Player Pairs Analysis - Dec. 16, 2012

[timvp]

These Player Pairs statistics take a look at how the Spurs perform when various possible tandems are on the court at the same time. The numbers in the cells correspond to the tandem comprised of the name in the column and the name in the row. For example, as you can see below, the Spurs outscore their opponents by 12.07 points per 100 possessions when Duncan is on the court with Parker.

The cells are color coded based on the following rules:

Light Green - The player in the column improved the impact of the player in the row.
Dark Green - The player in the column improved the impact of the player in the row by a significant* amount.
Light Red - The player in the column worsened the impact of the player in the row.
Dark Red - The player in the column worsened the impact of the player in the row by a significant* amount.
Light Blue - The player's impact when he's on the court under any circumstance.
Dark Blue - The tandem hasn't yet accumulated enough minutes together.
* - 25% in the first chart, 2.5% in the two subsequent charts

http://www.spurstalk.com/dec16pp1.png

http://www.spurstalk.com/dec16pp2.png

http://www.spurstalk.com/dec16pp3.png


-Box score statistics tell us Manu Ginobili is having his worst season since his rookie year. Our eyes tell us that he’s slowing down. However, despite any perceived flaws, Ginobili continues to be an amazingly positive impact on the team. It’s mindboggling, really. Not only do the Spurs score more points when he’s on the court (111.54) than anyone else, Ginobili also boasts the best defensive number (97.66). Perhaps even more impressive (if that’s even possible) is that he significantly improves everyone on the team outside of Neal. Overall, these are hugely encouraging numbers because there’s no doubt that Ginobili has room to improve individually. This also goes to show how much of a travesty it would be if the Argentine Hall of Famer decides to retire at the end of the season. Ginobili shows no signs of slowing down when it comes to his uncanny ability to make his teammates better … and isn't that what he's all about?

-Tim Duncan’s numbers look very good across the board. His capability of carrying the offense when he’s in the game is apparent. Defensively, he’s solid and the impending return of Leonard and Jackson will help, as will playing more minutes with Splitter.

-Tony Parker and Duncan’s numbers are similar, with Parker being just slightly better. Offensively, the only players he brings down so far are two players (Leonard and De Colo) who he hasn’t played with that much to date. On D, the only worrisome pairing is Parker with Neal.

-Speaking of Gary Neal, his numbers adamantly state that he’s not someone who should become a full-time starter. It’s clear that he drags down Duncan, Parker, Ginobili and Green, which tells me that he definitely needs to return to the bench ASAP. There are problems on both offense and defense. Defensively, we know he’s bad guarding point guard but these numbers also suggest that he’s also bad at defending starting shooting guards since he’s blatantly bad next to Parker and Duncan. Offensively, the biggest worry is that he isn’t meshing well with Ginobili. (When watching games, I’ve subjectively noticed that as well.) If Neal can’t start and also inhibits Ginobili’s offensive mastery, how exactly can he best be utilized going forward? I’m not sure.

-If Neal isn’t the answer at backup point guard due to not being compatible with Ginobili, that opens the door for Patrick Mills and Nando De Colo. Looking at these numbers, Mills looks like the anti-Neal because he does REALLY well next to Ginobili. Defensively, Mills is an unmitigated disaster … unless he’s next to Ginobili, that is. Offensively, Mills and Ginobili have produced an excitingly high number (119.43). De Colo is very interesting because he’s already a healthy difference maker. On offense, the only guard with a better number is Ginobili -- and it’s notable that he shines even better when not paired with another point guard. Defensively, De Colo is subpar but not nearly as bad as Mills.

-Danny Green is a mixed bag. On offense, it’s obvious that he’s best when paired with good passers. He shines with Parker, Ginobili and De Colo. But if you put him with non-passers such as Mills and Bonner, it can get ugly. Defensively, Green has massively underwhelmed thus far according to these stats. There aren’t any huge individual concerns but it’s unacceptable that he drags down pretty much everyone who matters. Green needs to get back to becoming an asset on defense or else Pop could be tempted to juggle his starting lineup.

-There’s probably not much we can take from Leonard or Jackson due to their early injuries. The offense was sputtering early in the season so that’s mostly why they have a lot of red in the offensive chart. However, we’ll have to keep an eye on whether the offense is able to keep humming once the small forwards return. On defense, they help out Duncan and Ginobili, which makes sense because they relieve Duncan from having to crash the boards as hard and keep Ginobili away from the bigger small forward in the league.

-Tiago Splitter’s numbers suggest quite a few conclusions: 1) By looking at what he did next to Leonard and Jackson, we can safely say Splitter wasn’t good early in the season but has been great lately 2) The Splitter and Diaw pairing off the bench was an utter failure 3) It looks like he should fit right into the starting lineup without a problem 4) Duncan and Splitter have learned out to play with each other on both ends of the court.

-Boris Diaw, based on these numbers at least, doesn’t look like a good candidate to come off the bench. The problem is that he also doesn’t look like an especially good candidate to start either. His defense appears to have started off well (based on his pairing with Leonard) but has fallen off a cliff. He’s strikingly bad in some of those tandems. Offensively, he doesn’t really hurt the Big Three … but also doesn’t especially help either. Ugh.

-The point differential number for DeJuan Blair is actually pretty darn good. The problem is that he’s very reliant on Ginobili in order to be halfway decent. It’s clear that he’s been a flop as a starter. Though his defense isn’t bad as a starter, he kills the team’s offense. To carve out a role for Blair, it’s going to have to be as a bench bigman who plays only if Ginobili is also on the court.

