TheTruth
07-03-2005, 10:04 PM
Don't know if this was posted already....Sorry, if it was..
By Emmett Shaw
for HOOPSWORLD.com
Jul 1, 2005, 23:44
There's only one person I know of who can deny the truth. That's the Spurs' Bruce Bowen. Everyone else must concede to the cold facts and work with them. The truth about pro basketball careers is the bell curve. Check out those curves via the spreadsheets at NBA.com or in the league's encyclopedia or register.
Players always peak their careers in their mid to late 20s, once in a great while at age 30 or 31. Over the seasons, NBA careers build up to a high couple of years, then trail off to a retirement or a place in a foreign league.
I broke down the first 20 spreadsheets of significant length of players who more or less are Bruce's size and position (Source: "The NBA Encyclopedia"). I got both Hall of Famers and role players, big scoring stars and defensive players alike:
Nick Anderson, Ron Anderson, Vincent Askew, Keith Askins, Rick Barry, Elgin Baylor, Rolando Blackman, Dudley Bradley, Bill Bradley, Carl Braun, Junior Bridgeman, Allan Bristow, Roger Brown, Tony Campbell, M.L. Carr, Cedric Ceballos, Don Chaney, Calbert Cheaney, and Doug Christie.
Using a combination of PPG, total minutes, and RPG, I derived the peak season of each of these players' careers. The average top of the bell came at age 27.75. Ron Anderson and Carl Braun were the oldest to peak, at age 31. Bill Bradley did so at age 30. Hall of Famers Barry and Baylor pushed back up to subsequent tops -- but slightly lower peaks -- at ages 31 and 34. That's how great those two were!
But how great should we then consider the now 34-years-old Bruce Bowen, who wrote his own version of the truth this past season? How about this guy having his career season at age 33? Making All-Defense (2nd place for Defensive POY), producing his highest scoring average year ever, and (compared to the above sample) playing more minutes at the same age than all but HOF guys Barry, Baylor, and Bill Bradley, 17K scorer Blackman, and Bowen's contemporary Christie.
And, oh, starting for the NBA Champions. Wow! To tell the truth, the history of Bruce Bowen proves that there are different versions of the truth, and logic and study will help to evaluate what version really is true. We know it’s true that the Spurs have had success lately in the NBA Draft, despite picking very late in the order. The Spurs are the ultimate team that picks young players overseas who stay there and develop rather than becoming a deep reserve or practice player for a while. Whether it’s the head coach or some of their players, the Spurs make their presence known in the summers in Europe. They spread some cordiality around and put out the word that San Antonio is a good place to be.
Here’s another truth. Teams mimic successful teams. Other franchises keep their eyes on the Spurs scouts across the pond. The Spurs know from past truths that they might not get their guy on draft night, and the Spurs now say – to be fair, everyone says this on draft night – that France’s 18-year-old Ian Mahinmi, whom San Antonio took at #28, was their guy this year. It was well known that Yugo Nenad Krstic, also age 18 at the time, was their guy in 2002. Not to say at all that NJ execs Rod Thorn and Ed Stefanski were just watching the Spurs instead of doing their homework, but Rod told the NY papers that everyone knew the Spurs wanted Krstic.
The Nets picked the skinny 6-11 Nenad at #24, leaving the Spurs to trade out of their 26th pick that year. (A digression: San Antonio did superbly in that scenario, landing Speedy Claxton in trade from Philadelphia. Claxton was a serious talent with an ending contract, helping the Spurs to win immediately, yet also pursue MVP-type PG Jason Kidd in 2003's FA class.) The truth of 2002 is that the lesson learned was that the Spurs would be better off keeping their preferences behind a firewall. And we also see it’s true that it’s a longshot to draft a talented big man, even a skinny kid who can’t help immediately, picking late in the 20s. The Spurs weren’t ready to push their luck in 2002, although Dan Gadzuric and Carlos Boozer were still available at #26.
Some more truth...maybe. The Spurs probably had made a promise to Nenad. It was expected that Krstic first put himself in the draft in 2002 just to get his name out there for the future. It was believed that he would pull out before the deadline. When he didn’t pull out, there was the clue. The guy got a promise from someone. When Thorn beat the Spurs to their prize by two picks, out of Round One San Antonio escaped. Fast-forward to earlier this week: In RC Buford’s press conference late on draft night (sound provided by the Spurs on their website), the Spurs’ GM was asked if he considered trading out of the first round, and he answered, “Not as long as Ian was still on the board.”
