Halfway through: a look at the stats

[Seventyniner]

Halfway through the season, the Spurs stand at 30-11. 3rd in the West, 1st in the Southwest division, on pace for 60 wins. Considering the injuries to Manu, Jax, and Kawhi, I would say the first half has been pretty successful. The stats back this up: 3rd in scoring margin, 17-2 at home, just 3 games out (in the loss column) of 1st place.

A deeper look at the stats will tell us a bit more, though. I have compiled stats for last year and this year from www.basketball-reference.com (http://www.basketball-reference.com) for the main competitors to the Spurs: Thunder, Clippers, Grizzlies, and Heat. I'll throw in the Lakers, last year's Bulls, and this year's Knicks for flavor.

First, an explanation of the "four factors" for those unfamiliar with them can be found here: http://www.basketball-reference.com/about/factors.html. Put simply, four things statistically explain a team's performance. They are weighted by importance, or how much of team performance each factor explains. Each of the four factors has an offensive and defensive component. I looked at those, plus the league ranks, for the aforementioned teams.
Effective shooting percentage (eFG%) - percentage of shots made; counts 3s as 1.5 times as much as 2s. 40% weight.
Turnover percentage (TOV%) - the percentage of the time a team turns the ball over. 25% weight.
Rebound percentage (RB%) - the percentage of available rebounds a team gets. 20% weight.
Free throw attempts per field goal attempt (FT/FGA) - how many free throws a team shoots per field goal attempt. 15% weight.

We also have offensive rating (ORtg) and defensive rating (DRtg), which give an overall picture of how good a team is on offense and defense.

OVERALL STATS
(league rank in parentheses)


TEAM
Year
MOV
SOS
SRS
ORtg
DRtg
Rtg diff
Pace


SA
2013
8.39 (3)
0.68 (5)
9.07 (1)
109.6 (5)
100.8 (3)
8.8 (3)
94.4 (3)


OC
2013
9.44 (1)
-0.42 (21)
9.02 (3)
113.0 (1)
102.9 (6)
10.1 (1)
92.5 (8)


LAC
2013
8.98 (2)
0.07 (13)
9.04 (2)
110.5 (4)
100.8 (3)
9.7 (2)
91.9 (11)


MEM
2013
3.32 (6)
0.84 (3)
4.17 (6)
104.2 (15)
100.5 (2)
3.7 (6)
89.1 (28)


LAL
2013
1.64 (12)
0.65 (6)
2.29 (9)
108.4 (7)
106.6 (21)
1.8 (11)
94.9 (2)


MIA
2013
5.42 (4)
-0.27 (18)
5.15 (4)
110.7 (3)
104.8 (12)
5.9 (4)
91.4 (18)


NY
2013
4.97 (5)
-0.42 (21)
4.56 (5)
111.4 (2)
106.0 (16)
5.4 (5)
90.8 (22)


Average
2013
0
0
0
105.3
105.3
0
91.7


SA
2012
7.17 (2)
0.11 (15)
7.28 (2)
110.9 (1)
103.2 (10)
7.7 (2)
92.9 (7)


OC
2012
6.12 (3)
0.32 (11)
6.44 (3)
109.8 (2)
103.2 (10)
6.6 (3)
93.0 (6)


LAC
2012
2.56 (10)
2.56 (14)
2.82 (7)
108.5 (4)
105.7 (18)
2.8 (10)
89.2 (26)


MEM
2012
2.02 (12)
0.42 (7)
2.43 (10)
104.0 (19)
101.8 (7)
2.2 (12)
90.8 (18)


LAL
2012
1.42 (13)
0.54 (5)
1.96 (13)
106.0 (10)
104.4 (13)
1.6 (13)
90.5 (20)


MIA
2012
5.98 (4)
-0.27 (19)
5.72 (4)
106.6 (8)
100.2 (4)
6.4 (4)
91.2 (15)


CHI
2012
8.18 (1)
-0.76 (28)
7.43 (1)
107.4 (5)
98.3 (2)
9.1 (1)
89.1 (28)


