didn't quite erupt the way we'd envisioned. (The Gerald Henderson era? Not so much).
And now, here are a few more guys that I expect to bust out this season:
Nikola Pekovic, Minnesota Timberwolves
When ESPN.com asked for our preseason award picks, I took Pekovic as the most improved player. This was a cynical choice, in that I don't think he'll actually improve so much as be recognized for doing for 82 games what he briefly did last season, but that's often how MIP awards come to pass.
Kevin Love's injury should also help, as it will establish the idea early that, hey, this Pekovic guy is pretty good. Last season, in 47 games, he averaged 20.6 points and 10.9 boards per 40 minutes and shot 56.4 percent, but he averaged only 26.9 minutes per game because he was backing up Darko Milicic for a while, and he got injured later in the season.
Now that he'll be a focal point offensively in Love's absence and will be starting all year, I'd expect Pekovic to average in the low 30s in minutes (he fouls too much to get more) and average something along the lines of 17 points and nine boards, with a shooting percentage in the low to mid-50s. Depending on how the story translates nationally, that could get him to the MIP.
Kevin Seraphin, Washington Wizards
Seraphin could potentially find himself boxed in by the more veteran combination of Emeka Okafor and Nene, but I suspect he'll still average about 30 minutes a game once one considers that (A) Seraphin is probably better than Okafor at this point, and (B) Nene likely will beg out of 15-20 games with assorted hangnails and ear-lobe contusions.
When Seraphin plays, he has shown he can play well. Last April, he emerged as a starter and averaged 15.5 points and 7.0 boards, flashing a vastly improved midrange jumper and a nice jump hook from the block. He turns 23 in December and took up the game at a late age, so there's still a lot of potential improvement on the way. He missed Washington's season opener, unfortunately, but look for him to establish himself as a solid frontcourt starter this season.
Dorell Wright, Philadelphia 76ers
Given the fact that the Sixers' other wings aren't really any good, and that Wright is the best shooter on a team that's somewhat starved for shooting, and that he had by far the best player efficiency rating of any Sixers wing in 2011-12, I'm surprised he isn't getting more attention.
Wright has had consecutive seasons with a PER better than the league average, has shot 36.5 percent on 3-pointers for his career, and despite how long he has been around he's only 26 years old and could still take another step forward. His competition for playing time is Nick Young, Jason Richardson and the wildly overrated Evan Turner. I can't imagine Wright not winning that battle and earning 30 or so minutes a game. If everything works out, he may average in the mid-teens for scoring and rank among the league leaders in 3-pointers.
Jeremy Lin, Houston Rockets
I find it fascinating that so many people seem to think Lin will be a flash in the pan. He has essentially no track of failure, playing well in his brief stints in the D-League and Golden State before his brief eruption with the Knicks last season. Additionally, he will play in a system that's tailor-made for point guards -- just ask Goran Dragic and Kyle Lowry, both of whom had career-best seasons in Kevin McHale's offense last season.
Yes, Lin has a high turnover rate and isn't a great outside shooter. He also draws fouls in bunches, rebounds unusually well for a point guard, and gets a lot of assists at the rim. Over the course of an 82-game season he may not match the heights of Linsanity -- virtually no player can -- but as long as his knee holds up he'll be an above-average starting point guard and should average something along the lines of 18 points and seven assists.
Gordon Hayward, Utah Jazz
Once the Jazz cut the crap with starting Raja Bell and Josh Howard and actually put their best players on the floor, Hayward emerged as one of the league's top young wing players. He averaged 16.1 points on 50.7 percent shooting in April, helping Utah's surprise playoff run, and, more encouragingly, he shot 42.2 percent on 3s after the All-Star break.
I'd like him even more if he could play at small forward full-time, as his ball skills are stretched as a shooting guard, but regardless the 22-year-old Hayward needs only more aggression and a bit more experience to start averaging in the mid-high teens for scoring. Between Hayward and second-year pro Alec Burks, this is one the league's most promising wing situations.
(While we're on the subject of Utah, Derrick Favors is a beast, but I left him off the team because it's not clear to me how much he'll play with Paul Millsap and Al Jefferson in front of him and Enes Kanter looking like one of the league's most improved players during the preseason. I do expect Utah to make a trade at some point to clear up the frontcourt logjam, but if it's not until February it won't help Favors' averages much.)
Paul George, Indiana Pacers
Danny Granger's knee injury is bad news for the Pacers, but it may be great news for George, who can finally play his natural small forward position and will undoubtedly get more touches until Granger is back in the lineup. He's the same age, size and position as Hayward (and coincidentally plays in Hayward's hometown), but unlike Hayward, George didn't show much in-season growth last season. Instead, his progress came in the offseason between his first and second campaigns.
