Playoff Minutes and Limited Rotations

[TrainOfThought5]

I think one of the reasons we struggle so much against top teams is because they play their best players a lot more minutes than ours. our depth is good, but theyre not starter quality guys (outside of Gino/Jackson/[Diaw on his good days]), especially against the good teams. With Duncan's resurgence and Tony's MVP-esque performance, would it be possible to squeeze more minutes out of our stars, and limit the rotation to our most consistent Role Players, thereby augmenting the benefits of our internal improvements and thereby creating a better playoff team?

any thoughts on what those extended minutes would look like if we went with a playoff rotation consisting primarily of: TP/KL/MG/TD/TS/SJ/GN/BD(?)

I'm leaving off Green because I just dont trust him when the lights get their brightest, but he can still start in a 2011-2012 Blair type role, but not finish games. Also, I have a hunch that Baynes will prove to be a significant contributor of interior defense and rebounding off the bench this season, allowing us to offer a large lineup of BD/TS/AB as a frontcourt off the bench.

I'm just brainstorming here guys, what do you think?

[Chinook]

I don't understand how Green is a playoff choker, but Splitter isn't. Did we all forget what actually happened in the WCF?

[Paranoid Pop]

TP will play 38 min
KY, Manu, Tim should play 30 min at least.
Splitter and Diaw should play 30 as well imo.

TP + 12 minutes of backup PG
Manu + De Colo?

Imo a 3 men Tp Manu De Colo rotation at the 1 and 2 could be enough with some extra minutes for Green or Neal if needed, De Colo's playmaking could make him a huge asset here.

KY 30 min + SJax 18 min

3 men rotation of Tim Tiago Diaw

There's obviously a problem at SG imo with Green but unfortunately he won Pop's heart like Bonbon did in the past so I don't expect to be happy with the final PO rotation.

[TrainOfThought5]

I don't understand how Green is a playoff choker, but Splitter isn't. Did we all forget what actually happened in the WCF?

Because Splitter has shown significant improvement in his game this season and Green is still missing layups and dunks at the rim?

Because Greens natural 3pt and defensive streakiness is more likely to be amplified and exploited in the playoffs before Splitters interior presence, interior help, PNR finishing ability, and newfound aggression at the rim??

[Paranoid Pop]

I don't understand how Green is a playoff choker, but Splitter isn't. Did we all forget what actually happened in the WCF?

Regardless of Green level of play, he can be great or terrible in a game so about 15 minutes could be ok for him, who does TP pass the ball to when he's being traped/double teamed in a lineup of TP Green KY Tiago Tim?

[TrainOfThought5]

TP will play 38 min
KY, Manu, Tim should play 30 min at least.
Splitter and Diaw should play 30 as well imo.

TP + 12 minutes of backup PG
Manu + De Colo?

Imo a 3 men Tp Manu De Colo rotation at the 1 and 2 could be enough with some extra minutes for Green or Neal if needed, De Colo's playmaking make him a huge asset here.

KY 30 min + SJax 18 min

3 men rotation of Tim Tiago Diaw

There's obvisouly a problem at SG imo with Green but unfortunately he won Pop's heart like Bonbon did in the past so I don't expect to be happy with the final PO rotation.

See and thats what I dont understand, Kawhi is young, and could play 40 minutes, and Jax isnt THAT old, ~28 minutes should be fine.

I just feel like Kawhi could be a playmaker at 2 guard if we'd let him, allowed by drastically reducing Greens second half minutes between him and a healthy Ginobili. and Jax as our toughest, and possibly most clutch guy, needs more presence in the rotation in the Playoffs.

thanks for your thoughts though, very appreciated.

[Chinook]

Because Splitter has shown significant improvement in his game this season and Green is still missing layups and dunks at the rim?

Because Greens natural 3pt and defensive streakiness is more likely to be amplified and exploited in the playoffs before Splitters interior presence, interior help, PNR finishing ability, and newfound aggression at the rim??

Yeah, because Splitter didn't crack under pressure when Brooks started hacking him....

This is what I mean about people not understanding what happened. The Thunder dared Splitter to beat them at the line, and not only did he step up, but he shot absolutely terribly (well below his season average), because he let them get in his head. That's a much bigger example of choking than shooting terribly from three after being lights out, after being terrible, after being lights out, etc.