Average
2012
0
0
0
104.6
104.6
0
91.3



Observations


Obviously the top three teams in the league are the Spurs, Clippers, and Thunder. The separation in SRS from #3 LAC (9.04) to #4 MIA (5.15) is astounding. Equally astounding is how close the top three teams are. The #1 seed is an especially big prize this year, forcing the other two in the top 3 to play in the second round.
The Spurs are showing signs of an elite defense, even with the injury troubles so far with Kawhi and Manu (Jax just doesn't play that many minutes). They are also playing at warp speed, just recently falling out of second in pace (to the Lakers of all teams).
The Thunder have a great rating differential, but by far the weakest SOS in the West.
The Clippers have been amazing since a so-so start. It's easy to count them out by how they lost in last year's playoffs, but top 4 in both offense and defense is championship-level play.
The Grizzlies are playing better than last year, and against a tougher schedule. Their defense is no joke, as we've seen. I didn't realize the snail's pace they play at, but considering all of their shot clock violations in Wednesday's beatdown, I see why.
The Lakers are actually better this year than last year based on SRS. Their defense has fallen off a cliff, but the offense has made enough strides to keep pace. I am still surprised at how slow the Grizzlies play, but that's mainly due to not watching them much. I am much less surprised at the Lakers' increase in pace. Just look at who their coach is.
Miami has similar overall stats to last year. Like the Lakers, their defense is worse (hard to do when you play an East-heavy schedule), but the offense has improved enough to keep the differential about the same.
I firmly believe that Chicago would have, at the very least, pushed Miami to 7 in the ECF last year if Rose hadn't gone down, and the Bulls probably would have won that series. They were beastly in the regular season.
The Knicks this year are a bit of an anomaly. This will come up later, too. They have an awesome offense, middling defense, but play somewhat slow. If it wasn't for that last part, I would think _'Antoni was still coaching there.
The league average ORtg went up from 104.6 last year to 105.3 this year so far. This makes the defensive jumps of the Spurs (and especially the Clippers) noteworthy.


FOUR FACTORS
(league rank in parentheses)

TEAM
Year
O eFG%
D eFG%
eFG% diff
O TOV%
D TOV%
TOV% diff
ORB%
DRB%
Total RB%
O FT/FGA
D FT/FGA
FT/FGA diff


SA
2013
.541 (2)
.474 (4)
.067 (1)
14.5 (28)
13.7 (13)
-0.8 (22)
21.4 (28)
74.5 (7)
95.9 (27)
.200 (19)
.183 (5)
.017 (8)


OC
2013
.528 (3)
.472 (3)
.056 (3)
14.7 (29)
13.6 (14)
-1.1 (23)
27.3 (16)
73.4 (13)
100.7 (14)
.285 (1)
.201 (14)
.084 (1)


LAC
2013
.522 (4)
.474 (4)
.048 (4)
13.7 (14)
15.9 (1)
2.2 (2)
28.5 (11)
72.2 (24)
100.7 (14)
.216 (10)
.226 (26)
-.010 (17)


MEM
2013
.464 (25)
.481 (8)
-.017 (21)
13.9 (15)
15.6 (2)
1.7 (3)
31.8 (2)
73.7 (11)
105.5 (2)
.208 (12)
.205 (17)
.003 (13)


LAL
2013
.511 (7)
.494 (17)
.017 (7)
14.1 (23)
14.0 (8)
-0.1 (15)
28.9 (10)
73.3 (15)
102.2 (8)
.240 (2)
.179 (1)
.061 (2)


MIA
2013
.542 (1)
.484 (10)
.058 (2)
13.3 (7)
14.0 (8)
0.7 (8)
20.9 (30)
72.3 (21)
93.2 (30)
.219 (9)
.205 (17)
.014 (9)


