2013 Amnesty Candidate: Pau Gasol

[Bruno]

http://www.nba.com/media/act_pau_gasol.jpg
Born: Jul 6, 1980
Height: 7-0 / 2.13
Weight: 250 lbs. / 113.4 kg.
Prior to NBA / Country: FC Barcelona / Spain

Info (http://www.nba.com/playerfile/pau_gasol/career_stats.html)

1 year left on his contract

[Richie]

If they amnesty Gasol I'd like to see us throw our entire cap room at him. Of course it all depends on what Manu wants to re sign for and what the cap is. $8-$10m might not be enough but you never know.

[exstatic]

Won't be amnestied. Jettisoning him doesn't eve bring them below the tax.

[Uriel]

Won't be amnestied. Jettisoning him doesn't eve bring them below the tax.
But it'll still save them a heck of a lot of money.

[Mal]

Amnestied player is going to highest bidder, right ? There will be a team who could throw him more money than Spurs - for example Houston or Atlanta

[exstatic]

But it'll still save them a heck of a lot of money.

They'll trade him, maybe even to a team with cap room to absorb his whole contract.

[Bruno]

Amnestying Gasol will save Lakers $70M and that's a conservative estimation. That's a lot of money, even for the Lakers.

[BackHome]

With the owner passing away I wonder what that does for the Lakers short and long term?

[CGD]

Jeesh, I wish I had the money to buy an nba team right now. With what the Lakers alone are going to pay in taxes one would do very well. Not to mention other big spending clubs like the Knicks and Nets will have large bills themselves. Wouldn't even have to field a good product!

puts in perspective just how lucrative those tv next deals are, and why our cable bills only seems to go up and up...

[Richie]

They'll trade him, maybe even to a team with cap room to absorb his whole contract.

There can't be many teams who can absorb a $20m contract and for the teams that can, would they want to? He's still a good player, but at 32 coming off an injury ridden season do any rebuilding teams really want to take him on for max money?

[freetiago]

Scola was offered like 4 mil right
teams will throw at least 10 mil at Gasol for 1 season

[Bruno]

I wonder what kind of impact the Kobe injury will have on a possible Gasol amnesty.

First, I don't see at all Lakers amnestying Bryant.

The Kobe injury could push Lakers to amnesty Gasol with the reasoning that it's useless to spend that much money on a sinking ship. It could have the opposite effect with Lakers thinking they even more need Gasol with Bryant out/diminished.

Gasol good end of the season could also save him for the amnesty especially if Lakers make the playoffs and Gasol plays well during them.

[Richie]

I was thinking the injury almost ensures that Gasol stays, but you could be right. Gotta think the Lakers won't be winning a title with Nash/Gasol/Howard, especially considering how injury prone they have all been this year.

If they think Kobe will be back in time for the playoffs next year (which it seems they do) would it still make sense? They won't be able to sign anyone after the amnesty as they won't be anywhere near the cap after the sign Howard.

[Spursfanfromafar]

There is even more of a chance that Kobe is amnestied, sits out the 2013-14 season in the name of recuperation; and then signs with the Lakers for 2014 and beyond. That way, the Lakers save $80 million (?) in luxury tax bill, get someone worthwhile to play for them considering their savings and then reboot the team in 2014-15 with Kobe and Howard.

That makes it less likelier that they will amnesty Gasol, IMO.

[Bruno]

There is even more of a chance that Kobe is amnestied, sits out the 2013-14 season in the name of recuperation.

The NBA season starts in 6 and a half months. Bryant is said to be out 6 to 9 months. It this timetable is true, Bryant should be able to play most, if not all, of next season.

[baseline bum]

Gasol is out for sure, but it's going to be in trade and not amnesty. Artest will be the one to get amnestied.

[bluebellmaniac]

Gasol is out for sure, but it's going to be in trade and not amnesty. Artest will be the one to get amnestied.
Pau is good, but not $20M good. That said, when the Lakers want to make a horribly one sided trade, for some strange reason, there are always plenty of takers.

[baseline bum]

Pau is good, but not $20M good. That said, when the Lakers want to make a horribly one sided trade, for some strange reason, there are always plenty of takers.

That's a $19.3 million expiring contract. Teams are going to be lining up to trade for that deal to clear long-term money off their books. Gasol's trade value is going to be huge because of that.

[Bruno]

That's a $19.3 million expiring contract. Teams are going to be lining up to trade for that deal to clear long-term money off their books. Gasol's trade value is going to be huge because of that.

If I'm Lakers, I wouldn't be interested in taking long term money for Gasol unless the players in return are really good.

In the 2014 summer, Lakers will have Howard and $35M in cap space if they let they keep all their expiring contracts and use the stretch provision on Nash.

[bluebellmaniac]

That's a $19.3 million expiring contract. Teams are going to be lining up to trade for that deal to clear long-term money off their books. Gasol's trade value is going to be huge because of that.

I would think they try to position themselves for a big name star whose contract will be up in the next year or 2. Who do you think they would look at in a trade?

I think a lot depends on if Howard stays or bolts to Dallas. That discussion has to be happening right now with his agent. If he stays, then I think they amnesty Kobe and try to persuade MWP to leave (although he won't). They are in a bad enough position with Nash's contract, but there's nothing they can do about that now. Then it makes sense to try to fill in some SF/SG pieces by trading Pau. If Howard bolts, then Pau is your main big. They still amnesty Kobe which gives them around $13M to sign another SG and or SF.

[bluebellmaniac]

If I'm Lakers, I wouldn't be interested in taking long term money for Gasol unless the players in return are really good.

In the 2014 summer, Lakers will have Howard and $35M in cap space if they let they keep all their expiring contracts and use the stretch provision on Nash.

Stretch provision?

[Bruno]

Stretch provision?

It's a new CBA provision that allow to waive a player and stretch his salary over multiple years.

In Nash's case, Lakers can waive him next summer and stretch his $9.7M 2014-2015 salary over 3 years with a cap hit of $3.23M each year. It would allow Lakers to open more cap space.

