Mr.Bottomtooth
01-22-2013, 12:01 PM
http://www.sheridanhoops.com/2013/01/22/eisenberg-examining-tim-duncans-astounding-ft-improvement/3/
Eisenberg: Examining Tim Duncan’s astounding FT improvement
By Jacob Eisenberg
January 22, 2013 at 11:50 AM
Tim Duncan is a horrible pretty darn bad free throw shooter. If you’ve been following the NBA for the past decade and a half, you have probably come to accept that truism.
Except for one thing:
It isn’t true anymore.
It’s not even close to true. It is, in fact, astoundingly untrue this season.
Duncan went to the free throw line four times in San Antonio’s 90-85 victory over the Philadelphia 76ers on Monday, and he knocked down all four.
That perfect performance bumped his season percentage up to .826, ranking him 39th in the league. And Monday marked the 20th consecutive game in which Duncan has not missed more than one free throw — an astounding string for a player whose struggles from the line earlier in his career were viewed as his defining deficiency.
Duncan has been perfect from the line in 16 games — all of which have come since Nov. 23 in the Spurs’ 13th game of the season. He is ranked higher, percentage-wise, than Tony Parker, Luol Deng, Danilo Gallinari, Russell Westbrook, Paul George and J.R. Smith – all of whom have made more than 80 percent of their attempts.
What’s up with this transformation?
“I have done nothing to change my shot at the line. I really do not know what it is,” said Duncan, a career 69 percent shooter who bottomed out at .599 in 2003-04.
Although there was another moment when he bottomed out even worse, on the NBA’s biggest stage.
___
On June 19th, 2005, the San Antonio Spurs were a minute of basketball away from taking a commanding 3-2 lead over the Detroit Pistons in the NBA Finals at the Palace of Auburn Hills. With an 88-87 lead and with Duncan at the free throw line for two shots, Spurs fans had to like their chances of pulling out the victory.
Then, something bizarre happened: the ever-composed Duncan lost total control. Already having missed his first three free throw attempts of the fourth period, Duncan stood at the line with a minute left and helplessly missed his next two free shots.
When he returned to the line with an opportunity to give his team the lead with 34 seconds left, Duncan missed another crucial free throw to mark six consecutive missed shots.
A game that the Spurs should have won handily was forced into overtime.
Had it not been for Spurs’ forward Robert “Big Shot Bob” Horry’s heroic 3-pointer with 5.8 seconds to steal the win from Detroit, the Pistons would have won Game 5 of the finals and probably would have gone on to win the 2005 NBA Championship in large part to Duncan’s 4-for-11 night at the line.
After the game, Duncan called his performance “an absolute nightmare” to the media. It was the first (and perhaps the only) time Duncan has looked mortal on the NBA’s largest stage.
But that was a long time ago.
___
Over the course of history, it has been a common occurrence for poor free throw shooters to improve their free throw percentages throughout their NBA careers.
Karl Malone, for example, shot only 48% from the free throw line as a rookie. However, Malone became a 70 percent free throw shooter by his third year in the league and shot worse than 70 percent only once more in his 19-year career.
In Malone’s case, his poor free throw shooting was due to a combination of a lack of confidence and poor form. Both of these issues were easily corrected as he matured mentally and physically into an NBA star.
However, for already decent free throw shooters, improving free throws is another matter entirely.
Without identifiable issues in mentality or form, it is hard for coaches to point out something tangible for the shooters to correct. Consequently, in nearly every case, decent free throw shooters do not improve nor regress throughout their careers. They merely remain decent.
This trend is what makes Duncan’s sudden improvement at the line so fascinating. Duncan, at age 36, has finally broken out of the “decent” category and is becoming a consistent converter at the line. In fact, Duncan is on pace to do what only two players in NBA history (Kevin Willis in 1998, Jamal Mashburn in 2001) have done before him: improve his free throw percentage by 13% or greater from his career average.
