Looks like the markets are pricing in a recession/depression

[CosmicCowboy]

Stocks keep falling, Oil down below $85...doesn't look good IMHO.

[Bartleby]

Stocks keep falling, Oil down below $85...doesn't look good IMHO.

Good, that means cheaper heating oil for me!





On a more serious note, I wonder how much of that is a function of worries about gridlock and the looming fiscal cliff.

[DUNCANownsKOBE]

I think we'll see a lot through the end of the year and then it'll level off or rebound starting in 2013. A lot of people are gonna be in a hurry to recognize a cap gain before it goes up to 20%. If stocks continue to slump in 2013 then we're probably in trouble.

[scott]

Stocks fell even further when BO was elected to first time. The market then proceeded to double. We can only hope to be as fortunate again.

[Gordon Gekko]

As long as you've got good information you can still make millions.

[CosmicCowboy]

Stocks fell even further when BO was elected to first time. The market then proceeded to double. We can only hope to be as fortunate again.

I was not trying to establish a cause and effect relationship, just making an observation. Lots of influences besides the election.

[boutons_deux]

My guess is that Europe's economic forecast this week, but the fiscal-cliff scaremongering theatre are main causes.

just before the fiscal cliff is resolved, Congressmen, aides, will tell consultants, lobbyists who will tell Wall st so the 1% can buy low and take profit from post fiscal cliff solution, then there's all the hedging.

[JohnnyMarzetti]

The market will bounce back. relax.

[Twisted_Dawg]

As long as interest rates are kept near zero by the Federal Reserve, and banks can borrow at 1% and then loan it to their very rich buddies on Wall Street at 2% who then drive up equity prices, the stock market will be just fine.

Keep in mind the money that is loaned is printed money and that the current asset bubble in bonds, equities and the dollar will one day soon burst like all bubbles always do. The Dutch Tulep Bubble circa 1600's, Dot Com Bubble late 1990's, and the real estate bubble post 9/11 all burst.

But when this current assest bubble bursts, look out.

[Latarian Milton]

oil price going down isn't a bad thing to us customers tho, the bright side of the darkness i think

[boutons_deux]

"Keep in mind the money that is loaned is printed money and that the current asset bubble in bonds, equities and the dollar will one day soon burst like all bubbles always do"

that's not a Dutch Tulip bubble or Banskters Great Housing bubble at all. It's just you scare mongering.

[Wild Cobra]

Stocks keep falling, Oil down below $85...doesn't look good IMHO.
Wow. Finally opened this thread.

The markets took an immediate 4% to 5% dive after the election results.

Pretty sad when this happens.

[Wild Cobra]

oil price going down isn't a bad thing to us customers tho, the bright side of the darkness i think
Well, I only looked at Exxon, not the others in that industry. They were hit harder, but some of it might be ships having to offload at other ports after Sandy.

[DMX7]

Wow. Finally opened this thread.

The markets took an immediate 4% to 5% dive after the election results.

Pretty sad when this happens.

More like the most predictable thing ever. Easy to make money off of the fools who oversell... the Euro markets did have an effect on the US markets though tbh.

[mercos]

I'm with DoK, traders are probably worried about cap gains tax increase. Economic signals coming from Europe and China are actually starting to improve, with the worst of the European sovereign debt crisis now behind us. China is now expected to possibly outpace their projected 7.5% growth rate for 2012. Signs have been positive here at home for some time. Consumer confidence is up, housing market is improving, and people are spending again. The fiscal cliff is the last hurdle to clear.

[Wild Cobra]

I think we'll see a lot through the end of the year and then it'll level off or rebound starting in 2013. A lot of people are gonna be in a hurry to recognize a cap gain before it goes up to 20%. If stocks continue to slump in 2013 then we're probably in trouble.


I'm with DoK, traders are probably worried about cap gains tax increase. Economic signals coming from Europe and China are actually starting to improve, with the worst of the European sovereign debt crisis now behind us. China is now expected to possibly outpace their projected 7.5% growth rate for 2012. Signs have been positive here at home for some time. Consumer confidence is up, housing market is improving, and people are spending again. The fiscal cliff is the last hurdle to clear.
I can see the uncertainty being an issue. In fact, I have in the past mentioned how expected tax and regulation changes affect things.

Anyone see a definitive answer yet as to what will happen to the SS rates and marginal tax rates for 2013?

My opinion is the SS rates need to go up to about 7.5%. Slowly however. I think if we were to incorporate an approximate 0.2% to 0.3% increase per quarter, that would be appropriate. As for the marginal rates, I want to see it go back to the Reagan Era marginal rates. Just two brackets. 15% and 28%. That, however, slowly too. Maybe a 1% per year increase for the rates increasing. get rid of almost all deductions as well.

[Nbadan]

I'm with DoK, traders are probably worried about cap gains tax increase. Economic signals coming from Europe and China are actually starting to improve, with the worst of the European sovereign debt crisis now behind us. China is now expected to possibly outpace their projected 7.5% growth rate for 2012. Signs have been positive here at home for some time. Consumer confidence is up, housing market is improving, and people are spending again. The fiscal cliff is the last hurdle to clear.

Pretty impressive given that 4 short years ago we were on the abyss of a complete financial meltdown. Let China have a hyper-inflated economy. I like me some 2-3% annual growth..

[Wild Cobra]

Pretty impressive given that 4 short years ago we were on the abyss of a complete financial meltdown. Let China have a hyper-inflated economy. I like me some 2-3% annual growth..
Yes.

According to the media. We are still as bad of today as four years ago. maybe worse.

[Nbadan]

Yes.

According to the media. We are still as bad of today as four years ago. maybe worse.

I guess all politics are local, but there's no immediate need to panic..,as RG already posted in another tread...borrowing is cheap

[Wild Cobra]

I guess all politics are local, but there's no immediate need to panic..,as RG already posted in another tread...borrowing is cheap
I wonder if he has any children to worry about, passing more debt on to?

[Nbadan]

I wonder if he has any children to worry about, passing more debt on to?

I have an idea...let's print 16 trillion dollars, pay off all our debt and see where the creditors, mostly US holders, put their money for a safe, guaranteed return

[boutons_deux]

Any Grand Bargain austerity Barry signs up to, and he'd love to cut Medicare and SS, will certainly prolong if not deepen the Banksters' Great Depression.

Long-winded but:

http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2012/11/bill-black-jobs-now-make-obamas-priority-reality-and-expose-the-lie-of-lazy-laborers.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+NakedCapitalism+%28naked+capi talism%29