[baseline bum]

If I'm Lakers, I wouldn't be interested in taking long term money for Gasol unless the players in return are really good.

In the 2014 summer, Lakers will have Howard and $35M in cap space if they let they keep all their expiring contracts and use the stretch provision on Nash.

I'm thinking the end of the sign and trade is going to make LA's cap space look a lot less appealing. I think we could see an end to the days of the megastar leaving town unless he's just in a straight-out toxic situation. I mean sure, lots of players would love to go play in LA, but who's going to love the idea enough to leave $25-$30 million on the table? Cash Rules Everything Around Me still.

bjZRAvsZf1g

[baseline bum]

I would think they try to position themselves for a big name star whose contract will be up in the next year or 2. Who do you think they would look at in a trade?

I think a lot depends on if Howard stays or bolts to Dallas. That discussion has to be happening right now with his agent. If he stays, then I think they amnesty Kobe and try to persuade MWP to leave (although he won't). They are in a bad enough position with Nash's contract, but there's nothing they can do about that now. Then it makes sense to try to fill in some SF/SG pieces by trading Pau. If Howard bolts, then Pau is your main big. They still amnesty Kobe which gives them around $13M to sign another SG and or SF.

Like I was saying above to Bruno, the days of the superstar leaving town are likely numbered. I think the free agent market is going to start looking like a lot of flawed but talented guys like Josh Smith getting paid too much since no one worth a true max contract is going to sacrifice that money he can get by staying. We already saw this with Dallas last summer when Williams wouldn't leave a complete trainwreck to play in his hometown with a team 1 year removed from a title for one of the best owners in the league.

[objective]

Locke, the Jazz pbp radio guy has brainstormed about the Jazz using their capspace this summer to just absorb Pau in a trade to pair with Favors and Kanter. The Lakers might not need to use the amnesty on Pau.

[Richie]

I'm never going to understand this idea of a player not leaving because of the extra year.

They aren't losing that money, because it's money they will get in the next contract. The only way it makes sense is if the player is planning on the chances of suffering a career ending injury.

Look at Harden as an example. People say he signed with the Rockets because he got an extra $25m or whatever, but $17.5m of that is in his 5th year. Barring a major injury he will eventually get that money on his next contract, so signing with OKC was only going to cost him $7.5m because they didn't offer him the max. A lot of money, but he could walk away with 4 rings in that time.

[pad300]

I'm never going to understand this idea of a player not leaving because of the extra year.

They aren't losing that money, because it's money they will get in the next contract. The only way it makes sense is if the player is planning on the chances of suffering a career ending injury.

Look at Harden as an example. People say he signed with the Rockets because he got an extra $25m or whatever, but $17.5m of that is in his 5th year. Barring a major injury he will eventually get that money on his next contract, so signing with OKC was only going to cost him $7.5m because they didn't offer him the max. A lot of money, but he could walk away with 4 rings in that time.

You need to think about the timing.
Player X, college senior joins the NBA at 22. He plays 4 years on his rookie contract - he's 26. If he signs a 4 year contract, his next contract starts with him being 31 years old. Is he still worth max money at 31? History says likely not. If he's on a 5 year max contract, he's collecting 17.5 million in that 5th year. By comparison, 31 year old players starting a new contract, might only see $10 million - even if he's still really good, as teams don't expect him to be as good at 34.
And of course, there is alway the potential for career limiting injuries...

[exstatic]

There is even more of a chance that Kobe is amnestied, sits out the 2013-14 season in the name of recuperation; and then signs with the Lakers for 2014 and beyond. That way, the Lakers save $80 million (?) in luxury tax bill, get someone worthwhile to play for them considering their savings and then reboot the team in 2014-15 with Kobe and Howard.

That makes it less likelier that they will amnesty Gasol, IMO.

He'd have to sign for the minimum. Bird rights are gone if you get amnestied.

[Chinook]

Instead of being amnestied, Pau may just get bought out. If he thinks a team will offer him around $10 Million next season, him taking a 50-percent buy-out may be a good option for everyone. He gets the same amount of money and gets to pick his next team, and the Lakers pay less money and still have the amnesty to use on Metta World Peace.

[Chinook]

He'd have to sign for the minimum. Bird rights are gone if you get amnestied.

They'll have cap space then. They wouldn't need Bird rights to re-sign him, although he could only get what's left.

In an interesting twist, a team could claim him from the amnesty waivers and then sign-and-trade him to the Lakers the next off-season for more than the minimum depending on other circumstances.

[exstatic]

They'll have cap space then. They wouldn't need cap space to re-sign him, although he could only get what's left.

In an interesting twist, a team could claim him from the amnesty waivers and then sign-and-trade him to the Lakers the next off-season for more than the minimum depending on other circumstances.

They STILL won't have cap space, even if they amnesty Kobe. THAT'S how far over the tax they are.

[exstatic]

I'd put in a bid for Gasol if the Splitter deal goes south this summer. He was the LA big man who DIDN'T quit in game 4.

[Bruno]

Instead of being amnestied, Pau may just get bought out. If he thinks a team will offer him around $10 Million next season, him taking a 50-percent buy-out may be a good option for everyone. He gets the same amount of money and gets to pick his next team, and the Lakers pay less money and still have the amnesty to use on Metta World Peace.

If you do the math, it will save a little less money than simply amnestying Gasol and it will let them without both Gasol and Artest. I don't see how it could be a good move for Lakers.

[Chinook]

They STILL won't have cap space, even if they amnesty Kobe. THAT'S how far over the tax they are.

In 2014, they'll have a lot of cap space. That's the season the poster you quoted was talking about. The Lakers couldn't re-sign him at all in 2013, since a team can't re-acquire amnestied players for the remaining length of their contracts.

[Chinook]

If you do the math, it will save a little less money than simply amnestying Gasol and it will let them without both Gasol and Artest. I don't see how it could be a good move for Lakers.

I guess it depends on how much the buyout would be for. Under the scenario I laid out, you're right. He'd have to take less than World Peace would make next season. If his buyout was for, say, $4 Million instead of $10 Million (which he may do for the freedom to pick his team and to secure a long-term deal while he still has value), it would save the Lakers money. That may not be worth losing two core players, but maybe it would if Nash and Bryant don't think they can come back next season. The Lakers could really use a bad season to purge contracts and restock talent.

