cd021
01-17-2013, 10:54 PM
Since the start of the '10-11 season, Tony Parker has become the key to the spurs reinvention. Not only has he lead the team in scoring over the past two 1/2 seasons, but he has played a significant role in making the Spurs a offense juggernaut. The Spurs have ranked 2nd , 1st and are currently 5th in offensive efficiency Since the '10-11 season. Parker also has ranked amongst the leaders in Assists/Turnover ratio in that period. He is currently second among players who currently average more than 30 minutes per game this season, with an asts/T.O ration 3 to 1. When factoring in his 7.2 per game to go along with his 19.5 points per game, Parker accounts for more than 1/3 of the spurs offense while posting a career high in true shooting percentage (58.4%) and P.E.R (22.4). It is also worth mentioning the spurs have won nearly 75% of their games since the teams offensive transformation started.
Duncan is under contract until the '14-15 seasons and assuming if Ginobili re signs, he could play up to that point as well. Parker would be 33 at the start of the the following season. It is difficult to imagine Parker with out his quickness and beating player to the rim with his speed. However Parker has steadily evolved a accurate jump shooter, and is posting a career high in 3pt%.
Ginobili provides some precedent for aging all star perimeter players who have remained effective, earlier in his career he became known for his reckless and uncanny ability to get to the rim and finish. At the age of 33 in the 2010-2011 season Ginobili compensated for loss of agility by attempting a career high in 3 pointers. As a result he managed to stay healthy enough to played in 77 games averaging 30 minutes per game ,and post an impressive 17.4 points per game.
( A shot chart showing Parkers accuracy, outside the paint)
http://vorped.com/bball/index.php/player/shotchart/1134-Tony-Parker/season/2012-2013-REG?metric=zone_fg
If Parker can further develop an perimeter shot, the more effective Parker can become later in his career. He occasional spots up on the left wing as a 3 point shooter, especially when Ginobili and Parker play together and Manu is the ball handler. With Parker being able to play more off the ball, Parker could find easier shots closer to the rim. If De Colo develops into an starting caliber guard within the next 3 seasons (seems reasonable enough), The teams transition in to the new Parker led Spurs could go that much more seamlessly. Just having an play-maker , as 2 guard is a luxury, and has helped the Spurs in the past with a highly successful Parker & Ginobili tandem. Splitter and Leonard also play big roles in the post big 3 era.
Its hard to say how Leonard will look as a player in the next 3 seasons. Maybe he becomes something ,not to dissimilar to Andre Iguodala. An athletic wing who can make plays off the dribble for himself and others, rebounds and become an truly elite defender (he seems well on his way with the last two). Leonard has already shown an ability to cut, His jump shot is already well ahead of what any one thought it could be at this point (37.4%3pt, last season 37.7%3pt this season).
Splitter is already one of the pick and roll finishers in the league, but his becoming a truly consistent scorer in the post, would be a huge help in minimizing the massive hole that Duncan's retirement would mean the spurs on offense.
To be honest, I have no idea what the future holds for Patty Mills, Gary Neal, & Cory Joseph. Mills has become an highly efficient pg/sg who can light it up in spurts. Neal baffles me, as a starter he can put points up, but he may take a lot of shots in the process, while defensively, he may negate the offense he does give. He is also rather small, nonathletic and an average arm span, he doesn't seem to be a player who could play 30 minutes a game with Parker beside him for most of the game. Joseph seems primed to be a backup point guard but where is the question, he could turn into an above average play-maker and defender but I'm not entirely sure they would keep him around if they like both Mills and Neal for the future.
The Spurs also have a couple of overseas prospects ,namely Ryan Richards & Davis Bertans, who could become rotation player eventually.
The initial future after the big 3 ends could see the spurs remain a playoff team. That depends on the development of several players key players, solid drafting, and the overall depth of the western conference, not to mention great coaching.
Duncan is under contract until the '14-15 seasons and assuming if Ginobili re signs, he could play up to that point as well. Parker would be 33 at the start of the the following season. It is difficult to imagine Parker with out his quickness and beating player to the rim with his speed. However Parker has steadily evolved a accurate jump shooter, and is posting a career high in 3pt%.
Ginobili provides some precedent for aging all star perimeter players who have remained effective, earlier in his career he became known for his reckless and uncanny ability to get to the rim and finish. At the age of 33 in the 2010-2011 season Ginobili compensated for loss of agility by attempting a career high in 3 pointers. As a result he managed to stay healthy enough to played in 77 games averaging 30 minutes per game ,and post an impressive 17.4 points per game.
( A shot chart showing Parkers accuracy, outside the paint)
http://vorped.com/bball/index.php/player/shotchart/1134-Tony-Parker/season/2012-2013-REG?metric=zone_fg
If Parker can further develop an perimeter shot, the more effective Parker can become later in his career. He occasional spots up on the left wing as a 3 point shooter, especially when Ginobili and Parker play together and Manu is the ball handler. With Parker being able to play more off the ball, Parker could find easier shots closer to the rim. If De Colo develops into an starting caliber guard within the next 3 seasons (seems reasonable enough), The teams transition in to the new Parker led Spurs could go that much more seamlessly. Just having an play-maker , as 2 guard is a luxury, and has helped the Spurs in the past with a highly successful Parker & Ginobili tandem. Splitter and Leonard also play big roles in the post big 3 era.
Its hard to say how Leonard will look as a player in the next 3 seasons. Maybe he becomes something ,not to dissimilar to Andre Iguodala. An athletic wing who can make plays off the dribble for himself and others, rebounds and become an truly elite defender (he seems well on his way with the last two). Leonard has already shown an ability to cut, His jump shot is already well ahead of what any one thought it could be at this point (37.4%3pt, last season 37.7%3pt this season).
Splitter is already one of the pick and roll finishers in the league, but his becoming a truly consistent scorer in the post, would be a huge help in minimizing the massive hole that Duncan's retirement would mean the spurs on offense.
To be honest, I have no idea what the future holds for Patty Mills, Gary Neal, & Cory Joseph. Mills has become an highly efficient pg/sg who can light it up in spurts. Neal baffles me, as a starter he can put points up, but he may take a lot of shots in the process, while defensively, he may negate the offense he does give. He is also rather small, nonathletic and an average arm span, he doesn't seem to be a player who could play 30 minutes a game with Parker beside him for most of the game. Joseph seems primed to be a backup point guard but where is the question, he could turn into an above average play-maker and defender but I'm not entirely sure they would keep him around if they like both Mills and Neal for the future.
The Spurs also have a couple of overseas prospects ,namely Ryan Richards & Davis Bertans, who could become rotation player eventually.
The initial future after the big 3 ends could see the spurs remain a playoff team. That depends on the development of several players key players, solid drafting, and the overall depth of the western conference, not to mention great coaching.