Royals just got bent over by the Rays

[Clipper Nation]

http://aol.sportingnews.com/mlb/story/2012-12-09/rays-royals-trade-james-shields-wil-myers-wade-davis-blockbuster



Don’t look now, but the American League just gained another contender. After trading with the Tampa Bay Rays for right-handers James Shields and Wade Davis on Sunday night, the Kansas City Royals are looking like a legitimate threat in the AL Central.

The price for pitching was steep for the Royals, who gave up the game’s top hitting prospect, 22-year-old outfielder Wil Myers, and three other prospects: right-hander Jake Odorizzi, 22; left-hander Mike Montgomery, 23; and third baseman Patrick Leonard, 20.

[JMarkJohns]

It's a heist, for certain. I laughed my ass off this morning reading Rosenthal trying to promote this trade as even. The Royals just traded an A++ prospect in Myers, an A/A+ prospect in Odorizzi, and two solid B/B+ prospects for a productive #2 in Shields with just teo club control years remainjng and five years of a career underachiever in Davies. Getting Myers without giving up Price is absolute larceny.

[symple19]

It's hilarious watching both the Royals and the Twins try desperately to acquire pitching and emulate what the Giants were able to do to the Tigers. What neither team understands is that it took the Giants 10+ years to build what they have, and a GM who strictly adheres to a system that stresses development over sudden change.

lol

[JMarkJohns]

And not selling a prospect like Buster Posey for a two year rental...

[Pelicans78]

Fuck you Dayton Moore!!! Worst GM by far in the league. FML

[exstatic]

The Tigers also thank you for dropping out of the Sanchez derby, KC. :lol

[AFBlue]

It's a heist, for certain. I laughed my ass off this morning reading Rosenthal trying to promote this trade as even. The Royals just traded an A++ prospect in Myers, an A/A+ prospect in Odorizzi, and two solid B/B+ prospects for a productive #2 in Shields with just teo club control years remainjng and five years of a career underachiever in Davies. Getting Myers without giving up Price is absolute larceny.

I think you're underratimg Shields, who is instantly their #1...a guy that will give you 200 innings and a handful of complete games. I think he's being underrated because the stuff doesn't scream "ace", but he had very consistent success in the toughest division in baseball with mostly suspect offensive support. And though Davis (not Davies) hasn't lived up to the #2/3 ceiling, he's a versatile piece that can be used to fill out the rotation or as a high-leverage reliever where he's had success.

I do ultimately think the Rays are the winner because in the end they're closer to contention after the trade than the Royals and they picked up a potential middle-of-the-order bat for the next six years. But the deal isn't the fleecing that some have suggested because the Royals traded for needs and didn't give up ML depth.

[Mel_13]

I think you're underratimg Shields, who is instantly their #1...a guy that will give you 200 innings and a handful of complete games. I think he's being underrated because the stuff doesn't scream "ace", but he had very consistent success in the toughest division in baseball with mostly suspect offensive support. And though Davis (not Davies) hasn't lived up to the #2/3 ceiling, he's a versatile piece that can be used to fill out the rotation or as a high-leverage reliever where he's had success.

I do ultimately think the Rays are the winner because in the end they're closer to contention after the trade than the Royals and they picked up a potential middle-of-the-order bat for the next six years. But the deal isn't the fleecing that some have suggested because the Royals traded for needs and didn't give up ML depth.

Still have to give great credit to the Tampa FO. They deal with a limited budget, a crappy stadium, and an apathetic fanbase and continue to field a very competitive team year after year. Imagine what they could do with the resources available to the Yankees or the Red Sox. In fact, I don't understand why teams like that continue to screw around and don't just offer to double or triple the salary of every key member of the Tampa FO and scouting department and get rid of the guys that can barely compete with Tampa despite a massive financial advantage.

[Pelicans78]

Shields may be the Royals number one, but alot of average pitchers in this league would be the Royals number one. Shields is a number 2 at best and Wade Davis is an unknown commodity as a starter. You don't trade Wil Myers for a number 2-3 starter in this league. The Royals were bad across the board last season and they could easily use Myers in RF over that piece of crap Jeff Francouer. The fact is, the Royals GM was desperate and he made a poor move just to try to win sooner. However, if the Royals offense doesn't improve, this trade won't be enough to get them to the playoffs and Shields will be gone after that. Really a poor move for the amount he gave up just to get Shields and Davis. Awful trade. The GM should have been fired after last season.

