86% Chance Spurs vs Golden State in Round 2

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When the team up 3-1 plays game 5 on the road, 86% of the time that team wins the series. If they play game 5 at home, it jumps to 90%. Of course Denver would have to win 3 consecutive games, 2 of which are home games for Golden State.

I'm glad, I would rather run with Golden State than bang with Denver. Golden State is younger and less experienced. They can shoot lights out, but we're no slouch ourselves.

[elec99]

Agreed, while I respect GSW's game I don't fear them at all. They're a young team and I expect pop to run circles around mark jackson.

[ironman2886]

Spurs will exploit the warriors weakness(frontcourt/experience) much more than what the warriors can to us. Curry is good, but Parker will get his and more because of experience. Thompson reminds me of Kevin Martin( catch and shoot player). Green will guard him. Jarret Jack is the player that has killed us in the past, but with Manu healthy he shouldn't be as successful. Add David Lee is out and this isn't the Milwaukee bucks Bogut, Spurs should win in 5 or 6. Not being cocky. Spurs are just the better team, have the better coach, and Parker and Manu are healthy.

[Dex]

Agreed...the prospect of playing Denver scares me. They have enough athleticism in the front-court to cover our bigs, and they are loaded with talent. Also should not discount their home court advantage.

Golden State is going to have to live and die by the jumper. While they are showing the ability to do so against Denver, I think they will struggle to maintain that, especially if the Spurs can be crisp with their rotations. They also don't have the size to contend with Duncan/Splitter/Baynes, especially now that their 1B option (David Lee) is out.

I'm really hoping to see the DENvGSW series go 6 or 7 games though, so we can buy a little more practice time and time for Splitter and Diaw to get back on their feet.

[Budkin]

Agreed, while I respect GSW's game I don't fear them at all. They're a young team and I expect pop to run circles around mark jackson.

That's what I thought about OKC before Pop was outcoached by Scott Brooks.

[spurraider21]

Now THIS is a series where Green stepping up would be instrumental. Especially in Golden State. Lets say Curry does his thing, buries a long 3, and the crowd goes wild, on the other end Green nails a 3 to silence the crowd. Don't let the momentum build against these guys. Would also be nice if Kawhi starts hitting his long ball with the consistency we saw earlier in the year, but I won't fret since he makes a big impact in plenty of other areas

[J.T.]

Spurs have beaten every team in the Western Conference in the postseason during the Tim Duncan Era except for two teams: Golden State and Houston. Time to make it one.

[bklynspursfan]

Agreed...the prospect of playing Denver scares me. They have enough athleticism in the front-court to cover our bigs, and they are loaded with talent. Also should not discount their home court advantage.

Golden State is going to have to live and die by the jumper. While they are showing the ability to do so against Denver, I think they will struggle to maintain that, especially if the Spurs can be crisp with their rotations. They also don't have the size to contend with Duncan/Splitter/Baynes, especially now that their 1B option (David Lee) is out.

I'm really hoping to see the DENvGSW series go 6 or 7 games though, so we can buy a little more practice time and time for Splitter and Diaw to get back on their feet.


Preferably 6, I can't see GS winning again in Denver in a game 7.

[spurraider21]

Spurs have beaten every team in the Western Conference in the postseason during the Tim Duncan Era except for two teams: Golden State and Houston. Time to make it one.

sacramento?

[ironman2886]

sacramento?
Spurs beat them in 2006 I think. I remember Ron Artest was on the Kings at the time.

[Mark in Austin]

GS will be a tough out. The Spurs historically struggle against teams that shoot well; especially from mid range. (Dallas, 2006; OKC last year). The Spurs will have to step up defensively.

[spurraider21]

Spurs beat them in 2006 I think. I remember Ron Artest was on the Kings at the time.

holy crap good call. funny how i remembered the early Duncan era playoffs but couldn't remember a series as recent as 06 :lol

[HarlemHeat37]

GS will be a tough out. The Spurs historically struggle against teams that shoot well; especially from mid range. (Dallas, 2006; OKC last year). The Spurs will have to step up defensively.

