2013 Free Agent: Dwight Howard

[Bruno]

http://www.nba.com/media/act_dwight_howard.jpg
Born: Dec 8, 1985
Height: 6-11 / 2.11
Weight: 265 lbs. / 120.2 kg.
Prior to NBA / Country: SW Atlanta Christian Academy (GA) / USA

Info (http://www.nba.com/playerfile/dwight_howard/career_stats.html)

[Bruno]

FWIW
345149851446693888

[Mr.Bottomtooth]

Very long shot, but... shit. I can't stand the guy, but that keeps the championship run very alive and well for the next few years.

[elemento]

LOL @ this clown using San Antonio's name. If they weren't playing the Finals, I doubt SA would come up as one of his destinations.

Everyone knows this clown will stay in LA because he is an attention whore. Not to mention the full 5y max contract that only LA can give him.

I despise Howard seriously.

[Redshadows]

He would lower the basketball IQ of the whole Spurs if he came.

[Seventyniner]

Just out of curiosity: how much salary would the Spurs have to send out to do a sign-and-trade for Howard? Could a deal hypothetically be done involving the Spurs sign-and-trading Splitter to the Lakers (along with whatever other salary is required, like Bonner) for Howard? Or can the Lakers not receive a signed-and-traded player because they're over the tax?

[eDizzle20]

Any free agent/trade rumor that involves the Spurs never happens. Even though Howard is not a Spurs character kind of guy the thought of a future core of Parker/Leonard/Howard sounds great.

[Chinook]

Just out of curiosity: how much salary would the Spurs have to send out to do a sign-and-trade for Howard? Could a deal hypothetically be done involving the Spurs sign-and-trading Splitter to the Lakers (along with whatever other salary is required, like Bonner) for Howard? Or can the Lakers not receive a signed-and-traded player because they're over the tax?

Only enough to get within 100k of the cap. So if the Spurs renounced everyone, they could get away with trading Splitter and Mills/De Colo for Howard. If the Spurs amnesty Bonner, they should have enough money to do the trade without the guard.

The bigger issue is that the Lakers can't really take back Splitter unless they're under the apron. Even if they move Howard for a Splitter making considerably less, they'd have to amnesty World Peace or Gasol to make that happen. However, they'd then have to stay under the apron for the rest of the season, which wouldn't be really easy to do, as they still have to fill out their roster.

Another option would be for the Spurs, Lakers and a third team (Hawks?) to do a three-way deal, in which the Spurs get Howard, the third team gets Splitter and the Lakers get Mills and some better assets from the third team (Lou Williams or Al Horford, some draft picks and an eight-figure trade exception, for example).

[Bruno]

Spurs don't need to do some kind of sign and trade to get Howard. They can simply sign him with their cap space to a max contract. The biggest obstacle to get that max cap space would be that Manu will need to be fine with taking a big paycut and sign for the room exception ($5.4M/2 years).

At the end, Spurs would end up with a Parker/Green/Leonard/Duncan/Howard starting lineup with players like Joseph, Neal, Ginobili and Diaw on the bench.

[yavozerb]

What is the max offer the spurs could give?

[Seventyniner]

Spurs don't need to do some kind of sign and trade to get Howard. They can simply sign him with their cap space to a max contract. The biggest obstacle to get that max cap space would be that Manu will need to be fine with taking a big paycut and sign for the room exception ($5.4M/2 years).

At the end, Spurs would end up with a Parker/Green/Leonard/Duncan/Howard starting lineup with players like Joseph, Neal, Ginobili and Diaw on the bench.

I had two reasons for asking about a sign-and-trade Splitter for Howard:
1) Could the Spurs do it without renouncing Manu and staying under the tax? Salaries only have to match within 125%, right?
2) The Spurs could offer a 5th year if they were willing to; Howard might make the fifth year a condition of agreeing to a sign-and-trade.

[Chinook]

Spurs don't need to do some kind of sign and trade to get Howard. They can simply sign him with their cap space to a max contract. The biggest obstacle to get that max cap space would be that Manu will need to be fine with taking a big paycut and sign for the room exception ($5.4M/2 years).

