Trade Odds for Every Player on The Spurs

[cd021]

An exercise in Futility...

Big-men

Tim Duncan-0%-There are hundreds of reasons why he’s safe but I’ll give you one. Last season Duncan blocked 88 shots (1.5 bpg) to 97 fouls (1.7 per game) in 58
games. This season Duncan’s blocked 106 shots in 39 games (2.7 bpg) compared to 64 fouls (1.7).

Tiago Splitter-35%-Splitter easily has the most trade value, among the touchable spurs players. His P.E.R of 19.3 is 4th highest on the team, and his Per 36 numbers: 16 pts, 8.7 rebs., 1.5 bpg while shooting 58%FG. He is a RFA after this season, so he can be retained by any team who acquires him.

Stephen Jackson-48%-Can Be a headache on a bad team, but his $10 million+ expiring contract could save a team millions.

Matt Bonner-75%-Still has value, not really to the spurs though. He could be a cheap and much needed addition to any team needing floor spacing. He can be waived in the offseason for $1 Million dollars.

Dejuan Blair-100%-Has been on the trade block for a while now, He is an Unrestricted Free Agent after this season, however. It would be hard to imagine anything more than a future second rounder.

Boris Diaw-35%-Diaw has seemingly found his niche in the spurs rotation. Coming off the bench, Diaw has produced more consistently. After being waived by the worst team in NBA history, Diaw has rebuilt his value as a contributing member on a contending team. His contract is easy enough to move, with less than 4.5 million guaranteed and an player option for next season. He would likely only be included in a package deal to match salaries.

Wings

Danny Green-30%-Greens’ been consistently streaky this season but generally provides good defense. His shooting numbers are almost carbon copies of last season his scoring is up slightly but if the spurs were hoping for internal development, his stats seem rather similar to last season. He is on a good contract, and is a serviceable starter, but there aren’t many better options available the spurs could afford.

Kawhi Leonard-10%-Considered to be the future of the franchise, unlikely to be moved unless in a blockbuster. That tends to be something the Spurs avoid.

Manu Ginobili-4%-Never say never, but he does have a massive expiring contract…

Nando De Colo-15%-He shown to be a natural passer, but is still developing into a NBA player at age 25. Not much value, at least to other teams.

Guards-
Tony Parker-0%-Parkers lead the team in scoring and assists since the Spurs started their reinvention (2 & ½ seasons ago). His value would be high the highest on the team, should he find his way on the block because of his great contract

Patty Mills-25%-Mills has more than lived up to his cheap contract he signed in the offseason. He ranks 4th on the team in True Shooting % and 4th in Points Per 36 minutes (16.4). He is a valuable weapon and would likely only be moved in a package deal (likely with Blair, & Bonner)

Gary Neal-50%-A strong case can be made than Neal is the draft/free agent steal since Manu Ginobili. In his first two seasons, he’s averaged 9pts, in 21 minutes on 40%3pt. Neal is only being paid $1.5 million this season, however, and he has been less effective and is clearly more expendable with Mills on the roster.

In terms of PER 36 minutes, Neal is 3rd on the team in Field Goals Attempted per 36 minutes ahead of players who play bigger roles on team, such as Green, Splitter & Ginobili. Much of the season he has shot under his career FG % & 3pt%. Neal is capable of exploding on the offensive end on any given night.
Some of Neal’s struggles can be placed on playing a position that isn’t natural to him, point guard. As a shooting guard he is a much better fit but is still behind Green & Ginobili in the depth chart.He could be moved for a pick or in a package deal with Blair and Bonner. Neal is a RFA after this season and could be retained by any team that acquires him.

Cory Joseph-18%-Still developing, and has limited NBA experience. He would only be move in a package deal similar to Mills, but isn’t nearly as much of an tradeable asset.

[MANUNG-Ginobili]

where's Diaw?

[Cry Havoc]

Mills's trade chances are probably much higher given his relative value.

[FromWayDowntown]

Those are some oddly specific numbers in some instances. 18% chance for Joseph - not 15% and not 20% but 18%?

[Mel_13]

A few thoughts:

-Diaw and Mills are both one year Bird players and can veto any trade. Makes the chance of either being traded close to zero.

-4% chance of Manu being traded is way too high

-Jackson has more trade value than Splitter. Splitter's contract is just too small. You have to combine him with others players to have a realistic scenario of improving the team by trading him away.

[playblair]

........... @ the myth blair is only worth a 2nd rounder ..........

the defending nba champs wanted blair .........

