Avante's quest for 70% - The math behind it

[DUNCANownsKOBE]

Currently, Avante sits at 34-32-1 and claims he'll still reach 70%.

There are 5 weeks left in the regular season, so 80 remaining regular season games. Avante says he never bets Thursday night games, so there's really 76 regular season games left to bet on.

76 games plus 11 playoff games gives Avante a total of 87 games left to possibly bet on. Lets look at how he needs to do. For the sake of argument, we'll round 69.9% up to 70%-

If Avante bets on 87 of the 87 games, he would need to go 73-14 (83.9% success) for a final record of 107-46-1 (69.9%)

If Avante bets on 77 of the 87 games, he would need to go 66-11 (85.7% success) for a final record of 100-43-1 (69.9%)

If Avante bets on 67 of the 87 games, he would need to go 59-8 (88.1% success) for a final record of 93-40-1 (69.9%)

If Avante bets on 57 of the 87 games, he would need to go 52-5 (91.2% success) for a final record of 86-37-1 (69.9%)

If Avante bets on 47 of the 87 games, he would need to go 45-2 (95.7% success) for a final record of 79-34-1 (69.9%)

If Avante bets on 37 of the 87 games, he could go 37-0 (100% success) for a final record of 71-32-1 (68.9) but fall short of 70%

If Avante bets less than 40 of the remaining games (which gets him up to 69.8% but I'll give it to him), it is statistically impossible for him to reach 70% :lmao:lmao:lmao:lmao:lmao

[GoodOdor]

Tbh Avante already set up his excuse months ago - ":crythe % doesn't matter because I make money:cry".

Still, his insistence that he's gonna hit 70% despite the fact that he has shows he bets as good as a monkey flipping a coin is quite amusing.

Fat ol' fuck.

[Creepn]

Looks like Avante needs to start betting on Thursday night football then.

[KoolAid Mans Brother]

I am, I mentioned still getting my 70%, as usual you never get it right. I talk the NFL on some other boards where others actually know the game. Grown ups!


I have every intention of hitting 70%, I always do, just thought I'd jerk your dumbass around a little, it's funny watching you. A moron who can't pick at all calling others stupid, hahaha!!!!!!!!!!


Is figuring out I could be at 61% in three weeks and we have 7 weeks left and then the playoffs leftthat hard to figure? 70% no problem!


:lmao

[dirk4mvp]

Sucks to suck at something you claim to be an expert at, imho.

[KoolAid Mans Brother]

Someone who can't understand basic math should never claim to be a betting expert. Betting experts are not only knowledgeable, but they also spend countless hours crunching every piece of information that will give them a competitive advantage. Betting experts don't spend time making countless lists about the history of the NFL to try and justify that they know the game.

[dirk4mvp]

I doubt betting experts post 25 times a day on a message board getting into arguments with people 40 years younger than him either.

[Clipper Nation]

Tbh, he already ethered his own "betting expert" schtick in advance months ago when he admitted that he had no idea how odds worked.... this saga is just the nail in the coffin, tbh...

[benefactor]

This has been a pretty entertaining side story to the season this year...and perhaps Avante's only redeeming quality.

[DUNCANownsKOBE]

Avante, get your ass in here and explain how you plan on reaching 70% :lmao:lmao:lmao

[Avante]

Avante (http://www.spurstalk.com/forums/member.php?u=33483), get your ass in here and explain how you plan on reaching 70% :lmao:lmao:lmao

As we can see I am winning $, remember I upped the bet to 220 to win 200.

Now it will be 330 to win 300.

Let's see how it goes.

Did I ever mention I was a salesman?

[Blake]

As we can see I am winning $, remember I upped the bet to 220 to win 200.

Now it will be 330 to win 300.

Let's see how it goes.

Did I ever mention I was a salesman?

Someone called this.

Was it Clipper?

[LnGrrrR]

This thread is full of win, unlike Avante's predictions.