Similarly, I'd look for another step forward from George in Season 3. He shot 38.5 percent on 3s last season and has some excellent ball skills, but tends to fade in and out of games and struggled at times with his decision-making. Granger's absence will force him to stay engaged offensively, and with his size and shooting ability he should be able to ramp up his usage with little decline in efficiency.
Andrea Bargnani, Toronto Raptors
Last season, Bargnani had a career-high in PER, which is pretty impressive considering he was nagged by injuries most of the campaign. But look back at his first few weeks and you realize there may be the potential for more: In 13 games before he was hurt, he averaged 23.5 points on 47.6 percent shooting, and also showed actual interest in things such as rebounding and defending.
This season, Bargnani can build on that, especially with fewer opposing centers beating on him now that rookie Jonas Valanciunas is manning the middle. While it's perhaps not fair to expect him to replicate that 13-game high-water mark over a full 82-game season, he still should be markedly better than the limited player who finished out the season (16.5 ppg, 39.2 percent shooting after his return). It doesn't seem unreasonable for him to average about 22-point, six-rebound range with solid percentages. If so, that could make him a borderline All-Star in the East*, especially if Toronto stays in the playoff race.
(* -- "In the East" has become the de rigeur shorthand phrase for "we know he's not really an All-Star, but he's pretty good, and would you just look at this sorry conference.")
Nicolas Batum, Portland Trail Blazers
Batum came off the bench at the start of last season and averaged only 30.4 minutes per game. There is no way on God's green Earth he plays that infrequently in 2012-13, not after the Blazers purged most of the veterans and handed Batum a $45 million deal in the offseason.
Even projecting last season's numbers to 35 minutes per game yields some solid output -- 16 points, five boards -- but one must also factor in that Batum turns 24 in December and is still improving, and that he'll likely get a lot more touches this season than with the more offensively talented club of a season ago. Batum's percentages may take a slight hit, especially the 3-point percentage since it was already likely at his upper limit, but look for him to average in the high teens while shooting in the mid-40s as the second option for a Blazers team that appears short of weapons this season.
Greg Monroe, Detroit Pistons
Monroe actually had a breakout performance last season, but since he's 22 and still improving, and since nobody outside the state of Michigan is aware of his existence, I thought he still warranted mentioning here.
Monroe's averages of 15.4 points and 9.6 boards last season were impressive enough, especially given his 52.1 percent shooting and underrated passing skill. But the thing that could make him an All-Star in the East* this season is that he played only 31.5 minutes per game last season. That happened even though his foul rate was fairly low for a big man, and with the Pistons' lack of other offensive weapons it seems fairly likely his playing time could bump into the 35-minute range.
If that happens, and Monroe continues on his upward trajectory, one can see how he might be able to maintain averages at or near the heralded 20-10 mark; again, accompanied by a shooting mark in the 50s and some of the best assist numbers among big men. While Monroe isn't as far along defensively as he is offensively, he is still one of the best young big men in the game. In fact, I would argue he is a more valuable player at this point than the more heralded DeMarcus Cousins. If the Pistons can stick around the playoff race until February -- not likely, but stranger things have happened -- a 20-10 mark should be enough to get him to Houston.
:hat
James Harden benefited from playing alongside Russell Westbrook and Kevin Durant, right?
It makes sense, anyway. It seems like this should be true, as these are the only two other dynamic offensive players on the Oklahoma City Thunder, and one would presume that all the attention they draw would make life easier for Harden.
And thus, one would presume that he will have a hard time playing without those two now that he's with the Houston Rockets.
There's only one problem: This theory is total nonsense. Harden didn't benefit from playing with KD and Russ. In fact, the exact opposite is true.
Thanks to NBA.com's whiz-bang stats tool, we can see that Harden's per-minute scoring more than doubled when Durant was on the bench, from 14.9 points per 36 minutes to 31.2, and he did it with a higher shooting percentage and an absurdly high free throw rate. The same shift happened without Westbrook on the court, from 13.7 to 29.0, and again it was accompanied by a five-point jump in shooting percentage and a near-tripling of his free throw rate.
So the theory that he was riding his All-Star teammates' coattails was all wrong. It was more like the coattails suffocated him. With three star perimeter players on the floor and just one basketball, he was the one whose touches got squeezed, and it was his most quality looks that apparently were squeezed the most.
So what can be expected of Harden now that he's in Houston? Well, the potential for a big uptick in scoring is pretty scary. For starters, Harden averaged about 30 points per 36 minutes when one of his two star teammates was off the court, a figure that would make him the league leader in scoring at any reasonable minutes level.
