Article: My thoughts on the Al Jefferson rumors

[MarkTravis]

Hey guys,

Thanks for your warm welcome to the forum! I just finished up a piece on the Al Jefferson rumors in which I break down whether or not I think he would be a good fit for the Spurs. Let me know what you think!

http://www.caller.com/news/2013/feb/07/how-would-al-jefferson-fit-spurs/

[Spur|n|Austin]

Hey guys,

Thanks for your warm welcome to the forum! I just finished up a piece on the Al Jefferson rumors in which I break down whether or not I think he would be a good fit for the Spurs. Let me know what you think!

http://www.caller.com/news/2013/feb/07/how-would-al-jefferson-fit-spurs/

Thanks for sharing! :tu I must say though, as a Lakers fan, you sure do write a lot about the spurs :lol

[romain.star]

Young boy, you're good

[ginobilized]

Nicely written and thought out piece. I see it that way, too.

[Brunodf]

"According to BasketballValue.com, the Jazz give up 110.53 points per 100 possessions while Jefferson is on the floor. When he is off the floor, their defensive efficiency drops to 101.21 points per 100 possessions allowed. That means Utah's defense gets nearly 10 points per 100 possessions better when Jefferson is off of the floor"

:lmao People wonder why the Jazz would trade him

[DrSteffo]

Very, very good article. I was wondering when you would adress the most serious concern (the baaad D of Al) but you did at the end.

[look_at_g_shred]

Great read. Thanks.

[TJastal]

"According to BasketballValue.com, the Jazz give up 110.53 points per 100 possessions while Jefferson is on the floor. When he is off the floor, their defensive efficiency drops to 101.21 points per 100 possessions allowed. That means Utah's defense gets nearly 10 points per 100 possessions better when Jefferson is off of the floor"

:lmao People wonder why would he be traded

Bah, who cares about defense... when you got the skeeeewz of a Big Al you don't need defense.

[benefactor]

Best grey poster to come on this site in quite some time.

Quality read. Between the offense needing to slow the pace to accommodate Jefferson and the defensive metrics you cited I don't think there is anyone that can make a legit case that trading for Jefferson would be a championship move. Post-Duncan stop gap? Sure. A piece to put another trophy in the case? No way.

[Captivus]

Nice article.
I like that left side post-up analysis.




Player
G
GS
MP
FG
FGA
FG%
3P
3PA
3P%
FT
FTA
FT%
ORB
DRB
TRB
AST
STL
BLK
TOV
PF
PTS


Al Jefferson (http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/j/jeffeal01.html)
49
49
1615
8.0
16.8
.478
0.0
0.2
.182
2.6
3.1
.830
2.2
8.2
10.4
2.4
1.0
1.2
1.3
2.5
18.7


Tiago Splitter (http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/s/splitti01.html)
50
28
1166
6.1
10.3
.599
0.0
0.0
.000
4.0
5.3
.751
2.5
6.5
9.0
2.1
1.2
1.2
1.8
3.3
16.3



I like stats, and looking at per36, I dont see the difference.
Jefferson with +2.4 pts and +1.4 reb
The big difference is the FG% 48% ss 60% in favor of Tiago.
Tiago knows the system.

I wouldnt trade Splitter for him.

[TrueSpursFan]

Great piece!Why is this guy still grey?

[024]

pretty good article, thanks for sharing.

[coopdogg3]

Good piece. I'm not thrilled with the idea of giving up Splitter for Jefferson. But a bruising post-player could be a nice addition for the playoffs when the games tend to slow down.

[Spur|n|Austin]

Good piece. I'm not thrilled with the idea of giving up Splitter for Jefferson. But a bruising post-player could be a nice addition for the playoffs when the games tend to slow down.

That's a valid point; I would be all over it if the trade didn't include Splitter.

[Big Empty]

nice article! Caller Times has a great catch with you partner

[MarkTravis]

Thanks for sharing! :tu I must say though, as a Lakers fan, you sure do write a lot about the spurs :lol

Haha, well I was born in Corpus, which is why I write for this paper. My assignment is to cover the three Texas teams. I was a stubborn kid growing up and my family forced Cowboys/Spurs on to me so I just had to go with their rivals. First NBA memories I have is Kobe and Shaq capturing their first ring.

[hooperflash]

Haha, well I was born in Corpus, which is why I write for this paper. My assignment is to cover the three Texas teams. I was a stubborn kid growing up and my family forced Cowboys/Spurs on to me so I just had to go with their rivals. First NBA memories I have is Kobe and Shaq capturing their first ring.

I like your family.

[MarkTravis]

Good piece. I'm not thrilled with the idea of giving up Splitter for Jefferson. But a bruising post-player could be a nice addition for the playoffs when the games tend to slow down.

I know that is a common perception, but I just looked it up and the Spurs had a pace of 94.56 in the playoffs last year compared to their 95.09 pace in the regular season. San Antonio does not strike me as a team that wants to slow things down. I think there is a difference between going through 15-20 seconds of offense to get Jefferson a good look on the block and spending five extra seconds going from semi-transition offense to half-court offense, something the Spurs did well against OKC.