Green's actually not a streaky defender, or at least he's not less streaky than anyone else on the team except Duncan. His defensive play played a huge role in sweeping the Clippers. He's made many more clutch plays than players like Neal, for example.

Green has huge problems with things like finishing at the rim. But that doesn't make him any less valuable in the playoffs than players like Neal. The Spurs need him to play and play well if they have any hope of winning this year.

[Chinook]

Regardless of Green level of play, he can be great or terrible in a game so about 15 minutes could be ok for him, who does TP pass the ball to when he's being traped/double teamed in a lineup of TP Green KY Tiago Tim?

He'd pass to the player who was being defended by the doubling man. That's what you're supposed to do when you're double-teamed.

[TrainOfThought5]

Yeah, because Splitter didn't crack under pressure when Brooks started hacking him....

This is what I mean about people not understanding what happened. The Thunder dared Splitter to beat them at the line, and not only did he step up, but he shot absolutely terribly (well below his season average), because he let them get in his head. That's a much bigger example of choking than shooting terribly from three after being lights out, after being terrible, after being lights out, etc.

Green's actually not a streaky defender, or at least he's not less streaky than anyone else on the team except Duncan. His defensive play played a huge role in sweeping the Clippers. He's made many more clutch plays than players like Neal, for example.

Green has huge problems with things like finishing at the rim. But that doesn't make him any less valuable in the playoffs than players like Neal. The Spurs need him to play and play well if they have any hope of winning this year.

That was before Splitter drastically improved his free throw shooting. isnt he shooting 80/90%+ FT in January?

and to say that Green played consistently good defense in last years WCF would have to be a little delusional.... anytime you have to get BENCHED out of a Popovich set rotation in the MIDDLE of playoff series??, it points to something going horribly horribly wrong.

and comparing Green's defense to Neal's?? they dont play the same role on this team at all, nor do they have the same expectations.

[Seventyniner]

It's also rather doubtful that Green would close games if the Spurs are healthy. The big 3 + Leonard and one of Splitter/Jax/Diaw is the most likely closing lineup.

[racm]

Because the best per-minute players on the team are old?

And it's not like the current 9 man rotation has bad players. Green's the guy I'm least confident in with regards to the rotation, because as 48MoH notes he's like the Texas Lottery's All or Nothing game.

[racm]

It's also rather doubtful that Green would close games if the Spurs are healthy. The big 3 + Leonard and one of Splitter/Jax/Diaw is the most likely closing lineup.


Exactly. The closing lineup will be Parker/Ginobili/Leonard/Duncan/Splitter if the need is to get defense or rebounds. If the need is a shot, Jackson's in there for either Leonard or Splitter.

[therealtruth]

I agree we have to rely more on our top 8 players in the playoffs. We have little room for error against a team like the Thunder.

[Brunodf]

Yeah, because Splitter didn't crack under pressure when Brooks started hacking him....

This is what I mean about people not understanding what happened. The Thunder dared Splitter to beat them at the line, and not only did he step up, but he shot absolutely terribly (well below his season average), because he let them get in his head. That's a much bigger example of choking than shooting terribly from three after being lights out, after being terrible, after being lights out, etc.

Green's actually not a streaky defender, or at least he's not less streaky than anyone else on the team except Duncan. His defensive play played a huge role in sweeping the Clippers. He's made many more clutch plays than players like Neal, for example.

Green has huge problems with things like finishing at the rim. But that doesn't make him any less valuable in the playoffs than players like Neal. The Spurs need him to play and play well if they have any hope of winning this year.

Didn't Splitter had a wrist injury in the Utah series?

[Fabbs]

Yeah, because Splitter didn't crack under pressure when Brooks started hacking him....

This is what I mean about people not understanding what happened. The Thunder dared Splitter to beat them at the line, and not only did he step up, but he shot absolutely terribly (well below his season average), because he let them get in his head. That's a much bigger example of choking than shooting terribly from three after being lights out, after being terrible, after being lights out, etc.
yeah, absolute playoff changing bad performance by Splitter. :rolleyes

Game/FTs
3. Splitter 1-2 Duncan 1-2
4. Splitter 0-2 in 6 minutes. Duncan 3-7
5. Splitter 1-2 Spurs as a team 26-31
6. Splitter 1-2 (the complete rip off game by refs)

[TrainOfThought5]

yeah, absolute playoff changing bad performance by Splitter. :rolleyes

Game/FTs
3. Splitter 1-2 Duncan 1-2
4. Splitter 0-2 in 6 minutes. Duncan 3-7
5. Splitter 1-2 Spurs as a team 26-31
6. Splitter 1-2 (the complete rip off game by refs)

posters point is quality. Splitter had bad ft% numbers. but splitter has improved bearly every aspect of his game this season where Danny Green still has the same weaknesses from last year.

