Championship teams that enter the playoffs stumbling

[sananspursfan21]

Does anyone recall or can look up teams that have one championships or Atleast went far in the playoffs that just kinda bellyflopped and landed in the proverbial playoff pool? I cant remember any specifically myself.

Dont get me wrong I'm not expecting some kind of miracle but crazy or not I still have a little faith. But it would give a little glimmer of hope to know that someone else was able to overcome a late season stumble. Anybody?

[MVPCues]

Does anyone recall or can look up teams that have one championships or Atleast went far in the playoffs that just kinda bellyflopped and landed in the proverbial playoff pool? I cant remember any specifically myself.

Dont get me wrong I'm not expecting some kind of miracle but crazy or not I still have a little faith. But it would give a little glimmer of hope to know that someone else was able to overcome a late season stumble. Anybody?

Rockets with their 2nd win of the back to back come to mind. I can't remember how well they were playing just before the playoffs, but I believe they were something like the 5th seed. It seems like nobody expected them to repeat, but I can't remember for sure.

[coachmac87]

Last year Miami Heat..

[bklynspursfan]

Spurs in 2005 went 6-5 in their last 11 games. OKC went 8-7 last year in April.

[sananspursfan21]

Last year Miami Heat..
Were they playing this poorly though?

[Spur|n|Austin]

Spurs in 2005 went 6-5 in their last 11 games. OKC went 8-7 last year in April.

The end of this season seems different than the end to the 2005 season. Can't put my finger on it; possibly the fact that our big 3 are 8 years older.

[bklynspursfan]

The end of this season seems different than the end to the 2005 season. Can't put my finger on it; possibly the fact that our big 3 are 8 years older.

Definitely different. I think that's the year Duncan got hurt towards the end of the season though. So injuries are similar.

[MolaMola790]

Spurs aren't winning anything this year so..

[coachmac87]

They were banged up. And had tough series..I'm sure there was some doubt in their fan base

[Russ]

2001 Lakers -- classic case.

The defending champs stumbled into the playoffs with Shaq and Kobe in open warfare and the losses piling up. Laker fans predicted a first round meltdown.

The Lakers then embarked upon the most dominant playoff performance in history, losing one game in the entire four series (including a humilating sweep of the #1 seed Spurs in the WCF).

[sananspursfan21]

Spurs aren't winning anything this year so..

Gee thanks newbie, ya missed te point of the post completely

[MolaMola790]

you want to know of teams that have struggled and won titles. which is understandable, however even if i give 10,000 examples of this it doesn't matter because the Spurs are playing so mediocre at the moment.

[sananspursfan21]

you want to know of teams that have struggled and won titles. which is understandable, however even if i give 10,000 examples of this it doesn't matter because the Spurs are playing so mediocre at the moment.

First part of your post is eeeexactly what I'm looking for :)

[cd98]

I'm not sure exactly why the Spurs have absolutely sucked for the last month. I'm sure injuries are a big part. But the ball movement has been horrible, the shot selection questionable, and the game management in close games has been pitiful.

In some senses, the playoffs are radically different than the regular season. You have more physical, grind it out games. You have more coaching adjustments and you focus on just one team instead of many. But injuries and rustiness are magnified, and my fear is that injuries and long layoffs for injured players will kill our playoff chances.

[jestersmash]

IIRC the lowest Hollinger ranking of an NBA champion in the essentially in the last decade or so is rank 5, corresponding to the '11 Mavericks team.

We're currently ranked 6th on Hollinger.

Of course, Hollinger's ranking only goes back so far. It's still relatively new.

A similar rating from basketball reference, called the simple rating system, essentially looks at point differential but weighs the entire season evenly. It is simply point differential for all intents and purposes but basketball-refernece catalogs SRS scores in an easy-to-look-up way which is why I like it. The SRS champion went on to be the NBA champion 54% of the time (the '07 championship Spurs team was the SRS champion that year).

For '10-'11 (Memphis meltdown), our SRS rank = 4.

For '11-'12, our SRS = 2

For '12-'13, our SRS = 3


For our championship years:
07: SRS rank = 1
05: SRS rank = 1
03: SRS rank = 3
99: SRS rank = 1

[Homeland Security]

A similar rating from basketball reference, called the simple rating system, essentially looks at point differential but weighs the entire season evenly. It is simply point differential for all intents and purposes but basketball-refernece catalogs SRS scores in an easy-to-look-up way which is why I like it. The SRS champion went on to be the NBA champion 54% of the time (the '07 championship Spurs team was the SRS champion that year).

Why don't any of these stat geeks use some kind of adjusted cumulative distribution function to predict team performance? Variance matters.