[GoodOdor]

Someone called this.

Was it Clipper?


Tbh Avante already set up his excuse months ago - ":crythe % doesn't matter because I make money:cry".

Still, his insistence that he's gonna hit 70% despite the fact that he has shows he bets as good as a monkey flipping a coin is quite amusing.

Fat ol' fuck.

[johnsmith]

This thread is full of win, unlike Avante's predictions.

I'm predicting that he lands right at around 55%, brags about how much (fictional) money he made, and then turns around and tells us he really doesn't bet on games all the time and trolled all of us.

[Clipper Nation]

As we can see I am winning $, remember I upped the bet to 220 to win 200.

Now it will be 330 to win 300.

Let's see how it goes.

Did I ever mention I was a salesman?
I wouldn't buy jackshit from you, since you would welch on every offer :lol

[Blake]

called it

Even though none of us doubted you would be wrong, well played.

[DUNCANownsKOBE]

As we can see I am winning $, remember I upped the bet to 220 to win 200.

Now it will be 330 to win 300.

Let's see how it goes.

Did I ever mention I was a salesman?

None of this has anything to do with you claiming you hit on 70% of your bets.

Liar.

[Avante]

I have always (last 10 years anyway) hit 70% or better, this will be no different.

I am talking about 70% of the $$$$$$$$$$$ I play. Now watch how it goes with 330 to win 300 goes. If anyone would have kept track of my 110 them 220 bets you'd see where I'm really at. So pay attention to what happens next. The bottom line is always...$$$$$$$$$$$. I don't play the same amount of $$$$$ for a season.

I played along with you kiddies who have no clue what beating the spread is enought about. Now it's time to bring it home. Watch what happens next.

[Avante]

I wouldn't buy jackshit from you, since you would welch on every offer :lol



I have no doubt you shop for jackshit. Ya uncreative moron.

[johnsmith]

I have always (last 10 years anyway) hit 70% or better, this will be no different.

I am talking about 70% of the $$$$$$$$$$$ I play. Now watch how it goes with 330 to win 300 goes. If anyone would have kept track of my 110 them 220 bets you'd see where I'm really at. So pay attention to what happens next. The bottom line is always...$$$$$$$$$$$. I don't play the same amount of $$$$$ for a season.

I played along with you kiddies who have no clue what beating the spread is enought about. Now it's time to bring it home. Watch what happens next.

Lol!!!! What a welching faggot!!!! If it was about the money this whole time and not the picks, why didn't you post te amount you were betting each game and not just the picks?

[Lincoln]

I have always (last 10 years anyway) hit 70% or better, this will be no different.

I am talking about 70% of the $$$$$$$$$$$ I play. Now watch how it goes with 330 to win 300 goes. If anyone would have kept track of my 110 them 220 bets you'd see where I'm really at. So pay attention to what happens next. The bottom line is always...$$$$$$$$$$$. I don't play the same amount of $$$$$ for a season.

I played along with you kiddies who have no clue what beating the spread is enought about. Now it's time to bring it home. Watch what happens next.

When will Russell Wilson start outplaying RG3 and Luck?

[KoolAid Mans Brother]

:lmao desperately reaching by trying to change the meaning of 70% so he can save face. This is a new low :lmao

[Avante]

Not at all, this isn't the weekly pick um contest this is about $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$. I never said it wasn't. I don't give a shit how many games I win it's all about how much $$$$$$$$$ I win. I will win 70% of the $$$$$$$$$$$$ I play. I made it very clear I played 110 to win a 100 then upped it to 220 to win 200 and now at this stage of the season it's 330 to win 300 as I always do. The playoffs will be 550 to win 500. I knew you punk ass kids didn't get it, hahahaha!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Avante]

When will Russell Wilson start outplaying RG3 and Luck?


You really do need to bone up on football, any and all. You talk like some 12 yr old kid. This is their.....ROOKIEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE...sea son. Do you have any idea at all what the word....ROOKIE!!!...means? How about we give it a few seasons, ya think?

