Ghazi
11-27-2012, 11:39 AM
Here are some early lines I like
New Orleans @ Atlanta -3.5
I'll probably buy the hook... I love the idea of fading the worst defense in the NFL on the road in a revenge spot. We have Matt Ryan and his dynamic group of receivers against a team that isn't great at getting pressure to the QB, and is 29th in opponent passer rating. Atlanta checks out as a below average defense this year, but it's primarily against the run. As far as pressure and pass defense, they're passable. Although my research indicates Atlanta is nowhere near as good as their 10-1 record, I like them here given New Orleans' atrocious defense.
Minnesota +9 @ Green Bay
I always love taking the dog in large spreads, but there are concerns. We have the best QB in the NFL v a shaky secondary... but on the flipside, we have a decent defensive line w/ Jared Allen v a banged up offensive line that looked horrible against the Giants. We also have one of the best rushing attacks in the NFL led by the best RB in the NFL. Also consider GB has a weak running game. Matthews and Woodson being out, along with other Packers injuries, make me like the Vikes here despite a severe mismatch at QB.
Tampa Bay @ Denver -7
Major mismatch alert... Denver has one of the best offensive lines in the NFL while Tampa Bay is pretty bad at getting pressure to the QB... doesn't bode well against Manning. Led by Dumervil/Miller Denver has quietly had a great season defensively,highlighted by pressuring the QB and a strong rushing defense. Denver is top 5 both offensively and defensively as far as yards per play. Home field advantage, strong defense, superior QB... I might have to swallow 7 points and take the Broncos here... might buy the hook and make it 6.5
New Orleans @ Atlanta -3.5
I'll probably buy the hook... I love the idea of fading the worst defense in the NFL on the road in a revenge spot. We have Matt Ryan and his dynamic group of receivers against a team that isn't great at getting pressure to the QB, and is 29th in opponent passer rating. Atlanta checks out as a below average defense this year, but it's primarily against the run. As far as pressure and pass defense, they're passable. Although my research indicates Atlanta is nowhere near as good as their 10-1 record, I like them here given New Orleans' atrocious defense.
Minnesota +9 @ Green Bay
I always love taking the dog in large spreads, but there are concerns. We have the best QB in the NFL v a shaky secondary... but on the flipside, we have a decent defensive line w/ Jared Allen v a banged up offensive line that looked horrible against the Giants. We also have one of the best rushing attacks in the NFL led by the best RB in the NFL. Also consider GB has a weak running game. Matthews and Woodson being out, along with other Packers injuries, make me like the Vikes here despite a severe mismatch at QB.
Tampa Bay @ Denver -7
Major mismatch alert... Denver has one of the best offensive lines in the NFL while Tampa Bay is pretty bad at getting pressure to the QB... doesn't bode well against Manning. Led by Dumervil/Miller Denver has quietly had a great season defensively,highlighted by pressuring the QB and a strong rushing defense. Denver is top 5 both offensively and defensively as far as yards per play. Home field advantage, strong defense, superior QB... I might have to swallow 7 points and take the Broncos here... might buy the hook and make it 6.5