Ian Mahinmi looking pretty darn good tonight [Archive]

objective

01-11-2013, 12:44 AM

He had a rough start of the season (and a terrible November), but even before tonight Pacers fans were by and large happy with Ian as their back up 5. He's shot terribly and had severe problems catching passes, but the important thing is that he's been getting better and better as the season has progressed. He no doubt had some adjustment issues after spending his whole career in Texas with a French teammate and zero guaranteed role or minutes, getting yanked around regardless of how he performed. This was the first time in his career where he had a place in a rotation and didn't have to look over his shoulder.

Pacer fans have been happy with his defense. And if you look at his stats, his fouls per 36 are at a career low while his blocks per 36 is higher than any year save his rookie year.

TrainOfThought5

01-11-2013, 01:08 AM

The fact is Ian proved himself the only time it really matters: the playoffs - in particular the finals. He stepped up in big moments and that's all you need to know.

he doesnt space the floor! :pop:

Obstructed_View

01-11-2013, 01:32 AM

Mahinmi has been pretty horrible this season, tbh. He's shooting 42% from the field and has a PER of 11. He's also still a fouling machine and his turnovers are at a career high.

I think he can be an average backup center. Right now, though, he's pretty darn bad.

So much :lol in four sentences. By your measure, the Spurs' starting center is an average backup center.

timvp

01-11-2013, 01:44 AM

So much :lol in four sentences. By your measure, the Spurs' starting center is an average backup center.

?

I read those two sentences and the emoticon thrice and have no idea where you're going with that, tbh.

Obstructed_View

01-11-2013, 01:48 AM

?

I read those two sentences and the emoticon thrice and have no idea where you're going with that, tbh.

Your high-water mark for Mahinmi is apparently Tiago Splitter.

In other words: we get it. You don't like Mahinmi, no matter what he does.

crc21209

01-11-2013, 02:08 AM

Key word: Tonight. He hasn't looked very good all season long tbh...

timvp

01-11-2013, 02:11 AM

Your high-water mark for Mahinmi is apparently Tiago Splitter.

In other words: we get it. You don't like Mahinmi, no matter what he does.

Since when do I not like Mahinmi? I was vocal in my support of Pop giving him a chance when he was here. I said it was dumb that the Spurs spent so much time and money on him yet never gave him even one fair opportunity to show what he could do. I pointed out the few times Mahinmi outplayed Splitter the few times they matched up. I did say the Pacers overpaid him in the summer -- and $16M over four years does look excessive for what they're getting.

And "no matter what he does" seems to indicate you think he's doing well. I can't agree with that. A bigman who is shooting 42% with an 11 PER while posting his highest turnover rate and a high foul rate is a below average backup center. It could be different if he were playing awesome defense ... but he's not.

Mahinmi, IMO, was worth around $5M over two years in the open market -- in other words, Aaron Gray type money. $16M was a massive overpayment and simply a case of poor scouting. He's pretty good but he's still raw and there's an upward climb for him to become an average backup center.

To compare, Robin Lopez got less than a third of what Mahinmi got in guaranteed money and is blowing him out of the water -- 56% shooting, 21 PER, less turnovers, less fouls, more blocks, etc.

To be fair to Mahinmi, it's not his fault that the Pacers were dumb. And it was far from the Pacers only dumb move. They also gave Gerald Green $10.5M after he had a few good 10-day contract stints on tanking teams. Swapping out Darren Collison for DJ Augustin has also basically been a bust. Hibbert and Hill are probably both overpaid, etc.

Anyways, tl;dr: I don't dislike Mahinmi. Pacers gave him too much money. He's been pretty bad so far but I think he can be an average backup center one day. Splitter is a much better player so I don't even know how to respond to that non sequitur, tbh.

timvp

01-11-2013, 02:14 AM

but even before tonight Pacers fans were by and large happy with Ian as their back up 5.It must be the new free agent gleam. His on/off stats are shockingly bad.

http://www.82games.com/1213/12IND14.HTM

He makes their offense 12.3 points worse per 100 possessions and makes their defense 4.1 points worse per 100 possessions ... for a grand total of 16.4 points worse per 100 possessions :wow

crc21209

01-11-2013, 02:16 AM

spurraider21

01-11-2013, 02:27 AM

timvp laying the smackdown in this thread :ihit

TrainOfThought5

01-11-2013, 02:31 AM

GNSF god doing GNSF gods do, to be honest.