For the past 15 years, Duncan has dominated the NBA. With four championships and career averages of 20+ points and 11+ rebounds a night, it is safe to anoint Duncan as the most unheralded superstar in league history. While he has been the epitome of consistency throughout his career with both high efficiency and unique durability for a big man (Duncan has never played fewer than 58 games in a full season), merely decent free throw shooting has always been the lone blemish on Duncan’s otherwise pristine resume.
Though he has never been a consistent albatross like Shaquille O’Neal at the line, Duncan has not exactly been Steve Nash when it comes to cashing in on his free shots either.
“Opponents have never fouled him expecting him to miss,” said third-year teammate Gary Neal. “For a big man, his free throw shooting has never been great but it is not like it has not been bad.”
But for stars of Duncan’s caliber, greatness is expected in all facets of the game. And if one were to nitpick on Duncan, his subpar free throw shooting is an easy target. Consider this: over his 15 years with the Spurs, Duncan has left nearly 2,500 points unfulfilled at the line.
This season, however, the script has been flipped. While teams have historically lived with fouling Duncan in the post and sending him to the free throw line, opponents now have to be extra careful in defending Duncan in the paint. If they guard him cautiously, he will score over you. However, if you defend him over-aggressively — more times than not — Duncan will reward his team with two points at the line.
The 82 percent Duncan is shooting is perhaps the biggest upgrade for San Antonio this season. After all, Duncan has not made over 73% of his free throws since the 2001-2002 season. This year, improved free throw shooting has led to Duncan scoring more points a game than he has since 2009-2010.
So why, at 36 years old, does it appear that Duncan has finally mastered the art of free throw shooting? The truth is, no one knows.
Or is saying with any specificity.
Tony Parker, Duncan’s longtime All-Star teammate, can only suspect that Duncan is shooting better from the line because he has changed his mentality.
“He is shooting with a lot of confidence. When I first came into the league, he was shooting great from the line too. He has had some off years recently but that is how it is. Free throws can come and go.”
Interestingly, Neal suspects that Duncan’s improvement at the line comes in direct relation with the 36-year-old’s aging body: “Free throw shooting is the one aspect of his game that he can improve without a lot of wear and tear in training. I think his improvement comes from practicing and working with the shooting coach Chip Engelland over the summer. He is focusing better at the line. He is shooting it great. It is just another credit to him being a Hall of Famer and having a great work ethic.”
While the Spurs have collectively noticed Duncan’s improvements at the line, no one ever doubted Duncan and his ability to become a strong free throw shooter. Head Coach Gregg Popovich said, “I think it is great. I am not surprised.”
So, come crunch time, does Duncan’s added efficiency at the line make him even more of a focal point in the offense? Not necessarily…
As Parker said with a smile, “I am going to feed Tim regardless of his free throw shooting. He is our go-to-guy.”
Still, the career-high free throw percentage has to add some confidence to the team’s morale toward the end of games.
So as Duncan continues to shoot his free throws with the most confident stroke of his career, memories of Game 5 of the 2005 NBA Finals are growing more distant by the day.
