300!

[Nbadan]

Or rather 318...

Let's face facts, only Virginia, North Carolina and Florida are still in play. And, Virginia is quickly catching up to the other battleground states that have settled into the Obama column.

Obama will go into election day with significant enough leads in NV, CO, IA, MI, WI, NH, PA and OH. Although those states are portrayed as swing states, only CO and NH were ever really at risk. Romney's only hope was in Ohio and that ship has sailed.

The electoral vote count reasonably sits at O-290, R-191 with 57 in play in VA, NC and FL.

With Virginia looking better and better for Obama, the count would move to 303-191, with 44 EVs in play in NC and FL. As Obama's momentum increases, NC could easily follow VA as it did in 2008, which would give Obama 318-220.



I think 318-220 is the number, but I haven't given up on Florida quite yet....

[Jacob1983]

It's going to be closer than that. Obama will not be celebrating at 10pm this time. It will probably midnight or later until the winner is given the trophy.

[Nbadan]

Maybe, but I think by 10 pm next Tuesday the race will have been decided...

What this race is amounting too..

http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v410/JohnnyRingo2U/Sherrod/Img2012-10-30161748Medium.jpg

[Nbadan]

The final nail in the Romney campaign coffin could come as early as tomorrow....let me explain..

Gallup tonight announced 7.0% unemployment....

Why does this matter? Because the Department of Labor Statistics numbers are usually very close to Gallups numbers anywhere from .1-.3% behind them. Here are some recent months comparison:

Oct 12 Gallup: 7% DoLS: ?
Sep 12 Gallup: 7.9% DoLS: 7.8%
Aug 12 Gallup: 8.1% DoLS: 8.1%
July 12 Gallup: 8% DoLS: 8.3%
June 12 Gallup: 7.8% DoLS: 8.2%
May 12 Gallup: 8% DoLS: 8.2%

So in essence, anything over 7.5% tomorrow would be a major anomaly

If it drops to 7.5% or less, no amount of 'cooking the books' propaganda is gonna bring Romney back from that...

[Mikesatx]

Tomorrow's number will be 7.9%. I got 10 bucks on Romney for any takers.

[Nbadan]

The Bureau of Labor Statistics will release its numbers on Friday at 8:30 a.m. Same Bat-time, same Bat-channel.

So how many jobs must be created every month to have an effect on the unemployment rate? There's an app for that.

http://www.frbatlanta.org/chcs/calculator/index.cfm

[Nbadan]

ADP National Employment Report: Private Sector Employment Increased by 158,000 Jobs in October


Roseland, N.J. - November 1, 2012 - Private sector employment increased by 158,000 jobs from September to October, according to the October ADP National Employment Report, which is produced by Automatic Data Processing, Inc. (ADP®), a leading provider of human capital management solutions, in collaboration with Moody's Analytics. The report, which, is derived from ADP's actual payroll data, measures the change in total nonfarm private employment each month on a seasonally-adjusted basis.

Goods-producing employment rose by 14,000 jobs in October after declining in the two prior months. Gains in construction of 23,000 more than offset the 8,000 decline in manufactuering employment.

Service-providing jobs increased by 144,000. Among the service industries reported by the ADP National Employment Report, professional/business services had the largest gain with 35,000 jobs added over the month. Trade/transportation/utilities added 24,000 jobs and financial activities added 9,000 jobs in October.

Read more: http://www.adpemploymentreport.com/NER-November2012.aspx

[Jacob1983]

12:01am central time or later on Wednesday

[angrydude]

They are going to beat expectations, and then a week later by revised down to reality where they miss expectations.

dog and pony show

[101A]

FWIW, I live in Pa; up to the past 5 days have heard NO presidential political ads.

This week, however, Romney is popping up on the airwaves with regularity. The ads are positive, pro-Romney, not anti Obama, also FWIW.

The (22 year removed) political science student in me, based on this evidence, would determine that Pa is now in play, and that Romney is not desperate (the more negative the ads, the more you are getting your ass kicked).

Pure anecdotal evidence, not based on polls - but just saying, I think your analysis might be flawed.

