Outrage! Heat favored over Spurs

[Galileo]

Despite the fact that the Spurs are 32-4 at home, and the Heat are only 25-12 on the road, the Heat is favored by 1 1/2 points!

WTF!!!

[Xevious]

K

[BatManu20]

Eh what did you expect

[jestersmash]

The favored team is not simply a function of home/away records. Shocker. :rolleyes

[DesignatedT]

Actually that's wrong.

.
The opening line is Spurs - 1 1/2. The Spurs are favored.

[thunderup]

Not surprised here partner. The Heat should be favored over everyone until dethroned.

[DesignatedT]

Miami Heat at San Antonio Spurs (-1.5, 198.5)

Spurs are favored. Learn how to read spreads brah.

[TheGoldStandard]

If the spurs win the headline will be "The Heat lose the game" and it'll be fatigue or some other issue... if the Heat win it will be "The Heat are Unstoppable" no mention of what the Spurs are capable of doing.

[DesignatedT]

If the spurs win the headline will be "The Heat lose the game" and it'll be fatigue or some other issue... if the Heat win it will be "The Heat are Unstoppable" no mention of what the Spurs are capable of doing.

Pretty much.

[Budkin]

Not surprised here partner. The Heat should be favored over everyone until dethroned.

This. No one is beating the Heat unless they have some major injuries.

[Galileo]

oops! Sorry, I over-reacted!

:lmao

[Galileo]

Hey, I just noticed this is BS. If the home court is worth 4 points, then the odds-makers are claiming Miami is a better team. Total BS, SA has a better point differential!!!

[Spur-Addict]

This game is being hyped way too much.

[CubanMustGo]

Stick to your conspiracy theories, OP. While you're equally idiotic there, at least it's what's expected of you.

[Poolboy5623]

Double fail!! The Spurs are favored....BUT, they shouldn't be!!

[DesignatedT]

Well HC is considered 3 pts and we don't have Manu so vegas is saying not having Manu is worth a 1.5 pt deduction.

[Mel_13]

Hey, I just noticed this is BS. If the home court is worth 4 points, then the odds-makers are claiming Miami is a better team. Total BS, SA has a better point differential!!!

No, Miami has the better point differential.

[phxspurfan]

I don't always change fonts, but when I do, I change to Comic Sans.

[Galileo]

No, Miami has the better point differential.

oops again, Miami must have just passed them up. But the Spurs have a better SRS at basketball reference!!! HA!

[Galileo]

Stick to your conspiracy theories, OP. While you're equally idiotic there, at least it's what's expected of you.


OK, how do explain the anti-small market plot? HUH!! Or the plot to steal the 2002 WCF??? OK, wise guy.

[Juanobili]

the Heat have won 28 of their last 29 games. I think they miiiight have a reason to favor the Heat.

[Juggity]

jesus, stop posting in comic sans scro. Eye-rape levels are increasing exponentially with each additional instance of it

[Galileo]

the Heat have won 28 of their last 29 games. I think they miiiight have a reason to favor the Heat.

BFD.

:lmao

[DapDaGenius]

Not surprised here partner. The Heat should be favored over everyone until dethroned.

Spoken like a true bandwagon.

[Cry Havoc]

Spurs are favored. Learn how to read spreads brah.

:lmao
:lmao
:lmao
:lmao
:lmao
:lmao

[LarryDavid]

Despite the fact that the Spurs are 32-4 at home, and the Heat are only 25-12 on the road, the Heat is favored by 1 1/2 points!

WTF!!!

OK

[racm]

lol comic sans

[skulls138]

Not surprised here partner. The Heat should be favored over everyone until dethroned.HAH!! Like the Spurs ever got that kind of respect, even when theyve won 4 titles and STILL have the best record in the league, DESPITE the Heats winning streak.

[ElNono]

smh

[chapnis]

HAH!! Like the Spurs ever got that kind of respect, even when theyve won 4 titles and STILL have the best record in the league, DESPITE the Heats winning streak.

the heat have a better record than the spurs

[Tbiggums47]

Not to mention...They play in the Weak Eastern Conference!