outside of that.... i still wish we had current Mahinmi, rather than current Blair.

objective

01-11-2013, 02:39 AM

It must be the new free agent gleam. His on/off stats are shockingly bad.

http://www.82games.com/1213/12IND14.HTM

He makes their offense 12.3 points worse per 100 possessions and makes their defense 4.1 points worse per 100 possessions ... for a grand total of 16.4 points worse per 100 possessions :wow

Not at all. He had a truly awful November which had a lot of Pacer fans on the verge of rioting because he was an unnecessary trade for Collison who had an incredible November while Mahinmi could have just been signed outright.

And your stats are fool's gold, just look at the line-ups Mahinmi plays in because Vogel does his rotation in shifts. The top 3 5-man units in minutes featuring Mahinmi:

Most minutes: Augustin, Young, Green, Hansborough, Ian
2nd most: Augustin, George, Green, Hansborough, Ian
3rd most: Augustin, Stephenson, Green, Hansborough, Ian

Those are ALL crappy bench guys save George who also had a bad start. Hell, Sam Young has been cut! And he was in the number one minute unit! And Augustin had been such trash that he lost his spot to Lil' Ben Hansborough until he got hurt. Of course Ian's numbers are going to be trash playing with those guys.

All I can tell you is that before tonight on Pacer forums the vast majority were thrilled to have him over Lou Admundson who was their back-up 5 last year. Numerous times this year in game and post game threads there has been praise for Ian and comments about how if it was Admundson instead those games would have been lost. His defense has been praised as keeping a continuity from Hibbert as opposed to last year.

Has he been great? No. His shooting is bizarrely poor (but up from November). He's turning the ball over more. But he is a legit back up big right now, not in the potential future.

timvp

01-11-2013, 02:57 AM

And your stats are fool's gold, just look at the line-ups Mahinmi plays in because Vogel does his rotation in shifts.On/off isn't that great of a stat but Mahinmi has the lowest number of anyone still on the team (Young was lower before he got waived), so it's not like their entire bench is/was pulling him down.

All I can tell you is that before tonight on Pacer forums the vast majority were thrilled to have him over Lou Admundson who was their back-up 5 last year.Compared to Amundson, Mahinmi is a clear upgrade. There's no question there since Amundson is so bad offensively that it takes away all his other value. And he's small defensively as a center.

But what's important to note is Amundson is a minimum salaried player. Mahinmi got $16 million this offseason. If you're $16 million investment isn't an upgrade over a minimum salaried player, something is hugely wrong.

Has he been great? No. His shooting is bizarrely poor (but up from November). He's turning the ball over more. But he is a legit back up big right now, not in the potential future.I didn't say he wasn't legit; I said he wasn't an average backup center yet.

But, damn, as it stands, even this broken down version of Blair we've seen this year puts Mahinmi's numbers to shame: Blair averages more points per minute, more offensive rebounds, more defensive rebounds, more steals, more assists, less fouls, less turnovers, shoots better from the field and shoots better from the line. Literally the only thing Mahinmi is topping Blair on right now is blocks.

I'd take Mahinmi before Blair since Mahinmi actually has ACLs but he's definitely still a work in progress.

objective

01-11-2013, 02:58 AM

and just to add re: Pacer fans and the free agent gleam

The masses were very down on Ian because of how he played in November, it might have even stretched into December. Pacer fans were already mad about Bird leaving, and the play of Mahinmi, Green, and Augustin, the marquee signings of the offseason by Walsh, it was like the sky was falling in Pacerland. Fans were posting about how they wanted to see Plumlee instead of Ian, that is when they weren't complaining about how terrible a pick Plumlee was to begin with.

And as I mentioned, instead of just signing Ian outright the Pacers traded Collison for him who would have a killer November. And because Collison was gone, Walsh signed Augustin, so Ian was not only responsible for his own bad play but also the reason that the Pacers now had a terrible back-up point guard.