-Matt Bonner is a king, per usual. In the regular season, there’s no denying that he’s a fantastic weapon that can help your team win a lot of games. There’s simply no denying that. However, since there’s also no denying that he’s a lock to crumble once the calendar arrives at April, I agree with Pop’s coaching decision to limit Bonner’s minutes so far this season. In my opinion, the best way to use Bonner is as a shot of adrenaline whenever things begin to stagnate. Otherwise, the Spurs need to spend time figuring out how to win without Bonner making life easier for everyone.

-Overall, I'm happy with what I see. The beasting by TD and TP is helping the team. Ginobili is Ginobili when it comes to making people better. There's nothing to suggest Splitter won't work in the starting lineup. Leonard was doing well before he was sidelined. The role players all have some weaknesses but no one appears to be an absolute lost cause at this point. By constantly juggling lineups, Pop is starting to build up some compelling data that should come in handy as the season progresses. Good times :tu

[lmbebo]

good read.

[Boomersgold]

I've been saying that Mills + Ginobili = Best combination off the bench and now there are stats to prove this!

Btw, timvp, where'd you get these stats from?

[freetiago]

Data supports pop starting splitter and ginobili
like he said in the WCF
you have to play your best players

just needs to do some early subs so they can get some run with the bench also and everything is fine
he needs to increase the minutes of his players
guys around the league are getting 40 minutes
stephen jackson was playing 36-40 minutes about 2 years ago
leonard/green/splitter should all be at 30 minimum with leonard probably getting his chance at leading the bench for some stretches

[ElNono]

Thoughtful, very well written piece. thanks.

[Richie]

How do these pairs compare when being compared to the team average? i.e Gibobili might make someone better but if they are still below the team average it's still not a good pairing. Also, Green might make someone worse, but again if they are still above average then it is acceptable.

[timvp]

How do these pairs compare when being compared to the team average? i.e Gibobili might make someone better but if they are still below the team average it's still not a good pairing. Also, Green might make someone worse, but again if they are still above average then it is acceptable.

The team averages are:

Point differential per 100 possessions: 7.92
Points scored per 100 possessions: 109.26
Points allowed per 100 possessions: 101.34

[therealtruth]

Data supports pop starting splitter and ginobili
like he said in the WCF
you have to play your best players

just needs to do some early subs so they can get some run with the bench also and everything is fine
he needs to increase the minutes of his players
guys around the league are getting 40 minutes
stephen jackson was playing 36-40 minutes about 2 years ago
leonard/green/splitter should all be at 30 minimum with leonard probably getting his chance at leading the bench for some stretches

I think that's the move that makes the most sense. There's no point in Pop waiting till a crucial playoff game and then try juggling lineups like his horrible rotations in game 5. Diaw also had arguably the best season of his career when he replaced Stoudemire at center in '06. He could provide a similar role of the bench as a backup center.

[CubanMustGo]

timvp filling the Hollinger void. well done!

[DPG21920]

Biggest surprise to me is Neal. Eyeball test says he's been pretty useful including improved ability to score (more in the paint, floaters...) with improved defense.

I also see no reason (outside of Boris not wanting to do well) that Boris could not be a capable big man off the bench. The main argument I can see is that when he starts he fits well next to Tim but also has Tim/TP out there to carry the offense. If you put him on the bench players, it's guys who are more limited offensively and for a guy like Boris that doesn't want to step up his offense, that could lead to some depressed numbers with Boris off the bench.

[BillMc]

Good read.

I think your point about Bonner is well-made. He is still useful, but the team needs to wean themselves off him, so they don't need to play without him during his annual playoff collapse.

You mention Blair has to play with Manu. What do you think of the Blair with Jackson results? Is this just a small sample, or is there any meat here?

[freetiago]

Blair can only play well when he plays with a player who gets trapped on P&Rs leaving him open and the guy has to throw a pass between someones legs to get the ball to him
so obviously gary neal is the best fit for blair

[Bruno]

Nice. :tu
These are great stats.

Saying that, I pretty much disagree with the whole analysis.
A vital aspect that is totally forgiven is the quality of the opponents when the player is on the court. Being able to outscore a crappy bench unit isn't at all like being able to outscore a starting unit.

The whole "Ginobili is awesome and shouldn't retire" is maybe to most way off part of the analysis. Ginobili is playing a lot of his minutes against bench players with a team that is deep. It tremendously inflate his on/off stats (it's the Bonner effect). Players like Parker and Duncan are logically doing better with Manu than without him because Manu is still an upgrade over Green and Neal. Truth is Manu is having by far his worst season since his rookie year. No advance stats can change that.

[BillMc]

Nice. :tu
These are great stats.

Saying that, I pretty much disagree with the whole analysis.
A vital aspect that is totally forgiven is the quality of the opponents when the player is on the court. Being able to outscore a crappy bench unit isn't at all like being able to outscore a starting unit.

The whole "Ginobili is awesome and shouldn't retire" is maybe to most way off part of the analysis. Ginobili is playing a lot of his minutes against bench players with a team that is deep. It tremendously inflate his on/off stats (it's the Bonner effect). Players like Parker and Duncan are logically doing better with Manu than without him because Manu is still an upgrade over Green and Neal. Truth is Manu is having by far his worst season since his rookie year. No advance stats can change that.

Bruno you make a really good point, but by the same thinking if Manu is still better than Green or Neal (who aren't bad players), then he can still be a major benefit to this team, even if he's not what he was.

[Bruno]

Bruno you make a really good point, but by the same thinking if Manu is still better than Green or Neal (who aren't bad players), then he can still be a major benefit to this team, even if he's not what he was.

Agree, Manu is still a good player, significantly better than Green and Neal. My point was that he is nowhere near as good as these stats show.

It's the same thing than last year, Manu regular season awesome PER was fool's gold because he putted this stats mostly against bench players.

[Uriel]

It makes sense that Ginobili's numbers are so high. He plays very limited minutes, almost all of which are spent against the opposing team's bench. That's a recipe for inflation.

