Why Hack-A-Bogut is a Brilliant Strategy

[Uriel]

Many people in this board have been opposed to the tactic employed by Pop of hacking Bogut, particularly in situations where it doesn't seem to make sense. But I argue that the Spurs should actually employ this strategy early and often, regardless of the circumstances. Here's why:

1. It disrupts the Warriors' offensive rhythm.
So much of Golden State's offense relies on crisp ball movement and knocking down perimeter shots. Part of that comes from the free-flowing style of their offense, and sending Bogut to the free throw line completely mitigates that. It not only wears Bogut down, but the team as a whole.

2. It forces Mark Jackson to take Bogut out because he's seen as a liability.
Bogut has been a huge difference-maker so far in this series. Unlike David Lee, Bogut provides strong interior defense and rebounding -- aspects of the game in which the Warriors had outplayed the Spurs thus far. Removing him from the equation forces the Warriors to trot out Landry or Ezeli at center, giving Duncan a huge mismatch to exploit on the offensive end. It also opens up driving lanes for our perimeter players -- particualrly Tony and Manu -- to exploit, thus opening up the floor for our shooters.

3. It takes the crowd out of the game.
It's no secret that Oracle Arena is the loudest arena in the playoffs. The Warriors are a young team and feed off the crowd's energy, leading to spectacular runs and scoring bunches that can easily demoralize most teams. Hacking Bogut does not make for entertaining basketball, and generally drains the energy from the arena. This carries over to the Warriors' players, keeping them from playing at the high level that the noise would otherwise propel them to.

4. It buys rest for our team on defense.
Not having to chase Golden State's shooters around screens saves plenty of energy for our perimeter plays, which would be better left expended on the offensive end. This is particularly true for Tony Parker, who spends part of his time with the unenviable task of guarding Curry. Considering Parker (like Curry) is now gimpy as well, this could be particularly valuable, not only in this series, but also in potential future series' to come.

[DarrinS]

Hack a <insert name of shitty ft shooter> is almost always a good strategy. GS shoulda hacked Kawhi

[suitedkings]

I was hoping the Spurs would foul Bogut right as the Warriors were starting to making their move versus right away even though they only did it a couple of times.

[racm]

Not to mention that you'll live with 2 FTs at 55% compared to a 3 at 45%. The former rates to 110 PPP compared to 135 PPP for the latter.

As long as the Spurs win the TO battle they'll live.

[dmon35]

It kills momentum. WTF was up with Kawhi man...

[jesterbobman]

Also, he might be a bad enough FT shooter that it makes sense to do so. Generally not true(Even Dwight is probably good enough) but with Bogut's elbow injury and it looking horrifying, it might be worth it.

[racm]

It kills momentum. WTF was up with Kawhi man...

Probably gassed from playing a lot of minutes and doing everything.

Normally he's a great FT% shooter.

[BatManu20]

It's only brilliant is they miss. Luckily Bogut did. Now Kawhi needs to shoot 1,000 FT's tomorrow. Seriously.

[Nathan89]

Also, he might be a bad enough FT shooter that it makes sense to do so. Generally not true(Even Dwight is probably good enough) but with Bogut's elbow injury and it looking horrifying, it might be worth it.

He's a bad enough ft shooter and they are a great offensive team. Best case for the Hack Strategy.

[Richie]

Point 2 is so important. Bogut played Timmy excellently, when he got his 4th foul we started to dominate

[Whisky Dog]

I liked Pop using it when he did in the 4th because 1) they got us in the bonus early with some fouls and a couple bullshit calls and 2) it gave Parker a chance to rest that calf and get some heat on it to come back with time left in the 4th.

If the timing is great like tonight it can screw with that team and help the Spurs.

The most frustrating thing for me is the sheer amount of illegal screes Bogut and their bigs get away with. Should have called a whole lot more of those on GS and the ref definitely gave the better whistle to GS and let them get away with so much junk

[Brunodf]

Hope they don't hack Leonard...That would kill his confidence

[justinandimcool]

Most brilliant use of it I've ever seen. Out of the timeout, up 6, they've CLEARLY drawn up a play for Curry.

