Nate Silver Nov. 4th Update: Obama has 85.1% chance of winning

[DMX7]

He is either going to be a hero or whipping boy on Nov. 7th.

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/

[boutons_deux]

nude model, pickup truck Brown is down 7 pts in MA to Warren

[DarrinS]

Hope I have enough popcorn. Will turn on MSNBC if Romney wins. Matthews' reaction will be entertaining.

[ChumpDumper]

What will you watch if Obama wins?

[boutons_deux]

Ryan, Quiet for Now, Is Said to Be Planning for an Active Role

Representative Paul D. Ryan may have largely disappeared from the national spotlight down the campaign homestretch, ceding attention to Mitt Romney. But if the Republican ticket prevails, Mr. Ryan plans to come back roaring, establishing an activist vice presidency that he said would look like Dick Cheney's under President George W. Bush.


Mr. Ryan would dedicate most evenings to dinners with senators and House members of both parties, aides said, as he steps into the role Mr. Romney promised: architect of a Romney administration's drive to enact a budget that shrinks the government and overhauls programs like Medicare.

On a grinding schedule in the election's final hours, rushing to as many as five states in a day, Mr. Ryan avoids specifics in his speeches about his duties if elected. Behind the scenes, he speaks at least weekly to the office of Mike Leavitt, the former Utah governor who leads the Romney campaign's transition team.

The prospect of a deeply engaged vice president was described in interviews with campaign aides, close House colleagues and the few times Mr. Ryan has discussed his potential future job. Asked by a reporter last month if he expected the kind of broad responsibility for the economy that Mr. Cheney held for national security - as an aide suggested - Mr. Ryan said, "I do."

"A large reason he was chosen was to help Romney govern," an adviser to the campaign said. "Paul's going to focus on being a partner."

http://mobile.nytimes.com/2012/11/04/us/politics/paul-ryan-is-said-to-be-planning-an-active-role.xml?f=19

And Ryan will fuckup the economy as much a dickhead fucked up national security! :lol

[George Gervin's Afro]

If Romney wins Harry Reid should publicly proclaim his lone goal is to make Romney a 1 term president...

[Nbadan]

If Romney wins Harry Reid should publicly proclaim his lone goal is to make Romney a 1 term president...

And then filibuster everything in sight that has to do with job creation or stimulus spending

[Th'Pusher]

And then filibuster everything in sight that has to do with job creation or stimulus spending
Democrats won't do that because they're not psychopaths. The reality is Romney would likely get more done as president because congressional democrats are more reasonable than the fringe driving the Republican Party.

[DarrinS]

For the record, I declared Obama a lock to win when it was announced that Mitt was the nominee. Now, I'm not so sure. The fact that its this close, is a credit to Obama. In 2008, he had 80,000 people show up for a campaign stop in Cleveland. This time around? 4000 showed up.

http://www.spurstalk.com/forums/showthread.php?t=186212&p=5459263&viewfull=1#post5459263

[boutons_deux]

"its this close"

You Lie

[DarrinS]

"its this close"

You Lie





http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/2012_elections_electoral_college_map.html

[boutons_deux]

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/11/03/nov-2-for-romney-to-win-state-polls-must-be-statistically-biased/


The national popular totals are meaningless, are pimped to build website and TV traffic (sell ads), since only the electoral votes count.

[xrayzebra]

Romney in a landslide and boutons runs crying, hiding under the bed.

[ElNono]

Pennsylvania and Michigan are not tossups... you can add another 36 electoral votes there for Barry...

[Th'Pusher]

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/2012_elections_electoral_college_map.html

8 of the 11 "toss up" states are leaning O. It really isn't that close.

[DarrinS]

8 of the 11 "toss up" states are leaning O. It really isn't that close.

We'll see

[DarrinS]

If its really such a slam dunk, who are these threads trying to convince?

[O.J. Simpson]

We'll see

Will you cry if Obama wins?

[MannyIsGod]

If its really such a slam dunk, who are these threads trying to convince?

You're projecting. YOU are the one trying to convince people. This thread is laughing at morons like you.

[boutons_deux]

http://www.predictwise.com/politics/2012presidentindividual

[Latarian Milton]

obama haters were simply deluding themselves when they thought the mormon would have any chance of beating the kenyan nigga tbh

[DarrinS]

You're projecting. YOU are the one trying to convince people. This thread is laughing at morons like you.

I predicted an Obama win. See previous posts.

I will laugh my ass off if Mitt wins.