[MarkTravis]

I like your family.

I do too! :) Just not in this particular case!

[TJastal]

I know that is a common perception, but I just looked it up and the Spurs had a pace of 94.56 in the playoffs last year compared to their 95.09 pace in the regular season. San Antonio does not strike me as a team that wants to slow things down. I think there is a difference between going through 15-20 seconds of offense to get Jefferson a good look on the block and spending five extra seconds going from semi-transition offense to half-court offense, something the Spurs did well against OKC.

That's the feeling I'm getting too. Having "Big Al" lumbering up and down the court will defenitely put a damper on the spurs running game which means less easy points in transition along with more points given up in transition.. there is a reason the jazz give up 10 more points per contest when he is on the floor...

I think in order to give up all that, plus completely overhaul the offense in order to accomodate him, his offensive efficiency better be near the top of the league (which it is nowhere near).

[MarkTravis]

That's the feeling I'm getting too. Having "Big Al" lumbering up and down the court will defenitely put a damper on the spurs running game which means less easy points in transition along with more points given up in transition.. there is a reason the jazz give up 10 more points per contest when he is on the floor...

I think in order to give up all that, plus completely overhaul the offense in order to accomodate him, his offensive efficiency better be near the top of the league (which it is nowhere near).

I agree.

[timvp]

Great job, MarkTravis. I see big things in your future. Keep writing :tu

One note: Those basketballvalue.com stats you quoted are last year's stats. (The owner of basketballvalue.com got hired by the Sixers and he's not updating the site anymore.) This season, the Jazz allow 104.4 points per 100 possessions when Jefferson is on the court. It drops to 102.2 when he's on the bench. There's still a difference there but not as drastic as last season.

[MarkTravis]

Great job, MarkTravis (http://www.spurstalk.com/forums/member.php?u=36268). I see big things in your future. Keep writing :tu

One note: Those basketballvalue.com stats you quoted are last year's stats. (The owner of basketballvalue.com got hired by the Sixers and he's not updating the site anymore.) This season, the Jazz allow 104.4 points per 100 possessions when Jefferson is on the court. It drops to 102.2 when he's on the bench. There's still a difference there but not as drastic as last season.

I thought that were a while too, but actually the site is still being updated. What is not updated is that little dropdown box which makes it hard to find this year's stats. Here is Utah's team page for this season: http://basketballvalue.com/teamplayers.php?year=2012-2013&team=UTA

Thanks for the kind words, by the way!

EDIT: Also, thanks for letting me know which team hired him. I was able to look him up and now I understand why the site has never had any data on Grizzlie players (he was a consultant for them since 2009).

[timvp]

I thought that were a while too, but actually the site is still being updated. What is not updated is that little dropdown box which makes it hard to find this year's stats. Here is Utah's team page for this season: http://basketballvalue.com/teamplayers.php?year=2012-2013&team=UTA

Thanks for the kind words, by the way!

EDIT: Also, thanks for letting me know which team hired him. I was able to look him up and now I understand why the site has never had any data on Grizzlie players (he was a consultant for them since 2009).

Oh damn, good find with the backdoor link :tu

I'm going to have to look to see why it doesn't match up with other numbers on Jefferson ...

[timtonymanu]

Damn, good article! :tu

You definitely know your stuff for a Laker fan.

[MarkTravis]

Oh damn, good find with the backdoor link :tu

I'm going to have to look to see why it doesn't match up with other numbers on Jefferson ...

I think I know what happened. The default for the NBA stats cube is to show you stats from last season. You have to click the 2012-13 tab to get this year's stats (annoying, I know). Here are Jefferson's stats cube numbers for this season: http://www.nba.com/advancedstats/team-vs-player.html#Jazz-vs-Al-Jefferson|1610612762,2744;year=201213;season=r

The ratings themselves are different between the stats cube and basketball value but the net ratings are still close to identical.

[superbigtime]

Spurs gotta keep Splitter. He is getting better and better and he fits the system better than Al Jeff.

[timvp]

I think I know what happened. The default for the NBA stats cube is to show you stats from last season. You have to click the 2012-13 tab to get this year's stats (annoying, I know). Here are Jefferson's stats cube numbers for this season: http://www.nba.com/advancedstats/team-vs-player.html#Jazz-vs-Al-Jefferson|1610612762,2744;year=201213;season=r

The ratings themselves are different between the stats cube and basketball value but the net ratings are still close to identical.

Yeah, 82games is in that same ballpark ... so looks like your original numbers are legit. Again, nice job :tu

[MarkTravis]

Yeah, 82games is in that same ballpark ... so looks like your original numbers are legit. Again, nice job :tu

Thanks!

