Green Cars Have a Dirty Little Secret

[DarrinS]

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887324128504578346913994914472.html





Electric cars are promoted as the chic harbinger of an environmentally benign future. Ads assure us of "zero emissions," and President Obama has promised a million on the road by 2015. With sales for 2012 coming in at about 50,000, that million-car figure is a pipe dream. Consumers remain wary of the cars' limited range, higher price and the logistics of battery-charging. But for those who do own an electric car, at least there is the consolation that it's truly green, right? Not really.

For proponents such as the actor and activist Leonardo DiCaprio, the main argument is that their electric cars—whether it's a $100,000 Fisker Karma (Mr. DiCaprio's ride) or a $28,000 Nissan Leaf—don't contribute to global warming. And, sure, electric cars don't emit carbon-dioxide on the road. But the energy used for their manufacture and continual battery charges certainly does—far more than most people realize.

A 2012 comprehensive life-cycle analysis in Journal of Industrial Ecology shows that almost half the lifetime carbon-dioxide emissions from an electric car come from the energy used to produce the car, especially the battery. The mining of lithium, for instance, is a less than green activity. By contrast, the manufacture of a gas-powered car accounts for 17% of its lifetime carbon-dioxide emissions. When an electric car rolls off the production line, it has already been responsible for 30,000 pounds of carbon-dioxide emission. The amount for making a conventional car: 14,000 pounds.

While electric-car owners may cruise around feeling virtuous, they still recharge using electricity overwhelmingly produced with fossil fuels. Thus, the life-cycle analysis shows that for every mile driven, the average electric car indirectly emits about six ounces of carbon-dioxide. This is still a lot better than a similar-size conventional car, which emits about 12 ounces per mile. But remember, the production of the electric car has already resulted in sizeable emissions—the equivalent of 80,000 miles of travel in the vehicle.

So unless the electric car is driven a lot, it will never get ahead environmentally. And that turns out to be a challenge. Consider the Nissan Leaf. It has only a 73-mile range per charge. Drivers attempting long road trips, as in one BBC test drive, have reported that recharging takes so long that the average speed is close to six miles per hour—a bit faster than your average jogger. :lol


To make matters worse, the batteries in electric cars fade with time, just as they do in a cellphone. Nissan estimates that after five years, the less effective batteries in a typical Leaf bring the range down to 55 miles. As the MIT Technology Review cautioned last year: "Don't Drive Your Nissan Leaf Too Much."

If a typical electric car is driven 50,000 miles over its lifetime, the huge initial emissions from its manufacture means the car will actually have put more carbon-dioxide in the atmosphere than a similar-size gasoline-powered car driven the same number of miles. Similarly, if the energy used to recharge the electric car comes mostly from coal-fired power plants, it will be responsible for the emission of almost 15 ounces of carbon-dioxide for every one of the 50,000 miles it is driven—three ounces more than a similar gas-powered car.

Even if the electric car is driven for 90,000 miles and the owner stays away from coal-powered electricity, the car will cause just 24% less carbon-dioxide emission than its gas-powered cousin. This is a far cry from "zero emissions." Over its entire lifetime, the electric car will be responsible for 8.7 tons of carbon dioxide less than the average conventional car.

Those 8.7 tons may sound like a considerable amount, but it's not. The current best estimate of the global warming damage of an extra ton of carbon-dioxide is about $5. This means an optimistic assessment of the avoided carbon-dioxide associated with an electric car will allow the owner to spare the world about $44 in climate damage. On the European emissions market, credit for 8.7 tons of carbon-dioxide costs $48.

Yet the U.S. federal government essentially subsidizes electric-car buyers with up to $7,500. In addition, more than $5.5 billion in federal grants and loans go directly to battery and electric-car manufacturers like California-based Fisker Automotive and Tesla Motors TSLA +0.56%. This is a very poor deal for taxpayers.

The electric car might be great in a couple of decades but as a way to tackle global warming now it does virtually nothing. The real challenge is to get green energy that is cheaper than fossil fuels. That requires heavy investment in green research and development. Spending instead on subsidizing electric cars is putting the cart before the horse, and an inconvenient and expensive cart at that.

