timvp
11-21-2012, 02:25 PM
Since the San Antonio Spurs are only 11 games into their 2012-13 campaign, it’s still early to be drawing any statistical conclusions on an individual or team basis. The sample size is small -- not even 15% of a season -- and it’s apparent, painfully so at times, the Spurs and other teams around the NBA aren’t quite hitting on all cylinders yet.
However, one inescapable difference exists between this iteration of the Spurs and those of the recent past: defensive rebounding. Or, to be more specific, the complete and utter inability of the 2012-13 Spurs to rebound the basketball on the defensive end of the court at a tolerable level. Given the consistent dominance the Spurs have gotten accustomed to achieving in this very area, the shortcoming has stood out like a sore pinkie finger.
Heading into Wednesday night’s contest against the Boston Celtics, the Spurs are 23rd in the league in defensive rebounding percentage at 71.3%. In their last outing, San Antonio managed to grab only 63% of the available defensive boards in a 92-87 loss versus the Los Angeles Clippers.
The Spurs led the league in defensive rebounding percentage last season at 76%, though that stat alone doesn’t give justice to their perennial supremacy in recent times. Five of the 18 best defensive rebounding teams of all-time are Spurs squads of the past half-decade, including the best ever.
http://www.spurstalk.com/rebg1.png
To figure out the cause of the dramatic decline, the most logical starting point is to analyze the individual defensive rebounding percentages of each player. Since the Spurs have virtually the same cast as last season, the analytical process is rather straightforward.
http://www.spurstalk.com/rebg2.png
Eight of the 12 regulars have seen their individual defensive rebounding percentages drop. Most alarming is the precipitous dip by three of the team’s five bigmen. As it stands, Tiago Splitter, Boris Diaw and Matt Bonner are rebounding worse than the guards did last season. That realization alone illuminates a major source of the problem, which truthfully shouldn’t be much of a surprise for anyone who has watched the games thus far this season.
We could end the investigation there and point the finger at Splitter, Diaw and Bonner, while also hurling some blame at Danny Green and Manu Ginobili. It’s clear that those five players will need to rebound better for the Spurs to recapture their standing as an elite rebounding group on the defensive end. Nonetheless, let’s dig deeper in an effort to better pinpoint the root of the issue.
The following chart looks at the team defensive rebounding percentage while the specified player is on the court.
http://www.spurstalk.com/rebg3.png
Since the Spurs as a team are defensive rebounding 6.1% worse than last season, it’s rational that most ever player would be in the red. However, it is astounding how poorly the Spurs are rebounding with Bonner, Splitter or Diaw on the court. Sometimes bigmen can be helpful on the boards by boxing out and not necessarily pulling down individual rebounds (historically, Bonner fits in this category). But that’s not the case here.
(Let’s take a moment to praise DeJuan Blair. Again, it’s a small sample size, but I’ve criticized him regularly over the last couple seasons about his lack of defensive boards, so it’s only right that I commend him for his vastly improved play in this aspect.)
Though guards and swingmen can influence the rebounding stats to a degree, it’s typically up to the bigmen to control the backboard. With that in mind, the following chart contains the defensive rebounding percentage of the various possible bigmen pairings.
http://www.spurstalk.com/rebg4.png
What stands out the most is Blair’s strength across the board. If he is paired with anyone but Bonner, the Spurs are able to rebound at a very strong rate. And when paired with Bonner, Blair lifts Bonner to his best number.
The most worrisome revelation is the ineptness, to put it kindly, of the Splitter and Diaw combination. Grabbing only 57.4% of available defensive rebounds is ghastly and would certainly classify as a fatal flaw of this pairing if that number doesn’t radically improve. Considering that Splitter and Diaw have been playing together quite a bit lately as the bigman duo off the bench, it’s no wonder the Spurs have struggled to rebound so much.
Statistically speaking, the solutions to stop opponents from grabbing so many offensive rebounds are fairly clear. First of all, the Spurs need their perimeter players to rebound better (namely Ginobili and Green). Secondly, if Bonner doesn’t show some life on the boards, he’s simply not playable any longer. By every measurement, he’s been a total disaster on the defensive glass.
The next in line for blame is Splitter. And really, he’s probably the No. 1 culprit. Splitter is supposed to hold the fort while Duncan rests. Instead, the opposition has run roughshod over him. If he can’t at least return to last season’s form, the Spurs will have no choice other than to look for a new backup center. To put his frailty in perspective, San Antonio defensive rebounds at a better than league- average rate (73.5%) when he’s on the bench but drops to the worst rate in the entire league (66.9%) when he’s on the court. That’s especially poor since Splitter faces inferior competition coming off the bench.
Also, Diaw doesn’t escape responsibility for the slow start. While the team is rebounding at acceptable rates when he’s next to Duncan or Blair, Diaw needs to do more to help Splitter. Regardless of pairing, his individual rebounding has vast room for improvement.
And finally, Gregg Popovich has to be ready to make adjustments soon if progress isn’t made. One way or another, he’ll have to break up the Diaw and Splitter duo while also keeping Bonner on the sidelines. That’s a tricky proposition -- and very well may require a player being brought in via trade or free agency -- but the defensive rebounding problem will continue to result in otherwise avoidable losses until it’s properly resolved.
