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Yonivore
09-02-2004, 02:20 PM
Rassmussen has Bush at 49 to 45 over Kerry. This is based on polling done Tuesday, (after Monday night's speeches).

4 points on night #1.

Can't wait to see the numbers Saturday.

Nbadan
09-02-2004, 03:20 PM
Don't go getting your panties in a wad. Rassmusccen is a right-leaning poll site and we still have 60 days and many more scandals to emerge, I'm sure, before November 3.

Yonivore
09-02-2004, 03:21 PM
You introduced me to Rassmussen, Bozo. You never qualified them as "right-leaning" before. I'm using your polling source from about 6 months back...remember?

That's why I keep telling you what they're saying.

Nbadan
09-02-2004, 03:25 PM
Your the one stuck on that polling site, I used them as a conglomeration of polling sites in a single post. None-the-less, you can always count on the Fox, Harris, ABC, Rass., and now, apparently the CNN polls, to be generous to the right on every issue.

Yonivore
09-02-2004, 03:27 PM
I see, so when the polls start reflecting what you don't want to see...they've begun to lean right.

CNN? Get real!

Nbadan
09-02-2004, 03:31 PM
I've always said that it was gonna be a close contest to the end, but at the end, things will burst at the seams for Neocons as more people come forth to try and save their legal necks with allegations of fraud, cronyism, and outright deception of the american people. It's not gonna be pretty.

Kerry will win by 10% at least.

Yonivore
09-02-2004, 03:32 PM
OMG! You're serious.

Nbadan
09-02-2004, 03:34 PM
It's already starting. Look around. Who do you thing the fBI is investigating in the Israel spy case?

Tommy Duncan
09-02-2004, 03:37 PM
In virtually every poll I've seen Bush is trending up and on a state by state basis Bush is in pretty good shape.

If Kerry was going to win this thing by 10% he'd be tied with Bush in Texas. Get a clue.

Nbadan
09-02-2004, 03:39 PM
Kerry just has to carry Ohio, Penn, and Florida to win. All are doable.

Nbadan
09-02-2004, 03:45 PM
Lesley Stahl of CBS reported Friday that the FBI is about to "roll up" a spy working for Israel from within the office of the Secretary of Defense at the Pentagon. "the suspected mole supplied Israel with classified materials that include secret White House policy deliberations on Iran. " The FBI investigation, headed up by Dave Szady, has involved wiretaps, undercover surveillance and photography that CBS News was told document the passing of classified information from the mole, to the men at American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC), a powerful pro-Israel lobby in Washington, and on to the Israelis.

CBS sources say that last year the suspected spy, described as a trusted analyst at the Pentagon, turned over a presidential directive on U.S. policy toward Iran while it was, "in the draft phase when U.S. policy-makers were still debating the policy."

link (http://dc.indymedia.org/feature/display/104306/index.php)

Tommy Duncan
09-02-2004, 03:51 PM
Kerry just has to carry Ohio, Penn, and Florida to win.

By that logic it is certainly doable that Bush carries Wisconsin, Minnesota, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Iowa, and Florida.

Nbadan
09-02-2004, 03:53 PM
We shall see...


Adding insult to injury, neither the CIA nor FBI were happy that Israeli spies operating under the cover of Israeli "art students' and moving van operators, and who were picked up by federal agents and local "first responder" law enforcement officers before and after 911, were quickly deported by immigration officers before they could be fully interrogated. The penetration of FBI and other federal law enforcement data networks and databases by Israeli software and telecommunications companies working under U.S. government contracts has also left a bitter taste in the mouths of federal law enforcement and intelligence personnel.

So now, it is payback time. The recent arrest warrants issued by the Iraqi government for Ahmed and Salem Chalabi (Ahmed's for counterfeiting Iraqi dinars and Salem's for murdering an Iraqi Finance Ministry official) indicates that Shaw's instincts about the fraud engaged in by them and their neo-con friends in the Pentagon were right on the money. Let us ponder that news again: the lead prosecutor against Saddam Hussein murders an official of the Iraqi Finance Ministry - an individual that just may have known something about what happened to $1 billion in missing Iraqi revenues. The accused is a partner of an Israeli-U.S. lawyer who is a close colleague of leading neo-cons in the Pentagon (some of whom are also dual U.S.-Israeli citizens) and the nephew of a man who was supported bureaucratically by a former CIA Director (James Woolsey), financially by hundreds of millions of dollars from the budget of the Defense Intelligence Agency, and politically by a think tank (AEI) that includes the wife of the Vice President of the United States. Uncle Ahmed was also a personal guest of George W. and Laura Bush in the VIP box at the 2004 State of the Union address. The President and First Lady welcomed a person who now is now an accused criminal to America's State of the Union address, a person whose nephew is now an accused murderer! John Le Carre could not have come up with a better international thriller scenario.

The recent decision by the chief judge in the Plame leak to order NBC's Tim Russert to testify about just who it was at the White House that contacted him about Plame's identity, while troubling for First Amendment freedom of the press protections, is an indication that time is growing short for the leakers. Three months before a U.S. presidential election, that could be a crucial windfall for John Kerry and the Democratic Party.

From the Wilderness (http://FromtheWilderness)

Tommy Duncan
09-02-2004, 03:55 PM
You're right danny. It would take one of your fucked up conspiracy theories coming true to save Kerry's ass now.

