Ghazi
12-24-2012, 05:45 AM
As a professional NFL handicapper, I observe the league closely. Here are the conclusions I draw.
1. The Denver Broncos are the best team in football- I said this 3 weeks ago when everyone was sucking the Patriots dick. Peyton's command and control of the offense is amazing... their run game is physical.. their pass rush is insane and they don't seem to allow much YAC. Simply the most complete team in football and the favorites in the AFC. As is always the case in the NFL, they're not a lock... probably not even over 50%... but I cannot find a significant weakness with this team. Only thing I will say is they've had an easy schedule this year, and did lose to the 3 contenders they played early in the year. But a team cannot really control it's schedule and the Broncos are playing superb regardless of the quality of competition.
2. There is a chance the Patriots are a fraudulent team- At this point, the Patriots winning the Super Bowl would be similar to what the 2007 Giants did. Their pass defense is simply not good enough. In the past few weeks major leaks on this team have been exploited. Kap and Henne had great games against this pass defense, which ranks as one of the worst in the NFL. I also feel the winning culture of the Patriots is overrated, and they've been massive underachievers the last 5 years. Brady/Bellichick should have 2-3 more Super Bowls. They would greatly benefit from a Houston loss next week, because I'd give them slim chances of winning @ Denver and @ Houston.
3. The wild card teams in the AFC have no shot - The Bengals, Colts, and Ravens are all weak teams, with the Colts being the worst of the bunch. The Ravens are an average team across the board, almost literally... the Bengals have a pretty solid pass rush, but I doubt their offense has what it takes. Haven't been impressed with Dalton in recent weeks, even though Green/Gresham are great weapons. Colts are one of the worst teams in the NFL that has benefited from a very easy schedule and excellent luck in close games. No chance of an AFC Wild Card team getting hot this year
4. The NFC is wide open - the Packers have emerged, the Falcons are definitely not the overrated team all of us thought they were... and the Seahawks/Niners are still there. The assertion that the Niners and Seahawks can't win because they have QBs who aren't elite isn't based in reality. With strong defenses and run games they have a shot. Also, Lord Kaepernick and Wilson are top 10 in pass efficiency, and the Niners/Seahawks are top 5 in yards per pass attempt... seems to me their passing offenses are strong enough. I will say a problem for the 49ers is while their offense is strong and efficient, they are 25th in 3rd down conversation rate. Seems to me like this is a team that cannot battle back from 10+ point deficits... tonight was an example. Matthews adds a different dynamic to a defense that was lousy for a stretch there, and Woodson should be back. I'll say the Redskins are the #1 darkhorse contender due to their amazing offense. Let's see where the chips fall with the final seeds, should be interesting.
5. The Panthers are a good team- If a great poker player has a 2 month stretch where they're losing, it doesn't mean they're a bad player... it just means they're unlucky. Similarly in the NFL, 15 games is not a huge sample, and luck/injuries/difficult schedules can skew perceptions. the Panthers are on a 3 game winning streak and have a net pass yardage per attempt differential of over 1. That is a metric most Super Bowl teams have and puts them in a class with the Niners/Seahawks/Broncos/Texans this year. Why are they 6-9? Simple... difficult schedule and poor luck in close games, with a very flukish OT loss to the Bucs and last second FG losses to the Panthers/Buccaneers. Newton has played excellent to close the season. Their pass rush is pretty damn strong also. This is a team to watch out for in 2013.
1. The Denver Broncos are the best team in football- I said this 3 weeks ago when everyone was sucking the Patriots dick. Peyton's command and control of the offense is amazing... their run game is physical.. their pass rush is insane and they don't seem to allow much YAC. Simply the most complete team in football and the favorites in the AFC. As is always the case in the NFL, they're not a lock... probably not even over 50%... but I cannot find a significant weakness with this team. Only thing I will say is they've had an easy schedule this year, and did lose to the 3 contenders they played early in the year. But a team cannot really control it's schedule and the Broncos are playing superb regardless of the quality of competition.
2. There is a chance the Patriots are a fraudulent team- At this point, the Patriots winning the Super Bowl would be similar to what the 2007 Giants did. Their pass defense is simply not good enough. In the past few weeks major leaks on this team have been exploited. Kap and Henne had great games against this pass defense, which ranks as one of the worst in the NFL. I also feel the winning culture of the Patriots is overrated, and they've been massive underachievers the last 5 years. Brady/Bellichick should have 2-3 more Super Bowls. They would greatly benefit from a Houston loss next week, because I'd give them slim chances of winning @ Denver and @ Houston.
3. The wild card teams in the AFC have no shot - The Bengals, Colts, and Ravens are all weak teams, with the Colts being the worst of the bunch. The Ravens are an average team across the board, almost literally... the Bengals have a pretty solid pass rush, but I doubt their offense has what it takes. Haven't been impressed with Dalton in recent weeks, even though Green/Gresham are great weapons. Colts are one of the worst teams in the NFL that has benefited from a very easy schedule and excellent luck in close games. No chance of an AFC Wild Card team getting hot this year
4. The NFC is wide open - the Packers have emerged, the Falcons are definitely not the overrated team all of us thought they were... and the Seahawks/Niners are still there. The assertion that the Niners and Seahawks can't win because they have QBs who aren't elite isn't based in reality. With strong defenses and run games they have a shot. Also, Lord Kaepernick and Wilson are top 10 in pass efficiency, and the Niners/Seahawks are top 5 in yards per pass attempt... seems to me their passing offenses are strong enough. I will say a problem for the 49ers is while their offense is strong and efficient, they are 25th in 3rd down conversation rate. Seems to me like this is a team that cannot battle back from 10+ point deficits... tonight was an example. Matthews adds a different dynamic to a defense that was lousy for a stretch there, and Woodson should be back. I'll say the Redskins are the #1 darkhorse contender due to their amazing offense. Let's see where the chips fall with the final seeds, should be interesting.
5. The Panthers are a good team- If a great poker player has a 2 month stretch where they're losing, it doesn't mean they're a bad player... it just means they're unlucky. Similarly in the NFL, 15 games is not a huge sample, and luck/injuries/difficult schedules can skew perceptions. the Panthers are on a 3 game winning streak and have a net pass yardage per attempt differential of over 1. That is a metric most Super Bowl teams have and puts them in a class with the Niners/Seahawks/Broncos/Texans this year. Why are they 6-9? Simple... difficult schedule and poor luck in close games, with a very flukish OT loss to the Bucs and last second FG losses to the Panthers/Buccaneers. Newton has played excellent to close the season. Their pass rush is pretty damn strong also. This is a team to watch out for in 2013.