At the end, Spurs would end up with a Parker/Green/Leonard/Duncan/Howard starting lineup with players like Joseph, Neal, Ginobili and Diaw on the bench.

I'm confused by this. By your initial estimate, the Spurs had $22.8 Million with a $62 Million cap, so with a $58.5 Million cap, the Spurs should have $19.3 Million, which is less than Howard's max deal (about $20.5 Million). They sure do not seem to be able to afford Neal's cap hold. If they signed-and-traded for Howard, then they could fit him under the cap, but they shouldn't be able to sign him straight up.

[Chinook]

I had two reasons for asking about a sign-and-trade Splitter for Howard:
1) Could the Spurs do it without renouncing Manu and staying under the tax? Salaries only have to match within 125%, right?
2) The Spurs could offer a 5th year if they were willing to; Howard might make the fifth year a condition of agreeing to a sign-and-trade.

1-The Spurs could trade Splitter while keeping all cap holds and the MLE provided they send out at least at most $5 Million less than the salary Howard wants. That's at least about $15.5 Million. Splitter isn't going to command that much, so they have to find some way to make up the difference. Bonner's deal could work for some of it if he agrees to extend his deadline. De Colo's deal could work for more of it. So it's possible for the Spurs to get the salary together to do a straight-up sign-and-trade, but as I said before, the Lakers can't actually take Splitter back without having do deal with the new apron restrictions. So they'd have to clear even more salary, or Splitter himself would have to go somewhere else.

2-The Spurs can't offer a fifth year to Howard under any scenario. The CBA stopped players from getting Bird benefits through sign-and-trades.

[td4mvp2k]

LOL @ this clown using San Antonio's name. If they weren't playing the Finals, I doubt SA would come up as one of his destinations.

Everyone knows this clown will stay in LA because he is an attention whore. Not to mention the full 5y max contract that only LA can give him.

I despise Howard seriously.:lol ya its dum to think of it

[Seventyniner]

2-The Spurs can't offer a fifth year to Howard under any scenario. The CBA stopped players from getting Bird benefits through sign-and-trades.

No Bird benefits at all? Does that mean the Lakers can't sign-and-trade him even to a team with enough space for the whole salary, because they couldn't resign him themselves if they didn't have his Bird rights?

[bluebellmaniac]

No Bird benefits at all? Does that mean the Lakers can't sign-and-trade him even to a team with enough space for the whole salary, because they couldn't resign him themselves if they didn't have his Bird rights?

The apron extends out to $4M into the luxury tax. So long as they are $4M or more over/into the luxury tax, they can not take back a player in a sign and trade, if I recall that provision correctly.

[Chinook]

No Bird benefits at all? Does that mean the Lakers can't sign-and-trade him even to a team with enough space for the whole salary, because they couldn't resign him themselves if they didn't have his Bird rights?

The Lakers can use a Bird exception to re-sign him, but that's not the same thing as him getting the full Bird contract (extra year, 7.5-percent increases). So the Lakers can re-sign him to a Bird contract, but they can't sign-and-trade him with those benefits. Just like the Spurs could've signed-and-trade Diaw using their MLE even though they didn't have his Bird rights.

[SpursDynasty21]

I'm curious if the Spurs have a legit chance at getting a top free agent soon...like Dwight Howard or LeBron James?

[Seventyniner]

The Lakers can use a Bird exception to re-sign him, but that's not the same thing as him getting the full Bird contract (extra year, 7.5-percent increases). So the Lakers can re-sign him to a Bird contract, but they can't sign-and-trade him with those benefits. Just like the Spurs could've signed-and-trade Diaw using their MLE even though they didn't have his Bird rights.

Is that because the Lakers are over the tax, or have all teams lost the ability to do a sign-and-trade with the extra year and bigger increases?

[Chinook]

Is that because the Lakers are over the tax, or have all teams lost the ability to do a sign-and-trade with the extra year and bigger increases?

