ESPN'S Henry Abbott on Pop's Unconventional Approach to the end of the Rocket's Game

[BillMc]

http://espn.go.com/blog/truehoop/post/_/id/56018/the-spurs-unconventional-crunch-time

So, in essence, Pop is a poker player who follows the big-picture statistical probability, rather than the "hot hand."
Interesting take by Abbott

[Seventyniner]

In terms of expected value, a 30% chance at a three-pointer is the same as a 45% chance at a two. In crunch time, though, such as "up 1 with possession, 40 seconds left," the 45% two-pointer is better because it has the same expectation at a lower variance. In fact, many would be willing to sacrifice some amount of expectation to lower variance. In the real world, it's called insurance.

[racm]

Pop choosing to go to Manu and Timmy for the potential game winning play instead of a clutch Parker = :lol

[TheGoldStandard]

Pop choosing to go to Manu and Timmy for the potential game winning play instead of a clutch Parker = :lol

Someone needs to see if Pop is gambling in Las Vegas with some of these decisions. Duncan had 17 points on what 28 shots? Manu was 1/6 before that rebound shot meanwhile parker had a 10 point run in the 4th and didn't get a touch in the last 3 possessions. This is the equivalent of Pop having 20 at the black jack table and then saying hit me.

[therealtruth]

Someone needs to see if Pop is gambling in Las Vegas with some of these decisions. Duncan had 17 points on what 28 shots? Manu was 1/6 before that rebound shot meanwhile parker had a 10 point run in the 4th and didn't get a touch in the last 3 possessions. This is the equivalent of Pop having 20 at the black jack table and then saying hit me.

That's what happens when you don't believe in the hot hand. McHale does and they won the game as a result.

[Kidd K]

I'm glad someone wrote an article about it. The Pop bashing can get ridiculous at times. Yeah we lost, but so? He's made great moves that may have seemed odd at the time yet worked. . .all the time. Nobody's out here bitching about it and getting proven wrong because you have only a couple seconds to bitch about it before finding out it worked. No one's going to keep typing their post after the shot goes in and say Pop is a dumbass for making that decision when it was already proven to have worked.

Don't lie, you guys have yelled or been frustrated about choices Pop has made constantly and been wrong about it. It's unfair to sit here and bitch about it just because he was wrong this time. Basketball, and sports in general, isn't a game of 100% certainty. Fuck, a great player in basketball only does it right 50% of the time. Why should Pop be held any more accountable when he's right far more often than you'd ever want out of a coach? He isn't shooting these shots himself.

There's even a thread near the top of the list right now about using Leonard more. . .well he did, and look what happened.


In terms of expected value, a 30% chance at a three-pointer is the same as a 45% chance at a two. In crunch time, though, such as "up 1 with possession, 40 seconds left," the 45% two-pointer is better because it has the same expectation at a lower variance. In fact, many would be willing to sacrifice some amount of expectation to lower variance. In the real world, it's called insurance.

Actually, 2 point jumpshots have a 39% to go in on average I believe.

Kawhi shoots 37.6% from three this year (37.8% before the brick), and the odds of making a three from the corner while wide open are higher than taking them anywhere else on the floor (39.2%, league average).

So technically, that shot was more likely to go in than some contested 2 point attempt. It was as likely to go in as any open mid range 2 point jumper, based on statistics.

[Spur Bank]

Pop choosing to go to Manu and Timmy for the potential game winning play instead of a clutch Parker = :lol


Someone needs to see if Pop is gambling in Las Vegas with some of these decisions. Duncan had 17 points on what 28 shots? Manu was 1/6 before that rebound shot meanwhile parker had a 10 point run in the 4th and didn't get a touch in the last 3 possessions. This is the equivalent of Pop having 20 at the black jack table and then saying hit me.


That's what happens when you don't believe in the hot hand. McHale does and they won the game as a result.
You three are a prime example of why San Antonio has a reputation of being dumb.

I actually have doubts that you three could answer this question: You're at a casino and see a roulette table has just landed on red 15 times in a row. Is the next spin more likely to come up red or black?

[DrSteffo]

You three are a prime example of why San Antonio has a reputation of being dumb.

I actually have doubts that you three could answer this question: You're at a casino and see a roulette table has just landed on red 15 times in a row. Is the next spin more likely to come up red or black?

What is also dumb is thinking human beings are not human beings when they play basketball. To completely ignore psychology in sports is just as stupid as thinking a roulette table has a memory.

[Man In Black]

You three are a prime example of why San Antonio has a reputation of being dumb.

I actually have doubts that you three could answer this question: You're at a casino and see a roulette table has just landed on red 15 times in a row. Is the next spin more likely to come up red or black?
its almost 50-50 for either red or black, almost accounting for the green sections for 0 and 00.

[freetiago]

Basketball isnt played on computers
Popovich and his stats is what leads SA to be the worst team in the league at defending the mid range shot
and what was part of the downfall of the Spurs in the past 2 playoff runs
but but its the most inefficient shot

[will_spurs]

This article doesn't fly because both the statistical and the hot hand approach point to the same outcome: give the damn ball to Tony.

Unless you want to start arguing that a .505% shooter who gets 5.0 FTA/36 is a better option statistically than a .535% shooter who gets 5.5 FTA/36.

(and I'm even going into the fact that one is a .806% FT shooter with a 3.3 assist/36 rate while the other is a .832 FT shooter with a 8.2 assist/36 rate)

[EricB]

Basketball isnt played on computers
Popovich and his stats is what leads SA to be the worst team in the league at defending the mid range shot
and what was part of the downfall of the Spurs in the past 2 playoff runs
but but its the most inefficient shot


Lol love how you counter your own argument.

[George Gervin's Afro]

Sounds like Pop plays alot of black jack