[Chinook]

That was before Splitter drastically improved his free throw shooting. isnt he shooting 80/90%+ FT in January?

and to say that Green played consistently good defense in last years WCF would have to be a little delusional.... anytime you have to get BENCHED out of a Popovich set rotation in the MIDDLE of playoff series??, it points to something going horribly horribly wrong.

and comparing Green's defense to Neal's?? they dont play the same role on this team at all, nor do they have the same expectations.

Splitter shot well below his bad, but not horrible percentage in that series. Hack-a-Splitter was a major reason why the Spurs lost most of the end-of-quarter battles in the middle of the series. It's not that he wasn't good a free throws, as he's been a consistent 70-percenter throughout his career. It's that he lost confidence in his shot and missed more than he usually did. Splitter hitting 70 percent of those probably leads to a Spurs' win. Him hitting 50 percent (his average during his slump last year) probably leads to a game 7. But he let Brooks get in his head, and it got so bad that Pop couldn't even keep him on the floor and had to play Duncan more than he should have.
That's worse that Green missing open shots but still averaging an incredibly high percentage in the playoffs over all (42 percent). And Green still had the fewest points allowed/100 possessions in the OKC series for the whole team, so yes, it's completely justifiable to say he was still good in that area. He was pulled because he lost confidence in his shot and was no longer impactful enough on defense to account for his bad offense. That's not the case this year. When I say Green is one of the most-consistent defenders, I mean this year. He's had many games (especially recently) where he scores almost no points and still helps the team. Look back at timvp's recent grades if you don't believe me.

I'm not comparing his defense to Neal's. I'm saying clutch plays in general. He's much more important to the rotation than Neal is.

[Fabbs]

posters point is quality. Splitter had bad ft% numbers.
Sample size is too small son. Two ft's a game, while granted they can be big, is not enough.
In Game 1 when Splittsville went 1-5 from the ft line he counterbalanced that with 4-5 on fgs. 6 boards in only 12 minutes to boot.
Shoot he shot 63% for the series!
Not his fault Sir Asshat sat him on the bench for (allegedly) missing one defensive assignment.
But i agree, he needs to get better on free throws. So does Duncan.


but splitter has improved bearly every aspect of his game this season where Danny Green still has the same weaknesses from last year.
Splitts is a quality big. End of story. Yes lets hope he continues to improve.

[Chinook]

yeah, absolute playoff changing bad performance by Splitter. :rolleyes

Game/FTs
3. Splitter 1-2 Duncan 1-2
4. Splitter 0-2 in 6 minutes. Duncan 3-7
5. Splitter 1-2 Spurs as a team 26-31
6. Splitter 1-2 (the complete rip off game by refs)

I'm not trying to defend Duncan's misses here, either. It's clear that Splitter's bad free-throw percentage (40 percent by my count) is the reason why Pop pulled him and had to run Duncan into the ground. I'm not trying to pass all the blame on Splitter and take all (or really any) from Green, which is what I think most people here think. I apologize for that confusion I'm saying he had a bad series like Green did. His bad moments were in pressure situations, where he performed even worse than he had been. That should be considered choking as much as Green's performance is. But I don't think either should be held to what they do in their first conference finals. They were both very important to the Spurs getting there, and they're both essential this year.

[Chinook]

Splitts is a quality big. End of story. Yes lets hope he continues to improve.

I agree. I hope I'm not coming off as someone who cannibalizes one player to make another look good. I'm just getting tired of hearing people blame one player for a team losing to a team which was supposed to win anyway. I live in Philadelphia, and that's what people here do all the time. It's sickening. I'm trying to be objective with dolling out blame, but sometimes that can come off as scapegoating another player. For that, I apologize.