The Mavs were 5th in the NBA in FTAs that year and OKC was #2..they could beat teams in multiple ways, not just jump shooting..

The Warriors don't really get to the line, tbh, they're one-dimensional..

This reminds me of the 2007 Warriors that defeated Dallas..everybody expected them to advance and continue their hot shooting in the subsequent rounds, but they got killed by a so-so Jazz team in the 2nd round..

[FromWayDowntown]

Actually, the only two Western Conference teams the Spurs have never beaten in a playoff series, period, are the Rockets (lost in 1980 ECFR (1-2), lost in 1981 WCSF (3-4), lost in 1995 WCF (2-4)) and Warriors (lost in 1991 WCFR (1-3)).

The odds definitely favor the Warriors at this point. Since 2010, this scenario -- lower seeded team wins 1 of first 2 on road, then sweeps Games 3 & 4 at home -- has occurred 6 times, to my count; in every one of those instances, the lower seeded team has won the series in either 6 or 7:


PHI d. CHI 2012 ECFR in 6
LAC d. MEM 2012 WCFR in 7
MEM d. SA 2011 WCFR in 6
ATL d. ORL 2011 ECFR in 6
SA d. DAL 2010 WCFR in 6
DEN d. UTH 2010 WCFR in 6

[sananspursfan21]

If Denver would play the spurs the way they played GS In the series then I would fear them less. GS will give a scare but I think it'll be a competitive 5 game series. If we were to see the nuggets miraculously I think we could handle them no sweat. They were slower closing out than the lakers tbh

[dylankerouac]

GS will be a tough out. The Spurs historically struggle against teams that shoot well; especially from mid range. (Dallas, 2006; OKC last year). The Spurs will have to step up defensively.

Agree with this. During these playoffs Curry and Thompson are shooting above 50% for mid-range and very close to 50% if you include 3 point percentage as well. From this point on, the Spurs must be able to defend the mid-range shot and also be ready to use it in their offense once these lanes and open looks close off.

Also, if they get to OKC I don't believe Ibaka's mid-range shot should be ignored per the norm. Interestingly, Lebron got all he wanted against the Bucks, 60% of his shots were at the rim while he only took 13 shots (~20%) between 3 ft < 3 point range and another 11 shots beyond the 3 point line.

[J.T.]

Actually, the only two Western Conference teams the Spurs have never beaten in a playoff series, period, are the Rockets (lost in 1980 ECFR (1-2), lost in 1981 WCSF (3-4), lost in 1995 WCF (2-4)) and Warriors (lost in 1991 WCFR (1-3)).

Holy crap, didn't know they hadn't beaten either team ever. I knew about the 1995 Rockets loss, but I became a Spurs fan in 1992 when I moved to San Antonio so I'm too young to really remember anything before that.

[Spur|n|Austin]

I'll take GS over Denver for all the reasons people listed above, PLUS the fact that we don't have to play in the higher altitude.

[z0sa]

GS home crowd basically guarantees them a win at home.... but so does Denver's high altitude. Everything hinges on how well Currys ankle holds up.

[Obstructed_View]

Of course Denver would have to win 3 consecutive games, 2 of which are home games for Golden State.

Games 5 and 7 are in Denver, unless I'm mistaken.

[Obstructed_View]

holy crap good call. funny how i remembered the early Duncan era playoffs but couldn't remember a series as recent as 06 :lol

Nazr shoots the three...

[td4mvp21]

I'm surprised how worried everyone is over Golden State. If the Spurs can't beat a 47-win team in the second round (they might as well be playing in the East with a second round matchup like that), that's pretty pathetic. This would be the weakest second round team the Duncan-era Spurs have ever faced (based on win percentage), no?

[exstatic]

Hot shooting teams and players always revert to the mean.

[Captivus]

Many have probably seen this video, but for those who haven't...