[milkyway21]

I like the idea of the Spurs entering the playoffs as the UNDERDOG than the target. :wakeup


Under the radar is better

[Poolboy5623]

The spurs, most likely wouldn't be an "underdog", until a finals match with the heat....^

[jimbo]

Hey, I just noticed this is BS. If the home court is worth 4 points, then the odds-makers are claiming Miami is a better team. Total BS, SA has a better point differential!!!

They just won 27 or whatever straight. That's probably not that much of a stretch to say.

Anyways the lines are done to encourage betting. SA favored this low probably makes more people want to bet on the Heat. I don't know what the public's betting % looks like though.

[TrainOfThought5]

without Ginobili the heat are a pretty safe bet, Tbqh imo fwiw

[Obstructed_View]

It's a conspiracy, I tells ya! :lol


The people who set the betting lines don't give a shit about one team or the other, they care about making money. The lines are set and adjusted based upon who the gamblers are picking to win.

[exstatic]

It's a conspiracy, I tells ya! :lol


The people who set the betting lines don't give a shit about one team or the other, they care about making money. The lines are set and adjusted based upon who the gamblers are picking to win.
This. Vegas wants equal money on both teams. They take their percentage and the losers pay the winners.

[Spurs and Mavs fan]

The Heat have a better record than the Spurs and have also won 29 out of their last 30 games. I don't see why it's unreasonable that they'd be slightly favored against San Antonio.

[mrjap2x]

The only thing that matters anyway is that spurs believe in themselves. Not to mention if the Heat was favored wouldn't it be better for spurs fan that gamble since the payoff will be bigger?

[Obstructed_View]

The Heat have a better record than the Spurs and have also won 29 out of their last 30 games. I don't see why it's unreasonable that they'd be slightly favored against San Antonio.

I agree with this as well. Nobody knows better than Spurs fans that the Spurs haven't been playing very well lately, even if they weren't without Manu in this game. The only gamblers that pick the Spurs are likely expecting Lebron or Wade to rest.

[dbreiden83080]

To be expected..

[Galileo]

Whoa Nellie!

They just dropped the odds, now the Spurs are only favored by 1 point!!! The fix is in!

[Budkin]

Ill be surprised if we get the win tonight considering how erratic our play has been. We managed to recover against the Clips and Nuggets but won't get away with that against the Heat.

[Galileo]

Ill be surprised if we get the win tonight considering how erratic our play has been. We managed to recover against the Clips and Nuggets but won't get away with that against the Heat.

you have a negative attitude. Negative nabobs of negatism. Look for the Spurs to win by 8 points.

[wut]

Heat are 2-22 all time in San Antonio.

[rascal]

It's a conspiracy, I tells ya! :lol


The people who set the betting lines don't give a shit about one team or the other, they care about making money. The lines are set and adjusted based upon who the gamblers are picking to win.

The betting line is geared to the betting public. The line tries to split the bets evenly so the books win no matter who wins.

[Galileo]

Heat are 2-22 all time in San Antonio.

'nuff said. That seals it.

[jimbo]

The betting line is geared to the betting public. The line tries to split the bets evenly so the books win no matter who wins.

Not all the time, this might be one of those times too. Occasionally you'll see the public heavily favoring one side (prob the heat today) so you'll have a lot of people fade it since usually when that happens it's a trap game and Vegas knows something we don't n

[jag]

Galileo is one of the worst posters I've ever seen.

[Obstructed_View]

The betting line is geared to the betting public. The line tries to split the bets evenly so the books win no matter who wins.

So you just re-worded what I said. Well done.

[rascal]

Not all the time, this might be one of those times too. Occasionally you'll see the public heavily favoring one side (prob the heat today) so you'll have a lot of people fade it since usually when that happens it's a trap game and Vegas knows something we don't n

Vegas knows something implies it is rigged, I don't buy that. They don't have a working agreement with the NBA to rig anything, over the long run they make profits if they make the line down the middle. Sometimes they lose on a game if too much money goes one way and they are on the short side but over the long haul they win by just adjusting a line that will get even betting.