[TeyshaBlue]

All innovations have a beginning and a process Darrin.:rolleyes

[TeyshaBlue]

That article fails on so many points, it's hard to believe it made print.

[Drachen]

I applaud such studies, but would like to see a more comprehensive one including, for example, the environmental cost of the fuel to the automobile. Also, don't assume coal for the power generation, assume the average mix of power generation.

among other things

[DarrinS]

All innovations have a beginning and a process Darrin.

That's fine. I won't be an adopter of this innovation until it is worth it.


That article fails on so many points, it's hard to believe it made print.

Thanks for elaborating.

[TeyshaBlue]

That's fine. I won't be an adopter of this innovation until it is worth it.



Thanks for elaborating.

Start with the premise and work your way out from there. See "Begging the Question".

[LnGrrrR]

DarrinS in the 60s: Computers will never be practical for your average home user, as they take up entire buildings.

[Th'Pusher]

DarrinS the ludite engineer.

[DarrinS]

DarrinS in the 60s: Computers will never be practical for your average home user, as they take up entire buildings.


I'm pretty sure electric cars will remain car-sized, but they will still require energy from somewhere.

[Fabbs]

So unless the electric car is driven a lot, it will never get ahead environmentally. And that turns out to be a challenge. Consider the Nissan Leaf. It has only a 73-mile range per charge. Drivers attempting long road trips, as in one BBC test drive, have reported that recharging takes so long that the average speed is close to six miles per hour—a bit faster than your average jogger.
The older couple from Michigan with PHDs in electrical made a battery decades ago that did just fine.
GM conned them into selling the patent rights and then in turn sold it to Texaco to be mothballed forever.
"Who killed the electric car."

The tech exists and has for years.

[ElNono]

Lots of 'ifs' there...

- if the manufacturing process doesn't improve as volume increases
- if the energy consumed comes from fossil fuels

etc..

Plus AFAIK, the idea is to reduce emissions, not flat out eliminate them.

[Wild Cobra]

One thing that isn't a "if". Look at the average life of a vehicle when you consider accidents. The green vehicles hardly have a better green footprint.

Didn't we discuss such things a few years ago? I could swear we covered the batter making process and end of life recycling costs and impacts before.

[ElNono]

I'm pretty sure electric cars will remain car-sized, but they will still require energy from somewhere.

Thus increased research on fossil-fuel free energy sources...

[ElNono]

One thing that isn't a "if". Look at the average life of a vehicle when you consider accidents. The green vehicles hardly have a better green footprint.

Didn't we discuss such things a few years ago? I could swear we covered the batter making process and end of life recycling costs and impacts before.

I might have wasted my time discussing that or pretty much anything with you...

[boutons_deux]

Good And Green Reasons To Buy An Electric Car This Year (http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2013/03/14/1699311/good-and-green-reasons-to-buy-an-electric-car-this-year/)


“I should drive my current car into th ground.”

“Hold on,” you say to yourself, “I already own a car that gets 25 miles a gallon. I want to gt my money’s worth from the investment.” The sooner you start saving gas, the better it is for the planet and your pocketbook. There’s no use in throwing good money after bad at the pump, and the sooner you sell your current car, the less money you’ll lose to depreciation.


“I’d just be switching my pollution from the tailpipe to the power plant.”

If you want to go green, driving on electricity is a clear winner. Using today’s average American electricity mix of natural gas, coal, nuclear, hydro, wind, geothermal, and solar, an electric car emits half the amount of climate-changing carbon pollution per mile as the average new vehicle. In states with cleaner mixes, such as California, it’s only a quarter as much. To find out how clean your electric car would be today, plug your zip code into the EPA’s “Beyond Tailpipe Emissions Calculator.” You should also know that, because old coal plants are increasingly being retired and replaced by cleaner and renewable resources, plug-in cars are the only cars that become cleaner as they age.


“What I save on gas, I’ll pay in electricity.”