Although in that case, then it would make much more sense to amnesty Bryant instead of World Peace, so my idea is probably not that realistic.

[exstatic]

LA is never amnestying Kobe. It's fun to run the scenarios and say they should, but they just won't.

[Bruno]

To me, the outlooks of what will happen are quite simple:

If Dwight sign elsewhere, Gasol will stay with Lakers.
If Dwight stay and Lakers owners aren't fine with spending a tons of money for a so-so team, Gasol will be amnestied.
If Dwight stay and Lakers owners don't care on spending $185M for their team, Gasol will stay or be traded.

I'm a huge Pau Gasol fan so I would be thrilled to see him ending with Spurs but, even if it doesn't happen, I wish he will leave Lakers and land in a good situation. He clearly doesn't deserved to be treated like he is by the Lakers.

[Chinook]

How long is amnesty window? I could see Dwight wanting to milk his free agency. Would anyone really be surprised if he did an ESPN special like Lebron did?

[SpursBills]

can lakers just trade gasol to a team way under the cap? salaries don't have to match in that scenario right? then they could amnesty MWP as well

[Bruno]

can lakers just trade gasol to a team way under the cap? salaries don't have to match in that scenario right? then they could amnesty MWP as well

Yes, they can.

Now, if you are a team with a lot of cap space, that is to say likely a team in rebuilding mode, do you really want to spend $22.2M for a 33 years old injury-prone Gasol?

[CGD]

Would the lakers ever do a trade with a conference rival like the spurs though? Spurs only hope I think is if that he is amnestied. I would absolutely love Paul in SA.

[TD 21]

Players the caliber of Gasol (even in his current state) don't get amnestied and they especially don't by a franchise as wealthy and in a constant win now mode as the Lakers. It doesn't even matter how much it would save them, it's not happening. And why would it? Even with his bloated salary and declining game, he's only got one year left and he's the second most skilled all around big in the league, so amnestying him would be a waste of an asset.

Besides, if Howard re-signs and they're that determined to get rid of his salary without taking much back, there's no reason to think the spurned Hawks, Mavs and Rockets, wouldn't turn to either Gasol (or Bynum) next. Even if the best they could do is something minor, like Jenkins, Crowder, one of Smith/Jones/Motiejunas and picks, that's a lot better than nothing.

[exstatic]

Players the caliber of Gasol (even in his current state) don't get amnestied and they especially don't by a franchise as wealthy and in a constant win now mode as the Lakers. It doesn't even matter how much it would save them, it's not happening. And why would it? Even with his bloated salary and declining game, he's only got one year left and he's the second most skilled all around big in the league, so amnestying him would be a waste of an asset.

Besides, if Howard re-signs and they're that determined to get rid of his salary without taking much back, there's no reason to think the spurned Hawks, Mavs and Rockets, wouldn't turn to either Gasol (or Bynum) next. Even if the best they could do is something minor, like Jenkins, Crowder, one of Smith/Jones/Motiejunas and picks, that's a lot better than nothing.

You don't understand how much a player who is well on the wrong side of 30, on a team that has no chance to ring, will cost. The FULL tax penalty kicks in this summer. LA is in the top bracket of > $15M over the tax and they are a repeat offender. That means for every $1 they are over the tax, they have to pay $4.25. Gasol makes $18.71M. Figure out the tax on top of THAT. If they were competitive, that would be one thing. They're not. Even getting Kobe back, they will struggle to get into the top half of the Western Conference draw next year. They're not very fucking good. Nash isn't injured, he's 40 and will not get much better or healthier than he is now.

He's unhappy, and a terrible fit for D'Antoni's system. They could get what D'Antoni uses him for, elbow jumpers and rebounding, from someone a lot cheaper.

[Chinook]

Gasol has a 15-percent trade kicker, I believe. That makes him almost impossible to trade.

[CGD]

It's kinda ridiculous to talk about money like this bc of the amounts involved, but the Lakers are the Buss family's main source of wealth. The latest figure I saw on the late Jerry Buss was that his net worth was around $350 million. Sure they'd be fine, but the tax hit is no joke for the Buss family. They aren't exactly Paul Allen.

If there are rumblings of Kobe being amnestied if he's hurt most if next year, then anyone is on the table...

[TD 21]

You don't understand how much a player who is well on the wrong side of 30, on a team that has no chance to ring, will cost. The FULL tax penalty kicks in this summer. LA is in the top bracket of > $15M over the tax and they are a repeat offender. That means for every $1 they are over the tax, they have to pay $4.25. Gasol makes $18.71M. Figure out the tax on top of THAT. If they were competitive, that would be one thing. They're not. Even getting Kobe back, they will struggle to get into the top half of the Western Conference draw next year. They're not very fucking good. Nash isn't injured, he's 40 and will not get much better or healthier than he is now.

He's unhappy, and a terrible fit for D'Antoni's system. They could get what D'Antoni uses him for, elbow jumpers and rebounding, from someone a lot cheaper.

So because I disagree, I don't understand? :lol

Chinook, the trade kicker doesn't matter either, as teams like the Hawks and Mavs will have tons of cap space, little quality to use it on and at least in the Mavs case, a real sense of desperation/urgency. He may not be what they're looking for necessarily (probably isn't, in fact), but if they can't make something better happen and can get him for Crowder and some picks, they're doing it in a second.

[exstatic]

So because I disagree, I don't understand? :lol

Chinook, the trade kicker doesn't matter either, as teams like the Hawks and Mavs will have tons of cap space, little quality to use it on and at least in the Mavs case, a real sense of desperation/urgency. He may not be what they're looking for necessarily (probably isn't, in fact), but if they can't make something better happen and can get him for Crowder and some picks, they're doing it in a second.

If you think they're keeping him for like a +$80M price tag to finish between 5 an 8 in the WC you don't.