[JMarkJohns]

If Shields had four or more years of club control, the trade would be closer to even. He doesn't. He has two, which means the Royals may just get one season of him before trading him next offseason. Even if he stays both, taking a true #2 and turning him into an ace is no guarantee of contention, or even above-.500 relevance. And you don't trade prospects like Myers for non-guarantees, or potentially just a season or two of Shields.

[TIMMYtoZO]

Are any of these prospects ready to contribute in 2013 for Tampa? If so, then look out. If Longoria can get consistent help, Tampa is going to be scary good. They won't miss Shields, they have that other young arm (Cobb?) who is ready to replace him. Tampa knows how to handle pitching. The O is what they need to work on. If Longoria can stay healthy and have help, the Tigers have serious competition for thr AL race.

[JMarkJohns]

Myers, yes, Odorizzi, maybe. Rays need remaining starters to pitch up to their potential to be legit, but Myers should be a significant addition at the plate.

[JMarkJohns]

If I'm Royals GM, I sign McCarthy to a deal similar to 2/17, then trade Odorizzi and prospects for a quality young arm like Holland in a three-team deal that sends Shields/Davis/prospect to Texas, and Olt/Odorizzi to Tampa, but keep Myers at all costs.

[TIMMYtoZO]

Myers, yes, Odorizzi, maybe. Rays need remaining starters to pitch up to their potential to be legit, but Myers should be a significant addition at the plate.

Didn't the Rays have the best pitching staff in the regular season ERA wise? They have Price/Hellickson as well. Their bullpen is damn good and Rodney showed something as a closer. Tampa is fine pitching wise. The bats are what killed them.

[JMarkJohns]

Their back end 4/5s are now 3/4s and their 5 will be unproven. Plenty on question marks, but overall, if you're 90% of teams you take the Rays team over your own.

[AFBlue]

Still have to give great credit to the Tampa FO. They deal with a limited budget, a crappy stadium, and an apathetic fanbase and continue to field a very competitive team year after year. Imagine what they could do with the resources available to the Yankees or the Red Sox. In fact, I don't understand why teams like that continue to screw around and don't just offer to double or triple the salary of every key member of the Tampa FO and scouting department and get rid of the guys that can barely compete with Tampa despite a massive financial advantage.

No doubt the best front office in baseball.

[AFBlue]

Shields may be the Royals number one, but alot of average pitchers in this league would be the Royals number one. Shields is a number 2 at best and Wade Davis is an unknown commodity as a starter. You don't trade Wil Myers for a number 2-3 starter in this league. The Royals were bad across the board last season and they could easily use Myers in RF over that piece of crap Jeff Francouer. The fact is, the Royals GM was desperate and he made a poor move just to try to win sooner. However, if the Royals offense doesn't improve, this trade won't be enough to get them to the playoffs and Shields will be gone after that. Really a poor move for the amount he gave up just to get Shields and Davis. Awful trade. The GM should have been fired after last season.

Shields is a #1 on a majority of staffs in the majors. Myers may be an upgrade over Francour as early as next year, but it's not a given. Shields is a proven commodity with steady success against AL East competition. I agree it was an uneven trade, but what was the next best option...Sanchez at $80M? Moore knew he had to make up ground to start contending and he felt like more potential O with the same staff wasn't gonna get it done. Guess we'll see if it was ultimately worth the cost.

[AFBlue]

If Shields had four or more years of club control, the trade would be closer to even. He doesn't. He has two, which means the Royals may just get one season of him before trading him next offseason. Even if he stays both, taking a true #2 and turning him into an ace is no guarantee of contention, or even above-.500 relevance. And you don't trade prospects like Myers for non-guarantees, or potentially just a season or two of Shields.

Plenty of evidence that prospects like Myers never hit at the big league level. And Shields is a true #1, even if only cost-controlled for two more years.

[JMarkJohns]

Shields is a true #2 but can pass for a #1 in stretches.

[AFBlue]

Are any of these prospects ready to contribute in 2013 for Tampa? If so, then look out. If Longoria can get consistent help, Tampa is going to be scary good. They won't miss Shields, they have that other young arm (Cobb?) who is ready to replace him. Tampa knows how to handle pitching. The O is what they need to work on. If Longoria can stay healthy and have help, the Tigers have serious competition for thr AL race.

