FTA analysis for GSW, LAL, HOU and UTA

[ambchang]

So folks, I have actually got the time to do a proper analysis of FTA for HOU, GSW, UTA and LAL throughout the entire season, and really, the results are funnier than Russell Peters and Chris Rock put together.

I thought I will put in all this work, and have to report something that would smash all conspiracies, but, the league is really trying to be transparent in moving towards a WWE format.

Let’s first look at the raw numbers, the following summarizes the FTA difference between a team and its opponents for the entire season:
HOU : +3.9
GSW: -2.6
UTA: -0.9
LAL: +8.5

The numbers are not THAT surprising for the teams.
We all know GSW doesn’t have the playing style to get lots of FTAs;
HOU plays with a helter skelter style that nets them quite a few FTs, on top, they don’t play a lot of defense so its opposition doesn’t really get that many FTAs;
UTA was a little bit of a surprise, as they are mostly inside dominated, but on the other hand, they foul a lot; and
LAL has Dwight, who gets hacked a lot, and they are LAL, so they naturally gets more FTA.

These numbers, in and of itself, doesn’t really say too much. The disparity could be due to different playing styles, different players, and such. The opposition remains pretty much the same, as they are all WC teams.

What is interesting though, and how the FTA evolves for each team over the season.

January 25th, 2013 is a turning point for the LAL. They went from a W/L of -7 games all the way to +1 on March 8, 2013. That’s making up a 8 game deficit in 20 games, which is phenomenal for an also ran team at the first half of the season. Not to mention, it pushed them to 9th seed, and within a game of UTA for the 8th seed.

LAL has always been shooting more FTAs than the opposition, in fact, they were averaging +7.0 FTAs from the beginning of the season to Jan 25, but something changed. During that 17 critical games, LAL outshot their opponents +8.2 FTA a game, on average. But unfortunately, that is STILL not enough for the LAL to get the 8th seed, what happened since then is truly amazing, enough to make OKC fans blush. The LAL outshot their opponents by TWELVE FTAs a game since March 8 until the end of the season, that is 19 straight games where they out did themselves in FTA difference by 4 FTA a game!

Well, what about the other teams? Let’s look at HOU. Up till Jan 25th, the Rockets were outshooting their opponents by 5 FTA a game. Then something changed. That something is called them being in the way of LAL making the playoffs, so over the next 16 games, HOU mysteriously shot 0.5 FTA LESS than their opponents. But afterwards, once the Rockets made the 7th seed, they went back to outshooting their opponents by 6.5 FTA a game for 20 straight games. The final two games of the season, once LAL clinched the 8th seed the OKC got the 1st seed, the HOU shot -5 FTA a game for two games (breaking even in one game, and being outshot by, who else, LAL by 10 FTA in the other) to drop to 8th seed.

GSW didn’t get affected much, as it was steadily a few seedings above the 8th seed throughout the season, but that doesn’t stop them from shooting 34 less FTS vs. LAL in game #79 of the season. Just consider them collateral damage.

Finally, the most interesting team, UTA, the team that was battling LAL for the 8th seed for most part of the 2nd half of the season. All the way up till Jan 25, 2013, UTA was actually outshooting their opponents by an average of 0.4 FTA a game. They were enjoying the ride, because they were still the 7th seed, and for the next 17 games, all the way to March 4, the Jazz would STILL outshot their opponents by 1.5 PPG, even though they weren’t overly successful in that stretch, and dropped from 7th to 8th seed. Then the carnage begins. Over the next 4 games, the Jazz were outshot by their opponents by 8.5 FTA a game, losing 3 of 4 games and dropping them to 9th seed. But dropping them to 9th seed is not enough, they have to stay there. For the next 16 games (games #65 to #80), UTA was outshot by their opponents by 5.7 FTA a game to “secure” the 9th seed. Once they have no chance of making 8th seed, the Jazz, miraculously, shot 5 and 6 more FTAs a game against the opposition to close the season.

Coincidence? It’s for you to decide. We are not talking about 1 or 2 games, we are talking about almost 40 games for 4 different teams. If it’s a coincidence, the chance of this happening randomly is, I must say, quite slim.

EDIT: Added FTA/FGA analysis for opponents for the same 4 teams under the same periods. See post #33 (http://www.spurstalk.com/forums/showthread.php?t=212673&page=2&p=6502732&viewfull=1#post6502732)

Also added link to google docs. DOCUMENT (https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/...mc&usp=sharing)

[Thread]

So folks, I have actually got the time to do a proper analysis of FTA for HOU, GSW, UTA and LAL throughout the entire season, and really, the results are funnier than Russell Peters and Chris Rock put together.