Ian is in the good graces of most Pacers fans because he's played his way into their good graces. And they watch every game and can see what he does for themselves.

timvp

01-11-2013, 03:03 AM

^The Mahinmi trade still looks pretty damn horrid, IMO. You give away Darren Collison for the right to give $16M to Mahinmi and pay Augustin more than Collison was owed? Wow .....

MoSpur

01-11-2013, 03:14 AM

Damn! Had no idea this thread was going this way. I just thought he played pretty darn good tonight. I also remember him playing good in a couple of playoff games for Dallas when it mattered. Not sure I woulda paid him $4 million per season.

I'll admit I haven't watched any of his games this season except tonight's so not sure how bad or how good he's been this season. Simply stated his stats for tonight's game and his stats for this season. Just wondering if at 26 if he still has time to improve and if any of you thought he will improve?

objective

01-11-2013, 03:19 AM

... But what's important to note is Amundson is a minimum salaried player. Mahinmi got $16 million this offseason. If you're $16 million investment isn't an upgrade over a minimum salaried player, something is hugely wrong.

I didn't say he wasn't legit; I said he wasn't an average backup center yet. ...

But, damn, as it stands, even this broken down version of Blair we've seen this year puts Mahinmi's numbers to shame ...

I'd take Mahinmi before Blair since Mahinmi actually has ACLs but he's definitely still a work in progress.

I don't know that the pay difference is worth noting too much in this context. Bottom line is they improved their back-up 5 and didn't break the bank to do it. A back up who can still get better, albeit in steps and not leaps (and his fouls have been down, relatively, and his blocks up). It's not like they did what the Warriors did last year and paid Kwame 8 million to come off the bench. He's not Robin Lopez, but he is who the Pacers got. He's not the steal of the offseason, but he's not a total stiff like Petro was when got 3/10 from the Nets or Colangelo giving Gray 2/5. Or giving Jackie Butler 2.5 a year.

To me, legit might as well mean average. Players who aren't average might fall out of the league when their contract is up; they're not legit. A whole mess of people on this board (not talking about you) would have sworn up and down that Ian wasn't legit, that he was just a scrub on his way out of the league. But no, he's an NBA player.

chapnis

01-11-2013, 03:22 AM

Shows how overpaid big men are at the moment. Makes Splitter contract seem like pretty amazing value.

MoSpur

01-11-2013, 03:25 AM

I like Splitter and his contract even better, but to be quite honest, I still think he's soft on defense and limited on offense.

objective

01-11-2013, 03:25 AM

Just wondering if at 26 if he still has time to improve and if any of you thought he will improve?

He's getting better but in small ways, and it's slow. But as I've posted, he was a little bit of a lightning rod for frustrated Pacer fans (though all the players were), but his improvement through the season has changed a lot minds. His defense is usually what gets the most praise, because otherwise he's fumbling the ball out of bounds or missing shots.

I don't think he'll be more than a back-up, but a solid rotation player. If he hadn't been locked up earlier than now he probably would be farther along and have a higher ceiling, but that ship sailed.

MoSpur

01-11-2013, 03:31 AM

I know I've only seen one of his games this season, but he looks better than when he was playing here. Good luck to him. I hoped the Spurs would've kept him for one more season, but understand.

exstatic

01-11-2013, 08:04 AM

I don't know that the pay difference is worth noting too much in this context. Bottom line is they improved their back-up 5 and didn't break the bank to do it. A back up who can still get better, albeit in steps and not leaps (and his fouls have been down, relatively, and his blocks up). It's not like they did what the Warriors did last year and paid Kwame 8 million to come off the bench. He's not Robin Lopez, but he is who the Pacers got. He's not the steal of the offseason, but he's not a total stiff like Petro was when got 3/10 from the Nets or Colangelo giving Gray 2/5. Or giving Jackie Butler 2.5 a year.

To me, legit might as well mean average. Players who aren't average might fall out of the league when their contract is up; they're not legit. A whole mess of people on this board (not talking about you) would have sworn up and down that Ian wasn't legit, that he was just a scrub on his way out of the league. But no, he's an NBA player.

The average NBA PER is about 15. Ian's is 11, so no, he's NOT even average.