[T Park]

So because I disagree, I don't understand? :lol

Chinook, the trade kicker doesn't matter either, as teams like the Hawks and Mavs will have tons of cap space, little quality to use it on and at least in the Mavs case, a real sense of desperation/urgency. He may not be what they're looking for necessarily (probably isn't, in fact), but if they can't make something better happen and can get him for Crowder and some picks, they're doing it in a second.


No your just wrong.

[Bruno]

After looking more closely at numbers, Gasol 15% trade kicker should be almost fully, if not fully canceled. A trade kicker can put a player above the max salary and Gasol is just under it.

It doesn't change that trading Gasol without taking back a lot of salary will be damn difficult to do for the Lakers. I just don't see teams wanting Gasol with his $20M salary.

[Chinook]

So because I disagree, I don't understand? :lol

Chinook, the trade kicker doesn't matter either, as teams like the Hawks and Mavs will have tons of cap space, little quality to use it on and at least in the Mavs case, a real sense of desperation/urgency. He may not be what they're looking for necessarily (probably isn't, in fact), but if they can't make something better happen and can get him for Crowder and some picks, they're doing it in a second.

I get what you're saying. But it's hard enough to justify Gasol at $18 Million; it's impossible (in my opinion) to justify him at $22 Million. Committing more than a third of your cap to a declining player AND giving up assets? It seems unlikely to me, especially since if the Lakers attempt to trade him, they won't be able to keep him.

The only team that might do that is Dallas. Everyone else would just re-sign their free agents.

[Chinook]

After looking more closely at numbers, Gasol 15% trade kicker should be almost fully, if not fully canceled. A trade kicker can put a player above the max salary and Gasol is just under it.

It doesn't change that trading Gasol without taking back a lot of salary will be damn difficult to do for the Lakers. I just don't see teams wanting Gasol with his $20M salary.

Gasol isn't THAT close to the max. He's been in the league long enough to get 35 percent of the cap. If the cap is at $62 Million next season, his max is at $21.7 Million. So he can pretty much fit his entire kicker in.

[Bruno]

Gasol isn't THAT close to the max. He's been in the league long enough to get 35 percent of the cap. If the cap is at $62 Million next season, his max is at $21.7 Million. So he can pretty much fit his entire kicker in.

http://www.cbafaq.com/salarycap.htm#Q16


They use a different cap calculation to determine the maximum salaries, which is based on 42.14% of projected BRI rather than 44.74%. In 2005 the sides negotiated a different formula for setting the salary cap but not maximum salaries, so the two became decoupled, and this continued in the 2011 agreement. For this reason the maximum salaries are not actually 25%, 30% or 35% of the cap, and instead are a slightly lower amount.

Gasol salary for next season is $19,285,850.
Fro reference, the max salary this year is $19,136,250.

[Chinook]

http://www.cbafaq.com/salarycap.htm#Q16



Gasol salary for next season is $19,285,850.
Fro reference, the max salary this year is $19,136,250.

Indeed, you are correct. Damn them for making that idiosyncrasy :lol. Thanks for the correction.

Still, Gasol at $20 Million may as well be Gasol at $22 Million.

[Spursfanfromafar]

You don't understand how much a player who is well on the wrong side of 30, on a team that has no chance to ring, will cost. The FULL tax penalty kicks in this summer. LA is in the top bracket of > $15M over the tax and they are a repeat offender. That means for every $1 they are over the tax, they have to pay $4.25. Gasol makes $18.71M. Figure out the tax on top of THAT. If they were competitive, that would be one thing. They're not. Even getting Kobe back, they will struggle to get into the top half of the Western Conference draw next year. They're not very fucking good. Nash isn't injured, he's 40 and will not get much better or healthier than he is now.

He's unhappy, and a terrible fit for D'Antoni's system. They could get what D'Antoni uses him for, elbow jumpers and rebounding, from someone a lot cheaper.

I completely agree. The question is not whether the Lakers will use the amnesty provision, but rather who would use it for.

The most logical - simply from a point of rationality - use would be, on Kobe Bryant. He is injured, suffers from a difficult injury to recover from, and he makes way too much money. Amnestying him will help the Lakers cut the most from the presumptive "losses" because of the luxury taxes. But logic isn't something that will work here, simply because it will mean a massive loss of image for the Lakers apropos its fan base if it even thinks of letting Bryant go, even for a season.

The second logical case is that of Gasol. This too would save them big dollars and I think that the Laker fans have reconciled to a loss of Gasol for sometime now. The trouble is this decision will be tied up to what Howard would do in free agency. It remains to be seen, but general history tells us that a) Howard will not forgo a $30million-extra-on the table deal. b) Howard's advisers will tell him that he would have to grin and bear a bad Lakers season for about one year, but the offseason of 2014 and Lakers' cap space should yield a better era for them and he could lead a new dynasty. In all likelihood therefore, Howard should be back. That makes Gasol's amnesty very likely.

The other option is to amnesty Ron Artest and try to sell Gasol for parts, with the proviso that these parts don't cost cap space from 2014 onwards. It is going to be extremely difficult for the Lakers to do so. But we never know, there must be some stupid GM out there willing to bite the bullet. Take, someone like Ernie Grunfeld perhaps. Will he for e.g. exchange Okafor + Ariza (both on expirings) for Gasol to add to a crew of Wall + Beal + Nene? (Mind it though that Okafor has a ETO and Ariza has a player option and they can be traded only after the former decides not to exercise, while the latter does the opposite - the likelihood of both being high). [Just for trade due to requirements' sake though, both Okafor & Ariza dont make sense in a D'Antoni squad].

Amnestying Artest will save the Lakers, what, $30 million (right, Bruno?) unlike the $75 million or so by doing the same on Gasol. But for the big money Lakers, I think there is some possibility that they could take a half a hit instead of a full hit (even if it makes sense to parry the hit entirely).

By looking at all scenarios, amnestying Gasol seems the most optimal option that the Lakers could pursue. And that would be a delight if it was the case.

[exstatic]

I completely agree. The question is not whether the Lakers will use the amnesty provision, but rather who would use it for.

