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View Full Version : Random thoughts before the biggest game of the regular season



timvp
04-04-2013, 08:03 PM
-Whoever wins tonight will probably get the No. 1 seed in the West. Considering that these two teams are relatively close when both are healthy, HCA could make the difference. So, yeah, with that in mind, tonight is huge. It could ultimately determine which team represents the West in the Finals.

-I've been traveling/working a lot so my posting has been somewhat limited lately but, man, this has been a frightening last couple months heading into the postseason. It seems like the Spurs literally suffer a new injury every game. We as Spurs fans just have to hope it's a minor injury and/or it's not a key player. I'm trying to enjoy this team -- it's just extra stressful watching a game right now due to the fragility of all the players :lol

-I can't figure out what to think of this team right now. On one hand, it feels a bit like 2011 in that the Spurs might have peaked early and are now limping into the playoffs while dealing a host of slumps and injuries. But, on the other hand, at times it appears as if the Spurs are coasting a bit and are capable of reaching another level in the playoffs. Tonight will be a great test to see if this team truly has another gear when needed.

-As maddening as Manu Ginobili played at times (before he went down, the number of low basketball IQ plays he was making per game was astounding), the Spurs REALLY miss him against a elite teams. Without Ginobili, the elite can just trap Tony Parker, sag in on Tim Duncan ... and then the Spurs will struggle to score unless their ball-movement becomes ungodly. Relying on ball-movement is dangerous because all it takes is a sticky player or two to ruin it. Teams like OKC and Miami just need their great players to be great -- which is much more dependable.

-Stephen Jackson missing tonight's game is unfortunate since the Thunder are the one team he actually is very much needed against. Ah well.

-Speaking of Jackson: Is he done or is he pulling an Horry? I'm hoping for the latter but, unfortunately, my guess would be the former. He's going to have to show something between now and the end of the postseason to even be worth bringing back for the minimum.

-Let's get to some good news. Duncan is showing glimpses of his vintage self after The Injury Scare. That is HUGE. If he can be something close to a 20-point, 12-rebound force in the playoffs, the Spurs are going to be difficult to beat (assuming, of course, that Parker is healthy and Ginobili makes it back from his third hamstring injury).

-Parker isn't all the way back yet but I'm not too worried. It looks like he's carrying a little extra weight that he picked up while rehabbing. He should have that burned off before too much longer. As long as he doesn't suffer any sort of setback, I don't know of a reason why he won't be great again by playoff time.

-Kawhi Leonard's rapid maturation is awesome to witness. Defensively, he's living up and surpassing the hype. I scoffed earlier in the season when people were calling him an elite perimeter defender. Right now, he's an elite perimeter defender. Probably top ten in the NBA. That in itself makes the Spurs much better equipped for the playoffs. And then there's his offense -- which has been improving at the same rate as his defense. During his rookie season and the beginning of this year, I wrote a lot about how it would be very helpful if he learned how to attack the rim within halfcourt sets. For his first season and a half in the NBA, we just didn't see it very often. But suddenly, he can do it. Leonard having a three-point stroke, an intermediate jumper and the capability of driving all the way to the hoop makes him a legit offensive option. If he can average 12-14 points in the playoffs and keep defending at his current level ... well, damn, he'd suddenly be in the discussion for a top 5 small forward in the NBA.

-Another huge Leonard-related development is that he has shown to be able to play the entire second half of games. That's big for three reasons: 1) It helps keep the bench unit from falling apart 2) It ends San Antonio's reliance on Jackson playing key minutes 3) Most of the stud perimeter players can and will play the entire second half in big games -- so Leonard being able to match that is important.

-The Spurs got a steal of a deal on Danny Green. I think he's been pretty damn awesome the last month or so. His defense has been a lot better. And as a three-point shooter, you can't argue against 44%. He's legitimately a great shooter who is becoming a better than average defender. I'm happy with him.

-Tiago Splitter is going to make ~$10 million per season starting next year. And hopefully it's the Spurs paying him.

-Back to the Thunder game, my hold-a-gun-to-my-head pick would be Oklahoma City to win. Even if the Spurs play better, weird things seem to happen in Oklahoma City. Let's leave it at that.

-A win tonight would be so great. It's going to be damn tough but it could be a season-defining type win. A loss wouldn't be the end of the world ... but big picture-wise, it'd be a blow to S.A.'s chances of making to the Finals.

-prayingdog.jpg

hater
04-04-2013, 08:08 PM
agree on green. dude has been ballin

disagree on spurs coasting. they are struggling and I have seen nothing zero nada that tells me they can take it up another level.

also disagree a win/loss mean nothing. win or lose, spurs will still be left licking their wounds for now

EricB
04-04-2013, 08:11 PM
I respectfully disagree on Jackson. He showed before Orlando signs of waking up especially against Memphis where he was very damn good.