Boom. Erase the greaseboard. Bogut misses 2, we get 3 on the other end.

Brilliant.

[benstanfield]

It works because Bogut is as good from the line as Curry & Thompson are fading away from long distance, so we basically take the same odds for 1 point at a time rather than 3.

[racm]

Hope they don't hack Leonard...That would kill his confidence

One thing I've noticed about Leonard is that he doesn't have a bad game effort-wise. Sure, his J doesn't fall. Sure, he's 50% at the line. But he'll find a way to contribute.

[exstatic]

I was PISSED when Bogut got his 5th foul. With four, Jackson would leave him in, but with 5, he's not an effective defender and you might as well pull him.

[exstatic]

Hope they don't hack Leonard...That would kill his confidence

It wouldn't work, because he's a fundamentally sound FT shooter. You put him up there for 8-10 FTs, he's gonna get his groove back.

[TheGoldStandard]

The only acceptable time Bonner can be in the game is when he's fouling Bogut and then immediately subbed out.

[SPurs206]

Duncan looked scared after he blocked . Hack an aussie made it a lot easier.

[100%duncan]

It gives Parker extra time to rest on the bench without really erasing time from the game clock. That's the biggest thing imho aside form disrupting their offensive flow.

[Obstructed_View]

Didn't the Spurs do it twice to put them in the bonus with over 8 minutes to go? Doesn't seem too sound to me. Foul his big dumb ass out and then you're the one shooting free throws.

[blkroadrunners]

I thought the strategy was too late in the game to implement but it ended playing out well.

[Old School 44]

With this hot shooting team, I like it for a possession here and there even if Bogut makes them both, just to break their rhythm.

[DAF86]

Is not a good strategy when they can't buy a basket and momentum is on our side.

[Obstructed_View]

All this is acknowledging that it was successful in this game, but Curry looked worn out in the first half. I'm unsure if I like anything that gives him a chance to catch his breath. Maybe if he's hitting shots, but perhaps you don't mess with it if the shooters are cold.

[McGusto55]

Hack a <insert name of shitty ft shooter> is almost always a good strategy. GS shoulda hacked Kawhi

No shit...

[Brunodf]

Is not a good strategy when they can't buy a basket and momentum is on our side.
:toast+1

[Uriel]

Is not a good strategy when they can't buy a basket and momentum is on our side.
Actually, there were several instances throughout the game when they couldn't buy a basket and momentum was on our side, but Pop employed the strategy anyway. And it paid off handsomely.

I argue this strategy should be used as often as possible, regardless of the circumstances.

[Man In Black]

http://blogs.mercurynews.com/warriors/2013/05/08/spilled-milk-wsspurs-pre-game-notes/

As Anton Chekhov once said (paraphrasing):

“If you put a gun on the mantle in Act I of your play, that gun must go off before the play is ended.”

Gregg Popovich pitched just such a perfect set-up in Game 1 of this series. By intentionally fouling Andrew Bogut cursorily a couple times in the first half, Popovich planted the perfect seed in Mark Jackson’s head — and in so doing set up an entirely advantageous stage for his team’s closing run.

Since Jackson has acknowledged that the fear of the Spurs fouling Bogut led him to take Bogut off the court at the end of regulation, it was as if with 4.31 left Popovich just stood up and yelled down the court at the W’s bench…

“Hey, Mark, take Bogut out of the game now. My team’s down 16, and we don’t have much time left. We need to start going straight to the rim and then maybe get some pitch-out 3′s. We need you to stop running that damn 1-5 high screen that kept erasing every defender we put on Curry. In case you hadn’t noticed, we don’t have a Wilson Chandler who can switch or trap that pick. And while you’re at it, now that Curry’s run into the ground (thanks again for that — we didn’t have a clue about how to slow him down ourselves), keep running slo-mo iso’s for Jack. Don’t even think of running your offense through Bogut. We’ll foul him. I swear we’ll foul him.”

What Popovich’s Spurs hadn’t been able to solve in three brilliant quarters of W’s play and coaching — Jackson’s bold move to start both Bogut and Ezeli had creatively muffled all of the Spurs’ familiar first options offensively — Jackson suddenly solved for the Spurs himself with 4.31 left in regulation.

