Someone Convince Me The Grizzlies Shouldn't Be The Overwhelming Favorite in the WCF

[timvp]

I apologize in advance but my first reaction when thinking about the Spurs vs. Grizzlies is Memphis should be considered a heavy favorite. Right now, I'm thinking the Grizzlies in 5 or 6 is a pretty damn safe bet. I hate to be this pessimistic but I just don't see how the Spurs are going to win this series. Maybe someone can convince me otherwise but ...

1. Duncan isn't playing that well. He had trouble with Bogut and Marc Gasol is just a better version than Bogut. TD has had a great season but it's asking a ton for him to shine against the DPOY.

2. Parker is hurting. He had trouble scoring against a Warriors team with iffy defensive guards and limited bigs. What's going to happen against Conley -- arguably the best Parker defender in the league -- and a team with legit bigmen and other players with agile length? On paper, this looks like it'll be a disastrous series for TP unless he miraculously returns to health.

3. Ginobili is no longer in the stage of his career where he can carry a team. And besides, going up against Tony Allen would be a tall task no matter his age.

4. Splitter played a bit better today but he's still playing without physicality. He has trouble grabbing contested boards. He still has issues finishing in crowds. Those three faults play perfectly into the Grizzlies hands.

5. Leonard and Green just came off of a GREAT defensive series -- but Memphis does their damage on the inside. There really won't be anyone for those two to shut down. Thus, it'll be much more difficult to impact the series.

6. Diaw, Bonner and Blair are all poor matchups against a physical frontline.

7. Neal's ballhandling and decision-making against that pressure defense? Yikes.

8. Does Joseph have the experience to play in what is going to be a glorified back alley dogfight?

9. The Grizzlies are at the very least as good defensively as the Spurs. Most likely, they're better. San Antonio was superior offensively for the majority of this season -- but they've fallen off a cliff in the last couple months. That ball-movement that made this team special is mostly gone. They don't have much in terms of individual creators. The Grizzlies offense isn't awesome but their scoring, on paper at least, will be more reliable since it'll come on the inside. Add in the points they'll create by forcing turnovers and hitting the offensive glass -- and I can't make a strong case for the Spurs having a better offense or defense right now.

10. We still really don't know how good the Spurs are at the moment. Should we take anything from sweeping the Lakers? Probably not. Is struggling with a Warriors team that was mediocre in the regular season a bad sign? Yeah, probably. Add in the poor way the Spurs ended the regular season -- and this team is still riddled with question marks. The Grizzlies, on the other hand, know exactly what they are and what they aren't.




I hope beyond hope that I'm dead wrong. I really, really, really want the Spurs to win this series. (In fact, just making it to the Finals would make my year; I wouldn't even care if the Spurs lost to the Heat -- I just want this team to make the Finals one last time.)

Hopefully there are a few pieces to the puzzle that I'm missing. Maybe one of you can give me some hope. Maybe when I crunch the numbers, I'll see it differently.

I want to believe -- but as I'm sitting here right now, I just can't do it by any logical means. I'm sorry.

[Spurs 4 The Win]

To be honest this is an obvious reverse jinx thread tbh :toast

:flag::lobt2::flag: Spurs in 5

[Robz4000]

The revenge factor you mentioned last season. Helps the Spurs match up better than in 2011.

[MR-Clutch]

Leonard has to leave his imprint on this series. If the grizzlies do win, my guess would be 7 games.

[T Park]

I don't see how you couldn't put Green on Conley and let Parker guard Poindexter, Prince, or Allen.

pack the paint and force Prince and Allen to beat you. OKC had success doing it...

[hyhy]

Grizzlies shoot ~80+ points each game. clippers and thunder do not have an offense to execute. Spurs just have to shoot 90-100 points for 4 games to win the series. Believe that spurs will not be held to 80 points for 4 games and we win

[racm]

They can't shoot 3s. Conley and Pondexter are the only credible 3 point threats and they don't shoot them as much as GS does.

And Baynes is always an option.

[timvp]

To be honest this is an obvious reverse jinx thread tbh

I wish it were, tbh.

I just don't see it right now..........

[Budkin]

This series is gonna be a war, but I think homecourt is enough to get us back to the Finals.

[Brunodf]

Another reverse jinx. :toastProps for Timvp

[T Park]

Itll be tough but I don't see how it isn't pack the paint and make Allen and Prince beat you. Parker can hide and rest on offense, Spurs bigs are much better prepared size and talent wise than 2011. Plus, the Grizzlies are VERY prone to drive and dish.

[timtonymanu]

Gonna have to be a pessimist like timvp.

The Grizzlies are just clicking at the right moment. You could think the Spurs have revenge on their minds, but they just look gassed coming off the Warriors series. So many question marks about the Spurs, while the Grizzlies seem to have things figured out.

I'm thinking Grizz in 6, tbh.

[TheyCallMePro]

Are you kidding me Timvp? They have 1 great player in Randolph, and their are times where he gets benched at the end of games because of disputes with his coach. Were not going to lose to Jared Bayless, Tayshaun Prince, and Quincy Pondexter either. We have the much better team. I shouldn't even have to go through the match ups. Seriously, this is not two years ago. We didn't have Leonard or Green, and Splitter never played. That's 3 starters. Were much better. I think everyone is overrating Memphis right now. Remember. Were not the most talented team, but were still TWICE as talented as Memphis.

[ElNono]

ZBo sucked all year long and for some reason he got his touch back starting in game 3 against the Clippers... he's a great rebounder, but you get the feeling his ungodly jumpers have to come back down to earth at some point... never better than this series.

Grizz are also a team that's tops in defense, but if you can consistently manage to drop 90+ pts on them, it gets very difficult for them to match that. More than the interior play, I'm concerned with covering Conley and Bayless from downtown... giving up 3 pointers against a team that has so much trouble scoring consistently can change the series. Spurs also need to focus on defensive rebounding... second chance points are going to be key, IMO.

[letmk]

Simple, Leonard, Green, Splitter & CoJo. And Manu knows that if he's off, he does not shoot. Seriously, this team is in the groove. The challenge by the Dubs actually does the Spurs some good.

As long as everyone is healthy, I'm confident the Spurs will win. I don't have a feeling about in 5, 6 or 7 games, but I just have the feeling that we will win, unlike in 2011.

[timvp]

Another reverse jinx. :toastProps for Timvp

I don't reverse jink playoff predictions, bra.

[Mugen]

Favorites? probably. Overwhelming? don't think so.

i don't think the Grizz are that much better than the 2011 version, if at all tbh. Spurs are better equipped this time around and have played pretty damn good ball for the better part of the last 4 games.

I like our chances.

[capek]

wow, just wow :td is all I have to say. I'll believe this is a covert reverse jinx attempt, and leave it at that...





































:td

[Drew2354]

Leonard and Splitter will need to be solid in this series in order for us to move on.

[FromWayDowntown]

I agree with the concerns and think the belief that Memphis is the favorite in this series is a valid one. I'll be surprised (pleasantly, but still) if the Spurs manage a series win.

I think if you're looking for some intangible that might justify some sort of seemingly-irrational belief in the good guys, it would be their motivation to put last year's West Finals behind them, but I'm not sure how far that will take a creaky team that seems to be susceptible to long bouts of offensive stagnation, has been really leaky on the defensive glass, and on its best day lacks much quality depth among its bigs.

[blkroadrunners]

The only con about Memphis is their bench, but players like Arthur have a living destroying the Spurs frontcourt. Bayless may go off too if Neal is guarding him, but in the season Bayless struggled against the Spurs.

This is going to be a 80-90 point long series. It will boil down to who can execute the final 5 minutes of the game.

[Dex]

One thing going in the Spurs advantage is that they've had the perfect tune-up to deal with the Grizzlies.

Pau Gasol and Dwight Howard presented the over-whelming inside presence that will rear it's head again against the Griz. That being said, Pau and Cryight are arguably a more dominating duo than Marc and Zbo, and the Spurs were able to counter that with a good strategy of doubling and trapping. The same strategy can be employed against Memphis, who are just as impotent with their outside shooting as the Lakers were. If they make shots from the arc, you tip the hat.

The Warriors, on the other hand, prepared the Spurs for defending a perimeter attack and dealing with a high scoring team. While the strategy won't really carry over, it builds the team's confidence that if they can drag down a team that is used to scoring 105 ppg, they can surely lock down a team that struggles to break 85. It will be a defensive battle, to be sure. I'm expecting some ugly games. But the Spurs have the advantage offensively, and I don't see the Grizzlies defensive prowess being enough to overcome that difference.

Finally, 2011 obviously lingers in Spurs fans minds when going up against the Grizzlies. However, as well as ZBo has played, he isn't at the same unconscious level that he was at during 8. Same goes for Gasol. Arthur seems to have regressed, and they don't have Battier there anymore to lock down the perimeter. Personally, I am hoping that the theory of lightning not striking the same place twice will work in the Spurs favor.

[ElNono]

I also think the slow pace is much better suited for the Spurs, tbh... especially banged up... no more chasing young kids around the perimeter

[Trainwreck2100]

They couldn't blow out a banged up OKC team, think about that the thunder threw out Ibaka, Perkins, and Collison, and the Grizz couldn't win by more than 6. Those games could have gone either way and Durant choked twice. Like i said elsewhere it's going to come down to our scrubs vs their scrubs. Don't even bring up 2011 cause memphis only won due to Shane Battier and Gravis Vasquez and they aren't there anymore. Neither is HWSNBN

[ducks]

first off bogut always has given duncan trouble
I like the big game splitter had tonight
I think this series blair might be usefully. He would have to prove his worth on the court. He needs to bang with randolph. He has the body and I do nto think he would be afraid to shove his weight around.

[Capt Bringdown]

You really don't want to be a work in progress at this point, but that's what the Spurs are unfortunately. The Grizz are right where they want to be.
Grizz in 4.

[DPG21920]

Uncle - my thoughts.

1) Home court. I know it didn't seem to mean much against GS, but it should help.

2) Spurs at least get 2 full days off and another solid break in game 3.

3) OKC, who had more question marks, is worse offensively and defensively than the Spurs was able to be in every game.

4) Not only were they in every game, they were in every game without KD playing extra well. Even taking their best scorer out, OKC still was able to have a shot to win most games. So, if the MEM takes TP out, Spurs have more weapons than OKC did to help put them over the top.


There are more questions than answers, and I am generally a pretty glass half empty kind of a guy because I know the Spurs well, but I would not say they are "overwhelmingly" dogs here. Dogs, sure, but I am pretty hopeful.

[DAF86]

If the Spurs are healthy/have enough in the tank they should win in 5 or 6. Memphis is one of the worst shooting teams in the entire NBA, with a decent game plan (like the one we used against LAL) we should be able to exploit this mayor weakness. Also, after that 2011 series Tony has dominated Conley in personal matchups. Spurs have won 4 out of the last 6 against Memphis and those two Grizzlies wins have been pretty damn close and we were missing key guys.

[RD2191]

Z-Bo's shooting against the Spurs this season. Spurs lost by 3 in overtime and Tim and Kawhi did not play in the 2nd loss.

5-21
8-15
4-11
4-11

[Poolboy5623]

Time to unleash baynes...hate to keep saying it, but if he's not in uniform..against this matchup, something's wrong. Problem is who sits? Tmac or mills imo

[letmk]

The only thing I'm worrying about is that Pop goes panic and starts doubling Randolph and others. As good as Randolph plays, he is not a KB/Durant type scorer. Even when he shoots 70%, the most he can get is 35 points. Let everyone stay with their own opponent.

[ironman2886]

ZBo sucked all year long and for some reason he got his touch back starting in game 3 against the Clippers... he's a great rebounder, but you get the feeling his ungodly jumpers have to come back down to earth at some point... never better than this series.

Grizz are also a team that's tops in defense, but if you can consistently manage to drop 90+ pts on them, it gets very difficult for them to match that. More than the interior play, I'm concerned with covering Conley and Bayless from downtown... giving up 3 pointers against a team that has so much trouble scoring consistently can change the series. Spurs also need to focus on defensive rebounding... second chance points are going to be key, IMO.
Zbo isn't shooting jumpers. He is a bull down low. He rarely takes jump shots anymore.

[SanDiegoSpursFan]

I think the Spurs can run against the Grizzlies. It will be tough with a hobbled Parker though. And the Spurs' bigs should be able to do a better job than the frontcourts of the Clippers and OKC against Z-Bo and Gasol.

[ElNono]

Z-Bo's shooting against the Spurs this season. Spurs lost by 3 in overtime and Tim and Kawhi did not play in the 2nd loss.

5-21
8-15
4-11
4-11

You can throw that out of the window, though... ZBo for some reason found the fountain of youth after game 3 against the Clippers... he and Conley are the head of the snake right now

[ThePop]

Damn even Pop probably lets the players enjoy a win longer than it took for this thread to show up.

[Chinook]

I think the Spurs are in a pretty good place, all things considered.

-Splitter looks like he's waking up. If he gets back to mid-season form, the Grizzlies don't have nearly the advantage inside that they may seem to.

-Green playing well combined with Hollins' desire to play Bayless and Conley at the same time means Danny (and Cory) can help Parker contain Conley. That should let Parker use whatever energy he has on offense.

-Thompson may be overrated as a defender, but having to go against size for a whole series may help Parker find ways to get off his shot. I could see this being an easier series on Parker, at least as far as individual match-ups go. Allen is really the only wing that may see time on him.

-Speaking of Allen, Leonard should have the advantage on him when Memphis plays him at the three. While Allen is a great defender, Leonard should be able to beat him on the boards.

-Memphis' bench is really not very good. If the Spurs are able to keep two of Duncan, Splitter and Diaw on the floor most of the time, that second unit has a chance to shine again. We saw hints of it coming back tonight.

Unlike you, I don't expect Memphis to win. OKC had no one who could score outside of Durant. They were also very undisciplined when it came to guarding fast breaks. They also didn't know when to double, which meant they pretty much let the Grizzlies' bigs score at will. The Spurs are a much better team in terms of coaching and having a good system. I don't see Memphis scoring as much on the Spurs as they did last series, and I expect the Spurs to score more than the Thunder did. When looking at how close the games were between OKC and Memphis, I think that little difference means a lot.

[Kuestmaster]

The spurs are going to win this in 5-6 games. Duncan, Splitter and Diaw can handle Marc and Z-Bo. You limit their production and they have nothing left. Bayless, Allen and Conley? C'mon, Tony, Leonard, Manu and Green are much better.

[silverblackfan]

First of all, mad respect for your jinx thread.

1. Duncan isn't playing that well. He had trouble with Bogut and Marc Gasol is just a better version than Bogut. TD has had a great season but it's asking a ton for him to shine against the DPOY.
Tim is not going to just drop out at the end of his career because Gasol got the award that he also qualified for.

2. Parker is hurting. He had trouble scoring against a Warriors team with iffy defensive guards and limited bigs. What's going to happen against Conley -- arguably the best Parker defender in the league -- and a team with legit bigmen and other players with agile length? On paper, this looks like it'll be a disastrous series for TP unless he miraculously returns to health.
Parker has been improving in each game of the GS series. He and Gino had a crap offensive game, and still managed to create enough points to close out GS. They will be fine.

3. Ginobili is no longer in the stage of his career where he can carry a team. And besides, going up against Tony Allen would be a tall task no matter his age.
Ginobili looks good right now. I don't think his shot will every match what it was 3 years ago, but his play-making, like Borus will more than compensate.

4. Splitter played a bit better today but he's still playing without physicality. He has trouble grabbing contested boards. He still has issues finishing in crowds. Those three faults play perfectly into the Grizzlies hands.
Splitter is clearly playing better as his ankle injury improves.


5. Leonard and Green just came off of a GREAT defensive series -- but Memphis does their damage on the inside. There really won't be anyone for those two to shut down. Thus, it'll be much more difficult to impact the series.
I translate this to mean that they can't do it again, but I think it is the foundation for their future sucess


6. Diaw, Bonner and Blair are all poor matchups against a physical frontline.
Agreed.

7. Neal's ballhandling and decision-making against that pressure defense? Yikes.
Agreed.

8. Does Joseph have the experience to play in what is going to be a glorified back alley dogfight?
He has not disappointed yet.

9. The Grizzlies are at the very least as good defensively as the Spurs. Most likely, they're better. San Antonio was superior offensively for the majority of this season -- but they've fallen off a cliff in the last couple months. That ball-movement that made this team special is mostly gone. They don't have much in terms of individual creators. The Grizzlies offense isn't awesome but their scoring, on paper at least, will be more reliable since it'll come on the inside. Add in the points they'll create by forcing turnovers and hitting the offensive glass -- and I can't make a strong case for the Spurs having a better offense or defense right now.
Meh.

10. We still really don't know how good the Spurs are at the moment. Should we take anything from sweeping the Lakers? Probably not. Is struggling with a Warriors team that was mediocre in the regular season a bad sign? Yeah, probably. Add in the poor way the Spurs ended the regular season -- and this team is still riddled with question marks. The Grizzlies, on the other hand, know exactly what they are and what they aren't.
That is why they play the games.
Personally, I think the Spurs can handle this series.

[ElNono]

Zbo isn't shooting jumpers. He is a bull down low. He rarely takes jump shots anymore.

He was making circus shots over Ibaka from almost the 3 point line the last game... I mean, I remember everybody going "wow ZBo" in the game thread on the NBA forum...

[DPG21920]

To me, it comes down to Duncan's gas tank and overall rebounding. Win there and Spurs have a good shot. Doubling like they did on Dwight will be tougher because Gasol is a stud passer and Zbo has gotten better there. Hopefully their scrubs don't make a lot of shots (which they didn't against OKC as evidenced by the low scores).

[RD2191]

Are you guys serious? I'm the biggest cliff jumper on this site and I have faith in the Spurs. Spurs in 4 or 5.

[Whisky Dog]

I think Green is ready for the challenge of making Connelly uncomfortable and making him work. I think we need Duncan to get his legs over these next couple days and be ready to go game 1. Wouldn't be shocked to see some Baynes for post defense and extra fouls.

Splitter/Diaw are key, especially Splitter. This team looked seriously outmatched by the speed and shooting of GS early but the Spurs adjusted and turned up the defense to win. They may look a bit out of sorts early against Memphis but I believe they can adjust and turn up the defensive intensity. Then it just becomes who can score the most in a defensive low scoring series like how the Spurs made games 3-6 of this series. I like their chances with the shooters they have over Memphis' scorers.