With pop sticking with splitter and Duncan and kawhi's development, I feel very confident in the defense going forward.



also pop has to remind Kawhi to shoot the damn ball, stop being passive, his shot is good enough now to be relied on when Duncan and Parker are taken away.

TDfan2007
04-04-2013, 08:13 PM
No Manu, no Jackson, and a hobbled Tony...it'll be tough. I'm really curious to see this resurgent version of Timmy against OKC's front line. He was still getting back into a rhythm the last time these two teams played, but he's fine now. Tim's ability to produce will be huge, since OKC can seemingly disrupt our PnR game at any moment.

Robz4000
04-04-2013, 08:14 PM
Hate to say it, but the Spurs aren't coasting. They're banged up and the offense is struggling badly. However, I think with TP getting back into his pre-injury form the starting lineup will become elite on both ends once again, which will be huge for the playoffs. Spurs getting out of the second round will depend on Manu being healthy and able to impact the game positively. Jack has shown flashes of saving it for the playoffs, but if this ankle injury of his is serious then that will more than likely derail that chance.

Pop
04-04-2013, 08:14 PM
Green still can't drive or finish at the rim, that cost us the game vs the Rockets and about 4pts per games imo.

But his contract is nice indeed and could be moved easily.

Richie
04-04-2013, 08:15 PM
Of course this game is important for home court, but in no way is it season defining IMO. We haven't played at full strength vs the Thunder yet and have already beaten them twice. In fact I think the key to beating them in the playoffs is Manu vs Martin, and he's only played in one game.

Game 1: No Manu (W)
Game 2: No Manu or Leonard (L)
Game 3: No Parker (W)
Game 4: No Manu or Jackson (?)

Even if we come out at 2-2 after those injuries we have to be happy and hope we stay injury free in the playoffs. This team is all about health.

hater
04-04-2013, 08:16 PM
Green still can't drive or finish at the rim, that cost us the game vs the Rockets and about 4pts per games imo.


4pts/game? link?

even if, his blocks/steals and hustle more than makes up for that

Richie
04-04-2013, 08:18 PM
Also re: Jackson, his broken finger has affected him all season. No matter what happens I'd take him back for the minimum this summer based on previous years and the fact that he has been consistently unlucky with injuries.

Pop
04-04-2013, 08:19 PM
Also I for one am not worried one sec about Sjax.

Pop
04-04-2013, 08:20 PM
4pts/game? link?

even if, his blocks/steals and hustle more than makes up for that

De Colo blocks shots as well, shoots 40% from 3 AND make layups, for less money...

hater
04-04-2013, 08:23 PM
De Colo blocks shots as well, shoots 40% from 3 AND make layups, for less money...

nobody mentioned De Colo.

Green for a guy his size that can guard the coveted SG/SF positions is ballin and is a steal.

spurraider21
04-04-2013, 08:24 PM
:lol Pop trusts Jax but not Green
:lol tdmvpdpoy status

Pop
04-04-2013, 08:25 PM
nobody mentioned De Colo.

Green for a guy his size that can guard the coveted SG/SF positions is ballin and is a steal.

No he can't guard sf and is on PGs half the time lol. And I chose to mention De colo because I think he should play SG, that's all.

silverblackfan
04-04-2013, 08:25 PM
Great thoughts and I agree with most of them. Jack ain't done, he is just trying to get healthy and his shot reliable. He is not a great % shooter, but seems to hit the big ones. OTOH, I have seen him throw a few bricks lately, but I attribute that to uncalled fouls. Hell, Jax seems to think it was. :lol
It is nice to see Green and even Neal improving on defense and getting better.
Kawhi is progressing at an even better rate or is just so damn athletic that it seems that way. If he continues at this rate of improvement he could be the difference maker in this finals. Could the Spurs actually have the Big 4 they wanted when HWSNBN arrived?

SanDiegoSpursFan
04-04-2013, 08:26 PM
Yep, Green is one of the best shooters in the league. 60% TS is impressive.

EricB
04-04-2013, 08:26 PM
Pop err Fabs with the usual terrible takes.

mingus
04-04-2013, 08:28 PM
How good do you think Baynes can be?

Floyd Pacquiao
04-04-2013, 08:28 PM
another thing that goes unmentioned with green is his rebounding...he really skys for those boards when the bigs are fighting over it tbh

dbreiden83080
04-04-2013, 08:28 PM
This game is not the end of the world. If they lose it, they need to start resting up for the playoffs IMO.. Don't beat them up anymore for 1 extra HG in the WCF..

Darius McCrary
04-04-2013, 08:29 PM
Way to many injuries.