[Viva Las Espuelas]

For the record, I declared Obama a lock to win when it was announced that Mitt was the nominee. Now, I'm not so sure. The fact that its this close, is a credit to Obama. In 2008, he had 80,000 people show up for a campaign stop in Cleveland. This time around? 4000 showed up.

http://www.spurstalk.com/forums/showthread.php?t=186212&p=5459263&viewfull=1#post5459263

few than 200 with Stevie Wonder that "wasn't advertised properly"

[DUNCANownsKOBE]

I'm not saying Silver is for sure gonna be right, but the people who think Silver doesn't have tons of research/evidence/reasoning behind his Obama 85% odds are kidding themselves. At this point if Romney wins Silver's credibility would be destroyed. He wouldn't give Obama such strong odds unless he has good reason to think Obama's chances are that good.

[jack sommerset]

Its pretty much tied up in polls and I believe the polls. I just don't see actual turn out for Obama to carry him to victory. I won't be "shocked" but surprise if that happens plus very, very disapointed. God bless

[DMX7]

Its pretty much tied up in polls and I believe the polls. I just don't see actual turn out for Obama to carry him to victory. I won't be "shocked" but surprise if that happens plus very, very disapointed. God bless

No, it's not "pretty much tied in the polls" if you know how the electoral college works.

[jack sommerset]

No, it's not "pretty much tied in the polls" if you know how the electoral college works.

Brother, less than 72 hours away. No use in debating polls at this point. God bless

[DJ Mbenga]

im really suprised cnn decided to do their last poll as a national one. a waste of money. an ohio one would have been more helpful even if was a couple of days after just doing one.

[MannyIsGod]

I predicted an Obama win. See previous posts.

I will laugh my ass off if Mitt wins.

Dude you are the king of trying to talk out of both sides of your mouth. You "predict" an Obama win then talk about nothing but how close it is and how Romney might win blah blah blah blah blah.

I don't think you understand shit about communication and you can't just say one thing and not mean it and somehow have it override all the other bullshit you spew. I can only imagine how brutal life must be for your wife.

[MannyIsGod]

im really suprised cnn decided to do their last poll as a national one. a waste of money. an ohio one would have been more helpful even if was a couple of days after just doing one.

CNN's trying to make it seem closer than it is. All the networks are. Its exactly what they did in 2008. They need ratings for the night so they try to make it seem as though its a toss up. I wish I could find the place I saw a video of all the pundits in 2008 saying that it was close but then reversing and saying that Obama was always a lock to win a few hours later when they had called it on election night. Its so ridiculous but they don't get called on it.

[Clipper Nation]

Brother, less than 72 hours away. No use in debating polls at this point. God bless
:lmao at neocons just now deciding that there's "no use in debating polls anymore" while Barry's stepping up in the clutch...

Willard = f:lolcked

[jack sommerset]

:lmao at neocons just now deciding that there's "no use in debating polls anymore" while Barry's stepping up in the clutch...

Willard = f:lolcked

Silly boy. We have discussed political polls in here for many, many years. I am one of the few on spurstalk that actually believe in them. God bless

[DarrinS]

CNN's trying to make it seem closer than it is. All the networks are. Its exactly what they did in 2008. They need ratings for the night so they try to make it seem as though its a toss up. I wish I could find the place I saw a video of all the pundits in 2008 saying that it was close but then reversing and saying that Obama was always a lock to win a few hours later when they had called it on election night. Its so ridiculous but they don't get called on it.


Was that the poll with a D+11 sample?

Nothing absurd about that.

[DarrinS]

If they have to over sample Dems to "make it seem closer than it really is", I don't know what that says about reality.

[101A]

Recently, I've kind of assumed Romney had a shot because the economy sucks so bad; incumbents lose when the economy sucks.

However, I haven't been paying close enough attention. This really comes down, in a large part, to Ohio - Romney doesn't win that, he doesn't win.

Unemployment is Ohio is 7% - beating the ntl average by a significant margin.

It DOES come down to economy, and in the state that means the most, Obama's doing O.K.

An unpopular, unsuccessful president is about to get re-elected.

For those of you keeping score, that defines two of the last three elections.

If you don't think the system is broken, you're not paying attention.

[DUNCANownsKOBE]

Recently, I've kind of assumed Romney had a shot because the economy sucks so bad; incumbents lose when the economy sucks.

However, I haven't been paying close enough attention. This really comes down, in a large part, to Ohio - Romney doesn't win that, he doesn't win.

Unemployment is Ohio is 7% - beating the ntl average by a significant margin.

It DOES come down to economy, and in the state that means the most, Obama's doing O.K.

An unpopular, unsuccessful president is about to get re-elected.

For those of you keeping score, that defines two of the last three elections.

If you don't think the system is broken, you're not paying attention.

I disagree with most of your posts but this is a total truth bomb.

[RandomGuy]

He is either going to be a hero or whipping boy on Nov. 7th.

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/

Leave it to science to take all the mystery out of something.

[Drachen]

CNN's trying to make it seem closer than it is. All the networks are. Its exactly what they did in 2008. They need ratings for the night so they try to make it seem as though its a toss up. I wish I could find the place I saw a video of all the pundits in 2008 saying that it was close but then reversing and saying that Obama was always a lock to win a few hours later when they had called it on election night. Its so ridiculous but they don't get called on it.