[FuzzyLumpkins]

The Grzzlies have an awful perimeter offense. As much as Gasol is a better version of Bogut, Allen and Conley are a way shittier version of the splash brothers. This means we can pack the paint.

Splitter gives Randolph fits. He likes to hit that 12 foot jump shot but Splitter eats that up. Randolph's post offense is overrated as hell. He can go ahead try to rainbow fadeways because Splitter just doesn't go for pump fakes.

Duncan looked slow because they had him dealing with Curry and Thompson off of pnr. Conley and Allen? gmfb.

Gasol and Randolph don't play much more than 35 mpg. Sure Diaw, Blair and Bonner would get destroyed by those two one on one but Diaw is tailor made for dealing with Arthur and we can still pack the paint off of Prince and Allen's man.

[DPG21920]

Spurs need to put their best defender on Bayless when he comes in. He is their bench and a scorer. If you shut him down when he is in, MEM struggles to put up points.

[silverblackfan]

Are you guys serious? I'm the biggest cliff jumper on this site and I have faith in the Spurs. Spurs in 4 or 5.
Wow, I was really confident until I saw this post...

[ironman2886]

He was making circus shots over Ibaka from almost the 3 point line the last game... I mean, I remember everybody going "wow ZBo" in the game thread on the NBA forum...
I have seen both of Memphis' series, and he rarely takes those shots. He is mulling guys down low and snatching up rebounds and putting them back in like a layup drill. I even thought it was in the Spurs' favor.

[T Park]

To me, it comes down to Duncan's gas tank and overall rebounding. Win there and Spurs have a good shot. Doubling like they did on Dwight will be tougher because Gasol is a stud passer and Zbo has gotten better there. Hopefully their scrubs don't make a lot of shots (which they didn't against OKC as evidenced by the low scores).

These two days off will be big, plus the three after game 2.

[Budkin]

Also Manu doesn't have a BROKEN ARM

[ElNono]

I have seen both of Memphis' series, and he rarely takes those shots. He is mulling guys down low and snatching up rebounds and putting them back in like a layup drill. I even thought it was in the Spurs' favor.

well, yeah, he's a monster rebounder and we're going to need to pay a lot of attention to defensive boards, no doubt

[Mal]

It all will come to how many bullshit fadeaway assshots Zach Randolph will make

[Spursfanfromafar]

I will look more into systemic things than individual things-

1) The Spurs' offense picked up in the 5th and 6th games. The ball movement was smooth, they were doing well in the P&Rs, the roll man was doing fine (Splitter, Duncan), the three point shooters were getting good shots off and Parker was mixing it up well despite his injury. The Spurs were thus looking more and more like the early-mid season team that was dominating on offense.

2) The Spurs' defense has been relentless in the last 4 games of the Warriors - tackling their outside perimeter game very well. Their interior defense has been good all along and should hold up against Randolph-Gasol even if the latter will get going relatively.

3) The Grizzlies' defense is fantastic and will work well against the Spurs and make them pay. But I think the Spurs' improving offense will hold on. On the other hand, the Grizzlies' offense is limited to interior play and Splitter recovering well from the ankle injury and a motivated Duncan should be enough while the Grizzlies' lack of a high voltage perimeter play or three point shooting should be their bane.

All said and done, the fact that the Spurs have improved defensively and are improving offensively, make it that they are the better team talent wise against the Grizzlies. They still lack their full flow systemically but they are getting there and that should help them overcome the Grizzlies hump in my opinion.

[Floyd Pacquiao]

you're over thinking it brah.... if tim and tiago can slow down zbo and gasol (which I have the upmost confidence they can) then the spurs will be victorious imo

[L.I.T]

Just can't see the Spurs pulling this out, unless they rediscover their shooting. Safe bet is Grizz in 6 with Spurs losing on Sunday.

However, if there are areas for hope it's that the Spurs have played opposing front courts well all year long, Diaw is a solid post defender (better than he is as a team defender), and the Spurs faced arguably as talented a front court in the first round. Additionally, the Grizz lack the same dynamism they had in 2011 in the wing positions. Which basically means the series comes down to Manu/Kawhi/Green, if TP/Cojo and TD/Splitter/Diaw can hold their own.

Yeah, this is an odd one to forecast. I think Grizz have just as many questions too, when you really think about it. They beat a quietly imploding Clippers team (CP3 vs Griffin/Jordan) and a seriously hobbled Thunder team. Not to mention two of the worst coaches in the playoffs when it comes to making adjustments and scheming.

[tmtcsc]

Hey man, I hear ya. Memphis is playing their best ball of the year right now. If there's a positive about the match-up, its that the games will be slowed way down. Memphis doesn't run nearly as much as GS does and I think the series really took a lot out of Tony on the offensive end. I don't know what to say about Manu, he's not consistent anymore. You have to live with bursts of goodness from him.

Everyone is healthy for the Spurs - relatively speaking. Diaw is back and so is Splitter. We'll need them to win the next series. I know this, the Spurs won't be taking them for granted and should be playing with appropriate fear.

[Whisky Dog]

I also think Cory Joseph is a true fighter. He's a tough dude and he won't back down or show weakness against the Grizz as the backup point. He's going to go hard and let the chips fall where they may.

[Sec24Row7]

Give me a break... I don't see them beating Miami... But Memphis?

[DesignatedT]

I have a feeling these games are going to come down to the last few minutes of the 4th almost every night. If the Spurs hit big shots down the stretch like they did tonight then they could win the games.

I also feel that while Memphis is a very solid team people are overrating them a tad. They have some serious problems offensively and the Spurs defense has been stout. Even if the Spurs are struggling I think their defense plus Memphis' limited offense will keep them in games. And if that is the case then it comes down to who executes best down the stretch and if the Spurs can get hot at the end of games then they can win.

[Mugen]

A Spurs team that started RJ, played Bonner heavy minutes, and featured a one-armed Manu took a superior version (IMO) of the Grizzlies to 6 games.

And now the vastly improved 2013 Spurs are supposed to be "overwhelming" underdogs against these guys? Not seeing it tbh.

[Arcadian]

Well...for starters, the Spurs have home court advantage. Then you look at the season series, and they split 2-2. Three of those games were close, but the Spurs won the only blowout.

You can never count out Tim Duncan...he's still better than Marc Gasol. At least, he's the perfect counter-attack for him.

I think Tony and Manu will surprise you with some great games in this series. I'm going Spurs in 6.

[T Park]

Spurs need to put their best defender on Bayless when he comes in. He is their bench and a scorer. If you shut him down when he is in, MEM struggles to put up points.

Even when he does score they struggle.

[mercos]

The Spurs offense is a concern going forward. They have not looked right for months, only showing flashes of their early season form since after the All Star break. However, the defense displayed in the Golden State series has me feeling pretty optimistic going forward. With Green and Leonard, we have a pair of elite perimeter defenders. It has been a long time since we have even had one. Duncan is still an elite rim protector. Splitter is very solid as well.

The key to this series is Zach Randolph. If the Spurs can contain him, I believe they will win the series. I have no concern over any wing player on the Grizzlies. There is no one on that roster that Green and Leonard can't handle. Marc Gasol doesn't score enough to be a big concern. All the Spurs have to do is corral Z-Bo, and Memphis will not be able to score enough points to win games.

Long story short, if a team consisting of Kevin Durant and a bunch of substitute teachers can stay in every game with Memphis, so can the Spurs. If the score is close, as it is likely to be, the Spurs have a chance. I'll take Duncan, Parker, and Ginobili in a close game any day.

[Mal]

Memphis have no outside game whatsoever. Paint will be really crowded. Another series, when rebounding will be the biggest factor of all.

[jhuan16]

T-MAC!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[InRareForm]

Can't wait to see what Vegas thinks...

Guessing Spurs -150 because of homecourt

[JingleJangleJingle]

90 points a game probably wins against the Grizz...their offense is just not as good as it was in 2011.

[L.I.T]

For all the questions being thrown at the Spurs (beating an injured Lakers team and a young Warriors team minus Lee), the Grizz have basically have similar questions to answer as well. Clips have lacked chemistry for the last few months and Thunder were without their centerpiece. Is the Clips/Thunder with their myriad issues really that much tougher than Lakers/Warriors? Not by much, if at all. Well ok, Lakers really did suck.

Not to mention Del Negro and Brooks inability to adjust.

[DPG21920]

Even when he does score they struggle.

Sure, but I'm talking about the difference in them scoring enough to win (in a low scoring game)l;;l;

[capek]

Random thoughts, in no particular order

1. Grizz benefited mightily from opposing team's injuries this post season. BG, RW. They've had a lot go in their favor. You can't say they've looked strong in these POs without that being marginalized somewhat by the opposing team's injuries.

2. As a result of #1, they haven't faced a team with many weapons. For instance the Thunder were SOOOO easy to game plan against without Westbrook. Spurs have way more weapons than any team they've faced.

3. Ya ya ya Conley >>>>>>>>>>>>> Parker, but the Spurs just closed out a series with Parker playing like absolute shit. How can you, in one thread orgasm over the Spurs finally having a legit backup PG in CoJo, and then ignore what that means for this series? Who was the backup PG in '11? Right.

4. Who were the Spurs wings in '11? Right. Who do we have now? Right.

5. Who were all those guys on the Grizz bench in '11 that absolutely killed us? Are any of them on the Grizz now? Right.

Ya, it's troubling to see Tim look increasingly gassed, but he's still putting up good numbers. Tiago looks like he's finally rounding back into shape. Manu is finding ways to contribute even when his shot is not falling. But most importantly we don't have to rely completely on the production of the Big 3 anymore to win playoff games. We have enough other weapons that nobody can score more than 19 in a closeout playoff game, and we can still win by double digits. The last 4 games of the GS series showed that our defense is back and is very solid. Honestly, the I don't think the Grizz can score enough points to beat us 4 out of 7, while we have enough weapons to throw at them that I think it'll just be too much for them to contend with.

I'm expecting 6 tough games, but that the Spurs have enough to get 4 solid wins out of 'em.

[Monkeyboy14]

I think this kind of reflects back to the spurs-lakers series with gasol and howard. Now im not saying pau and dwight are on the same level and marc and zach, but the spurs did GREAT on double teams and recovering from double teams. Like you said they do there damage inside, and green and leonard wont be as good defensively because of that. Well i disagree because now instead of green and leonard shinning on iso and on the ball defensive plays, they can shine on double teams and recovring from double teams.

[Whisky Dog]

Hey man, I hear ya. Memphis is playing their best ball of the year right now. If there's a positive about the match-up, its that the games will be slowed way down. Memphis doesn't run nearly as much as GS does and I think the series really took a lot out of Tony on the offensive end. I don't know what to say about Manu, he's not consistent anymore. You have to live with bursts of goodness from him.

Everyone is healthy for the Spurs - relatively speaking. Diaw is back and so is Splitter. We'll need them to win the next series. I know this, the Spurs won't be taking them for granted and should be playing with appropriate fear.

GS was playing the best ball of the WC playoffs until game 3 of this series when the Spurs turned up the defense. That wasn't a bullshit Denver team they took home court from and put away.

Grizz played the Clippers who have no coach and are athletic but retarded in basketball situations.

They beat a one horse OKC team with no starting quality PG and no Harden off the bench to light shit up in the best series of his life. This year's Spurs beat this year's OKC in 5 as they were that bad.

[Richie]

We've already played a series like this against the Lakers. Double the post, dare the Grizzlies to beat us from 3.

If Memphis wants to play thier best defensive lineup with Prince and Allen, it gives us a lot of freedom to stop Gasol and Randolph. Leonard and Green both have the length to bother the big men on a double team.

Memphis are favourites but we can win it if we try and get Prince and Allen to beat us

[RodNIc91]

I believe that the team almost lost its identity in the past round. The warriors sure tested the spurs even if they were the lesser team. Having said that, I think the Spurs have finally regained some traction and trust in their system again (27 and 30 assists the last 2 games). For me it'll all come down to our role players. Even if we don't have our Big 3 completely healthy or clicking, like DPG said we have more weapons than them. I'm taking a cautious optimistic aproach if only because I believe Leonard can explode in this series. I also think we can get away with our small ball lineup of TP-Many-Green-Leonard-Duncan when they have Gasol-Arthur. All in all I think the Warriors series was the perfect wakeup call and maybe this is truly a turning point, in terms of adjusting to the physicality and determination it will take to get to the finals (ala that bus stop after the sacto game in '07)

[ace3g]

4 game regular season match ups:

http://sports.yahoo.com/nba/boxscore;_ylt=AtqGGzkKHVplEAzPBusVeg4oPKB4?gid=201 3040129

http://sports.yahoo.com/nba/boxscore;_ylt=AlTxUOFx0GZOnYvo8qlUVzYoPKB4?gid=201 3011624

http://sports.yahoo.com/nba/boxscore;_ylt=Ag6vR8rxM2uMLQcVZsaTO.UoPKB4?gid=201 3011129

http://sports.yahoo.com/nba/boxscore;_ylt=Ahe2r9O8yEN2yPEsbzCzdo8oPKB4?gid=201 2120124

[DPG21920]

So timvp - what are your rebuttals to some of the optimism listed in here?

[Whisky Dog]

90 points a game probably wins against the Grizz...their offense is just not as good as it was in 2011.

Are you saying Shane Battier and OJ Mayo aren't walking through that door?

[T Park]

Sure, but I'm talking about the difference in them scoring enough to win (in a low scoring game)l;;l;

Oh yeah no question. After Green's performance, I have the utmost confidence in him and Leonard taking out Conley and Bayless.

[Whisky Dog]

So timvp - what are your rebuttals to some of the optimism listed in here?

1st rule of jinx thread is you don't talk about jinx thread, tbh

[DPG21920]

I tell you this much though - a solid game one performance and win is critical. Do not want to fall behind against this MEM team who can defend like they do. You saw the calming effect of that game one vs OKC for MEM. They lost it, but you could tell right there they knew they would beat that OKC team.

Winning game 1 and playing well, is crucial.

[Amuseddaysleeper]

I tell you this much though - a solid game one performance and win is critical. Do not want to fall behind against this MEM team who can defend like they do. You saw the calming effect of that game one vs OKC for MEM. They lost it, but you could tell right there they knew they would beat that OKC team.

Winning game 1 and playing well, is crucial.


On the money. Spurs can't afford to have the wind blown out of their sails right off the bat with a Game 1 loss.

My other concern is winning a game in Memphis. Spurs fared poorly in the '11 series on the road, and Memphis is undefeated at home in the playoffs so far.

[TE]

Spurs in 6. We'll lose game 2 and split one in Memphis. Unlike 2011, I'm confident we'll be better prepared for the buzz-saw that is Memphis.

[RD2191]

Both of the Grizzlies wins were by a combined 5 points. Kawhi and Duncan also missed the last game which was a Grizz 2 point win. Not worried, tbh.

[DPG21920]

Well, if the Spurs can't win on the road, they aren't going to make it to the finals. To me, with a team like the Spurs, they have shown HCA to be a little iffy, but they have also shown to be a great road team. It's less about HCA (although that is important) and more about the actual match ups.

Spurs have a good shot if TP/Tim are gassed up enough.

[LarryDavid]

Can't wait to see what Vegas thinks...

Guessing Spurs -150 because of homecourt

As of yesterday, the Spurs were -135 to go to the Finals and the Grizzlies were +135. I don't think tonight's outcome changes that much.

[emanueldavidginobili]

The Grizzlies are going to be a Fucking problem but I just hope we atleast make the finals

[DAF86]

We play an early game on sunday right? That sucks major Kardashian's ass, tbh.

[timvp]

So timvp - what are your rebuttals to some of the optimism listed in here?

I'm still soaking it in.

For the record, I don't put much merit into looking at the 2011 series as a blueprint -- too much has changed since then. And I'm more worried about the Spurs than I am overly impressed by the Grizzlies -- so critiquing what they did against the Thunder doesn't sway my opinion much.

Basically, I still see an iffy Spurs team with tons of question marks going up against a Grizzlies team with very few question marks. I think the Spurs will have to kick it up a notch to beat the Grizzlies and I'm not sure the Spurs have another notch to reach. In fact, it'll probably be difficult to remain where they are right now.

Hope I'm wrong but while I can definitely imagine scenarios where the Spurs win -- the vast majority of the likeliest scenarios have the Grizzlies winning in my mind.

But I'm not concrete about a series prediction just yet...

[2centsworth]

I'll bet you the Spurs will win this series. I love this matchup. I don't see how Memphis scores enough to get it done?

Spurs system will produce enough points.

Now against Miami we are the overwhelming underdog.

Grizzlies have very few question marks? They can't freakin shoot from the outside.

[Kidd K]

I think the main point of interest is how poor the Grizzlies score the basketball during a typical game compared to how much the Spurs score when they have a BAD game.

When you look at some of the Grizzlies' wins, they have like 84-88 points. A shitty Spurs game is like.. .a 91 point game. If the game is high scoring, most likely we'll be killing them. If it's low scoring, honestly, they just will not hit miracle shots at an alarming rate like the Grizzlies. They will brick enough to allow the Spurs to sneak back into games they're sucking in.

Another key factor (if the refs call the game right), is that the Grizzlies foul a lot while the Spurs made a point to have it's players practice increasing their FT% in the offseason. Spurs are good from the line now. Also, unlike 2011, Duncan is actually having a good season and Splitter is healthy and playing. Not to mention we also have Diaw now and Baynes to play a little when our main guys are in foul trouble. We also know how good they are, not more shock value of Gasol/Randolph's potential.

I think when you put all this together, the Spurs aren't as poor off as you might think. It's going to be a tough series, but I believe it's possible for the Spurs to end it in 5 if they take care of business at home.

[DesignatedT]

Guard Conley, Bayless and Pondexter and make Allen and Prince volume shooters.