On average US residential electricity rates, driving one of today’s electric cars is the equivalent of driving a 27 mile-per-gallon car on buck-a-gallon gasoline. It’s been that way for the last four decades, and is forecasted to stay that way for the next three decades. Experts basically throw up their hands when asked to predict the price of gas next year, let alone 30 years from now. One thing we do know: the price at the pump will jump up and down due to geopolitical events beyond our control. If you’re tired of that rollercoaster, call your local utility to ask about electricity rates designed for plug-in cars.


“I’ll hold off until prices go down and there are more places to charge.”

If you’re thinking you’d be better off waiting for a cheaper, better electric car, and a charging station on every block, consider the following:

Modern electric cars start well below $30,000. Even better, there’s a federal tax credit worth $7,500, and states like California have rebates of up to $2,500 — which means you can buy an electric car for under $20,000, or lease one at a very attractive price. Still thinking of waiting for a better deal? Those incentives won’t last forever.

A variety of high-quality electric cars are available today. There are over 80,000 of them on America’s streets, with the Chevy Volt, Nissan Leaf, Toyota Prius Plug-in, and Tesla Model S leading the pack.
Public charging stations are proliferating rapidly, but you don’t need to wait for them to be as abundant as gas stations. Drivers of plug-in cars enjoy fuel that comes to them, relying on home charging to meet the vast majority of their needs.


“I often need to drive farther than electric vehicles can go without recharging.”

Broadly speaking, electric cars come in two flavors: all-electric and plug-in hybrid. The second has no range limitations whatsoever; they have batteries sufficient for normal trips (between 10 and 40 miles, depending on the model), and they become efficient gasoline hybrids for longer trips. If you want one car to do it all, a plug-in hybrid like the Chevy Volt, Toyota Prius Plug-in, Honda Accord Plug-in, Ford Fusion Energi, or Ford C-Max Energi is a great option.

If, however, your household has more than one vehicle, an all-electric is an ideal “second car” you’ll end up using most of the time. All-electrics, such as the Nissan Leaf, Ford Focus EV, Mitsubishi-i, BMW Active-E, Fiat 500 EV, Coda, Chevy Spark EV, Honda Fit EV, or Tesla Model S, have ranges between 60 and 265 miles, more than enough for the daily commute. When it comes time for the long road trip, you can always take the other car.

When you get behind the wheel of an electric car, you’ll experience the joy of full torque from a standstill and a super-quiet cabin. You may have a hard time going back to a machine that relies exclusively on thousands of explosions of fossil fuel every minute.

If you’d like to try a plug-in outside of a dealership, you can find an owner on DrivingElectric.org to give you a spin. You’ll be surprised in ways you could never expect, and you’ll never get tired of driving on a clean fuel for the equivalent of buck-a-gallon gas.

http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2013/03/14/1699311/good-and-green-reasons-to-buy-an-electric-car-this-year/


http://www.treehugger.com/cars/chevrolet-volt-tops-consumer-reports-owner-satisfaction-survey.html

Yes, it's still early, and the govt $Bs aren't being spent on battery research but on tax expenditures for the 1% and corps and Repug bogus wars.

[MannyIsGod]

So the manufacturing costs an extra 16,000 lbs of carbon but they produce half as much carbon. So that means that basically 43,000 miles in and the electric vehicle comes out ahead. The average mileage on a vehicle in its lifetime is now 200,000 miles. So 157,000 * 6/16 = 58875.

Electric vehicles will produce ~60,000 lbs less in carbon and that is a dirty little secret? Interesting.

Oh and the mileage limitation? According to the NHTS 95% of trips are 30 miles or less and virtually all are 70 miles or less. Explain to me how the mileage is going to limit those trips?

http://www.solarjourneyusa.com/EVdistanceAnalysis7.php


I guess if you're a piss poor engineer incapable of arithmetic you might think this is good news against the EV. Or you know, if you're a hack with some serious conformation bias issues. Or both!

