Trade Target: J.J. Redick

[objective]

http://www.nba.com/media/act_jj_redick.jpg
Born: Jun 24, 1984
Height: 6-4 / 1.93
Weight: 190 lbs. / 86.2 kg.
Prior to NBA / Country:
Duke / USA
Years Pro: 6

Info (http://www.nba.com/playerfile/jj_redick/career_stats.html)

Feb 1st: (http://espn.go.com/nba/dailydime/_/page/dime-130201-02/eight-trade-truths-deadline)


The Orlando sharpshooter is the player, with Gay off the board, most teams cite when asked to name a player who will definitely be dealt between now and the deadline.

Our old friend Ric Bucher recently reported that the Magic want draft considerations or a quality young player still on his rookie contract if they're going to part with Redick, which sure sounds like the sort of wish list Magic GM Rob Hennigan would have been schooled to scribble out at San Antonio Spurs U. and the graduate program in OKC.

[objective]

There's plenty of rumours about him now, teams mentioned like the Bucks and Pacers among others.

But I made this thread because I hope the Spurs trade for him.

I have become convinced that the Spurs can't win a title with Danny Green. Not with the role he has, and the alternatives for SG minutes behind Manu like Neal aren't better. His overall defense is just too awful. He by far is the weak link in starters, and will be the link that breaks their backs. Combine his defensive lapses with his avalanche of streak shooting misses, and it's not a pretty picture.

Green, Blair, Mills/Neal & a First for Redick works. To stay under the tax they'd have to dump whoever's left between Neal and Mills. And yes that would leave them thin and they'd have to add a scrub player. But the Spurs would be better.

Reports now are that Orlando wants an expiring and a first. Reports 10 days ago were that Orlando wanted a young player on a rookie deal and a first. Going by the older scenario, Green almost qualifies. He makes little enough that he might as well be on a first round deal, and could be seen as talented enough to keep as a half-price Redick.

Redick is a smart defender, and an upgrade over Green overall, and not by a little I feel. And would be much more consistent shooter. He's hitting his threes at 40% now but that's with bad looks on a terrible team. If he had the open looks Green had, he'd shoot even better. His playmaking and passing has improved, he's at 4.5 assists a game now with scrubs, he'd be a positive when it came to moving the ball. He's weaker on the boards, but that's a con I'd take.

He'd be a free agent and not cheap, probably getting a raise. That'd be 7-9 million I'm sure. But he could play with both Parker and Ginobili for 30 minutes a night. And if Ginobili retired, he's not a bad guy to have just in case.

Summing up, if the Spurs moved Green for Redick, I think they'd be put over the top into legit contenders. I don't think they are the way they are now.

[DesignatedT]

I agree. Not sure if he is going to be worth the kind of money he is going to want though.

He's a great offensive player who is underrated defensively by most.

[timvp]

Pass. Green, Neal and a first round pick for Redick? Redick is underrated as a player but I wholeheartedly pass on that trade.

First of all, I'm surprised that someone as anti-Bonner as objective would advocate for a player who has made Matt Bonner look like Larry Bird his last two times in the playoffs. Since 2010, Redick is 5-for-34 on three-pointers in the playoffs. Bonner has never choked THAT bad. Hell, Green's cold shooting against OKC in the playoffs last year looks great compared to Redick's sub-15% on threes over a span of 243 minutes. "JJ Bonner", as he'd probably soon be known, is also shooting 35% this year in clutch situations, so there's more evidence that Redick is a choker than Green, if we're being intellectually honest.

Secondly, I disagree that Redick is a better defender than Green. Redick is great an maneuvering around screens; he's one of the best in the league at that. Green sucks at maneuvering around screens. I'll fully admit there's no contest there. However, that's the extent of where Redick is better than Green on defense. On the low block, Green is much better. Isolations, Green is better. Help defense, Green is better. Transition defense, Green is elite and thus much better. Rebounding, Green is better. Protecting the rim, again no contest. Being able to defend multiple positions: Green can defend three positions; Redick one. So unless the definition of "defense"is limited to "who maneuvers around screens better", Green is at the very least equal to Redick. Personally, I'd give the advantage to Green. His ability to defend multiple positions is valuable, as is his great transition defense. Plus, he's green enough (no pun intended) to improve.

Furthermore, while Redick's defense is underrated by the majority, his D looks iffy on closer inspection. In his career, the Magic have been better than him defensively off the court than on the court in every single season. This year, they are 4.4 points per 100 possessions worse with him on the court on defense. And it's not like he's getting replaced by an all-world defender when he's on the bench; the other shooting guards on that team are no-names. Oh, and Redick plays mostly against the opposing bench, which makes it even worse. RAPM has Green as a break-even defender while Redick is graded as well below average. Last season, Green's RAPM was really good, Redick's RAPM was really bad. So while Redick's rep as a horrible defender is undeserved, it's not like he's Bruce Bowen in disguise. At the absolute best, Redick's defense can be described as a non-liability.