[Strategic]

Splitter has improved this year, no doubt. The biggest improvement I see is his confidence. Last year vs. OKC he was the subject of a desperation move by Scott Brooks. Brooks put Tiago on the line to stem the Spurs' momentum, he admitted it. Tiago missed the frees, which created a domino effect all the way to rattling Pop's confidence. Splitter and Duncan will be put in the same situation this year in the playoffs, as will Blake Griffin, DeAndre Jordan and, if they make the playoffs, Dwight Howard. Pop had a winning rotation last year but after game 3 of the WCFs he turned from it, and the rest is history.

[Cry Havoc]

Green is going to step up this year in the playoffs. All the haters can get lost. One bad playoff series should not anoint him as a choker for life.

[look_at_g_shred]

Green is going to step up this year in the playoffs. All the haters can get lost. One bad playoff series should not anoint him as a choker for life.

I love Green don't get me wrong. On offensive to me, he seems really one sided. If his three's aren't falling he passes the ball. He doesn't have any other moves. He doesn't drive the ball and when he does it gets swiped and the team is running the other way. I would love if he could drive and finish at the rim. Keep the defender guessing.

[superbigtime]

Not worried about Splitter. I think last year in playoffs he let physical play get to him and started pandering for refs to make foul calls which never came. He got flustered. There more he has played this year, the more I can see that he has matured upstairs. If he's in the game, he will defend and produce. Green I trust more than Bonner to make a pressure shot, but not by much. I trust Jack more than Green.

[superbigtime]

I love Green don't get me wrong. On offensive to me, he seems really one sided. If his three's aren't falling he passes the ball. He doesn't have any other moves. He doesn't drive the ball and when he does it gets swiped and the team is running the other way. I would love if he could drive and finish at the rim. Keep the defender guessing.

Hopefully this will become Kawai's move.

[Cry Havoc]

I love Green don't get me wrong. On offensive to me, he seems really one sided. If his three's aren't falling he passes the ball. He doesn't have any other moves. He doesn't drive the ball and when he does it gets swiped and the team is running the other way. I would love if he could drive and finish at the rim. Keep the defender guessing.

And we all know how badly a 3 point specialist impacted our chance of winning with Bowen. Green is already more flexible on offense than Bowen ever was.

[capek]

I love Green don't get me wrong. On offensive to me, he seems really one sided. If his three's aren't falling he passes the ball. He doesn't have any other moves. He doesn't drive the ball and when he does it gets swiped and the team is running the other way. I would love if he could drive and finish at the rim. Keep the defender guessing.

That's overly bleak. So far this year Green has shown an ability to but the ball on the floor and pull up for the mid range shot when he's run off the three point line, and he's shown that he can dish off the PnR to the big (Tiago). So he has developed his offensive game this year, even though he's still quite iffy at the rim and on the break. There's also been a few games recently where his shot was totally off, but he still played really good defense. A scrub will tend to lose focus on all aspects of a game when one is not going well for him, so Danny has at least shown some signs of learning how to contribute even when his shot isn't falling.

For all intents and purposes he's a second year player, it's just that it's taken him about 4 years to get to that point. So when you moderate your expectations to take that into account, I think it's more justified to say that Green has shown some real promise, and could potentially be a solid piece if he can put all he's learned together for when the playoffs roll around.

[Sean Cagney]

And we all know how badly a 3 point specialist impacted our chance of winning with Bowen. Green is already more flexible on offense than Bowen ever was.
Yes he is I agree, too bad he is not half the defender who could lock down 1-3 spots and sometimes 4's lol! I would take a Bowen back at any rate. Green is better on O though.

[cd021]

I don't understand how Green is a playoff choker, but Splitter isn't. Did we all forget what actually happened in the WCF?

He missed freethrows when hacked, ...your point being?

[Chinook]

He missed freethrows when hacked, ...your point being?

That's just as much (if not more) of a choke job than missing low-percentage threes. We went over that up thread.

[Fabbs]

I agree. I hope I'm not coming off as someone who cannibalizes one player to make another look good. I'm just getting tired of hearing people blame one player for a team losing to a team which was supposed to win anyway. I live in Philadelphia, and that's what people here do all the time. It's sickening. I'm trying to be objective with dolling out blame, but sometimes that can come off as scapegoating another player. For that, I apologize.
I didn't take your post that way but appreciate your follow up. I did want to keep Splitts ft bricks in perspective and i hope he and Duncan continue to work on them. Splitter is finally getting extended minutes alongside Duncs and we saw the results last night vs Golden.