[Darkwaters]

Despite the fact that the Spurs are 32-4 at home, and the Heat are only 25-12 on the road, the Heat is favored by 1 1/2 points!

WTF!!!

Eh, Heat are coming off of a 27 game winning streak and are the media darlings. The Spurs are lacking in the publicity department and haven't looked as explosive recently as they did earlier. It might not be totally fair but honestly I wouldn't have expected any less.

[rascal]

So you just re-worded what I said. Well done.

I said the same thing you said. Did not read through the entire thread, put me in jail.

[Obstructed_View]

I said the same thing you said. Did not read through the entire thread, put me in jail.

Just FYI: You quoted my post, then repeated it. Asking you to read what you quoted can't be too much to ask.

[Spurs and Mavs fan]

Heat are 2-22 all time in San Antonio.


Well, most of those defeats came when LeBron hadn't joined the Heat yet.

I would say that only the last 5-6 games are really relevant as far as history goes.

[jimbo]

Vegas knows something implies it is rigged, I don't buy that. They don't have a working agreement with the NBA to rig anything, over the long run they make profits if they make the line down the middle. Sometimes they lose on a game if too much money goes one way and they are on the short side but over the long haul they win by just adjusting a line that will get even betting.

It implies insider information, that's it. I don't think that's too impossible of a prediction given how much money is involved in this. They have the ability to adjust spreads to change how the public bets, but occasionally you'll the lines keep moving in the other way trying to get a heavily public backed team to get even more of the public's money.

Like here, the Heat have 62% of the market going for them

http://www.thespread.com/nba-basketball-public-betting-chart#.UVh4u6KsiSo

The line even moved from -1.5 to 1 back to 1.5. Why would they do that if they're interested in 50-50 betting for this game?

http://www.sportsinsights.com/spreadbasic.aspx?sport_id=2&v_nss=707&v_date=3/31/2013&gtype=4

[Galileo]

Galileo is one of the worst posters I've ever seen.

just jealousy.

:lmao

[KaiRMD1]

If the spurs win the headline will be "The Heat lose the game" and it'll be fatigue or some other issue... if the Heat win it will be "The Heat are Unstoppable" no mention of what the Spurs are capable of doing.

You forgot the usual spurs are too old to compete with the young heat

[rascal]

It implies insider information, that's it. I don't think that's too impossible of a prediction given how much money is involved in this. They have the ability to adjust spreads to change how the public bets, but occasionally you'll the lines keep moving in the other way trying to get a heavily public backed team to get even more of the public's money.

Like here, the Heat have 62% of the market going for them

http://www.thespread.com/nba-basketball-public-betting-chart#.UVh4u6KsiSo

Explain what insider information is.

The line even moved from -1.5 to 1 back to 1.5. Why would they do that if they're interested in 50-50 betting for this game?

http://www.sportsinsights.com/spreadbasic.aspx?sport_id=2&v_nss=707&v_date=3/31/2013>ype=4

Explain what insider information is.

[Galileo]

ha, ha, ha, ha, the Spurs now favored by 2 points!!

Put that in your pipe and smoke it.

:hat

[jimbo]

Explain what insider information is.

I wouldn't know, that's why it's insider information tbh.

But in seriousness, I'd imagine anything from information on the condition of the players themselves (maybe a trainer it leaking info), honestly I'm not that sure. All I know is that they have to have a reason for encouraging an unbalanced line and it's probably not that they think their models are more accurate than anyone elses.

[rascal]

The spurs have not covered the line in their last 4 games, are only 2-8 in their last 10 games overall against the line, only 1-5 in their last 6 home games. Had lucky close wins against the Clippers and Denver in their last two.