[spurs10]

I believe our defense can hold them to < 90, while we have better perimeter shooters that should beat them offensively. Tony won't be as low scoring as he was tonight. I would agree they are peaking at a good time, but we are going be the more improved team. Manu and TP will never shoot as poorly as tonight in all likelihood. Last time they played us in SA we won in OT if I remember correctly. I expect more of the same really.:flag:

[Calispursfan11]

Timvp, I can't agree with you on this. Why? Not to burst your realist bubble, but the Grizz just beat an extremely depleted OKC club. The loss of Westbrook literally rendered OKC a one-limbed team. As good as he is, Westbrook's value was severely underrated. Plus his recent loss deflated OKC further mentally. This was easy for the Grizz. in other words, they looked better than they are beating OKC. On the other hand, the warriors defeated a great Denver team that honestly would have beaten OKC without Westbrook, but after the Spurs got focused defensively against the Warriors, Golden State just stopped scoring. The Spurs will simply have to stifle the Grizzlies post game like they stifled the Warriors on the perimeter. This is possible with a rejuvenated Duncan and improved Splitter. Green and Leonard can take a crack at Conley if he starts going off and Tony is having trouble guarding him. The Bears are good, but I don't understand where you are coming from here.

[SpurSwag]

Spurs in 5. We're better than them plain and simple

[Obstructed_View]

I've read all of your points, and I come away unconvinced. In fact, I'm in pretty much the opposite boat atm. I'm wondering how the Grizzlies are going to even hang with the Spurs.

I'll go over them one by one so I don't miss anything.



1. Duncan isn't playing that well. He had trouble with Bogut and Marc Gasol is just a better version than Bogut. TD has had a great season but it's asking a ton for him to shine against the DPOY.

Duncan looked bad at times, but he doesn't look injured, and he doesn't look spent.
Gasol is nowhere near as physical as Bogut is. Duncan has struggled against Bogut for years, or did you forget how bad their record was against Milwaukee?
Duncan struggled against quickness and pick and rolls where he had to show on someone willing to shoot from 30 feet away. Memphis won't be doing that. Playing against a traditional front line is right in his wheelhouse.
Duncan struggled against small, quick bigs who have access to long rebounds off jumpers. Memphis won't have that and won't be playing that way. This also means that Duncan can hit a couple of jumpers, and then go past his defender when he runs out at him and do damage inside. That's been missing since the Laker series.
Memphis doesn't have as much movement on defense, which means fewer guys running around, and more passes to the inside.


2. Parker is hurting. He had trouble scoring against a Warriors team with iffy defensive guards and limited bigs. What's going to happen against Conley -- arguably the best Parker defender in the league -- and a team with legit bigmen and other players with agile length? On paper, this looks like it'll be a disastrous series for TP unless he miraculously returns to health.
Again, I don't see Parker limping or laboring. He's also not winded, since his fourth quarters in this series border on legendary.
Parker spent a great deal of time in this series either getting crushed by picks because there was nobody to help him or matched up against much bigger guys while his teammates defended Curry. After checking Barnes, Thompson and Green, playing Conley straight up will be a vacation.
Parker can get space for his own shots with Duncan and Splitter in the game, even with Golden State's speed. Memphis isn't that quick.
Parker's going to be able to draw fouls when he gets inside.


3. Ginobili is no longer in the stage of his career where he can carry a team. And besides, going up against Tony Allen would be a tall task no matter his age.
Sorry to belabor the point, but Manu's not limping, not putting his hands on his knees, and doesn't look winded, slowed or injured.
Fortunately, the Spurs have a really good offense that doesn't require anyone carry it so long as they're passing the ball and looking for good shots. Manu's only job is to make sure Allen stays on him all series. The less time Allen spends on Parker, the better for everyone. If the ball is moving and the shot selection is judicious, that matchup gets a lot easier.


4. Splitter played a bit better today but he's still playing without physicality. He has trouble grabbing contested boards. He still has issues finishing in crowds. Those three faults play perfectly into the Grizzlies hands.
Splitter still looks relatively like crap but the Spurs' offense and defense clicks along so well with him in the rotation, the Spurs are playing bad and you suddenly look up and they're leading by 8. He didn't get a lot of rebounds, but he was instrumental in getting tough rebounds for his teammates in this game. The pick and roll with him and Manu made a cameo as well, which is a good sign, and his flip shot was going in. He's going to have to be tougher against Memphis than he was against Golden State, but he's healthy going into the matchup. Splitter was probably the best player for the Spurs against Memphis in 2011, and the difference is now he's starting and seems to have Pop's trust back. Also, did I mention he's healthy?


5. Leonard and Green just came off of a GREAT defensive series -- but Memphis does their damage on the inside. There really won't be anyone for those two to shut down. Thus, it'll be much more difficult to impact the series.
So Green and Leonard are playing defense at an elite level, are hitting their threes again, are playing with confidence, rebounding the ball exceptionally well...and you're worried about that somehow?


6. Diaw, Bonner and Blair are all poor matchups against a physical frontline.
First of all, no Bonner and Blair! Yay! That Aaron guy looks like a good matchup, and he's got energy. Diaw's playing relatively inspired ball, and would be good for the occasional matchup curve-ball.


7. Neal's ballhandling and decision-making against that pressure defense? Yikes.
Frankly, the only thing better than no Bonner is no Neal. Even if he hits the occasional jumper, they're running ZERO pick and rolls for him, and the ball movement is nonexistent when he's in the game. If Pop runs smallball sets against this team for any amount of time the Spurs are doomed anyway. Doomed, I say!


8. Does Joseph have the experience to play in what is going to be a glorified back alley dogfight?
I'm with Van Gundy on this one. He got roughed up by Golden State for six games and just kept coming back. It sounds odd, but for what he's doing, he's the one person I don't worry about because all he has to do is play hard.


9. The Grizzlies are at the very least as good defensively as the Spurs. Most likely, they're better. San Antonio was superior offensively for the majority of this season -- but they've fallen off a cliff in the last couple months. That ball-movement that made this team special is mostly gone. They don't have much in terms of individual creators. The Grizzlies offense isn't awesome but their scoring, on paper at least, will be more reliable since it'll come on the inside. Add in the points they'll create by forcing turnovers and hitting the offensive glass -- and I can't make a strong case for the Spurs having a better offense or defense right now.
You must have missed the last two games. The Spurs followed up a game where they scored 40 baskets on 30 assists with a game where they scored 33 baskets on 27 assists. 75 and 82 percent, respectively. If the Spurs don't move the ball on offense, they're doomed. Doooomed, I say. The Spurs will look at tape, realize that they pissed away two fourth quarter leads because they went away from their offense and tried to win shooting threes, and will hopefully decide not to do that against Memphis. The lack of any need to run four guard sets will probably help more than hinder. The Spurs, as bad as they looked at times in this series, were not a turnover-happy bunch. I don't expect that to suddenly change against Memphis.

Furthermore, it's worth noting that OKC's offense was beyond dreadful for most of the series because they clearly thought their season ended with Westbrook's injury. Kevin Durant going one on two or one on three for fadeaways while Serge Ibaka spots up for three in the corner is bad basketball, and while Memphis won four in a row, they didn't exactly put them away decisively. OKC outrebounded the shit out of Memphis too.

Memphis isn't playing the average NBA team on paper, they're playing the Spurs, who match up extremely well with them as long as Matt Bonner isn't getting a lot of minutes.


10. We still really don't know how good the Spurs are at the moment. Should we take anything from sweeping the Lakers? Probably not. Is struggling with a Warriors team that was mediocre in the regular season a bad sign? Yeah, probably. Add in the poor way the Spurs ended the regular season -- and this team is still riddled with question marks. The Grizzlies, on the other hand, know exactly what they are and what they aren't.
We'll find out pretty quickly what's what. The Lakers suck, but it was great getting the rest, because the Spurs are as healthy as they've been in a while. The Spurs came out flat, sick, and with Diaw and Splitter on the mend and got buzzed by a team that was playing with a world of confidence, and they managed to squash it with relative ease once they got their full roster back and playing their game. I said it in another thread, but just as the Spurs were built to lose to Memphis in 2011, as we all feared and knew, this year's team is built to dominate Memphis.


I hope beyond hope that you're dead wrong, and maybe hope is the only reason I'm saying what I'm saying. It feels like it makes sense. I'd love to see the Spurs have one last shot at the finals, but Miami doesn't look completely invincible. God damn, their interior defense is good, but the Bulls were a shell of themselves. Probably need to hope Wade isn't 100 percent to have a chance, but I think they can get that far.

[2centsworth]

I'll take Tony,Green and Khawi over Conley, Allen and Prince any day all day.

[ezau]

A Spurs team that started RJ, played Bonner heavy minutes, and featured a one-armed Manu took a superior version (IMO) of the Grizzlies to 6 games.

And now the vastly improved 2013 Spurs are supposed to be "overwhelming" underdogs against these guys? Not seeing it tbh.

This. I hate the fucking cliff-jumpers in this thread tbh. This team has gone through a lot against GSW, and yet they still closed them in 6 games. Spurs in 7.

[KaiRMD1]

Remember the true ex-factor: no RJ

[crc21209]

This series is going to be an absolute dog fight. The Spurs have to be ready to play stout team defense (especially on the interior) and gang rebound as well. I do think the Spurs are capable of winning this series though. The Spurs have a good balance of both offense and defense, while the Grizzlies are great on defense, but struggle to score points on the offensive end. And their guards are nowhere near the level of the guards of GS. Conley is good, and Bayless and Pondexter can hit outside shots, but that's about it. Tony Allen has an ugly jumper, and Tayshaun Prince isn't the Tayshaun Prince of 2005 anymore. Is he still good defensively? Sure. But you can live with him shooting mid-range jumpers...

[Austin_Toros]

Why is timvp trolling now?

[RD2191]

I also think Danny Green is the X factor against Memphis. If he can hit at least 3-4 3's a game, the games wont even be close. Mike Conley is also the Grizzlies 3rd highest scorer and 3rd offensive threat at 17 ppg in the post-season. We all know PG is the easiest position to shut down, if Green can carry his defensive effort into the Memphis series then the Spurs should roll.

[RuffnReadyOzStyle]

I see this series as a 50-50 proposition.

Conley is essential to the Grizz offence - how is he going to fare when we can throw Green/Leonard at him the whole time and hide TP on Allen?

Also, Splitter/Diaw defend Z-Bo well.

[hooperflash]

They beat Scott Brooks and Del Negro...

[Paulie]

Are you guys serious? I'm the biggest cliff jumper on this site and I have faith in the Spurs. Spurs in 4 or 5.


:lmao

[Gooshie]

Warriors were sneaky good all season defensively - 4th in the League in DFG% - and that was mostly without Bogut. So, it doesn't alarm me too much that the Spurs struggled to score at times.

What gives me hope is this: since halftime of Game 2, the Spurs either won or tied 15 out of the last 18 quarters vs. GS. So, even though it may not appear we're playing at an elite level, those numbers don't lie. 15 out of 18 is extremely hard to do - especially after the way we played in the first two games.

[capek]

Why is timvp trolling now?

It's the only explanation :lmao

[timvp]

I'll be quick because I want to finish the Grades ... but I couldn't resist responding...


Duncan looked bad at times, but he doesn't look injured, and he doesn't look spent.He doesn't look spent? In Game 5, he came out on fire but then quickly went down hill. Tonight, he had no legs at all in the fourth -- to the point Pop benched him. If he's ever looked "spent" in his career, it's right now.

Hopefully he's spent because he is forced to defend about 80 pick-and-rolls a game -- but he definitely looks spent.



Again, I don't see Parker limping or laboring. He's also not windedI disagree on all three counts. He has been limping and laboring since hurting his calf in Game 3. Tonight he had a major limp on his way back to the bench a few times. He fought through it but it's clear to me he's hurting. On top of that, he's been huffing and puffing so much that Pop has had to sub him in and out more than usual.

Again, hopefully it's just because this Warriors series was a peculiar one.


Sorry to belabor the point, but Manu's not limping, not putting his hands on his knees, and doesn't look winded, slowed or injured.Manu looks somewhere between 80-90% basing it on how great he looked during that two week span in the regular season when he was dunking left and right. He doesn't look bad right now but he's also cautious about his stops and starts due to his hamstrings.



So Green and Leonard are playing defense at an elite level, are hitting their threes again, are playing with confidence, rebounding the ball exceptionally well...and you're worried about that somehow?As I said, I'm worried their defense won't be utilized in this series.


I hope beyond hope that you're dead wrongAgreed. I can't express enough how thrilled I'd be at being dead wrong.

[Rob123]

Lakers series 2.0

Shut down the paint by fronting with leonard and green and make the grizz shoot threes.

[TE]

Am I the only one confident that Cory Joseph will spell Parker with some good minutes?

[GSH]

The Spurs and Griz split their 4 games this season, with the home team winning every game. Two of the games went to overtime, and a third was decided by just 2 points (a Memphis win). Only the Spurs managed a convincing win in the series, logging a 103-82 victory on Jan. 16.

In the January blowout victory, the Spurs were without Manu Ginobili, and in their OT victory in December they were without Kawhi Leonard. And in the Spurs' 92-90 loss on April Fool's Day, the Spurs were without Tim, Manu, and Kawhi.

In two of the four games, the Spurs tied Memphis for total rebounds. In one game, they out-rebounded Memphis by 1 board, and in one game the Spurs were out-rebounded by 4. In other words, the Spurs held their own in the rebound department, Gasol and Randolph notwithstanding. The Grizzlies did get more offensive rebounds that the Spurs in all four games, beating them by a margin of 2,2,3, and 5. But the Spurs still managed to outscore Memphis in the paint in their two victories.

The Spurs biggest problem against Memphis this year was turnovers, with the Spurs committing 16, 16, and 19 in three of the games. In their blowout victory, the Spurs only committed 13 TO's. If they take care of the ball, it's going to take away one of Memphis' biggest advantages.

Tony parker has scored 17, 25, 30, and 30 in each of the Spurs games against Memphis this season, on 36-71 shooting. Tony definitely looked beaten up tonight. I guess we'll see how much of that was the quicker defense of Golden State, and getting hammered against all those moving screens. There's no doubt that the Warrior's strategy was to stop Parker. But if Parker is healthy, I don't think the Griz have the personnel to do the same to him.

In the four games against the Spurs, Zach Randolph was just 21-58, while Gasol was 24-47. Someone started a thread about who is going to defend Randolph. The bigger question is who will defend Gasol?

The two big question marks, in my mind: Are the Big 3 really as gassed as it seems, or will they be able to play Memphis the way they have during the regular season. (Remember, they were without Manu one game, Kawhi another, and Manu, Kawhi, and Tim in a third.) And will the Spurs' role players step up to the level of the regular season?

I think you're right to have a healthy fear of Memphis. But based on what I see from their previous four meetings this season, the Griz aren't prohibitive favorites unless the Spurs turn out to be totally spent. And I think that after what Kawhi and Green have just been through, they are going to feel like the game is moving in slow motion. I fully expect them to bring Conley and Prince back down to Earth.

[Whisky Dog]

How will Green and Leonard's defense not be beneficial when both can probably make life hell for Conley for stretches? If they can dog down Curry and Thompson the way they did I don't see how they couldn't give Conley fits. Park Tony on Allen or any other of their non shooters at off guard and let him conserve energy for digging down on the ball in the post and on offense.

[mingus]

Our defense tonight was really something to watch. If that continues and with our offense, I can't see us not at least making every game competitive.

[Obstructed_View]

I'll be quick because I want to finish the Grades ... but I couldn't resist responding...

He doesn't look spent? In Game 5, he came out on fire but then quickly went down hill. Tonight, he had no legs at all in the fourth -- to the point Pop benched him. If he's ever looked "spent" in his career, it's right now.

Hopefully he's spent because he is forced to defend about 80 pick-and-rolls a game -- but he definitely looks spent.

I'll go back and watch, but I disagree. Bewildered? Yes. Tired of having to chase the children around the play room? Undoubtedly. Ready to play a regular basketball team again instead of a gimmicky outside offense? Absolutely. Spent? No way. Spent is him coming out scoring 12 points in the first quarter last year, and being unable to get a free throw to the rim by the 4th quarter because his body's not used to playing more than 25 minutes. His offense has been terrible but I'm going to chalk it up to the opponent until proven otherwise.

As for the rest, Parker and Manu are in better shape physically than they've been in the playoffs for years. Parker has a bruise that's going to heal further between now and Sunday, and rest days for Manu are only going to help his hammies. Both are making great decisions with the ball, and it's moving to everyone. We don't need heroics from either of them, particularly as well as Green and Kawhi are playing. If they trust the system, they're going to win this series.

This is another series where the Spurs' ability to take care of the ball and rebound is going to determine the outcome. Leonard could very conceivably feast offensively in this series, and Green is going to be open a lot. If he shoots with the same confidence he's been playing with, Memphis won't be able to generate enough possessions to make up for it because they don't shoot threes at all.

[Paulie]

Even if Duncan and Parker are tired, they have 2 days off before game 1, and a couple days off before game 3. Come in fresh and take care of business from the start.

[Whisky Dog]

A gassed Parker doesn't have it in him to nail 2 3s late in the 4th, especially on a terrible shooting night. He had to exert so much more energy on defense working to not give Curry any comfort space inside of 30 ft, or when not guarding Curry getting worked in the post banging with Barnes. Couple that with having to play against the length of Thompson all series and it was a hard series matchup for him.

[Spursfanfromafar]

What gives me hope is this: since halftime of Game 2, the Spurs either won or tied 15 out of the last 18 quarters vs. GS. So, even though it may not appear we're playing at an elite level, those numbers don't lie. 15 out of 18 is extremely hard to do - especially after the way we played in the first two games.

This. I do want to emphasise that the Spurs are getting quite at the level they played when they were at their best earlier this season. And that makes them favorites (slightly or a little bit more) against the Grizzlies despite the latter's much vaunted defense.

[GSH]

I'll be quick because I want to finish the Grades ... but I couldn't resist responding...

He doesn't look spent? In Game 5, he came out on fire but then quickly went down hill. Tonight, he had no legs at all in the fourth -- to the point Pop benched him. If he's ever looked "spent" in his career, it's right now.

Hopefully he's spent because he is forced to defend about 80 pick-and-rolls a game -- but he definitely looks spent.




Not only did he have to defend those PnR's, he got the shit beaten out of him by all the moving screens. I didn't say anything until the Spurs closed them out, but Tony is like a boxer who has had an opponent laying on him for 12 rounds. It tires you out.