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ua_fcYKPJ1Y

[FromWayDowntown]

Nazr shoots the three...

The Barry Bounce in Game 2.

Kevin Martin's breakaway winner in Game 3.

Artest hammering Parker late in Game 6.

[Obstructed_View]

Artest got suspended for cheap shotting Manu, Parker and Timmy all in the same game.

[FromWayDowntown]

And oh yeah -- Bonzi "Unfreakinstoppable" Wells (for 5 games . . . .)

[FromWayDowntown]

Actually, the only two Western Conference teams the Spurs have never beaten in a playoff series, period, are the Rockets (lost in 1980 ECFR (1-2), lost in 1981 WCSF (3-4), lost in 1995 WCF (2-4)) and Warriors (lost in 1991 WCFR (1-3)).

I guess, technically, the Spurs haven't beaten Oklahoma City (though they were 3-0 in series against Seattle).

[Budkin]

Nazr shoots the three...

I don't think he played another minute in the playoffs after that, right?

[Sean Cagney]

The Barry Bounce in Game 2.

Kevin Martin's breakaway winner in Game 3.

Artest hammering Parker late in Game 6.
LOL that was such a crazy series of luck! Barry's three should not have fell! Kevin Martins lucky nearly blocked flip after Manu turned it over! We had that game too but hey an eye for an eye.

[pookenstein]

I guess, technically, the Spurs haven't beaten Oklahoma City (though they were 3-0 in series against Seattle).


Nope. If OKC shares the Sonic's history in success, they also share the history in defeats.

[will_spurs]

Hot shooting teams and players always revert to the mean.

Hopefully they will only revert to the mean in round 2, would make the Spurs' life much easier.

[Obstructed_View]

I don't think he played another minute in the playoffs after that, right?

He did, but he was phased out. He played 25 minutes in game 2, then nine minutes in game 3, then Rasho started game 4, then Horry started and the two centers fell behind Oberto in the rotation.

[Budkin]

He did, but he was phased out. He played 25 minutes in game 2, then nine minutes in game 3, then Rasho started game 4, then Horry started and the two centers fell behind Oberto in the rotation.

And then Pop lost his mind in the Dallas series and didn't play the bigs at all.

[deibero]

keep in kind that many of us were picking GS as our preferred opponent for round 1 before the playoffs, so if we got to sweep a depleted lakers and we're facing GS in round 2 instead, you cant ask for much more!

[Obstructed_View]

And then Pop lost his mind in the Dallas series and didn't play the bigs at all.

We need to stop talking about 2006 tbh


http://25.media.tumblr.com/tumblr_m5eam2e6zP1qhcrb0o1_500.jpg
In Control.

[Dr Cox]

Just win tonight Den....then idc after that...

[Embedded]

Games 5 and 7 are in Denver, unless I'm mistaken.Yes, you're right, I am dumb.

[TampaDude]

Nuggz forced Game 6. GS should close it out on Thursday night.

[Kidd K]

I dunno, both teams are run and gun teams. Fareid is a banger but so is Bogut. We're pretty much getting a similar team regardless of who we get. The Warriors are faster while the Nuggets are tougher defensively.

Either way though, unlike the Lakers in the first round, playing either of them will be an excellent preparation for the Thunder after. . .because we will be used to fast tempo playoff play. :)

Anyway, Golden State is gonna be tougher than you guys think, imo. Curry is an excellent PG who goes overlooked, and Jack is one of the better backup PGs/occaisional starter at SG on any team in the NBA. We're going to have our hands full, but I like what I've seen from the Spurs in the first round. My confidence in them has been restored somewhat.

[InRareForm]

Round 2 no cake walk, but playing Memphis in WCF would be the ultimate revenge series from 2011 tbh...

[Legacy]

Great. Another lame T-Shirt homecrowd GS has over there in the Bay area. Bright GOLDEN-YELLOW T-shirts at that, obviously. Bright as the SUN. GAH! Help me! Help me!... I'm melting!... :p: :lol