NBA: Official FT/FGA watch [Archive]

ambchang

03-09-2013, 11:16 PM

As the season is coming to a close, it is time to look at the number of free throws shot per field goal shot. It's only natural that a team shooting more FG will shoot more FTs, and there are bound to have disparities, as some teams just have a more low post oriented style that warrants more FTs.

The interesting thing is that, earlier this year, OKC was far and away #1, and deep into the season, they are still #1 by a huge margin.

They shoot 0.282 FT/FGA, and that is 0.047 FT/FGA more than the 2nd team (surprise surprise) LA Lakers. When you put that into perspective, that is the same difference as #2 LA Lakers with #21 Trail Blazers.

As the WC teams are fighting for the #6 to 8 seed, I would like to track the FT/FGA of these teams for the final 20 or so games.

As we speak:

LA Lakers is #2 with 0.235
Rockets are #3 with 0.231
Jazz are #6 with 0.225
Warriors are #13 with 0.209

Let's see how those numbers evolve.

EDIT:
The numbers posted above were FTM/FGA, so it is not really indicative of what I am trying to accomplish. I have recalculated those numbers based on FTA/FGA.

The interesting thing is that OKC is no longer THAT far ahead in terms of numbers, they shot 0.341 FTA/FGA, only 0.00376 more than 2nd place LAL. At the same time, LAL is 0.02547 more than 3rd place MIN, which is the same difference as #3 from #12 IND. Put that in perspective, the only difference larger between a team's FTA/FTM with the next ranked than the LAL-MIN difference is between the #28 ranked Suns and #29 ranked 76ers, with a difference of 0.03793. The next biggest difference is between the Pistons and the Kings of 0.00918, and that is about 40% difference than the LAL-MIN difference. In other words, the difference between #2 ranked LAL and #3 ranked MIN is HUGE.

As of yesterday, the 4 teams of interest have the following numbers:
LAL, #2, 0.337
HOU, #5, 0.305
UTA, #8, 0.293
GSW, #19, 0.261

Also, the intention for me checking the numbers was originally to make fun of OKC, I noticed something funny with the numbers and dug deeper, and seems like it really touched off the Laker fans.

midnightpulp

03-09-2013, 11:23 PM

LkrFan

03-09-2013, 11:28 PM

midnightpulp

03-09-2013, 11:34 PM

:lolP - at least act like you are confident in your team. After all, they are the top dogs (record wise) in the association. Might not mean much - given your recent history - but at least you're not fighting for a playoff spot. :)

Me observing Stern's pro-Lakers agenda has nothing to do with the confidence I have in the Spurs. Not sure how you extrapolated that idea from my comment.

As for my confidence in the Spurs. I think their ceiling is the WCF.

Bynumite

03-09-2013, 11:36 PM

The Lakers will significantly widen their margin over those 3 teams. I expect the Lakers' FTAs to increase and the other three teams' FTAs to decrease disproportionately as they battle Stern's beloved for playoff spots.

And right on cue, the Suns have shot 15 more FTs than the Rockets in tonight's game. :lol

Houston could always stop shooting so many 3's and actually attack the basket for a change, that could help them in the FT department... just saying.

Another 40+ 3 point attempts game for the Rockets :lol

Midnightbutthurt with the conspiracy theory bads per par.

dunkman

03-09-2013, 11:38 PM

The Lakers are making the playoffs, guaranteed!

LkrFan

03-09-2013, 11:40 PM

Me observing Stern's pro-Lakers agenda has nothing to do with the confidence I have in the Spurs. Not sure how you extrapolated that idea from my comment.

As for my confidence in the Spurs. I think their ceiling is the WCF.
Uh, :lolP = ambchang, not mid. Anywho, your ceiling is the Lakers if we meet. Neal with it son.

midnightpulp

03-09-2013, 11:40 PM

Houston could always stop shooting so many 3's and actually attack the basket for a change, that could help them in the FT department... just saying.

Another 40+ 3 point attempts game for the Rockets :lol

Midnightbutthurt with the conspiracy theory bads per par.

