From the National Hurricane Center

[Johnny_Blaze_47]

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT4+shtml/092301.shtml

000
WTNT44 KNHC 100303
TCDAT4
HURRICANE DENNIS DISCUSSION NUMBER 23
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
10 PM CDT SAT JUL 09 2005

AFTER DEEPENING AT A RATE THAT BORDERED ON INSANE DURING THE
AFTERNOON...DENNIS HAS CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN AT A MORE NORMAL
RATE THIS EVENING. REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT SHOW THAT THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS FALLEN TO 941
MB...WITH MAXIMUM FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 122 KT IN THE NORTHEAST
QUADRANT. BASED ON THIS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS 110 KT. IT IS
EXPECTED THAT WHEN THE AIRCRAFT AGAIN SAMPLES THE NORTHEAST EYEWALL
THAT IT WILL FIND STRONGER WINDS THAT WILL JUSTIFY UPGRADING DENNIS
TO A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT ALTHOUGH
DENNIS HAS A VERY LARGE OUTER WIND FIELD... THE HURRICANE FORCE
WINDS ARE CONFINED TO A VERY SMALL AREA NEAR THE CENTER.

THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY. DENNIS IN ON
THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...AND EAST OF A
MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM ARKANSAS SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD
TO JUST OFF THE TEXAS COAST. THIS COMBINATION SHOULD KEEP DENNIS
ON A GENERAL NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK FOR AT
LEAST 2 DAYS...WITH THIS MOTION BRINGING THE STORM INLAND ON
SUNDAY. TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED IN CALLING FOR
LANDFALL IN THE PENSACOLA FLORIDA-PASCAGOULA MISSISSIPPI AREA...AND
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS BASICALLY DOWN THE MIDDLE OF THE
CLUSTER JUST A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. AFTER
LANDFALL...DENNIS SHOULD SLOW AND GRADUALLY RECURVE INTO THE
WESTERLIES OVER THE MID-MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS.

THE COMBINATION OF TIGHT INNER CORE...GOOD TO EXCELLENT OUTFLOW OVER
THE NORTHEASTERN SEMICIRCLE...WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES...AND
COLD CONVECTIVE TOPS SUGGESTS THAT DENNIS HAS NOT YET FINISHED
STRENGTHENING. THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR THE SYSTEM TO
REACH 120 KT IN 12 HR. AFTER THAT...CONCENTRIC EYEWALL CYCLES
ALONG WITH POSSIBLE DRY AIR INTRUSION AND POSSIBLY INCREASING SHEAR
WILL LIKELY END STRENGTHENING. DENNIS WILL WEAKEN AFTER LANDFALL
AND EVENTUALLY BECOME A LOW PRESSURE AREA.

34 KT WINDS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT HAVE BEEN REVISED OUTWARD
BASED ON OBSERVATIONS AT KEY WEST.

FORECASTER BEVEN

------

You know when the government is using that term, somebody's fucked.

[SpursFanDan]

Its gonna get crazy... both of my sisters live in panama city, so does three of my nephews. I hope they found shelter... My gf is in Louisiana for the week... so I hope shes gonna be alright also.

[MannyIsGod]

A Cat 4 storm this early in the season is really rare. The water is hot down there, but not as hot as it's going to get so there's usually not enough energy this early to support a stormof this magnitude. But all the ingredients are there and when that shit comes ashore, someone's grabbing their ankles.

[Johnny_Blaze_47]

Category Four Hurricane = Chinga su madre!

[MannyIsGod]

Category Four Hurricane = Chinga su madre!
Yes, I assume you're very familliar with Typhoons. http://spurstalk.com/forums/images/smilies/smielephant.gif

[SpursFanDan]

Category Four Hurricane = Chinga su madre!
:lol :lol :lol

[Johnny_Blaze_47]

Yes, I assume you're very familliar with Typhoons. http://spurstalk.com/forums/images/smilies/smielephant.gif

Fucker. :lol

[Mr Dio]

It is going to be a weak Cat 4..still a Cat 4.