Edit: Bruno beat me to it. :lol

[Mugen]

Kawhi is going to have to pick up his outside shooting if Tiago is going to be a permanent starter. But that's a pretty damn good defensive unit right there.

[letmk]

Not trying to get into argument about specific analysis in this post. However, I think advanced stats are only useful for players with similar "traditional" stats, like points, rbs, assists, FG%, etc. And for role players, it can only be comparisons among similar types, like defense specialist, 3-pointer specialist, rebounding blue collar, etc. To see something more subtle.

For example, assuming other stats are similar, it's hard to believe a 18 ppg/45% player is better than a 25ppp/44% player no matter what advanced stats might say. On the other hand, a 20ppg/48% player should be strongly presumed better than a 22ppg/42% player assuming others being equal. It has to be something much more tangible than some advanced stats to say otherwise.

In short, traditional stats lay out the foundation for evaluating players, advanced stats give us some deeper analysis on top of that foundation.

[ElNono]

Some people are misreading the stats... if Gino is doing great with Tim/Tony/Blair, then that's when both of them are on the floor... at that point, if the opposition are starters or bench, the alleged 'advantage' applies equally to both.

Furthermore, with the exception of Mills, his production with other bench players is actually fairly pedestrian. If he would be 'propping his numbers' by playing against inferior competition, then you would see all other bench players gaining equally from such event, but that's not reflected there.

Now you could argue that the sample size is smaller when he plays with the team starters vs the team bench, and that's a valid concern.

[Brunodf]

Nice. :tu
These are great stats.

Saying that, I pretty much disagree with the whole analysis.
A vital aspect that is totally forgiven is the quality of the opponents when the player is on the court. Being able to outscore a crappy bench unit isn't at all like being able to outscore a starting unit.



Good point. But a vital aspect that is totally forgiven is the quality of the teammates when the player is on the court. Being able to outscore the opposite team playing along with elite players isn't at all like being able to outscore the opposite team playing along with crappy players.

[Blake]

San Antonio leads the NBA with 25.3 assists per game, its highest total since averaging 24.9 assists in 1995.

http://sports.yahoo.com/news/parker-leads-spurs-past-celtics-041514473--nba.html

Fwiw

[timvp]

A vital aspect that is totally forgiven is the quality of the opponents when the player is on the court. Being able to outscore a crappy bench unit isn't at all like being able to outscore a starting unit.I agree that the fact that Manu comes off the bench and plays against bench players should be part of the analysis. It's definitely a factor that should be something that is automatically considered. Thus, while I think Ginobili's impact has been a lot more positive than what the naked eye can see, I wouldn't go as far as to say these stats prove that Manu is a better player than Duncan or Parker this season. Making that logical jump is ignoring multiple factors, with the largest of them being Manu's competition level.

That said, Manu's numbers are undeniably really, really good. No matter how you frame 'em, they sparkle. Again, it doesn't make him the best player on the team or anything like that, but he's fulfilling his duties very well.

Plus, there are other advanced stats that factor in the competition and who Ginobili is playing with -- most notably APM and RAPM -- and they too agree that he is having a very good season.


The whole "Ginobili is awesome and shouldn't retire" is maybe to most way off part of the analysis.Let's pretend that Manu's numbers are 100% due to him coming off the bench. Even given that untruth, wouldn't you agree that he's performing his role so well that it would be a shame if he retired? I mean, even with the most condescending eye, you at least have to admit he's doing what his role requires him to do. And last I checked, players who are doing what they are supposed to do at a high level aren't players you hope will hang up the sneakers.


Ginobili is playing a lot of his minutes against bench players with a team that is deep. It tremendously inflate his on/off stats (it's the Bonner effect).That "Bonner effect" you insinuate doesn't exist. Bonner's plus/minus, on-off and APM stats were all fantastic in 2009 when he started 67 games. The only "Bonner effect" is that he's damn useful in the regular season .... period. Whether he starts, comes off the bench or is only used in spot situations, his advanced stats all point to that conclusion.

[timvp]

It's the same thing than last year, Manu regular season awesome PER was fool's gold because he putted this stats mostly against bench players.

Last year was the first time EVER that Manu's advanced stats sucked in the playoffs. It's way too premature to start using the Bonner rules with him. Maybe Manu is only a regular season wonder at this point in his career. Maybe the bench collapsed around Manu so dramatically that even he couldn't stop the destruction. While the former is possible, my money is on the latter. If healthy and as long as the rest of the bench doesn't suck horribly like they did last year in the playoffs (outside of possibly Jack), I highly doubt we see a repeat of the suckage.

Ginobili in as recently as 2011 had the best on-off numbers on the team in both the regular season and the playoffs. To say he's only a regular season specialist now is unfair ... or at the very least speculation.

[timvp]

Now you could argue that the sample size is smaller when he plays with the team starters vs the team bench, and that's a valid concern.

For reference, 260 out of the 390 minutes Ginobili has played this season have been next to Parker. How often does Pop play both Parker and Ginobili at the same time versus the other team's bench? Not that often, tbh.

I think it's beyond fair to say that at least 50% of Ginobili's minutes comes against quality competition. And it's probably closer to 60%, IMO.

[ElNono]

For reference, 260 out of the 390 minutes Ginobili has played this season have been next to Parker. How often does Pop play both Parker and Ginobili at the same time versus the other team's bench? Not that often, tbh.

I think it's beyond fair to say that at least 50% of Ginobili's minutes comes against quality competition. And it's probably closer to 60%, IMO.

I was looking for that, but couldn't find it. Thanks.

Also looking at gameflows (http://popcornmachine.net/), Manu actually closed 18 out of 22 games with Tim and Tony (taking out the first two of the season and Boston, where he wasn't available).