NY
2013
.512 (6)
.505 (26)
.007 (12)
10.8 (1)
14.8 (4)
4.0 (1)
24.9 (22)
74.7 (5)
99.6 (18)
.193 (23)
.210 (19)
-.020 (19)


Average
2013
.491
.491
0
13.7
13.7
0
27.0
73.0
100
.205
.205
0


SA
2012
.528 (1)
.489 (15)
.039 (4)
12.8 (3)
12.9 (24)
0.1 (17)
25.1 (24)
76.0 (1)
101.1 (10)
.195 (19)
.168 (2)
.027 (7)


OC
2012
.516 (2)
.465 (3)
.051 (1)
15.3 (30)
13.0 (23)
-2.3 (29)
27.8 (10)
72.1 (23)
99.9 (18)
.269 (1)
.207 (16)
.062 (2)


LAC
2012
.502 (7)
.492 (20)
.010 (10)
12.7 (2)
14.2 (8)
1.5 (4)
29.5 (4)
73.2 (14)
102.7 (4)
.195 (19)
.245 (29)
-.050 (29)


MEM
2012
.473 (24)
.485 (12)
-.012 (21)
13.6 (15)
16.3 (1)
2.7 (1)
29.8 (3)
72.7 (19)
102.5 (5)
.211 (10)
.227 (25)
-.016 (21)


LAL
2012
.491 (13)
.476 (6)
.015 (9)
14.2 (20)
10.7 (30)
-3.5 (30)
29.1 (6)
74.8 (5)
103.9 (3)
.226 (8)
.158 (1)
.068 (1)


MIA
2012
.505 (5)
.479 (8)
.026 (5)
14.5 (24)
15.8 (3)
1.3 (5)
26.6 (18)
73.9 (10)
100.5 (15)
.238 (4)
.200 (12)
.038 (5)


CHI
2012
.490 (14)
.450 (1)
.040 (3)
13.2 (8)
12.8 (26)
-0.4 (20)
32.6 (1)
74.3 (8)
106.9 (1)
.184 (26)
.175 (3)
.009 (10)


Average
2012
.487
.487
0
13.8
13.8
0
27.0
73.0
100
.208
.208
0



Observations

Sample size might seem to be an issue, but there have been about 40 games for each team so far, and only 66 last year, so the sample size difference isn't that big.
The jump in eFG% league-wide is noteworthy, but the increase at the top is crazy. O eFG% of .516 was good enough for 2nd place last year, but wouldn't even be top 5 this year (Houston is #5 at .518). The Heat and Spurs at just over .540 is just eye-popping.
The Spurs have greatly decreased their D eFG%, which is the biggest reason for their jump in DRtg from 10th to 3rd. The eFG% differential of .067 is also huge; .051 led the league last year. An even bigger jump is the Clippers, from .492 (20) to .474 (4).
The Thunder have addressed half of their biggest weakness: turnovers. They're still near the bottom because they commit a lot of turnovers, but they're starting to force more on defense, leading to a small negative differential.
The Spurs' drop from #3 in O TOV% to #28 is alarming. Given their pace, that's .944 * (14.5 - 12.8) = 1.6 turnovers per game more than last year. At least they're doing a better job of forcing turnovers (#24 to #13), so the differential isn't too bad.
We're used to the Spurs being bad on offensive rebounds, but they're taking it to new lows this year. 21.4 ORB% against a league average of 27.0% is horrendous. I know it's mostly by design, but you can't just give away defensive rebounds. The concerning slip in DRB%, though it has gotten better over the last several weeks), leads to a total RB% of 95.9.
More about rebounding: total RB% correlates much more highly with ORB% than DRB%, so even improving DRB% to #1 (Minnesota, 75.5) for the Spurs would only raise total RB% by 1, only bumping them to #24.
Even more about rebounding: as alarming as the Spurs' rebounding numbers are, the Heat are even worse. They get very few offensive rebounds and are subpar on DRB%, leading to a dead last ranking in total RB%. Last year's Celtics were even worse. Needless to say, the Celtics did great last year and nobody is really worried about the Heat. Just goes to show that one factor by itself won't sink you, and rebounding is only weighted at 20% for a reason.
The Clippers hawk the damn ball, and even only watching a couple of Clippers games (including last night) makes that plain.
The Grizzlies are going to have a very hard time winning when they shoot so poorly. Their rebounding and turnover prowess is what's keeping them in the hunt for a division title, but they won't get far without shooters.
D eFG% tells the story of the Lakers' decline (and the Clippers' meteoric rise). It's still surprising, though, to see a team that ranks 7th, 15th, 8th, and 2nd in the differential categories sitting at 5 games below .500.
As I mentioned in another thread, the Thunder's FT/FGA differential is the highest seen in the last 10 years; next-highest is the Thunder from 2010-2011. It might be slightly overstated, though, because it's FT/FGA and not FT/possession, so turning the ball over a lot like the Thunder do inflates FT/FGA somewhat.
The Spurs have doppelgangers for each factor: the Thunder for eFG% and TOV%, and the Heat for RB% and FT/FGA. It's kind of eerie.