To put things in historical perspective, check out this chart from weaksideawareness.com:
“OK, let’s start with basics, I downloaded a file from basketballreference.com with historical data and I compared FT% in every season after 5th [with minimum 150 free throw attempts] to Free Throw Percentage based on all combined makes and attempts at this point of player’s career. And here are the results…
Player year Season ftm fta FT% to-date-FTM to-date-FTA to-date-FT% Sudden jump by
Chris Webber 1999 7 311 414 75,12 799 1477 54,10 21,02
Dale Davis 1999 9 139 203 68,47 882 1729 51,01 17,46
Dale Davis 2001 11 150 212 70,75 1117 2084 53,60 17,16
Chris Webber 2004 12 181 228 79,39 1983 3158 62,79 16,59
Kevin Restani 1979 6 131 161 81,37 131 201 65,17 16,19
Mark West 1989 7 199 288 69,10 471 872 54,01 15,08
Marty Conlon 1996 6 144 171 84,21 327 470 69,57 14,64
Corliss Williamson 2001 7 240 298 80,54 933 1415 65,94 14,60
Paul Silas 1971 8 433 560 77,32 1269 2023 62,73 14,59
Joel Przybilla 2008 9 112 169 66,27 331 633 52,29 13,98
Brendan Haywood 2007 7 216 294 73,47 794 1334 59,52 13,95
Chris Webber 2001 9 253 338 74,85 1434 2352 60,97 13,88
Gerald Wallace 2008 8 365 454 80,40 1074 1614 66,54 13,85
Toby Kimball 1973 8 127 185 68,65 571 1037 55,06 13,59
Connie Dierking 1966 6 134 180 74,44 455 747 60,91 13,53
Jamal Mashburn 2001 9 211 241 87,55 1734 2342 74,04 13,51
Kevin Willis 1998 14 130 155 83,87 2490 3538 70,38 13,49
Tyson Chandler 2009 9 115 157 73,25 1071 1789 59,87 13,38
Kevin Willis 1991 7 292 363 80,44 1004 1493 67,25 13,19
Connie Dierking 1967 7 237 310 76,45 589 927 63,54 12,91
Drew Gooden 2009 8 186 216 86,11 1180 1612 73,20 12,91
Caldwell Jones 1981 6 179 219 81,74 553 802 68,95 12,78
Baron Davis 2009 11 239 291 82,13 1983 2846 69,68 12,45
Thomas Sanders 1969 10 161 183 87,98 1632 2158 75,63 12,35
Nate Thurmond 1969 7 261 346 75,43 1554 2462 63,12 12,31
Obviously Tyson Chandler made a list, otherwise you wouldn’t read this post, but his improvement was far away from the most impressive one – this title probably should belong to Chris Webber who after six years of shooting at dreadful 54% made a jump to 75% and he even had some seasons close to 80%! Very nice Chris.
Dale Davis would be my clear number 2 in terms of most impressive improvement though he started at lower clip than Webber. Also last year’s backup to Tyson Chandler – Brendan Haywood – had a nice jump himself but it proved to be just a fluke year.
By the way, does anybody know how they did it?
Is there any coach who should get some deserved credit?
And just because I’ve checked and it works very nicely as a curiosity…
here’s a difference between the worst year and the best one [with minimum 150 FTA for both seasons]…
Player Best Year ftm fta FT% Worst Year ftm fta FT% Difference
Karl Malone 1999 589 739 79,7 1985 195 405 48,14 31,56
George Mcginnis 1975 475 642 73,98 1981 72 159 45,28 28,7
Dale Davis 2001 150 212 70,75 1996 92 215 42,79 27,96
Paul Silas 1973 264 337 78,33 1964 83 164 50,60 27,73
Vin Baker 2003 114 157 72,61 1998 72 160 45,00 27,61
Doc Rivers 1988 247 287 86,06 1985 172 283 60,77 25,29
Baron Davis 2009 239 291 82,13 2001 196 338 57,98 24,15
Tom Hawkins 1959 106 164 64,63 1968 62 151 41,05 23,58
Wilt Chamberlain 1961 835 1363 61,26 1967 354 932 37,98 23,28
Dennis Johnson 1987 255 298 85,57 1976 179 287 62,36 23,21
Tyson Chandler 2009 115 157 73,24 2005 97 193 50,25 22,99
K.c. Jones 1959 128 170 75,29 1963 88 168 52,38 22,91
Drew Gooden 2009 186 216 86,11 2003 167 262 63,74 22,37
Kevin Mchale 1989 393 440 89,31 1980 108 159 67,92 21,39
Jerry West 1966 602 686 87,75 1960 331 497 66,59 21,16
World Free 1980 528 649 81,35 1975 112 186 60,21 21,14
Dick Vanarsdale 1976 145 166 87,34 1967 227 339 66,96 20,38
Gary Payton 2001 267 335 79,7 1993 166 279 59,49 20,21
Antawn Jamison 2002 375 475 78,94 1998 90 153 58,82 20,12
Shaquille O’Neal 2002 451 725 62,2 2006 124 294 42,17 20,03
Tim Duncan 2001 560 701 79,88 2003 352 588 59,86 20,02
Eisenberg: Examining Tim Duncan’s astounding FT improvement
By Jacob Eisenberg
January 22, 2013 at 11:50 AM
Tim Duncan is a horrible pretty darn bad free throw shooter. If you’ve been following the NBA for the past decade and a half, you have probably come to accept that truism.