[freetiago]

Timvp with the COM bads par the per
ginobili cant dominate bench units consistently
his good games are still masked with the terrible head scratching turnovers
cant get to the rim anymore and his shot selection is becoming worse
hes still a good player and he can still play well but only every few games
last years playoffs were the sign that hes falling off
and the injuries are always a concern with ginobili like they are now
he gets hurt/misses significant time/plays limited minutes to get rhythm/reinjures himself/repeat

Pop needs to start developing a second playmaker for the bench and just hope ginobili can deliver the games 1/2/5 type performances when they matter

hes 35 turning 36 i dont know why people think he can continue to dominate like past seasons
tim duncan is an outlier

[ElNono]

Ehhh... Manu has had a fairly poor season so far *individually*. *His* numbers are down across the board, and time will tell if it's a sudden decline or not (he played great in the Olympics, and that was not even 6 months ago).

But as I also pointed out in the other thread, he's still an useful player. He still commands a certain degree of attention and still can create shots for *other* players.

No CoM stuff there.

His usage hasn't really changed that much. Pop still plays him basically in his same role: spark off the bench, then closing games with Tony and Tim.

[Bruno]

Plus, there are other advanced stats that factor in the competition and who Ginobili is playing with -- most notably APM and RAPM -- and they too agree that he is having a very good season.

Any stat based on +/- is basically worthless given how Pop manage his lineups. You had to realize that Pop main starting lineup (Parker/Neal/Green/Blair/Duncan) has been outscored by 6.5 points per 100 possession this year.

Ginobili on the other hand is either playing with a good Spurs bench against, most of the time, a weak bench, or with Spurs best unit (alongside Parker, Duncan and players that match up well and/or are hot).



Let's pretend that Manu's numbers are 100% due to him coming off the bench. Even given that untruth, wouldn't you agree that he's performing his role so well that it would be a shame if he retired?

I disagree that he's performing his role so well. He has been a good player this year but nothing special. It wouldn't be a shame if he retire because there are a lot of player who can play as well as the 2012-2013 version of Ginobili.

[freetiago]

Thats the one thing i dont understand
I watched every spur game during the olympics and ginobili was a top 3 player
Ginobili Gasol and Durant were the 3 best players in the olympics and manu put up some crazy efficient numbers and without him argentina was garbage no offense elnono
undersized old unathletic with no depth
nothing really explains this drop off but sometimes it just happens

[ElNono]

Thats the one thing i dont understand
I watched every spur game during the olympics and ginobili was a top 3 player
Ginobili Gasol and Durant were the 3 best players in the olympics and manu put up some crazy efficient numbers and without him argentina was garbage no offense elnono
undersized old unathletic with no depth
nothing really explains this drop off but sometimes it just happens

No offense taken, and that's the mystery. Time will tell what's the story.

[Bruno]

Ginobili in as recently as 2011 had the best on-off numbers on the team in both the regular season and the playoffs. To say he's only a regular season specialist now is unfair ... or at the very least speculation.

Manu was awesome in 2010-2011.

In 2011-2012, you had to consider that his role changed a lot. His mpg dropped and he played, proportionally, way more with the bench. That's why I said his PER was fool's gold that year. It was inflated by playing a lot against bench scrubs.

[Boomersgold]

Surprisingly, De Colo has a negative point differential when playing with Parker or Diaw, his french national team teammates.

[Paranoid Pop]

Green sucks, that why Manu is such a big upgrade, starters played a lot with Boris, Green and Blair... Blair is comandable for sucking badly enough to get benched early in the season, that was not a given at all with Pop...

I liked the idea of a Neal De Colo backup backcourt with Splitter being the focus and it looks like it's money. Problem Tiago may start from now on but I thnik they will bring in another big so we'll see if this can turn out to be a productive core for the bench.

Green as expected bring the defense down, hustling and looking active don't mean your defense is any good. He needs to go, Manu should start, De Colo Neal as back up backcourt. Of course De Colo Green could work as well, especially if Green is defending the backup PG and De Colo the SG.

[Paranoid Pop]

Also it's not surprise that Boris is only good on D with Leonard, he needs to be sandwiched between Tim and KY for his rebounding not to be a problem.

[Drz]

However, since there’s also no denying that he’s a lock to crumble once the calendar arrives at April
Oh, it's a lock? Guess I can't argue that then.

Pretty amazing that the guy who's consistently 4th on the team behind Duncan-Parker-Ginobili, year after year, will fall to a spot that makes him not worth playing in the playoffs. But hey, if it's a lock, it's a lock. Can't deny it.

[Frenchie]

Surprisingly, De Colo has a negative point differential when playing with Parker or Diaw, his french national team teammates.
TP and de Colo are not pairing well neither in the FNT. They have played better together recently but they're not pairing with ease. That's why Nando is coming off the bench with the FNT whereas Nicolas Batum who is a SF is starting at SG with Mickaël Gelabale at the SF position.

Nando coming off the bench makes him playing less with Boris Diaw who is the starting PF. Nando is one of our most talented players but has always suffered to find his place in the FNT. Being the 6th man seems to be the place where he can produce the most.

[spurraider21]

What worries me about the Duncan-Splitter combination is that we don't have a rim protector on our bench

[wildbill2u]

"It wouldn't be a shame if he retire because there are a lot of player who can play as well as the 2012-2013 version of Ginobili."

Maybe so, Bruno, but they don't play for the Spurs now-- nor are we likely to get them by trade or free agency.

[wildbill2u]

Somebody please tell me why TimVP is always finding an excuse for Jackson. His chart is bleeding red all over the place. He makes everyone but Blair worse, but is the only player that makes Blair look like an All-star. BLAIR!