I thought I will put in all this work, and have to report something that would smash all conspiracies, but, the league is really trying to be transparent in moving towards a WWE format.

Let’s first look at the raw numbers, the following summarizes the FTA difference between a team and its opponents for the entire season:
HOU : +3.9
GSW: -2.6
UTA: -0.9
LAL: +8.5

The numbers are not THAT surprising for the teams.
We all know GSW doesn’t have the playing style to get lots of FTAs;
HOU plays with a helter skelter style that nets them quite a few FTs, on top, they don’t play a lot of defense so its opposition doesn’t really get that many FTAs;
UTA was a little bit of a surprise, as they are mostly inside dominated, but on the other hand, they foul a lot; and
LAL has Dwight, who gets hacked a lot, and they are LAL, so they naturally gets more FTA.

These numbers, in and of itself, doesn’t really say too much. The disparity could be due to different playing styles, different players, and such. The opposition remains pretty much the same, as they are all WC teams.

What is interesting though, and how the FTA evolves for each team over the season.

January 25th, 2013 is a turning point for the LAL. They went from a W/L of -7 games all the way to +1 on March 8, 2013. That’s making up a 8 game deficit in 20 games, which is phenomenal for an also ran team at the first half of the season. Not to mention, it pushed them to 9th seed, and within a game of UTA for the 8th seed.

LAL has always been shooting more FTAs than the opposition, in fact, they were averaging +7.0 FTAs from the beginning of the season to Jan 25, but something changed. During that 17 critical games, LAL outshot their opponents +8.2 FTA a game, on average. But unfortunately, that is STILL not enough for the LAL to get the 8th seed, what happened since then is truly amazing, enough to make OKC fans blush. The LAL outshot their opponents by TWELVE FTAs a game since March 8 until the end of the season, that is 19 straight games where they out did themselves in FTA difference by 4 FTA a game!

Well, what about the other teams? Let’s look at HOU. Up till Jan 25th, the Rockets were outshooting their opponents by 5 FTA a game. Then something changed. That something is called them being in the way of LAL making the playoffs, so over the next 16 games, HOU mysteriously shot 0.5 FTA LESS than their opponents. But afterwards, once the Rockets made the 7th seed, they went back to outshooting their opponents by 6.5 FTA a game for 20 straight games. The final two games of the season, once LAL clinched the 8th seed the OKC got the 1st seed, the HOU shot -5 FTA a game for two games (breaking even in one game, and being outshot by, who else, LAL by 10 FTA in the other) to drop to 8th seed.

GSW didn’t get affected much, as it was steadily a few seedings above the 8th seed throughout the season, but that doesn’t stop them from shooting 34 less FTS vs. LAL in game #79 of the season. Just consider them collateral damage.

Finally, the most interesting team, UTA, the team that was battling LAL for the 8th seed for most part of the 2nd half of the season. All the way up till Jan 25, 2013, UTA was actually outshooting their opponents by an average of 0.4 FTA a game. They were enjoying the ride, because they were still the 7th seed, and for the next 17 games, all the way to March 4, the Jazz would STILL outshot their opponents by 1.5 PPG, even though they weren’t overly successful in that stretch, and dropped from 7th to 8th seed. Then the carnage begins. Over the next 4 games, the Jazz were outshot by their opponents by 8.5 FTA a game, losing 3 of 4 games and dropping them to 9th seed. But dropping them to 9th seed is not enough, they have to stay there. For the next 16 games (games #65 to #80), UTA was outshot by their opponents by 5.7 FTA a game to “secure” the 9th seed. Once they have no chance of making 8th seed, the Jazz, miraculously, shot 5 and 6 more FTAs a game against the opposition to close the season.

Coincidence? It’s for you to decide. We are not talking about 1 or 2 games, we are talking about almost 40 games for 4 different teams. If it’s a coincidence, the chance of this happening randomly is, I must say, quite slim.

Boiled down:::

Kobe: 5

the tired old shit bag Duncan: 4

[bluebellmaniac]

A great analysis. Kudos!

But to make one really think that this is a purposeful act, there would need to be an analysis of who reffed the games, how many of the FT calls were called by each ref, etc. Otherwise we are left to believe that the refs as a whole are in on this. If that is the case, how would Stern effect that without it becoming public? There are nuanced ways of doing so, I'm not being naive, but it would be good to state publicly how Stern can influence the refs to do so.

Any way of posting some of your data for confirmation? There will be doubters...

[ambchang]

I have a spreadsheet, but I don't know how to post this information up.

I just got all the data from basketball-reference.com, under game logs, takes about 30 minutes to do the analysis. Not that difficult.

As for individual refs vs. a league-wide conspiracy, let's just say that single refs cannot influence 40 games played by 4 different teams that much, the league, as a whole though, can influence by emphasizing certain plays being reffed tighter or looser, it's not really that difficult to do.