Hey, the election is the only stimulus that the republicans will go along with right now, let CNN have it.

[Clipper Nation]

An unpopular, unsuccessful president is about to get re-elected.

For those of you keeping score, that defines two of the last three elections.

If you don't think the system is broken, you're not paying attention.

What's broken is not the system, but the people running it, and the total lack of choice we have when it comes to the two major parties' candidates...

[coyotes_geek]

An unpopular, unsuccessful president is about to get re-elected.

For those of you keeping score, that defines two of the last three elections.

If you don't think the system is broken, you're not paying attention.

The system isn't broken, we just suck as voters. We've lowered our standards to the point where all it takes to be "qualified" is to not be the other guy. This election isn't even "Obama" vs. "Romney", it's "not Obama" vs. "not Romney".

[101A]

I disagree with most of your posts but this is a total truth bomb.

DOK with the backhand :lol

[101A]

What's broken is not the system, but the people running it, and the total lack of choice we have when it comes to the two major parties' candidates...


The system isn't broken, we just suck as voters. We've lowered our standards to the point where all it takes to be "qualified" is to not be the other guy. This election isn't even "Obama" vs. "Romney", it's "not Obama" vs. "not Romney".

IMO, all of those factors part of "the system".

[MannyIsGod]

The system isn't broken, we just suck as voters. We've lowered our standards to the point where all it takes to be "qualified" is to not be the other guy. This election isn't even "Obama" vs. "Romney", it's "not Obama" vs. "not Romney".

Not sure this is actually true. Does the average person really think that either Obama or Romney is a good choice? I think they do. I think the lesser of two evils choice is one made among people who are more plugged into politics but I don't necessarily think that the average voter goes into the booth with the same mindset.

[101A]

Not sure this is actually true. Does the average person really think that either Obama or Romney is a good choice? I think they do. I think the lesser of two evils choice is one made among people who are more plugged into politics but I don't necessarily think that the average voter goes into the booth with the same mindset.

From a person who lives in a "Swing" state - (Pa); the campaigns JUST started advertising in the past week; my phone rings, literally, 10 times a day with a recorded message (was a registered Republican 'til 08, so I'm on their list) - my son, now 18, is a registered Independent - so that gets the house on another list; the phone calls DO NOT tell us WHY to vote for one of the candidates, they tell us why to not vote for the other candidate. The bazillion TV and radio ads; same thing. I think you're wrong on this one, Manny.

[DUNCANownsKOBE]

DOK with the backhand :lol

No backhand intended tbh

[MannyIsGod]

From a person who lives in a "Swing" state - (Pa); the campaigns JUST started advertising in the past week; my phone rings, literally, 10 times a day with a recorded message (was a registered Republican 'til 08, so I'm on their list) - my son, now 18, is a registered Independent - so that gets the house on another list; the phone calls DO NOT tell us WHY to vote for one of the candidates, they tell us why to not vote for the other candidate. The bazillion TV and radio ads; same thing. I think you're wrong on this one, Manny.

Sure but thats because making you afraid of the other candidate is a more effective campaign tactic than telling you how good their candidate is. That and what I said are not mutually exclusive.

EDIT: Not to mention that due to campaign finance laws a lot of groups spending money on the campaigns can't advocate a candidate unless they register as a PAC. They CAN spend money on "issues" campaigning without doing so and then their donors get to remain hidden. I can almost guarantee you that most of the calls you're getting are of this variety.

[boutons_deux]

5 Signs Romney is Getting Desperate


November 5, 2012 |
The presidential race is down to the wire, with only one day left of campaigning. President Barack Obama and Mitt Romney are criss-crossing through swing states, holding rallies to turn out their base and convince undecided voters, if there are any left, to vote for them.

The polls, though, continue show a solid lead for President Obama, particularly in the Electoral College race. And that means it’s time for the Romney-Ryan campaign to get desperate--which is exactly what they’ve been doing.

Here are 5 recent examples of how the Romney campaign’s desperation is shining through.

1. Talking Up ‘Judeo-Christian Values’

As AlterNet's Adele Stan reports (http://www.alternet.org/election-2012/paul-ryan-right-wing-activists-obama-policies-compromise-judeo-christian-values) [3], on a campaign phone call to evangelicals Sunday night, vice-presidential candidate Paul Ryan took it back to basics: ginning up fear over alleged threats to “Christian values” in a bid to turn out his base. Politico reports that Ryan told (http://www.politico.com/blogs/burns-haberman/2012/11/ryan-obama-path-for-nation-compromises-judeochristian-148410.html) [4] the evangelicals that President Obama has gone down a “dangerous path.”