[Kidd K]

Honestly, I think I don't want many rest periods in the games against GS. Jackson forces his better guys to play way too many minutes, so rest benefits them even more than it does our old guys.

The fewer FTAs that take place, the better imo. Let Jackson ride his players into the dirt and lose the game by default while Pop keeps reloading the lineup and giving everyone rest.

I do agree that it should be used to take the crowd out of the game, to stop runs, or force Jackson to take Bogut out, but the rest part? That just benefits them really. I'm glad we didn't get 2 rest days between games too. That hurts them more than us. Look how bad Thompson and Curry were last night.

[DesignatedT]

The Warriors have nothing inside without Bogut. Doing anything to get him out of the game is a smart move. Dude is a beast.

[JR3]

I thought it was extremely brilliant the timing of Hack-a-Bogut last night. I felt like the entire first part of the 3rd quarter the refs were really providing some home cooking to the warriors. All the calls were going their way. The Spurs got in the penalty mad early and it was as if Pop was like, "fine! if we are going to be in the penalty all quarter, we will control who shoots the free throws".

[Stabula]

water is wet

[dbreiden83080]

It's amazing how badly GM's can blow drafts. The Bucks take this guy number 1 in 2005 and pass on Chris Paul and Deron Williams. And there is Marvin Williams at number 2 with Atlanta. :lol

[Captivus]

The hack strategy is not gonna swing a 10 point differential, having said that the effect is huge.
I would use it, specially when the Spurs are up by, lets say, more than 7. As soon as the GSW call a timeout and they come with a new play, you hack.
Theres nothing worse for a player/team that is losing to have the opponent fucking with you.
Is like wanting to get up and they push you back down.
The crowd effect is also a bonus.
The hack is a mind and momentum killer, and GSW is a streaky team, young and with no experience, they will snap.

[pjjrfan]

Pop is definitely in both Boguts and Jackson's head. I think Boguts is ok shooting fts but once pop starts to hack him you can tell his confidence just goes out the window and Jackson is crossing his fingers hoping he doesn't have to pull him

[TheGoldStandard]

Bogut is very limited but he's big both in height and girth. When he's not hovering around the paint we get better looks all day long and we can actually pound the ball. Anything to spark his liability issues is a good thing, whether it's Hack-a or being aggressive so he can foul us and sit on that bench. The biggest problem with Golden State is that they're a jump shooting team and if we play defense and keep them from taking easy baskets they're hesitant to drive the ball. It was also beautiful how aggressive we were when they were in the paint. Bogut won't get anything easy and neither will the rest of the team

[moisaenz]

It wouldn't work, because he's a fundamentally sound FT shooter. You put him up there for 8-10 FTs, he's gonna get his groove back.

Then he would start making mid range jumpers

[DMC]

Hit vs miss assessments. Bogut hits his FTs it's a bad strategy. He misses it's a good one. Intentionally fouling is not a good strategy because you stop the clock and give your opponent the time to rest and get points back or increase their lead. It's a desperation move for end of the game because there's no other option. You rarely see it make a difference.

Did it work? Who knows. He missed and we got the ball, but then if Manu hits that crazy three he shot in game one, we all talk about how great he is instead of what a bad decision it was. Hit vs miss assessments.

[exstatic]

Actually, there were several instances throughout the game when they couldn't buy a basket and momentum was on our side, but Pop employed the strategy anyway. And it paid off handsomely.

I argue this strategy should be used as often as possible, regardless of the circumstances.

Yeah, because when they can't buy a basket, the only way to go is up. You want to stop them from catching fire. They could get 3 transition opportunities in about a minute and hang 3 long bombs on us, and erase the better part of a ten point lead. I'd rather have Bogut hit both once or twice (not that he would) than to get Curry and Klay on a roll.

[Hoops Czar]

I hope Mark Jackson doesn't counter with a hack-a-Leonard strategy. We could be in line for a stalemate.

[Hoops Czar]

The Warriors have nothing inside without Bogut. Doing anything to get him out of the game is a smart move. Dude is a beast.
The Warriors will just counter with David Lee. Even at 50%, he'll eat the Spurs up inside.