I don't care if he only played 10 games, the stats are what they are and the ball don't lie. You can't just say, "Well, he'd be better if he had more games" What if he won't be better or, God help us, got worse?

His shooting percentage to date on FG is 37% and 3 pt is 28%. And his stats have been remarkably stable at that level for the past FOUR years. He was never a great % shooter for his career, but those are stats that tell me he shouldn't be shooting the ball ever. I don't want to hear about him making love to pressure.

We got a guy with ice in his veins (Neal) who's shooting 13 pts higher on 3 pt shots over the past three years and he isn't afraid to take the shot. And Manu still ain't bad at closing out games with a tough shot either. I'd trust either of them with the last shot before Jackson, and I bet Pop will too.

This love affair with Jackson has to end. If you want to say he's good to send in as the designated fouler and general bully boy, maybe. But at some point you have to say that he's the guy whose game (such as it was) has fallen off the cliff.

[racm]

Somebody please tell me why TimVP is always finding an excuse for Jackson. His chart is bleeding red all over the place. He makes everyone but Blair worse, but is the only player that makes Blair look like an All-star. BLAIR!

I don't care if he only played 10 games, the stats are what they are and the ball don't lie. You can't just say, "Well, he'd be better if he had more games" What if he won't be better or, God help us, got worse?

His shooting percentage to date on FG is 37% and 3 pt is 28%. And his stats have been remarkably stable at that level for the past FOUR years. He was never a great % shooter for his career, but those are stats that tell me he shouldn't be shooting the ball ever. I don't want to hear about him making love to pressure.

We got a guy with ice in his veins (Neal) who's shooting 13 pts higher on 3 pt shots over the past three years and he isn't afraid to take the shot. And Manu still ain't bad at closing out games with a tough shot either. I'd trust either of them with the last shot before Jackson, and I bet Pop will too.

This love affair with Jackson has to end. If you want to say he's good to send in as the designated fouler and general bully boy, maybe. But at some point you have to say that he's the guy whose game (such as it was) has fallen off the cliff.

Jackson was never a guy whose impact was measurable by box score statistics. As much as I'm one of the bigger stat heads, box score-based basic and advanced statistics have never accurately measured measures like team defense, matchups, and potential scenarios like "floor spacing". Bonner is an elite floor spacer even without an FGA because he's a "threat" to shoot a 3.

[Paranoid Pop]

Sjax can defend most PFs better than anyone on the roster.

[Leetonidas]

I'm starting to become worried about Diaw and his place on the team. Unless he's starting at SF on occasion he has been pretty much invisible and considering how much talent we all know he has that in unacceptable.

[DAF86]

Bruno with the passive/agressive not so subtle "I will never get over the fact that people love Manu more than Tony" butthurt bads per par.

Manu will always be better than what his stats indicate 'cause he will do things like taking a charge, disrupting the opposition offense without getting a steal, making a hockey pass, improving the ball movement with his superior court vision, not dribling the ball for 18 seconds or any other thing that doesn't show on the stat sheet but helps teams win games.

Yeah, he may not be the player he was once but he's still better than any other option the Spurs have to replace him, so yes, him retiring would be a damn shame.

Regarding the OP, to me it's clear that if Neal shouldn't start and he doesn't do well alongside Manu the answer is to start Manu. Is not always bad to start your best players, imho.

That way we kill two birds with one stone: we improve the team and we kill this "Manu's numbers are good 'cause he plays against benches" crap. Win/win, tbh.

[polandprzem]

I never look at those kind of stats as good example what's going on.

Even when somebody like Gino is good in limited minutes, he cannot be consider as a fulltime player.
In the playoffs the minutes would have to increase for him and then the colapse can happen as he was not used to big minutes in the reg season.

Also this is a 5men game and not 2 men game. Also the stats does not include opponents and matchups, circumstances like garbage time etc.

[Bruno]

Bruno with the passive/agressive not so subtle "I will never get over the fact that people love Manu more than Tony" butthurt bads per par.

Yeah, whatever... :rolleyes

[Brunodf]

What worries me about the Duncan-Splitter combination is that we don't have a rim protector on our bench

We don't need to, Splitter just have to play 30min/game, so he can start and play his usual 18min/game with the second unit

[Bruno]

"It wouldn't be a shame if he retire because there are a lot of player who can play as well as the 2012-2013 version of Ginobili."

Maybe so, Bruno, but they don't play for the Spurs now-- nor are we likely to get them by trade or free agency.

Well, Spurs will have cap space next summer to sign whoever they want. After that, it will be the issue on whether or not this player is interested in joining Spurs. And these players will have to be as good as a hypothetical 2013-2014 version of Ginobili...

[timvp]

Timvp with the COM bads par the per ElNono take notice.


ginobili cant dominate bench units consistentlyThe Spurs bench is pretty consistent in dominating the opposing bench and Ginobili is the leader of the Spurs bench. Obviously he's not individually as great this year but the results of the domination can't really be questioned, tbh.


hes 35 turning 36 i dont know why people think he can continue to dominate like past seasons
tim duncan is an outlierIt'd be great if he dominates individually at some point. Tbh, the Spurs probably need that to have a chance at a championship. But Ginobili still holds a lot of value even if he "only" quarterbacks the bench into being dominant on most nights.

Non-CoM Spurs fans love to focus on Ginobili's shortcomings scoring-wise yet they hate to admit that his passing is amazingly good. His passing right now is probably as good or better than at any point in his career. He's the best passing shooting guard in the NBA by a large margin and the value that brings to the court is able to camouflage a lot of his current shortcomings.

[Paranoid Pop]

ElNono (http://www.spurstalk.com/forums/member.php?u=8054) take notice.

The Spurs bench is pretty consistent in dominating the opposing bench and Ginobili is the leader of the Spurs bench. Obviously he's not individually as great this year but the results of the domination can't really be questioned, tbh.