I know that stats don't tell the whole story, but as you watch games, this might give you some context to what you're seeing. Fellow Spurs fans, enjoy what you've seen this season and can anticipate for the remainder, including crisp passing, great shooting, a much-improved defense. In addition, know that those frustrating turnovers and lack of offensive rebounds probably aren't going to change much; the team is what it is, and while I would love to see them improve the weaknesses, no team is perfect.

I'll do this again at the end of the season, and if enough people want me to, I'll take another look in the middle of March when teams get to around the 66-game mark, the same number of games played as last season.

Enjoy!

[Brunodf]

Great stuff, thanks.

[Cry Havoc]

Spurs should honestly sag against the Grizzlies. They can't really extend beyond 20ft to hit shots. They have several guys who can knock down that med-long range J but we don't need to guard them out to/past the three point line. Consolidate the defense against Memphis and force them to hit longer shots. And body Gasol past the FT line.

[Richie]

Very interesting, good read.

[quentin_compson]

Thanks for the write-up. Interesting that of the seven teams you listed, only two (Grizzlies and Lakers) are in the top 10 when it comes to the overall RB %.

[BG_Spurs_Fan]

Impressive write-up. Thanks. Hopefully it generates a bigger discussion.

[Chinook]

That was an awesome piece. Thanks a lot for the good work. (It looks like you've impressed timvp.)

The Spurs have been an elite team this whole season, but some people get too hung up on the results of a single game. Their rebounding is a real concern against the west's elites, but it shouldn't be a problem against the Heat. Diaw needs to rebound consistently. He's shown he can do it. Starting Splitter with Duncan seems to have hurt their total rebounding numbers (they haven't both had too many good rebounding games at the same time). Hopefully, Baynes gets a chance to play this season. If he can come out of the gates and rebound like Blair did as a rookie, that'd be a huge boost.

[Chinook]

What's weird is that the most successful rebounding tandems have very few common players. The group with the top RB% is Neal-Ginobili-Jackson-Diaw-Splitter, which surprises the hell out of me, but I'll chaulk it up to the bench being among the best in the league when Blair was starting. The next best is Parker-Green-Jackson-Blair-Duncan, so that's the starting unit without Leonard, which doesn't have the biggest sample size out there. Then you have a common closing line up Parker-Ginobili-Leonard-Diaw-Duncan and then the current starting unit.

I think part of the reason why the Spurs aren't as good at rebounding this year is Blair's ineffectiveness and subsequent benching. He was a beast on the offensive boards, and having him kept the Spurs decent on that end while at the same time allowed them to follow Pop's philosophy of getting back after a missed shot. With out him playing like he did the first two year, there's no one around to get lucky putbacks. Leonard used to do that as a rookie, but it'd be hard for him to play the Blair role, because he often guards the opposing team's best perimeter player, whom he obviously can't leave unattended. If Baynes gets to play, then we should be able to see if he helps the RB%.