So there is the evidence that Mahinmi also could have had a promise from the Spurs. Notice that Buford mentioned at the press conference about Ian, “Once he left his name in the draft, I think it surprised some people.” RC also mentioned there that the Spurs were “sweating it for the last month.” The truth: The Spurs were sweating that someone was watching them for clues, and that possibly that someone was Seattle. Again, this is not to impugn the Sonics, who have a history of drafting quite well, but the Sonics keep their eyes and ears open. My information is that when Robert Swift quit working out for teams last year, the Sonics concluded that Swift had a promise from Boston’s Danny Ainge, in exchange for Robert keeping his talents better hidden.
Seattle then poured over as much video of Swift as they could and decided he was their guy, taking him at #12. This year, if the Sonics (who were picking 25th) got wind of who Buford was after – and if they had enough information, including even on video – the Spurs could again lose their guy. Hence the San Antonio “sweat”. And hence some clever disinformation. It seems that the Spurs were able to inject French forward Mickael Gelebale’s name into the speculation about who they might pick, and who might eventually succeed Bowen at SF. A piece of disinformation to explain their known scouting interest in France? Perhaps. Fran Fraschilla, on ESPN’s TV coverage, and Johnny Ludden of the San Antonio Express-News both may have been subtly led down the Gelebale path. The Express-News even carried a picture of Mickael the morning of the draft.
We also have the proven truth that the more a player is exposed, the greater the chance that more than one team will also make him its target. Think Ndudi Ebi in 2003. The Spurs were picking #28. When Ebi played just as well as LeBron at Michael Jordan’s schoolboy All-Star game in DC, Kevin McHale, whose T-wolves were picking 26th, fell for the tall high school SF, as did I while watching that game on television. I recommended Ebi for the Spurs in my pre-draft column here, with visions of the youngster running the wings to catch passes from Kidd and jam them, just as Ebi had so spectacularly done with Chris Paul feeding him at MCI Center.
Indeed, Ebi was San Antonio's target. The truth that McHale edged the Spurs to nab Ebi at #26, makes it true that if a team focuses in on their guy, keeping him under wraps is the best scenario. Looking at this year, notice that 6-10 Mahinmi was scheduled to play in the Nike Hoop Summit for the World Select Team. This was announced by the Fed-Ex Forum, site of the April event, a couple of weeks before the game. But then Ian was scratched from the roster. Why? Was it in those days leading up to the Summit that Mahinmi got a promise from the Spurs in exchange for his staying home? McHale, Ainge, Jerry West, Joe Dumars, or who knows who couldn’t evaluate what they couldn’t see.
The truth is that the Spurs are in a position that they can wait for players like Krstic and Mahinmi to develop, and if they are to get the best prospects for that purpose while picking as late in drafts as they do, they've learned they need to finesse the competition and play close to the vest with company secrets. This draft makes it look as if that’s just what they did. A terrific website, NBADraft.net, graded the Spurs down with the Mahinmi pick. The site’s evaluation knocked the Spurs for not trading down and getting their guy anyway. But that doesn’t take into account the finesse moves, including possibly guaranteeing the kid a first round selection A) so he would declare and then stay eligible, and B) so he would keep himself off the stage of the Hoop Summit.
If San Antonio had promised Ian, the organization HAD to deliver when it did. Think about this, NBADraft.net : If Ian hadn’t gotten a guarantee, he wouldn’t have kept his name in! So, no, the Spurs COULDN’T have gotten him by trading down! NBADraft even thought the Spurs might have been showing off by taking an obscure guy, but Buford didn’t look like he was preening at his press conference at all. He said how he was sweating it out, and that the jury is way out on Mahinmi. I agree. The thing you wonder about with all these young athletic big men is about their hands. We won’t know if Ian can catch the ball until he comes over and gets in some NBA games in a couple of years.