DPG21920

01-11-2013, 09:59 AM

His first two years he posted PER's of 35 and 21 :wow

Spurs7794

01-11-2013, 10:40 AM

You know, people harp on certain players as chokers because of small sample size and yet Ian is a proven playoff performer because of 6 games he played in 2011? He hit ONE fadeaway at the third quarter buzzer in game 6 of the finals and thats all that anyone remembers.

His numbers for the 2011 playoff run where he was a vital cog for the team:

6 games played
34 min
3/5 from the field
5/9 from the line
11 pts
6 rebs
0 ast
1 steal
0 blk
0 turnovers
16 fouls

With those numbers, I should be able to prove myself pretty easily in the playoffs.

Spurs7794

01-11-2013, 10:43 AM

The fact is Ian proved himself the only time it really matters: the playoffs - in particular the finals. He stepped up in big moments and that's all you need to know.

You know, people harp on certain players as chokers because of small sample size and yet Ian is a proven playoff performer because of 6 games he played in 2011? He hit ONE fadeaway at the third quarter buzzer in game 6 of the finals and thats all that anyone remembers.

His numbers for the 2011 playoff run where he was a vital cog for the team:

6 games played
34 min
3/5 from the field
5/9 from the line
11 pts
6 rebs
0 ast
1 steal
0 blk
0 turnovers
16 fouls

With those numbers, I should be able to prove myself pretty easily in the playoffs.

-Sorry for the double post...

Mel_13

01-11-2013, 11:16 AM

If Ian was putting up his current numbers at his current salary with the Spurs, he'd be regarded as the third turd tower.

jjktkk

01-11-2013, 11:16 AM

I'm sure OV is still hoping the light will come on for Mahinmi, even though Mahinmi doesn't appear to have a bulb.

Horse

01-11-2013, 01:41 PM

Amazing we're still talking about this jerkoff. I almost wish we would have a 30 win season so we could get some appreciation around here for a team that has atleast been in the conversation the last 23 years. I'm a lifelong Redskins fan and know what it's like.

Chris

01-11-2013, 02:02 PM

The only reason we're talking about him is because there is a small percentage of Spurs' fans that think letting go of Mahinmi was a bad move. The illusion that we can just plug in any 7 foot center and win a championship.

objective

01-11-2013, 02:58 PM

The average NBA PER is about 15. Ian's is 11, so no, he's NOT even average.

PER measures efficiency, and Ian's been shooting poorly and turning the ball over, that's why it's so low. But he's also been making a difference defensively, which is a big part of why most Pacer fans are glad to have him.

Speaking of defense, why don't you go look up Bowen's PER numbers.

I'm not saying Ian is the Bowen of big men, but I am pointing out the fallacy of worshiping PER. It's a tool. Hell, Diaw's PER is only slightly above Ian's. You don't think Diaw is legit?

TJastal

01-12-2013, 05:40 AM

PER measures efficiency, and Ian's been shooting poorly and turning the ball over, that's why it's so low. But he's also been making a difference defensively, which is a big part of why most Pacer fans are glad to have him.

Speaking of defense, why don't you go look up Bowen's PER numbers.

I'm not saying Ian is the Bowen of big men, but I am pointing out the fallacy of worshiping PER. It's a tool. Hell, Diaw's PER is only slightly above Ian's. You don't think Diaw is legit?

+1

No doubt Mahinimi's offensive efficiency will improve as he becomes more comfortable in Vogel's system and with his new teammates.. He'll be a solid role player off the bench come playoff time.

TJastal

01-12-2013, 05:57 AM

I'm sure OV is still hoping the light will come on for Mahinmi, even though Mahinmi doesn't appear to have a bulb.

Who needs a bulb when they have the glow from a 2011 nba championship trophy? I know what you can do with your bulb. Plant it in your backyard and see it sprouts.

chapnis

01-12-2013, 05:59 AM

Also, while the mean PER is 15. The median PER is a touch over 14 this season. And median is probably a better measure of what average is.

exstatic

01-12-2013, 11:35 AM

PER measures efficiency, and Ian's been shooting poorly and turning the ball over, that's why it's so low. But he's also been making a difference defensively, which is a big part of why most Pacer fans are glad to have him.

Speaking of defense, why don't you go look up Bowen's PER numbers.