Nbadan
09-02-2004, 03:59 PM
I'll leave the conspiracy theories to those who still think Saddam clandestinely sent his mass arsenal of WMD to Syria.

:lol

Tommy Duncan
09-02-2004, 04:01 PM
Wasn't me.

You're the King of the Grassy Knoll around here.

Nbadan
09-02-2004, 04:13 PM
There is a way to prove the magic bullet theory wrong, but nobody wants to know the truth about Kennedy. Just dig up Connelly.

Tommy Duncan
09-02-2004, 04:14 PM
Jennifer?

Nbadan
09-02-2004, 04:25 PM
ummm...Jennifer Connelly in Requiem for a Dream or A Beautiful mind?

Yonivore
09-02-2004, 04:25 PM
What if Bush takes Kalifornia?

Nbadan
09-02-2004, 04:26 PM
What if Bush takes Kalifornia?

:rollin

Yeah, and Kerry takes Texas!

Tommy Duncan
09-02-2004, 04:29 PM
Kerry's lead in California is under 10 in a few polls I've seen.

Nbadan
09-02-2004, 04:31 PM
Kerry's lead in California is under 10 in a few polls I've seen.

It could happen.











Not! :lol

Yonivore
09-02-2004, 04:36 PM
That's what they said about Ahnold's chances a mere two months before he was elected in Kalifornia.

Maybe the Kalifornians are tired of Demoncrats and their ways.

Tommy Duncan
09-02-2004, 04:41 PM
What if Arnold starts campaigning for him in Cali? Perhaps hits Kerry on taxes and lack of a strong defense. If Bush comes out of this convention with some momentum and Kerry's campaign continues to be struggle then you never know.

The Demos have done well recently in California, but part of that was Clinton and part of that was that the GOP did not mount much of an effort there. If you have Arnold campaigning for Bush and couple that with a GOTV effort in GOP strongholds they could give Kerry a run there.

I mean they did recall a liberal Democrat governor there and thusfar Schwarzenegger's been a very popular figure. And it's not like California has had the long history of being a Democrat state like NY. A lot of the Demo's appeal in California is on social issues, not necessarily the traditional Demo fiscal policy recipe. Tax and spend is what has fucked that state's government up. Perhaps the GOP could tap into animosity against being taxed and regulated to death.

Not saying it will happen, but if Bush starts to look strong nationally over the next couple of weeks you have to wonder if the campaign might be tempted to try it out.

Nbadan
09-02-2004, 04:46 PM
Don't count on it. California is too big and too expensive to dump precious resources better used in real swing states.

The Gropeanator is a political force, but his progressive social views attract many democrat-leaning voters that aren't attracted to W for the same reason.

Tommy Duncan
09-02-2004, 04:53 PM
Again, all they would need is Schwarzenegger to make the case for Bush on the basis of low taxes, low regulation and a strong national defense. His profile is enough to get the message out.

If a guy who is a socially liberal on some issues can support Bush because he is for low taxes and a strong defense that message might catch on.

The money the GOP would spend would be in GOP leaning parts of the states.

In '92 Clinton won thanks in no small part to the recession that hit the South Californian defense industry. '96 was with Clinton running against a weak candidate. 2000 had Gore running off the tech bubble. Times are significantly different now. If voters still blame Democrats for the mess the state is trying to deal with now and feel that Schwarzenegger has done a good job then that might just set the stage.

If Bush looks strong and polls start to narrow in California then perhaps the GOP in California will start to become energized. Also there is the matter of Californian polls being open three hours or so after Eastern polls close and exit poll results are known.

Nbadan
09-02-2004, 05:08 PM
If voters still blame Democrats for the mess the state is trying to deal with now and feel that Schwarzenegger has done a good job then that might just set the stage.

It's impossible to draw conclusions about a state's national political ideology by the way voters elect state and local candidates. Just because the Gropanator maybe popular in California doesn't necessarily translate into enough votes to carry the state for W. Now if he was running in this cycle for Governor again, he may attract more Republican voters to the polls, but since Arnold ain't running his political clout will be minimal.

Hook Dem
09-02-2004, 05:11 PM
Arnold says,"quit being a girlie man Dan".:lol

Tommy Duncan
09-02-2004, 05:14 PM
It's impossible to draw conclusions about a state's national political ideology by the way voters elect state and local candidates.

No kidding. Yet it does suggest that voters might be in a mood for change.




Just because the Gropanator maybe popular in California doesn't necessarily translate into enough votes to carry the state for W.

Again, no kidding. The thing is, Bush would have a popular figure who is very visible statewide making the case for Bush. If enough voters blame the predicament of the state government and economy on the policies of the Demos then you never know.




Now if he was running in this cycle for Governor again, he may attract more Republican voters to the polls, but since Arnold ain't running his political clout will be minimal.

The man is the most popular Californian politician who is alive.

California has not been the traditional tax and spend style social Democrat state like a Minnesota, New York, or Wisconsin. I mean we are talking about the land of Reagan and Nixon.

It's been social issues which have helped the Demos there, not necessarily a love of increasing taxation and regulation.

Yonivore
09-02-2004, 05:23 PM
How many times does a Reagan or a Schwarzeneggar have to pull Kalifornia's bacon out of the fire before the populace starts to realize that maybe, just maybe, Demoncratic liberal idologies aren't all they're cracked up to be.