Ian reminds everyone of a young Nazr Mohammed or a young Stromile Swift. Let’s remember that Nazr sometimes has trouble catching the ball and hanging on to it. But it does appear that Mahinmi is more focused on achievement than Stro has been. Basketsession.com, a European website, says of Ian that he is a defensive intimidator but, “His great force rests in his sobriety.” That he has “no superfluity.” He is not a chest-thumper, not a poser. Like, say, a David Robinson was all about business and all about his team. Our Bill Ingram was at the draft and got some comments from the 230-pound Mahinmi, who is an exceptional physical specimen. “I’m excited about playing with the Spurs. They play a team game, with everyone playing a role. I will fit well in that system. I am looking forward to playing with Tim Duncan and learning from him. That’s the best part of this (pick).”
Another thing about Ian is that he struggles a bit with the English language, so he will be working on that. Buford said frankly that Mahinmi is “very, very raw.” That, “He’s got a lot of work to do on developing a game.” The truth is that Ian is a project, but if Jerome Moiso came over for college and later earned a couple of shots at making it, this guy will certainly get his chance. The plus is that the Spurs seem to think Ian is more about substance than style, along the lines of a Tim Duncan, who seemed out of place addressing the celebrating crowds in San Antonio. The frills don’t appeal to Tim, even turn him off.
But the truth is that Tim was a deserving MVP of the Finals. Here’s how to tell. He played more minutes than Manu Ginobili, and every time Tim took a rest on the bench, it was touch-and-go if the Spurs could hang in the game. Meanwhile, when Ginobili went to the bench with foul trouble in Game Seven, the Spurs played even-up with Detroit. But Duncan is not the same as the dominant Duncan who nearly produced a quadruple-double a couple of years ago in The Finals. Tim is on his way to becoming more of a Willis Reed-type big man. He’s big enough to pin his man deep to the goal, but he’s just as apt to contribute by facing the bucket from 15-18 feet. Two moments from Game Seven stand out: His missed dunk and his baseline 19-footer to put the Spurs up 69-63.
The truth is, as time marches on, Tim and the Spurs must change. Duncan will need more help inside from young bucks like Mahinmi with almost Amare-type athleticism, and the team itself will have to be shrewd as the night owl in the draft. They appear to have finessed -- at their all-time best -- their opportunity in the draft this year, the last one in which sub-19-year-olds can apply. Speaking of the future, here's another quote. On draft night Mahinmi told HOOPSWORLD about San Antonio, “I do know that this is the best team in the world, so it’s the best place for me to be.”
By Emmett Shaw
for HOOPSWORLD.com
Jul 1, 2005, 23:44
There's only one person I know of who can deny the truth. That's the Spurs' Bruce Bowen. Everyone else must concede to the cold facts and work with them. The truth about pro basketball careers is the bell curve. Check out those curves via the spreadsheets at NBA.com or in the league's encyclopedia or register.
Players always peak their careers in their mid to late 20s, once in a great while at age 30 or 31. Over the seasons, NBA careers build up to a high couple of years, then trail off to a retirement or a place in a foreign league.
I broke down the first 20 spreadsheets of significant length of players who more or less are Bruce's size and position (Source: "The NBA Encyclopedia"). I got both Hall of Famers and role players, big scoring stars and defensive players alike:
Nick Anderson, Ron Anderson, Vincent Askew, Keith Askins, Rick Barry, Elgin Baylor, Rolando Blackman, Dudley Bradley, Bill Bradley, Carl Braun, Junior Bridgeman, Allan Bristow, Roger Brown, Tony Campbell, M.L. Carr, Cedric Ceballos, Don Chaney, Calbert Cheaney, and Doug Christie.
Using a combination of PPG, total minutes, and RPG, I derived the peak season of each of these players' careers. The average top of the bell came at age 27.75. Ron Anderson and Carl Braun were the oldest to peak, at age 31. Bill Bradley did so at age 30. Hall of Famers Barry and Baylor pushed back up to subsequent tops -- but slightly lower peaks -- at ages 31 and 34. That's how great those two were!
But how great should we then consider the now 34-years-old Bruce Bowen, who wrote his own version of the truth this past season? How about this guy having his career season at age 33? Making All-Defense (2nd place for Defensive POY), producing his highest scoring average year ever, and (compared to the above sample) playing more minutes at the same age than all but HOF guys Barry, Baylor, and Bill Bradley, 17K scorer Blackman, and Bowen's contemporary Christie.