The most logical - simply from a point of rationality - use would be, on Kobe Bryant. He is injured, suffers from a difficult injury to recover from, and he makes way too much money. Amnestying him will help the Lakers cut the most from the presumptive "losses" because of the luxury taxes. But logic isn't something that will work here, simply because it will mean a massive loss of image for the Lakers apropos its fan base if it even thinks of letting Bryant go, even for a season.

The second logical case is that of Gasol. This too would save them big dollars and I think that the Laker fans have reconciled to a loss of Gasol for sometime now. The trouble is this decision will be tied up to what Howard would do in free agency. It remains to be seen, but general history tells us that a) Howard will not forgo a $30million-extra-on the table deal. b) Howard's advisers will tell him that he would have to grin and bear a bad Lakers season for about one year, but the offseason of 2014 and Lakers' cap space should yield a better era for them and he could lead a new dynasty. In all likelihood therefore, Howard should be back. That makes Gasol's amnesty very likely.

The other option is to amnesty Ron Artest and try to sell Gasol for parts, with the proviso that these parts don't cost cap space from 2014 onwards. It is going to be extremely difficult for the Lakers to do so. But we never know, there must be some stupid GM out there willing to bite the bullet. Take, someone like Ernie Grunfeld perhaps. Will he for e.g. exchange Okafor + Ariza (both on expirings) for Gasol to add to a crew of Wall + Beal + Nene? (Mind it though that Okafor has a ETO and Ariza has a player option and they can be traded only after the former decides not to exercise, while the latter does the opposite - the likelihood of both being high). [Just for trade due to requirements' sake though, both Okafor & Ariza dont make sense in a D'Antoni squad].

Amnestying Artest will save the Lakers, what, $30 million (right, Bruno?) unlike the $75 million or so by doing the same on Gasol. But for the big money Lakers, I think there is some possibility that they could take a half a hit instead of a full hit (even if it makes sense to parry the hit entirely).

By looking at all scenarios, amnestying Gasol seems the most optimal option that the Lakers could pursue. And that would be a delight if it was the case.

To me, the kicker is that the way Gasol's being used, he doesn't help them. With him, they'll finish 5-8 in the WC. Without him, they'll finish 5-8 in the WC. In D'Antoni's system, he makes no difference to this team.

[Bruno]

Amnestying Artest will save the Lakers, what, $30 million (right, Bruno?) unlike the $75 million or so by doing the same on Gasol.

Yep, that's basically the numbers. I had estimated $25M for Artest and $70M for Gasol earlier this season but I was including a player signed to a min contract to replace the amnestied player which lowered the savings.

Saying that, something to consider that can change considerably the equation is the revenue sharing system between franchises. Lakers are giving a part of their revenues to smaller franchises and their contribution is limited to 30% of their profits. Amnestying Artest instead of Gasol will basically raise their profits by $45M but up to the 30% of that will end up being given to small market teams through the revenue sharing system.

At the end, I'm not sure of what are the exact financial consequences behind all the possible amnesty scenarios.

[CGD]

So if Pau becomes available and the Spurs make a play hypothetically, what does that mean for Splitter? Is he essentially out?

[TD 21]

If you think they're keeping him for like a +$80M price tag to finish between 5 an 8 in the WC you don't.

You're making the classic mistake people make on sports message boards, which is presuming what will be done is what you think should be done, rather than how the subject in question is known to operate.

And on top of that, you lack reading comprehension. I didn't say they'd be keeping him necessarily, I said they're not amnestying him.


No your just wrong.

So I'm wrong because I dismissed something that Bruno said? :rollin

This is the part where you repeat the same answer and pretend it has nothing to do with that, even though it has everything to.


I get what you're saying. But it's hard enough to justify Gasol at $18 Million; it's impossible (in my opinion) to justify him at $22 Million. Committing more than a third of your cap to a declining player AND giving up assets? It seems unlikely to me, especially since if the Lakers attempt to trade him, they won't be able to keep him.

The only team that might do that is Dallas. Everyone else would just re-sign their free agents.

Committing whatever the exact number turns out to be for ONE YEAR, though. The Mavs check off every imaginable box: Committed to spending, desperate to make something resembling an impact move, a gaping hole in the middle and they'll be hard pressed to do better.

Again, the assets would be minimal. I'm talking about some combination of Crowder, Cunningham, James, the rights to Koponen, Calathes and draft picks (not this year's 1st, which will be mid round, albeit in a weak draft).

And why wouldn't the Hawks be interested for some combination of Jenkins, Scott and draft picks? Again, we're talking one year, so they could just roll their cap space over into '14, when the free agent class is better anyway.

[exstatic]

So if Pau becomes available and the Spurs make a play hypothetically, what does that mean for Splitter? Is he essentially out?

I don't think they make a play unless Splitter gets an offer they don't want to match.

[exstatic]

You're making the classic mistake people make on sports message boards, which is presuming what will be done is what you think should be done, rather than how the subject in question is known to operate.

And on top of that, you lack reading comprehension. I didn't say they'd be keeping him necessarily, I said they're not amnestying him.

Your mistake is not understanding the severity of the tax penalties this year, and that no one has EVER operated under these circumstances before. Your whole premise is based on past Laker actions under the dollar for dollar penalty, the good old days. Those days are as dead as Jacob Marley.

[Spursfanfromafar]

So if Pau becomes available and the Spurs make a play hypothetically, what does that mean for Splitter? Is he essentially out?

If Gasol comes to play for the Spurs, it would be an embarrassment of riches for the squad and an embarrassment that we should love to have. Of course, Splitter will be re-signed, he represents the future. Gasol would be a valuable veteran add, probably only for one season and will be the third big, who could also possibly start with Splitter and giving Duncan some well earned extra rest in his final seasons.

Wouldn't necessarily make the Spurs instant contenders against the Heat, but a Duncan-Splitter-Gasol frontline would surely make the Heat to think twice before continuing their unorthodox go-small-but-strong approach with their reliance on superb wing play alone.

[Cklbmk]

I don't think they make a play unless Splitter gets an offer they don't want to match.