But the other factor is that even if Harden's per-minute rates don't change at all, he is going to see a huge rise in his per-game stats simply because he'll be starting in Houston and playing roughly 36 minutes a game. (One might project Harden into the high 30s, except that he still has a fairly high foul rate for a wing player and this may cut into his minutes.)
Take Harden's averages from last season without any other adjustments, bump up the minutes to 36 a game, and you're looking at 19.3 points per game, with 4.2 assists thrown in. Factor in that Westbrook and Durant aren't around to crash his party, and his scoring average could be expected to climb into the low 20s. That's before considering that he's 23 and in his fourth season, which means he was likely to continue improving regardless.
You can see where I'm going with this. Harden might be the most hammer-over-the-head obvious candidate for the All-Breakout Team in all the years I've done this. The question isn't whether his numbers will jump, but rather how big the jump will be. A 20-5-5 type of season is well within range, although he may fall a bit short on the assists. Something wackier, along the lines of 23-5-6 and threatening to lead the league in free throw attempts, can't be ruled out.
As a result, Harden is the captain of my 10-man All-Breakout Team for this year, the players we can most expect to take a strong step forward this season.
As always, one important ground rule for the roster: No second-year players. C'mon people, that's like hitting fungoes. Every rookie from last season is likely to be better this season, in some cases dramatically. Surely you didn't need this news flash.
Instead we'll focus on third-year and older players, including a couple veterans who may be under the radar. For reference, here's last year's team, which also included Harden, as well as the NBA Most Improved Player Ryan Anderson and a couple other guys who didn't quite erupt the way we'd envisioned. (The Gerald Henderson era? Not so much).
And now, here are a few more guys that I expect to bust out this season:
Nikola Pekovic, Minnesota Timberwolves
When ESPN.com asked for our preseason award picks, I took Pekovic as the most improved player. This was a cynical choice, in that I don't think he'll actually improve so much as be recognized for doing for 82 games what he briefly did last season, but that's often how MIP awards come to pass.
Kevin Love's injury should also help, as it will establish the idea early that, hey, this Pekovic guy is pretty good. Last season, in 47 games, he averaged 20.6 points and 10.9 boards per 40 minutes and shot 56.4 percent, but he averaged only 26.9 minutes per game because he was backing up Darko Milicic for a while, and he got injured later in the season.
Now that he'll be a focal point offensively in Love's absence and will be starting all year, I'd expect Pekovic to average in the low 30s in minutes (he fouls too much to get more) and average something along the lines of 17 points and nine boards, with a shooting percentage in the low to mid-50s. Depending on how the story translates nationally, that could get him to the MIP.
Kevin Seraphin, Washington Wizards
Seraphin could potentially find himself boxed in by the more veteran combination of Emeka Okafor and Nene, but I suspect he'll still average about 30 minutes a game once one considers that (A) Seraphin is probably better than Okafor at this point, and (B) Nene likely will beg out of 15-20 games with assorted hangnails and ear-lobe contusions.
When Seraphin plays, he has shown he can play well. Last April, he emerged as a starter and averaged 15.5 points and 7.0 boards, flashing a vastly improved midrange jumper and a nice jump hook from the block. He turns 23 in December and took up the game at a late age, so there's still a lot of potential improvement on the way. He missed Washington's season opener, unfortunately, but look for him to establish himself as a solid frontcourt starter this season.
Dorell Wright, Philadelphia 76ers
Given the fact that the Sixers' other wings aren't really any good, and that Wright is the best shooter on a team that's somewhat starved for shooting, and that he had by far the best player efficiency rating of any Sixers wing in 2011-12, I'm surprised he isn't getting more attention.
Wright has had consecutive seasons with a PER better than the league average, has shot 36.5 percent on 3-pointers for his career, and despite how long he has been around he's only 26 years old and could still take another step forward. His competition for playing time is Nick Young, Jason Richardson and the wildly overrated Evan Turner. I can't imagine Wright not winning that battle and earning 30 or so minutes a game. If everything works out, he may average in the mid-teens for scoring and rank among the league leaders in 3-pointers.
Jeremy Lin, Houston Rockets
I find it fascinating that so many people seem to think Lin will be a flash in the pan. He has essentially no track of failure, playing well in his brief stints in the D-League and Golden State before his brief eruption with the Knicks last season. Additionally, he will play in a system that's tailor-made for point guards -- just ask Goran Dragic and Kyle Lowry, both of whom had career-best seasons in Kevin McHale's offense last season.
Yes, Lin has a high turnover rate and isn't a great outside shooter. He also draws fouls in bunches, rebounds unusually well for a point guard, and gets a lot of assists at the rim. Over the course of an 82-game season he may not match the heights of Linsanity -- virtually no player can -- but as long as his knee holds up he'll be an above-average starting point guard and should average something along the lines of 18 points and seven assists.
