Arturo Galletti's statistical model likes the Spurs over the Heat.

[EJFischer]

There's a good chance you don't know who Arturo is, but he's been modeling the NBA season with remarkable accuracy for the last few years now, and has just upped his game over the rest of the online modeling field by incorporating a Kalman filter (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kalman_filter) into his projections, to improve on the technique that most other modelers use where they try to capture momentum by overvaluing the last 10 games or so. (Hollinger does this; it's fairly widespread, but ad-hoc.)

Assuming no deeply influential trades or season-altering injuries, his projection has the Spurs as favorites for the championship. Link: http://wagesofwins.com/2013/02/19/nba-rankings-all-star-breaks-and-last-call-before-the-trade-deadline/

(Note: I'm putting this here in case there are other people on the forum who enjoy rigorous statistical work, as opposed to perception-confirming models like PER or meaninglessly noisy systems like +/-. While I endorse this model as the most mathematically sound I know of online, it's not my own, and I won't be replying to comments in this thread. Have fun with Arturo's numbers.)

[spurraider21]

Did they have the spurs winning it all last year too?

[Man In Black]

Interesting... I like it, we want this guy to be right.

[Seventyniner]

Is this the same guy from Wages of Wins? IIRC they had the Spurs' chances of winning the WCF last year at 98%...before the series even started.

It also makes sense that the team with the best record is the favorite. Places that favor OC do so based on point differential.

FWIW I still strongly believe that last year's WCF was an upset. I think if you play that series 100 times, the Spurs win at least 70.

[look_at_g_shred]

Does it factor in the refs too? Because we all know that Kevin Durant get's to the line at least 10 times a game easy. Funny thing is, during the All-Star game when Kevin would drive he got hit pretty good, yet no call. If it was a regular/playoff game, it would have been called!!

[ThaBigFundamental21]

Honestly, officiating worries me. I felt we were hosed against OKC last year.

[Uriel]

Just about every statistical model on the planet favors the Spurs to win. (Hollinger's Power Rankings, Simple Rating System, you name it)

Just like last year. :depressed

[racm]

My only complaint about these metrics is that they don't account for refs.

That said, IIRC Miami had the best 3 players - but Dallas was better from top to bottom, and who won?

[KL2]

I like SA over the Heat too, however it'll be the Spurs vs the Heat and the refs. And just like last year against OKC the refs will pull through.

[DesignatedT]

Honestly, officiating worries me. I felt we were hosed against OKC last year.

Seeing calls like this down the stretch in game 6 last year should definitely worry you.


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wTpo9pUmZpU

[Captivus]

Im gonna take a deeper look to this later...I do this kind of simulations myself...but with oilfields...

[BatManu20]

Seeing calls like this down the stretch in game 6 last year should definitely worry you.


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wTpo9pUmZpU

God that is so bad... f*ckin refs were beyond horrible.

[mabrignani]

always trust an italian

[mabrignani]

God that is so bad... f*ckin refs were beyond horrible.

you cant just run into someone in basketball lol

[BatManu20]

I'm sure it had us winning it all last year too. I put nothing into those numbers anymore. Spurs have had the best record on the league two straight years, and both years fizzled out. It's all about what they bring to court on game day.

[Man In Black]

Last year the defense was just south of Casper the friendly ghost. This year the defense is almost as if Bowen himself is on the court. He's just younger, taller, longer and sports corn rows and named Kawhi.

[hater]

numbers are nice and all but

1) Most fine physical basketball specimen in his prime
2) Top 10 clutch playoff performer
3) Top 15 bigman in the game
4) HOF 3pt shooter and one of the most clutch performers in the game
5) Top 5 defensive specialist and dead eye clutch 3 point shooter

Your 2013 Champs, the Miami Heat

[racm]

Last year the defense was just south of Casper the friendly ghost. This year the defense is almost as if Bowen himself is on the court. He's just younger, taller, longer and sports corn rows and named Kawhi.

Timmy also blocks more shots, Tiago is a good P&R defender, and the Spurs make opponents brick 3s well.

[Quasar]

numbers are nice and all but

1) Most fine physical basketball specimen in his prime
2) Top 10 clutch playoff performer
3) Top 15 bigman in the game
4) HOF 3pt shooter and one of the most clutch performers in the game
5) Top 5 defensive specialist and dead eye clutch 3 point shooter

Your 2013 Champs, the Miami Heat

1. Parker
2. Manu
3. Duncan & Splitter
4. Jax / Neal /Green
5. Leonard

:D

[exstatic]

numbers are nice and all but

1) Most fine physical basketball specimen in his prime
2) Top 10 clutch playoff performer
3) Top 15 bigman in the game
4) HOF 3pt shooter and one of the most clutch performers in the game
5) Top 5 defensive specialist and dead eye clutch 3 point shooter

Your 2013 Champs, the Miami Heat

None of that obscures the fact that while robust on the perimeter, Miami is ultimately nothing more than a donut defense. They're weak in the post and at the rim.

[dunkman]

None of that obscures the fact that while robust on the perimeter, Miami is ultimately nothing more than a donut defense. They're weak in the post and at the rim.

It didn't prevent the Bulls from dominating the 90's, though.

[Old School 44]

Another big thing favoring the Heat, is they pretty much have a bye into the finals. Who's going to stop them? The Pacers? Stern won't allow it. The Knicks, Brooklyn, Chicago? Not a chance.

In the West, whether it be the Spurs, OKC or Clips, it's a much tougher road. After these three, Look at the rest of the potential playoff teams....Memphis, Denver, Golden State, Utah, Houston. Milwaukee, the team currently in the 8th spot out East, is below .500.

[Darkwaters]

Another big thing favoring the Heat, is they pretty much have a bye into the finals. Who's going to stop them? The Pacers? Stern won't allow it. The Knicks, Brooklyn, Chicago? Not a chance.

In the West, whether it be the Spurs, OKC or Clips, it's a much tougher road. After these three, Look at the rest of the potential playoff teams....Memphis, Denver, Golden State, Utah, Houston. Milwaukee, the team currently in the 8th spot out East, is below .500.

Historically over the last few seasons it isn't unusual for the East to have two teams in the playoffs with losing records.

On the flip side, it hasn't been unusual for Western teams, with winning records, to miss the playoffs.

So thats definitely a factor. The Heat won't face more than just a mere speedbump to another finals appearance.

[TampaDude]

God that is so bad... f*ckin refs were beyond horrible.

The fix was clearly in...but not for OKC. Stern didn't want the Heat to have to face the Spurs in the Finals. He wanted his golden boy LeBron to get that ring.

This year, it's our turn. Spurs in 6. #5 is in the bag.

[jimbo]

Heat are coasting, no model is accounting for that tbh

[OrEmuN]

No worries about the referees this season !
Pop have paid a $250k bribe to Stern...