:lol The Lakers chuck nearly as much from downtown, and Kobe is about the only player who attacks the basket, yet the Lakers still shoot 30 freethrows per game.

:madrun Why don't you ever give my Lakers credit, midnight? They're a good team, dammit! :madrun

LkrFan

03-09-2013, 11:40 PM

The Lakers are making the playoffs, guaranteed!
I see you are finally sober, drunkman. :tu

midnightpulp

03-09-2013, 11:41 PM

Uh, :lolP = ambchang, not mid. Anywho, your ceiling is the Lakers if we meet. Neal with it son.

Care to put your money where your mouth is?

LkrFan

03-09-2013, 11:43 PM

Care to put your money where your mouth is?
TBD, tbh. If we enter the playoffs with a full deck, I'll consider it.

Clipper Nation

03-09-2013, 11:47 PM

Houston could always stop shooting so many 3's and actually attack the basket for a change, that could help them in the FT department... just saying.

The Lakers are third in the NBA in team three point attempts, right behind Houston.... Houston is also second in the NBA in team FGA at the rim, whereas the Lakers are only 13th.... yet the Lakers lead the NBA in FTA/game and Houston is only fifth...

midnightpulp

03-09-2013, 11:48 PM

The Lakers are third in the NBA in team three point attempts, right behind Houston.... Houston is also second in the NBA in team FGA at the rim, whereas the Lakers are only 13th.... yet the Lakers lead the NBA in FTA/game and Houston is only fifth...

:lol Bynunite
:lol retarded

Bynumite

03-09-2013, 11:50 PM

:lol The Lakers chuck nearly as much from downtown, and Kobe is about the only player who attacks the basket, yet the Lakers still shoot 30 freethrows per game.

Lakers are only averaging 2 more FTs than Houston and let's not forget the fact that teams intentionally foul Dwight.

midnightpulp

03-09-2013, 11:53 PM

TBD, tbh. If we enter the playoffs with a full deck, I'll consider it.

Where's all this confidence coming from?

Remember:

- I've been here the whole time but have nothing to say. The Lakers suck major ass. I figure why continue to log onto ST, prop them up, only to see with my own eyes that they don't give a shit. If they don't care, why should I?

*Lakers escape with wins against shitty, tanking teams, and now:

No one can stop us!

You really are a shameless homer, aren't you?

midnightpulp

03-09-2013, 11:58 PM

Lakers are only averaging 2 more FTs than Houston and let's not forget the fact that teams intentionally foul Dwight.

And they should continue to average 2 less FTs than the Lakers. But ever since the Lakers got "hot," I've noticed a trend of the Lakers FTAs increasing and the FTAs decreasing for the teams who are in direct competition with the Lakers.

Is what it is, bro. Stern loves you. "Lakers vs. Lakers." The league would lose millions in revenue without the Lakers in the post-season.

Did you forget basketball is a business above all else?

dunkman

03-09-2013, 11:58 PM

I see you are finally sober, drunkman. :tu

Sober and 101%, LkrFag :tu :lol

LkrFan

03-10-2013, 12:02 AM

Where's all this confidence coming from?

Remember:

*Lakers escape with wins against shitty, tanking teams, and now:

You really are a shameless homer, aren't you?
Oh the old search post history to use it against your foe tactic is live and well I see. :lol I'll readily admit I was pissed and I'm still not happy with my boys. I expected much more. I still do.

This season was mostly a train wreck to say the least. However, as we began to get healthy we have begun to play better. Are we peaking? No because our 3rd best player still isn't playing yet (although he's getting close :toast). I expect us to start playing harder as they get closer to the playoffs. When they get there, if healthy, I give them a good chance at having playoff success. Especially if we play the Spurs. :)

midnightpulp

03-10-2013, 12:06 AM

Oh the old search post history to use it against your foe tactic is live and well I see. :lol I'll readily admit I was pissed and I'm still not happy with my boys. I expected much more. I still do.

This season was mostly a train wreck to say the least. However, as we began to get healthy we have begun to play better. Are we peaking? No because our 3rd best player still isn't playing yet (although he's getting close :toast). I expect us to start playing harder as they get closer to the playoffs. When they get there, if healthy, I give them a good chance at having playoff success. Especially if we play the Spurs. :)

You're playing about as hard as you can, and it's still taking you miracles to beat the likes of the Pelicans and Raptors.

