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09-03-2004, 03:05 AM

Eleven Public Opinion Insights on the Election
Many indicators are close calls as the GOP convention ends

by Frank Newport, Jeffrey M. Jones, Lydia Saad, and Joseph Carroll
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GALLUP NEWS SERVICE

PRINCETON, NJ -- The Republican National Convention in New York ends Thursday with President George W. Bush's acceptance speech, after which the presidential campaign will kick into a new level during the last two months before Election Day. Here is a review of a number of key points about the election gleaned from recent Gallup Poll analyses of the people's views and perspectives.

1. Bush and Democratic challenger John Kerry are holding tough in their core states.

Looking at the average of likely voter preferences in the two-way race across the two latest Gallup Polls, Bush has a 20-point lead over Kerry in the "red" states, or those that Bush won by more than five points in 2000. Kerry has a 16-point lead over Bush in the "blue" states, those that Al Gore won by more than five points in 2000.

2. On the other hand, the race in key showdown states remains remarkably close.

The two major-party candidates are within one point of each other among likely voters (48% for Bush and 47% for Kerry) when the results of Gallup's trial heat ballots in the 16 states -- typically referred to as battleground or showdown states -- are averaged across the last two polls. (Gallup's showdown states are those in which neither candidate won by more than five points in 2000.)

Additionally, Gallup conducted August polls in five key showdown states -- Ohio, Florida, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Iowa -- and the average margin between the two candidates across these states (among likely voters) is two points.

3. Underscoring the closeness of the presidential race, the American public remains essentially divided in its reaction to the job Bush is doing as president.

The American public's perception of the job Bush is doing as president is roughly balanced between those who approve (49%) and those who disapprove (47%). This has not changed materially for months. Gallup has asked the Bush job approval question in 10 polls since May, and Bush's approval rating has ranged only between 46% and 51%.

Bush's overall image -- 54% favorable in the Aug. 23-25 poll -- is a little more positive than his job approval rating, suggesting more Americans appear to like Bush personally than approve of the job he is doing as president.

4. Moderate Republicans constitute a relatively small but important target segment of voters in this election.

Moderate Republicans (that is, Republicans who describe their political views as "moderate" or "liberal") constitute about a third of the group of Republican likely voters in Gallup's recent polling, and are somewhat cross-pressured by the conflict between their party affiliation and their ideology. Gallup polling finds that moderate Republicans are about three times as likely as conservative Republicans (25% vs. 9%) to be swing voters (that is, either undecided or willing to consider changing their vote). Additionally, 13% of moderate Republicans say they will vote for Kerry, compared with 4% of conservative Republicans. All of this suggests that moderate Republicans are less likely to be locked into a vote for the party and are therefore more susceptible to campaign blandishments from both sides.

5. Democratic vice presidential candidate John Edwards is a strength for the Democratic ticket.

On a head-to-head basis, Edwards appears to be a stronger vice presidential candidate than Republican Vice President Dick Cheney is. Edwards has a 52% favorable, 28% unfavorable rating, which compares positively with Cheney's 44% favorable, 45% unfavorable rating.

When registered voters are asked, "If you could vote separately for vice president, would you be more likely to vote for: Edwards or Cheney?", Edwards wins over Cheney by 52% to 42%.

Cheney has the most negative image of any of the six GOP convention speakers (Bush, first lady Laura Bush, former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani, Arizona Sen. John McCain, California Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger, and Cheney) tested in our Aug. 23-25 CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll.

6. Public opinion has turned slightly more supportive of U.S. involvement in Iraq.

Fifty-one percent of Americans now say that the situation in Iraq was worth going to war over. In early May, that number was 44%.

Similarly, the two most recent Gallup Polls have shown that about 50% of Americans believe that the U.S. involvement in Iraq was not a mistake. That is up from three polls in late June and early July when only about 45% thought that sending troops to Iraq was not a mistake, and the "mistake" number was up to 54%.

Bush is now in his strongest position vis-à-vis Kerry on Iraq since March. Forty-nine percent of Americans say that Bush can do the best job of handling Iraq, compared with 43% who choose Kerry. This marks a turnaround from Gallup's July 30-Aug. 1 poll (just after the Democratic convention), when 48% chose Kerry and 47% chose Bush.