[spurraider21]

"According to BasketballValue.com, the Jazz give up 110.53 points per 100 possessions while Jefferson is on the floor. When he is off the floor, their defensive efficiency drops to 101.21 points per 100 possessions allowed. That means Utah's defense gets nearly 10 points per 100 possessions better when Jefferson is off of the floor"

:lmao People wonder why the Jazz would trade him

plus favors comes in when jefferson sits and he's a + defender

[Richie]

Would anyone consider David West and Al Jefferson to have similar ability on defence? If West can be a major part of a Top 2 defence in the league, I don't see why Jefferson couldn't be.

[Brunodf]

Would anyone consider David West and Al Jefferson to have similar ability on defence? If West can be a major part of a Top 2 defence in the league, I don't see why Jefferson couldn't be.

D.West>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> AJ

[MarkTravis]

Would anyone consider David West and Al Jefferson to have similar ability on defence? If West can be a major part of a Top 2 defence in the league, I don't see why Jefferson couldn't be.

David West is an excellent defensive player. The two are not comparable.

[Richie]

D.West>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> AJ

The defensive rating of Al Jeff at Utah and David West at the Hornets are about the same.

[Richie]

David West is an excellent defensive player. The two are not comparable.

Wtf? Every time I've suggested David West on this forum (whom I rate very highly, could love to get him in free agency this year) everyone shouts how he isn't a good defensive player.

[TJastal]

Would anyone consider David West and Al Jefferson to have similar ability on defence? If West can be a major part of a Top 2 defence in the league, I don't see why Jefferson couldn't be.

I would say West is much better. To back that up here's an opinion I found on Jefferson from a year or so ago.

http://blogs.mercurynews.com/kawakami/2011/05/15/my-4th-annual-nba-no-defense-team-al-jefferson-monta-ellis-kobe-bryant-and-more/


Long wind-up. Here are my 2011 NBA No-Defense Teams (generally trying to go C-F-F-G-G, but like the All-Star teams, maybe not quite getting there)…

—–FIRST TEAM/

* No-Defense Player of the Year: Al Jefferson, Utah. Congratulations, Al! You’ve been headed towards this award for most of your up/down career and you’ve finally gotten it.

Sure, it looks like a tough selection when the stats say that Jefferson was one of the more productive shot-blockers in the league this season (153 blks). But there’s more to defense than blocking shots, and Al didn’t do ANY of them…

Can’t tell you how many times I was watching a Utah game, saw the Jazz give up an easy bucket in the half-court, and figured out it was Jefferson who turned his head at the wrong time or just decided to leave the weak side totally unprotected.

Raw stat: He had the worst defensive differential per 100 possessions than any player in the league (among regulars, that I could find)–Utah gave up 6.8 more points per 100 possessions when Jefferson was on the court than when he was off. 113.3 when he was ON, 106.5 when he was off.

(I’ll get into Devin Harris’ stats a bit later, but keep him in mind, too.)

In the big picture, I don’t think there’s any player that 100% caused Jerry Sloan’s retirement as Jazz coach.

But if you watched Utah play last season, it’s probably not wrong to conclude that Big Al was maybe 80% of it.

Lead-footed, doesn’t rotate correctly (or sometimes, at all), looks only for the big shot block and if it’s not there he loses interest, doesn’t exactly sprint back on transition D, and often gets walloped by anybody on the post with some quickness…

Yep, if I’m Sloan and I’ve built my great career on intensity, and I’m stuck with Al Jefferson on the post, which guarantees that Utah will be a lousy defensive team, maybe I would’ve quit, too.

[MarkTravis]

The defensive rating of Al Jeff at Utah and David West at the Hornets are about the same.

Defensive rating is not an end-all, be-all. It needs context. West may have had similar defensive ratings as Jefferson, but the difference between when West was on the court and when he was off the court was minimal, which suggests that the Hornets were overall a bad defensive team. The Jazz are actually a really good defensive team when Jefferson is not on the floor. West's numbers with the Pacers are elite and there are few players in the league that defend better than he does.

[Brunodf]

The defensive rating of Al Jeff at Utah and David West at the Hornets are about the same.

So?

[MarkTravis]

Wtf? Every time I've suggested David West on this forum (whom I rate very highly, could love to get him in free agency this year) everyone shouts how he isn't a good defensive player.

West is a tremendous defensive player. According to Synergy Sports Technology, West holds his man to 32% shooting on pick-and-rolls, 12% on isolations and 27% on spot-ups. The only place where he is below average is as a post-up defender. Overall, of players with at least 200 defensive possessions, West gives up the second fewest points per possession in the league.

[spurraider21]

West is sort of like Carl Landry on steroids. He's not a bad defender, but he is more size limited than Al

[Richie]

West is a tremendous defensive player. According to Synergy Sports Technology, West holds his man to 32% shooting on pick-and-rolls, 12% on isolations and 27% on spot-ups. The only place where he is below average is as a post-up defender. Overall, of players with at least 200 defensive possessions, West gives up the second fewest points per possession in the league.

Fair enough, but I think it's unfair to compare West on the Pacers to Jefferson on the Jazz. What are Wests' stats on the Hornets?

Also, lets remember defensive stats always need to be taken with a pinch of salt. Didn't Bonner get put in the Top 5 defensive power forwards in a stats article a few weeks ago?