America's Coming Demographic Disaster

[symple19]

Ran across this review of a topic I haven't heard much about lately, at least not from the perspective of depopulation and its possible perils.

http://bookforum.com/inprint/020_01/11232


They continue to. By 1979 the global fertility rate was 6.0, and now it’s 2.52, according to UN data. All first-world countries are already below a 2.1 rate, the “replacement level” needed to keep a population constant, and fertility rates are plummeting throughout developing nations as well. “Today,” writes Last, “only 3 percent of the world’s population lives in a country whose fertility rate is not declining.” The UN projects that world population, currently around seven billion, will peak over the next eighty-five years between ten billion and twelve billion people before starting a long and inexorable decline. Which is, Last argues, precisely the real cataclysm humanity faces. Though he says he isn’t “selling doom,” Last’s own last-days prediction is right there in his book’s subtitle: America’s Coming Demographic Disaster. Building on trends identified and anxieties aired by writers such as Phillip Longman (author of 2004’s The Empty Cradle: How Falling Birthrates Threaten World Prosperity and What to Do About It), Last invokes a vision of the future that is basically a photographic negative of Ehrlich’s.

Absent massive, sustained levels of immigration, he writes, low-birthrate countries such as Italy, Spain, Germany, and Greece will by century’s end see “their populations . . . shrink by 86 percent, 85 percent, 83 percent, and 74 percent, respectively.” This is already happening in Japan, where the population peaked a few years back at around 127 million, and is now contracting. “If Japan’s fertility stays where it is,” Last writes, “the country will contract by more than half—to 56.8 million—by the end of the century.”:wow In the United States, our fertility rate of around 2.0 has been inflated by immigrant mothers, who tend to have more kids than native-born women. But not only is a thirty-year wave of immigration subsiding; the women who are still coming to America are also starting to have fewer babies.



Interesting stuff

[boutons_deux]

Hispanic Pregnancies Fall in U.S. as Women Choose Smaller Families


http://graphics8.nytimes.com/images/2013/01/01/us/01birthrate-graphic/01birthrate-graphic-articleInline.gif

The decline in birthrates was steepest among Mexican-American women and women who immigrated from Mexico, at 25.7 percent. This has reversed a trend in which immigrant mothers accounted for a rising share of births in the United States, according to a recentreport (http://www.pewsocialtrends.org/2012/11/29/u-s-birth-rate-falls-to-a-record-low-decline-is-greatest-among-immigrants/) by the Pew Research Center. In 2010, birthrates among all Hispanics reached their lowest level in 20 years, the center found.

The sudden drop-off, which coincided with the onset of the recession, suggests that attitudes have changed since the days when older generations of Latinos prized large families and more closely followed Roman Catholic teachings, which forbid artificial contraception (http://health.nytimes.com/health/guides/specialtopic/birth-control-and-family-planning/overview.html?inline=nyt-classifier).

Interviews with young Latinas, as well as reproductive health experts, show that the reasons for deciding to have fewer children are many, involving greater access to information about contraceptives and women’s health, as well as higher education.

http://www.nytimes.com/2013/01/01/health/us-birthrate-dips-especially-for-hispanics.html?_r=0

Non-industrial countries want to consume energy, food, and consumer shit like industrial countries' lifestyles, but there isn't enough food, water, and energy to go around. Their is over-capacity in producing consumer shit, but that also consumes water and energy.

[CosmicCowboy]

The really scary demographic for the US is that 48% of all first born children in the US are currently being born to unwed mothers...typically undereducated, unskilled underclass, resulting in an ever growing dependent class and a constantly shrinking productive class.

[Wild Cobra]

The really scary demographic for the US is that 48% of all first born children in the US are currently being born to unwed mothers...typically undereducated, unskilled underclass, resulting in an ever growing dependent class and a constantly shrinking productive class.
Yes.

You and I, and other tax paying citizens end up paying for them.

[boutons_deux]

Yes.

You and I, and other tax paying citizens end up paying for them.

right wing myth, which will be even more myth when the undoc immigrants get legal residence permit, SSN, file taxes, and health insurance.

What you aren't paying for is fruit and veg prices if ag workers were paid at least minimum wage, or better.

America is progressing, in spite of you retrograde assholes.

[Dirk Oneanddoneski]

http://www.resist.com/CARTOON%20GALLERY/SPICS/spics_image03.jpg

[Latarian Milton]

america will never have any concern about a lack of population imho, when the US is the favorite place to live in for 90% of people from the rest of the world. just open up the borders and the US population will exceed china within a month tbh.

[BradLohaus]

Long story short: war. The social pyramid systems collapse with these rates, obviously.

White people, who invented and have been sustaining these systems, aren't reproducing themselves nearly enough.

[boutons_deux]

white, conservative right-wingers racism here becomes blatant, matching the racism of the Repug and tea bagger politicians.

"social pyramid systems collapse" :lol

It's not the non-whites that are the main risk to USA (and the planet), it's the 1% sucking the wealth of the 99%, the criminal, untouchable financial system, the polluting, murdering corporations.

[BradLohaus]

Racism!!

