Predicitons snapshots

[ElNono]

Figured it would be a good time to take a snapshot of the current predictors/pollsters that are normally spoken about here. With about 24 hours to the start of the election, this is probably as honest as you'll get.
After the results are known, we can compare and contrast.

I basically took all the states that are either "leaning" or "tossup". I figured there's no point in "safe" states. For chuckles, I also added the popular vote predictions and the electoral college count based on the states predictions.


Rasmussen (http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/archive/2012_electoral_college_scoreboard):

Colorado: Obama 47%, Romney 50% (Romney +3)
Connecticut: Obama 52%, Romney 45% (Obama +7)
Florida: Obama 48%, Romney 50% (Romney +2)
Iowa: Obama 48%, Romney 49% (Romney +1)
Michigan: Obama 52%, Romney 47% (Obama +5)
Minnesota: Obama 51%, Romney 46% (Obama +5)
Nevada: Obama 50%, Romney 48% (Romney +2)
New Hampshire: Obama 48%, Romney 50% (Romney +2)
North Carolina: Obama 46%, Romney 52% (Romney +6)
Ohio: Obama 49%, Romney 49% (tie)
Pennsylvania: Obama 51%, Romney 46% (Obama +5)
Virginia: Obama 48%, Romney 50% (Romney +2)
Wisconsin: Obama 49%, Romney 49% (tie)

Electoral College count: Obama 243, Romney 268, Undecided 28

Popular vote: Obama 49%, Romney 49% (tie)


FiveThirtyEight (http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/)

Colorado: Obama 50.3%, Romney 48.3% (Obama +1.6)
Connecticut: Obama 56.3%, Romney 42.8% (Obama +13.5)
Florida: Obama 49.5%, Romney 49.9% (Romney +0.4)
Iowa: Obama 50.9%, Romney 48.0% (Obama +2.9)
Michigan: Obama 52.7%, Romney 46.1% (Obama +6.6)
Minnesota: Obama 53.2%, Romney 45.5% (Obama +7.7)
Nevada: Obama 51.5%, Romney 47.5% (Obama +4)
New Hampshire: Obama 51.1%, Romney 48% (Obama +3.1)
North Carolina: Obama 48.5%, Romney 50.9% (Romney +2.4)
Ohio: Obama 51.0%, Romney 47.9% (Obama +3.1)
Pennsylvania: Obama 52.3%, Romney 46.7% (Obama +5.6)
Virginia: Obama 50.4%, Romney 48.9% (Obama +1.5)
Wisconsin: Obama 52.1%, Romney 47.2% (Obama +4.9)

Electoral College count: Obama 303, Romney 235

Popular vote: Obama 50.6%, Romney 48.5% (Obama +2.1)


Real Clear Politics (http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/2012_elections_electoral_college_map.html)

Colorado: Obama 48.2%, Romney 47.6% (Obama +0.6)
Connecticut: Obama 52.8%, Romney 42.0% (Obama +10.8)
Florida: Obama 47.8%, Romney 49.2% (Romney +1.4)
Iowa: Obama 48.8%, Romney 45.8% (Obama +3.0)
Michigan: Obama 49.2%, Romney 45.4% (Obama +3.8)
Minnesota: Obama 49.2%, Romney 44.8% (Obama +4.4)
Nevada: Obama 50.2%, Romney 47.4% (Obama +2.8)
New Hampshire: Obama 47.7%, Romney 49.2% (Obama +1.5)
North Carolina: Obama 46.0%, Romney 49.8% (Romney +3.8)
Ohio: Obama 49.4%, Romney 46.5% (Obama +2.9)
Pennsylvania: Obama 49.3%, Romney 45.4% (Obama +3.9)
Virginia: Obama 48.0%, Romney 47.8% (Obama +0.2)
Wisconsin: Obama 50.4%, Romney 46.2% (Obama +4.2)

Electoral College count: Obama 303, Romney 235

Popular vote: Obama 47.9%, Romney 47.4% (Obama +0.5)

[velik_m]

http://imgs.xkcd.com/comics/poll_watching.png

[ElNono]

http://imgs.xkcd.com/comics/poll_watching.png

:lol

I gotta hand it to Rasmussen though. Posting a tie on Ohio and Wisconsin is basically a great hedge. Basically, you can't call the election either way with those two like that. They obviously give better odds to Mitt, but they basically cover their asses if it doesn't pan out.