I'm not saying Ian is the Bowen of big men, but I am pointing out the fallacy of worshiping PER. It's a tool. Hell, Diaw's PER is only slightly above Ian's. You don't think Diaw is legit?

Did you REALLY just compare PERs of Ian and Bowen because they are both defensive players? They're not on the same planet, or even galaxy, defensively. Bowen was a constant All Defensive team fixture, frequently on the first team. The only thing that Ian is a fixture about is being on the bench because of fouls, lots and lots of fouls.

objective

01-12-2013, 06:49 PM

Did you REALLY just compare PERs of Ian and Bowen because they are both defensive players? They're not on the same planet, or even galaxy, defensively. Bowen was a constant All Defensive team fixture, frequently on the first team. The only thing that Ian is a fixture about is being on the bench because of fouls, lots and lots of fouls.

So are you going to post what Bowen's PERs were? Did you look them up?

Was Bowen an average player?

Because you're the one insisting that PER is the final measurement of what average is.

Here's a link to help you:

http://www.basketball-reference.com/

exstatic

01-12-2013, 07:07 PM

Did you REALLY just compare PERs of Ian and Bowen because they are both defensive players? They're not on the same planet, or even galaxy, defensively. Bowen was a constant All Defensive team fixture, frequently on the first team. The only thing that Ian is a fixture about is being on the bench because of fouls, lots and lots of fouls.

Call me when Ian reaches Bowen's defensive level. I'll give him the same dispensation I did with Bruce. Had Bruce NOT been All Universe on D, he'd have no more belonged on the SA roster than Ian ever did.

objective

01-12-2013, 07:39 PM

exstatic

01-12-2013, 07:50 PM

The point is that in the very post you quoted, I said that I wasn't comparing Ian to Bowen as defenders but illustrating the faults of going by PER.

But you ignored that, probably because you couldn't dispute the logic of my point about PER but still had to attack a strawman.

Thanks for admitting your position was a strawman.

PER is a VERY valid measure 99% of the time, and certainly is in Ian's case. He pretty much sucks, has sucked, and will suck. It isn't Pop, because he's never gotten any better in his other two stops.

objective

01-12-2013, 08:48 PM

Thanks for admitting your position was a strawman.

PER is a VERY valid measure 99% of the time, and certainly is in Ian's case. He pretty much sucks, has sucked, and will suck. It isn't Pop, because he's never gotten any better in his other two stops.

The strawman is of your invention.

You made up an attack because you had nothing logical to respond with.

Ian's January PER is about 19 before tonight.

What will you say if Ian finishes the year with a PER of 15? Or post all-star break with 15? Or a month of 15?

exstatic

01-13-2013, 12:14 AM

The strawman is of your invention.

You made up an attack because you had nothing logical to respond with.

Ian's January PER is about 19 before tonight.

What will you say if Ian finishes the year with a PER of 15? Or post all-star break with 15? Or a month of 15?

If he finished the year with a PER of 15, then for one year in his career, he was average. I don't really see it though. Using your link, I drilled in, and his PER has dropped as his minutes have grown, almost as a straight trend line. This year was the only exception. Both his minutes and his PER dropped.

objective

01-13-2013, 01:26 AM

His minutes and PER are down for the season, but are actually improving. He did have a terrible start to the season which I broke down earlier in this thread.

For example, in January, 6 games:

20 mpg
7 pts
6.5 rebounds
56.25 fg%
2.7 fouls
17.9 PER

linear weight PER, a modified almost exact PER, link to formula (http://bleacherreport.com/articles/113144-cracking-the-code-how-to-calculate-hollingers-per-without-all-the-mess)

And that doesn't even cover how useful overall his defense has been if you asked Pacer fans.

So look at the progression:

minutes
NOV - 14.4
DEC - 17.6
JAN - 20.05

FG%
NOV - 38.6
DEC - 43.8
JAN - 56.25

Rebounds per 36, worse in DEC than NOV
NOV - 8.8
DEC - 7.2
JAN - 11.7

fouls per 36, worse in DEC than NOV
NOV - 5.16
DEC - 5.58
JAN - 4.8

Turnovers per 36
NOV - 2.5
DEC - 2.58
JAN - 0.9

On the season according to 82 games: Ian is -89 in plus/minus.
In January's 6 games, with 4 games against playoff teams: Ian is +42. The Pacers scoring for all those games is +27.