Please explain how declining birthrates are going to pay for an aging population, everywhere. And it's simply a fact that whites: 1.) pay a higher percentage of the taxes, and 2.) Have lower birthrates than non-whites. Racism!!

The fraction of a fraction of the 1% that runs the financial system is signigicantly criminal though.

[boutons_deux]

Racism!!

Please explain how declining birthrates are going to pay for an aging population, everywhere. And it's simply a fact that whites: 1.) pay a higher percentage of the taxes, and 2.) Have lower birthrates than non-whites. Racism!!

The fraction of a fraction of the 1% that runs the financial system is signigicantly criminal though.

so, in fact, you are FOR what the Repugs derice a a Ponzi scheme?

Privatizing SS into the criminal financial sector would be a bigger disaster than declining birth rates.

more babies objectified simply as sources of tax revenue, sorta like woman objectified as vaginas. What's not to love about right-wing politics?

The biggest demographic event is Hitler's baby boom, not declining birth rates.

The biggest financial problem is the greedy health care sector over-charging while not getting any better outcomes than other industrial countries with $Ks per capita less in health spending.

If you want more babies, then make it cheaper, easier to have babies, with subsidized births, low-cost child care centers, fully paid, long-term maternity leave, etc, etc. Repugs will obstruct all that.

[BradLohaus]

If you want more babies, then make it cheaper, easier to have babies, with subsidized births, low-cost child care centers, fully paid, long-term maternity leave, etc, etc. Repugs will obstruct all that.

That defeats the purpose.

[Winehole23]

Long story short: war. The social pyramid systems collapse with these rates, obviously.

White people, who invented and have been sustaining these systems, aren't reproducing themselves nearly enough.mightn't there be some way to encourage young, educated people from more traditional (i.e., Roman Catholic or paternalistic) countries to immigrate?

[BradLohaus]

They're not having enough kids either. Muslims are for now though... that can only end well for Europe

[Wild Cobra]

mightn't there be some way to encourage young, educated people from more traditional (i.e., Roman Catholic or paternalistic) countries to immigrate?
Fine, if there are good paying jobs for them to take to help pull the wagon, instead of becoming part of those who are being pulled in the wagon.

[FuzzyLumpkins]

It wouldn't be so bad if the large generations would have paid their own way instead of piling up debt and sailing off into the entitlement sunset.

[rjv]

Racism!!

Please explain how declining birthrates are going to pay for an aging population, everywhere. And it's simply a fact that whites: 1.) pay a higher percentage of the taxes, and 2.) Have lower birthrates than non-whites. Racism!!

The fraction of a fraction of the 1% that runs the financial system is signigicantly criminal though.

they also receive the most welfare. hispanics also have the fastest declining fertility rate

[BradLohaus]

Whites receive the most welfare for the same reason that they shoot the most people.

Hispanic birthrates decline the least because whites and blacks have dropped off of a cliff, which is the point of this thread.

[rjv]

Whites receive the most welfare for the same reason that they shoot the most people.

Hispanic birthrates decline the least because whites and blacks have dropped off of a cliff, which is the point of this thread.

percentages are not sheer numbers. they are proportions. and whites have not dropped off a cliff. the fertility rates for whites in 1990 was 1.9, it was also 1.9 in 2000 and dropped to 1.8 in 2010. Blacks only dropped from 2.2 to 2.0 from 2000 to 2010. hispanic birthrates have declined the most actually (from 3.0 to 2.4 since 1990)

[admiralsnackbar]

percentages are not sheer numbers. they are proportions. and whites have not dropped off a cliff. the fertility rates for whites in 1990 was 1.9, it was also 1.9 in 2000 and dropped to 1.8 in 2010. Blacks only dropped from 2.2 to 2.0 from 2000 to 2010. hispanic birthrates have declined the most actually (from 3.0 to 2.4 since 1990)

Awwww I wanted to make more sweeping generalizations decrying Caucasian victimization at the hands of profligate, melanin-rich barbarians and their jihadist counterparts abroad!

Shucks

[TeyshaBlue]

Awwww I wanted to make more sweeping generalizations decrying Caucasian victimization at the hands of profligate, melanin-rich barbarians and their jihadist counterparts abroad!

Shucks

Go for it, Admiral. Look to WC for inspiration.

[admiralsnackbar]

Go for it, Admiral. Look to WC for inspiration.

Awwww you already know Cobra's wisdom sustains me... he's like that poem about the footprints.

[rjv]

Awwww I wanted to make more sweeping generalizations decrying Caucasian victimization at the hands of profligate, melanin-rich barbarians and their jihadist counterparts abroad!

Shucks


yes, this shameful part of our history will one day replace the holocaust, slavery, and all ethnic genocides as our darkest age.

[TeyshaBlue]

Awwww you already know Cobra's wisdom sustains me... he's like that poem about the footprints.

I always thought of you as a "wind beneath my wings" kind of guy.:lol

[TeyshaBlue]

*Racist bullshit*

How is this piece of shit not banned already?

[boutons_deux]

Dicky Dirky has his "rights" with which goes no responsibility to anyone or anybody, the standard fantasy of right wingers.

