NBA ATS Picks

[Ghazi]

For all the sportsbettors... let is begin


currently 5-2 in NBA betting.

Locked in for tomorrow: Warriors -4

Bobcats are still just a year removed from a historically bad team... and are bottom 5 in defense, offense, and rebounding rate. Their little revival earlier in the year was simply winning close games. Already they've been blown out by 27+ three times. They struggle defending the PF and PG positions (Lee/Curry), meanwhile with the stiffs in their frontcourt cannot expose the Warriors' shaky interior defense. Apparent culture change in process in the Bay Area.

[ElNono]

sup Ghazi... long time no see...

[Latarian Milton]

lets bring our talent to da political forum brah, we're gonna need your intellect to spruce up that place tbh. we need some unbiased objective comments on the middle-east issues

[Ghazi]

win: Denver -5

leans tomorrow: Cavs +8.5, Hawks -4.5, Clippers -8

[FkLA]

How much do you usually win/lose in a season brah? Ive been considering stepping into the gambling game tbh.

[Malik Hairston]

I generally bet 100$/unit for NBA games, I find it much easier than NFL..

DD and I posted our NBA bets regularly last year, I don't remember anybody else that participated though..

[Ghazi]

wins: Hawks -4, Wizards +10.5
losses: Cavs +8.5, Grizzlies -6.5

9-4 YTD

Malik start postin em!

[Ghazi]

Knicks -6 win

10-4 YTD

leans tomorrow: Celtics +2.5, Wolves -4, Warriors -5, Nuggets -1.5

[Ghazi]

made all those plays, went 2-2

already locked in Jazz -2. First, I actually like the matchup with the Grizz. Powerful offensive rebounding team with solid passing/shooting in the halfcourt but also they have a transition game, which Memphis struggled with tonight. Deep and big, that's the Utah Jazz... this is a matchup where the Grizz' frontcourt advantage isn't even that much of an advantage, if one at all. Utah has the best frontcourt depth in the league.

Second, who the fuck wins a tail end of a b2b in Utah? It's the most unfair scheduling spot in the NBA IMO.

[Ghazi]

0-2 tonight. the "Ghaz" system falls to 12-8 in NBA

harlem I need your wisdom!

[Malik Hairston]

Clippers -6.5 x2units
Thunder -5.5 x5units
Rockets +9.5 x1unit

[Ghazi]

Nice looks like you went 3-0 there

I went 0-1 w/ the Wolves... it was a last second gut pick.. they blew a 15 half lead.

I just really like their team and felt Pekovic would have a big game... he had 19/12... but I didn't anticipate Glen Davis going bananas.

[Malik Hairston]

Ya, I stopped watching that game at the half, I thought Minnesota was cruising at the half..

Leaning towards Atlanta, Indiana and Golden State..

[Ghazi]

any thought on the Nuggets tomorrow?

They're just so lethal in that arena IMO...small sample so far this year, but +12.9 points per 100 possessions...

and it's a b2b for the Spurs. I know they didn't play their guys much tonight, btu I digress.

I suppose the status of Manu is a factor too.

I like Bulls -1.5 v Celtics... think Bulls are being undervalued too. They'll guard the 3 point line and the Celtics are atrocious on the offensive glass... should mean points are gonna be hard to come by for the Celtics.. who are quite frankly, just not a very good team this year. Williams abused the smallish guards of the Bulls last saturday, but Rondo doesn't have much of a post up game.

[Malik Hairston]

Nuggets at -2.5 is great value..I'm not fully confident in it, but the value is high enough to bet it IMO..the only concern is that the Spurs are desperate for a win and they match up well against them..

[Ghazi]

yeah... the matchup don't thrill me exactly... I'm just conditioned to think a tail end of a b2b in Denver is almost like a scheduled loss. Although Miami won the tail end of a b2b in Denver earlier this year.

[Malik Hairston]

Hawks -6 x1units
Pacers +2.5 x1unit
Nuggets -2 x2units
Warriors -7 x1unit
Lakers -12 x2units

EDIT..not betting O/U on Lakers game

[DPG21920]

How much do you usually win/lose in a season brah? Ive been considering stepping into the gambling game tbh.

:lmao shut the hell up

[FkLA]

No joke. I got a bunch of cash laying around tbh. :greedy

[Malik Hairston]

1-3-1 -1 unit

Horrible night..lost the Hawks game by 1, pushed the Warriors game, lost the Pacers game by free throws..