[Whisky Dog]

Didn't the Spurs do it twice to put them in the bonus with over 8 minutes to go? Doesn't seem too sound to me. Foul his big dumb ass out and then you're the one shooting free throws.

When they did the hack on Bogut in the 4th it was on the foul that put them in the bonus, meaning if they hadnt done it the next foul would have had them in the bonus anyway.

[exstatic]

Pop is definitely in both Boguts and Jackson's head. I think Boguts is ok shooting fts but once pop starts to hack him you can tell his confidence just goes out the window and Jackson is crossing his fingers hoping he doesn't have to pull him

He looked worse shooting FTs at home than he did in SA.

[exstatic]

The Warriors will just counter with David Lee. Even at 50%, he'll eat the Spurs up inside.
David Lee can play about 5 minutes a game.

[silverblackfan]

I hope Mark Jackson doesn't counter with a hack-a-Leonard strategy. We could be in line for a stalemate.

I think that would actually fix Leonard's free throws pretty quickly. He is a better shooter and seems like he could figure it out. But, then again, I thought until the last few years that Timmy would fix his FT %. :lol

[Hoops Czar]

David Lee can play about 5 minutes a game.
Not sure where you heard that, but he completely dominated in his 3 minutes of action on Friday. I'm pretty sure he's going to see more and more playing time as the series drags on. I also don't think the Spurs will resort to a hack a Bogut strategy unless the Spurs find themselves backed into a corner late in te series. However, they might opt to put him on the line if he gets the ball and attempts to shoot.

[jestersmash]

Golden State scores on average about a point per possession (I think it's like 1.03). If you assume they would have scored their average in the absence of hack-a-bogut, then hack-a-bogut only makes sense when Bogut is making < 50% of his free throws.

He was 1-4 on free throws in game 3 (25%), so it probably paid off there.

The problem with basketball is you can't do controlled experiments by going back in time. Maybe if we go back in time and we don't hack-a-bogut, GSW misses on 2 straight possessions for a total of 0 points in 2 possessions as opposed to 1 point in 2 possessions. Maybe they miss, but Curry gets 2 shot attempts which gets him into a groove later on as he knocks down 5 of his next 7 shots. There are so many confounding variables that it makes the analysis tough.

[DAF86]

Actually, there were several instances throughout the game when they couldn't buy a basket and momentum was on our side, but Pop employed the strategy anyway. And it paid off handsomely.

I argue this strategy should be used as often as possible, regardless of the circumstances.

Because he was lucky that Bogut missed.

[Spurs7794]

People who think that Jackson will hack Leonard...why the hell would he do that? Leonard is an 80%+ ft shooter who has struggled in the last two games. He's not a bad ft shooter, he's just psyched himself out these last two games. I'd be stunned if he doesn't get back to being 80%

[Obstructed_View]

When they did the hack on Bogut in the 4th it was on the foul that put them in the bonus, meaning if they hadnt done it the next foul would have had them in the bonus anyway.

Okay, thanks. I thought they fouled him twice in a row. I maintain that 8 1/2 minutes in the penalty on the road is dangerous.

[Obstructed_View]

The problem with basketball is you can't do controlled experiments by going back in time. Maybe if we go back in time and we don't hack-a-bogut, GSW misses on 2 straight possessions for a total of 0 points in 2 possessions as opposed to 1 point in 2 possessions. Maybe they miss, but Curry gets 2 shot attempts which gets him into a groove later on as he knocks down 5 of his next 7 shots. There are so many confounding variables that it makes the analysis tough.

Yeah, since we don't know the alternative outcome, it's all just guessing. Sometimes you have to play the percentages. Pop was clearly thinking that allowing one of those shooters to get hot and get the crowd going at the end wasn't worth the risk, and it's a completely sensible way of looking at it. The Spurs aren't shooting well as a team, so putting this game away gives them an extra opportunity to get their offense straightened out.

[Spur Bank]

Golden State scores on average about a point per possession (I think it's like 1.03). If you assume they would have scored their average in the absence of hack-a-bogut, then hack-a-bogut only makes sense when Bogut is making < 50% of his free throws.