It'd be great if he dominates individually at some point. Tbh, the Spurs probably need that to have a chance at a championship. But Ginobili still holds a lot of value even if he "only" quarterbacks the bench into being dominant on most nights.

Non-CoM Spurs fans love to focus on Ginobili's shortcomings scoring-wise yet they hate to admit that his passing is amazingly good. His passing right now is probably as good or better than at any point in his career. He's the best passing shooting guard in the NBA by a large margin and the value that brings to the court is able to camouflage a lot of his current shortcomings.

If De Colo is a shooting guard like I think he is then Manu is not a much better passer tbh, he even finds Splitter much easier than Manu. If anuything the most impressive thing about Manu has been his defense this year, because while his passing can be beautiful he turns it over so much. But he's a much better defender than Green for sure.

[timvp]

Any stat based on +/- is basically worthless given how Pop manage his lineups.It's worthless if you don't know how to put it in perspective. Again, no one should conclude Manu is the best player on the team since he definitely has some built-in advantages.

As an example, when TP came off the bench for a majority of the 2010 playoffs, he had the best +/- stats on the team even though he was obviously not 100%. So I'm not saying that Ginobili is the only player that can do what he does, but it's not like the Spurs can plug anyone into his spot and get similar production. A player like Neal is pretty darn good and should get a decently big contract this summer yet he can't replicate what Manu does.


You had to realize that Pop main starting lineup (Parker/Neal/Green/Blair/Duncan) has been outscored by 6.5 points per 100 possession this year.That should be realized by anyone trying to say Manu is the best player on the team or something like that. But, tbh, I don't see that.


Ginobili on the other hand is either playing with a good Spurs bench against, most of the time, a weak bench, or with Spurs best unit (alongside Parker, Duncan and players that match up well and/or are hot).Fair. As I've said the whole time, he receives a bump from his circumstances.

But if you take him completely out of the equation, it's not like the Spurs are able to make-up for his loss. They outscore opponents by 13.88 points per 100 possessions when he's on the court. When Ginobili is on the bench, the Spurs outscore opponents by 3.14 points per 100 possessions. So yeah, Ginobili is doing something right. We can blame circumstances for some of the inflation of his numbers but it just can't be all a matter of circumstances.


I disagree that he's performing his role so well. He has been a good player this year but nothing special. It wouldn't be a shame if he retire because there are a lot of player who can play as well as the 2012-2013 version of Ginobili.Like who? Name some candidates who: A) are attainable B) would be willing to come off the bench C) have shown an ability to make teammates better


Ginobili has a unique skillset that has been proven to be very valuable to the Spurs. I don't know anyone who fits that criteria who can come in and just pick up where Ginobili has left off.

[Paranoid Pop]

A player like Neal is pretty darn good and should get a decently big contract this summer yet he can't replicate what Manu does.

Neal alone probably not, a combo of Neal and De Colo on the other hand....

[Mel_13]

It'd be great if he dominates individually at some point. Tbh, the Spurs probably need that to have a chance at a championship. But Ginobili still holds a lot of value even if he "only" quarterbacks the bench into being dominant on most nights.

Non-CoM Spurs fans love to focus on Ginobili's shortcomings scoring-wise yet they hate to admit that his passing is amazingly good. His passing right now is probably as good or better than at any point in his career. He's the best passing shooting guard in the NBA by a large margin and the value that brings to the court is able to camouflage a lot of his current shortcomings.

I'm sure that Pop agrees with this assessment. Going forward, keeping Manu for two more years at something slightly north of the MLE is a no-brainer. Even if he's only a somewhat better version of 05-07 Brent Barry.

Anyway, I appreciate the effort that goes into putting these stats together. I hope that you're planning on periodic updates.

[timvp]

Somebody please tell me why TimVP is always finding an excuse for Jackson. His chart is bleeding red all over the place. He makes everyone but Blair worse, but is the only player that makes Blair look like an All-star. BLAIR!

I don't care if he only played 10 games, the stats are what they are and the ball don't lie. You can't just say, "Well, he'd be better if he had more games" What if he won't be better or, God help us, got worse?

His shooting percentage to date on FG is 37% and 3 pt is 28%. And his stats have been remarkably stable at that level for the past FOUR years. He was never a great % shooter for his career, but those are stats that tell me he shouldn't be shooting the ball ever. I don't want to hear about him making love to pressure.

We got a guy with ice in his veins (Neal) who's shooting 13 pts higher on 3 pt shots over the past three years and he isn't afraid to take the shot. And Manu still ain't bad at closing out games with a tough shot either. I'd trust either of them with the last shot before Jackson, and I bet Pop will too.

This love affair with Jackson has to end. If you want to say he's good to send in as the designated fouler and general bully boy, maybe. But at some point you have to say that he's the guy whose game (such as it was) has fallen off the cliff.

That was a pretty impressive :crymeltdown:cry considering the only thing I said about Jackson was:


There’s probably not much we can take from Leonard or Jackson due to their early injuries. The offense was sputtering early in the season so that’s mostly why they have a lot of red in the offensive chart. However, we’ll have to keep an eye on whether the offense is able to keep humming once the small forwards return.

I offered a valid explanation for the red in their offensive charts and said we should keep an eye on it to make sure that the offense doesn't suffer once they return. I don't see the glorious defense of Jackson that you apparently saw somewhere.

If you want further explanation, you could have just asked, tbh.

Jackson played in the first 11 games of the season. In the first 11 games, when Tony Parker (for example) was on the court, the team scored 106.7 points per 100 possessions. Looking at the charts, you can see that Jackson actually helped Parker offensively during those first 11 games. The cell has since turned red since Parker exploded after Jackson got hurt.