[DarrinS]

So the manufacturing costs an extra 16,000 lbs of carbon but they produce half as much carbon. So that means that basically 43,000 miles in and the electric vehicle comes out ahead. The average mileage on a vehicle in its lifetime is now 200,000 miles. So 157,000 * 6/16 = 58875.

Electric vehicles will produce ~60,000 lbs less in carbon and that is a dirty little secret? Interesting.

Oh and the mileage limitation? According to the NHTS 95% of trips are 30 miles or less and virtually all are 70 miles or less. Explain to me how the mileage is going to limit those trips?

http://www.solarjourneyusa.com/EVdistanceAnalysis7.php


I guess if you're a piss poor engineer incapable of arithmetic you might think this is good news against the EV. Or you know, if you're a hack with some serious conformation bias issues. Or both!



I you think it is worth it, then buy one. There's got to be SOME reason these things aren't flying off the showroom floor.

For $28K, I'm definitely not driving around in something like a Nissan MF Leaf. :lmao

[LnGrrrR]

I you think it is worth it, then buy one. There's got to be SOME reason these things aren't flying off the showroom floor.

For $28K, I'm definitely not driving around in something like a Nissan MF Leaf. :lmao

How many $28K+ vehicles that aren't oversized (trucks/SUVs) get bought?

I seem to recall that Honda is doing rather well with its hybrids.

[DarrinS]

How many $28K+ vehicles that aren't oversized (trucks/SUVs) get bought?

I seem to recall that Honda is doing rather well with its hybrids.


A lot of hybrids do well. But they aren't the overpriced EV's that the OP is talking about. A Ford Fusion hybrid is only a few thousand more than it's non-hybrid counterpart. Do you really think a Chevy Volt is worth $40K?

[boutons_deux]

The big problem is the premium paid for hybrid/electric cars. Camry $22k, Camry Hybrid $26K. Can't figure out why Toyota didn't make the hybrid also a plug-in.

Barry's proposed $2B for clean energy (eg, batttery) research will of course be killed by Repugs, who will keep voting for the $2T lame duck aka F-35, and for maintaining $10Bs for BigOil/Coal.

[TeyshaBlue]

A lot of hybrids do well. But they aren't the overpriced EV's that the OP is talking about. A Ford Fusion hybrid is only a few thousand more than it's non-hybrid counterpart. Do you really think a Chevy Volt is worth $40K?

No, but the Caddy version that's about to come out is. http://www.engadget.com/2013/01/15/cadillac-elr/

[DarrinS]

No, but the Caddy version that's about to come out is. http://www.engadget.com/2013/01/15/cadillac-elr/

"No price has been quoted just yet, but expect a substantial boost over the Volt's $39,145 MSRP."

[boutons_deux]

The big problem is the premium paid for hybrid/electric cars. Camry $22k, Camry Hybrid $26K. Can't figure out why Toyota didn't make the hybrid also a plug-in.

Barry's proposed $2B for clean energy (eg, batttery) research will of course be killed by Repugs, who will keep voting for the $2T lame duck aka F-35, and for maintaining $10Bs for BigOil/Coal.

How many 10Ks miles to be driven in a camry hybrid to save $4K in gasoline, to break even? will the battery last that long?

[TeyshaBlue]

"No price has been quoted just yet, but expect a substantial boost over the Volt's $39,145 MSRP."

Yeah, it's gonna be over 40k. But it's bang to hype ratio is much higher.

[DarrinS]

Yeah, it's gonna be over 40k. But it's bang to hype ratio is much higher.

Reminds me of ... "Cimarron, by Cadillac"

[TeyshaBlue]

That's on every "10 worst cars of all time" list I've ever read.:lol

[DarrinS]

But 40K could get you a nice CTS -- TODAY. I can only imagine the rebadged Volt will be 60K or so. Good grief.

[TeyshaBlue]

But 40K could get you a nice CTS -- TODAY. I can only imagine the rebadged Volt will be 60K or so. Good grief.

You're missing the point again. CTS <> Electric/Hybrid. Emerging tech is always higher. Early adopters buy not so much for the immediate benefits, but to extend the developmental process as well.