Except for one thing:
It isn’t true anymore.
It’s not even close to true. It is, in fact, astoundingly untrue this season.
Duncan went to the free throw line four times in San Antonio’s 90-85 victory over the Philadelphia 76ers on Monday, and he knocked down all four.
That perfect performance bumped his season percentage up to .826, ranking him 39th in the league. And Monday marked the 20th consecutive game in which Duncan has not missed more than one free throw — an astounding string for a player whose struggles from the line earlier in his career were viewed as his defining deficiency.
Duncan has been perfect from the line in 16 games — all of which have come since Nov. 23 in the Spurs’ 13th game of the season. He is ranked higher, percentage-wise, than Tony Parker, Luol Deng, Danilo Gallinari, Russell Westbrook, Paul George and J.R. Smith – all of whom have made more than 80 percent of their attempts.
What’s up with this transformation?
“I have done nothing to change my shot at the line. I really do not know what it is,” said Duncan, a career 69 percent shooter who bottomed out at .599 in 2003-04.
Although there was another moment when he bottomed out even worse, on the NBA’s biggest stage.
___
On June 19th, 2005, the San Antonio Spurs were a minute of basketball away from taking a commanding 3-2 lead over the Detroit Pistons in the NBA Finals at the Palace of Auburn Hills. With an 88-87 lead and with Duncan at the free throw line for two shots, Spurs fans had to like their chances of pulling out the victory.
Then, something bizarre happened: the ever-composed Duncan lost total control. Already having missed his first three free throw attempts of the fourth period, Duncan stood at the line with a minute left and helplessly missed his next two free shots.
When he returned to the line with an opportunity to give his team the lead with 34 seconds left, Duncan missed another crucial free throw to mark six consecutive missed shots.
A game that the Spurs should have won handily was forced into overtime.
Had it not been for Spurs’ forward Robert “Big Shot Bob” Horry’s heroic 3-pointer with 5.8 seconds to steal the win from Detroit, the Pistons would have won Game 5 of the finals and probably would have gone on to win the 2005 NBA Championship in large part to Duncan’s 4-for-11 night at the line.
After the game, Duncan called his performance “an absolute nightmare” to the media. It was the first (and perhaps the only) time Duncan has looked mortal on the NBA’s largest stage.
But that was a long time ago.
___
Over the course of history, it has been a common occurrence for poor free throw shooters to improve their free throw percentages throughout their NBA careers.
Karl Malone, for example, shot only 48% from the free throw line as a rookie. However, Malone became a 70 percent free throw shooter by his third year in the league and shot worse than 70 percent only once more in his 19-year career.
In Malone’s case, his poor free throw shooting was due to a combination of a lack of confidence and poor form. Both of these issues were easily corrected as he matured mentally and physically into an NBA star.
However, for already decent free throw shooters, improving free throws is another matter entirely.
Without identifiable issues in mentality or form, it is hard for coaches to point out something tangible for the shooters to correct. Consequently, in nearly every case, decent free throw shooters do not improve nor regress throughout their careers. They merely remain decent.
This trend is what makes Duncan’s sudden improvement at the line so fascinating. Duncan, at age 36, has finally broken out of the “decent” category and is becoming a consistent converter at the line. In fact, Duncan is on pace to do what only two players in NBA history (Kevin Willis in 1998, Jamal Mashburn in 2001) have done before him: improve his free throw percentage by 13% or greater from his career average.
For the past 15 years, Duncan has dominated the NBA. With four championships and career averages of 20+ points and 11+ rebounds a night, it is safe to anoint Duncan as the most unheralded superstar in league history. While he has been the epitome of consistency throughout his career with both high efficiency and unique durability for a big man (Duncan has never played fewer than 58 games in a full season), merely decent free throw shooting has always been the lone blemish on Duncan’s otherwise pristine resume.