The cannibalizing (good one :lol ) of one player is indeed ill. Blair comes in with no ACLs, leads or is top 5 in rebounds per minute for two seasons, wins 70% of his starts, give Timmy Duncs some WAY overdue paint support after Lord Poppycock had the audacity to march out Mike Finley, Dick Jeff and or Matty Bonner at the power forward spot. Now Blairs knees are probably shot and how does ST Spurfan thank him? Cannibal stew. It's bullshit.

[AFBlue]

If I read the OP right, the argument here is to shorten the rotation during the season so the playoff rotation is set going in. If so, I'm on the opposite end of the spectrum...

Spurs should maximize their depth during the regular season to limit minutes of the valuable contributors and prevent the possibility of unecessary injury. I would also argue that depending on the early playoff matchups, the Spurs should stick with a deeper rotation.

The reason I think it'll work this year (as opposed to last year) is that the Spurs return a group of valuable contributors that have a full season together. And though Pop is limiting their minutes, it's not as if that grouping of players has never shared the floor for extended minutes.

I do think that the Spurs need to settle on the backup PG and utilize the fourth big role more prominently (if they had a good option that is), but I don't see the answer as shortening the rotation and gettting rid of those roles altogether.

[therealtruth]

I didn't take your post that way but appreciate your follow up. I did want to keep Splitts ft bricks in perspective and i hope he and Duncan continue to work on them. Splitter is finally getting extended minutes alongside Duncs and we saw the results last night vs Golden.

The cannibalizing (good one :lol ) of one player is indeed ill. Blair comes in with no ACLs, leads or is top 5 in rebounds per minute for two seasons, wins 70% of his starts, give Timmy Duncs some WAY overdue paint support after Lord Poppycock had the audacity to march out Mike Finley, Dick Jeff and or Matty Bonner at the power forward spot. Now Blairs knees are probably shot and how does ST Spurfan thank him? Cannibal stew. It's bullshit.

You're forgetting how bad of a defender Blair was. That's the reason he was originally yanked from the starting lineup. Pop didn't think his defense would be good enough for the playoffs.

[TD 21]

With Duncan's resurgence and Tony's MVP-esque performance, would it be possible to squeeze more minutes out of our stars

Of course it would be possible. The question is, is it necessary? I agree that the odd game, he needs to let them play the type of minutes he does when their backs are up against the wall in the playoffs. But generally speaking, it's not necessary. They're the best regular season team in the league the past two and a half seasons.


and limit the rotation to our most consistent Role Players, thereby augmenting the benefits of our internal improvements and thereby creating a better playoff team?

He's done this though. He's got Splitter starting and playing minutes more commensurate with his production and instead of relying on the fools gold spacing that Bonner provides and the fools gold relatively productive minutes Blair provides, he's had both out of the rotation for a while now.


any thoughts on what those extended minutes would look like if we went with a playoff rotation consisting primarily of: TP/KL/MG/TD/TS/SJ/GN/BD(?)

Yes. I'm putting Green back in though, for the simple fact that he will be in it (and deserves to be).

Obviously no one can say for certain, because it depends on a variety of factors, but in terms of an estimate, presuming it's not an elimination game and is at least relatively close throughout . . .

PF - Splitter (18 mpg), Diaw (24 mpg), Jackson (6 mpg)
SF - Leonard (30 mpg), Jackson (18 mpg)
C - Duncan (36 mpg), Splitter (12 mpg)
SG - Green (18 mpg), Ginobili (30 mpg)
PG - Parker (38 mpg), Neal (10 mpg)

[Brunodf]

Obviously no one can say for certain, because it depends on a variety of factors, but in terms of an estimate, presuming it's not an elimination game and is at least relatively close throughout . . .

PF - Splitter (18 mpg), Diaw (24 mpg), Jackson (6 mpg)
SF - Leonard (30 mpg), Jackson (18 mpg)
C - Duncan (36 mpg), Splitter (12 mpg)
SG - Green (18 mpg), Ginobili (20 mpg), Kawhi(10 mpg)
PG - Parker (38 mpg), Ginobili (10 mpg)

Fixed