7. The economy remains a weak spot for Bush.

Kerry continues to lead Bush -- most recently by 49% to 43% -- when the public is asked which of the two candidates would do the better job of handling the economy. Although the specific size of this gap has varied from poll to poll, Kerry has led Bush on the economy across six different Gallup Polls since early March.

Additionally, Bush has not gotten a lot of mileage out of his signature economic issue: tax cuts. Kerry has a slight lead over Bush (47% to 44%) when Gallup asks the public which candidate can better handle taxes.

The American public is no more likely to say that the tax cuts passed in 2001-2002 have helped the U.S. economy than it is to say the cuts have hurt the economy. About a third of Americans -- mostly Republicans -- say the tax cuts have mostly helped the U.S. economy, while exactly the same percentage say that the tax cuts have hurt. Most of the rest say that they have had no effect. About two-thirds of Americans say that the tax cuts have had no effect or a negative effect.

8. Despite Kerry's efforts to emphasize his personal leadership credentials (as evidenced by his service in Vietnam), Bush is now in his strongest position of the year in terms of being perceived as a "strong and decisive leader."

Bush's lead has grown on this leadership dimension. Bush now beats Kerry by a 20-point margin (54% to 34%) when Americans are asked if the phrase "is a strong and decisive leader" applies more to Bush or Kerry. Immediately after the Democratic convention, Bush's lead on this dimension was just 10 points. Now the question is whether his 20-point lead will expand further as a result of the GOP convention.

Bush has also regained an advantage over Kerry when the public is asked who would be the better commander in chief.

9. Satisfaction with the way things are going in the United States remains below 50%, but history suggests that presidents can be re-elected in this more negative environment.

Gallup's Aug. 9-11 poll showed that 44% of Americans are satisfied with the way things are going in the country, while 55% are dissatisfied. Half or more of Americans were consistently dissatisfied with the way things were going in Gallup's polls in 1996, while incumbent Bill Clinton breezed to re-election. In fact, a Gallup Poll conducted Oct. 26-29, 1996, less than a week before the election, showed just 39% of Americans were satisfied with the way things were going in the country.

The key to the interpretation of this satisfaction measure is attribution of causality. It is clearly possible for Americans to perceive that the country has problems, without assuming that the incumbent president bears direct responsibility for those problems. In some ways, the Bush campaign this year has used the negative challenge presented by terrorism as a justification for Bush's re-election. Gallup finds that an incumbent's job approval rating is a much better barometer of his re-election chances than is satisfaction with the country's direction.

10. Ralph Nader is not having much effect on Kerry's chances for election.

In terms of the national race, Kerry does no worse against Bush with Nader in the mix than he does with Nader out of the mix. Among likely voters in the latest Aug. 23-25 CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll, a three-way ballot including Nader puts the race at Bush 48% and Kerry 46%, with Nader getting 4% of the vote. Without Nader, Bush gets 50% and Kerry 47%. Thus, Bush's lead over Kerry is only one point greater when Nader is included on the ballot -- a difference that is well within the margin of error for these polls. Similar results have been observed in individual states in which Gallup has conducted trial heat ballots, but in no case does Nader make the difference between Bush or Kerry leading.

11. Schwarzenegger was incorrect in his GOP convention speech on Tuesday when he asserted: "The president didn't go into Iraq because the polls told him it was popular. As a matter of fact, the polls said just the opposite."

A majority of Americans supported the idea of the invasion of Iraq before Bush made the decision to commence military action in March 2003. Gallup's March 14-15, 2003, poll showed that 64% of Americans favored "invading Iraq with U.S. ground troops in an attempt to remove Saddam Hussein from power," and 57% agreed that the Bush administration "has made a convincing case about the need for the U.S. to take military action against Iraq." A March 17, 2003, CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll asked: "Do you approve or disapprove of Bush's decision to go to war if Saddam Hussein does not leave Iraq in the next 48 hours?" Sixty-six percent of Americans approved; 30% disapproved.

Gallup (http://www.gallup.com/content/?ci=12907)