Water temps near the equator haven't been this warm this early in our lifetime(s) that I know of. Could partially explain why we're getting, and will continue to get more severe weather so early in the season. Expect this to continue thru the end of this decade at least. From last yr to til Nov 2010 I think will bring us possibly 4 of the worst storm seasons since probably aound '70.

It is going to be a very busy work week if the # of Pensacola homes still UNREPAIRED from last yr is even close.

[MannyIsGod]

A cat 4 - even a weak one - will fuck you up. Yeah this thing is going to go right over the part of the country that got nailed last fall.

Sucks for Florida.

[Cant_Be_Faded]

what size hurricane was it that hit texas not too long ago?

[MannyIsGod]

what size hurricane was it that hit texas not too long ago?
The one that came onshore south of Corpus? I think that was a Cat 3. I was driving north on 281 during that storm almost got blown off the road several times. Then I hit 37 and all of Corpus was already on the highway.

[Cant_Be_Faded]

LOL. we got winds in victoria...alot of roofs got de-shingled. a few trees knocked over. nothing too serious. these dudes that worked at a ranch said they were pushing trees over with the help of the wind and seeing how fast they could run with the wind blowing at their backs...apparently pretty fast

[MannyIsGod]

Apparently that one was a Cat 2 when it landed, but it was a Cat 4 at one point in the gulf.

[MannyIsGod]

i bet you could run pretty fast if la migra was at your back
:lol

[Aggie Hoopsfan]

Yeah my sister is basically two hours drive due north of Panama City Beach, up in Alabama.

She's got to stick around for work, good thing they have a command bunker to hide out in though.

[Cant_Be_Faded]

i bet you could run pretty fast if la migra was at your back


Flop you!!!!! Flop alla ya's!!

I've narrowed it down to tony tight lips or frankie the squealer

[Johnny Tightlips]

I ain't saying nothin

[Mr Dio]

Well, have read & just saw on tv as well that if another storm happens in the Gulf this season it will all but drain the Gulf of the energy needed to sustain a high Cat 4 or Cat 5 hurricane.
Bad news is that the storms haven't drained any energy from the South or Southwest Atlantic so the 1st couple might be awesome in strength & hit higher up on the Eastern seaboard.
Hopefully this yr's version of the 3 that hit Fla last yr are the ones that hit the Fla/Al/Ma/La area (Arlene/Cindy/Dennis). If so, the US has escaped what could've been very bad. Dennis is prob now going to just drag along and flood areas in the SE.

[Samr]

if another storm happens in the Gulf this season it will all but drain the Gulf of the energy needed to sustain a high Cat 4 or Cat 5 hurricane.

Can someone explain this? What do you mean "energy?" You're speaking of it like it is a measurable object.

I thought the "energy" was warm water feeding the storms. How can that not be replenished?

[MannyIsGod]

Well, have read & just saw on tv as well that if another storm happens in the Gulf this season it will all but drain the Gulf of the energy needed to sustain a high Cat 4 or Cat 5 hurricane.
Bad news is that the storms haven't drained any energy from the South or Southwest Atlantic so the 1st couple might be awesome in strength & hit higher up on the Eastern seaboard.
Hopefully this yr's version of the 3 that hit Fla last yr are the ones that hit the Fla/Al/Ma/La area (Arlene/Cindy/Dennis). If so, the US has escaped what could've been very bad. Dennis is prob now going to just drag along and flood areas in the SE.
Sorry Dio, but I'd love to see a source that said this. The source of energy for these storms is about 5 billion years from being drained because its the sun.

The direction these storms go is affected by where they form only because they have to travel from that location. It depends more on the steering currents and the pressures in the atmosphere. For example, with a ridge over south texas and the eastern seaboard right now, storms are being funneled in between. Thats why the last 2 storms have hit the mid Gulf Region.

The Gulf region if far from safe at this point.

[exstatic]

Hurricanes have historically come in strong and weak cycles. We're just leaving a weak cycle and entering a strong one.