All teams have that restriction. The Lakers just can't get back a player in a sign-and-trade because they are over the apron.

[Bruno]

I'm confused by this. By your initial estimate, the Spurs had $22.8 Million with a $62 Million cap, so with a $58.5 Million cap, the Spurs should have $19.3 Million, which is less than Howard's max deal (about $20.5 Million). They sure do not seem to be able to afford Neal's cap hold. If they signed-and-traded for Howard, then they could fit him under the cap, but they shouldn't be able to sign him straight up.

Spurs will likely need to do some move with the end of their roster (De Colo, Mills and Baynes) to get that $20.5M in cap space. It really shouldn't be that hard to do. After these moves, they would be able to just sign Howard to a max contract.
Neal cap hold will only take $0.6M in cap space by counting the roster cap hold. If Spurs go tricky by not making a QO or by withdrawing it while keeping Neal's bird rights, he will only eat $0.4M in cap space. But I agree that it will make a little harder to reach the $20.5M target.

[exstatic]

Very long shot, but... shit. I can't stand the guy, but that keeps the championship run very alive and well for the next few years.

No it doesn't. He's mentally weak, and wants to be carried like a little baby.

[exstatic]

I'm curious if the Spurs have a legit chance at getting a top free agent soon...like Dwight Howard or LeBron James?

No.

[SpursDynasty21]

No.
Why not?

[Master splitter]

The D Howard rumor sounds pretty good right about now. If we lose this series I'm pretty sure all you howard haters would reconsider.

[exstatic]

Why not?

Because top FAs never sign here. We had cap room for a top FA in 2003, and won the NBA title. Kidd turned us down. Jermaine O'Neal turned us down. CWebb turned us down in 2001. They don't want to come here. There is no "scene" and no publicity for their hype machines. Not enough clubs. No paparazzi.

[SpursDynasty21]

That's a shame. If players wanted to win instead of just going to the big markets, the Spurs would have a good chance at some top free agents.

[exstatic]

That's a shame. If players wanted to win instead of just going to the big markets, the Spurs would have a good chance at some top free agents.

You've just stumbled on the dirty little secret of the NBA: most players don't care about winning. They'll say they do, because otherwise the fans would turn on them, but all they really want is the money and the lifestyle.

[Obstructed_View]

I'm warming up to this idea, guys. Let him defend, get rebounds, clean up the trash, get easy dunks and follow ups. Spurs allow 59 points per game next season. Coach Duncan teaches him how to be a winner.

[timtonymanu]

If only he can accept being a role player on the team, but you know he won't. Coach killing diva

[objective]

He'll be even more useful next season, as Silver is expected to change the hack-a-player rules.

[raybies]

For the right price and the right role, ehh why not

[Captivus]

He'll be even more useful next season, as Silver is expected to change the hack-a-player rules.


They shouldnt change that rule

[Obstructed_View]

They shouldnt change that rule

Silver has no authority to change the rule anyway. The competition committee has had chances and never changes it, despite all the bluster about it. Even the owners who complain the loudest don't actually do anything when the time comes.

But BKL appears to be healthier than he's been in a couple of years. The Spurs can get him more shots than he was getting in Houston, and he'll have a lot of opportunities for rebounds and putbacks with Aldridge and Kawhi shooting jumpers. Give me a guy shooting 60 percent from the field with 13 boards and two blocks just about any day. I think he'd thrive in an environment where people value his contributions and don't ask him to shoulder all the blame when things go wrong.

[lmbebo]

Silver has no authority to change the rule anyway. The competition committee has had chances and never changes it, despite all the bluster about it. Even the owners who complain the loudest don't actually do anything when the time comes.

But BKL appears to be healthier than he's been in a couple of years. The Spurs can get him more shots than he was getting in Houston, and he'll have a lot of opportunities for rebounds and putbacks with Aldridge and Kawhi shooting jumpers. Give me a guy shooting 60 percent from the field with 13 boards and two blocks just about any day. I think he'd thrive in an environment where people value his contributions and don't ask him to shoulder all the blame when things go wrong.