Once you're capable of preventing teams from routinely dropping 60 point halves on you, maybe I'll take the Lakers seriously. Maybe. Until then, first round fodder.

Bynumite

03-10-2013, 12:33 AM

And they should continue to average 2 less FTs than the Lakers. But ever since the Lakers got "hot," I've noticed a trend of the Lakers FTAs increasing and the FTAs decreasing for the teams who are in direct competition with the Lakers.

Is what it is, bro. Stern loves you. "Lakers vs. Lakers." The league would lose millions in revenue without the Lakers in the post-season.

Did you forget basketball is a business above all else?

Spurs won 4 titles and a rerun of Family Ties has better ratings than a spurs playoff game. Where were Stern's business priorities during those years?

:cry Spurfan: "Once evil Stern retires order will be restored and we will get a fair shot at a title." :cry Pathetic :lol

midnightpulp

03-10-2013, 12:42 AM

Spurs won 4 titles and a rerun of Family Ties has better ratings than a spurs playoff game. Where were Stern's business priorities during those years?

:cry Spurfan: "Once evil Stern retires order will be restored and we will get a fair shot at a title." :cry Pathetic :lol

Beat the odds. Just how great the Spurs organization is.

But I'll remember how you didn't believe the NBA was rigged when you're complaining about the 60FTAs the Thunder (right now, the Lakers are somewhat on the backburner and Stern wants to manufacture Bird vs. Magic 2.0 with Durant and Lebron) are getting if you play them in the 1st round.

JamStone

03-10-2013, 12:57 AM

Dwight Howard skews the Lakers FTA pretty drastically. He shoots nearly as many free throws as field goal attempts. He, not Kobe, leads the team in average FTA. Strong finisher at the rim, good offensive rebounder, horrible free throw shooter. He's a huge reason the Lakers shoot as many free throws as they do. Not the only reason, but a very, very big reason. Teams prefer him shooting free throws than attempting dunks. And regardless if the opposing team is up or down, fouling Dwight and putting him on the line is always a strategic option.

LkrFan

03-10-2013, 06:36 AM

Sportstudi

03-10-2013, 06:48 AM

Thread

03-10-2013, 06:52 AM

a rerun of Family Ties has better ratings than a spurs playoff game.

:lmao

Mal

03-10-2013, 07:55 AM

Shit. This make me sad..

Latarian Milton

03-10-2013, 09:55 AM

ambchang

03-10-2013, 06:30 PM

Not sure how Laker fans are somehow tying this to the Spurs, really no kind of relationship between the Spurs and this thread, but I guess when there is so much obsession and people being overly defensive, you see funny things where people try to tie things together and try to divert the topic at hand.

This thread is not meant to be an attack or anything, just a way to look at how the league behaves in general. Funny how there are really no talks about GSW or the Jazz, and only a little big about the Rockets. Almost all responses have been about defending the Lakers, I guess people do get up tight when issues hit home.

Anyways, warrants an update, I would welcome updates from others throughout this time as this is quite a laborious exercise.

Note that the figures above are all FTM/FGA, when I originally thought it was FTA/FGA. For the purposes of the study, I will have to redo the figures later, and rerank the teams:

Last night, the Rockets shot 18 FT on 86 attempts, that is 0.209 FT/FGA, much lower than their 0.305 for the season.
At the same time, the Suns 39 out of 82 FGA, that is an astounding 0.390 FT/FGA, which is way higher than their season average of 0.236, and even higher than the Rockets season opponents average of 0.197.

In the Warriors game, they were 20/82, or 0.244, vs 0.261 for the season. That said, the Bucks only shot 19 on 78, which is 0.244, vs. 0.248 for the season, with the Warriors opponents shooting 0.291. This pretty much balances things out.

In the Jazz game, the numbers are Jazz with 21/78 for the game (0.269) vs. 0.293 for the season. The Knicks were an astounding 30/75 (0.4) vs. season averages of 0.265, or Jazz opponents of 0.294.