So it's unfair to say that Jackson was the problem early on because basically the entire team started off slowly on the offensive end. But, like I noted, we should keep an eye on it to make sure Jackson (and Leonard, for that matter) doesn't negatively impact the offense when he returns. I don't see a reason why we should definitely think he will or won't ... thus why we need to see.

[ElNono]

ElNono take notice.

Not calling off the raid on your house until I see the next Manu/Tony grades, tbh

[will_spurs]

Bruno (http://www.spurstalk.com/forums/member.php?u=2449) with the passive/agressive not so subtle "I will never get over the fact that people love Manu more than Tony" butthurt bads per par.

And the CoM invoking the predictable "intangibles" line of defense when the stats suck per par.

BTW Manu isn't cheap, he is actually the highest paid Spurs player right now. His $14 million a year salary comes off the books next year, I imagine even the Spurs can find a guy who's on par with the current Manu for that much money, even if guys aren't particularly attracted to San Antonio...

[Obstructed_View]

Oh, it's a lock? Guess I can't argue that then.

Pretty amazing that the guy who's consistently 4th on the team behind Duncan-Parker-Ginobili, year after year, will fall to a spot that makes him not worth playing in the playoffs. But hey, if it's a lock, it's a lock. Can't deny it.

Sorry to expose you, Matty, but if you want respect, posting up to defend yourself isn't the way to do it. How about you show up in a postseason? By the way, keep going aggressively after rebounds, and don't be afraid to go for shot blocks and foul once in a while!

[Mel_13]

And the CoM invoking the predictable "intangibles" line of defense when the stats suck per par.

BTW Manu isn't cheap, he is actually the highest paid Spurs player right now. His $14 million a year salary comes off the books next year, I imagine even the Spurs can find a guy who's on par with the current Manu for that much money, even if guys aren't particularly attracted to San Antonio...

:rolleyes

That's not a useful standard and you know it.

[will_spurs]

That's not a useful standard and you know it.

Hey, you've got the wrong guy. I'm not the one who brought that to the table by saying "he's still better than any other option the Spurs have to replace him" (DF86), "Like who? Name some candidates who: A) are attainable B) would be willing to come off the bench C) have shown an ability to make teammates better" (timvp), "Maybe so, Bruno, but they don't play for the Spurs now-- nor are we likely to get them by trade or free agency." (willdbill2u) and so on.

A $14m expiring contract + what Manu still brings to the table would certainly interest a couple of teams...

This being said, I hope all the players who have been fixtures of this franchise retire as Spurs, and that obviously includes Manu. His backers shouldn't be so fast to throw the "he's better than what the Spurs have or can get" line around, though.

[Mel_13]

Hey, you've got the wrong guy. I'm not the one who brought that to the table by saying "he's still better than any other option the Spurs have to replace him" (DF86), "Like who? Name some candidates who: A) are attainable B) would be willing to come off the bench C) have shown an ability to make teammates better" (timvp), "Maybe so, Bruno, but they don't play for the Spurs now-- nor are we likely to get them by trade or free agency." (willdbill2u) and so on.

A $14m expiring contract + what Manu still brings to the table would certainly interest a couple of teams...

This being said, I hope all the players who have been fixtures of this franchise retire as Spurs, and that obviously includes Manu. His backers shouldn't be so fast to throw the "he's better than what the Spurs have or can get" line around, though.

:tu

The context helps.

[Bruno]

As I've said the whole time, he receives a bump from his circumstances.

As you've said the whole time? Really?
Re-read your paragraph about Manu in your initial post.



But if you take him completely out of the equation, it's not like the Spurs are able to make-up for his loss. They outscore opponents by 13.88 points per 100 possessions when he's on the court. When Ginobili is on the bench, the Spurs outscore opponents by 3.14 points per 100 possessions. So yeah, Ginobili is doing something right. We can blame circumstances for some of the inflation of his numbers but it just can't be all a matter of circumstances.

Spurs not doing well without Manu has a lot to do with them starting a shitty lineup that featured Blair. Garbage time and the Miami game also doesn't help Spurs to look good statistically when Manu isn't on the court.

I'm not saying Manu isn't a good player that help Spurs. However, he hasn't been great that year. It's by far his worst year since his rookie season and it's not a wild interpretation of pair stats that change that. For the first time in years, speaking of "big 3" makes no sense. Spurs have a big 2 of Duncan and Parker. Manu is closer to players like Kawhi and Splitter than he is to the big 2.




Like who? Name some candidates who: A) are attainable B) would be willing to come off the bench C) have shown an ability to make teammates better
Ginobili has a unique skillset that has been proven to be very valuable to the Spurs. I don't know anyone who fits that criteria who can come in and just pick up where Ginobili has left off.

Who says that if Ginobili leaves, Spurs should try to replace him with a similar player? There are more than one recipe to success.
If it was up to me and if Manu retires at the end of the season, I wouldn't sign a new SG. I would go with a combination of Green/Neal/De Colo and spend the money on getting a quality bigman.

[DAF86]

And the CoM invoking the predictable "intangibles" line of defense when the stats suck per par.

BTW Manu isn't cheap, he is actually the highest paid Spurs player right now. His $14 million a year salary comes off the books next year, I imagine even the Spurs can find a guy who's on par with the current Manu for that much money, even if guys aren't particularly attracted to San Antonio...

Whatever Manu is making right now I'm pretty sure is offset for that year in 2005 where he was either reason 1a or 1b for the Spurs winning a championship while getting paid less than Malik Rose, not to mention the benefits that you bring to your club for being arguable the most popular player of said club.

But I would love to hear the guys that would be able to bring what Manu brings for that kind of money (even though the Spurs won't be able to sign any free agent for that kind of money).