Though he has never been a consistent albatross like Shaquille O’Neal at the line, Duncan has not exactly been Steve Nash when it comes to cashing in on his free shots either.
“Opponents have never fouled him expecting him to miss,” said third-year teammate Gary Neal. “For a big man, his free throw shooting has never been great but it is not like it has not been bad.”
But for stars of Duncan’s caliber, greatness is expected in all facets of the game. And if one were to nitpick on Duncan, his subpar free throw shooting is an easy target. Consider this: over his 15 years with the Spurs, Duncan has left nearly 2,500 points unfulfilled at the line.
This season, however, the script has been flipped. While teams have historically lived with fouling Duncan in the post and sending him to the free throw line, opponents now have to be extra careful in defending Duncan in the paint. If they guard him cautiously, he will score over you. However, if you defend him over-aggressively — more times than not — Duncan will reward his team with two points at the line.
The 82 percent Duncan is shooting is perhaps the biggest upgrade for San Antonio this season. After all, Duncan has not made over 73% of his free throws since the 2001-2002 season. This year, improved free throw shooting has led to Duncan scoring more points a game than he has since 2009-2010.
So why, at 36 years old, does it appear that Duncan has finally mastered the art of free throw shooting? The truth is, no one knows.
Or is saying with any specificity.
Tony Parker, Duncan’s longtime All-Star teammate, can only suspect that Duncan is shooting better from the line because he has changed his mentality.
“He is shooting with a lot of confidence. When I first came into the league, he was shooting great from the line too. He has had some off years recently but that is how it is. Free throws can come and go.”
Interestingly, Neal suspects that Duncan’s improvement at the line comes in direct relation with the 36-year-old’s aging body: “Free throw shooting is the one aspect of his game that he can improve without a lot of wear and tear in training. I think his improvement comes from practicing and working with the shooting coach Chip Engelland over the summer. He is focusing better at the line. He is shooting it great. It is just another credit to him being a Hall of Famer and having a great work ethic.”
While the Spurs have collectively noticed Duncan’s improvements at the line, no one ever doubted Duncan and his ability to become a strong free throw shooter. Head Coach Gregg Popovich said, “I think it is great. I am not surprised.”
So, come crunch time, does Duncan’s added efficiency at the line make him even more of a focal point in the offense? Not necessarily…
As Parker said with a smile, “I am going to feed Tim regardless of his free throw shooting. He is our go-to-guy.”
Still, the career-high free throw percentage has to add some confidence to the team’s morale toward the end of games.
So as Duncan continues to shoot his free throws with the most confident stroke of his career, memories of Game 5 of the 2005 NBA Finals are growing more distant by the day.