[boutons_deux]

"Meanwhile, Mr. Obama continues to hold the lead in the vast majority of polls in Iowa, Nevada, Ohio and Wisconsin, the states that represent his path of least resistance toward winning the Electoral College. This was particularly apparent on Wednesday, a day when there were a remarkable number of polls, 27, released in the battleground states."

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/11/01/oct-31-obamas-electoral-college-firewall-holding-in-polls/

Silver also gives a 96% chance of Dems winning PA.

[ploto]

FWIW, I live in Pa; up to the past 5 days have heard NO presidential political ads.

This week, however, Romney is popping up on the airwaves with regularity. The ads are positive, pro-Romney, not anti Obama, also FWIW.

The (22 year removed) political science student in me, based on this evidence, would determine that Pa is now in play, and that Romney is not desperate (the more negative the ads, the more you are getting your ass kicked).

Pure anecdotal evidence, not based on polls - but just saying, I think your analysis might be flawed.


“I think it means the Romney-Ryan campaign is desperate to figure out how to win this race outside of the states that they’ve been contesting it in for 15 months,” Gibbs said on CBS’ “This Morning.” “I think that’s all Pennsylvania is for the Romney-Ryan campaign. Look, John McCain spent the last weekend of 2008 in Pennsylvania in a desperate attempt to do this as well.”

Read more: http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1112/83201.html#ixzz2B4s5S2M4

[101A]

“I think it means the Romney-Ryan campaign is desperate to figure out how to win this race outside of the states that they’ve been contesting it in for 15 months,” Gibbs said on CBS’ “This Morning.” “I think that’s all Pennsylvania is for the Romney-Ryan campaign. Look, John McCain spent the last weekend of 2008 in Pennsylvania in a desperate attempt to do this as well.”

Read more: http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1112/83201.html#ixzz2B4s5S2M4

I lived here then as well. I don't remember it that way. But whatever - kind of a pointless exercise; we'll all know on Tuesday one way or another.

[ploto]

"McCain will pick up Pennsylvania." -- Mitt Romney 11/03/2008 :lol

GlTD5lMSyi8

[kamikazi_player]

"McCain will pick up Pennsylvania." -- Mitt Romney 11/03/2008 :lol

GlTD5lMSyi8
:lmao

[Sec24Row7]

Marked... :D

[JIM LAMPLEY]

I think the score card in the end is going to shock the world.

[SA210]

:clap:clap

Yay for more war!

[dbestpro]

So, regardless of who wins the house is not going to change its position. How are we going to get past the grid lock or is four more years of the same congressional politics just fine with everyone?

[Th'Pusher]

So, regardless of who wins the house is not going to change its position. How are we going to get past the grid lock or is four more years of the same congressional politics just fine with everyone?

Whoever wins will have leverage. They'll wait till the last minute but they'll get a deal done so the sequester/tax increases don't go into place. If Romney wins we'll see all the tax cuts that were supposed to expire in 2010 extented permanently. If Obama wins well see the tax cuts extend for people making less than 250k. Regardless of who wins the automatic spending cuts put into law as a result of the super committee will basically be undone.

Over the next term, well like see more comprehensive tax and entitlement reform under either.

[Latarian Milton]

romney is bound to lose the election he's now working his ass off only to save some face for himself by avoiding a landslide defeat imho

[Nbadan]

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/26315908/vp/49668788#49668788

[Nbadan]

late night update: Pretty important here....first of all, Obama seems to now own a small projected lead in Florida where he has won 4 out of 5 of the latest polls...

Also, Nate Silver just updated Obama's chances of winning Tuesday to 83.7%....

[Nbadan]

The last 5....


Polls 538 WT. Date Dem Rep Margin
Ipsos (online) 11/2 47.0 45.0 Obama +2.0
NBC/Marist 11/1 51.0 45.0 Obama +6.0
CNN/Opinion Research * 11/1 47.0 44.0 Obama +3.0
We Ask America 11/1 50.2 45.8 Obama +4.4
Ipsos (online) 11/1 47.0 45.0 Obama +2.

Hey, ho, way to go Ohio...