Now the Spurs go against the best team in the league. Miami has a chip on their shoulder losing their streak a couple of games ago and with something to prove. Blowout for Miami, Pop will pull the starters in the early 4th quarter. It is just one game on the schedule for Pop, no big deal with the loss.
Miami's defense will smother the spurs shooters and the lack of team athleticism will cave the spurs in.

105- 92 Miami

[rascal]

I wouldn't know, that's why it's insider information tbh.

But in seriousness, I'd imagine anything from information on the condition of the players themselves (maybe a trainer it leaking info), honestly I'm not that sure. All I know is that they have to have a reason for encouraging an unbalanced line and it's probably not that they think their models are more accurate than anyone elses.

Your vague answer is not convincing.

[Spurs and Mavs fan]

It is reasonable for either team to be slightly favored over the other. We're talking a 57-15 Heat team that's been on a 29-1 winning tear of late, traveling on the road to face a 55-17 Spurs team that is outstanding at winning games on its own home court. It's almost like you couldn't go wrong with picking either team.


For the Heat to be slightly favored is entirely reasonable.

[Galileo]

Holy mackerel, loe and behold, its rigged, Joey Crawford is reffin' the game!!

Joe Crawford reffing tonight's game
http://www.spurstalk.com/forums/showthread.php?t=211616&p=6447632#post6447632

[jimbo]

Your vague answer is not convincing.

Do you have a better explanation? Or any explanation then? I don't have to care about convincing you, the actual information already backs up what I said, the reasons aren't as important. (If I knew why, I'd be a millionaire)

[rascal]

Do you have a better explanation? Or any explanation then? I don't have to care about convincing you, the actual information already backs up what I said, the reasons aren't as important. (If I knew why, I'd be a millionaire)

I don't have to explain anything, you're the one with the conspiracy insider theory.

[jimbo]

I don't have to explain anything, you're the one with the conspiracy insider theory.

LOL

Then what you said is flat out wrong.


The betting line is geared to the betting public. The line tries to split the bets evenly so the books win no matter who wins.

Which we can clearly see isn't the case from the actual data I gave you.

[Embedded]

I feel Spurs will win by 8-13.

[Kidd K]

No, Miami has the better point differential.

True, but they get to pad it against: Wizards, Cavs, Pistons, Raptors, Magic, 76ers and Bobcats 4x a year. Then a few of their "playoff teams" are potential blowouts too. Hard not to have a good point differential if you're good and play in the east.

[Budkin]

you have a negative attitude. Negative nabobs of negatism. Look for the Spurs to win by 8 points.

That would be awesome.

[Galileo]

OK, WTF? Why does Miami control the home-court if there is a tie in the standings? More Stern crap I suppose.

[Galileo]

Ho, ho, ho, the line jumped to either 2 1/2 Spurs or 4 Spurs depending on where u r @!!!!

GO SPURS GO! THE SMART MONEY IS RIDING WITH THE DUNCAN/PARKER/SPLITTER/KAWAHI TRAIN!!!!

YAAA!!!

[jimbo]

Do you have a better explanation? Or any explanation then? I don't have to care about convincing you, the actual information already backs up what I said, the reasons aren't as important. (If I knew why, I'd be a millionaire)

and there we go, this is the conspiracy theoryish stuff but if the big oddsmakers had an inkling of a clue that Spo would rest Lebron/Wade there's your reason for some of them to keep the public pounding money on Miami even though the % was so lopsided

[rascal]

and there we go, this is the conspiracy theoryish stuff but if the big oddsmakers had an inkling of a clue that Spo would rest Lebron/Wade there's your reason for some of them to keep the public pounding money on Miami even though the % was so lopsided

Miami covered the line anyways.

[jimbo]

Miami covered the line anyways.

Yep, unfortunately for Vegas the game is still decided on the court.

edit:

They lost out big on this one, but made up a bunch of it with the Bulls/Pistons game. That one had 75% of the action on the Bulls on the spread -9 vs 59% on Miami.

[Obstructed_View]

So Spurs fans sad, but Vegas still made money. Go figure.

[Spurs and Mavs fan]

So............not so outrageous for Miami to be favored after all.