Was he gassed at the end of the game? That corner 3 he made near the end rotated about 1 1/2 times on the way to the basket, and I don't think he even raised up onto his toes to shoot it. That's a guy who's gassed. The fact that he had the stones to even take the shot was amazing. And he had enough time to get both of his feet under him, and use whatever was left of his legs. But it wasn't much. He doesn't normally shoot knuckleballs from beyond the arc.

[T Park]

I fail to see how Green or Leonard can't be utilized against Mike Conley and Pondexter or play the passing lanes and distrupt Zbo and Gasol....

[chapnis]

Spurs paying 1.70, Griz paying 2.40. I'm not saying Spurs are gonna lose but those are some nice odds on the Griz from a neutral stand point.

[roycrikside]

I apologize in advance but my first reaction when thinking about the Spurs vs. Grizzlies is Memphis should be considered a heavy favorite. Right now, I'm thinking the Grizzlies in 5 or 6 is a pretty damn safe bet. I hate to be this pessimistic but I just don't see how the Spurs are going to win this series. Maybe someone can convince me otherwise but ...

1. Duncan isn't playing that well. He had trouble with Bogut and Marc Gasol is just a better version than Bogut. TD has had a great season but it's asking a ton for him to shine against the DPOY.

Your post is absurd for about 15 different reasons, but lets tackle them one by one. How well Duncan plays on offense really has nothing to do with who he's facing, which I realize is rare. Still, with all the pick-and-rolls the Spurs run, regardless of whether they face the best defensive team in the league or the worst, everybody gives Duncan that same 15-17 foot open shot. It's simply a matter of whether he knocks them down or not. If he hits enough of them, then people jump out at him and then he just pump fakes and gets to the rim. He's scored consistently on Gasol in the past and had a couple of big games against the Grizzlies this season, averaging 20 and 13 on nearly 53% shooting.



2. Parker is hurting. He had trouble scoring against a Warriors team with iffy defensive guards and limited bigs. What's going to happen against Conley -- arguably the best Parker defender in the league -- and a team with legit bigmen and other players with agile length? On paper, this looks like it'll be a disastrous series for TP unless he miraculously returns to health.

Neither Gasol nor Randolph are elite shot blockers. They have size, but Parker can still shoot his floater over them. Conley is good defensively, but Parker can still get to the hole and dish, even if he can't consistently finish. Like Duncan, for him it's all about whether he can hit that jumper. He'll get plenty of them.



3. Ginobili is no longer in the stage of his career where he can carry a team. And besides, going up against Tony Allen would be a tall task no matter his age.

Ginobili ruined Allen's shit two years ago playing with a broken arm. No, he's not the same player now, but, again, the initial defender doesn't matter all that much against Manu since he always relies on that screen anyway. With Manu it's about how well a defense plays as a team to cut off his penetration and how they play him on the pick-and-roll. I'm not saying he's going to have a big series vs. the Grizzlies or anything, but how well he plays will depend more on him and the Grizzlies bigs than Allen, tbh.



4. Splitter played a bit better today but he's still playing without physicality. He has trouble grabbing contested boards. He still has issues finishing in crowds. Those three faults play perfectly into the Grizzlies hands.

People haven't been very patient with Tiago even though he had a pretty bad sprained ankle. They wanted him to be 100% from the first game back. If you've been paying attention, he got better and better as the Warriors series went along and both his stats and the Warriors offensive stats reflected that. By the end, Pop relied on Tiago, not Tim down the stretch and we still won. No, Tiago is not physical, and he's not a great rebounder, but he's a very good defender as long as you don't pair him with Bonner. I think this series will be a great test for him, but it could be his coming out party.



5. Leonard and Green just came off of a GREAT defensive series -- but Memphis does their damage on the inside. There really won't be anyone for those two to shut down. Thus, it'll be much more difficult to impact the series.

Not having to do as much on their guys will just allow them that much more opportunity to freelance and disrupt Memphis' offense. Leonard, in particular, could wreak a lot of havoc with his ridiculous wingspan. Leonard could be the key guy in the series because if Pop wants to switch things up to go small, there's nobody on the Grizz to handle him, really. If Green doesn't play well, then Pop could turn to Manu more and he'll have the freedom to play Ginobili since there's no perimeter guy to wear him out on defense. More Ginobili on offense is never a bad thing. The Spurs have the THREE best wings in this series. That's a ridiculous luxury and it's ridiculous for you to dismiss that.



6. Diaw, Bonner and Blair are all poor matchups against a physical frontline.

And two of them won't play, duh. This isn't 2011. We're not this soft, punk-ass team that has to rely on RJ, Bonner and a broken down, undersized Antonio McDyess. We've got a second legit big in Splitter and some girth at the very least (and pretty quick feet) in Diaw. Again, if the bigs falter, we can go small. You can call the 2013 Spurs a lot of things, but they're not soft.



7. Neal's ballhandling and decision-making against that pressure defense? Yikes.

Pop has shown already Neal's leash will be very short. If he's not getting it done it'll either be a three-man rotation on the wings or possibly even McGrady, who's got size. We're not gonna depend on Neal to win or lose us games. Really, you're freaking out about the 9th and 10th men in the rotation.



8. Does Joseph have the experience to play in what is going to be a glorified back alley dogfight?

Scrappiness is the biggest strength of his game. Frankly I'd be a lot more worried about playing him against an offensive juggernaut team we have to match hoop for hoop than a rugged defensive team. This is Joseph's kind of party.



9. The Grizzlies are at the very least as good defensively as the Spurs. Most likely, they're better. San Antonio was superior offensively for the majority of this season -- but they've fallen off a cliff in the last couple months. That ball-movement that made this team special is mostly gone. They don't have much in terms of individual creators. The Grizzlies offense isn't awesome but their scoring, on paper at least, will be more reliable since it'll come on the inside. Add in the points they'll create by forcing turnovers and hitting the offensive glass -- and I can't make a strong case for the Spurs having a better offense or defense right now.

The Spurs starting five is the best defensive quintet in the league. It's kind of a secret because they only played 31 games together due to various injuries and only a 364 minute sample size, but their work together has been staggering. They allow 41% field goals, 32% from 3 and hardly ever foul. They're ridiculous. In fact, when you focus on just the 8-man rotation and throw out Bonner and Neal, the Spurs are as good as any defense in the league and probably better.

As far as offense goes, it's kind of amusing for you to harp on lack of ball movement when the team had 57 assists the past two games. The Spurs have MUCH better three point shooting than the Grizzlies. Also, Memphis struggled to run away from a one-man Thunder team whose best passer was Durant. Both Parker and Ginobili are way better passers than him and Duncan is far more of a post threat than anyone the Thunder had. Memphis' offensive limitations will insure that no matter how well they play, they won't really run away from the Spurs and we'll always be in games against them. One good run (which the Spurs always have in them) and we'll be tied or ahead.



10. We still really don't know how good the Spurs are at the moment. Should we take anything from sweeping the Lakers? Probably not. Is struggling with a Warriors team that was mediocre in the regular season a bad sign? Yeah, probably. Add in the poor way the Spurs ended the regular season -- and this team is still riddled with question marks. The Grizzlies, on the other hand, know exactly what they are and what they aren't.

I hope beyond hope that I'm dead wrong. I really, really, really want the Spurs to win this series. (In fact, just making it to the Finals would make my year; I wouldn't even care if the Spurs lost to the Heat -- I just want this team to make the Finals one last time.)

Hopefully there are a few pieces to the puzzle that I'm missing. Maybe one of you can give me some hope. Maybe when I crunch the numbers, I'll see it differently.

I want to believe -- but as I'm sitting here right now, I just can't do it by any logical means. I'm sorry.

You are making the mistake of judging them based on your most recent memories, and the most recent play of the Grizzlies and are not taking into account a number of factors.

1. The Spurs, the big three in particular, were EXHAUSTED down the stretch of this series, because the schedule of it was obscene. They played 6.3 games in 11 days, with four cross-country flights in between and a ridiculous Sunday afternoon tilt after a Friday night game. If Game 4 was played at night I have no doubt in my mind, none whatsoever that the Spurs would've won it easily and taken the series in five, and you'd have looked at them in a completely different light.

The Grizzlies on the other hand had more rest within their series and less travel, with short flights between Memphis and OKC. In this series the Spurs will get more breaks between the games and again the travel won't be as much of an issue, so the Spurs will look fresher.

2. You're also discounting the opponents. We beat (dominated really) a good Warriors team in the last four games of that series, the same Dubs who beat a very good Denver squad. While I agree that the Warriors weren't much of a squad for most of the regular season and that their coach Mark Jackson is mostly an overrated hype man, they lucked into their best team by having David Lee -- just an atrocious defender -- get injured vs. the Nuggets. If Lee had played big minutes vs. the Spurs our offense would've looked a lot better and really, in all likelihood we wouldn't have even faced the Warriors but rather the Nugs.

The Grizz on the other hand, grinded out four wins against a one-man team. Durant is very good, but he was playing with a pretty shoddy supporting cast and those games still went down to the wire.

3. You're severely underestimating Pop. I rail on Pop sometimes too, but I at least give him enough credit that I strongly doubt he's going to just stand there and let Randolph and Gasol run roughshod over the Spurs inside, especially when that club doesn't have a legit perimeter threat. The doubles will be comin' L.J., oh they'll be a comin.' If the Grizzlies are going to beat us, it will have to be with the shooting of guys like Bayless, Pondexter, Allen and Prince. We're not going to just let them set up camp inside the paint. That's silly. Both these teams are so well-founded defensively that they're going to make each other go to plan C, D, or E for points. The further down the list it goes, the better off we are, because we have better depth in scoring than the Grizzlies do, better shooters and better passers. Good ball movement is the enemy of any top-tier defense and the Spurs don't lack for guys who are ready and willing to pass.

4. We'll have home court advantage. Not something I'd dismiss so easily if I were you. Yeah, the Thunder got us in Game 5 and the Warriors in Game 2, but it's still better to have it than not. At the least the Spurs are always good for one massive run behind their home crowd every game.

5. Finally, we've got the ultimate motivator in revenge. The Grizzlies think they're the biggest and baddest team out there. We get to show them that the 2011 series was mostly a fluke. Ginobili had one arm and Leonard, Green and Splitter weren't around back then. The team is radically different. Again, I said it before, you can call these Spurs a lot of things, but they aren't soft. They're not going to be punked by some team that's "more physical." As we saw last season, if these Spurs lose, it will be to some club who flat out has more offensive talent and athleticism. That's not the Grizzlies.

[jiggy_55]

Lol so the Grizzlies beating a westbrook-less OKC makes them more tested? That's not a major achievement IMO

[Spurstalkin]

Some thoughts about why spurs should win this series.
I see conely or allen on Parker.. Parker shouldnt have much problems with this.. He should destroy the paint in this series.
Zbo will have trouble against spurs bigs.

Zbo - Splitter /Diaw
Gasol- Timmy
Conley-Leonard
Prince-Green/manu
Griz Bench-Spurs Bench?

If they are limited to outside shooting then this should be a short series..

Spurs vs Griz regular season 2-2 (spurs are longer and smaller than Griz)

Looks like a pretty decent match up.. Spurs look to have the edge if they can shoot decent... (Spurs need to get healed up)

Spurs in 5..

[TE]

Lol so the Grizzlies beating a westbrook-less OKC makes them more tested? That's not a major achievement IMO
Not too mention a Clippers team that was running on fumes...Memphis is one of the more overrated teams in some time tbh...

[Stabula]

Going to bump the shit out of this when the Spurs win in 5

[Russo21]

Get Fucked Timvp. Spurs in 4

[Obstructed_View]

Roy's convincing post is so far superior to mine it's redickulous tbh.

[Johnny RIngo]

Spurs will probably lose to the Grizzlies but timvp is overrating them quite a bit here. The way he talks about them, you'd think they were the Miami Heat.

[capek]

If Timvp's extreme pessimism turns out to be as wildly unfounded as some of us think, can he pink himself?


























I keed I keed, don't pink me please :lol

[Shaolin-Style]

I'm not seeing it as such a scary matchup. I don't see us getting abused on the inside like everyone is thinking. Gasol is a great defender but honestly Duncan doesn't have to do as much on offense and he can defend just as well.

[objective]

Here's my two cents fwiw. Keep in mind I was terribly wrong about how the GS series went.

I don't think the Spurs are in bad shape at all, and here's why:

TIAGO SPLITTER

The Spurs would have won in 2011 if Pop hadn't been destroying his own team's chances to win by dumping on Splitter the whole time. I remain 100% convinced that the Spurs win game 1 of that series, and the whole series, if Pop got over himself and played Splitter over Bonner and McDyess that year the entire time, even if it wasn't 'fair'.

Going back to last year, the Spurs are 7-0 in the playoffs when Splitter plays 20 minutes or more.

Because even when Splitter plays soft, gives up rebounds, or bricks junk shots from his waist while posting up midgets . . . the Spurs are still better with him than without him. He makes everything better.

If Splitter gets 24+ minutes a game this series, I am 100% convinced the Spurs win it. No doubt in my mind.

The only problem is Pop. Pop might screw it all up, that's the sad truth. For all his greatness, nobody's perfect, and Pop proves it.

Pop can also screw it up with more Bonner and Neal. Those guys can ruin even a Splitter outing.

If Pop plays Splitter, activates Baynes, and doesn't play Bonner or Neal, then I see the Spurs winning.

[-21-]

I agree with the OP.

I don't know why a lot of you think the Spurs will win easily. The Grizzlies should be given appropriate fear. They grit and grind, play physical, and are very scrappy. They will tire the Spurs out, especially the frontcourt which is soft and undersized. If the Spurs do beat them, it'll probably be in a tough 7 game series but I wouldn't be too optimistic about our chances.

[Danny.Zhu]

Grizz in 5 tbh.

[Big Empty]

1. Bonner wont see heavy minutes. 2. No rudy gay or mayo 3. Ginobili dont have a brokend arm 4. Gasol didnt deserve dpoy. 5. We shoot better

[Paulie]

Your post is absurd for about 15 different reasons, but lets tackle them one by one. How well Duncan plays on offense really has nothing to do with who he's facing, which I realize is rare. Still, with all the pick-and-rolls the Spurs run, regardless of whether they face the best defensive team in the league or the worst, everybody gives Duncan that same 15-17 foot open shot. It's simply a matter of whether he knocks them down or not. If he hits enough of them, then people jump out at him and then he just pump fakes and gets to the rim. He's scored consistently on Gasol in the past and had a couple of big games against the Grizzlies this season, averaging 20 and 13 on nearly 53% shooting.



Neither Gasol nor Randolph are elite shot blockers. They have size, but Parker can still shoot his floater over them. Conley is good defensively, but Parker can still get to the hole and dish, even if he can't consistently finish. Like Duncan, for him it's all about whether he can hit that jumper. He'll get plenty of them.



Ginobili ruined Allen's shit two years ago playing with a broken arm. No, he's not the same player now, but, again, the initial defender doesn't matter all that much against Manu since he always relies on that screen anyway. With Manu it's about how well a defense plays as a team to cut off his penetration and how they play him on the pick-and-roll. I'm not saying he's going to have a big series vs. the Grizzlies or anything, but how well he plays will depend more on him and the Grizzlies bigs than Allen, tbh.



People haven't been very patient with Tiago even though he had a pretty bad sprained ankle. They wanted him to be 100% from the first game back. If you've been paying attention, he got better and better as the Warriors series went along and both his stats and the Warriors offensive stats reflected that. By the end, Pop relied on Tiago, not Tim down the stretch and we still won. No, Tiago is not physical, and he's not a great rebounder, but he's a very good defender as long as you don't pair him with Bonner. I think this series will be a great test for him, but it could be his coming out party.



Not having to do as much on their guys will just allow them that much more opportunity to freelance and disrupt Memphis' offense. Leonard, in particular, could wreak a lot of havoc with his ridiculous wingspan. Leonard could be the key guy in the series because if Pop wants to switch things up to go small, there's nobody on the Grizz to handle him, really. If Green doesn't play well, then Pop could turn to Manu more and he'll have the freedom to play Ginobili since there's no perimeter guy to wear him out on defense. More Ginobili on offense is never a bad thing. The Spurs have the THREE best wings in this series. That's a ridiculous luxury and it's ridiculous for you to dismiss that.



And two of them won't play, duh. This isn't 2011. We're not this soft, punk-ass team that has to rely on RJ, Bonner and a broken down, undersized Antonio McDyess. We've got a second legit big in Splitter and some girth at the very least (and pretty quick feet) in Diaw. Again, if the bigs falter, we can go small. You can call the 2013 Spurs a lot of things, but they're not soft.



Pop has shown already Neal's leash will be very short. If he's not getting it done it'll either be a three-man rotation on the wings or possibly even McGrady, who's got size. We're not gonna depend on Neal to win or lose us games. Really, you're freaking out about the 9th and 10th men in the rotation.



Scrappiness is the biggest strength of his game. Frankly I'd be a lot more worried about playing him against an offensive juggernaut team we have to match hoop for hoop than a rugged defensive team. This is Joseph's kind of party.



The Spurs starting five is the best defensive quintet in the league. It's kind of a secret because they only played 31 games together due to various injuries and only a 364 minute sample size, but their work together has been staggering. They allow 41% field goals, 32% from 3 and hardly ever foul. They're ridiculous. In fact, when you focus on just the 8-man rotation and throw out Bonner and Neal, the Spurs are as good as any defense in the league and probably better.

As far as offense goes, it's kind of amusing for you to harp on lack of ball movement when the team had 57 assists the past two games. The Spurs have MUCH better three point shooting than the Grizzlies. Also, Memphis struggled to run away from a one-man Thunder team whose best passer was Durant. Both Parker and Ginobili are way better passers than him and Duncan is far more of a post threat than anyone the Thunder had. Memphis' offensive limitations will insure that no matter how well they play, they won't really run away from the Spurs and we'll always be in games against them. One good run (which the Spurs always have in them) and we'll be tied or ahead.



You are making the mistake of judging them based on your most recent memories, and the most recent play of the Grizzlies and are not taking into account a number of factors.

1. The Spurs, the big three in particular, were EXHAUSTED down the stretch of this series, because the schedule of it was obscene. They played 6.3 games in 11 days, with four cross-country flights in between and a ridiculous Sunday afternoon tilt after a Friday night game. If Game 4 was played at night I have no doubt in my mind, none whatsoever that the Spurs would've won it easily and taken the series in five, and you'd have looked at them in a completely different light.