[Trainwreck2100]

Yes, I assume you're very familliar with Typhoons. http://spurstalk.com/forums/images/smilies/smielephant.gif

Typhoons are nothing when you've survived Godzilla.

[Mr Dio]

Well, have read & just saw on tv as well that if another storm happens in the Gulf this season it will all but drain the Gulf of the energy needed to sustain a high Cat 4 or Cat 5 hurricane.
Bad news is that the storms haven't drained any energy from the South or Southwest Atlantic so the 1st couple might be awesome in strength & hit higher up on the Eastern seaboard.
Hopefully this yr's version of the 3 that hit Fla last yr are the ones that hit the Fla/Al/Ma/La area (Arlene/Cindy/Dennis). If so, the US has escaped what could've been very bad. Dennis is prob now going to just drag along and flood areas in the SE.

Just so someone can read again..correctly.

[MannyIsGod]

:lol

I've never seen someone toot their horn when they are so wrong.

[CosmicCowboy]

guys...there is still PLENTY of energy left in the gulf. Water temps are 86 degrees+ everywhere I checked and that is a HUGE amount of latent heat/energy. These predictions of serious weakening may be overly optomistic. Check it out for yourselves if you don't believe me.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/Maps/WestGulf.shtml

[MannyIsGod]

The layer of warm water at the surface is shallow right now, so it probably will weaken some. But what could weaken it more is sheer from an upper low. High winds above a hurricane not in the circulation disrupt the storms and weak the entire system.

But to suggest that the Gulf will not be able to support cat 4/5 storms after 2 hurricanes in July? No fucking way thats going to fly.

[Mr Dio]

I guess Manny is right again everyone.

Emily has been edging towards the GULF & strenghtening SOOOOO much today that it is now a Mega CAT 5. Winds that were once near 140mph on Thur are now apprx 255mph in someone's mind.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at5+shtml/204805.shtml?5day?large

[Mr Dio]

I've never seen someone toot their horn when they are so wrong.

If you don't behave I'll make sure someone's mom doesn't toot your horn anymore.

OK Manny, it's over!
I want my double headed dildo back tonight........when we're done!

[MannyIsGod]

I'll tell you what Dio. If Emily doesn't regain Catagory 4 status by tomorrow afternoon, I'll get you a night with Paki's mom for free.

Emily has undergone an eyewall reorganizatoin today, all major hurricanes do that, which leads to a fluctuation in strength. It's grown in size and had a much larger eye today than it had yesterday, but the development temporarily lowers windspeed as pressure rises.

But, don't take my word for it. Just watch the storm.

[Shelly]

I think we need a Vbookie on this

[Mr Dio]

I'll get you a night with Paki's mom for free

She charges????

[MannyIsGod]

Bitch, it's on it's way. This is from the plane that is in there right now:


Data from a United States Air Force reconnaissance aircraft indicate
that maximum sustained winds have increased and are now near 115
mph... 185 km/hr... with higher gusts. Emily is now a category
three hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Some additional
strengthening is possible during the next 24 hours.


Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 35 miles... 55 km...
from the center... and tropical storm force winds extend outward up
to 140 miles... 220 km.


The minimum central pressure measured by the reconnaissance aircraft
was 958 mb...28.29 inches.


Thats a 11mb drop in pressure in 3 hours! 3 hours!!! It's up to Cat 3 again and it's moving over the warmest part of the atlantic with the shear weakening. Eat me, Dio!

[Kori Ellis]

Arguing about the weather?

It seems we've reached an all-time low.

[Johnny_Blaze_47]

Arguing about the weather?

It seems we've reached an all-time low.

Oh I believe we can get much lower.

[MannyIsGod]

Oh I know we can get much lower.

[Mr Dio]

Oh I believe we can get much lower.

Manny & Blaze!
You two STFU & don't you dare show anyone those home DVDs we made! :eyebrows

[MannyIsGod]

That didn't take long, she's back up to Cat 4 status.