[ElNono]

Results (http://www.cnn.com/election/2012/results/main?hpt=hp_c3_1) are in...

Rasmussen (http://www.rasmussenreports.com/publ...e_scoreboard):

Colorado: prediction Romney +3, result Obama +4 (miss, off by 7%)
Connecticut: prediction Obama +7, result Obama +17 (hit, off by 10%)
Florida: prediction Romney +2, result Obama +1 (miss, off by 3%)
Iowa: prediction Romney +1, result Obama +6 (miss, off by 7%)
Michigan: prediction Obama +5, result Obama +9 (hit, off by 4%)
Minnesota: prediction Obama +5, result Obama +8 (hit, off by 3%)
Nevada: prediction Romney +2, result Obama +6 (miss, off by 8%)
New Hampshire: prediction Romney +2, result Obama +6 (miss, off by 8%)
North Carolina: prediction Romney +6, result Romney +3 (hit, off by 3%)
Ohio: prediction tie, result Obama +2 (miss, off by 2%)
Pennsylvania: prediction Obama +5, result Obama +5 (hit off by 0%)
Virginia: prediction Romney +2, result Obama +3 (miss, off by 5%)
Wisconsin: prediction tie, result Obama +7 (miss, off by 7%)

Popular vote: prediction tie, result Obama +2 (miss, off by 2%)

Total Hits: 5
Total Misses: 9
Avg % off: 4.92%



FiveThirtyEight (http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/)

Colorado: prediction Obama +1.6, result Obama +4 (hit, off by 2.4%)
Connecticut: prediction Obama +13.5, result Obama +17 (hit, off by 3.5%)
Florida: prediction Romney +0.4, result Obama +1 (miss, off by 0.6%)
Iowa: prediction Obama +2.9, result Obama +6 (hit, off by 3.1%)
Michigan: prediction Obama +6.6, result Obama +9 (hit, off by 2.4%)
Minnesota: prediction Obama +7.7, result Obama +8 (hit, off by 0.3%)
Nevada: prediction Obama +4, result Obama +6 (hit, off by 2%)
New Hampshire: prediction Obama +3.1, result Obama +6 (hit, off by 2.9%)
North Carolina: prediction Romney +2.4, result Romney +3 (hit, off by 0.6%)
Ohio: prediction Obama +3.1, result Obama +2 (hit, off by 1.1%)
Pennsylvania: prediction Obama +5.6, result Obama +5 (hit, off by 0.6%)
Virginia: prediction Obama +1.5, result Obama +3 (hit, off by 1.5%)
Wisconsin: prediction Obama +4.9, result Obama +7 (hit, off by 2.1%)

Popular vote: prediction Obama +2.1, result Obama +2 (hit, off by 0.1%)

Total Hits: 13
Total Misses: 1
Avg % off: 1.65%



Real Clear Politics (http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epo...llege_map.html)

Colorado: prediction Obama +0.6, result Obama +4 (hit, off by 3.4%)
Connecticut: prediction Obama +10.8, result Obama +17 (hit, off by 6.2%)
Florida: prediction Romney +1.4, result Obama +1 (miss, off by 2.4%)
Iowa: prediction Obama +3.0, result Obama +6 (hit, off by 3%)
Michigan: prediction Obama +3.8, result Obama +9 (hit, off by 5.2%)
Minnesota: prediction Obama +4.4, result Obama +8 (hit, off by 3.6%)
Nevada: prediction Obama +2.8, result Obama +6 (hit, off by 3.2%)
New Hampshire: prediction Obama +1.5, result Obama +6 (hit, off by 4.5%)
North Carolina: prediction Romney +3.8, result Romney +3 (hit, off by 0.8%)
Ohio: prediction Obama +2.9, result Obama +2 (hit, off by 0.9)
Pennsylvania: prediction Obama +3.9, result Obama +5 (hit, off by 1.1%)
Virginia: prediction Obama +0.2, result Obama +3 (hit, off by 2.8%)
Wisconsin: prediction Obama +4.2, result Obama +7 (hit, off by 2.8%)

Popular vote: prediction Obama +0.5, result Obama +2 (hit, off by 1.5%)

Total Hits: 13
Total Misses: 1
Avg % off: 2.95%

[clambake]

lol

[MannyIsGod]

Its not magic, EN. Its not magic. Fuck.