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HA56J8zlAdo&feature=player_embedded#!

[Wild Cobra]

The last 5....



Hey, ho, way to go Ohio...


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HA56J8zlAdo&feature=player_embedded#!
How many people know that is Rush's bumper music?

She's 56 in this photo:

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/2/26/Chrissie_Hynde_1.JPG/329px-Chrissie_Hynde_1.JPG

[boutons_deux]

late night update: Pretty important here....first of all, Obama seems to now own a small projected lead in Florida where he has won 4 out of 5 of the latest polls...


Rachel Maddow showed the Rick Scott has successfully early voting hours so that EARLY voting lines are 3 - 5 hours waiting, as predicted and desired by Repug asshole consultants.

Crist's extension of voting hours in 2008 so pissed ofg the Repug leaders that they dumped him.

[Jacob1983]

It's gonna be close but Barry will be more popular than Romney and the electors will vote for a 4th term of Bush that Barry will serve.

[Nbadan]

Wow...


http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=nY0M7IdNl7U

[mercos]

The sad part of that video is that it sounds like every political discussion I have had with the conservatives in my very conservative state. At least I now know the South isn't the only place with people like that.

[Jacob1983]

People are sheep and buy into the propaganda. They think their guy is a god and a miracle worker and can magically make things better instantly.

[Nbadan]

What is really scary is that low information voters, like some of those in the video, will be deciding who is the President for the next four years and the direction of the US...

[Jacob1983]

Yep, that is unfortunately true. Romney supporters truely believe that abortion will be banned and gay people will be "cured" if he is elected. Obama supporters think they're going to get free abortions, free birth control pills, and free gay marriage if Obama gets a 2nd term.

[Nbadan]

Well, I don't know about all that, but cutting back on spending is the last thing we should be doing right now...economic wise....the 16 trillion dollars is a very manageable part of the GDP....

[Jacob1983]

As much as I want things to get better, I don't see it happening any time soon. Bush, his minions, and the rest of the heartless evil pricks in Washington D.C. fucked up America big time and it's gonna take a while to repair the damage. 9/11, nation building in Iraq, Afghanistan, and other parts in the Middle East, and basically destroying the house market put a huge amount of debt on America. A lot of this debt started with 9/11. I know people don't want to hear it but it's true. 9/11 was the catalyst for this shit.

[ChumpDumper]

Wow...


http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=nY0M7IdNl7UEh, there are plenty of stupid Obama supporters out there too -- and a shitload of stupid alternative candidate supporters.

I always take these with a grain of salt -- no partisan has ever included an intelligent, thoughtful response from a supporter of the opposition and I know they're out there.

The Muslim atheist bit was pretty funny tho.

[ChumpDumper]

.

[ChumpDumper]

free gay marriage

[SA210]

What is really scary is that low information voters, like some of those in the video, will be deciding who is the President for the next four years and the direction of the US...

Very sad how both Romney and Obama supporters are low on information.

[ploto]

The Muslim atheist bit was pretty funny tho.

I have come to the conclusion that there are loads of people who simply have no clue what the word Muslim means. They seem to think it is an ethnicity - like Puerto Rican. His dad was Muslim, so he is too. How else can you be Muslim and an atheist; or be Muslim and at the same time criticized for your years of attending a black liberation theology Christian church?

[Jacob1983]

Didn't Obama meet his dad when he was like 10 years old? And didn't Obama meet his dad like once or twice? From what I've read, his dad seemed like a piece of shit. Obama was raised by his mom and her parents.

[Nbadan]

Obama is a 4-5 favorite to win the electoral college Tuesday

Nov. 2: For Romney to Win, State Polls Must Be Statistically Biased
By NATE SILVER


President Obama is now better than a 4-in-5 favorite to win the Electoral College, according to the FiveThirtyEight forecast. His chances of winning it increased to 83.7 percent on Friday, his highest figure since the Denver debate and improved from 80.8 percent on Thursday.

Friday’s polling should make it easy to discern why Mr. Obama has the Electoral College advantage. There were 22 polls of swing states published Friday. Of these, Mr. Obama led in 19 polls, and two showed a tie. Mitt Romney led in just one of the surveys, a Mason-Dixon poll of Florida.