[elemento]

Nice stuff Seven :tu

What gives us some hope comparing this team to last season is the fact that SA is good both offensively and defensively. That was not the case last season.

[wildbill2u]

I looked at the same stats the other day and wanted to put them on Spurs Talk but didn't know quite how to do it while keeping the formatting in place. I'm really glad to see this on Spurs Talk because it should shut up some of the critics about regular season fools gold.

After all, were almost at the half-way mark and clearly among the leaders. On NBA-TV Charles Barkley gave us some love and said we were the second best team in the league and explained by pointing out some weaknesses of the Clippers and Heat. Anything can happen in a 7 game series as we all have reason to know, but this Spurs team deserves some respect and the stats prove it.

[Russ]

Great work. This provides some hope for the Spurs' playoff chances this year, i.e., upgraded defense.

My one criticism is the stat called "Effective shooting percentage (eFG%) - percentage of shots made; counts 3s as 1.5 times as much as 2s. 40% weight."

I think a better stat to evaluate defensive prowess would be just the opposite -- the raw 2 point FG% against with no consideration of 3 point FG% at all.

That's the stat that will define defensive toughness in the playoffs IMO.

[exstatic]

Great work. This provides some hope for the Spurs' playoff chances this year, i.e., upgraded defense.

My one criticism is the stat called "Effective shooting percentage (eFG%) - percentage of shots made; counts 3s as 1.5 times as much as 2s. 40% weight."

I think a better stat to evaluate defensive prowess would be just the opposite -- the raw 2 point FG% against with no consideration of 3 point FG% at all.

That's the stat that will define defensive toughness in the playoffs IMO.

Uh, no. Ignoring 3 pointers does NOT give a clearer picture of playoff defensive prowess. Just the opposite. If the Grizz had ignored our 3 point shots and only concentrated on tough contests on twos, we would have won in 5 games. It was EXACTLY their decision to contest ALL three pointers, especially the corners, and give us everything else that led to the ouster of the Spurs from the playoffs in 2011.

Not to belabor the obvious, but you do realize that the score value of a 3 pointer is EXACTLY 1.5 times that of a 2 pointer, right? It's not a bias, it's reality. When someone like Bonner shoots 40% from beyond the arc, that is effectively like having a brute like DeAndre Jordan shooting 60% in the paint, minus everything being clogged for Tim and our penetrators.

[Russ]

Uh, no. Ignoring 3 pointers does NOT give a clearer picture of playoff defensive prowess. Just the opposite. If the Grizz had ignored our 3 point shots and only concentrated on tough contests on twos, we would have won in 5 games. It was EXACTLY their decision to contest ALL three pointers, especially the corners, and give us everything else that led to the ouster of the Spurs from the playoffs in 2011.

Not to belabor the obvious, but you do realize that the score value of a 3 pointer is EXACTLY 1.5 times that of a 2 pointer, right? It's not a bias, it's reality. When someone like Bonner shoots 40% from beyond the arc, that is effectively like having a brute like DeAndre Jordan shooting 60% in the paint, minus everything being clogged for Tim and our penetrators.

I'll take my chances getting beat by threes, thank you.

Just say nice shooting and say we'll see you in Game 2.

And, yeah, I do know that the Grizz 3 point shooting was big in '11 and Harden went off from 3 last year. But the reason that happened, Mr. X, is that the 2 point defense was so bad -- the Spurs were getting beat up so bad inside -- that the Spurs had to adjust (commit more to the rim) thus opening the 3s. So no I don't buy your point. Simply put, it all starts with effective 2 point D, even effective 3 point D.

[therealtruth]

Uh, no. Ignoring 3 pointers does NOT give a clearer picture of playoff defensive prowess. Just the opposite. If the Grizz had ignored our 3 point shots and only concentrated on tough contests on twos, we would have won in 5 games. It was EXACTLY their decision to contest ALL three pointers, especially the corners, and give us everything else that led to the ouster of the Spurs from the playoffs in 2011.