Damn, it's like I'm in kindergarden around here, wow!

[Lincoln]

Hey dipshit, you said Russell Wilson would have a better ROOKIE season than Luck and RG3

[Avante]

Hey dipshit, you said Russell Wilson would have a better ROOKIE season than Luck and RG3

Prove it!

[DUNCANownsKOBE]

:lmao changing the lane

[Avante]

:lmao changing the lane

I wasn't the one getting all caught up in wins vs loses, you guys were. Why do you think I upped the wager? You start off slow, then around week 5/6 double the bet, then around right now up the bet again. Time tested method, why do you think I never wavered away from 70%? Did I not always...yep, 70% ison it's way....well? I don't lose $$$$$$$$$ betting the NFL, I will win 70% like I always do.

If it were like a pick um why even mehtion $$$$$$$$$$ at all. Who can hit 70 doing it the way you are talking about vs the spread? You can however win 70% of your bank roll you have played, I do it all the time.

[DUNCANownsKOBE]

If it were like a pick um why even mehtion $$$$$$$$$$ at all..

You've had several weeks this year where no $$$$$$$$$$$ were mentioned. Now you've moved onto, "I've wagered more the weeks I've done well than I have the weeks I haven't!"

How much have you wagered this year and what is your net gain/loss (and we all know you bet at least $500 on the week 1 Detroit/St. Louis game)?

[Clipper Nation]

I'm surprised Avante's bookies put up with his welching, evasive ways....

[Blake]

He's had plenty of time to clarify.

But he didn't.

He's a fucking idiot.

[Clipper Nation]

I don't lose $$$$$$$$$ betting the NFL, I will win 70% like I always do.

Barring a miraculous statistical outlier of epic proportions, you won't win 70% this yearPERIOD

I strongly doubt someone who couldn't read odds until this season and whose "locks of the week" always fail could hit 70% every year...

[Lincoln]

Prove it!

Check the seahawks thread I just bumped and quoted you in

You said he would be the best 2012 rookie QB.

You're a fucking dumbass. Oh, you got a quote notification from it so you can't dodge it just like the $$$$ thread

[Avante]

Are you for real? I mentioned early on 110 to win a 100, then mentioned when I switched to 220 to win 200. You really thought I played for the hell of it...hahahahahaha!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! I also play the college game as I have mentioned.

I'm up at around plus 1500 so far. Just won 500 on that Miami/Seattle game.

I'll fess up a little...

Once I saw the immaturity displayed on this board and the total lack of depth...no no no nothing but right now....I decided to jerk some chains, have a few laughs. You little fucks are fun-knee!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Now however it's time to lower the boom, start padding that bank roll. Fun n; games..over. I need another couple thou to have for the playoffs. Watch the master at work.

[Avante]

Check the seahawks thread I just bumped and quoted you in

You said he would be the best 2012 rookie QB.

You're a fucking dumbass. Oh, you got a quote notification from it so you can't dodge it just like the $$$$ thread

And he still will be the best 2012 QB.

[Lincoln]

And he still will be the best 2012 QB.

How so?

[Avante]

How so?

Dude, stop, take both hands place them on your head and jerk. Do people bug you about why you wander around with your head stuck two feet up your ass?

Think!!!!!!!!!!!

[Lincoln]

Dude, stop, take both hands place them on your head and jerk. Do people bug you about why you wander around with your head stuck two feet up your ass?

Think!!!!!!!!!!!

You're consistently wrong on your predictions though and tried to deny that you said Wilson would have a better rookie year. Maybe you should think

[Avante]

You're consistently wrong on your predictions though and tried to deny that you said Wilson would have a better rookie year. Maybe you should think

Tell me what you see here?

http://espn.go.com/nfl/statistics/player/_/stat/passing/sort/quarterbackRating

Notice how both black QB's are out performing Luck? You had no idea where Willson was with these stats did ya?