[TeyshaBlue]

Dicky Dirky has his "rights" with which goes no responsibility to anyone or anybody, the standard fantasy of right wingers.

lol..this is why nobody takes you seriously, retard.

[TeyshaBlue]

It's a fucking bbs...nobody has "rights". http://homerecording.com/bbs/images/smilies/facepalm.gif

[Dirk Oneanddoneski]

How is this piece of shit not banned already?


why does this n!gger bitch post on a spurs forum?

[TeyshaBlue]

Die in a fire, Gasol.

[boutons_deux]

They have all rights permitted by the BBS owners

[RandomGuy]

It wouldn't be so bad if the large generations would have paid their own way instead of piling up debt and sailing off into the entitlement sunset.

There was an interesting article about the amount of money current seniors paid in, versus what they can expect to take out. Hint: it rhymes with "mess".

Don't ever let anyone over 60 say that they fully paid for their benefits.

[FuzzyLumpkins]

There was an interesting article about the amount of money current seniors paid in, versus what they can expect to take out. Hint: it rhymes with "mess".

Don't ever let anyone over 60 say that they fully paid for their benefits.

Was it this one?


More worrying is that this generation seems to be able to leverage its size into favourable policy. Governments slashed tax rates in the 1980s to revitalise lagging economies, just as boomers approached their prime earning years. The average federal tax rate for a median American household, including income and payroll taxes, dropped from more than 18% in 1981 to just over 11% in 2011. Yet sensible tax reforms left less revenue for the generous benefits boomers have continued to vote themselves, such as a prescription-drug benefit paired with inadequate premiums. Deficits exploded. Erick Eschker, an economist at Humboldt State University, reckons that each American born in 1945 can expect nearly $2.2m in lifetime net transfers from the state—more than any previous cohort.

http://www.economist.com/node/21563725

And man, I want to apologize because I know I pissed you off about the population thing a couple months back. Went about that in a bad way. Regardless hope things are well.

[2centsworth]

There was an interesting article about the amount of money current seniors paid in, versus what they can expect to take out. Hint: it rhymes with "mess".

Don't ever let anyone over 60 say that they fully paid for their benefits.

You mean it's not the dark people who are the biggest drivers of deficits and debts, but old white people?

[boutons_deux]

There was an interesting article about the amount of money current seniors paid in, versus what they can expect to take out. Hint: it rhymes with "mess".

Don't ever let anyone over 60 say that they fully paid for their benefits.

the big problem is not under-contributions, or living longer, and greedy boomers,

but the vampire-squid health care sector overcharging, sucking wealth out of every income level.

When Medicare and Medicaid were created, look at where the health care cost per capita were, eg about 1970:

http://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=US+healthcare+costs+per+capita

That's for-profit vampire squid sucking, not health care. And US gets worse outcomes on many measures than non-profit "socialized" national health care in other industrial countries.

[FuzzyLumpkins]

A democracy cannot exist as a permanent form of government. It can only exist until the majority discovers it can vote itself largess out of the public treasury.

America is an irresponsible electorate.

[admiralsnackbar]

why does this n!gger bitch post on a spurs forum?

The same Spurs forum owned and administered by a black guy, you mean?

[boutons_deux]

Blaming lowered tax rates on boomers starting with 1%-useful-idiot St Ronnie in the 1980s is the wrong culprit, and its buying into 1%-financed lies, which reduce to "the problems and causes are everywhere else except with us 1%-ers".

It's not left vs right, young vs old, it's 1% vs 99%. The wealthy class vs everybody else, Economic Class Warfare.

[RandomGuy]

Was it this one?



http://www.economist.com/node/21563725

And man, I want to apologize because I know I pissed you off about the population thing a couple months back. Went about that in a bad way. Regardless hope things are well.

The apology was mine to make, as it was my misunderstanding of what you were saying that made me mad. Been meanign to PM, but heck this is as good a place as any to express that. I have also been meanidn to get back to it at some point, as it is a good conversation to have.

THe article title was "you didn't pay for it" and it was a blog at the economist, if memory serves. Times more than up, and I need to get going, but it can probably be found using a searach with htose keywords.

[RandomGuy]

the big problem is not under-contributions, or living longer, and greedy boomers,

but the vampire-squid health care sector overcharging, sucking wealth out of every income level.

When Medicare and Medicaid were created, look at where the health care cost per capita were, eg about 1970:

http://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=US+healthcare+costs+per+capita

That's for-profit vampire squid sucking, not health care. And US gets worse outcomes on many measures than non-profit "socialized" national health care in other industrial countries.

Again, you are probably more right about that than the free marketeers would like to admit to.

You should read this as well, about our own McAllen Texas:
http://www.newyorker.com/reporting/2009/06/01/090601fa_fact_gawande#


Really really good article. I have to interview an HMO CEO within the next month or so, and some of the concepts I will be asking her will be rather directly drawn from this article.

FWIW, if anybody has any questionst they might want someone to ask of an HMO CEO, post it here. If they are sort of appropriate to ask, I will fit them into the conversation.