Not to belabor the obvious, but you do realize that the score value of a 3 pointer is EXACTLY 1.5 times that of a 2 pointer, right? It's not a bias, it's reality. When someone like Bonner shoots 40% from beyond the arc, that is effectively like having a brute like DeAndre Jordan shooting 60% in the paint, minus everything being clogged for Tim and our penetrators.

The reason the Grizzlies strategy worked in '11 is the Spurs don't have a in-between game. Outside of the big 3 not many of the Spurs have a midrange game. The Spurs strategy was to try to hope they could be faster and quicker than the Grizzlies and still get those penetrations or open 3's.

[exstatic]

I'll take my chances getting beat by threes, thank you.

Then you'll lose. That's the NBA now. I'll take my chances on Ibaka and Perk NOT hitting 18-20 or whatever ridiculous number they put up in that game.

[Amuseddaysleeper]

The defensive improvement is great for the Spurs this year, but it would be shocking to see them get to the WCF (unless they get the top seed and avoid LAC/OKC in the 2nd round).

At the end of the day when you start running into the Kevin Durants of the league you can only do so much.

I'm going to enjoy the run while it lasts and anything the Spurs do if they get past the 2nd round is gravy at this point.

Oh, and excellent write up :tu

[therealtruth]

Then you'll lose. That's the NBA now. I'll take my chances on Ibaka and Perk NOT hitting 18-20 or whatever ridiculous number they put up in that game.

Defense can make a huge difference on jump shots but not so much on 3pt's. There's really no such thing as good 3pt fg% defense if you look at the stats. The best 3pt defense is to limit attempts and run guys of the line. On the other hand you can do more to guarantee guys will miss 2pt shots by contesting them. Also, in rhythm 2pt shots that are open have a much greater chance of going in. Good players are going to hit 75-80% of those.

[Drz]

Defense can make a huge difference on jump shots but not so much on 3pt's. There's really no such thing as good 3pt defense if you look at that stats. The best 3pt defense is to limit attempts and run guys of the line. On the other hand you can do more to guarantee guys will miss 2pt shots by contesting them. Also, in rhythm 2pt shots that are open have a much greater chance of going in. Good players are going to hit 75-80% of those.
I can't tell if I agree... you say there's no such thing as good 3pt defense (false imo), and then say the best 3pt defense is to limit attempts and run guys off the line (mostly true imo). To me, that IS good 3 pt defense.

In particular, shot location has a HUGE impact on 3pts made. Corner 3's are made at 42.5% clip, straight-up 3's at 38.8%, and wing 3's at 34.9%. That's a big difference. Source: http://www.82games.com/locations.htm

To your point though, the difference in open spot up shots (like 3's) vs. contested shots is lower than it is for most other shots.

http://www.d3coder.com/thecity/wp-content/uploads/2012/10/Fig1.png

[racm]

Part of the Spurs' defensive renaissance can be explained by the fact that Duncan is blocking shots at a career high rate (seriously, his BLK% is better than even his prime season) and that they've improved from the bottom half in 3P% to the best team at defending 3 points, at least before the Atlanta game (though that should drop us to 2nd behind Indiana at worst). It also helps that they're forcing the most turnovers in the Gregg Popovich era, mostly because Leonard has been given the green light to ball hawk.

Mid range shots are always going to be the death of San Antonio, but they're not worth more than a layup. The key is to continue keeping opponents off the line; the Thunder essentially win games by drawing fouls like crazy (and imagine if they kept Harden instead and still netted Martin).

[timvp]

Great work, Seventyniner :tu

[Ed Helicopter Jones]

The turnovers are definitely a concern, but also something I can see the Spurs correcting by the end of the season. Just theorizing here, but I'd bet the lack of a back-up point guard has contributed to the turnovers, as well as the fact that more of the offense is flowing through the frontcourt players this year (Duncan/Splitter). SJax dribbling the ball at all probably contributes to that, too. :)

[ElNono]

Thanks for sharing, Seven