They'll miss Shields, but they have enough depth to fill out the back end of the rotation. Cobb and Niemann are the natural choices, but they also have a kid named Chris Archer that they got in the Garza deal, Odorozzi, Montgomery, and Torres (lefty from Kazmir deal). To really make up for the loss of Shields though, they'll need Matt Moore to step up. If he can be solid as the #2/3 with Hellickson, they'll be alright.

Even if Myers pans out though, the Rays are still lacking offense since they lost Upton. They're probably one more power hitter away from true contention.

[AFBlue]

Shields is a true #2 but can pass for a #1 in stretches.

Stretches like for the entirety of 2011 when he was third in Cy Young voting? Dude is an absolute workhorse...30+ starts, 200+ innings, top-5 in strikeouts the last two years. What more do you want from a #1? He doesn't have a 95mph fastball so people think he's not an ace, but he's got a filthy changeup that's a true out pitch.

[JMarkJohns]

2011 was a flukish year. You can't count an anomalies as the norm. He'll be strong, but I doubt ever that strong again.

[AFBlue]

2011 was a flukish year. You can't count an anomalies as the norm. He'll be strong, but I doubt ever that strong again.

His advanced statistics (FIP, xFIP) were basically the same from 2011 to 2012. He suffered a two point jump in HR/Flyball ratio, suggesting he got hit harder, but his groundball and strikeout rates were actually better in 2012. Too much is placed on W/L and ERA.

[JamStone]

I consider Shields a legit ace. He may be a second tier ace below the very best starters in baseball, but he's still an ace especially how he's performed the last two seasons. Every year, give you 200+ innings, every start 6-7 innings while giving the team a good chance to win. Great K/BB ratio. Bulldog on the mound. And the last two seasons, his performance/stats have matched his durability/endurance. There are guys like Verlander, Felix, Kershaw, Price, Weaver that are clearly better. But Shields is up there in the second tier of aces that pretty much any team would be happy to have as the ace of a staff, let alone a #2.

[JMarkJohns]

So, this is why Rays bent over the Royals, despite both teams getting an ideal fill for greatest need:

Reading an older SI article where a reporter talks to various baseball execs and scouts and pieces together possible deals. One such deal has the Royals receiving Price from the Rays for three prospects that don't include Myers or Odorizzi. So, the Rays traded a lesser pitcher and got back two significantly better prospects than a discussed and even proposed trade twixt same teams.

Shields is a great get, but damn that was a steep price.

[Pelicans78]

The price was too steep especially with Shields having only two years left on his contract. Also, they're really not that close to contending and they're still stuck with that piece of crap at RF.

[JamStone]

So, this is why Rays bent over the Royals, despite both teams getting an ideal fill for greatest need:

Reading an older SI article where a reporter talks to various baseball execs and scouts and pieces together possible deals. One such deal has the Royals receiving Price from the Rays for three prospects that don't include Myers or Odorizzi. So, the Rays traded a lesser pitcher and got back two significantly better prospects than a discussed and even proposed trade twixt same teams.

Shields is a great get, but damn that was a steep price.

I didn't read the article but I'd guess that's just execs and scouts throwing out ideas and not necessarily suggesting what was being talked about.

At any rate, the Royals had a lot of highly regarded prospects. In fact, I believe Bubba Starling was rated higher than Wil Myers going into 2012 by some scouts. And the SI article I did see suggested that along with a couple prospects, the Royals would have likely also included either Eric Hosmer or Mike Moustakas or both. Hosmer struggled his second season and Moustakas may not be as good as projected, but they both proved they belong in the majors and both are still very young. A Price trade may have netted the Rays an even better package even without Myers or Ordorizzi. But again, I'm not sure what SI article you're talking about.

As for Shields v. Price, Price is better. He's also younger. He's also got the 98 MPH fastball. But Shields is no booby prize. And it's arguable that Shields had been the better pitcher the last two years despite Price's CY season this past year. At the least, he's been pretty comparable.

Combined last two seasons (2011 and 2012):

Price:
65 GS, 435.1 IP (6.7 innings per start), 32-18 record
3.04 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 423/122 K/BB (3.47 K:BB)

Shields:
66 GS, 477 IP (7.2 innings per start), 31-22 record
3.15 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 448/123 K/BB (3.64 K:BB)

I think the perception that Price is a much better pitcher stems from his 98 MPH fastball. Shields may only throw 91-93 with his fastball, but he still gets swings and misses. He's more of a workhorse. And I remember him having a lot of tough losses in 2011 because the Rays weren't scoring.