Gordon Hayward, Utah Jazz
Once the Jazz cut the crap with starting Raja Bell and Josh Howard and actually put their best players on the floor, Hayward emerged as one of the league's top young wing players. He averaged 16.1 points on 50.7 percent shooting in April, helping Utah's surprise playoff run, and, more encouragingly, he shot 42.2 percent on 3s after the All-Star break.
I'd like him even more if he could play at small forward full-time, as his ball skills are stretched as a shooting guard, but regardless the 22-year-old Hayward needs only more aggression and a bit more experience to start averaging in the mid-high teens for scoring. Between Hayward and second-year pro Alec Burks, this is one the league's most promising wing situations.
(While we're on the subject of Utah, Derrick Favors is a beast, but I left him off the team because it's not clear to me how much he'll play with Paul Millsap and Al Jefferson in front of him and Enes Kanter looking like one of the league's most improved players during the preseason. I do expect Utah to make a trade at some point to clear up the frontcourt logjam, but if it's not until February it won't help Favors' averages much.)
Paul George, Indiana Pacers
Danny Granger's knee injury is bad news for the Pacers, but it may be great news for George, who can finally play his natural small forward position and will undoubtedly get more touches until Granger is back in the lineup. He's the same age, size and position as Hayward (and coincidentally plays in Hayward's hometown), but unlike Hayward, George didn't show much in-season growth last season. Instead, his progress came in the offseason between his first and second campaigns.
Similarly, I'd look for another step forward from George in Season 3. He shot 38.5 percent on 3s last season and has some excellent ball skills, but tends to fade in and out of games and struggled at times with his decision-making. Granger's absence will force him to stay engaged offensively, and with his size and shooting ability he should be able to ramp up his usage with little decline in efficiency.
Andrea Bargnani, Toronto Raptors
Last season, Bargnani had a career-high in PER, which is pretty impressive considering he was nagged by injuries most of the campaign. But look back at his first few weeks and you realize there may be the potential for more: In 13 games before he was hurt, he averaged 23.5 points on 47.6 percent shooting, and also showed actual interest in things such as rebounding and defending.
This season, Bargnani can build on that, especially with fewer opposing centers beating on him now that rookie Jonas Valanciunas is manning the middle. While it's perhaps not fair to expect him to replicate that 13-game high-water mark over a full 82-game season, he still should be markedly better than the limited player who finished out the season (16.5 ppg, 39.2 percent shooting after his return). It doesn't seem unreasonable for him to average about 22-point, six-rebound range with solid percentages. If so, that could make him a borderline All-Star in the East*, especially if Toronto stays in the playoff race.
(* -- "In the East" has become the de rigeur shorthand phrase for "we know he's not really an All-Star, but he's pretty good, and would you just look at this sorry conference.")
Nicolas Batum, Portland Trail Blazers
Batum came off the bench at the start of last season and averaged only 30.4 minutes per game. There is no way on God's green Earth he plays that infrequently in 2012-13, not after the Blazers purged most of the veterans and handed Batum a $45 million deal in the offseason.
Even projecting last season's numbers to 35 minutes per game yields some solid output -- 16 points, five boards -- but one must also factor in that Batum turns 24 in December and is still improving, and that he'll likely get a lot more touches this season than with the more offensively talented club of a season ago. Batum's percentages may take a slight hit, especially the 3-point percentage since it was already likely at his upper limit, but look for him to average in the high teens while shooting in the mid-40s as the second option for a Blazers team that appears short of weapons this season.
Greg Monroe, Detroit Pistons
Monroe actually had a breakout performance last season, but since he's 22 and still improving, and since nobody outside the state of Michigan is aware of his existence, I thought he still warranted mentioning here.
Monroe's averages of 15.4 points and 9.6 boards last season were impressive enough, especially given his 52.1 percent shooting and underrated passing skill. But the thing that could make him an All-Star in the East* this season is that he played only 31.5 minutes per game last season. That happened even though his foul rate was fairly low for a big man, and with the Pistons' lack of other offensive weapons it seems fairly likely his playing time could bump into the 35-minute range.
If that happens, and Monroe continues on his upward trajectory, one can see how he might be able to maintain averages at or near the heralded 20-10 mark; again, accompanied by a shooting mark in the 50s and some of the best assist numbers among big men. While Monroe isn't as far along defensively as he is offensively, he is still one of the best young big men in the game. In fact, I would argue he is a more valuable player at this point than the more heralded DeMarcus Cousins. If the Pistons can stick around the playoff race until February -- not likely, but stranger things have happened -- a 20-10 mark should be enough to get him to Houston.
:hat