I would let Splitter walk for 3~ years of Gasol and Timmy

Close games with Tony Manu Kawhi Pau Tim GG

[SpursBills]

I would let Splitter walk for 3~ years of Gasol and Timmy

Close games with Tony Manu Kawhi Pau Tim GG

I disagree with this - I think splitter is essential for the future because he is the only big mobile enough to cover quicker fours. He is also our best defender against the PNR. A Gasol-Duncan lineup, while potent offensively, would probably get eaten up defensively by PNR reliant teams, which is what the league is transitioning to nowadays anyway.

[Richie]

Pau is a horrible PnR defender, and thats something we exploited time and time again in the last few weeks.

That said, I'd throw everything we can at him if he is amnestied. Would 10m be enough? Probably not.

[CGD]

^ The amnesty thing is neat in that Pau can choose where he WANTS to play (contender v. non-contender). Lakers are picking up the tab next year. Spurs can give him a one year deal if he really wants to test the market afterward, or a two year deal with a player option in the 2nd year. If Pau wants years (most likely at his age) I wonder if the Spurs could get creative with the contract offer -- low salary in year one to leverage the fact that the Lakers are picking up most of it, and then offer him more money in years 2 and 3.

[CGD]

The other thing to keep in mind is that Pau has been very injured over the past two years. Could lower the asking price?

[Richie]

^ The amnesty thing is neat in that Pau can choose where he WANTS to play (contender v. non-contender). Lakers are picking up the tab next year. Spurs can give him a one year deal if he really wants to test the market afterward, or a two year deal with a player option in the 2nd year. If Pau wants years (most likely at his age) I wonder if the Spurs could get creative with the contract offer -- low salary in year one to leverage the fact that the Lakers are picking up most of it, and then offer him more money in years 2 and 3.

Pretty sure this isn't true. The player will go to the team who makes the highest bid.

[TD 21]

Your mistake is not understanding the severity of the tax penalties this year, and that no one has EVER operated under these circumstances before. Your whole premise is based on past Laker actions under the dollar for dollar penalty, the good old days. Those days are as dead as Jacob Marley.

I understand them just fine. Once again, you're wrong. My whole premise is based on the principal.

[exstatic]

^ The amnesty thing is neat in that Pau can choose where he WANTS to play (contender v. non-contender). Lakers are picking up the tab next year. Spurs can give him a one year deal if he really wants to test the market afterward, or a two year deal with a player option in the 2nd year. If Pau wants years (most likely at his age) I wonder if the Spurs could get creative with the contract offer -- low salary in year one to leverage the fact that the Lakers are picking up most of it, and then offer him more money in years 2 and 3.

:lol:rollin No he CAN'T. It's a friggin auction and whoever bids the highest on his contract gets him.

[CGD]

^ Yup y'all are right. I'm owning it. I completely forgot about the procedure. Wishful thinking. Wonder what the winning bid would have to be.

[exstatic]

^ Yup y'all are right. I'm owning it. I completely forgot about the procedure. Wishful thinking. Wonder what the winning bid would have to be.

He's overpaid at what he's making, but at $10M, he's a nice 1 year rental. Ending contracts for 2014 will also be at a premium, since that's going to be a big FA year. Teams with space this summer, a relatively weak FA class, could use Gasol to "kick the can down the road" a year and have space next summer.

[Mel_13]

Bruno,

How about an Amnesty candidate thread for Artest? He's at least as likely as Gasol to be amnestied, and there is a role for him to fill on the Spurs.

[mudyez]

He will never be a Spur, but only imagine a Duncan/Gasol frontcourt makes me cum.

[Libri]

The Spurs would have a legitimate twin towers. It won't happen.

[bluebellmaniac]

He's been contaminated by the Laker virus. Once that happens, it's pretty much over. Look at what happened to Bynum when he left (And by left I mean shoved out the door). If Pau leaves, then his foot problems will suddenly explode and his career would probably be over... A hobbled 7 footer with the receiving team screwed on his salary commitment. Take a pass on him.

[Richie]

As soon as Kobe went down, Gasol was dropping triple-doubles like it was nothing.

Dude is still supremely skilled, but couldn't be paired with Duncan for significant stretches because of his poor PnR defence. Would still be a great player to have though, could play plenty of minutes in the regular season with Tiago and give Timmy a lot of rest.

[exstatic]

He's been contaminated by the Laker virus. Once that happens, it's pretty much over. Look at what happened to Bynum when he left (And by left I mean shoved out the door). If Pau leaves, then his foot problems will suddenly explode and his career would probably be over... A hobbled 7 footer with the receiving team screwed on his salary commitment. Take a pass on him.

He's only got one year left. Not much of a hobble.

[bluebellmaniac]

He's only got one year left. Not much of a hobble.

It's not much of a hobble if you aren't the one writing his checks. LOL! $20M is a hell of a hobble, even if for only one year.

But on a more serious note, he does have Plantar Fascilaskjf;alskdjf ;alkfious. or however it is spelled. How serious is that and does it bode ill on him for next season?

[exstatic]

It's not much of a hobble if you aren't the one writing his checks. LOL! $20M is a hell of a hobble, even if for only one year.

But on a more serious note, he does have Plantar Fascilaskjf;alskdjf ;alkfious. or however it is spelled. How serious is that and does it bode ill on him for next season?

Not if he doesn't play this summer.

Seriously, there are teams that are going to WANT a large one year cap hit. There are crap FAs this summer, and there is a GREAT class in 2014. They'll grab Gasol, and "kick the can down the road" for one year so that they have cap room in 2014.

[Mal]

As soon as Kobe went down, Gasol was dropping triple-doubles like it was nothing.

Dude is still supremely skilled, but couldn't be paired with Duncan for significant stretches because of his poor PnR defence. Would still be a great player to have though, could play plenty of minutes in the regular season with Tiago and give Timmy a lot of rest.

Skillful bigmen is always welcome. Surround Gasol with solid/above average PnR defender and you wont see the diffrence.

Having big men rotation of Duncan, Gasol, Splitter,Diaw, Bonner and Bayness would be awesome. None of them shouldnt reach 30 mpg in regular season.