I find it hilarious how UTA's FTA difference changed so dramatically over the course of the season.

[Katherine Robinson]

Only pussies & assholes do research projects on officiating.

[whitemamba]

i actually would like to see the spreadsheet tbh.

[Thread]

Only pussies & assholes

I'm a trend setter.

I set trends.

[Thread]

i actually would like to see the spreadsheet tbh.

Bend over, Katie-girl. I'll spread the fuckin' sheets.

[Katherine Robinson]

I'm a trend setter.

I set trends.

It is the Robinson trend, I have all rights.

[Katherine Robinson]

Bend over, Katie-girl. I'll spread the fuckin' sheets.

Promises, promises. Your little weasel hasn't worked since Kobe went up 5 on the shit bag's 4.

[Thread]

It is the Robinson trend, I have all rights.

Please.

[Katherine Robinson]

Please.

You have nary room, I am a Robinson as well - I own half of what you say.

[Thread]

nary room

I'm a trend setter.

I set trends.

[Katherine Robinson]

I'm a trend setter.

I set trends.

As am I, being legally bound to you and all that you own.

[Captivus]

I'm a trend setter.

I set trends.
http://img191.imageshack.us/img191/4189/threadc.jpg (http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/191/threadc.jpg/)

[pad300]

I have a spreadsheet, but I don't know how to post this information up.

I just got all the data from basketball-reference.com, under game logs, takes about 30 minutes to do the analysis. Not that difficult.

As for individual refs vs. a league-wide conspiracy, let's just say that single refs cannot influence 40 games played by 4 different teams that much, the league, as a whole though, can influence by emphasizing certain plays being reffed tighter or looser, it's not really that difficult to do.

I find it hilarious how UTA's FTA difference changed so dramatically over the course of the season.

If you want to share it, you could make it a google docs spreadsheet - you can set it the public can read it, but only you can edit it...

https://accounts.google.com/ServiceLogin?service=writely&passive=1209600&continue=http://docs.google.com/%23&followup=http://docs.google.com/&ltmpl=homepage

You will need to create a google account if you don't already have one to make a document.

[ambchang]

I think I got the sharing right. All I did was literally cut and paste all the info onto the google drive

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AiKtUm8BfzhzdEhBMkE1OWM0YVd6MVZXZm5pMVRDY mc&usp=sharing

The format is horrible, for I never had the intention of really sharing this, but you should be able to figure it out.

Someone with more time can actually look at the change in FTA/FGA as the season progress as well. I think that would be another LOL matter.

[Brazil]

Thanks amb for sharing the doc

[snickles]

nice work! thanks for taking the time to do all that.

mind if i repost this in another forum? will give credit where credit is due, of course.

[ambchang]

Go nuts. The effort was minimal. Do note that the seeding is only relative to each other, but not to the rest of the conference. It's just a way for me understand where they stand relative to each other.

[ambchang]

Btw, could you post the link here once you have posted in another forum? Interested in the responses. Thanks.

[AaronY]

Thx for the cliff notes Cully..no way in hell I was reading that long ass OP

[Latarian Milton]

the league was intentionally screwing either chinkston or utah to make a playoff spot available for the lakers, too bad mavs didn't get such special care :cry. would be great if both utah and rockets were dropped with mavs & lakers in tbh

[noob cake]

We got rocked 4 times in one week while we were the 8th seed. I even made a thread about it.

Then when we got to 7th seed, Utah magically became the target. When Lakers had a chance at 7th again, we reverted to getting screwed.

Can't prove this shit. Oh well.

[HI-FI]

You have nary room, I am a Robinson as well - I own half of what you say.

:lmao

[InRareForm]

http://www.blazersedge.com/2013/4/19/4245072/simmons-blazersedge-did-great-post-on-lakers-foul-shot-disparity

[ambchang]

noob cake, I actually started this analysis because you gave me an idea. Sorry to credit you, but I forgot where I read something like this until you mentioned it.

[Thread]

noob cake, I actually started this analysis because you gave me an idea. Sorry to credit you, but I forgot where I read something like this until you mentioned it.

...hhhhhhhhhhhhhhhaaaaaaaaaarumpf.

[FkLA]

ambchang is a truth bomb dropper tbh. :tu

[Thread]

^& one of the biggest pussies & assholes around there.

[bluebellmaniac]

The other part is to analyze the rest of the teams in the league over comparable time spans and see if there are other such disparities. If not then it strengthens the indictment of the league, however if there are numerous other such changes in FT attempts, then it could be shrugged off by the league.