And, oh, starting for the NBA Champions. Wow! To tell the truth, the history of Bruce Bowen proves that there are different versions of the truth, and logic and study will help to evaluate what version really is true. We know it’s true that the Spurs have had success lately in the NBA Draft, despite picking very late in the order. The Spurs are the ultimate team that picks young players overseas who stay there and develop rather than becoming a deep reserve or practice player for a while. Whether it’s the head coach or some of their players, the Spurs make their presence known in the summers in Europe. They spread some cordiality around and put out the word that San Antonio is a good place to be.
Here’s another truth. Teams mimic successful teams. Other franchises keep their eyes on the Spurs scouts across the pond. The Spurs know from past truths that they might not get their guy on draft night, and the Spurs now say – to be fair, everyone says this on draft night – that France’s 18-year-old Ian Mahinmi, whom San Antonio took at #28, was their guy this year. It was well known that Yugo Nenad Krstic, also age 18 at the time, was their guy in 2002. Not to say at all that NJ execs Rod Thorn and Ed Stefanski were just watching the Spurs instead of doing their homework, but Rod told the NY papers that everyone knew the Spurs wanted Krstic.
The Nets picked the skinny 6-11 Nenad at #24, leaving the Spurs to trade out of their 26th pick that year. (A digression: San Antonio did superbly in that scenario, landing Speedy Claxton in trade from Philadelphia. Claxton was a serious talent with an ending contract, helping the Spurs to win immediately, yet also pursue MVP-type PG Jason Kidd in 2003's FA class.) The truth of 2002 is that the lesson learned was that the Spurs would be better off keeping their preferences behind a firewall. And we also see it’s true that it’s a longshot to draft a talented big man, even a skinny kid who can’t help immediately, picking late in the 20s. The Spurs weren’t ready to push their luck in 2002, although Dan Gadzuric and Carlos Boozer were still available at #26.
Some more truth...maybe. The Spurs probably had made a promise to Nenad. It was expected that Krstic first put himself in the draft in 2002 just to get his name out there for the future. It was believed that he would pull out before the deadline. When he didn’t pull out, there was the clue. The guy got a promise from someone. When Thorn beat the Spurs to their prize by two picks, out of Round One San Antonio escaped. Fast-forward to earlier this week: In RC Buford’s press conference late on draft night (sound provided by the Spurs on their website), the Spurs’ GM was asked if he considered trading out of the first round, and he answered, “Not as long as Ian was still on the board.”
So there is the evidence that Mahinmi also could have had a promise from the Spurs. Notice that Buford mentioned at the press conference about Ian, “Once he left his name in the draft, I think it surprised some people.” RC also mentioned there that the Spurs were “sweating it for the last month.” The truth: The Spurs were sweating that someone was watching them for clues, and that possibly that someone was Seattle. Again, this is not to impugn the Sonics, who have a history of drafting quite well, but the Sonics keep their eyes and ears open. My information is that when Robert Swift quit working out for teams last year, the Sonics concluded that Swift had a promise from Boston’s Danny Ainge, in exchange for Robert keeping his talents better hidden.
Seattle then poured over as much video of Swift as they could and decided he was their guy, taking him at #12. This year, if the Sonics (who were picking 25th) got wind of who Buford was after – and if they had enough information, including even on video – the Spurs could again lose their guy. Hence the San Antonio “sweat”. And hence some clever disinformation. It seems that the Spurs were able to inject French forward Mickael Gelebale’s name into the speculation about who they might pick, and who might eventually succeed Bowen at SF. A piece of disinformation to explain their known scouting interest in France? Perhaps. Fran Fraschilla, on ESPN’s TV coverage, and Johnny Ludden of the San Antonio Express-News both may have been subtly led down the Gelebale path. The Express-News even carried a picture of Mickael the morning of the draft.
We also have the proven truth that the more a player is exposed, the greater the chance that more than one team will also make him its target. Think Ndudi Ebi in 2003. The Spurs were picking #28. When Ebi played just as well as LeBron at Michael Jordan’s schoolboy All-Star game in DC, Kevin McHale, whose T-wolves were picking 26th, fell for the tall high school SF, as did I while watching that game on television. I recommended Ebi for the Spurs in my pre-draft column here, with visions of the youngster running the wings to catch passes from Kidd and jam them, just as Ebi had so spectacularly done with Chris Paul feeding him at MCI Center.