GSW, Jazz and Rockets all lost.

ambchang

03-11-2013, 10:10 AM

On second thought, I think that graphs tell a better story than words, as it seems that most basketball fans are not number crunchers anyways, so I have created a chart tracking the cumulative FTA/FGA of each team. I have started with game 43, as that is when the LAL had a sudden surge in standings.

http://imageshack.us/a/img89/3875/ftafga.jpg

Team means what FTA/FGA a particular team is shooting, while Opp shows the FTA/FGA of a team's opponent. For example, Hou-Opp is the cumulative average of the FTA/FGA of the opponents of Houston after a certain number of games.

Given that this is a cumulative graph, and we are starting with games 43 for each team, it requires quite a large amount of change to really move the line in either direction.

In summary, the LAL are pretty much staying on course, shooting about the same ratio of FTA/FGA, and yet, their opponents FTA/FGA seems to be plummeting like a rock. What is even more interesting is that the LAL, a team largely cited as too old and plays bad defense, is so low in opponent FTA/FGA, when usually a slower team reaches on defense and commits a high number of fouls, but hey, the league is impartial.

Going down the chart, HOU's FTA/FGA dropped large amount before rebounding significantly since game 59, but at the same time, their Opponents number have been shooting up quite dramatically.

Utah, the team most likely to fight with LAL for the last playoff spot, is actually holding steady in both team and opponent FTA/FGA.

Lastly, GSW is holding steady as a team, while there is a slight by steady increase for opponent numbers.

Thread

03-11-2013, 10:21 AM

^Only pussies & assholes tote up FT inclinations.

ambchang

03-11-2013, 11:28 AM

Too bad you can't understand numbers outside of simple <, > =.

You must be very happy, ignorance is bliss.

Thread

03-11-2013, 11:37 AM

You must be very happy

Kobe: 5

the tired old shit bag Duncan: 4

supplies happy.

ambchang

03-11-2013, 12:15 PM

Good for you.

Thread

03-11-2013, 12:21 PM

Good for you.

lettin' Oklahoma take yer cookie that-a-way.

tee, hee.

OKC

03-11-2013, 12:30 PM

OKC and FT stats really boil down to KD and RW. Now to be fair, both guys are good at flopping. Neither player really is doing any fine worthy flopping, but flopping in the sense that they know how to sell the call. Could it be annoying as an opposing fan to watch? Yeah, but you also gotta tip your hat a little bit to the art of what they're doing. Together they shoot, what, 16 FT's a game? Beyond these 2 games, with the exception of Martin, OKC is not a heavy FT shooting team by any means. There are games where KD and RW shoot 20 FT's between them and literally 18 of them are legit foul attempts. RW is unguardable. He's magnificent at getting the defender between a rock and a hard place. Defenders usually give RW a little space beyond the arc to protect off the dribble because hes not a great shooter. Backpedaling...will he drive on you or pull up? Many times the defender will bite on RW's motion to pull up, RW sees defefnder biting on a pull up so he drives, defender can't recover and is totally baited into the foul. Yes, at times the foul is probably not a legit foul, but these are fouls that refs will call more times than not because the defender was clearly in recovery mode. KD, same thing, but different. Defenders don't give KD space like they do RW. They smother him and he often times catches defenders in positions where he pulls the mini rip move and at least gets the call on the floor. At the same time, KD's long and scrawny build lends itself to the appearance of him being fouled when in fact he is not. He gets phantom calls. I'm one that believes KD probably gets a FEW to many calls. I like a game not called too tight. I like to see them play a little more. I do think though that one has to tip their hat to how these two guys get to the line. There's some middle ground here guys. The two guys are legitimately fouled a lot..a lot more than you think. At the same time both guys get their phantom calls in the ways I mentioned.

ambchang

03-11-2013, 02:52 PM

lettin' Oklahoma take yer cookie that-a-way.

tee, hee.

Just like how the Lakers let Dwight take theirs.

Thread

03-11-2013, 03:17 PM

Just like how the Lakers let Dwight take theirs.