The Grizzlies on the other hand had more rest within their series and less travel, with short flights between Memphis and OKC. In this series the Spurs will get more breaks between the games and again the travel won't be as much of an issue, so the Spurs will look fresher.

2. You're also discounting the opponents. We beat (dominated really) a good Warriors team in the last four games of that series, the same Dubs who beat a very good Denver squad. While I agree that the Warriors weren't much of a squad for most of the regular season and that their coach Mark Jackson is mostly an overrated hype man, they lucked into their best team by having David Lee -- just an atrocious defender -- get injured vs. the Nuggets. If Lee had played big minutes vs. the Spurs our offense would've looked a lot better and really, in all likelihood we wouldn't have even faced the Warriors but rather the Nugs.

The Grizz on the other hand, grinded out four wins against a one-man team. Durant is very good, but he was playing with a pretty shoddy supporting cast and those games still went down to the wire.

3. You're severely underestimating Pop. I rail on Pop sometimes too, but I at least give him enough credit that I strongly doubt he's going to just stand there and let Randolph and Gasol run roughshod over the Spurs inside, especially when that club doesn't have a legit perimeter threat. The doubles will be comin' L.J., oh they'll be a comin.' If the Grizzlies are going to beat us, it will have to be with the shooting of guys like Bayless, Pondexter, Allen and Prince. We're not going to just let them set up camp inside the paint. That's silly. Both these teams are so well-founded defensively that they're going to make each other go to plan C, D, or E for points. The further down the list it goes, the better off we are, because we have better depth in scoring than the Grizzlies do, better shooters and better passers. Good ball movement is the enemy of any top-tier defense and the Spurs don't lack for guys who are ready and willing to pass.

4. We'll have home court advantage. Not something I'd dismiss so easily if I were you. Yeah, the Thunder got us in Game 5 and the Warriors in Game 2, but it's still better to have it than not. At the least the Spurs are always good for one massive run behind their home crowd every game.

5. Finally, we've got the ultimate motivator in revenge. The Grizzlies think they're the biggest and baddest team out there. We get to show them that the 2011 series was mostly a fluke. Ginobili had one arm and Leonard, Green and Splitter weren't around back then. The team is radically different. Again, I said it before, you can call these Spurs a lot of things, but they aren't soft. They're not going to be punked by some team that's "more physical." As we saw last season, if these Spurs lose, it will be to some club who flat out has more offensive talent and athleticism. That's not the Grizzlies.



The damn goods :tu




Here's my two cents fwiw. Keep in mind I was terribly wrong about how the GS series went.

I don't think the Spurs are in bad shape at all, and here's why:

TIAGO SPLITTER

The Spurs would have won in 2011 if Pop hadn't been destroying his own team's chances to win by dumping on Splitter the whole time. I remain 100% convinced that the Spurs win game 1 of that series, and the whole series, if Pop got over himself and played Splitter over Bonner and McDyess that year the entire time, even if it wasn't 'fair'.

Going back to last year, the Spurs are 7-0 in the playoffs when Splitter plays 20 minutes or more.

Because even when Splitter plays soft, gives up rebounds, or bricks junk shots from his waist while posting up midgets . . . the Spurs are still better with him than without him. He makes everything better.

If Splitter gets 24+ minutes a game this series, I am 100% convinced the Spurs win it. No doubt in my mind.

The only problem is Pop. Pop might screw it all up, that's the sad truth. For all his greatness, nobody's perfect, and Pop proves it.

Pop can also screw it up with more Bonner and Neal. Those guys can ruin even a Splitter outing.

If Pop plays Splitter, activates Baynes, and doesn't play Bonner or Neal, then I see the Spurs winning.


I agree 100%. It's about how Pop plays this. That would be our downfall if he plays Bonner and Neal too much and not enough Splitta :tu

[Big Empty]

Spurs in 5

[Brazil]

Grizz are the favorites in the wcf, no question

[FkLA]

Does Parker ever just struggle? Or is he automatically hobbled every time hes not playing well or being aggressive ?

[naico]

Problem is we only have one player that can match Memphis' energy and that's Leonard. This is going to be a very frustrating series for any spurs fan to watch. We'll see a lot of dirt down low. Grabbing, holding, flopping, offensive rebounds, 50-50 calls against us...I actually think Diaw could play a big role here, but then he needs to be aggressive on offense

[Chief]

The grizzlies had rudy gay, now they do not. Spurs sweeped a team with 2 7 footers in the lakers, granted it is not the same type of matchup but I honestly do think we have the better team. Spurs might not have youth but they certainly have heart. The warriors got hot at the right time, I mean stephen curry was shooting like 60% that first game ? then in the 2nd game klay thompson went off, after that Harrison Barnes went off, in game 6 tony parker shot what like 20% ? and Manu the same ? and we won ? Spurs in 6.

[chapnis]

Grizzlies aren't very talented, to win the Spurs "only" have to shut down their bigs.

[benefactor]

Neither team is really an overwhelming favorite in this series tbh. It's tough to call standing back and looking at it because good arguments can be made to support both(Memphis barely getting wins over a broken OKC, Spurs having the gas tank/health to make it through the pounding of what is shaping up to be a very physical series). Neither team is the same as they were in the first playoff meeting. One thing is for sure, the schedule highly favors the Spurs. Not only do the days off give the Spurs rest time before going to Memphis...it gives plenty of time to look closely at the first two games and make adjustments if needed. I don't think the series will really begin until they get to Memphis.

[Horse]

Grizz look good right now cause they just played a one-man team. We have owned them lately and owe those fuckers. Let's see randolph shot his luck chucks over Duncan who's bigger than him. Splitter will hold his own against gaysol. Then conley is the only other concern. Our bench is better our offense is way better and our D is almost as good as their when we're looked in. It won't be easy but memphis is just the flavor of the week at the moment. I think everyone is forgetting how good golden state really is, remember denver was the team no one wanted to play and they handled them fairly easy.

[exstatic]

I apologize in advance but my first reaction when thinking about the Spurs vs. Grizzlies is Memphis should be considered a heavy favorite. Right now, I'm thinking the Grizzlies in 5 or 6 is a pretty damn safe bet. I hate to be this pessimistic but I just don't see how the Spurs are going to win this series. Maybe someone can convince me otherwise but ...

1. Duncan isn't playing that well. He had trouble with Bogut and Marc Gasol is just a better version than Bogut. TD has had a great season but it's asking a ton for him to shine against the DPOY.

2. Parker is hurting. He had trouble scoring against a Warriors team with iffy defensive guards and limited bigs. What's going to happen against Conley -- arguably the best Parker defender in the league -- and a team with legit bigmen and other players with agile length? On paper, this looks like it'll be a disastrous series for TP unless he miraculously returns to health.

3. Ginobili is no longer in the stage of his career where he can carry a team. And besides, going up against Tony Allen would be a tall task no matter his age.

4. Splitter played a bit better today but he's still playing without physicality. He has trouble grabbing contested boards. He still has issues finishing in crowds. Those three faults play perfectly into the Grizzlies hands.

5. Leonard and Green just came off of a GREAT defensive series -- but Memphis does their damage on the inside. There really won't be anyone for those two to shut down. Thus, it'll be much more difficult to impact the series.

6. Diaw, Bonner and Blair are all poor matchups against a physical frontline.

7. Neal's ballhandling and decision-making against that pressure defense? Yikes.

8. Does Joseph have the experience to play in what is going to be a glorified back alley dogfight?

9. The Grizzlies are at the very least as good defensively as the Spurs. Most likely, they're better. San Antonio was superior offensively for the majority of this season -- but they've fallen off a cliff in the last couple months. That ball-movement that made this team special is mostly gone. They don't have much in terms of individual creators. The Grizzlies offense isn't awesome but their scoring, on paper at least, will be more reliable since it'll come on the inside. Add in the points they'll create by forcing turnovers and hitting the offensive glass -- and I can't make a strong case for the Spurs having a better offense or defense right now.

10. We still really don't know how good the Spurs are at the moment. Should we take anything from sweeping the Lakers? Probably not. Is struggling with a Warriors team that was mediocre in the regular season a bad sign? Yeah, probably. Add in the poor way the Spurs ended the regular season -- and this team is still riddled with question marks. The Grizzlies, on the other hand, know exactly what they are and what they aren't.




I hope beyond hope that I'm dead wrong. I really, really, really want the Spurs to win this series. (In fact, just making it to the Finals would make my year; I wouldn't even care if the Spurs lost to the Heat -- I just want this team to make the Finals one last time.)

Hopefully there are a few pieces to the puzzle that I'm missing. Maybe one of you can give me some hope. Maybe when I crunch the numbers, I'll see it differently.

I want to believe -- but as I'm sitting here right now, I just can't do it by any logical means. I'm sorry.

Grizz can't shoot. ZBo, while still good, likely will not be a blender mix of Rodman and Nowitzki this series.

[John B]

I believe Grizz is a better match-up to us than Warriors. Will go back to playing bigs and slowing the tempo. It starts with D. Our interior D is much better than in 2011 with the improvement of Splitter, addition of Diaw and even Baynes. Green and Leonard's lock-on D improved in the Warriors series, and both should be able to check Conley. So if we can keep them in below 80's I think we have enough firepower to beat them. Besides I'm sure the Spurs still has the bad taste of 2011 defeat and AT&T center would be louder than ever. Spurs in 6. Go Spurs Go!

[Spur|n|Austin]

Timvp starting a cliff jump thread before even one game!? You're better than that LJ! Keep the faith, we got this!

I like our chances for the main reason that we can out score them, while our D can play tough and physical against their bigs. Sounds elementary, but those are facts.

[rmt]

One thing going in the Spurs advantage is that they've had the perfect tune-up to deal with the Grizzlies.

Pau Gasol and Dwight Howard presented the over-whelming inside presence that will rear it's head again against the Griz. That being said, Pau and Cryight are arguably a more dominating duo than Marc and Zbo, and the Spurs were able to counter that with a good strategy of doubling and trapping. The same strategy can be employed against Memphis, who are just as impotent with their outside shooting as the Lakers were. If they make shots from the arc, you tip the hat.

The Warriors, on the other hand, prepared the Spurs for defending a perimeter attack and dealing with a high scoring team. While the strategy won't really carry over, it builds the team's confidence that if they can drag down a team that is used to scoring 105 ppg, they can surely lock down a team that struggles to break 85. It will be a defensive battle, to be sure. I'm expecting some ugly games. But the Spurs have the advantage offensively, and I don't see the Grizzlies defensive prowess being enough to overcome that difference.

Finally, 2011 obviously lingers in Spurs fans minds when going up against the Grizzlies. However, as well as ZBo has played, he isn't at the same unconscious level that he was at during 8. Same goes for Gasol. Arthur seems to have regressed, and they don't have Battier there anymore to lock down the perimeter. Personally, I am hoping that the theory of lightning not striking the same place twice will work in the Spurs favor.

I disagree with the LAL similarity. Guarding DH was easy because he can't shoot a jumper or foul shot - just foul him when he's going up with the ball near the basket. Neither MG or Zach has that problem. The smalls won't be able to dig or foul as they did with DH. Spurs will have to REBOUND, REBOUND, REBOUND and push the pace to get easy points before their defense sets up in the half court. TD and TG better be ready - IMO, series rests on them rebounding and defending MG and ZR - Spurs have the advantage everywhere else.

[AFBlue]

Giving too much credit to two players tbh. Between Parker, Green and Kawhi the Spurs should be able to limit Conley and focus on help/team D for the inside players. That leaves Pop to game plan for two big guys...something we've seen in these playoffs already. Don't get me wrong it's a talented front line, just not much else.

In order to be successful:

1. Parker/Green/Leonard will need to lock down Conley
2. Splitter will need to up his physicality on both ends
3. Big 3 will need to force the issue inside offensively
4. Bonner, Neal, and Green will need to hit the wide open shots off penetration.

I think the Spurs can and will do those things consistently enough to take four games in this series before Memphis does...though it may take them to Game 7 to get there.

[The Reckoning]

probably the best argument is that all of the WC teams suck

[TJastal]

Your post is absurd for about 15 different reasons, but lets tackle them one by one. How well Duncan plays on offense really has nothing to do with who he's facing, which I realize is rare. Still, with all the pick-and-rolls the Spurs run, regardless of whether they face the best defensive team in the league or the worst, everybody gives Duncan that same 15-17 foot open shot. It's simply a matter of whether he knocks them down or not. If he hits enough of them, then people jump out at him and then he just pump fakes and gets to the rim. He's scored consistently on Gasol in the past and had a couple of big games against the Grizzlies this season, averaging 20 and 13 on nearly 53% shooting.



Neither Gasol nor Randolph are elite shot blockers. They have size, but Parker can still shoot his floater over them. Conley is good defensively, but Parker can still get to the hole and dish, even if he can't consistently finish. Like Duncan, for him it's all about whether he can hit that jumper. He'll get plenty of them.



Ginobili ruined Allen's shit two years ago playing with a broken arm. No, he's not the same player now, but, again, the initial defender doesn't matter all that much against Manu since he always relies on that screen anyway. With Manu it's about how well a defense plays as a team to cut off his penetration and how they play him on the pick-and-roll. I'm not saying he's going to have a big series vs. the Grizzlies or anything, but how well he plays will depend more on him and the Grizzlies bigs than Allen, tbh.



People haven't been very patient with Tiago even though he had a pretty bad sprained ankle. They wanted him to be 100% from the first game back. If you've been paying attention, he got better and better as the Warriors series went along and both his stats and the Warriors offensive stats reflected that. By the end, Pop relied on Tiago, not Tim down the stretch and we still won. No, Tiago is not physical, and he's not a great rebounder, but he's a very good defender as long as you don't pair him with Bonner. I think this series will be a great test for him, but it could be his coming out party.



Not having to do as much on their guys will just allow them that much more opportunity to freelance and disrupt Memphis' offense. Leonard, in particular, could wreak a lot of havoc with his ridiculous wingspan. Leonard could be the key guy in the series because if Pop wants to switch things up to go small, there's nobody on the Grizz to handle him, really. If Green doesn't play well, then Pop could turn to Manu more and he'll have the freedom to play Ginobili since there's no perimeter guy to wear him out on defense. More Ginobili on offense is never a bad thing. The Spurs have the THREE best wings in this series. That's a ridiculous luxury and it's ridiculous for you to dismiss that.



And two of them won't play, duh. This isn't 2011. We're not this soft, punk-ass team that has to rely on RJ, Bonner and a broken down, undersized Antonio McDyess. We've got a second legit big in Splitter and some girth at the very least (and pretty quick feet) in Diaw. Again, if the bigs falter, we can go small. You can call the 2013 Spurs a lot of things, but they're not soft.



Pop has shown already Neal's leash will be very short. If he's not getting it done it'll either be a three-man rotation on the wings or possibly even McGrady, who's got size. We're not gonna depend on Neal to win or lose us games. Really, you're freaking out about the 9th and 10th men in the rotation.



Scrappiness is the biggest strength of his game. Frankly I'd be a lot more worried about playing him against an offensive juggernaut team we have to match hoop for hoop than a rugged defensive team. This is Joseph's kind of party.



The Spurs starting five is the best defensive quintet in the league. It's kind of a secret because they only played 31 games together due to various injuries and only a 364 minute sample size, but their work together has been staggering. They allow 41% field goals, 32% from 3 and hardly ever foul. They're ridiculous. In fact, when you focus on just the 8-man rotation and throw out Bonner and Neal, the Spurs are as good as any defense in the league and probably better.

As far as offense goes, it's kind of amusing for you to harp on lack of ball movement when the team had 57 assists the past two games. The Spurs have MUCH better three point shooting than the Grizzlies. Also, Memphis struggled to run away from a one-man Thunder team whose best passer was Durant. Both Parker and Ginobili are way better passers than him and Duncan is far more of a post threat than anyone the Thunder had. Memphis' offensive limitations will insure that no matter how well they play, they won't really run away from the Spurs and we'll always be in games against them. One good run (which the Spurs always have in them) and we'll be tied or ahead.



You are making the mistake of judging them based on your most recent memories, and the most recent play of the Grizzlies and are not taking into account a number of factors.

1. The Spurs, the big three in particular, were EXHAUSTED down the stretch of this series, because the schedule of it was obscene. They played 6.3 games in 11 days, with four cross-country flights in between and a ridiculous Sunday afternoon tilt after a Friday night game. If Game 4 was played at night I have no doubt in my mind, none whatsoever that the Spurs would've won it easily and taken the series in five, and you'd have looked at them in a completely different light.

The Grizzlies on the other hand had more rest within their series and less travel, with short flights between Memphis and OKC. In this series the Spurs will get more breaks between the games and again the travel won't be as much of an issue, so the Spurs will look fresher.

2. You're also discounting the opponents. We beat (dominated really) a good Warriors team in the last four games of that series, the same Dubs who beat a very good Denver squad. While I agree that the Warriors weren't much of a squad for most of the regular season and that their coach Mark Jackson is mostly an overrated hype man, they lucked into their best team by having David Lee -- just an atrocious defender -- get injured vs. the Nuggets. If Lee had played big minutes vs. the Spurs our offense would've looked a lot better and really, in all likelihood we wouldn't have even faced the Warriors but rather the Nugs.

The Grizz on the other hand, grinded out four wins against a one-man team. Durant is very good, but he was playing with a pretty shoddy supporting cast and those games still went down to the wire.

3. You're severely underestimating Pop. I rail on Pop sometimes too, but I at least give him enough credit that I strongly doubt he's going to just stand there and let Randolph and Gasol run roughshod over the Spurs inside, especially when that club doesn't have a legit perimeter threat. The doubles will be comin' L.J., oh they'll be a comin.' If the Grizzlies are going to beat us, it will have to be with the shooting of guys like Bayless, Pondexter, Allen and Prince. We're not going to just let them set up camp inside the paint. That's silly. Both these teams are so well-founded defensively that they're going to make each other go to plan C, D, or E for points. The further down the list it goes, the better off we are, because we have better depth in scoring than the Grizzlies do, better shooters and better passers. Good ball movement is the enemy of any top-tier defense and the Spurs don't lack for guys who are ready and willing to pass.

4. We'll have home court advantage. Not something I'd dismiss so easily if I were you. Yeah, the Thunder got us in Game 5 and the Warriors in Game 2, but it's still better to have it than not. At the least the Spurs are always good for one massive run behind their home crowd every game.