“It's a path that grows government, restricts freedom and liberty and compromises those values, those Judeo-Christian values that made us such a great and exceptional nation in the first place,” Ryan said.

The “tele-town hall” garnered the participation of thousands of callers, Politico reports.

2. Campaigning in Pennsylvania

Mitt Romney has been seriously campaigning in Pennsylvania recently, but others see it as a sign of desperation meant to make the Obama campaign pour resources into a state they have safely locked up.

Yesterday evening saw the latest instance of Romney landing in Pennsylvania to campaign. But the polls show that Obama continues to lead in the state. So even if Romney was trying to make a serious play, rather than a head-fake, at Pennsylvania, it still smacks of desperation. As Nate Silver of the New York Times points out, (http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/11/04/nov-3-romneys-reason-to-play-for-pennsylvania/) [5] “Mr. Romney’s chances of pulling out a victory in Pennsylvania are slim.” But he’s still looking for votes in all the places he can.

3. Lying about Jeep Production

The Romney campaign has been touring the coveted swing-state of Ohio, and has taken to telling bald-faced lies in an effort to win the state. The latest: a claim that Chrysler was going to move production of Jeep vehicles to China.

“I saw a story today that one of the great manufacturers in this state, Jeep — now owned by the Italians — is thinking of moving all production to China,” Romney told an Ohio crowd in late October. Soon after, an ad was out claiming that Obama “sold Chrysler to Italians who are going to build Jeeps in China.”

But the ad and claim was wholly misleading. As a Washington Post fact-check points out, (http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/fact-checker/post/4-pinocchios-for-mitt-romneys-misleading-ad-on-chrysler-and-china/2012/10/29/2a153a04-21d7-11e2-ac85-e669876c6a24_blog.html) [6] “the overall message of the ad is clearly misleading — especially since it appears to have been designed to piggyback off of Romney’s gross misstatement that Chrysler was moving Ohio factory jobs to China.” Chrysler has insisted that the company has “no intention of shifting production of its Jeep models out of North America to China.”

4. Blaming Hurricane Sandy

When you’re down and out in the polls, it reeks of desperation to begin to blame your woes on anything other than your campaign or your opponent’s campaign. And of course, that’s what the Republican Party and some within the Romney campaign have begun to do.

Talking Points Memo reports (http://tpmdc.talkingpointsmemo.com/2012/11/republicans-romney-hurricane-sandy.php?ref=fpb) [7] that the right is “roundly describing the devastating storm as the critical event that halted their candidate’s upswing in the polls, which give Obama a clear advantage (http://core.talkingpointsmemo.com/election/scoreboard) [8] in the electoral college math.”

CBS News reported that Romney “campaign sources concede superstorm Sandy stalled Romney’s momentum.” And Karl Rove, a Romney booster, told the Washington Post that “if you hadn’t had the storm, there would have been more of a chance for the [Mitt] Romney campaign to talk about the deficit, the debt, the economy.”

5. Casting Doubt on Polls

When all else fails, blame the numbers. And that’s exactly what the right and the Romney campaign have been doing recently.

As Joshua Holland recently reports in AlterNet, (http://www.alternet.org/5-delusional-right-wingers-certain-mitt-romneys-headed-landslide-win) [9] “Republicans have decided that all the available evidence must be wrong and that Mitt Romney is headed for a certain victory next Tuesday.” Part of the reason for this is that “people like to vote for winners, and if they believe their candidate is likely to go down in defeat, they may decide to stay home and do some laundry next Tuesday.”

The Romney campaign has joined in on the poll-bashing. For instance, they’ve joined in with the right’s new hobby of casting doubt on New York Times numbers guru, Nate Silver.

BuzzFeed reports (http://www.buzzfeed.com/mckaycoppins/romney-campaign-brushes-off-538-projections) [10] that Romney strategist Stuart Stevens told the website that “In the primary we'd go from having close to zero chance, to winning a state, to 80 percent [likelihood] within some short period of time” in Silver’s polling model.

http://www.alternet.org/news-amp-politics/5-signs-romney-getting-desperate

[coyotes_geek]

Not sure this is actually true. Does the average person really think that either Obama or Romney is a good choice? I think they do. I think the lesser of two evils choice is one made among people who are more plugged into politics but I don't necessarily think that the average voter goes into the booth with the same mindset.

Gotta disagree. Even the campaigns themselves have made this race all about not being the other guy. Neither campaign is touting their own merits, Romney is running on Obama's crappy record and Obama is running on Bush's crappy record.

[MannyIsGod]

So in 2008, you would say that the majority of people who voted for Obama thought he was a good candidate, right? Yet, aside from the catch phrases of Hope and Change the vast majority of campaignign was done showing how McCain would be more Bush. Shit, even the catch phrases were about that. Negative campaigning is more due to its effectiveness as opposed to whether or not an electorate has good views about their candidate.