Third of all, Redick would be a rental. He's going to make too much money this offseason. Even at the MLE, I wouldn't want him back. Short, unathletic players almost unanimously fall off a cliff at ~30. Redick turns 29 this summer. A short, unathletic player who would be worthless if he loses his wherewithal to release his shot is a horrible investment at Redick's age.

I'm not especially high on Green but I just don't see the upgrade here that warrants giving away depth (Neal) and a first round pick. Maybe Green is a playoff choker but Redick looks like even more like a playoff choker (5-for-34 :lol). Defensively, an unbiased look at it would strongly indicate Green is better. Age-wise, Green is entering his prime while Redick is exiting his prime. Contract-wise, Green has two more years of a reasonable contract; Redick is about to get massively overpaid.

Trading for Redick makes some sense in theory but after putting it in context, it just doesn't.

[Chinook]

I'm glad someone said this. People think every teams' shooting-guards are better than Green. In reality, the Spurs could do a lot worse.

[objective]

I think Redick is a better defender than people think (and not just with screens), and Green worse than people think. We'll agree to disagree.

Regarding Redick and Bonner, Redick's had two long playoff runs where he shot really well from three, over 40% in 30 games from '10 and '11. That gives me the confidence that he's not just another Bonner.

Re: the high price of a first and the cost of keeping Redick, I think Redick would give the Spurs a better chance to win this year. To me, that's worth a 29 pick. If he could be had cheaper, all the better. But we don't even know if Manu will still play next season, this year could be all there is, so it would be worth the gamble. Re: his $ cost, I think Redick would be easier and more reasonable to retain than other pieces that could be acquired through trade, like Josh Smith.

I've learned to trust my own judgements with Spurs players, and my batting average is astronomically high . . . not even bragging. With other teams on the whole, not so much (I laughed when the Bulls assembled the former Jazz players to go with Rose, among many other mistakes like thinking the '11 Heat would win over 70). But I think I am on to something here.

Unless Redick's current shoulder injury is a serious issue, then forget this whole thread.

[Mel_13]

Woj:

Despite intentions to keep free-agent guard J.J. Redick this summer, it's unlikely the Orlando Magic will be his highest bidder come July 1.

The Magic are willing to re-sign Redick to a deal near the mid-level exception of $5 million per year, but sources say Redick's agent, Arn Tellem, will likely start the bidding at four years, $40 million for Redick on the free-agent market.

Redick won't get that kind of a deal, but teams with interest in the guard tell Yahoo! Sports they could be willing to pay him in the range of $7 million annually. Redick has great value for contending teams who understand how far he grew under former Magic coach Stan Van Gundy. His ability to make shots comes at a premium in the NBA.

Indiana, Milwaukee, Chicago and Minnesota have expressed interest in trading for Redick, but teams have been reluctant to give up a first-round pick and a good young player for a player who could turn into a rental for the rest of the season.

The Philadelphia 76ers could be a real possibility for Redick in free agency, sources told Yahoo! Sports. Redick has a strong relationship with coach Doug Collins, the father of his close friend and Duke assistant coach, Chris Collins.

http://sports.yahoo.com/news/nba--nba-trade-deadline-buzz--clippers-end-kevin-garnett-trade-talks-for-now-030112108.html

[Chinook]

Never have I seen a player this overrated. I don't know if he would even get playing time on many contenders. I have no idea why anyone thinks he's a championship piece.

[ace3g]

The Bucks are active. General manager John Hammond plays the laid-back, gee-shucks Midwesterner. But he likes the trade game. He has shown an interest in Orlando Magic shooting guard J.J. Redick, but the Magic are not enamored yet with anything the Bucks have offered.

Bucks forward Luc Richard Mbah a Moute is one option, but Orlando does not like his contract. But the Magic aren't interested in the remainder of Mbah a Moute's contract – two years, $8.97 million. There is also interest around the league in Bucks center Ekpe Udoh, who is still on his rookie deal.

The Magic have wanted to know Redick's future price. Hoping for a hometown discount, Orlando is not willing to pay much above what he makes now ($6.19 million this season), and Redick wants a significant raise – close to $10 million a season. Orlando continues to take calls on Redick's availability, and the Magic are looking for at least a first-round pick.

http://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/nba/2013/02/20/nba-trade-deadline/1932729/