[LnGrrrR]

A lot of hybrids do well. But they aren't the overpriced EV's that the OP is talking about. A Ford Fusion hybrid is only a few thousand more than it's non-hybrid counterpart. Do you really think a Chevy Volt is worth $40K?

True, but I'm assuming hybrids were slow out the gate to be adopted as well. (I could be wrong on that.)

[George Gervin's Afro]

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887324128504578346913994914472.html



Electric cars are promoted as the chic harbinger of an environmentally benign future. Ads assure us of "zero emissions," and President Obama has promised a million on the road by 2015.


so advertisers stretch the truth? lol

[George Gervin's Afro]

But 40K could get you a nice CTS -- TODAY. I can only imagine the rebadged Volt will be 60K or so. Good grief.

so..... is anyone making you buy one?

[DarrinS]

You're missing the point again. CTS <> Electric/Hybrid. Emerging tech is always higher. Early adopters buy not so much for the immediate benefits, but to extend the developmental process as well.

I was just pointing out that a high end vehicle like a CTS can be had for the same price as Chevy Volt.

As for your last point, I've always thought people were early adopters because the emerging tech was too cool to pass up. Can you think of another example when the sales of an emerging tech were so tepid?

[TeyshaBlue]

I was just pointing out that a high end vehicle like a CTS can be had for the same price as Chevy Volt.

As for your last point, I've always thought people were early adopters because the emerging tech was too cool to pass up. Can you think of another example when the sales of an emerging tech were so tepid?

The cool factor is probaly a player but, you're predicating this conclusion on a false premise....as if this tech development it must take place in a vacuum. Think of the economy. Think of the price of the tech. Think of your descriptor, "tepid".
Are they truly tepid considering the other factors at play? Can you contrast to a similar tech at a similar price point that is positionally redundant (after all, we already have cars that run)? If you can do that, perhaps you can use the term, "tepid".

[boutons_deux]

car mfrs need to get out of the "fuel (battery) business" just like they don't sell gasoline/diesel.

If battery modules were standardized and normalized, then you get get your "fuel" anywhere, even swapping out a discharged batter for a charged battery, rather than waiting hours to recharge.

electric cars business is still VERY PRIMITIVE, like gas cars were in the 1910s.

[DarrinS]

Can you contrast to a similar tech at a similar price point that is positionally redundant (after all, we already have cars that run)?

No, I can't.

[TeyshaBlue]

Neither can I...which is why I wouldn't characterize sales as "tepid" since that's a fairly relative term.

[Drachen]

Reminds me of ... "Cimarron, by Cadillac"


LOL, I bought one of those.... In 2005. Trust me when I say I am not being sarcastic by saying that this was the best 300 dollars I ever spent, and I can say that I used to drive a caddy. LOL



That's on every "10 worst cars of all time" list I've ever read.:lol


Then there is this awesome fact that i wear like a badge of honor.

[MannyIsGod]

I you think it is worth it, then buy one. There's got to be SOME reason these things aren't flying off the showroom floor.

For $28K, I'm definitely not driving around in something like a Nissan MF Leaf. :lmao

I do 95% of my commuting on a train and bike combo. Both are more efficient and allow me to do work I would otherwise be unable to do while driving. When I do drive, its in a 2000 civic that gets nearly 40 miles to the gallon. It doesn't make sense for me to buy a new car until that one is done but I will likely look at an EV then. It may not make sense then either depending on my commute options.

I don't really give much thought to what the car looks like. I grew out of that when I was 24. If I was as feeble minded as you I might care, though.

[DarrinS]

I do 95% of my commuting on a train and bike combo. Both are more efficient and allow me to do work I would otherwise be unable to do while driving. When I do drive, its in a 2000 civic that gets nearly 40 miles to the gallon. It doesn't make sense for me to buy a new car until that one is done but I will likely look at an EV then. It may not make sense then either depending on my commute options.

I don't really give much thought to what the car looks like. I grew out of that when I was 24. If I was as feeble minded as you I might care, though.


Lol

[DMX7]

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887324128504578346913994914472.html

Buck up or stay in the truck!