[exstatic]

Skillful bigmen is always welcome. Surround Gasol with solid/above average PnR defender and you wont see the diffrence.

Having big men rotation of Duncan, Gasol, Splitter,Diaw, Bonner and Bayness would be awesome. None of them shouldnt reach 30 mpg in regular season.

There will be no Gasol/Splitter. If Splitter is re-signed, the Spurs won't have enough cap room to bid successfully for Gasol if he were amnestied. We can only really afford to be amnesty bidders for Gasol if Splitter gets a ridiculous offer and the Spurs chose not to match.

[Mal]

As I recall Spurs will have plenty of room, and they can throw 10mil for Gasol, even with Splitter resigned, whose price went down IMO. It`s way better option, than signing Millsap or Josh Smith.

[Richie]

There will be no Gasol/Splitter. If Splitter is re-signed, the Spurs won't have enough cap room to bid successfully for Gasol if he were amnestied. We can only really afford to be amnesty bidders for Gasol if Splitter gets a ridiculous offer and the Spurs chose not to match.

I'm not sure. There's a huge number of variables but it mainly comes down to what Manu is willing to take and what the salary cap is. If Manu takes around MLE money or less and the cap goes up, we could be looking at $10m. Use the stretch provision on Diaw and that figure could go as high as $13m which could be enough to get Gasol, but maybe not.

[exstatic]

I'm not sure. There's a huge number of variables but it mainly comes down to what Manu is willing to take and what the salary cap is. If Manu takes around MLE money or less and the cap goes up, we could be looking at $10m. Use the stretch provision on Diaw and that figure could go as high as $13m which could be enough to get Gasol, but maybe not.

Where's Splitter in your equation?

[Richie]

Where's Splitter in your equation?

He only has a $7.5m cap hold. Assuming a $62m cap (perhaps a little ambitious) we'd be $22.5m under the cap. Splitters cap hold puts us to around $15m, Manu's cap hold wipes that out but if he signs for $5m then we have $10m for free agents. Waive Diaw and that can go up to $13m.

[exstatic]

He only has a $7.5m cap hold. Assuming a $62m cap (perhaps a little ambitious) we'd be $22.5m under the cap. Splitters cap hold puts us to around $15m, Manu's cap hold wipes that out but if he signs for $5m then we have $10m for free agents. Waive Diaw and that can go up to $13m.

Ah, OK. I think your cap figure is ambitious, and I doubt seriously they'd dump Diaw for only a CHANCE at Gasol. Does your cap figure include Bonner, or are you dumping him, too? A realistic projection of what the Spurs might or might not do must include a veteran stretch 4.

[Richie]

Ah, OK. I think your cap figure is ambitious, and I doubt seriously they'd dump Diaw for only a CHANCE at Gasol. Does your cap figure include Bonner, or are you dumping him, too? A realistic projection of what the Spurs might or might not do must include a veteran stretch 4.

I'm not sure about a stretch 4 tbh. No teams respect Diaws jumpshot, and the rest of the time we just play with Tiago/Timmy. I think we've shown we can get by without a stretch 4 if required.

I think my cap maths includes amnestying Bonner (saving us his $1m cap hit) and draft and stash our #28.

Even if you reduce the cap to a more realistic $60m, that could still give us a possible $11m. I'm not sure if we would have to waive Diaw before the bid, or just if we won. If it's the former then I can see why we wouldn't be willing to do it.

[exstatic]

I'm not sure about a stretch 4 tbh. No teams respect Diaws jumpshot, and the rest of the time we just play with Tiago/Timmy. I think we've shown we can get by without a stretch 4 if required.

I think my cap maths includes amnestying Bonner (saving us his $1m cap hit) and draft and stash our #28.

Even if you reduce the cap to a more realistic $60m, that could still give us a possible $11m. I'm not sure if we would have to waive Diaw before the bid, or just if we won. If it's the former then I can see why we wouldn't be willing to do it.

I think you have to have the cap room available before you make a bid. Diaw also brings much more than just his shooting. The ball MOVES when he's on the floor.

[Chinook]

I just realized that the Lakers can receive a player in a sign-and-trade for Pau pretty easily, so long as they do so before officially re-signing Howard. If the Lakers wanted Splitter, for example, they could sign him to a deal up to the max and still be under the tax until they inked Dwight. Howard's cap hold shouldn't affect this. That makes it significantly less likely that the Lakers would amnesty Gasol.

Is this true? If so, would it be a good deal for the Spurs to acquire Gasol for Splitter and use the MLE/trades to improve rather than trying to keep Tiago and Ginobili and using the remaining cap space on a free agent or two?

[Mel_13]

I just realized that the Lakers can receive a player in a sign-and-trade for Pau pretty easily, so long as they do so before officially re-signing Howard. If the Lakers wanted Splitter, for example, they could sign him to a deal up to the max and still be under the tax until they inked Dwight. Howard's cap hold shouldn't affect this. That makes it significantly less likely that the Lakers would amnesty Gasol.

Is this true? If so, would it be a good deal for the Spurs to acquire Gasol for Splitter and use the MLE/trades to improve rather than trying to keep Tiago and Ginobili and using the remaining cap space on a free agent or two?

For teams that receive a player in a sign and trade, the tax apron effectively becomes a hard cap. So even if the transaction you suggest was possible, and I'm not sure that it is, then the Lakers would have to fit all subsequent roster moves under the apron. That would mean letting Howard walk.

[Chinook]

For teams that receive a player in a sign and trade, the tax apron effectively becomes a hard cap. So even if the transaction you suggest was possible, and I'm not sure that it is, then the Lakers would have to fit all subsequent roster moves under the apron. That would mean letting Howard walk.

I was using this part of the CBA FAQ to make my observation:


82. How do simultaneous trades work? How much salary can a team take back in a simultaneous trade?A simultaneous trade takes place all at once. The amount of salary a team can take back in a simultaneous trade depends on the outgoing salary and whether the team is a taxpayer. They always use the post-trade team salary when looking at whether a team is a taxpayer, so a team under the tax level would be considered a taxpayer if the trade takes them over the tax level.