[xrayzebra]

Dick Morris.
"Previously, in discussing the race with Bill O’Reilly of Fox News, Morris said Romney will win the election by 5 to 10 points in the popular vote and would carry more than 300 electoral votes.

"It will be the biggest surprise in recent American political history," Morris told van Susteren. "It will rekindle the whole question on why the media played this race as a nailbiter where in fact Romney’s going to win by quite a bit."

Updated election forecasting model still points to Romney win, University of Colorado study says
October 4, 2012 •
Social Sciences

An update to an election forecasting model announced by two University of Colorado professors in August continues to project that Mitt Romney will win the 2012 presidential election.

According to their updated analysis, Romney is projected to receive 330 of the total 538 Electoral College votes. President Barack Obama is expected to receive 208 votes -- down five votes from their initial prediction -- and short of the 270 needed to win.

“Sometime after the cock crows on the morning of Nov. 7, Mitt Romney will be declared America’s 45th president,” Rove wrote on Wednesday night. “Let’s call it 51%-48%, with Mr. Romney carrying at least 279 Electoral College votes, probably more.”

He argued that Romney has a “small but persistent polling edge,” leading in 19 of the 31 national surveys released in the last week, he said, and the GOP candidate “was at or above 50 percent in 10 polls, Obama in none.” President Barack Obama was ahead in seven of the polls, Rove said, and five were tied.

[DUNCANownsKOBE]

Dick Morris.
"Previously, in discussing the race with Bill O’Reilly of Fox News, Morris said Romney will win the election by 5 to 10 points in the popular vote and would carry more than 300 electoral votes.

"It will be the biggest surprise in recent American political history," Morris told van Susteren. "It will rekindle the whole question on why the media played this race as a nailbiter where in fact Romney’s going to win by quite a bit."

Updated election forecasting model still points to Romney win, University of Colorado study says
October 4, 2012 •
Social Sciences

An update to an election forecasting model announced by two University of Colorado professors in August continues to project that Mitt Romney will win the 2012 presidential election.

According to their updated analysis, Romney is projected to receive 330 of the total 538 Electoral College votes. President Barack Obama is expected to receive 208 votes -- down five votes from their initial prediction -- and short of the 270 needed to win.

“Sometime after the cock crows on the morning of Nov. 7, Mitt Romney will be declared America’s 45th president,” Rove wrote on Wednesday night. “Let’s call it 51%-48%, with Mr. Romney carrying at least 279 Electoral College votes, probably more.”

He argued that Romney has a “small but persistent polling edge,” leading in 19 of the 31 national surveys released in the last week, he said, and the GOP candidate “was at or above 50 percent in 10 polls, Obama in none.” President Barack Obama was ahead in seven of the polls, Rove said, and five were tied.

:lmao:lmao:lmao:lmao:lmao:lmao


Pick a number as high as you wish. I'd be willing to bet anything Mitt Romney gets less than 300 electoral votes.

[xrayzebra]

:lol:lol:lol:lol

This election is going to be so much fun. I wish now I had taken Cosmic's bet.

But the riots in the streets of some big cities aren't going to be such fun. Obama's followers are very sore losers.

[DUNCANownsKOBE]

:lol:lol:lol:lol

This election is going to be so much fun. I wish now I had taken Cosmic's bet.

But the riots in the streets of some big cities aren't going to be such fun. Obama's followers are very sore losers.

So how many electoral votes is Romney gonna win? I'd be willing to bet as much as you want he gets less than 300 electoral votes.

[xrayzebra]

We shall see tomorrow. But when Barry and Stevie Wonder cant draw but 200 people, the writing is on the wall.

[MannyIsGod]

If you are wanting to bet something Xray I'm right here.

[DUNCANownsKOBE]

We shall see tomorrow. But when Barry and Stevie Wonder cant draw but 200 people, the writing is on the wall.
You seem really confident Romney will get 300+ electoral votes. Why not make some easy money off me if it's for sure?

[boutons_deux]

If you are wanting to bet something Xray I'm right here.

XZ blew all his money on Alzheimers meds co-pay.

[Drachen]

Can I get in on this action?

[MannyIsGod]

I asked first bitches.

[CosmicCowboy]

I actually think Romney will take the popular vote, just not the electoral vote.

[DarrinS]

Model that has correctly predicted every election since 1980, predicts Romney winning 330-208.

I'm not advocating it, just putting it out there.

http://www.colorado.edu/news/releases/2012/10/04/updated-election-forecasting-model-still-points-romney-win-university

[ChumpDumper]

Has it been updated in the past month?

[DarrinS]

Has it been updated in the past month?

Not that I'm aware, but it's not based on polling data.

[xrayzebra]

Has it been updated in the past month?

Last time I checked Oct 4th.

According to their updated analysis, Romney is projected to receive 330 of the total 538 Electoral College votes. President Barack Obama is expected to receive 208 votes -- down five votes from their initial prediction -- and short of the 270 needed to win.