We bled out Bynum. Ain't over yet with Howard. It can still turn out peaches.

& you know it.

Captivus

03-11-2013, 03:44 PM

I would do the same calculation (FTA/FGA), but I would substract the center position stats. D12, Asik, TD...etc.
And then make the comparison.
It is also clear that players like Harden, Westbrook, Kobe attack the basket more than others, so its normal that they have more FTA.
At the end, we are trying to support what we see with stats, and that is: The league helps some teams. Maybe stats cant show it, but me eyes dont lie.

Seventyniner

03-11-2013, 04:25 PM

rockets shooting almost as many FTs as lakers ain't no surprise imho, the rockets are like the league's spokesperson to the whole asian-pacific market and their fan base might be even better than the lakers in number. lakers started to receive extra foodstamps no earlier than the all-star break while the rockets have been living on stern's subsidies the entire season and that's the main reason why they're where they're now. what's even more atrocious is that the rockets get about half of their points from 3's and they rarely attack the rim, yet still collect more FT chances than almost every other team which's hilarious tbh

This is the type of fallacious reasoning I see quite often. The three best ways to score are layups/dunks, free throws, and threes. The Rockets shooting a ton of threes doesn't mean they can't get a lot of free throws also. Instead, they shoot a lot of threes and a lot of free throws by not shooting much from midrange.

Per Hoopdata, the percentage of shots that the Rockets take from different distances breaks down as:
39.0% at the rim (3rd in the league, average is 32.1%)
9.9% 3-9 feet (23rd in the league, average is 11.4%)
3.8% 10-15 feet (30th in the league, average is 7.9%)
13.1% 16-23 feet (30th in the league, average is 13.1%)
35.7% three pointers (2nd in the league, average is 25.0%)

Needless to say, you get most of your free throws on shots at the rim. The Thunder, however, lead the league in FT/FGA by a wide margin but only take 32.4% of their shots at the rim (13th in the league). It would be more interesting if Hoopdata included shooting fouls (where someone is actually fouled in the act of shooting, not just when their team is in the penalty); I'd imagine many of OC's free throws come on missed shots at the rim when they were fouled, therefore those wouldn't show up as FGA.

OKC

03-11-2013, 05:45 PM

This is the type of fallacious reasoning I see quite often. The three best ways to score are layups/dunks, free throws, and threes. The Rockets shooting a ton of threes doesn't mean they can't get a lot of free throws also. Instead, they shoot a lot of threes and a lot of free throws by not shooting much from midrange.

Per Hoopdata, the percentage of shots that the Rockets take from different distances breaks down as:
39.0% at the rim (3rd in the league, average is 32.1%)
9.9% 3-9 feet (23rd in the league, average is 11.4%)
3.8% 10-15 feet (30th in the league, average is 7.9%)
13.1% 16-23 feet (30th in the league, average is 13.1%)
35.7% three pointers (2nd in the league, average is 25.0%)

Needless to say, you get most of your free throws on shots at the rim. The Thunder, however, lead the league in FT/FGA by a wide margin but only take 32.4% of their shots at the rim (13th in the league). It would be more interesting if Hoopdata included shooting fouls (where someone is actually fouled in the act of shooting, not just when their team is in the penalty); I'd imagine many of OC's free throws come on missed shots at the rim when they were fouled, therefore those wouldn't show up as FGA.

Good points. While I recognize some superstar calls going In KDs favor, these stats have to be taken with a grain of salt. Unless its an and-1 a foul on a missed shot attempt does not count as FGA. Obviously, players who are ultra aggressive are going to skew these stats as more aggression and FT attempts equates to fewer shot attempts. People will compare RW to a Parker and FT stats. People will contend that Parker attempts as many at rim attempts as RW but one also has to consider the nature o such attempts. Every seen RW attempt a tear drop? Me either. Parker- all the time.

ambchang

03-12-2013, 08:49 AM

Another day, another update.
Of the four teams, GSW and UTA played last night, let's see how this turns out.

In the UTA-DET game, the Jazz shot 15/81, which translates to 0.185FTA/FGA, that compares to their season average of 0.292. However, the Pistons shot 18/80, or 0.225, compared to 0.284 for the season. While both teams had lower FTA/FGA than their respective season averages, the Jazz had a much bigger drop.