If Howard was content in that role, he wouldn't have had issues a long the way. Prob is he wants to be the alpha on a team. He's a good P-R center, but wants to be a post up center...

[objective]

Silver has no authority to change the rule anyway. The competition committee has had chances and never changes it, despite all the bluster about it. Even the owners who complain the loudest don't actually do anything when the time comes.

They already changed it by banning in the last two minutes, didn't they?

[Obstructed_View]

If Howard was content in that role, he wouldn't have had issues a long the way. Prob is he wants to be the alpha on a team. He's a good P-R center, but wants to be a post up center...
Well, he used to want to be the alpha. Then he went to Houston where he was their most efficient scorer and they couldn't be bothered to pass him the fucking ball. Being in a place where his contributions are appreciated and the offense is tailor made to get him a lot of shot opportunities might be attractive to him. I also think about how fucking nasty the Spurs' defense would be with a KL, LMA and BKL front line.


They already changed it by banning in the last two minutes, didn't they?
Yeah but they did it when Wilt was playing. I don't know who made rules back then, but the competition committee suggests rule changes and then they're voted on by the board of governors.

Also, it's a stupid strategy unless your team's defense is abysmal. According to BR, the best teams in the league score ~110 points per 100 possessions, so that means a hacked player shooting 55% is, at worst, breaking even. That's before you account for the hacked player's team benefits from being in the bonus or the lack of turnover and fast break opportunities.

[djohn2oo8]

Well, he used to want to be the alpha. Then he went to Houston where he was their most efficient scorer and they couldn't be bothered to pass him the fucking ball. Being in a place where his contributions are appreciated and the offense is tailor made to get him a lot of shot opportunities might be attractive to him. I also think about how fucking nasty the Spurs' defense would be with a KL, LMA and BKL front line.


Yeah but they did it when Wilt was playing. I don't know who made rules back then, but the competition committee suggests rule changes and then they're voted on by the board of governors.

Also, it's a stupid strategy unless your team's defense is abysmal. According to BR, the best teams in the league score ~110 points per 100 possessions, so that means a hacked player shooting 55% is, at worst, breaking even. That's before you account for the hacked player's team benefits from being in the bonus or the lack of turnover and fast break opportunities.
Dude, Howard STILL wants to be the main guy.

[SD126]

He's heading back East

[Obstructed_View]

Dude, Howard STILL wants to be the main guy.

If that were the case, he probably wouldn't have chosen to go to LA. He's probably ready to just be someplace where he's needed. Nobody needs centers more than the Spurs do.

[djohn2oo8]

If that were the case, he probably wouldn't have chosen to go to LA. He's probably ready to just be someplace where he's needed. Nobody needs centers more than the Spurs do.

He didnt want LA. His agent did because of marketing exposure.

[Chinook]

He didnt want LA. His agent did because of marketing exposure.

Pretty sure him not signing an extension and repeatedly stating how he didn't want to go to LA meant he didn't want to go there.

[Obstructed_View]

He didnt want LA. His agent did because of marketing exposure.

I actually forgot he was traded there.

So it wasn't his idea to go to LA, so why would he have gone to Houston when they had Harden? Why is everyone so sure he wouldn't play for the Spurs?

[lmbebo]

I actually forgot he was traded there.

So it wasn't his idea to go to LA, so why would he have gone to Houston when they had Harden? Why is everyone so sure he wouldn't play for the Spurs?


Do you want to pay this guy $20 million? He might be worth it for the first year or two ... but after that as he gets older and his injury issues reappear, do you want to be paying him $25+ milion? His contract at that point will be an albatross that ruins the team building. Long term risk outweights short term benefit.

[Obstructed_View]

Do you want to pay this guy $20 million? He might be worth it for the first year or two ... but after that as he gets older and his injury issues reappear, do you want to be paying him $25+ milion? His contract at that point will be an albatross that ruins the team building. Long term risk outweights short term benefit.