However, one inescapable difference exists between this iteration of the Spurs and those of the recent past: defensive rebounding. Or, to be more specific, the complete and utter inability of the 2012-13 Spurs to rebound the basketball on the defensive end of the court at a tolerable level. Given the consistent dominance the Spurs have gotten accustomed to achieving in this very area, the shortcoming has stood out like a sore pinkie finger.
Heading into Wednesday night’s contest against the Boston Celtics, the Spurs are 23rd in the league in defensive rebounding percentage at 71.3%. In their last outing, San Antonio managed to grab only 63% of the available defensive boards in a 92-87 loss versus the Los Angeles Clippers.
The Spurs led the league in defensive rebounding percentage last season at 76%, though that stat alone doesn’t give justice to their perennial supremacy in recent times. Five of the 18 best defensive rebounding teams of all-time are Spurs squads of the past half-decade, including the best ever.
http://www.spurstalk.com/rebg1.png
To figure out the cause of the dramatic decline, the most logical starting point is to analyze the individual defensive rebounding percentages of each player. Since the Spurs have virtually the same cast as last season, the analytical process is rather straightforward.
http://www.spurstalk.com/rebg2.png
Eight of the 12 regulars have seen their individual defensive rebounding percentages drop. Most alarming is the precipitous dip by three of the team’s five bigmen. As it stands, Tiago Splitter, Boris Diaw and Matt Bonner are rebounding worse than the guards did last season. That realization alone illuminates a major source of the problem, which truthfully shouldn’t be much of a surprise for anyone who has watched the games thus far this season.
We could end the investigation there and point the finger at Splitter, Diaw and Bonner, while also hurling some blame at Danny Green and Manu Ginobili. It’s clear that those five players will need to rebound better for the Spurs to recapture their standing as an elite rebounding group on the defensive end. Nonetheless, let’s dig deeper in an effort to better pinpoint the root of the issue.
The following chart looks at the team defensive rebounding percentage while the specified player is on the court.
http://www.spurstalk.com/rebg3.png
Since the Spurs as a team are defensive rebounding 6.1% worse than last season, it’s rational that most ever player would be in the red. However, it is astounding how poorly the Spurs are rebounding with Bonner, Splitter or Diaw on the court. Sometimes bigmen can be helpful on the boards by boxing out and not necessarily pulling down individual rebounds (historically, Bonner fits in this category). But that’s not the case here.
(Let’s take a moment to praise DeJuan Blair. Again, it’s a small sample size, but I’ve criticized him regularly over the last couple seasons about his lack of defensive boards, so it’s only right that I commend him for his vastly improved play in this aspect.)
Though guards and swingmen can influence the rebounding stats to a degree, it’s typically up to the bigmen to control the backboard. With that in mind, the following chart contains the defensive rebounding percentage of the various possible bigmen pairings.
http://www.spurstalk.com/rebg4.png
What stands out the most is Blair’s strength across the board. If he is paired with anyone but Bonner, the Spurs are able to rebound at a very strong rate. And when paired with Bonner, Blair lifts Bonner to his best number.
The most worrisome revelation is the ineptness, to put it kindly, of the Splitter and Diaw combination. Grabbing only 57.4% of available defensive rebounds is ghastly and would certainly classify as a fatal flaw of this pairing if that number doesn’t radically improve. Considering that Splitter and Diaw have been playing together quite a bit lately as the bigman duo off the bench, it’s no wonder the Spurs have struggled to rebound so much.
Statistically speaking, the solutions to stop opponents from grabbing so many offensive rebounds are fairly clear. First of all, the Spurs need their perimeter players to rebound better (namely Ginobili and Green). Secondly, if Bonner doesn’t show some life on the boards, he’s simply not playable any longer. By every measurement, he’s been a total disaster on the defensive glass.
The next in line for blame is Splitter. And really, he’s probably the No. 1 culprit. Splitter is supposed to hold the fort while Duncan rests. Instead, the opposition has run roughshod over him. If he can’t at least return to last season’s form, the Spurs will have no choice other than to look for a new backup center. To put his frailty in perspective, San Antonio defensive rebounds at a better than league- average rate (73.5%) when he’s on the bench but drops to the worst rate in the entire league (66.9%) when he’s on the court. That’s especially poor since Splitter faces inferior competition coming off the bench.
Also, Diaw doesn’t escape responsibility for the slow start. While the team is rebounding at acceptable rates when he’s next to Duncan or Blair, Diaw needs to do more to help Splitter. Regardless of pairing, his individual rebounding has vast room for improvement.
And finally, Gregg Popovich has to be ready to make adjustments soon if progress isn’t made. One way or another, he’ll have to break up the Diaw and Splitter duo while also keeping Bonner on the sidelines. That’s a tricky proposition -- and very well may require a player being brought in via trade or free agency -- but the defensive rebounding problem will continue to result in otherwise avoidable losses until it’s properly resolved.