Luckily for the Jazz, the Pistons really are that bad, and the Jazz still won the game.

In the GSW-NYK game, the Warriors shot 24/78 (0.308) vs. season average of 0.262. All seemed fine and good, until you look at the Knicks number, 28 of 73, or an astounding 0.384, when their season average was only 0.266.

Hate to say this, but we really are seeing a trend where GSW, UTA and HOU are all either suddenly shooting less FTs, or their opponents are suddenly shooting more in almost every game.

Let's see how this pans out for the remaining 18 or so games.

ambchang

03-13-2013, 09:30 AM

Another day, another update.

The LAL-ORL was pretty much a meaningless game, as the Magic was obviously trying to embarrass Howard, and winning the game was secondary. Regardless, it's a game, and in the grand scheme of things, this is one out of 82 games, so the averages will not be skewed greatly.

LAL shot 47 FTs on 73 FGs, that is a 0.64 FTA/FGA, that compared to their 0.34 of the season. However, as stated above, this is does not really reflect that much, the interesting thing is looking at the Magic numbers.

They shot 17/93, which is a paltry 0.18 FTA/FGA, this compared to the 0.23 FTA/FGA of the Orlando Magic, and also Laker opponent average. That translates to about 4 less FTA per game that, in the grand scheme of things, is not likely to sway the final results.

ambchang

03-14-2013, 09:43 AM

Here we go folks, today is the first day where the numbers are NOT what I expected (ie. Lakers getting an unusually high number of FTAs/LA opponents getting an unusually low number of FTA, while HOU, GSW and UTA gets the opposition). In fact, all the numbers are reversed of what I expected!

LAL - ATL
LA shot 16 vs. 92, or 0.174 FTA/FGA vs 0.338 for the season, while ATL was 21/79 (0.266 for the game) vs. 0.237 for the season and 0.259 for LA opponents. Not surprisingly, ATL won the game. Keep in mind though, the last 6 FTA for ATL were intention fouls by the Lakers. Take those 6 off, and we have 0.190 for ATL.

PHO-HOU
Hou shot 30/76 for 0.395, vs. season average of 0.306, while PHO shot 10/81 for 0.123 vs. season average of 0.235 and HOU opponents of 0.254. That said, the Suns weren't going to win anyways, and the entire 2nd half was pretty much garbage time. League doing its thing to make the numbers balance out.

UTA-OKC
This is like a double whammy for Utah, or so I expected. I mean, fighting with LAL for the last playoff spot AND going up against OKC? I thought the Jazz will shoot like 12 FTA vs. 46 for OKC, but I was wrong. Very wrong. Utah shot 33/80 for 0.4125 vs season average of 0.294, while OKC was 33 for 69 for 0.478, as opposed to season average of 0.342 or Utah opponents of 0.296. Both teams shot more FTs than usual, just that, OKC still shot more.

GSW-DET
GSW had 25/72 for 0.347 vs season average of 0.240, while DET was 14/89 for 0.158 vs. 0.282 season average, or 0.276.

OKC

03-14-2013, 10:00 AM

UTA-OKC
This is like a double whammy for Utah, or so I expected. I mean, fighting with LAL for the last playoff spot AND going up against OKC? I thought the Jazz will shoot like 12 FTA vs. 46 for OKC, but I was wrong. Very wrong. Utah shot 33/80 for 0.4125 vs season average of 0.294, while OKC was 33 for 69 for 0.478, as opposed to season average of 0.342 or Utah opponents of 0.296. Both teams shot more FTs than usual, just that, OKC still shot more.

Dellusional, victim mentality spursfans. Yeah, you woulda thought it'd be 12 to 46 in FTs because the refs surely got together and decided UTAH needed to lose to promote the Lakers playoffs hopes, right? And in doing so, proceeded to gift OKC an astonishing 12 first half free throw attempts...I think KD and RW shot like 6 of those. I have no idea how OKC built a 20 pt halftime lead without the help of the refs,given they are just an average team without all of those handouts.