ESPN Insider request: "Austin Rivers: Worst season ever?"

[AaronY]

Can someone post this plz tyia

[Dallas]

Thanks to the Chris Paul (http://espn.go.com/nba/player/_/id/2779/chris-paul) trade, the New Orleans Hornets (http://espn.go.com/nba/team/_/name/no/new-orleans-hornets) joined the Portland Trail Blazers (http://espn.go.com/nba/team/_/name/por/portland-trail-blazers)as one of two teams with a pair of picks in the lottery of last June's NBA draft. After taking Kentucky forward Anthony Davis (http://espn.go.com/nba/player/_/id/6583/anthony-davis) No. 1 overall, the Hornets were also able to add another top one-and-done prospect, Duke guard Austin Rivers (http://espn.go.com/nba/player/_/id/6617/austin-rivers), with the 10th pick.
While Davis and Rivers were once considered perhaps the top two prospects in the country coming out of high school, they have had very different professional debuts. When healthy, Davis has lived up to the hype he generated as a National Player of the Year and national champion during his lone college season; he leads all rookies in PER. By contrast, Rivers has struggled with the transition to the NBA, in several ways -- that includes making only 34.6 percent of his shot attempts inside the 3-point line.
In fact, Rivers is on track to make dubious history during his rookie campaign. Two months into the season, Rivers projects to rate nearly seven wins worse than a replacement-level player by my player metric (http://www.sonicscentral.com/warp.html), which would be the worst WARP score in the 34 seasons on record, starting with 1979-80, the first NBA season with the 3-point line.
WORST WARP SCORES

Player
Season
Team
Win %
MPG
WARP


Austin Rivers (projected)
2012-13
NOH
.271
28.2
-6.9


Jason Collins (http://espn.go.com/nba/player/_/id/987/jason-collins)
2006-07
NJN
.250
23.1
-6.5


Adam Morrison
2006-07
CHA
.300
29.9
-5.8


Michael Curry
2001-02
DET
.273
23.3
-5.7


Desmond Mason (http://espn.go.com/nba/player/_/id/518/desmond-mason)
2006-07
NOH
.313
34.3
-5.7


Desmond Mason
2005-06
NOH
.292
30.1
-5.6


Trenton Hassell (http://espn.go.com/nba/player/_/id/998/trenton-hassell)
2002-03
CHI
.288
24.4
-5.3


Calbert Cheaney (http://espn.go.com/nba/player/_/id/144/calbert-cheaney)
2002-03
UTA
.309
29.0
-5.3


Charlie Scott
1979-80
DEN
.287
27.0
-5.2


Juwan Howard
1999-00
WAS
.333
35.5
-5.2


Dickey Simpkins (http://espn.go.com/nba/player/_/id/777/dickey-simpkins)
1999-00
CHI
.268
23.9
-5.2