[snickles]

Btw, could you post the link here once you have posted in another forum? Interested in the responses. Thanks.

its a private yahoo fantasy basketball forum. i'll copy and paste any relevant replies. most people there seem to think theres no weirdness going on with the free throws. i'm really curious to see what they all have to say. (mostly knicks, bulls, raptors, and sonics [yes sonics] fans in there, so noone really has a reason to complain either way)

[ambchang]

Alright folks, so here is the second round of the analysis, which just contains more hilarity.

I took the FTA and divide them by the FGA of every game of the opponents, then compared it against the season average of that team.

For example, let’s say HOU played the DAL March 3, 2012. The Mavs shot 40 FTA that game from 80 FTA, that is a FTA/FGA ratio of 40/80 = 0.5 This compared to 1669 FTA out of 6892 FGA, or 0.242FTA/FGA for the Mavs for the season, and we can see that the Mavs, for that game, shot 106% more FTAs than would have been expected from them based on their season average.

So here come the numbers:

As a league, teams shoot 0.271 FTA/FGA. Some teams shoot more, some less, depending on playing style and such.

For HOU, their opponents, on average, shoots 0.252 FTA/FGA for the season, which means that they foul a little less than the rest of the league, and if you are playing them, you can expect to shoot 6.6% LESS FTA than you would normally get. Well, unless, you play them while they were the 8th seed and in the way of LAL making the playoffs. For the first 44 games of the season, HOU opponents would actually expect to shoot 11% LESS FTAs than they normally do, but then, coincidentally, while LAL was making the run (see 1st post of thread), from Jan 25 to Mar 1, HOU opponents suddenly would find themselves at the FT line 3% more likely then they normally would expect. But then when HOU is the 7th seed, and LAL was NOT the 8th seed, HOU opponents would shoot 5.5% LESS FTA than normal. But the last two games of the season when LAL had a chance to overtake HOU as the 7th seed, HOU opponents, all of a sudden, would shoot 6.9% MORE FTA than normal. What the heck is going on here?

And it’s not like HOU was playing totally different teams in that glorious stretch when they were the 8th seed. In fact, when they played DEN Jan 30th, DEN shot 37% more FTA than they would normally expect. This is only 7 days after HOU played DEN in another game, at which DEN shot 5% LESS FTA than normal. Did the playing styles of DEN and HOU change THAT much in a week? I doubt it.

Moving on to GSW, their opponent FTA/FGA ratio stayed pretty much constant throughout, unless they were playing against LAL in game #80 of the season, when LAL HAD to win to make the playoffs, the LAL shot an astounding 50 FTA on 66 FGA, that is a FTA/FGA ratio of 0.76, or 120% MORE FTAs than LAL would expect (and LAL already has a ridiculously high FTA/FGA as compared to the rest of the league, we will get to that later).

Now let’s look at UTA, the team most screwed in this entire situation … For the season, their opponents shot 10.21% more FTAs than they would expect playing against UTA. This is not surprising, as they are a physical, team that reaches and fouls quite constantly. But then when you break it down, the numbers look, to say the least, a little curious.

UTA’s opponents would shoot 7% more FTA than expected for the first 43 games of the season, then 8 % from games 44 to 59, and then steadily increase to 9.7% for games 60 to 64. Not much to say, is there. Then the fun begins. From games 65 to 80, AKA the period when the Jazz are fighting against LAL for the 8th seed, UTA’s opponents shot 20.4% MORE FTAs than would be expected based on their FGA. Then once the Jazz had the 9th seed locked up, their opponents suddenly find that going to the FTA a lot tougher, as they shot 16% less than they would expect compared to the rest of the season. Real head-scratcher there.

Finally, the league’s golden-and-purple boys. For the season, when you play the LAL, don’t expect to go the FT line that much. Part of it could be because they don’t play much defense under the Mike D’antoni system. Part of it is just because they are the Lakers. But is there a difference throughout the season? You can bet your kid’s entire college fund on that! For the first 43 games of the season, LAL opponents shot 12% less FTA than would be expected. The league has expected this, so no big deal. Then for the next 20 games (games 44 to 63) when the LAL made a push for the playoffs, their opponents shot 22% LESS FTAs than normal. But that’s not enough, because LAL is still not in the playoffs, so the league ratchet up the calls (or is that ratchet down?). If you play LAL while they were the 9th seed trying to go for the 8th, you would expect to shoot 28% LESS FTAs than normal, that’s just part of doing business.

So here you have it, just more evidence of what we already know all along, the league loves the Lakers.

[Thread]

^Only pussies & assholes blame the officiating.

[LkrFan]

Bend over, Katie-girl. I'll spread the fuckin' sheets.

:rollin :lmao :rollin

[AlexJones]

^& one of the biggest pussies & assholes around there.

:lmao