Indeed, Ebi was San Antonio's target. The truth that McHale edged the Spurs to nab Ebi at #26, makes it true that if a team focuses in on their guy, keeping him under wraps is the best scenario. Looking at this year, notice that 6-10 Mahinmi was scheduled to play in the Nike Hoop Summit for the World Select Team. This was announced by the Fed-Ex Forum, site of the April event, a couple of weeks before the game. But then Ian was scratched from the roster. Why? Was it in those days leading up to the Summit that Mahinmi got a promise from the Spurs in exchange for his staying home? McHale, Ainge, Jerry West, Joe Dumars, or who knows who couldn’t evaluate what they couldn’t see.
The truth is that the Spurs are in a position that they can wait for players like Krstic and Mahinmi to develop, and if they are to get the best prospects for that purpose while picking as late in drafts as they do, they've learned they need to finesse the competition and play close to the vest with company secrets. This draft makes it look as if that’s just what they did. A terrific website, NBADraft.net, graded the Spurs down with the Mahinmi pick. The site’s evaluation knocked the Spurs for not trading down and getting their guy anyway. But that doesn’t take into account the finesse moves, including possibly guaranteeing the kid a first round selection A) so he would declare and then stay eligible, and B) so he would keep himself off the stage of the Hoop Summit.
If San Antonio had promised Ian, the organization HAD to deliver when it did. Think about this, NBADraft.net : If Ian hadn’t gotten a guarantee, he wouldn’t have kept his name in! So, no, the Spurs COULDN’T have gotten him by trading down! NBADraft even thought the Spurs might have been showing off by taking an obscure guy, but Buford didn’t look like he was preening at his press conference at all. He said how he was sweating it out, and that the jury is way out on Mahinmi. I agree. The thing you wonder about with all these young athletic big men is about their hands. We won’t know if Ian can catch the ball until he comes over and gets in some NBA games in a couple of years.
Ian reminds everyone of a young Nazr Mohammed or a young Stromile Swift. Let’s remember that Nazr sometimes has trouble catching the ball and hanging on to it. But it does appear that Mahinmi is more focused on achievement than Stro has been. Basketsession.com, a European website, says of Ian that he is a defensive intimidator but, “His great force rests in his sobriety.” That he has “no superfluity.” He is not a chest-thumper, not a poser. Like, say, a David Robinson was all about business and all about his team. Our Bill Ingram was at the draft and got some comments from the 230-pound Mahinmi, who is an exceptional physical specimen. “I’m excited about playing with the Spurs. They play a team game, with everyone playing a role. I will fit well in that system. I am looking forward to playing with Tim Duncan and learning from him. That’s the best part of this (pick).”
Another thing about Ian is that he struggles a bit with the English language, so he will be working on that. Buford said frankly that Mahinmi is “very, very raw.” That, “He’s got a lot of work to do on developing a game.” The truth is that Ian is a project, but if Jerome Moiso came over for college and later earned a couple of shots at making it, this guy will certainly get his chance. The plus is that the Spurs seem to think Ian is more about substance than style, along the lines of a Tim Duncan, who seemed out of place addressing the celebrating crowds in San Antonio. The frills don’t appeal to Tim, even turn him off.
But the truth is that Tim was a deserving MVP of the Finals. Here’s how to tell. He played more minutes than Manu Ginobili, and every time Tim took a rest on the bench, it was touch-and-go if the Spurs could hang in the game. Meanwhile, when Ginobili went to the bench with foul trouble in Game Seven, the Spurs played even-up with Detroit. But Duncan is not the same as the dominant Duncan who nearly produced a quadruple-double a couple of years ago in The Finals. Tim is on his way to becoming more of a Willis Reed-type big man. He’s big enough to pin his man deep to the goal, but he’s just as apt to contribute by facing the bucket from 15-18 feet. Two moments from Game Seven stand out: His missed dunk and his baseline 19-footer to put the Spurs up 69-63.
The truth is, as time marches on, Tim and the Spurs must change. Duncan will need more help inside from young bucks like Mahinmi with almost Amare-type athleticism, and the team itself will have to be shrewd as the night owl in the draft. They appear to have finessed -- at their all-time best -- their opportunity in the draft this year, the last one in which sub-19-year-olds can apply. Speaking of the future, here's another quote. On draft night Mahinmi told HOOPSWORLD about San Antonio, “I do know that this is the best team in the world, so it’s the best place for me to be.”