Poolboy5623
04-04-2013, 08:30 PM
The question is will green be ballin in the playoffs this year, or is it back to the bench? That'll determine how much of a "steal" he is, imo..

spurraider21
04-04-2013, 08:31 PM
We beat them without TP last time, though the situation has been reversed. Last time they were on the 2nd of a b2b after playing Boston and we were at home.
Though to be fair, TP and Kawhi are well rested and Timmy barely broke a sweat. Hopefully Green is still hot

Pop
04-04-2013, 08:32 PM
The question is will green be ballin in the playoffs this year, or is it back to the bench? That'll determine how much of a "steal" he is, imo..

Exactly even the fanbase is all about the regular season these days you'd think reading some posters.

pgardn
04-04-2013, 08:35 PM
Totally don't care about HCA.

No injuries.

Heal the ailing, can I get an amen hallelujah praise cheddar cheezus.

Uriel
04-04-2013, 08:44 PM
Why do people assume we're losing the 1 seed if we lose this game? The two teams split the season series at 2 - 2, and the next tiebreaker is conference record, which the Spurs are winning by a wide margin.

ffadicted
04-04-2013, 08:52 PM
-prayingdog.jpg

Chinook
04-04-2013, 08:55 PM
No he can't guard sf and is on PGs half the time lol. And I chose to mention De colo because I think he should play SG, that's all.

Green's actually been a lot better at defending small-forwards. According to 82games.com, Green holds opposing SFs to a lower PER (12.8) than Leonard has (13.8). Green's also been an above-average two-guard. His PER there is 17.4, which is higher than Leonard's PER at the three (17.2). De Colo's been fine at the two (15.3), but he hasn't shown enough to say he'd be a better starting two. I do think he should get a look as Green's back up over Neal, though.

TMTTRIO
04-04-2013, 09:03 PM
Manu should go ahead and call it quits so the Spurs can move on from now on and stop relying on him anymore.

spurs10
04-04-2013, 09:11 PM
Thanks timvp...great read. Whether we've peaked or not is the $64,000 question indeed. I think we have another gear... Agree with Uriel that losing tonight won't necessarily mean losing the #1 seed. Go Spurs Go!

SequSpur
04-04-2013, 09:17 PM
ok, how is the 75th game of the season important when you're in the 1 or 2 spot? 1 spot may get the lakers....really? Spurs should tank the next 5 games and rest some guys.....

#foolsgold.

FromWayDowntown
04-04-2013, 09:27 PM
The winner of this game wins the tiebreaker in any scenario. If the Spurs win, they take the season series; if the Thunder win and the teams end up tied at the end of the regular season, the Spurs win over Orlando ensures that they will have a worse conference record than OKC in that circumstance, giving OKC the tiebreaker. The Spurs will end with a better record against the East than OKC and, as a result, would have to have a worse record against the West in the event of a tie.

Spursfanfromafar
04-04-2013, 11:07 PM
Sadly this reminds me of 2011 all over again.. with Manu & TP replacing TD in the concern register. I hope Pop just shuts down Parker till the Lakers game so that he recovers fully and then fights his way to rhythm.

hater
04-04-2013, 11:08 PM
win or lose, spurs will still be left licking their wounds for now

ShoogarBear
04-04-2013, 11:22 PM
In the playoffs, I still have my doubts about Green and Diaw (and maybe even having them about Splitter again after tonight).

Green still has a lot to prove. He's almost a Bruce Bowen-level finisher at the rim, and is the guy most likely to throw a panic pass or short-arm a jumper in the clutch if he has to do anything except spot up for a three.

I can't figure out why Parker can't teach Diaw his favorite English word: aggressive.

Maybe Jackson has or hasn't lost it, but in a tight series I still feel better when he's out there than Green or Diaw.

Strategic
04-04-2013, 11:29 PM
-Tiago Splitter is going to make ~$10 million per season starting next year. And hopefully it's the Spurs paying him.


-prayingdog.jpgYou think they can give Splitter 10 mil. when Leonard will probably need 12 to 14 on his next contract?

TD 21
04-05-2013, 05:17 PM
-I can't figure out what to think of this team right now. On one hand, it feels a bit like 2011 in that the Spurs might have peaked early and are now limping into the playoffs while dealing a host of slumps and injuries. But, on the other hand, at times it appears as if the Spurs are coasting a bit and are capable of reaching another level in the playoffs. Tonight will be a great test to see if this team truly has another gear when needed.

Actually, I don't think we ever got to see this team's peak and we probably never will again, since it's clear they can't stay upright for an entire season, particularly towards the latter stages (last season's shorter schedule notwithstanding). It's unfortunate, because there's a number of reasons to think this team was better than last season's and that they'd have given the Heat, at minimum, a serious challenge.

Ice009
04-05-2013, 07:42 PM
You think they can give Splitter 10 mil. when Leonard will probably need 12 to 14 on his next contract?

After last night's game, no way do I give Splitter a cent more than Tim Duncan. He should get less than Tim, not equal or more.

TheGoldStandard
04-05-2013, 07:46 PM
the worth of players will be determined in the playoffs.