[siraulo23]

it doeant matter when our best player is injured and the guy who runs the second unit is also hurt

If the spurs were healthy and struggling I wouldn't worry so much because I know they'll get together come playoff time but that's not the case

[Fabbs]

OP by coachmac87

Last year Miami Heat..


Were they playing this poorly though?
naw. 6-4 over the last 10 but that with with LeBron sittin out 3 and Wade a couple of the same games. Heat rattled off 5 straight in between with the full crew playing.

[TheGoldStandard]

I don't know if this team is capable now of regrouping, I know that Tim has played out of his mind but Parker isn't right and only shows signs against the crappiest of crap teams. Heard on the radio that Manu could play as soon as Wednesday to get some kind of groove going into the playoffs. This team needs to come together now, can't wait any longer and they need to play through whatever mental junk they're going through.

[jestersmash]

Why don't any of these stat geeks use some kind of adjusted cumulative distribution function to predict team performance? Variance matters.

It probably looks roughly like e^x, except flattened out and biased more towards the higher ranked SRS teams. The data is on basketball reference if you're interested. I seriously doubt it would add much (if any) predictive value given how little the variance is (judging from the "eye test" from having looked at these rankings on B-R or espn).

[LarryDavid]

Does anyone recall or can look up teams that have one championships or Atleast went far in the playoffs that just kinda bellyflopped and landed in the proverbial playoff pool?

..... http://lmgtfy.com/?q=basketball-reference.com

:toast

[crc21209]

Last year's Heat, 2001 Lakers, 95 Rockets are some good examples...

[phxspurfan]

lol @ thread

[spurraider21]

the celtics in 2010 didn't have a great season and lost 7 of their last 10 but pushed the lakers to 7 in the finals

[therealtruth]

Spurs waiting for the playoffs to flip the switch.

[pgardn]

What about Dallas?

seems they were totally dismissed.

Need to look up the last part of their reg season.

4 straight losses followed by 4 straight wins in last 8 games.

[BillMc]

Spurs waiting for the playoffs to flip the switch.

Amen

[baseline bum]

2001 Lakers -- classic case.

The defending champs stumbled into the playoffs with Shaq and Kobe in open warfare and the losses piling up. Laker fans predicted a first round meltdown.

The Lakers then embarked upon the most dominant playoff performance in history, losing one game in the entire four series (including a humilating sweep of the #1 seed Spurs in the WCF).

I think you're mistaken, Russ. The 2001 Lakers entered the playoffs on an 8-game win streak thanks to Fisher's return from injury. They looked very beatable before that though. I distinctly remember that because I was clowning all my Laker fan friends who said that Fisher was the difference and that they'd be good again when he came back.

[therealtruth]

I think you're mistaken, Russ. The 2001 Lakers entered the playoffs on an 8-game win streak thanks to Fisher's return from injury. They looked very beatable before that though. I distinctly remember that because I was clowning all my Laker fan friends who said that Fisher was the difference and that they'd be good again when he came back.

I think he went some ridiculous 15/20 against us in the playoffs.

[Venti Quattro]

2009/10 Lakers

[Russ]

I think you're mistaken, Russ. The 2001 Lakers entered the playoffs on an 8-game win streak thanks to Fisher's return from injury. They looked very beatable before that though. I distinctly remember that because I was clowning all my Laker fan friends who said that Fisher was the difference and that they'd be good again when he came back.

Right you are (I'm getting senile).

[DesignatedT]

dan mccarney ‏@danmccarneysaen 12s
Spurs went 10-10 over their last 20. Only 1994-95 Rockets, at 9-11, had a worse record among championship teams since the merger.
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[024]

I think instead you should ask: which team with the same core won a championship 6 years after winning their last one?

[TheyCallMePro]

That was an absolute pathetic performance. Championship teams don't get blown at home the last game of the regular season. This was supposed to be a playoff-like intensity game. If that's the best the Spurs can do, then not only will they lose in the playoffs, they'll be crushed. The Lakers have been playing 10x better than the Spurs the past month. And that's going to be our opponent. This team is making me sick. Pop should LIGHT THEM UP in practice the next few days.

[therealtruth]

That was an absolute pathetic performance. Championship teams don't get blown at home the last game of the regular season. This was supposed to be a playoff-like intensity game. If that's the best the Spurs can do, then not only will they lose in the playoffs, they'll be crushed. The Lakers have been playing 10x better than the Spurs the past month. And that's going to be our opponent. This team is making me sick. Pop should LIGHT THEM UP in practice the next few days.

I don't think the Spurs need to be concerned about winning the championship. They need to worry about escaping round 1. I doubt they sweep this year.