[Paranoid Pop]

We'll just sign Spanoulis to replace Manu tbh.

[DPG21920]

Whatever Manu is making right now I'm pretty sure is offset for that year in 2005 where he was either reason 1a or 1b for the Spurs winning a championship while getting paid less than Malik Rose, not to mention the benefits that you bring to your club for being arguable the most popular player of said club.

But I would love to hear the guys that would be able to bring what Manu brings for that kind of money (even though the Spurs won't be able to sign any free agent for that kind of money).

Spurs, if they wanted to, would have the money to sign a guy to a quite large contract.

[DPG21920]

Also, is it just me or does it seem like timvp paid Bruno to disagree/play devil's advocate on basically everything he posts this year :lol?

[will_spurs]

But I would love to hear the guys that would be able to bring what Manu brings for that kind of money (even though the Spurs won't be able to sign any free agent for that kind of money).

Manu is currently the 27th best paid player in the whole league according to http://hoopshype.com/salaries.htm

So if you remove the 26 players before that, everybody else is more or less available :)

[DAF86]

Manu is currently the 27th best paid player in the whole league according to http://hoopshype.com/salaries.htm

So if you remove the 26 players before that, everybody else is more or less available :)

Seriously I would love to hear a reasonable option.

I proposed a Ginobili/Bonner/Neal for Gasol trade earlier on the season, but even that doesn't seem so possible.

[Bruno]

Also, is it just me or does it seem like timvp paid Bruno to disagree/play devil's advocate on basically everything he posts this year :lol?

I find we agree on a lot of things.

[DPG21920]

I find we agree on a lot of things.

So it is just me - usually the case.

[Brazil]

Regarding Manu, I'd say that he is clearly not having a great season so far but he is still an incredible asset for the Spurs. Besides, he played a fantastic Olympics just a few months ago there is no reason at this point to not believe that he will not play at this level again which by the way is a good answer to ElNono shtick: Manu is old what is TP excuse ? Apparently Manu is not old when he is playing for his NT but he is quite old when playing for a team paying him $14M :stirpot:

[ElNono]

Regarding Manu, I'd say that he is clearly not having a great season so far but he is still an incredible asset for the Spurs. Besides, he played a fantastic Olympics just a few months ago there is no reason at this point to not believe that he will not play at this level again which by the way is a good answer to ElNono shtick: Manu is old what is TP excuse ? Apparently Manu is not old when he is playing for his NT but he is quite old when playing for a team paying him $14M :stirpot:

Coasting, tbh... the Olympics are basically a two week playoffs...

As I said in the Boston game thread, this is just a CIA Manu ploy to spend the holidays with his kids... Non-Issue.

[TMTTRIO]

I don't see Manu sticking around anyways. With all of his injuries in this season alone including all the time it takes him to get his game back close to normal just to get injured again it must be very frustrating to him and probably has lost interest in playing too. Unless the Spurs win this year I see Manu calling it quits at the end of the season so it really doesn't matter.

[chazley]

timvp, glad to see you have finally joined me in relying more on numbers/stats/facts instead of the eye test in regards to Spurs analysis this year. In the past, I was alone even though I knew I was right, but it's nice to have you on my side. On the same note, Bruno has been completely dominated in this thread and I'm not sure why he is trying to bash Manu so hard.

[will_spurs]

timvp, glad to see you have finally joined me in relying more on numbers/stats/facts instead of the eye test in regards to Spurs analysis this year. In the past, I was alone even though I knew I was right, but it's nice to have you on my side. On the same note, Bruno has been completely dominated in this thread and I'm not sure why he is trying to bash Manu so hard.

One thing for sure, you still haven't laid off the drugs.

[ElNono]

The french agenda is pretty transparent, tbh... Manu getting minutes 'robs' De Colo minutes, and any extension to Manu would potentially keep taking minutes away from the frenchman...

[Brazil]

The french agenda is pretty transparent, tbh... Manu getting minutes 'robs' De Colo minutes, and any extension to Manu would potentially keep taking minutes away from the frenchman...

:lol

[Brazil]

Coasting, tbh... the Olympics are basically a two week playoffs...

As I said in the Boston game thread, this is just a CIA Manu ploy to spend the holidays with his kids... Non-Issue.

I hope Olympics Manu will be back for the POs maybe I am crazy but I do believe that with a rejuvenated Tim dominating on D and O and Tiago progress this team has a shot to at least the finals. This team is much more ready and equipped for a PO run than last year IMHO.

[ThaBigFundamental21]

Good read. Once I read the headline and saw TIMVP had posted it I couldn't wait to read it. I knew it would be good, and it was. I am concerned with Manu a bit, though the data does show we improves the team. I almost wonder if it is a respect/fear factor of opposing teams. They still believe he is the Manu of old so they respect what he could do. He still draws a lot of attention.

I would like to see Splitter start more often/get more minutes. If we can't get another big man, Pop needs to bring him along, LIKE NOW! Isn't there a good chance Splitter leaves after this season anyway?

Diaw. The numbers prove what the eyes have been saying. He just doesn't seem to be doing anything real awesome. It seems he is hesitant to shoot and he obviously has never been a good rebounder. His D is average. Nothing going with him.

Green. Well, the eyes don't lie, neither do the stats. His D seems very sub par compared to the past 2 seasons. If he is just a spot up jumper and isn't taking away opposing scoring, obviously he isn't helping us all that much.

I can't wait for Leonard to come back.

[benfti]

This is utterly fascinating, might be a silly question but do the coaches go into it this deep?

[Drz]

This is utterly fascinating, might be a silly question but do the coaches go into it this deep?
Ho yeah. They get into this stuff at a level deeper then we could possibly do, even if we devoted all our free time to it.

http://espn.go.com/blog/playbook/tech/post/_/id/492/492