In the days leading up to the 2012 NBA Draft, the Spurs spoke to a number of teams about the 23-year-old big man. They nearly sent Blair to the Miami HEAT


blair should be back in the rotation after his recent performance vs the timber wolves ...............

[Mel_13]

........... @ the myth blair is only worth a 2nd rounder ..........

the defending nba champs wanted blair .........



And weren't willing to give up a first round pick. If they had been willing to do so, Blair would be a Heat right now.

At this point it may well be a myth that he's worth as much as a second round pick and the Spurs may have to pay someone to get him off their payroll.

[Eddy from Austin]

there's the small handful of players every season possessing a one-year contract who, since they've re-signed with their previous employer on a one-year basis, can't be traded without consent because their Early Bird or Full Bird free-agent rights at season's end are forfeited if the player is dealt elsewhere.

This season's 13 members of Team Veto with one-year deals providing that unique trade-blocking power: (http://espn.go.com/nba/dailydime/_/page/dime-130111-12/nba-latest-nba-trade-chatter)

Ivan Johnson (Atlanta)
Brandon Rush (Golden State)
Chauncey Billups (Los Angeles Clippers)
Devin Ebanks (Los Angeles Lakers)
Darius Morris (Los Angeles Lakers)
Marreese Speights (Memphis)
J.R. Smith (New York)
J.J. Hickson (Portland)
Boris Diaw (San Antonio)
Patty Mills (San Antonio)
Alan Anderson (Toronto)
Aaron Gray (Toronto)
Cartier Martin (Washington)

[Boomersgold]

........... @ the myth blair is only worth a 2nd rounder ..........

the defending nba champs wanted blair .........

blair should be back in the rotation after his recent performance vs the timber wolves ...............


An okay performance in a single game isn't really enough for someone to be reinserted into the regular rotation. Blair will have to show a lot more than that.

Awesome thread, cd021.

[spurraider21]

Neal shouldn't be traded. in fact, he should be on the floor in late possessions where we NEED a shot. tony, neal, manu, jax, timmy tbh

[look_at_g_shred]

Neal shouldn't be traded. in fact, he should be on the floor in late possessions where we NEED a shot. tony, neal, manu, jax, timmy tbh

I agree with that statement 100%

[sananspursfan21]

Ginobili actually has a 4.258% chance of being traded. Step it up bro

[superbigtime]

I agree with that statement 100%

Yes, definitely shouldn't be Green in close games ala Memphis. He just can't hit big shots at end of game situations. That's where Neal is at his best.

[Mel_13]

Yes, definitely shouldn't be Green in close games ala Memphis. He just can't hit big shots at end of game situations.


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NRzgjfqWIOI

[buttsR4rebounding]

Those are some oddly specific numbers in some instances. 18% chance for Joseph - not 15% and not 20% but 18%?

Last time I checked both 15 and 20 were also specific numbers, but only 15 is odd.:rolleyes

[Chinook]

People don't realize that even the best shooters miss more than half the time. Horry, Duncan, Manu and Tony have all missed potential game-winners in their time. Before people go "b-b-b-but Memphis in the playoffs..." they should remember how many clutch shots Neal missed in a row against the Heat this year. We were all too happy about how close the game was to really mention it, but Neal was just as bad at the end of that game as Green was in Memphis.

[buttsR4rebounding]

Overall, I would say all of these numbers are way too high, except for Blair and even that is not 100%. Given that the Spurs are not usually trade partners during the season it is unlikely that Danny Green's likelihood of being traded is 30%. It is probably more like 5%. Manu is probably more like 1% or less. There are less than 25 players in the league the Spurs would trade Manu for and those players aren't leaving their teams. The only players that may reach a likely trade percentage over 10% are Blair (90%+) and Bonner (maybe 10%, but not much higher). Other than Blair there is probably less than a 5% chance the Spurs trade anyone so all percentages would be below 5%. Especially with the apparent signing of Baynes it does not look like the Spurs are looking to trade for another big.

[timvp]

Way too high across the board, IMO. My odds of getting traded before the trade deadline:

DeJuan Blair: 20%
Stephen Jackson: 5%
Tiago Splitter: 2%
Matt Bonner: 2%
Gary Neal: 2%
Cory Joseph: 2%
Danny Green: 1%
Nando De Colo: 1%
Patrick Mills: 1%
Boris Diaw: <1%
Kawhi Leonard: <1%
Manu Ginobili: 0%
Tony Parker: 0%
Tim Duncan: 0%

[Chinook]

I imagine you mean "<1%," instead of ">1%" for these probablities, timvp (http://www.spurstalk.com/forums/member.php?u=8).