[ChumpDumper]

So are you going to take anyone's bet, x?

[xrayzebra]

Not planning on it. Would never collect from you deadbeats anyhow......

[ChumpDumper]

Not planning on it. Would never collect from you deadbeats anyhow......So it's just all talk with you.

OK.

[Clipper Nation]

XZ blew all his money on Alzheimers meds co-pay.

:lol

[ploto]

I wonder if some people do not understand probability. Nate Silver is saying that there is an 85% chance that Obama gains enough electoral votes to win. That means that there is a 15% chance that Romney does so. On his blog, he even explains conditions that would cause Romney to win, but the chances of them happening are small.

[ElNono]

baiting senile people into bets should be illegal, tbh

[DarrinS]

I wonder if some people do not understand probability. Nate Silver is saying that there is an 85% chance that Obama gains enough electoral votes to win. That means that there is a 15% chance that Romney does so. On his blog, he even explains conditions that would cause Romney to win, but the chances of them happening are small.


It's not that -- it's what assumptions were made to come up with the 5.6:1 odds?

If they are based on a 2008 turnout model, I think his odds are waaay too high.

[ElNono]

Model that has correctly predicted every election since 1980, predicts Romney winning 330-208.

I would argue the model is making it's first actual prediction.

What has been done is validate it against data available since 1980...

[DarrinS]

There's not really any good way to judge Silver's model. The only way to judge it would be to run a large number of elections (trials) and compare the results. If you could run 100 elections, Obama should win close to 85 times and Romney close to 15 times (if Silver's model is any good). I'm sure his odds are based on running some number of "simulated" elections.

[DarrinS]

I would argue the model is making it's first actual prediction.

What has been done is validate it against data available since 1980...

Fair enough.

[ElNono]

Fair enough.

Don't get me wrong, I think it's a honest and valid attempt, and no different than any other model. They actually state in this paper that this particular election happens to be much more disputed:

The second caveat, which ties back to the first, is that a substantial number of cases depicted in figure 1 where the 90% confidence band around the state's prediction includes the 50% mark. This indicates that the two-party vote could plausibly flip to the other side of the 50-50 line on which some of these states are currently predicted to land.

[Nbadan]

As confident as I am that given the current polling data, Obama's road to re-election is much easier than Romney's chances of ever living on Penn Ave, I learned in 2000 never to go absolute again in any election again....it's all about turn-out now..and I see both sides equally fired up in some aspects, and not so much in others...for instance, will the evangelical vote show up for Romney and will the Progressive vote turn out for Obama...

[FuzzyLumpkins]

Model that has correctly predicted every election since 1980, predicts Romney winning 330-208.

I'm not advocating it, just putting it out there.

http://www.colorado.edu/news/releases/2012/10/04/updated-election-forecasting-model-still-points-romney-win-university


The state-by-state economic data used in their model have been available since 1980. When these data were applied retroactively to each election year, the model correctly classifies all presidential election winners, including the two years when independent candidates ran strongly: 1980 and 1992. It also correctly estimates the outcome in 2000, when Al Gore won the popular vote but George W. Bush won the election through the Electoral College.

It does not say that. it says that if you take the model and apply it retroactively it works. It's oh so obviously a correlative analysis of the variables they found to be significant. It's hindsight and not predictive.

[DarrinS]

It does not say that. it says that if you take the model and apply it retroactively it works. It's oh so obviously a correlative analysis of the variables they found to be significant. It's hindsight and not predictive.

Duh, fucker. Already pointed out by ElNono.

[boutons_deux]

Last Pew poll before election shows President Obamas rebound from low point after first debate

The latest poll by The Pew Research Center shows Barack Obama rebounding and edging ahead of Mitt Romney in the final days of the campaign, after the president’s favorability dropped significantly following his lackluster performance in the first debate last month.

Obama now holds a 48 percent to 45 percent lead over Romney, according to Pew’s national survey of likely voters last week. When undecided voters are taken into account in Pew’s final estimate of the national popular vote on election day, Obama maintains the lead at 50 percent to Romney’s 47 percent.

The uptick is significant given that just a week ago, before the destruction wrought by Hurricane Sandy along the East Coast, the candidates were deadlocked at 47 percent each. Pew researchers attribute Obama’s growth in popularity in part to how he handled the storm’s aftermath, which earned a 69 percent approval rating among likely voters, including the majority of swing voters.

http://mobile.boston.com/art/35/politicalintelligence/2012/11/05/last-pew-poll-shows-president-obama-rebound-from-low-point-after-first-debate/chl9GJFu8TmrJzUvXuB81N/story

[FuzzyLumpkins]

Duh, fucker. Already pointed out by ElNono.