WARP stands for Wins Above Replacement Player, because normally it is measuring a player's positive impact. But in the case of Rivers, it is measuring a player's negative impact on his team's efforts.
Like its baseball cousins, the various types of "WAR" that figured so prominently in this year's AL MVP debate, WARP is a value statistic that includes two components -- per-minute performance (measured by player win percentage) and minutes played. For players who rate better than replacement, more minutes translate into more value. That relationship flips for ineffective players such as Rivers, who play worse than the type of player a team could invite to training camp or call up from the D-League.
So a "replacement player" is what, exactly? It's the type of player who is easy to find when a team needs a replacement. To find a good example, look no further than Hornets guardBrian Roberts (http://espn.go.com/nba/player/_/id/6641/brian-roberts), who went undrafted out of Dayton before starring overseas and signing with the Hornets after a successful stint in summer league. Roberts has been far more effective than Rivers as both a scorer and distributor while making the NBA's minimum salary.
Of course, to build a historically negative WARP rating, a player has to be on the court in the first place. Most of the leaderboard is made up of defensive specialists whose value is not reflected by their individual statistics. Collins, for example, is one of the players most underrated by advanced box score stats (http://godismyjudgeok.com/DStats/2012/nba-stats/underrated-and-overrated-via-rapm/).
Beyond that, the list is filled out by players who were overexposed on terrible teams and rookies whose potential demanded playing time that their performance did not yet justify. Rivers qualifies on both counts. With Eric Gordon (http://espn.go.com/nba/player/_/id/3431/eric-gordon) out of the lineup, the 5-22 Hornets have few good alternatives in the backcourt despite Roberts' surprising performance. Backup wing Xavier Henry (http://espn.go.com/nba/player/_/id/4241/xavier-henry) has been nearly as ineffective. The situation will change when Gordon returns to action after being cleared to practice over the weekend.
Still, Monty Williams will surely find regular playing time for Rivers, who appears to be a major part of New Orleans' future by virtue of the high pick the team used to draft him. Williams indicated as much to the New Orleans Times-Picayune earlier this month (http://www.nola.com/hornets/index.ssf/2012/12/new_orleans_hornets_rookie_gua_5.html), saying, "I'm going to play him through his mistakes and it's going to help our program two or three years from now."
Because this Hornets season is going nowhere, the more important question is what Rivers' slow start says about his long-term development. Despite the cautionary example of Adam Morrison (see chart), the only rookie currently in the WARP bottom 10, a poor first season isn't necessarily a death knell for a player's career. Allan Houston (http://espn.go.com/nba/player/_/id/349/allan-houston), Chris Kaman (http://espn.go.com/nba/player/_/id/1982/chris-kaman) and Glen Rice all developed into All-Stars after rating at least three wins below replacement as rookies. And none of those players was anywhere near as young or inexperienced as Rivers at the time.
Still, the more common outcome is that even those ineffective rookies who go on to long careers tend to never rate well statistically. Jeff Green (http://espn.go.com/nba/player/_/id/3209/jeff-green), who had -4.1 WARP during his first season with the Seattle SuperSonics, is a good example. As much as young players tend to improve, the shape of their performance usually doesn't change, and Rivers' volume shooting has always played better among scouts than by the numbers.
Furthermore, the troubling aspect of Rivers' play this season is that it can't really be called a fluke. In fact, his per-minute win percentage (.271) is nearly exactly what his translated college stat line (http://www.basketballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=376) indicated (.274). Frankly, there is no track record of Rivers playing an efficient brand of basketball against high-level competition. He was one of the least valuable NBA players during the preseason, and even shot just 4-of-19 from the field in two summer-league games before suffering an ankle injury.
Supporters will point to Rivers' shot selection as the culprit for his poor percentages, but Hoopdata.com shows that the larger issue has been his inability to finish at the rim (http://hoopdata.com/player.aspx?name=Austin%20Rivers), where Rivers is making just 42.9 percent of his attempts (the league average is 63.9 percent). Though this will improve as Rivers learns to navigate rangy NBA shot-blockers, finishing is typically a skill players bring with them to the league. Bradley Beal (http://espn.go.com/nba/player/_/id/6580/bradley-beal), another one-and-done guard who has struggled at times during his rookie season, is shooting 61.0 percent at the rim (http://hoopdata.com/player.aspx?name=Bradley%20Beal).
Moreover, Rivers has yet to show the kind of dynamic playmaking the Hornets hoped would allow him to transition to point guard in the NBA. His assist rate is only slightly better than average for a shooting guard, let alone a lead ball handler. If Rivers is unable to handle the point, it will be difficult for him to coexist with a healthy Gordon in the New Orleans backcourt.
At age 20, Rivers has plenty of time to develop a more efficient game, possibly focused around the best skill he has shown so far -- 36.7 percent shooting from beyond the arc. If he gets there, his eventual style of play will bear little resemblance to his ineffective brand of basketball thus far.

[mavs>spurs]

it's his first season ever as far as i'm concerned

[Dallas]

shitty column btw. Wasted my 1 yr membership for John hollinger alone and he left for fucking memphis

[irishock]

shitty column btw. Wasted my 1 yr membership for John hollinger alone and he left for fucking memphis

:lmao

[AaronY]

thx brah

Rivers is a b athlete and that is his biggest problem. rotation player at best imho

[CitizenDwayne]

This is not really surprising.

Monty's obsession with him is just bizarre.

[Trainwreck2100]

lol Hornets, matching Gordon and drafting this turd. Good way to ensure Davis pulls a Howard on your pelican ass

[Stalin]

never liked this fagel

[Koolaid_Man]

shitty column btw. Wasted my 1 yr membership for John hollinger alone and he left for fucking memphis

what retard spends his money on Hollinger in the first place...on a Mav fan...man I tell ya

[Latarian Milton]

picking nigga 10th was a terrible selection when they could've drafted jeremy lambo or anyone who actually knows somthin' bout ballin, shit ruined what would've otherwise been a great draft night fo new orleans imho

[Mal]

overhyped Dukie ? Of course he`ll suck in NBA..

[Clipper Nation]

:lol Only in the NBA because daddeh is a current head coach and former player

[TDMVPDPOY]

didnt monty williams use to play alongside with doc rivers anytime during their careers? if they did, could explain why his playin docs son and giving him the green light....dude reminds me of curry or monta ellis, given the green light to ball hog but ball doesnt go into hoop...if he cant even put ball into the hoop, then wtf is he doing in the nba?

[DUNCANownsKOBE]

his ceiling is Jamal Crawford. He might make a really good 6th man one day tbh.

[timvp]

He's a one-man tanking machine. Play him a lot of minutes and he'll allow you to tank 6 or 7 more games. That's pretty valuable for a tanking team, tbh.

[Mal]

didnt monty williams use to play alongside with doc rivers anytime during their careers? if they did, could explain why his playin docs son and giving him the green light....dude reminds me of curry or monta ellis, given the green light to ball hog but ball doesnt go into hoop...if he cant even put ball into the hoop, then wtf is he doing in the nba?

well hello there

http://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/SAS/1996.html

[Jacob1983]

Who reads and/or pays for ESPN Insider?

[z0sa]

Worst dad ever

[baseline bum]

LOL ever thinking Rivers could play point.

[Pelicans78]

LOL ever thinking Rivers could play point.

LOL at thinking he could play anything by the Hornets. Terrible draft pick.

He's worse as a SG because he can't shoot at all. His ball-handling is way ahead of his shooting.