The apron may work differently, but I didn't see anything on that. You're correct that the apron would become a hard cap, but the Lakers may be able to squeeze Howard in under the apron if they cut bait with most of the rest of their roster. That would involve essentially tanking next season, but they may be considering doing that anyway without Bryant and with them being in tax hell right now. I see no reason why they'd want to have Howard AND Splitter, so it would be likelier (that's a word, apparently) that Los Angeles would target Splitter only if they decided to go into full rebuilding mode without Howard. Splitter is a better fit for D'Antoni's offense, and if they want to keep the SSOL, getting Splitter and Kevin Love (for example) would be much better for them than keeping their current bigs.

In any event, horribly unlikely. Just trying to think outside the box, here.

[Mel_13]

Just trying to think outside the box, here.

That's what the Think Tank is for.

While it's extremely unlikely that one of us will find a previously unknown loophole in the CBA, there's no harm in trying and it can generate good discussion.

[exstatic]

I was using this part of the CBA FAQ to make my observation:



The apron may work differently, but I didn't see anything on that. You're correct that the apron would become a hard cap, but the Lakers may be able to squeeze Howard in under the apron if they cut bait with most of the rest of their roster. That would involve essentially tanking next season, but they may be considering doing that anyway without Bryant and with them being in tax hell right now. I see no reason why they'd want to have Howard AND Splitter, so it would be likelier (that's a word, apparently) that Los Angeles would target Splitter only if they decided to go into full rebuilding mode without Howard. Splitter is a better fit for D'Antoni's offense, and if they want to keep the SSOL, getting Splitter and Kevin Love (for example) would be much better for them than keeping their current bigs.

In any event, horribly unlikely. Just trying to think outside the box, here.
This is the summer that the serial free spenders get butt fucked. LA's chickens are coming home to roost.

There's zero chance of them getting Splitter. That would require cap room in the summer of 2013, something they will have ZERO of. They'll be lucky to hold onto the sad team they had last year.

[SanDiegoSpursFan]

Gasol's skill-set would be good on offense for the Spurs, but if him and Duncan were starters in the front court at this stage of their careers, the Pick-and-Roll/Pop would annihilate the Spurs.

[DesignatedT]

If Pau were to be amnestied when would that decision have to take place? Any chance he still is?

[Bruno]

If Pau were to be amnestied when would that decision have to take place? Any chance he still is?

Players will be amnestied between July 10th and July 16th. If Howard leaves Lakers, Gasol surely won't be amnestied. If Howard re-sign with Lakers, Gasol amnestied is a possibility even if a lot of journalists are saying that Artest will be the one amnestied.

[CGD]

Would have loved this guys, but i think Diva is leaving LAL.

[spursince#99]

would most certainly love this idea.

[look_at_g_shred]

No thanks.

[jesterbobman]

I expect Dwight to leave, but if he's let go, you have to submit a bid. While he didn't look great this year, he's been a really good player for a long time and has sufficient passing and shooting skills to fit our system.

[DesignatedT]

352099159739867138

What are the odds that Pau gets amnestied if Howard re-signs?

[CGD]

I would love the guy next to Tim if he were but now they have splitter Locked in. This is who ATL, Dallas, and Houston will throw their Howard cap-space at. Portland I'm sure would also be peaked.

[Josepatches_]

Atlanta? Portland?

Pau would sign with a title contender. I like our chances if we have interest.

[CGD]

Well if he's amnestied then he has no choice really. It's highest bidder there.

[spurraider21]

funny that palmer tweeted that in the morning before he met with the mavs or the lakers...

[coyotes_geek]

Predictably, no Dwight = no Gasol amnesty....

http://espn.go.com/los-angeles/nba/story/_/id/9454140/los-angeles-lakers-not-use-amnesty-clause-pau-gasol

[exstatic]

Predictably, no Dwight = no Gasol amnesty....

http://espn.go.com/los-angeles/nba/story/_/id/9454140/los-angeles-lakers-not-use-amnesty-clause-pau-gasol
Yeah.

/thread

[spurraider21]

MWP set to be amnestied, so Pau will be set for unrestricted free agency in 2014. I wonder what sort of deal he would be seeking, and what sort of offer he'd receive at age 34. He still has game, though his defense has declined with his lateral quickness shot

[Mr.Bottomtooth]

Pau Gasol, agente libre, dijo que le gustaría jugar en los Spurs. San Antonio se cree que tendrá 10 millones libres en el tope salarial

https://twitter.com/JulianMozo/status/465519887893671937

Pau Gasol shows interest in playing for the Spurs, the Spurs can have $10M in cap room this summer.

[AFBlue]

https://twitter.com/JulianMozo/status/465519887893671937

Pau Gasol shows interest in playing for the Spurs, the Spurs can have $10M in cap room this summer.

Does that $10M assume Duncan opts out/retires? That's probably the most likely scenario where he lands in SA tbqh, but I'm curious if the Spurs can arrive at that cap situation some other way.

[Mel_13]

Does that $10M assume Duncan opts out/retires? That's probably the most likely scenario where he lands in SA tbqh, but I'm curious if the Spurs can arrive at that cap situation some other way.

They would have something close to that number if they didn't bring back any of their free agents. That's not going to happen, so he'd have to take the MLE if he wants to be a Spur. (Assuming that Duncan returns)

[Chinook]

The Spurs would have about $18 Million to re-sign Diaw and Mills and to sign a free agent if Duncan opts out and retires. That'd probably be just enough to do that, with perhaps the space to sign a player or two like Bertans or Denmon to a long-term deal. Then, the team would have the room exception to sign someone else (maybe Baynes). All in all, it wouldn't be a horrible off-season plan.

As I said to an annoying extent, I'd pass on Gasol if Duncan stays on. Even if Diaw and Mills move on to greener pastures, I'd rather the team go after a big like Ed Davis or to a significantly lesser extent, Greg Monroe or Ekpe Udoh. Or I'd try to trade for Ilyasova (still high on him).