And further illustrated by me. I put in the quote that makes it obvious to anyone else who reads it. Did you not say that you were an engineer? this is basic stuff and should have been obvious to anyone with training. Well that or anyone with basic reading comprehension, the words 'applied retroactively' meaning what they mean.

So did you get this from a mailer, just not bother to read it or both?

[DarrinS]

Pew poll D+6 oversample.

[DarrinS]

And further illustrated by me. I put in the quote that makes it obvious to anyone else who reads it. Did you not say that you were an engineer? this is basic stuff and should have been obvious to anyone with training. Well that or anyone with basic reading comprehension, the words 'applied retroactively' meaning what they mean.

So did you get this from a mailer, just not bother to read it or both?


Point was already conceded.

[FuzzyLumpkins]

Point was already conceded.

Sure because it's blatantly obvious but I want to know how on Earth you could miss that?

[DarrinS]

Sure because it's blatantly obvious but I want to know how on Earth you could miss that?

I'm human. Why are you such an asshole?

[FuzzyLumpkins]

I'm human. Why are you such an asshole?

i am only this way towards people that exhibit certain behavior. The reason why I treat you as such has been widely talked about. if you like we can rehash the specifics.

[FuzzyLumpkins]

Further: the title of the article was


Updated election forecasting model still points to Romney win, University of Colorado study says

where did you get the notion that it had predicted the last 8 elections? it said that neither in the title nor the article itself.

[DarrinS]

If there model WAS applied to every election since 1980, it WOULD HAVE correctly predicted every election -- asshole.

[DarrinS]

But, you can place your bets on a model based on polls that have a 9% response rate.

[ChumpDumper]

Darrin working hard to convince himself Romney will win.

[DarrinS]

Darrin working hard to convince himself Romney will win.

Meh, I'm just not as confident as Nate Silver.

[Latarian Milton]

i also want obama to lose but i genuinely know it's not gonna happen tbh

[GoodOdor]

Darrins went full retard in the 2008 election - he's not making that mistake again.

[MannyIsGod]

Nate's model updated with today's polls show's Obama at greater than 9:1 to win tomorrow.

[MannyIsGod]

If I remember correctly 94% to win in 08. Tomorrow may end up being more of the same.

[DUNCANownsKOBE]

I'm not so sure about him giving Florida to Obama. I think that's pretty solid Romney at this point and if Obama wins it it means he has 330+ electoral votes.

[DarrinS]

If I remember correctly 94% to win in 08. Tomorrow may end up being more of the same.

Fuck it, why not 99%?

[Drachen]

Fuck it, why not 99%?

because that would not conform with the results of the model.

[DarrinS]

Darrins went full retard in the 2008 election - he's not making that mistake again.


Lol, join date 10-30-2010

http://www.spurstalk.com/forums/member.php?u=22768

[ploto]

I'm not so sure about him giving Florida to Obama. I think that's pretty solid Romney at this point and if Obama wins it it means he has 330+ electoral votes.

Polls are all over the place in Florida:

NBC Obama 49-47

PPP Obama 50-49

Reuters 47-47

Mason Dixon has Romney up by 5

[FuzzyLumpkins]

If there model WAS applied to every election since 1980, it WOULD HAVE correctly predicted every election -- asshole.

So if the model had existed --which it did not-- at the time of those elections then if they had made a prediction based on the model it would have been correct.

Are you familiar with the term 'predicted' or better yet the notion of how past tense works. Past tense means sometime in the past the action took place. Predict means to make known in advance. Had the model sometime in the past made known in advance an election?

This is why I am an asshole to you. You claim to be an engineer. Do you have any notion of how models are built or how data is correlated to events? You should. Either you are stupid or you are intentionally misleading.

[ploto]

Well, tomorrow we will see how close Nate Silver is.

Popular Vote
Obama 50.9%
Romney 48.2 %

Obama:
Ohio
Wisconsin
Nevada
Iowa
New Hampshire
Colorado
Virginia

Florida is listed as a toss up but he gives the slight edge to Obama (53% chance of Obama winning Florida)

Romney:
North Carolina

A month ago it was pretty hard to conceive of Obama winning 8/9 of these states - or even 7/9, but that is what he is predicting. From what I have read, the Romney camp really thought they would win Iowa for sure. I am curious about Colorado.

[DJ Mbenga]

Im not so sure about florida, especially with what we have seen, florida does mantain its reputaiton very well. i know the arguments 8 hours that sucks, the other is well if people are willing to wait 4 hours to vote that must entail enthusiasm.
i wouldnt put obamas chances of winning at 92, just at like 70. 08 was so based on enthusiasm and in this year its hard to quantify that. if it was just registered voters obama would win in a beatdown.
the enthusiasm gap really hits home in ohio. obama has the auto bailout advantage and then romney has the "we aint voting for you its against obama" votes. hard to inspire other people to hop along if they dont despite him.