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/11/03/nov-2-for-romney-to-win-state-polls-must-be-statistically-biased/

lthough the fact that Mr. Obama held the lead in so many polls is partly coincidental — there weren’t any polls of North Carolina on Friday, for instance, which is Mr. Romney’s strongest battleground state — they nevertheless represent powerful evidence against the idea that the race is a “tossup.” A tossup race isn’t likely to produce 19 leads for one candidate and one for the other — any more than a fair coin is likely to come up heads 19 times and tails just once in 20 tosses. (The probability of a fair coin doing so is about 1 chance in 50,000.)

Instead, Mr. Romney will have to hope that the coin isn’t fair, and instead has been weighted to Mr. Obama’s advantage. In other words, he’ll have to hope that the polls have been biased in Mr. Obama’s favor.

[Nbadan]

Then there is the Alabama-LSU Rule


There are many prognosticators of who will win the 2012 Presidential Election such as the Halloween Masks, the Redskins Rule, the Lakers Law, and the World Series Winner. However, one of the lesser known sports prognosticators happens to be the Alabama-LSU Rule. The rule states that if Alabama wins the matchup between the two rivals, a Democrat will win the race for the White House. If LSU wins, a Republican will win.

So, what is the track record of this rule? Let's take a look.

1984: LSU 16, Alabama 14. Ronald Reagan (R) demolishes Walter Mondale (D).

1988: LSU 19, Alabama 18. George H.W. Bush (R) defeats Michael Dukakis (D).

1992: Alabama 31, LSU 11. Bill Clinton (D) defeats George H.W. Bush (R).

1996: Alabama 26, LSU 0. Clinton (D) defeats Bob Dole (R).

2000: LSU 30, Alabama 28. George W. Bush (R) defeats Al Gore (D).

2004: LSU 26, Alabama 10. George W. Bush (R) defeats John Kerry (D).

2008: Alabama 27, LSU 21. Barack Obama (D) defeats John McCain (R).

Tonight, LSU and Alabama faced off once again. The result Alabama 21, LSU 17.

This means that President Obama will win re-election on Tuesday.

[Nbadan]

http://election.princeton.edu/wp-content/uploads/autographics/EV_map.png

Every Princeton Election Consortium swing state is blue except North Carolina.

http://election.princeton.edu/electoral-college-map/

[Nbadan]

Tired of Nate Silver?

Here are 5 excellent election models to follow.
Sam Wang @ the Princeton Election Consortium actually projected 2008 within 1 EV.
And if I remember correctly Intrade nailed it right on the money in 2008.

http://election.princeton.edu/

http://votamatic.org/

http://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AjAk1JUWDMyRdDQzLWJTdlppakNRNDlMakhhMGdGa 0E#gid=3

http://frontloading.blogspot.com/p/2012-electoral-college-map.html


http://electoralmap.net/2012/intrade.php

[baseline bum]

So, regardless of who wins the house is not going to change its position. How are we going to get past the grid lock or is four more years of the same congressional politics just fine with everyone?

A lot better than the retarded House getting their garbage bills signed into law.

[boutons_deux]

"the house is not going to change its position. How are we going to get past the grid lock"

we won't. The Repugs will continue to produce 10s of bills and amendments on abortion to continue to sucker "Christian" single-issue voters into voting against their own interests, Ryan will get his sociopathic budget passed over and over and over in the House, beyond the two times already passed, only to have it blocked by the Dems in the Senate.

The Repug Senators will filibuster everything Dem, if they can't kill it in committee.

The House Repugs, running all the House committees, will continue to gut and defund regulations and regulatory agencies, eg, the current defunding of FDA for food inspection, fucking up and killing people and the environment.

For the Repugs, "govt IS THE problem" has a solution in willfully misgoverning and destroying govt.

[SpursNextRomanEmpire]

Eh, there are plenty of stupid Obama supporters out there too -- and a shitload of stupid alternative candidate supporters.

You're right. But wow, that was bad.

[Nbadan]

Or rather 318...

Or rather 332!

:lol