He was 1-4 on free throws in game 3 (25%), so it probably paid off there.
Based on Bogus career free throw pct, the point expectation of Hack A Bogut is 1.14 points.
It's a good strategy if used sparingly and opportunistically. For example, it can be helpful when the Spurs are behind because it allows them to get the ball back faster on offense.

[FuzzyLumpkins]

Hit vs miss assessments. Bogut hits his FTs it's a bad strategy. He misses it's a good one. Intentionally fouling is not a good strategy because you stop the clock and give your opponent the time to rest and get points back or increase their lead. It's a desperation move for end of the game because there's no other option. You rarely see it make a difference.

Did it work? Who knows. He missed and we got the ball, but then if Manu hits that crazy three he shot in game one, we all talk about how great he is instead of what a bad decision it was. Hit vs miss assessments.

It's a calculated risk. It's not as if you cannot assess what his FT is, has been recently or whether or not it streaks good and/or bad. It's also not as if it's a really significant risk. If he starts making FT you just stop doing it.

Given that information you can make an intelligent decision rather than use people's stupid uninformed hindsight assessments as for whether or not it's an intelligent decision when it's being made.

[FuzzyLumpkins]

David Lee can play about 5 minutes a game.

Yeah and he lasted about 2 pnr run at him before he was benched. He got a rebound when he wasn't boxed out though so look out!

[cd98]

It's amazing how badly GM's can blow drafts. The Bucks take this guy number 1 in 2005 and pass on Chris Paul and Deron Williams. And there is Marvin Williams at number 2 with Atlanta. :lol

Not a bad pick except for injuries. Bogut could have been a great center but for injuries. He's got a decent touch inside and he rebounds and blocks shots. He's also an elite level passer. You're not seeing the Bogut pre-injury in this series.

[Seventyniner]

Hack-a-Gut is an obvious name for the tactic, but I prefer Bust-a-Gut.

[Seventyniner]

Based on Bogus career free throw pct, the point expectation of Hack A Bogut is 1.14 points.
It's a good strategy if used sparingly and opportunistically. For example, it can be helpful when the Spurs are behind because it allows them to get the ball back faster on offense.

Fouling off the ball doesn't work in the last 2 minutes of the game, and that's really the only time you care about forcing the other team to end their possessions quickly, unless you're down 16 with 4 minutes to go or something.

And wtf is that avatar, Erin Barry's fallopian tubes or something? Disgusting.

[jestersmash]

Yeah, since we don't know the alternative outcome, it's all just guessing. Sometimes you have to play the percentages. Pop was clearly thinking that allowing one of those shooters to get hot and get the crowd going at the end wasn't worth the risk, and it's a completely sensible way of looking at it. The Spurs aren't shooting well as a team, so putting this game away gives them an extra opportunity to get their offense straightened out.

Yeah I agree, and personally I'm fine with hack-a-whoever in moderation as long as we're hacking ~50% free throw shooters and the expected points per possession from hacking is less than (or at least comparable) to the average overall PPP for the opponent.

It seems to have ancillary benefits as well like taking the crowd out of the game (although again it's unclear whether that's necessarily helpful for us) and giving our guys (notably Tony) a chance to get some extra rest while on the court.

[Whisky Dog]

Not sure where you heard that, but he completely dominated in his 3 minutes of action on Friday. I'm pretty sure he's going to see more and more playing time as the series drags on. I also don't think the Spurs will resort to a hack a Bogut strategy unless the Spurs find themselves backed into a corner late in te series. However, they might opt to put him on the line if he gets the ball and attempts to shoot.

Lulz his 3 minutes were against Bonner's weak playoff ass. Getting broken by a busted ass David Lee is what got Bonner benched.

[Whisky Dog]

Because he was lucky that Bogut missed.

That's like saying when you walk out in the rain you're lucky when you get wet.

Spurs are lucky when Curry misses a FT. When Bogut does it it's just the norm. That's why they foul him

[Poolboy5623]

Wrong timing on this one pop! Should have used this when up 10, in the third..would have prevented them from going on their run...now they're playing from behind and having to use it....smh