5. Finally, we've got the ultimate motivator in revenge. The Grizzlies think they're the biggest and baddest team out there. We get to show them that the 2011 series was mostly a fluke. Ginobili had one arm and Leonard, Green and Splitter weren't around back then. The team is radically different. Again, I said it before, you can call these Spurs a lot of things, but they aren't soft. They're not going to be punked by some team that's "more physical." As we saw last season, if these Spurs lose, it will be to some club who flat out has more offensive talent and athleticism. That's not the Grizzlies.

:clap :cheer :tu

Great post. How are you not at the very least a 3rd team all ST? Agreed. Spurs are going to make short work of this grizz team as long as Pop doesn't get any more funny ideas about playing small/bonnerball.

[elbamba]

The Spurs need to target 95 points every game. If they score 95, I believe they win. Its going to take good performances from Tiago, Green and most importantly Leonard.

The Spurs will need better bench production. Guys like Arthur come in and hit jumpers so Pop cannot go with Bonner on him. Diaw will need to be in there and will need to match him point for point. If the bench can play like they did during the regular season, this will take an enormous amount of pressure off the starters and the Spurs will be in great shape.

Although Splitter has been somewhat weak on his rebounding, his defense, especailly his team defense has been pretty good. He is looking a little more mobile and like he has his footwork back. I expect him to have a good series, but the Spurs cannot turn to Blair if Splitter lets up. This is a series where Baynes might need to see 8-10 minutes of action to counter the Grizzley size.

I like the Spurs chances and think that the Grizzlies were the beneficiaries of a weak sauce LA team and an injured OKC team. Just like the Spurs, they took advantage of the weak and injured teams. I do not think they are playing any better than the Spurs, at least from what I have watched of their games.

[Fabbs]

Your post is absurd for about 15 different reasons, but lets tackle them one by one.
OPs bar lowering suggestion that Spurs have reached expectation level. :rolleyes
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TZjpnXcGZ9w

[Fabbs]

Here's my two cents fwiw. Keep in mind I was terribly wrong about how the GS series went.

I don't think the Spurs are in bad shape at all, and here's why:

TIAGO SPLITTER

The Spurs would have won in 2011 if Pop hadn't been destroying his own team's chances to win by dumping on Splitter the whole time. I remain 100% convinced that the Spurs win game 1 of that series, and the whole series, if Pop got over himself and played Splitter over Bonner and McDyess that year the entire time, even if it wasn't 'fair'.

Going back to last year, the Spurs are 7-0 in the playoffs when Splitter plays 20 minutes or more.

Because even when Splitter plays soft, gives up rebounds, or bricks junk shots from his waist while posting up midgets . . . the Spurs are still better with him than without him. He makes everything better.

If Splitter gets 24+ minutes a game this series, I am 100% convinced the Spurs win it. No doubt in my mind.

The only problem is Pop. Pop might screw it all up, that's the sad truth. For all his greatness, nobody's perfect, and Pop proves it.

Pop can also screw it up with more Bonner and Neal. Those guys can ruin even a Splitter outing.

If Pop plays Splitter, activates Baynes, and doesn't play Bonner or Neal, then I see the Spurs winning.
Yep.

[coachmac87]

1. Experience- This team was here last year and I think that experience is going to be HUGE! It's probably the biggest advantage the spurs have. Don't ever under estimate heart of champion..

2. Our best > their best- Spurs have 57 assists on their last 73fgs. That's Spurs basketball and when move the ball like that..almost impossible to beat..Spurs defense also improved and shut down one of the hottest offensive teams in the PO..

3. Big shots- I'm not quite sure who can or will hit big shots for the Grizz..Randolph?? Spurs aren't going to let him beat them. Conley, Prince , Bayless and Allen will have to hit jumpers. Can they?? Spurs role players have been damn good lately on hitting key jump shots

[admiralfats]

Did not read most of the thread, but Zach Randolph ain't 100% either from what I've seen and he just did OK r subpar in most games against Kendrick Perkins and ibaka, who really aren't that great. I think if tiago and Duncan can play gasol and zbo close to even or even below even, other guys just gotta win their matchups. If Duncan be best or 2nd best big in this series? If kawhi kills tayshaun? And really, if tony gets the best of Conley then we've got a great chance. People have mentioned we shoot 3s way better, however they will focus on running us off those threes. I think we need to be diligent and creative in getting all the way to the paint and trying to force fouls. Also making Zbo move on defense by pick and rolling him, and throwing in some bonner possibly could result in some good floor spacing.

[Old School 44]

Round 2, Game 1, and the Golden State series as a whole will be looked upon as the turning point in the playoffs for this years Spurs.
The Spurs defense was incredible in the latter part of the series. Green and Leonard did a lot of growing up in that series. Spurs have multiple defensive weapons to shut down Conley and the offensive players to make him work on D. Pack the paint, have the guards dig on Gasol and ZBo in the post and we should be fine.

The BIGGEST factor for believing the Spurs will defeat the Grizzlies is this: Tim, Manu, Tony and Pop know their championship window is closing. This may be their last chance to get to the finals. Last year, they were rolling and really not tested going into WCF against the Thunder. That combined with a hot shooting Thunder team, left a bad taste in their mouths. This year, the Warriors were just what the Spurs needed - a test going against a loose young team with nothing to lose. The darlings of the playoffs. I also like that the media (and some Spurstalkers) are favoring the Grizzlies. Love the underdog role for these Spurs.

[admiralfats]

If we just run this play, we should be fine: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SCLW10KUt0M

(Can't believe no one else posted this)

[biskvito]

Didn't Splitter shut down the paint against Memphis, before the injury when he was playing 25+ min?

I think Tiago playing will define Spurs fate in this series. If he keeps out of foul trouble and still play that kind of defense Spurs are pretty good in the series.

Also Baynes needs to show up.

[sehui]

Round 2, Game 1, and the Golden State series as a whole will be looked upon as the turning point in the playoffs for this years Spurs.
The Spurs defense was incredible in the latter part of the series. Green and Leonard did a lot of growing up in that series. Spurs have multiple defensive weapons to shut down Conley and the offensive players to make him work on D. Pack the paint, have the guards dig on Gasol and ZBo in the post and we should be fine.

The BIGGEST factor for believing the Spurs will defeat the Grizzlies is this: Tim, Manu, Tony and Pop know their championship window is closing. This may be their last chance to get to the finals. Last year, they were rolling and really not tested going into WCF against the Thunder. That combined with a hot shooting Thunder team, left a bad taste in their mouths. This year, the Warriors were just what the Spurs needed - a test going against a loose young team with nothing to lose. The darlings of the playoffs. I also like that the media (and some Spurstalkers) are favoring the Grizzlies. Love the underdog role for these Spurs.


I believe the Spurs will beat the Grizzlies, but your point is moot and a bad example on why they will win.

The big 3 and Pop have known their window has been closing for the past 5 years. You really didn't think they didn't consider that thought last year as well? The reason we will win is because we are a much better team from last year and 2011. We have a lot more offensive options, and a stronger defense.

[Spurs and Mavs fan]

I haven't read any threads before about a No. 5 seed playing a No. 2 seed and people asking why they should be convinced that the No. 5 seed shouldn't be the overwhelming favorite.

[Russ]

Hopefully there are a few pieces to the puzzle that I'm missing. Maybe one of you can give me some hope.

Hey, at least the Spurs should have "appropriate fear." :toast

[dbestpro]

Hey, at least the Spurs should have "appropriate fear." :toast

Best post in the thread.

[bigfan]

Grizz will be very tough, no doubt. For us to win we need to outmuscle their bigs ( a tall order) and stay hot with Green and Leonard. My X factors will be Neal (we need him now) and maybe even Bayne.

[tlongII]

I apologize in advance but my first reaction when thinking about the Spurs vs. Grizzlies is Memphis should be considered a heavy favorite. Right now, I'm thinking the Grizzlies in 5 or 6 is a pretty damn safe bet. I hate to be this pessimistic but I just don't see how the Spurs are going to win this series. Maybe someone can convince me otherwise but ...

1. Duncan isn't playing that well. He had trouble with Bogut and Marc Gasol is just a better version than Bogut. TD has had a great season but it's asking a ton for him to shine against the DPOY.

2. Parker is hurting. He had trouble scoring against a Warriors team with iffy defensive guards and limited bigs. What's going to happen against Conley -- arguably the best Parker defender in the league -- and a team with legit bigmen and other players with agile length? On paper, this looks like it'll be a disastrous series for TP unless he miraculously returns to health.

3. Ginobili is no longer in the stage of his career where he can carry a team. And besides, going up against Tony Allen would be a tall task no matter his age.

4. Splitter played a bit better today but he's still playing without physicality. He has trouble grabbing contested boards. He still has issues finishing in crowds. Those three faults play perfectly into the Grizzlies hands.

5. Leonard and Green just came off of a GREAT defensive series -- but Memphis does their damage on the inside. There really won't be anyone for those two to shut down. Thus, it'll be much more difficult to impact the series.

6. Diaw, Bonner and Blair are all poor matchups against a physical frontline.

7. Neal's ballhandling and decision-making against that pressure defense? Yikes.

8. Does Joseph have the experience to play in what is going to be a glorified back alley dogfight?

9. The Grizzlies are at the very least as good defensively as the Spurs. Most likely, they're better. San Antonio was superior offensively for the majority of this season -- but they've fallen off a cliff in the last couple months. That ball-movement that made this team special is mostly gone. They don't have much in terms of individual creators. The Grizzlies offense isn't awesome but their scoring, on paper at least, will be more reliable since it'll come on the inside. Add in the points they'll create by forcing turnovers and hitting the offensive glass -- and I can't make a strong case for the Spurs having a better offense or defense right now.

10. We still really don't know how good the Spurs are at the moment. Should we take anything from sweeping the Lakers? Probably not. Is struggling with a Warriors team that was mediocre in the regular season a bad sign? Yeah, probably. Add in the poor way the Spurs ended the regular season -- and this team is still riddled with question marks. The Grizzlies, on the other hand, know exactly what they are and what they aren't.




I hope beyond hope that I'm dead wrong. I really, really, really want the Spurs to win this series. (In fact, just making it to the Finals would make my year; I wouldn't even care if the Spurs lost to the Heat -- I just want this team to make the Finals one last time.)

Hopefully there are a few pieces to the puzzle that I'm missing. Maybe one of you can give me some hope. Maybe when I crunch the numbers, I'll see it differently.

I want to believe -- but as I'm sitting here right now, I just can't do it by any logical means. I'm sorry.

I agree with all the points in this post. :tu

[EVAY]

I don't know who is going to win this series. I hope it is us. It might be the Grizz, but I don't see them as overwhelming favorites.

Expectations

1. The games will be decided in the post. Their bigs versus our bigs. Their bigs are huge and mean and I fear for our bigs' health against them

HOWEVER, if their bigs get in foul trouble, we will win.

2. Rebounding will be key also and I don't know if we can win that battle.

3. If Tony's jump shot is falling, we win. If we have to rely on him driving against their bigs in the paint, we lose because they are so big and clog the lane so well.

4. Diaw healthy can be the difference maker in this series. He is not as heavy as their bigs, but he is smarter than them and a far better passer than them.

Do we win? Don't know. I already consider the Spurs' season a success, and that was before the first playoff series.

[703 Spurz]

Gonna have to be a pessimist like timvp.

The Grizzlies are just clicking at the right moment. You could think the Spurs have revenge on their minds, but they just look gassed coming off the Warriors series. So many question marks about the Spurs, while the Grizzlies seem to have things figured out.

I'm thinking Grizz in 6, tbh.

Eh they beat OKC by 6, 6, 6, and 4 points in their games. It'd be different if they beat their ass each game.

[DarrinS]

This series is going to be a dogfight, tbh.

[GritandGrind]

<Grizz fan.I think the Spurs could win this series but I just don't see Duncan surviving it.Also teams keep doing the same thing agains us they leave Prince and Allen open but they both have rings and find ways to win games for us when they double the Bigs.

[romsho]

9. The Grizzlies are at the very least as good defensively as the Spurs. Most likely, they're better. San Antonio was superior offensively for the majority of this season -- but they've fallen off a cliff in the last couple months. That ball-movement that made this team special is mostly gone. They don't have much in terms of individual creators. The Grizzlies offense isn't awesome but their scoring, on paper at least, will be more reliable since it'll come on the inside. Add in the points they'll create by forcing turnovers and hitting the offensive glass -- and I can't make a strong case for the Spurs having a better offense or defense right now.

10. We still really don't know how good the Spurs are at the moment. Should we take anything from sweeping the Lakers? Probably not. Is struggling with a Warriors team that was mediocre in the regular season a bad sign? Yeah, probably. Add in the poor way the Spurs ended the regular season -- and this team is still riddled with question marks. The Grizzlies, on the other hand, know exactly what they are and what they aren't.

While I think that Memphis is absolutely the best defensive team in the league, I think its actually a pretty good matchup for the Spurs. They are coming off a difficult series where there were a pile of matchup issues...small, quick guards who can create off the dribble and score in a variety of ways. Tough to game plan against. Memphis? Exact opposite. Other than size, offensively they don't do anything that would make you scratch your head. No creators other than Conley. They are an inside out team, without much of the out part. This is a good thing. After chasing Curry, Thompson and Jack around for six games, I think this is a welcome development. You don't think that will help Parker, Green, Leonard and Manu? I do.

Here's the real difference: while Memphis is better than the Spurs defensively, its not by a wide margin. But offensively? The Spurs are considerably better, more diverse, and can win in a variety of ways. This is a huge advantage for the Spurs. Because of their offensive limitations, Memphis is not a team prone to making huge scoring runs....this will keep the Spurs in games even when struggling offensively. This series all comes down to execution and imposing pace and style of play...which team can do it better. If we see the Spurs team we saw for most of the year, and I think we will, the Spurs will win.

Spurs in 6

[Beaverfuzz]

This series is going 6, GET 'ER DONE!

[davidbowie]

the grizz dont have......................

[davidbowie]

THE HEART OF A CHAMPION

[TJastal]

Grizz will be very tough, no doubt. For us to win we need to outmuscle their bigs ( a tall order) and stay hot with Green and Leonard. My X factors will be Neal (we need him now and maybe even Bayne.

If you want Bayless & Arthur to score 30+ a game for the series sure thing. :lol

Diaw is my x-factor. His ability to adequately check Arthur and provide spacing for the 2nd unit will be key.

[maverick1948]

I apologize in advance but my first reaction when thinking about the Spurs vs. Grizzlies is Memphis should be considered a heavy favorite. Right now, I'm thinking the Grizzlies in 5 or 6 is a pretty damn safe bet. I hate to be this pessimistic but I just don't see how the Spurs are going to win this series. Maybe someone can convince me otherwise but ...

1. Duncan isn't playing that well. He had trouble with Bogut and Marc Gasol is just a better version than Bogut. TD has had a great season but it's asking a ton for him to shine against the DPOY.

2. Parker is hurting. He had trouble scoring against a Warriors team with iffy defensive guards and limited bigs. What's going to happen against Conley -- arguably the best Parker defender in the league -- and a team with legit bigmen and other players with agile length? On paper, this looks like it'll be a disastrous series for TP unless he miraculously returns to health.

3. Ginobili is no longer in the stage of his career where he can carry a team. And besides, going up against Tony Allen would be a tall task no matter his age.

4. Splitter played a bit better today but he's still playing without physicality. He has trouble grabbing contested boards. He still has issues finishing in crowds. Those three faults play perfectly into the Grizzlies hands.

5. Leonard and Green just came off of a GREAT defensive series -- but Memphis does their damage on the inside. There really won't be anyone for those two to shut down. Thus, it'll be much more difficult to impact the series.

6. Diaw, Bonner and Blair are all poor matchups against a physical frontline.

7. Neal's ballhandling and decision-making against that pressure defense? Yikes.

8. Does Joseph have the experience to play in what is going to be a glorified back alley dogfight?

9. The Grizzlies are at the very least as good defensively as the Spurs. Most likely, they're better. San Antonio was superior offensively for the majority of this season -- but they've fallen off a cliff in the last couple months. That ball-movement that made this team special is mostly gone. They don't have much in terms of individual creators. The Grizzlies offense isn't awesome but their scoring, on paper at least, will be more reliable since it'll come on the inside. Add in the points they'll create by forcing turnovers and hitting the offensive glass -- and I can't make a strong case for the Spurs having a better offense or defense right now.

10. We still really don't know how good the Spurs are at the moment. Should we take anything from sweeping the Lakers? Probably not. Is struggling with a Warriors team that was mediocre in the regular season a bad sign? Yeah, probably. Add in the poor way the Spurs ended the regular season -- and this team is still riddled with question marks. The Grizzlies, on the other hand, know exactly what they are and what they aren't.




I hope beyond hope that I'm dead wrong. I really, really, really want the Spurs to win this series. (In fact, just making it to the Finals would make my year; I wouldn't even care if the Spurs lost to the Heat -- I just want this team to make the Finals one last time.)

Hopefully there are a few pieces to the puzzle that I'm missing. Maybe one of you can give me some hope. Maybe when I crunch the numbers, I'll see it differently.

I want to believe -- but as I'm sitting here right now, I just can't do it by any logical means. I'm sorry.


I'll try to point out a few things to change your mind. You may not agree with everything but think about them.

Point 1 Duncan was not playing bad against Bogut. That shows in the fact Duncan was hitting shots from all over. Bogut was called for a ton of fouls. You overlooked the games and repeated what the announce teams kept saying. I could never figure out how a man scoring 18 point with 9 boards with shooting averages was being dominated by someone who scored only when Duncan was on the bench or covering someone else.

Point 2 I agree here, Tony is hurting. He has been hurting for the last month to six weeks. But then again so is everyone else. Bumps, bruises and aches are part of the game. But TP has shown one thing in this series that has NEVER been there before. This IS his team now. He is the leader. Horrible game 6, but he played his butt off everywhere else but the scoring column and still hit the shots when they were really needed. Assists and defense were really great. But the one thing that stands out, is the leadership he showed early when he got on to Danny Green and Danny listened. That told me this is TP's team.