To put things in historical perspective, check out this chart from weaksideawareness.com:
“OK, let’s start with basics, I downloaded a file from basketballreference.com with historical data and I compared FT% in every season after 5th [with minimum 150 free throw attempts] to Free Throw Percentage based on all combined makes and attempts at this point of player’s career. And here are the results…
Player year Season ftm fta FT% to-date-FTM to-date-FTA to-date-FT% Sudden jump by
Chris Webber 1999 7 311 414 75,12 799 1477 54,10 21,02
Dale Davis 1999 9 139 203 68,47 882 1729 51,01 17,46
Dale Davis 2001 11 150 212 70,75 1117 2084 53,60 17,16
Chris Webber 2004 12 181 228 79,39 1983 3158 62,79 16,59
Kevin Restani 1979 6 131 161 81,37 131 201 65,17 16,19
Mark West 1989 7 199 288 69,10 471 872 54,01 15,08
Marty Conlon 1996 6 144 171 84,21 327 470 69,57 14,64
Corliss Williamson 2001 7 240 298 80,54 933 1415 65,94 14,60
Paul Silas 1971 8 433 560 77,32 1269 2023 62,73 14,59
Joel Przybilla 2008 9 112 169 66,27 331 633 52,29 13,98
Brendan Haywood 2007 7 216 294 73,47 794 1334 59,52 13,95
Chris Webber 2001 9 253 338 74,85 1434 2352 60,97 13,88
Gerald Wallace 2008 8 365 454 80,40 1074 1614 66,54 13,85
Toby Kimball 1973 8 127 185 68,65 571 1037 55,06 13,59
Connie Dierking 1966 6 134 180 74,44 455 747 60,91 13,53
Jamal Mashburn 2001 9 211 241 87,55 1734 2342 74,04 13,51
Kevin Willis 1998 14 130 155 83,87 2490 3538 70,38 13,49
Tyson Chandler 2009 9 115 157 73,25 1071 1789 59,87 13,38
Kevin Willis 1991 7 292 363 80,44 1004 1493 67,25 13,19
Connie Dierking 1967 7 237 310 76,45 589 927 63,54 12,91
Drew Gooden 2009 8 186 216 86,11 1180 1612 73,20 12,91
Caldwell Jones 1981 6 179 219 81,74 553 802 68,95 12,78
Baron Davis 2009 11 239 291 82,13 1983 2846 69,68 12,45
Thomas Sanders 1969 10 161 183 87,98 1632 2158 75,63 12,35
Nate Thurmond 1969 7 261 346 75,43 1554 2462 63,12 12,31
Obviously Tyson Chandler made a list, otherwise you wouldn’t read this post, but his improvement was far away from the most impressive one – this title probably should belong to Chris Webber who after six years of shooting at dreadful 54% made a jump to 75% and he even had some seasons close to 80%! Very nice Chris.
Dale Davis would be my clear number 2 in terms of most impressive improvement though he started at lower clip than Webber. Also last year’s backup to Tyson Chandler – Brendan Haywood – had a nice jump himself but it proved to be just a fluke year.
By the way, does anybody know how they did it?
Is there any coach who should get some deserved credit?
And just because I’ve checked and it works very nicely as a curiosity…
here’s a difference between the worst year and the best one [with minimum 150 FTA for both seasons]…
Player Best Year ftm fta FT% Worst Year ftm fta FT% Difference
Karl Malone 1999 589 739 79,7 1985 195 405 48,14 31,56
George Mcginnis 1975 475 642 73,98 1981 72 159 45,28 28,7
Dale Davis 2001 150 212 70,75 1996 92 215 42,79 27,96
Paul Silas 1973 264 337 78,33 1964 83 164 50,60 27,73
Vin Baker 2003 114 157 72,61 1998 72 160 45,00 27,61
Doc Rivers 1988 247 287 86,06 1985 172 283 60,77 25,29
Baron Davis 2009 239 291 82,13 2001 196 338 57,98 24,15
Tom Hawkins 1959 106 164 64,63 1968 62 151 41,05 23,58
Wilt Chamberlain 1961 835 1363 61,26 1967 354 932 37,98 23,28
Dennis Johnson 1987 255 298 85,57 1976 179 287 62,36 23,21
Tyson Chandler 2009 115 157 73,24 2005 97 193 50,25 22,99
K.c. Jones 1959 128 170 75,29 1963 88 168 52,38 22,91
Drew Gooden 2009 186 216 86,11 2003 167 262 63,74 22,37
Kevin Mchale 1989 393 440 89,31 1980 108 159 67,92 21,39
Jerry West 1966 602 686 87,75 1960 331 497 66,59 21,16
World Free 1980 528 649 81,35 1975 112 186 60,21 21,14
Dick Vanarsdale 1976 145 166 87,34 1967 227 339 66,96 20,38
Gary Payton 2001 267 335 79,7 1993 166 279 59,49 20,21
Antawn Jamison 2002 375 475 78,94 1998 90 153 58,82 20,12
Shaquille O’Neal 2002 451 725 62,2 2006 124 294 42,17 20,03
Tim Duncan 2001 560 701 79,88 2003 352 588 59,86 20,02