So he's playing more, shooting better, rebounding better, fouling less, turning the ball over less. For the third seed in the east. Will it continue? I don't know. But Pacer fans seem largely satisfied. Some maybe even overly optimistic with regards to his potential.

You once were certain that Ian was garbage and wasn't even a basketball player but just an athlete. Sounds like you still are, despite what he's done in his career. But you might be getting better, being able to grudgingly concede that an incredibly deceptive stat like PER, which can vastly under and over values players including undervaluing Bowen, could then convince you that Ian is better than you think. Albeit for one year, which you would then dismiss somehow.

So that's progress.

objective

01-13-2013, 02:02 AM

just to add PER month to month, using the linear weighted PER:

OCT - 1 game, PER = -4.something. Negative 4. Awful.
NOV - 10.7 (15 games)
DEC - 11.3 (15 games)
JAN - 17.9 (6 games)

Obstructed_View

01-22-2013, 05:38 AM

Since when do I not like Mahinmi? I was vocal in my support of Pop giving him a chance when he was here. I said it was dumb that the Spurs spent so much time and money on him yet never gave him even one fair opportunity to show what he could do. I pointed out the few times Mahinmi outplayed Splitter the few times they matched up. I did say the Pacers overpaid him in the summer -- and $16M over four years does look excessive for what they're getting.

And "no matter what he does" seems to indicate you think he's doing well. I can't agree with that. A bigman who is shooting 42% with an 11 PER while posting his highest turnover rate and a high foul rate is a below average backup center. It could be different if he were playing awesome defense ... but he's not.

Mahinmi, IMO, was worth around $5M over two years in the open market -- in other words, Aaron Gray type money. $16M was a massive overpayment and simply a case of poor scouting. He's pretty good but he's still raw and there's an upward climb for him to become an average backup center.

To compare, Robin Lopez got less than a third of what Mahinmi got in guaranteed money and is blowing him out of the water -- 56% shooting, 21 PER, less turnovers, less fouls, more blocks, etc.

To be fair to Mahinmi, it's not his fault that the Pacers were dumb. And it was far from the Pacers only dumb move. They also gave Gerald Green $10.5M after he had a few good 10-day contract stints on tanking teams. Swapping out Darren Collison for DJ Augustin has also basically been a bust. Hibbert and Hill are probably both overpaid, etc.

Anyways, tl;dr: I don't dislike Mahinmi. Pacers gave him too much money. He's been pretty bad so far but I think he can be an average backup center one day. Splitter is a much better player so I don't even know how to respond to that non sequitur, tbh.

Sorry for the late response, since you took the time to respond (not tl;dr).

I'm with you on everything that you said above, except that he had a good game and you didn't give him credit for it. You didn't give him credit for playing well even when he did when he was here. Do I think he's "doing well"? No. Do I think he "did well"? Yep. I remember that you and I both thought he could crack the rotation right away because the Spurs' bigs were so terrible. Obviously he's NEVER developed anything like anyone thought he would, and in retrospect the Spurs lost nothing letting him go, even as terrible as their frontline has been at times.

Obstructed_View

01-22-2013, 05:42 AM

I'm sure OV is still hoping the light will come on for Mahinmi, even though Mahinmi doesn't appear to have a bulb.

Nope. He had a good game. Try to follow the point.

will_spurs

01-22-2013, 07:37 AM

Amazing the hate there's on this forum for a guy who's just doing his job, especially given the bigs the Spurs have had in the last 5 years...

Mahinmi is a backup center and that's all there is to it. There's no point in comparing him with anybody else than another back-up center. And he's not responsible for the Pacers overpaying him, that's on the GM. Furthermore his contract isn't that horrid (although the trade certainly was), especially compared to Jerome James, Petro, Kwame and so on.

Right now Blair is filling the stats sheet more than Ian, but that's what Blair does. What he also does is being a traffic cone on D, which isn't Ian's case. Ian has always fouled too much but fouls aren't a very good measure anyway for an end of bench player who can be asked to foul by the coach.

All in all he's doing his job. He wouldn't be making the Spurs any better (especially since he never had a good relationship with Pop) so we can just all wish him well and leave it at that...