4-3-1 +7 units

[Ghazi]

2-1 for me...
Bulls/Nugs cover... lakers... I hate that pick in retrospect, I thought Dwight would have a field day and the Lakers would simply you know, take care of business against a borderline NBA team like the Bobcats... alas.. the quick guards continue to bother the Lakers.

looking at Raptors -2.5 and Hawks +6.5 tomorrow.

[Malik Hairston]

Lakers have been my worst team to bet on over the years, they are a gambler's nightmare, tbh..

Do you vary your betting units or you just bet the same amount per game?..

[Ghazi]

1-1 for me.. Raptors -2.5, Hawks +6.5

looking at hammering the Wolves tomorrow.

[Ghazi]

I know hindsight is 20/20, but I ws staring hard at Pacers -3.5 and just didn't bet it. I feel like the lines can't ever truly compensate for the significant difference between the road Jazz and the away Jazz... also Pacers offense is significantly better at home so far this year, for whatever easo... and they're a top 5 defensive team that has a decent frontcourt to compete w/ Utah. turned out to be a blowout.

[Ghazi]

heavy lean toward Wolves +4.5 tommorow

first off, I don't think the matchups are that bad. Pekovic can score on the Thunder... Kirilenko can do a decent job on Durant... obv not stop him.. well Love is a queston mark with his shooting touch, but put up 51/14 in a game last year on the Thunder. Ibaka's defense is overrated... Rubio if he gets substantial minutes can be a pesk. Wolves are just a solid all around defensive team.. even better at home.

a note on the Thunder's away games.. tey have 2 games v New Orleans, and 1 v Bulls, Nets, Hawks, and Sixers. Interestingly enough, these 6 games are against some of the team's worst home teams as far as better performance. all 6 of those teams actually perform the same or WORSE at home than on the road. Wolvse however perform close to the average, about 6.5 points per 100 possessions better at home than on the road. The other 3 road games are against the Pistons, Spurs, and Celtics... 1-2 there.

I know that seems like a quirky stat, but I find it really interesting that 6 o their 9 road games are against teams that play relatively the same at home and on the road. It's as if they havven't been exposed to an actual home court advantage for the most part, which the Wolves so far, do have.

[Ghazi]

Wolves +3.5 win.. 16-10 ytd

leans tomorrow:

Raptors -3.5 - The team's played better with Alan Anderson. It seems Bargnani/Lowry not playing are addition by subtraction, especially on the defensive end. Raptors are one of the best "bad" teams at home, sporting a net of +3.3 per 100 possessions so far this year, which qualifies as average. Davis is out for the Magic.. not too big a deal, but the 2nd leading scorer on a team already starving for points? Nicholson/McRoberts can probably fill his role to some extent, but it makes a difference.

Wizards +6 - Detroit basically has no home court advantage and it should be treated almost as if it's a neutral site game... and Pistons may not be good enough to spot the Wizards 6 points in that spot. Cartier Martin/Nene make the Wizards a better team... Beal being hurt again is a case of addition by subtraction with improved defense. It seems injuries to young players that put up nice numbers can end up improving teams at times, since young players are typically horrible defensively. Both teams are lousy, but I'm not sure the Wizards are lousy enough to spot 6 points and absolutely have a chance at a SU victory. Value of Wizards also hurt due to a 2-7 record in OT games/games decided by 4 or less.

Spurs -14 v Hornets - I hate swallowing a lot of points, but quite frankly, this line "should" be 16-18.. and the Spurs depth means that even while resting they can keep their foot on the gas. I've watched Hornets v Wolves and Lakers.. Howard/Pekovic destroyed their interior defense... if Duncan feels like it, he can have a huge game..glaring bad stat for New Orleans... they allow 40% from beyond the arc and are 26th in opponents 3 pt rate... teams can get looks at 3s against this team and make them.. great positive for the Spurs. Will look and see whose playing, but I might be comfortable laying 14 points here. While it seems like Davis is a huge impact for the Hornets, their defense is downright atrocious when he's on the court.. bright future but negligible impact at this point in his career. Forecasts say the Spurs will win this game by 20+ points with the big 3 producing big time and 10+ 3 pointers made with a high %.

[Ghazi]

1-3 :cry