Point 3 11 assists 4 late when he too had a bad shooting game. But he still demanded the coverage. Vintage passing, vintage defense and smart play. To me he has the best eyes in the business. He can see the entire court all the time. Age has slowed him but those eyes are still sharp and he can pass.

Point 4 I agree Splitter has to come up bigger against the Grizz. But we still have our Donk on the bench. Baynes can impact the game with 6 hard fouls. Diaw and Bonner will force the Grizz out from under the basket. It only takes 1 basket from 3 point land to force that to happen. But this is the one area that scares me. Big D.

Point 5 Kawhi and Danny can affect this game. They are going to get matchups that will allow them to cheat on the Grizz bigs. Kawhi will get boards and may get steals that lead to dunks. Their defense will keep the Grizzles offense out of sync.

Point 6 You are right here but Diaw's savey and Bonner's 3 point shooting could note the word could make a difference also.

Point 7 and 8 combined. CJ is our back up PG. His defense is great and he is starting to impress me more with his shooting. Neal will see action when we need scoring and pray he doesnt blow too many defensive assignments.

Point 9 The Grizz try and control the pace of the game. They are a grind it out in the half court setting. Spurs can play that game, but can play up tempo as well. I look for Pop to push the game forcing the Grizzles to play a faster pace. As for the Spurs slumping for the late, 103.0 average for season, 102.8 for the 10 playoff games and we have yet to shorten the rotation to less than 10 players per game. Minutes for starter are up about 2 to 3 each but not much different than regular season.

Point 10 Ok we didnt have a good ending to the season but at times we were not really giving the effort with the injuries we were playing each game. The Spurs know exactly who they are. They are a team that can adapt to what ever they need when they need. Grizz are not that type of team. To me there are not a lot of question marks only Pop mixing up some lineups late in the season to get court time for players.

I look for a 6 game series. Spurs will win 2, Grizz will win 2 of the 1st 4 games. Then the series is on. Spurs will steal 1 in Memphis and win game 6 to end it.

Looking at it from 2 different views, I think we are a better TEAM than anyone else in the league. We dont depend on 1 or 2 players to carry us every night. We have great role players who step up when the time is needed. See game 6 against GSW. Leanard, Green, Joseph, Splitter and Neal (yes Neal) gave great minutes to the game last night.

[mosdef17]

What a joke of a thread...

[DarrinS]

Point 5 Kawhi and Danny can affect this game. They are going to get matchups that will allow them to cheat on the Grizz bigs. Kawhi will get boards and may get steals that lead to dunks. Their defense will keep the Grizzles offense out of sync.




I agree.

[milkyway21]

6 reasons for now:

1. HOMECOURT ADVANTAGE - San Antonio has won 16 of 17 home games against Memphis.

2. SAN ANTONIO LOST TO MEMPHIS 2X this season by just 2 & 3 pts and won 2x, (one by 21 pts.well, that was after the $250K fine:()
3. The Spurs is ONE of the few teams to score 100 against them.
4. Memphis has no 3-pt scoring threat.
5. This is a different Spurs team than they last met. This one has so many players who can score from the wings. But if they are afraid to shoot from there then it's another story ex Bonner.

6. While Memphis is better in defense, San Antonio is better in scoring. They can win this series from there. No need to grind inside against those guys if our shots from the wings are falling.

Spurs in 6..

[rayray2k8]

You just have to.. Believe, LJ. :)

[elec99]

The Grizz's main weapons are:

Free Throws - anywhere from 20-29 fta a game, and they are a superior ft shooting team.
Rebounds
Personal Fouls on opponents

This all revolves around zbo: He'll get rebounds, putbacks, and in the process get your bigs in foul trouble.
Even when zbo doesnt score well, they can still win because of the rebounding, fts, and fouls.

And then Bayless, he's their younger version of manu.

Yes gasol is dangerous, but in a contained way for the most part: He takes face-up jumpers, and turn around fadeaways from the baseline. You need length against him, more so than strength.

If you can contain zbo, and defend bayless, we have a very good chance of winning.


I am more optimistic about our defense. We can stay with younger and faster players in gsw, and now we wont exactly have to chase players off the 3 pt line. Plus we wont have to guess who's going to go off (curry, thompson, no wait barnes and jack,). It's all the usual suspects here. It's all about having the strength to force zbo into shots rather than layups, that way you limit their rebounds and your fouls.

If you fall behind on this team its much more difficult to catch up because the pace is so much slower.
But what the spurs have shown is that even with manu and tp shooting poorly we can find others to score, they're gonna be guessing on the defensive end on whos going to go off, not us.

But the grizz will win or lose depending on the play of zbo, and that doesnt necessarily mean his scoring, just his overall play.

[G-Nob]

Keep in mind, since Game 3, the Spurs have played phenominal team defense. Love, love, love the defense. Pop has really stressed the defense more so this postseason than of recent years and the team has bought into it as you have pointed out in the play of Danny Green. I cannot see why the Big Island and Green cannot put their stamp on this series as they did against GSW. On the other side, the Grizz could not have drawn a better opponent in the last round than OKC. Beyond the injuires, Sepa was not himself and OKC did not have a lockdown defender, allowing Conley and Zbo to go off. Part of OKC's demise was also mental. The wind left their sails when Westie went down. I don't care what anyone says. OKC never recovered from a morale standpoint after that.

The motherload of Mem's shots come from Conley and Zbo. I don't expect the Spurs to stop them but I have full confidence Pop will find the necessary combo to at least slow them down. Gasol one-on-one with Duncan will thrive. But as the Spurs showed against D-Ho, they can provide enough team disruption on him to make things difficult. With full attention to those three, you force guys like allen, prince and bayless to become volume shooters. I see a lot of wide open looks for those three on the perimeter and I'm sure the spurs will take that all day long.

When people evalute playoff matchups, they always look at the offensive side of the ball. I feel that defense will rule for both of these teams. This will be the best defensive team the grizz and spurs will face. Limit turnovers and stay focused on rebounding. Offense will find a way, even if both teams are in the 80's. I believe that is the kind of series we have to look forward to, and I will be thrilled if the Grizz are held to 80's/low 90's in each game.

[spursince#99]

Oh ye of little faith. It amazes me how weak minded and fickle many of you fans are. Lets not forget, OKC was in each and every last one of those games with a sure chance to win 1 if not all but couldn't hold on due to a couple of free throws being blown by Durant. However, Durant didn't play well at ALL, nor did Kevin Martin, and neither did Ibaka. Keep that in mind.

























Fucking clowns smh born quitters

[SouthernFried]

<Grizz fan.I think the Spurs could win this series but I just don't see Duncan surviving it.

You could make a lot of good points about why the Grizz win this...but, this point is just stupid. No offense.

[SouthernFried]

The biggest reason Spurs should win this?

They are considered the underdogs. Nothing motivates Tim, Manu and Tony better...than being dismissed.

[rexb]

I think ZBo will have a field day against the Spurs bigs. He dominated the OKC frontcourt of Perkins, Ibaka and Collison. Plus they have Gasol. The Spurs have Duncan, Splitter, Diaw and Bonner which kind of scares me. The quickness and length of Prince, Allen and Conley could not be under estimated as well. Also, Pop can no longer use his hack a bad free throw shooter, Zach? I don't think so. To think, Grizzlies have a better chance beating the Heat IMHO.

Good thing with Spurs is that they are healthier at this point of the season compared to the previous seasons which is great! The past few years, it was either Parker got injured, Manu got injured or Duncan not 100% so they've fallen short. This year they now have young players with more experience role players in Green, Leonard and Splitter. If the Spurs continue to execute their offense, keep up the spacing so Manu and Parker can go to the lanes, and the shots are falling for Green/Leonard/Neal then the Spurs have a chance. Also, the X factor is Bonner, ha ha..if he hits even one 3 pointer on a game, the Spurs will win that game! Looking forward for this series and hoping Spurs go to the finals and beat the Heatles.

[ManuTastic]

TimVP, you said it yourself:

"5. Leonard and Green just came off of a GREAT defensive series -- but Memphis does their damage on the inside. There really won't be anyone for those two to shut down. Thus, it'll be much more difficult to impact the series."

Now look at the other side of that coin: since they don't have to stick tight to great perimeter players, they'll have much more latitude to dig in and help double the post monsters. Basically I agree with the board consensus: pack the paint, pack the paint, pack the paint. Grizz can't shoot over the top.

[spurraider21]

Manu is bound to have better shooting nights :lol

but seriously, this Memphis team is near identical to the one we played in 2011. Replace Battier with Prince, throw in Pondexter for Mayo, and add Bayless. Parker is a better player than he was in 2011, Timmy is in much better physical condition that he was that year, Manu as we all know was severely banged up then. A big difference for us is the replacement of RJ with Kawhi, the added minutes to Splitter, and the addition to Diaw. I can see us coming away with this. What I like about this series is that we can afford to go on a dry spell here and there of offense, but it would be OK because the Grizz wouldn't be scoring much either.

[dbreiden83080]

Thanks for depressing us all.. I am going to take a nap...

[phxspurfan]

I wont be surprised if the Spurs won:

- Spurs are more battle tested than they were last year. They just closed out a hot playoff team while their top 3 players shat the bed. On the road. It takes resourcefulness and defense.
- Spurs just used coaching and effort to shut down a top offense. Grizz are a lot like last year's Jazz. Good inside but not a top offense.
- Spurs are relatively healthy. Guys may look crappy but they are healthy. They may not all drop 25 a game but we may not need that since the Grizz will be holding games to the 90s.
- Grizz used a simple defensive strategy to beat the Chimpbrookless Thunder, and got to focus on only one threat. We can use their overconfidence to take an early series lead.
- If we take an early series lead, I think we put it away in 5 or 6. This Spurs team remembers the Grizz beatdown of a couple seasons ago, and guys who were powerless then like Manu and TD will come out firing now.

[lovetp9]

no matter what,
GO SPURS GO !!

[TJastal]

Spurs in 5, taking games 1, 2, 3, 5

[Knoxxx]

They can't shoot 3s. Conley and Pondexter are the only credible 3 point threats and they don't shoot them as much as GS does.

And Baynes is always an option.

Right on who does Memphis have that can score? Spurs in 5 or 6. We have plenty of bigs we can throw at Gasol and Randolph. Golden St whipped what had been a very hot Denver team to advance. Yes we could have played better, but they deserve credit. If we were playing our best we'd be sweeping all these fools and maybe take 5 to dispatch Miami. Instead we will take the two Ms in 5-6 and 6-7 games, respectively and the trophy will look just as good in the case regardless. :toast

[dbreiden83080]

Look at it this way which do you prefer? The young and insanely talented 3 headed monster that was OKC last year or Memphis this year? Memphis is solid all the way around and great on D but there is no superstar on that team we have to panic about. OKC basically had 3 Superstars. I think this will be a long tough series but honestly Miami is not playing that well and they are in for a tough series with probably Indiana also..

[rjv]

i guess this is why pop is a coach and timvp isn't

[Knoxxx]

I wont be surprised if the Spurs won:

- Spurs are more battle tested than they were last year. They just closed out a hot playoff team while their top 3 players shat the bed. On the road. It takes resourcefulness and defense.
- Spurs just used coaching and effort to shut down a top offense. Grizz are a lot like last year's Jazz. Good inside but not a top offense.
- Spurs are relatively healthy. Guys may look crappy but they are healthy. They may not all drop 25 a game but we may not need that since the Grizz will be holding games to the 90s.
- Grizz used a simple defensive strategy to beat the Chimpbrookless Thunder, and got to focus on only one threat. We can use their overconfidence to take an early series lead.
- If we take an early series lead, I think we put it away in 5 or 6. This Spurs team remembers the Grizz beatdown of a couple seasons ago, and guys who were powerless then like Manu and TD will come out firing now.

My recollection was neither Duncan or even more so Ginobili were healthy/right for that series. In addition, Parker has a score to settle with Conley. Remember what happened after the all star game when he had a score to settle with Paul 31-4 I think was that score.

[dbreiden83080]

And Heading into the regular season this year if somebody said that "OKC will play Memphis in the playoffs without Westbrook or Harden" Who is picking OKC? I would not have..

[SpurPadre]

Also Manu doesn't have a BROKEN ARM

2011 One-Armed Manu is better than healthy but older 2013 Manu, tbh, unfortunately. In that series, Manu still managed to average 20.6 PPG. Does anyone see him averaging that this time around? I still like our chances in this series but the "Manu is healthy now" argument doesn't hold water.

[dbreiden83080]

2011 One-Armed Manu is better than healthy but older 2013 Manu, tbh, unfortunately. In that series, Manu still managed to average 20.6 PPG. Does anyone see him averaging that this time around? I still like our chances in this series but the "Manu is healthy now" argument doesn't hold water.

He missed game 1 and the series went 6.. And we have KL now.. Manu doesn't need to put up 20..

[EricB]

They also don't have a Vazquez nor a Battier. Two huge reasons the spurs lost

[rascal]

Just wait until the Spurs drop game 1 how quickly the false optimism in here will turn.

[SpurPadre]

He missed game 1 and the series went 6.. And we have KL now.. Manu doesn't need to put up 20..

True, he doesn't need to put up 20 in this series but that's not the point. KL will be the key x factor in this series for sure, though. While his post up game still needs improvement, he's starting to expand his repertoire and has been playing with more confidence. Again, I like our chances.

[Rummpd]

Spurs simply the better, more experienced, talented, and deeper team - what is there to say other than that?

Grizz have beat wounded teams and not in an impressive fashion - LOL at the all the media spinning for them and Spurs fans believing the BS

[rascal]

They also don't have a Vazquez nor a Battier. Two huge reasons the spurs lost

They have Prince now.

[rascal]

True, he doesn't need to put up 20 in this series but that's not the point. KL will be the key x factor in this series for sure, though. While his post up game still needs improvement, he's starting to expand his repertoire and has been playing with more confidence. Again, I like our chances.

Prince will shut down Leonard.

[SenorSpur]

Great writeup by Timvp. I'm just as pessimistic heading into this series for all the reasons that were articulate above.

In order for the Spurs to win, the following must occur:

- Spurs must carry their stout defensive mindset, borne from the last series, into this next series.
- Splitter MUST play with an increased level of physicality against the Memphis bigs
- Spurs role players MUST contribute on a consistent basis to offset the decline of Ginobili and the overall occasional fatigue of Big Three
- Bonner cannot and should not play even limited minutes. This is not a series for him because it's all about physicality and Bonner doesn't meet the challenge. He proved it so memorably a couple of years ago, when he sucked on both ends of the court.
- This series screams for additional physicality. It would ideal for Pop to do the unthinkable - insert Baynes for some brief minutes. Given the fact that there is no more physical big on the roster, any limited contribution from Baynes, even in a very limited role, could come in handy. Of course, this will never happen, but he would certainly be a more viable option for this series than Bonner.

[pikkiwoki]

They have Prince now.

Prince has been mostly trash this playoffs. He's washed up, tbh.

[SpurPadre]

Prince will shut down Leonard.

We'll see. That's not a given. Prince is a good defender but not as good as when he was with the Pistons. He's older and slower while he's gonna have to deal with a 21 year old, rising star in Leonard.

[313]

The Spurs and Griz split their 4 games this season, with the home team winning every game. Two of the games went to overtime, and a third was decided by just 2 points (a Memphis win). Only the Spurs managed a convincing win in the series, logging a 103-82 victory on Jan. 16.

In the January blowout victory, the Spurs were without Manu Ginobili, and in their OT victory in December they were without Kawhi Leonard. And in the Spurs' 92-90 loss on April Fool's Day, the Spurs were without Tim, Manu, and Kawhi.

In two of the four games, the Spurs tied Memphis for total rebounds. In one game, they out-rebounded Memphis by 1 board, and in one game the Spurs were out-rebounded by 4. In other words, the Spurs held their own in the rebound department, Gasol and Randolph notwithstanding. The Grizzlies did get more offensive rebounds that the Spurs in all four games, beating them by a margin of 2,2,3, and 5. But the Spurs still managed to outscore Memphis in the paint in their two victories.

The Spurs biggest problem against Memphis this year was turnovers, with the Spurs committing 16, 16, and 19 in three of the games. In their blowout victory, the Spurs only committed 13 TO's. If they take care of the ball, it's going to take away one of Memphis' biggest advantages.

Tony parker has scored 17, 25, 30, and 30 in each of the Spurs games against Memphis this season, on 36-71 shooting. Tony definitely looked beaten up tonight. I guess we'll see how much of that was the quicker defense of Golden State, and getting hammered against all those moving screens. There's no doubt that the Warrior's strategy was to stop Parker. But if Parker is healthy, I don't think the Griz have the personnel to do the same to him.

In the four games against the Spurs, Zach Randolph was just 21-58, while Gasol was 24-47. Someone started a thread about who is going to defend Randolph. The bigger question is who will defend Gasol?

The two big question marks, in my mind: Are the Big 3 really as gassed as it seems, or will they be able to play Memphis the way they have during the regular season. (Remember, they were without Manu one game, Kawhi another, and Manu, Kawhi, and Tim in a third.) And will the Spurs' role players step up to the level of the regular season?

I think you're right to have a healthy fear of Memphis. But based on what I see from their previous four meetings this season, the Griz aren't prohibitive favorites unless the Spurs turn out to be totally spent. And I think that after what Kawhi and Green have just been through, they are going to feel like the game is moving in slow motion. I fully expect them to bring Conley and Prince back down to Earth.
Good take.

:tu

[BadOne]

Rudy Gay wasn't a factor in 2011, as he was injured, so his absence changes nothing. The Grizzlies, however aren't the same team. Aside from that one game in Memphis, the Spurs were IN each of those games in 2011 and had chances to win them. If O.J. Mayo's 3 ball, which was after a buzzer, had rightfully been waived off, and or if Parker doesn't leave Shane Battier open for that last minute 3, the Spurs win Game 1. Both Battier and Mayo are gone [to a lesser note, so is Gay]. While their offense is only strong on the inside, they aren't known for their perimeter game. With Prince on the wing, I think Memphis's perimeter defense has only gotten better. Kawhi is a significant improvement over RJ & a confident and tough [key words] Splitter will make it more difficult than McDyess did at that time. We're better offensively, than last time, but their defense has gotten better enough to offset it. In the end, it's going to be a whole lot on Tim & Tiago's shoulders. I agree that Baynes should get more PT at this point than Bonner or Blair, but you know Pop and his schizo rotations. The Spurs will have to execute to perfection and take care of the basketball. If they can do that, I'll say Spurs in 6 or less. Every little play will make the biggest difference in this series IMO.