If he were 34, I guess I'd think the way you do, but he's 30, and just came off a relatively healthy season. Dwight Howard at 50 percent is as good as most any big that the Spurs are likely to get, and the Spurs have a chance to win every year that he's not completely out of the lineup, and are probably a dominant favorite if he's at this year's production or better.

"Worth it for a year or two" means the Spurs are a dominant defense, win 63-70 games, have a shot at HCA, and are a favorite to win a title. For a legit shot at two or three championships, what team wouldn't be willing to pay him 20 million bucks? What fan wouldn't be okay with it?

Here's the way I'd gauge him as a player: Offer him a good contract, a starting position, and a chance to be on a historically-good NBA front line for a team with a pedigree. If he jumps to some other team that offers him more money, then he hasn't learned anything and you move on down the road. Doesn't mean you don't give his agent a call.

[lmbebo]

If he were 34, I guess I'd think the way you do, but he's 30, and just came off a relatively healthy season. Dwight Howard at 50 percent is as good as most any big that the Spurs are likely to get, and the Spurs have a chance to win every year that he's not completely out of the lineup, and are probably a dominant favorite if he's at this year's production or better.

"Worth it for a year or two" means the Spurs are a dominant defense, win 63-70 games, have a shot at HCA, and are a favorite to win a title. For a legit shot at two or three championships, what team wouldn't be willing to pay him 20 million bucks? What fan wouldn't be okay with it?

Here's the way I'd gauge him as a player: Offer him a good contract, a starting position, and a chance to be on a historically-good NBA front line for a team with a pedigree. If he jumps to some other team that offers him more money, then he hasn't learned anything and you move on down the road. Doesn't mean you don't give his agent a call.

You throw a bone his way. See if he bites. I think he's in the $15-20 mil/year range probably. He's not a vet looking to get a ring. He still wants to get paid and get all he can. Be warned, you get diminishing returns with him when he gets more expensive. He wants a max contract. Boston maybe hard up enough to get him to give him that kind of money.

[Chinook]

You throw a bone his way. See if he bites. I think he's in the $15-20 mil/year range probably. He's not a vet looking to get a ring. He still wants to get paid and get all he can. Be warned, you get diminishing returns with him when he gets more expensive. He wants a max contract. Boston maybe hard up enough to get him to give him that kind of money.

Yeah. I wouldn't go more than $80M/4 for him. That's about how much the Spurs would have if they waive Diaw. That's not a bad deal for him unless he just wants a max contract. If he wants to win, then he's not going to find a much better system.

PG: Parker, Mills, 29
SG: Green, room exception, Simmons
SF: Kawhi, Anderson, Bertans
PF: Aldridge, West, Cady
C: Howard, Milutinov/Ndoye, min guy

[SD126]

Yeah. I wouldn't go more than $80M/4 for him. That's about how much the Spurs would have if they waive Diaw. That's not a bad deal for him unless he just wants a max contract. If he wants to win, then he's not going to find a much better system.

PG: Parker, Mills, 29
SG: Green, room exception, Simmons
SF: Kawhi, Anderson, Bertans
PF: Aldridge, West, Cady
C: Howard, Milutinov/Ndoye, min guy

4/$80 million is way too steep. Let someone else pay him if he wants that.

[Chinook]

4/$80 million is way too steep. Let someone else pay him if he wants that.

Ugh. That's completely unrealistic. You'll see next month. Howard will probably get something like $100M/4, and people will be calling it a discount. Contracts are about to change.

[SD126]

Ugh. That's completely unrealistic. You'll see next month. Howard will probably get something like $100M/4, and people will be calling it a discount. Contracts are about to change.

Sadly, you're right, he'll get that somewhere because we had incompetent owners/GMs everywhere, and completely isn't worth that tbh.

4/60-65 would be as far as I'll go.

Anyone dumb enough to think 4/100 would be a discount with these supposed "changing contracts" coming up should quit trying to be capologists. Just my .02