[DUNCANownsKOBE]

Polls are all over the place in Florida:

NBC Obama 49-47

PPP Obama 50-49

Reuters 47-47

Mason Dixon has Romney up by 5
I think Romney pandering to Netanyahu has given him enough of the Miami Beach Jew vote where Obama is gonna need a huge black voter turnout in Florida to have a chance. We'll see I guess.

[ploto]

People must be pretty inspired if they will wait in line 6 hours to vote. Actually, I think they are pissed, but that is a good motivator, as well.

[DarrinS]

So if the model had existed --which it did not-- at the time of those elections then if they had made a prediction based on the model it would have been correct.

Are you familiar with the term 'predicted' or better yet the notion of how past tense works. Past tense means sometime in the past the action took place. Predict means to make known in advance. Had the model sometime in the past made known in advance an election?

This is why I am an asshole to you. You claim to be an engineer. Do you have any notion of how models are built or how data is correlated to events? You should. Either you are stupid or you are intentionally misleading.

Hey dumbass, I already admitted I was wrong. Stalker alert.

[MannyIsGod]

Which part of the model do you have a problem with, Darrin?

[MannyIsGod]

He has Florida as a complete toss up. The margin of error in his model is 2.7 for that state and the margin of victory for Obama is .2 so you really can't say which way its going.

[DarrinS]

Which part of the model do you have a problem with, Darrin?

The input. Sorry, but I don't have much faith in the polling data.

[ChumpDumper]

The input. Sorry, but I don't have much faith in the polling data.What in your experience has led you to that conclusion?

[MannyIsGod]

The input. Sorry, but I don't have much faith in the polling data.

Because its long history of being an accurate indicator of who will win?

:lol

Sounds about right from you. Discount the tool that has been been an accurate indicator for decades because you don't like what it tells you.

Par for the course. Don't ever change, Darrin.

[kamikazi_player]

He has a new one up. It looks like his official polling.

315.2-222.8 in favor of Obama

And he has Obama at a 53 percent chance of taking Florida

[kamikazi_player]

also 92 percent chance that Obama wins

[FuzzyLumpkins]

Hey dumbass, I already admitted I was wrong. Stalker alert.

Again, it's obvious that you were wrong. I am still waiting for an explanation as to why you thought that a paper that never mentioned that it predicted that and clearly stated that it was retroactively correct instead said that it had predicted the former. We know that oyu were wrong. What I am trying to figure out is how you came to the incorrect conclusions.

It's pretty evident that you did not read the paper or you are intentionally lying. Did you get it from a mailer who was trying to mislead us or were you trying to mislead us? Or did the conclusion that you came to magically appear in your head?

[kamikazi_player]

I think Obama wins all of the swing states except North Carolina and Florida.

[FuzzyLumpkins]

And let's be clear Darrin. If you are going to come on here and post intentionally misleading material as you are wont to do then I am going to 'stalk' you. Might as well get used to it and putting me on ignore won't make me stop as I do it for the benefit of the truth or at least an attempt at trying to find it.

[Winehole23]

Again, it's obvious that you were wrong. I am still waiting for an explanation as to why you thought that a paper that never mentioned that it predicted that and clearly stated that it was retroactively correct instead said that it had predicted the former. We know that oyu were wrong. What I am trying to figure out is how you came to the incorrect conclusions.It's doesn't matter how Darrin gets the wrong answer, that's a commonplace. What's unusual is him acknowledging it.

[ploto]

Well, tomorrow we will see how close Nate Silver is.

Popular Vote
Obama 50.9%
Romney 48.2 %


Looking pretty close. Obama looks to hit 50%.

[DUNCANownsKOBE]

Well, tomorrow we will see how close Nate Silver is.

Popular Vote
Obama 50.9%
Romney 48.2 %

Obama:
Ohio
Wisconsin
Nevada
Iowa
New Hampshire
Colorado
Virginia

Florida is listed as a toss up but he gives the slight edge to Obama (53% chance of Obama winning Florida)

Romney:
North Carolina

A month ago it was pretty hard to conceive of Obama winning 8/9 of these states - or even 7/9, but that is what he is predicting. From what I have read, the Romney camp really thought they would win Iowa for sure. I am curious about Colorado.

It's hysterical how accurate all of this was while conservatives were turning Silver into a punching bag when he probably gave Romney too much of a chance :lol

[MannyIsGod]

:lol Turns out that polls that have been statistically incredibly accurate for decades remain statistically accurate even if you close your eyes and concentrate really hard while repeating "romney will win" over and over again.

[boutons_deux]

:lol Turns out that polls that have been statistically incredibly accurate for decades remain statistically accurate even if you close your eyes and concentrate really hard while repeating "romney will win" over and over again.

:)

[Ashy Larry]

lol @ rasmussen poll - plus 5 for Mitt ........


nate silver 2016