[Bruno]

Blair, Bonner and Neal have a good chance of being traded. Others will likely stay.

[timvp]

I imagine you mean "<1%," instead of ">1%" for these probablities, timvp (http://www.spurstalk.com/forums/member.php?u=8).
Oops, good catch:tu


Blair, Bonner and Neal have a good chance of being traded. Others will likely stay.
I think the time to trade Bonner will be the 2013 NBA Draft. A team can trade for him and then waive him and only owe $1 million. At that point, he'll have max value.

As for Neal, while a trade is possible, I see it as a longshot. When the team is whole, he doesn't add much to these Spurs. But when any type of injury strikes, his value skyrockets.

I'd put Jackson second just because any big contract coming in return pretty much needs his inclusion.

[LittleCriminal]

Here are the real percentages...

DeJuan Blair: 100%
Stephen Jackson: 50%
Tiago Splitter: 0%
Matt Bonner: 50%
Gary Neal: 50%
Cory Joseph: 0%
Danny Green: 0%
Nando De Colo: 0%
Patrick Mills: 0%
Boris Diaw: 0%
Kawhi Leonard: 0%
Manu Ginobili: 0%
Tony Parker: 0%
Tim Duncan: 0%

[cd021]

where's Diaw?

Forgot him, adding him now...

[cd021]

Those are some oddly specific numbers in some instances. 18% chance for Joseph - not 15% and not 20% but 18%?

Originality a curse...i guess

[Chinook]

I think the time to trade Bonner will be the 2013 NBA Draft. A team can trade for him and then waive him and only owe $1 million. At that point, he'll have max value.

We've been talking about this in the Think Tank. I definitely agree with you on waiting until June, but I don't think the market will be a good as it can be if the Spurs can make a little more room under the luxury tax.

Bonner's deal becomes guaranteed on the 29th of June, which sucks, because the Spurs cannot take back as much salary as they could had then been allowed to wait until the 30th. The Spurs can't really go over the tax trading for Bonner due to the new matching rules, so right now, the most salary the Spurs could take back from moving Bonner is $4.5 Million (125-percent of his salary). If they move Blair before the deadline for nothing, then they can take back up to the tax, which I think it about $5.1 Million. If the Spurs have someone in mind like Derrick Williams, then trading Blair this year may be their best shot to get him at the time the Wolves are most likely to be selling him.

[Bruno]

I think the time to trade Bonner will be the 2013 NBA Draft. A team can trade for him and then waive him and only owe $1 million. At that point, he'll have max value.

I agree, Bonner will be a sweet trade asset in June. But if Spurs do a trade at this trade deadline, Blair and Neal with their low salary likely won't be enough to match salaries. Bonner would be a trade filler to make the trade work under the CBA.



As for Neal, while a trade is possible, I see it as a longshot. When the team is whole, he doesn't add much to these Spurs. But when any type of injury strikes, his value skyrockets.

I think that Neal has a nice little trade value. He might fetch a good player or draft pick from a team that needs more offense/shooting. Even if Neal is useful when a wing is injured, I rather take what I could from him than keeping him. Another issue regarding Neal is what to do with him this summer: Do you let him walk and get nothing back or do you keep him and have a logjam at the guards spots.

[cd021]

Here are the real percentages...

DeJuan Blair: 100%
Stephen Jackson: 50%
Tiago Splitter: 0%
Matt Bonner: 50%
Gary Neal: 50%
Cory Joseph: 0%
Danny Green: 0%
Nando De Colo: 0%
Patrick Mills: 0%
Boris Diaw: 0%
Kawhi Leonard: 0%
Manu Ginobili: 0%
Tony Parker: 0%
Tim Duncan: 0%

Are the rest of the guys untouchables?, because I don't believe the spurs would turn down market value for say Boris Diaw.

[Mel_13]

Are the rest of the guys untouchables?, because I don't believe the spurs would turn down market value for say Boris Diaw.

Diaw can veto a trade.

[Chinook]

Diaw and Mills both have veto rights, but I'd only expect Diaw to use them. Mills would probably not be negatively affected financially for any trade, as he's likely to get a contract similar to the one he's getting now. I don't think he'd even opt out. He'd be expecting no more than the MLE in any circumstance.

