2012-2013 Magic Numbers

[Dex]

The playoffs are on the horizon, and it's time once again to start scrutinizing the standings to see what the Spurs need to do to earn home-court advantage throughout these playoffs. There are currently 6 teams left that the Spurs have not clinched HCA over yet with 8 games remaining.

As such, I present the Magic Numbers (combination of Spurs wins and opponent losses) for the 2012-2013 season:



Opponent
Magic Number
Tie Breaker


Miami Heat
12
Heat own tiebreaker (H2H Win-Loss record)


Oklahoma City Thunder
8
TBD, Spurs can claim with win on 4/4 or with a Conference Magic Number of 8


Denver Nuggets
4
TBD, Spurs can claim with win on 4/10 or with a Conference Magic Number of 8


Memphis Grizzlies
3
Spurs own tiebreaker (Division record)


L.A. Clippers
2
TBD, Spurs can claim with Conference Magic Number of 4


New York Knicks
2
Knicks own tiebreaker (H2H Win-Loss record)



Conclusions:

-The Miami Heat have pretty much clinched HCA, should both teams make the Finals. Even if the Spurs win their remaining 8 games, the Heat would have to drop 4 of their last 8...and there is no sign of that happening.

-The race for HCA against OKC is going to be a sprint to the finish. A win tomorrow (which would count for 2 magic numbers) would give the Spurs a small but important cushion. The Spurs ultimately control their own destiny here, but it would be much nicer if the team were healthier for this stretch run.

-One silver lining is that OKC still has games remaining against San Antonio, Indiana, New York, Golden State, and a scrapping Utah team, but the Spurs don't exactly have a leisurely finish to their schedule either (Thunder, Hawks, Nuggets, Lakers, and Warriors)

-HCA over Denver, L.A., Memphis, and New York is virtually sewn up, barring a complete Spurs collapse and the other team going bananas.

[Kuestmaster]

I have a feeling Pop will tank some of those final games and we'll end up being 2nd. Of course it'd be disappointing after all the season, but OKC it's not as scary as it was last year, I'd sign right now ending 2nd and beggining the postseason with everyone healthy.

[hater]

as I said in other thread:
Miami 1st seed 100%
Spurs 2nd seed 60%
OKC 2nd seed 40%
Utah 8th seed 75%
LAL 8th seed 25%

[Dex]

Update:




Opponent
Magic Number
Tie Breaker


Miami Heat
10
Heat own tiebreaker (H2H Win-Loss record)


Oklahoma City Thunder
5
TBD, Spurs can claim with a Conference Magic Number of 8


Denver Nuggets
2
TBD, Spurs can claim with a win on 4/10 or with a Conference Magic Number of 8


Memphis Grizzlies
0
N/A


L.A. Clippers
0
N/A


New York Knicks
0
N/A



Only three teams remaining.

[Dex]

And yes, the tie-breakers are pretty much moot at this point. There is no way for the Spurs to claim the remaining tiebreakers without closing the Magic Numbers, so they either get it, or they don't.