I am actually seeing Wilson as having the better career.

[dirk4mvp]

That's the same stat Alex Smith was #1 in at one point correct?

[GoodOdor]

Tbh, how exactly does someone win 70% of the "money" he bets when he only wins about 50% of the bets?

[Avante]

Tbh, how exactly does someone win 70% of the "money" he bets when he only wins about 50% of the bets?

It's all about varying amounts of $$$$$ played. You lose 5 bets at a buck a game, then you win one game at 10 bucks a game. You are 1-5 but up 5 bucks.

Maybe next season we'll have a straight up pick um contest. This isn't that.

Law of averages, has you losing then losing as we know you will win sooner or later, so the more times you lose you keep upping the bet so when that win does come and it will.......

While that is a real simplistic example it does work that way.

[KoolAid Mans Brother]

Currently, Avante sits at 34-32-1 and claims he'll still reach 70%.There are 5 weeks left in the regular season, so 80 remaining regular season games. Avante says he never bets Thursday night games, so there's really 76 regular season games left to bet on.76 games plus 11 playoff games gives Avante a total of 87 games left to possibly bet on. Lets look at how he needs to do. For the sake of argument, we'll round 69.9% up to 70%-If Avante bets on 87 of the 87 games, he would need to go 73-14 (83.9% success) for a final record of 107-46-1 (69.9%)If Avante bets on 77 of the 87 games, he would need to go 66-11 (85.7% success) for a final record of 100-43-1 (69.9%)If Avante bets on 67 of the 87 games, he would need to go 59-8 (88.1% success) for a final record of 93-40-1 (69.9%)If Avante bets on 57 of the 87 games, he would need to go 52-5 (91.2% success) for a final record of 86-37-1 (69.9%)If Avante bets on 47 of the 87 games, he would need to go 45-2 (95.7% success) for a final record of 79-34-1 (69.9%)If Avante bets on 37 of the 87 games, he could go 37-0 (100% success) for a final record of 71-32-1 (68.9) but fall short of 70%If Avante bets less than 40 of the remaining games (which gets him up to 69.8% but I'll give it to him), it is statistically impossible for him to reach 70% :lmao:lmao:lmao:lmao:lmao

Updated: 38-37-1

:lmao a c.unt hair above .500

[DUNCANownsKOBE]

How much have you wagered this year and what is your net gain/loss (and we all know you bet at least $500 on the week 1 Detroit/St. Louis game)?

I like how he completely dodged this one.

[Blake]

I like how he completely dodged this one.

if he is going to blow his load on one game to try to catch up on his losses, he'd better post that game and exactly how much money he is putting on it so that I/we can put that lol at the top of his already long list of lols.

[GoodOdor]

Can DoK or one of our yellow brothers chim in and help explain how someone who statistically only wins 50% of his bets can manage to win 70% of the $ bet? seems highly improbable, tbh.

Of course, his shitty bets are there to see, but the $ tally isn't....I wonder why:lol

[Blake]

I have always (last 10 years anyway) hit 70% or better, this will be no different.

I am talking about 70% of the $$$$$$$$$$$ I play. Now watch how it goes with 330 to win 300 goes. If anyone would have kept track of my 110 them 220 bets you'd see where I'm really at. So pay attention to what happens next. The bottom line is always...$$$$$$$$$$$. I don't play the same amount of $$$$$ for a season.

I played along with you kiddies who have no clue what beating the spread is enought about. Now it's time to bring it home. Watch what happens next.

Lol 2012

[KoolAid Mans Brother]

:lmao "I have always hit 70% or better"

What a fucking pathetic liar.

[Blake]

":cry I was just playing around Mason under the bus but now it's time to get real"

[benefactor]

I wouldn't buy jackshit from you, since you would welch on every offer :lol
Oh the irony.

[Clipper Nation]

:lmao