Diaw probably wouldn't opt out, either. But if he were to, he'd probably have a hard time finding $4.7 Million on the open market. If he were to stay with the Spurs, he could re-sign for a much as $7.875 (35M/4), which is a lot more than the MLE (21.4M/4), obviously.

[Spurs7794]

People don't realize that even the best shooters miss more than half the time. Horry, Duncan, Manu and Tony have all missed potential game-winners in their time. Before people go "b-b-b-but Memphis in the playoffs..." they should remember how many clutch shots Neal missed in a row against the Heat this year. We were all too happy about how close the game was to really mention it, but Neal was just as bad at the end of that game as Green was in Memphis.
Great post. I'm amazed when someone misses a big shot, someone always says "so and so choked". Most players miss more shots than they make so if they miss a big shot, it doesn't mean they choked.

[cd021]

Neal shouldn't be traded. in fact, he should be on the floor in late possessions where we NEED a shot. tony, neal, manu, jax, timmy tbh


It isn't that Neal is clutch its that the Spurs need offense late, and Neal provides it more so than Leonard.

Green is a better option on almost any given night late. His provides solid defense, and boards. He also has been a better shooter than Neal since the start of last season, when he became apart of the spurs rotation.

Its rather odd the perception, that Neal is more clutch than Green. Neal has a history of mistakes late in games including missing crucial free-throws.

[cd021]

Diaw can veto a trade.

An example, but point taken.

[Ice009]

I agree, Bonner will be a sweet trade asset in June. But if Spurs do a trade at this trade deadline, Blair and Neal with their low salary likely won't be enough to match salaries. Bonner would be a trade filler to make the trade work under the CBA.



I think that Neal has a nice little trade value. He might fetch a good player or draft pick from a team that needs more offense/shooting. Even if Neal is useful when a wing is injured, I rather take what I could from him than keeping him. Another issue regarding Neal is what to do with him this summer: Do you let him walk and get nothing back or do you keep him and have a logjam at the guards spots.

If Neal agrees to a reasonable contract, you could resign him and trade him later. He shouldn't be too hard to trade if he is on a reasonable contract. There is no need to trade him this deadline, unless he's filler in a big trade where we get something really good in return, better off resigning him and trading him later if it doesn't work out.

[Chinook]

Great post. I'm amazed when someone misses a big shot, someone always says "so and so choked". Most players miss more shots than they make so if they miss a big shot, it doesn't mean they choked.

I read a long time ago showing that Jordan shot his career averages during clutch situations. I remember lurking last year and seeing timvp post (http://www.spurstalk.com/forums/showthread.php?t=191707) about clutch shots. He came to a different conclusion that I did, but even so, he the most clutch player he showed didn't even have a 50-percent track-record. I imagine his number for Neal has gone down since then.

[Dr. Robert Lee]

People don't realize that even the best shooters miss more than half the time. Horry, Duncan, Manu and Tony have all missed potential game-winners in their time. Before people go "b-b-b-but Memphis in the playoffs..." they should remember how many clutch shots Neal missed in a row against the Heat this year. We were all too happy about how close the game was to really mention it, but Neal was just as bad at the end of that game as Green was in Memphis.
Neal was PATHETIC against the Heat. He single-handily lost us that damn game, missing shot after shot down the stretch.

The fact that people say he hits "big shots" makes me LOL. It is a laughable assertion, tbh.

[TD 21]

I think that Neal has a nice little trade value. He might fetch a good player or draft pick from a team that needs more offense/shooting. Even if Neal is useful when a wing is injured, I rather take what I could from him than keeping him. Another issue regarding Neal is what to do with him this summer: Do you let him walk and get nothing back or do you keep him and have a logjam at the guards spots.

Yeah, but at best he'd fetch a late 1st and what good is that to a team with serious championship aspirations? If Leonard would have emerged as a legit fourth option/secondary creator, that would have freed them up to move Neal. But because that hasn't happened, I don't see them trading Neal, unless they can get Derrick Williams or someone similar.

As far as the logjam at guard, it's pretty much a given that one of Neal or Mills won't be on the team next season. If Neal isn't traded, he'll more than likely be re-signed (unless they don't reach a verbal agreement before July 1 and someone throws an insane offer sheet at him). In that case, Mills will almost certainly opt out and De Colo and Joseph aren't good enough prospects to worry about there not being a clear path to a spot in the rotation for.

In terms of the trade odds, the only players I could see being traded, are Blair (50%), Bonner (5%), Neal (2%) and Joseph (2%).

[Duncan2177]

Neal was PATHETIC against the Heat. He single-handily lost us that damn game, missing shot after shot down the stretch.

The fact that people say he hits "big shots" makes me LOL. It is a laughable assertion, tbh.


http://youtu.be/rZNKqA1DwQY


http://youtu.be/RaSnVI5jotk

[Chinook]

http://youtu.be/rZNKqA1DwQY


http://youtu.be/RaSnVI5jotk

They don't make Youtube videos for misses, or else people would respond with those right now.

[DPG21920]

For some reason when I read the thread title I read "Trade Every Player on The Spurs". Thought that was a bit rash.

[DPG21920]

I really wish the Spurs would have had some more assets before the season started to go after Harden. No doubt in my mind OKC would much rather have Manu instead of K-Mart (for a team pushing for a title) but the Spurs didn't have enough to offer naturally.

Not that it has anything to do with this, just thinking out loud.

[spurraider21]

It isn't that Neal is clutch its that the Spurs need offense late, and Neal provides it more so than Leonard.

Green is a better option on almost any given night late. His provides solid defense, and boards. He also has been a better shooter than Neal since the start of last season, when he became apart of the spurs rotation.

Its rather odd the perception, that Neal is more clutch than Green. Neal has a history of mistakes late in games including missing crucial free-throws.
Green is the better defender, but I specifically mentioed possessions where we need to make a clutch shot. I'd take Neal over Green. I've seen him make more big shots than Green, and he has a quicker release

[cd021]

They don't make Youtube videos for misses, or else people would respond with those right now.

You forgot to mention the reason why the spurs needed that game tying 3 from Neal.He turned the ball over with 9 seconds left the 4th. Foye threw a terrible pass to Paul, who made a mental mistake by tossing the ball up in the air instead of taking a back court violation.

Neal happened to be right their and caught the ball and made the 3. He also missed both of his free throws with 8 seconds left in OT. If he had made 1 of them he would have iced the game, instead Paul & the Clippers had a chance to tie it but missed. Not quite hero ball.

Neal had a horrid series against the Grizzles shooting 37% and 29.5% 3pt. The Spurs were outscored by +/- -34 in the 1st 4 games of that series with Neal on the floor and a +/- - 22 for the series. Only one of those games were decided by more than 8 points. We lost that series by being outscored by -18. Him hitting a shot to force overtime isn't something that proves that a player is clutch, he hit a tough shot thats that.

He wasn't the sole reason the Spurs lost the series (obviously) but his play didn't exactly put us in position to win several games with his "clutch play".

[Chinook]

You forgot to mention the reason why the spurs needed that game tying 3 from Neal.He turned the ball over with 9 seconds left the 4th. Foye threw a terrible pass to Paul, who made a mental mistake by tossing the ball up in the air instead of taking a back court violation.

Neal happened to be right their and caught the ball and made the 3. He also missed both of his free throws with 8 seconds left in OT. If he had made 1 of them he would have iced the game, instead Paul & the Clippers had a chance to tie it but missed. Not quite hero ball.

Neal had a horrid series against the Grizzles shooting 37% and 29.5% 3pt. The Spurs were outscored by +/- -34 in the 1st 4 games of that series with Neal on the floor and a +/- - 22 for the series. Only one of those games were decided by more than 8 points. We lost that series by being outscored by -18. Him hitting a shot to force overtime isn't something that proves that a player is clutch, he hit a tough shot thats that.

He wasn't the sole reason the Spurs lost the series (obviously) but his play didn't exactly put us in position to win several games with his "clutch play".

I don't know why you quoted me, but I agree.

[benfti]

let Patty be the PG whenever Baynes is on court and sit back and watch the Men at Work..



see what I did there?

[cd021]

I don't know why you quoted me, but I agree.

I may have quoted the wrong person, my bad.

[FireMicoHalili]

So which players are our trade chips? Blair, CoJo can easily be dispensed with. I wouldn't mind trading Jax, Bonner, Neal, Diaw, and Mills away...

[cd021]

So which players are our trade chips? Blair, CoJo can easily be dispensed with. I wouldn't mind trading Jax, Bonner, Neal, Diaw, and Mills away...

Jackson's expiring contract and Neal's cheap production on the wing are really the only players I could maybe, sort of, see us move.

[chapnis]

I doubt Boris or patty would agree to a trade