GO SPURS GO!!!

[elec99]

Both teams are different today when compared to a couple of years ago. You have to think our chances are better today than back then.
They're an exceptional team but have lost a few players that cause us fits: Battier, vasquez, mayo. Not that bayless will be easy but I'll take that trade off.


That being said, no one can guard zbo. He's listed at 260 but plays a lot heavier than that, we will need ALL our available fouls. I think we'll be playing their game if you just try and defend him straight up, thats what everyone does. We have to make them uncomfortable:

Pack the paint ala the first series, make him guess if he should put the ball on the floor or not, then when he does it's traffic city, he has to pass. And then of course pop may even front him to start. Let's see what their rotation is like.

Also put a body on gasol when he's at the top of the key. He is able to pass and shoot too freely. Put a body on him, he's not the player to put the ball on the floor from way out above the free throw line.

Conley is very under rated, i dont know how he gets 28 pts but he does. It'll be green or kawai on him, with tp stuck on prince. Pop will make prince take over like he did with barnes or jack.

[Splits]

http://static.fjcdn.com/gifs/oh+shit+oh_e8fd36_4584714.gif

[Homeland Security]

Memphis reminds me of how the Spurs and Pistons played in the mid-'00s. More like the Pistons -- no superstars, grind-it-out, tough as nails. They play "the right way."

These Spurs are the output of a Pop project to see how far a team can go when an aging Tim Duncan with less lateral quickness means they can't play "the right way" anymore, and have to rely more on backcourt offense.

Emotionally it feels like Memphis, the team that plays "the right way," should win. But looking at the matchups... not so fast. Compared to the Spurs team that lost two years ago to the Grizzlies, Tiago Splitter, Kawhi Leonard, and Danny Green represent a lot more size and length. Memphis isn't going to be able to feast inside like they did two years ago.

[024]

It's funny, all the perimeter players will probably shut each other down. Tony Allen can shut down Parker, Prince can shut down Ginobili. On the other side, Leonard can shut down Prince and hopefully Green can contain Conley. No one really holds the advantage in the perimeter in this series. However, the Grizzlies have a massive advantage inside the paint and that will be the difference. Splitter needs to get his head out of his ass because it's going to be a tough series inside the paint. The bench would usually be the saving advantage for the Spurs but they've been playing mostly like shit lately. Bonner/neal and even Diaw needs to find ways to score.

[FvckMavs]

It's funny, all the perimeter players will probably shut each other down. Tony Allen can shut down Parker, Prince can shut down Ginobili. On the other side, Leonard can shut down Prince and hopefully Green can contain Conley. No one really holds the advantage in the perimeter in this series. However, the Grizzlies have a massive advantage inside the paint and that will be the difference. Splitter needs to get his head out of his ass because it's going to be a tough series inside the paint. The bench would usually be the saving advantage for the Spurs but they've been playing mostly like shit lately. Bonner/neal and even Diaw needs to find ways to score.

:nope

[benstanfield]

I apologize in advance but my first reaction when thinking about the Spurs vs. Grizzlies is Memphis should be considered a heavy favorite. Right now, I'm thinking the Grizzlies in 5 or 6 is a pretty damn safe bet. I hate to be this pessimistic but I just don't see how the Spurs are going to win this series. Maybe someone can convince me otherwise but ...

1. Duncan isn't playing that well. He had trouble with Bogut and Marc Gasol is just a better version than Bogut. TD has had a great season but it's asking a ton for him to shine against the DPOY.

2. Parker is hurting. He had trouble scoring against a Warriors team with iffy defensive guards and limited bigs. What's going to happen against Conley -- arguably the best Parker defender in the league -- and a team with legit bigmen and other players with agile length? On paper, this looks like it'll be a disastrous series for TP unless he miraculously returns to health.

3. Ginobili is no longer in the stage of his career where he can carry a team. And besides, going up against Tony Allen would be a tall task no matter his age.

4. Splitter played a bit better today but he's still playing without physicality. He has trouble grabbing contested boards. He still has issues finishing in crowds. Those three faults play perfectly into the Grizzlies hands.

5. Leonard and Green just came off of a GREAT defensive series -- but Memphis does their damage on the inside. There really won't be anyone for those two to shut down. Thus, it'll be much more difficult to impact the series.

6. Diaw, Bonner and Blair are all poor matchups against a physical frontline.

7. Neal's ballhandling and decision-making against that pressure defense? Yikes.

8. Does Joseph have the experience to play in what is going to be a glorified back alley dogfight?

9. The Grizzlies are at the very least as good defensively as the Spurs. Most likely, they're better. San Antonio was superior offensively for the majority of this season -- but they've fallen off a cliff in the last couple months. That ball-movement that made this team special is mostly gone. They don't have much in terms of individual creators. The Grizzlies offense isn't awesome but their scoring, on paper at least, will be more reliable since it'll come on the inside. Add in the points they'll create by forcing turnovers and hitting the offensive glass -- and I can't make a strong case for the Spurs having a better offense or defense right now.

10. We still really don't know how good the Spurs are at the moment. Should we take anything from sweeping the Lakers? Probably not. Is struggling with a Warriors team that was mediocre in the regular season a bad sign? Yeah, probably. Add in the poor way the Spurs ended the regular season -- and this team is still riddled with question marks. The Grizzlies, on the other hand, know exactly what they are and what they aren't.




I hope beyond hope that I'm dead wrong. I really, really, really want the Spurs to win this series. (In fact, just making it to the Finals would make my year; I wouldn't even care if the Spurs lost to the Heat -- I just want this team to make the Finals one last time.)

Hopefully there are a few pieces to the puzzle that I'm missing. Maybe one of you can give me some hope. Maybe when I crunch the numbers, I'll see it differently.

I want to believe -- but as I'm sitting here right now, I just can't do it by any logical means. I'm sorry.

1. Thunder stayed close in every game w/ Perkins playing at a negative PER. Duncan just needs to rebound and play D, any efficient or reliable scoring is a bonus.

2. Everyone's hurting at this point in the year. Parker had a few miraculous games against GS, and chasing Curry/Jack/Barnes around on D had him gassed most of the other games. One day off between games will do that.

3. Don't need him to carry the team, just let the game come to him. Manu is a facilitator for the 2nd team, something the Grizzlies sorely lack.

4. Splitter played against undersized 4s this entire series. He'll be fine banging down low. Nobody is gonna stop the Grizzlies front line, but he's just as well equipped as most big men to slow them down. He doesn't need to be laterally mobile against the Grizzlies.

5. Bad bad BADS. Leonard and Green are great double teaming bigs, and they're just as good staying home on shooters. The Grizzlies will have to do literally 80% of their scoring down low if they want to have Allen/Prince/Conley in the game.

6. Baynes.

7. Yes, we all have terrible memories of Neal against the Grizzlies. He's never done anything but screw up against the Grizzlies.

8. He'll be fine. Nobody the Grizzlies can bring off the bench will make him pay for any lack of experience.

9. The Grizzlies offense is as good as Randolph's fluctuating shooting percentage, assuming Gasol and Randolph stay out of foul trouble. Conley is ok, but with Green or Leonard on him he's got nothing. Prince is basically Diaw-level passive at the SF. Allen, just no. This Grizzlies team isn't designed to blow people out but to win tight games scoring most of their points down low. It comes down to their AVERAGE offense versus our PRETTY GOOD defense, and their GREAT defense versus our PRETTY GOOD offense.

10. I don't know where this "know who they are" about the Grizzlies comes from. Hollins bitched and moaned constantly about the Gay trade. Prince looks either confused or just bored on offense. Is Arthur their first big off the bench? Hollins doesn't seem to have an answer. Their backup PG is Keyon Motherfucking Dooling. Their sixth man is Jarryieid Bayless. Come the fuck on. They were down 2-0 to the Clippers in round 1 and people were ready to throw Hollins in a wood chipper cause he wasn't playing Allen. They figured things out and won the next four, then beat the equivalent of the Lakers. Spurs beat the depleted Lakers, then figured things out against the red-hot Warriors and shut down their two offensive threats.

[manufan10]

This is why:

335454223720386563

[tmtcsc]

Did the Golden State series feel like it lasted forever? Seriously. It was painful to watch and just seemed to drag on. Even last night's game felt like it lasted about 5 hours.

[td4mvp21]

I don't think the Spurs will win either. Their offense was too good for Memphis during the regular season. It's not at that level right now. But here are some things I think work in the Spurs' favor:

1) I think they lacked focus the first two games against GS and that was a huge reason why this series went 6 games. They shouldn't have struggled, make no mistake about it. However, they'll be locked in against Memphis because you know they'll want revenge. Basically, if they lose it's because they're not good enough, not because they're underestimating an opponent.

2) The Spurs haven't really had problems with defending frontcourts this year. Statistically, a jumpshooting team like GS gave the defense more problems, no? Obviously they're not gonna shut down ZBo and Gasol, but I'd be surprised if they struggled with them like they did in 2011.

3) The Grizzlies are arguably just as flawed offensively as the Spurs. Both teams lack a true superstar, and the Grizzlies lack outside shooting. The Spurs haven't exactly been shooting lights out, though. Both of these factors typically lead to playoff exits.

[The Reckoning]

well that and spurs no longer have RJ

[024]

:nope
Why? That's the bench Pop will ride until the end. If the Spurs bench don't out produce the Grizzlies bench, things will get ugly.

[Splits]

Sports books have Spurs as slight favorites to advance at -125

[DarrinS]

zPAmlTesUac

[I. Hustle]

http://a.espncdn.com/photo/2013/0516/nba_a_curry_b1_286.jpg

[SpursRock20]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mjdjaYeWBQA

Does this well-articulated individual do the trick?

[hater]

:lmao timvp

what an attention whore

this series could go either way easily

saying either team is overwhelming favorite is plain silly :lol

[TD 21]

I'm skeptical too (not because of the overrated, limited Grizzlies, but because of Parker's and now Leonard's health, as well as this team's penchant for melting down in the playoffs . . . though I must say, the unexpected 3 days off between games 2 and 3 could very well swing the series in favor of the Spurs), but to say the Grizzlies should be an overwhelming favorite is just plain stupid. roycrikside already tore your pathetic, "emo" post to shreds though, so I won't bother elaborating.

[Budkin]

timvp is just trying to insulate himself from the soul crushing disappointment we felt last year when we just assumed the Spurs were winning it all.

[moisaenz]

Leonard will be ok. He doesn't have to play as much as he did against the Warriors.

[lmbebo]

Can I go out on a limb and say Spurs sweep?

[hater]

to say the Grizzlies should be an overwhelming favorite is just plain stupid. roycrikside already tore your pathetic, "emo" post to shreds though, so I won't bother elaborating.

:lmao

[MR-Clutch]

I think it being an odd year helps our odds as well...

[EricB]

They have Prince now.

Battier >>>> Prince. Battier is a way better shooter and defender and its not close.

[MR-Clutch]

As I said earlier, kawhi has to leave his imprint on this series. When Kawhi is rolling and confident we're nearly unbeatable and it makes it a lot harder for a defense to zero in on any one player. In the 2 games we lost against the warriors, leonard scored 11 points each on .45 and .35 fg% respectively, with no 3s made in either as well. In our wins he scored at least 15 ppg, made at least 1 3 pointer, and on average had a fg% of 63.7%. He will arguably be the most athletic player on the court against grizzlies, so it's important to utilize him. As usual, it will be important to get kawhi and Danny going early and keep them involved throughout the game...I'm looking at you TP...If kawhi can emerge as the player we all know he's capable of becoming and average 15-18ppg, I think we take this series in 5.

[Yuixafun]

I think Parker goes berserk this series.

He knows out of the Big three he has the most life left.

He's not that stumbling kid who got pulled for Claxton, or collapsed against packed the paint defenses.. or the Eva's playboy, or the club fighter/promoter.

He's mature, full grown, he remembers what it is to be a champion, and his spirit has a burning desire to feel it once again. I just have this notion that Parker is hungering for redemption and validation, to prove himself at this season in his manhood. But not just for himself.

For Pop, for Teemy, for Manu... for San Antonio, for the next generation spurs that will be his to lead, for France lol...

[TrainOfThought5]

timvp is just trying to insulate himself from the soul crushing disappointment we felt last year when we just assumed the Spurs were winning it all.

[Spur|n|Austin]

Great writeup by Timvp. I'm just as pessimistic heading into this series for all the reasons that were articulate above.

In order for the Spurs to win, the following must occur:

- Spurs must carry their stout defensive mindset, borne from the last series, into this next series.
- Splitter MUST play with an increased level of physicality against the Memphis bigs
- Spurs role players MUST contribute on a consistent basis to offset the decline of Ginobili and the overall occasional fatigue of Big Three
- Bonner cannot and should not play even limited minutes. This is not a series for him because it's all about physicality and Bonner doesn't meet the challenge. He proved it so memorably a couple of years ago, when he sucked on both ends of the court.
- This series screams for additional physicality. It would ideal for Pop to do the unthinkable - insert Baynes for some brief minutes. Given the fact that there is no more physical big on the roster, any limited contribution from Baynes, even in a very limited role, could come in handy. Of course, this will never happen, but he would certainly be a more viable option for this series than Bonner.

This cannot be stressed enough, but we're all smart enough to know Pop's love child is going to get minutes. It's as sure as death and taxes.

[TD 21]

I think Parker goes berserk this series.

He knows out of the Big three he has the most life left.

He's not that stumbling kid who got pulled for Claxton, or collapsed against packed the paint defenses.. or the Eva's playboy, or the club fighter/promoter.

He's mature, full grown, he remembers what it is to be a champion, and his spirit has a burning desire to feel it once again. I just have this notion that Parker is hungering for redemption and validation, to prove himself at this season in his manhood. But not just for himself.

For Pop, for Teemy, for Manu... for San Antonio, for the next generation spurs that will be his to lead, for France lol...

Does he . . . or has Ginobili been holding back?

I'm not totally convinced, but I'm wondering if he was so conscious of not getting injured in two series that he knew they weren't going to lose (the Warriors series, frustrating as it was at times, always felt like a long shot, especially after Curry tweaked his ankle), that that's why he basically didn't even bother to attempt to attack for the most part.

He's also got to be the freshest of the three and I think he realizes that, particularly if Parker and Leonard aren't physically right, it's time to throw caution to the wind. If it leads to injury, so be it, because they're probably not winning this series without him being more aggressive and shouldering more of the scoring load anyway.

[z0sa]

Packing the paint vs the Grizz will be extremely effective. The problem in this series will be scoring. I am convinced that if the Spurs roleplayers shoot the ball at a high clip, Spurs will roll the Grizzlies. Last night's game continues to fit my theory that this team goes as Kawhi, Green, and Diaw goes, obviously providing the Big 3/Pop's playmaking and decisions generate open looks.

[baseline bum]

LJ, if there's one thing you can really look forward to, it's that the Spurs just went in and took a playoff game on the road in a crazy building when Tony Parker shot 3/16 and Tim Duncan had to be benched. I think grinding out a win like that has to say something very positive about the rest of the team.

[MR-Clutch]

Did the Golden State series feel like it lasted forever? Seriously. It was painful to watch and just seemed to drag on. Even last night's game felt like it lasted about 5 hours.

It didn't help that every freakin game besides 4 was a late game. It's made it hard to stay awake at work the following day.

[RD2191]

It's funny, all the perimeter players will probably shut each other down. Tony Allen can shut down Parker, Prince can shut down Ginobili. On the other side, Leonard can shut down Prince and hopefully Green can contain Conley. No one really holds the advantage in the perimeter in this series. However, the Grizzlies have a massive advantage inside the paint and that will be the difference. Splitter needs to get his head out of his ass because it's going to be a tough series inside the paint. The bench would usually be the saving advantage for the Spurs but they've been playing mostly like shit lately. Bonner/neal and even Diaw needs to find ways to score.
Stop posting, tbh.

[spursince#99]

oh and lets not forget, Bonner and BLAIR were getting SIGNIFICANT minutes that entire series in 2011

[Budkin]

We will channel the power of the new chat room to drive the Spurs to victory!

[milkyway21]

oh and lets not forget, Bonner and BLAIR were getting SIGNIFICANT minutes that entire series in 2011

I was against Bonner playing against GS, but I think because of Memphis size, Bonner could see significant minutes here. Because he is one big mamba who can shoot from the 3pt line.

[Solid D]

"Playing in the half court doesn't work real well against [the Grizzlies]." -- Spurs head coach Gregg Popovich. 12-02-12 (After the Spurs came from behind to beat the Grizzlies in OT early in the regular season)

I see this series as a huge challenge for the Spurs.

[EricB]

I just fail to see how a team that struggles to score against decent defenses, I just, whatever.

[Spur Bank]

Bodog has the Spurs as veeeeeeeeeeery slight series favorites:
891 Memphis Grizzlies -105

892 San Antonio Spurs -115

I'm seeing some sites online with the Grizz as favorites, some as the Spurs. Vegas thinks it's extremely close -- imo, it's not wise to bet against Vegas.

[RuffnReadyOzStyle]

I like the defensive matchups for us in this series:

TP can rest on Allen
Green/Leonard can dog Conley the whole time, the other can control Prince
Splitter and Diaw are both good Z-Bo defenders, particularly Splitter
Duncan gave Bogut fits, he'll do the same to Gasol (although Gasol is a champ and will also cause problems for Duncan)
Diaw needs to stay in Arthur's grill so he doesn't get hot from midrange
Manu can corral Pondexter

The bigger question is whether TP can get healthy enough to hurt them offensively, and how often our offence will go into a funk like it did for the last 15 mins of game 6. IMHO the team just needs to have faith in the system and stick to it.

[Strategic]

I'm not sure Timvp, but one of the teams has stars and superstars. The other doesn't. I don't see this series as a debutant ball. It will take more than one lock down defender to handle the Spurs. I look for Pop to go a little deeper in his front line rotation, maybe give the Grizz the same treatment as he gave the Lakers. Even though Randolph's numbers are good I haven't seen him make the impossible shots he used two years ago vs. the Spurs. With Green and Joseph taking Conley out of his game, the Spurs in 5.

[Chomag]

That pressure defense of thier is going to crush Neal is a grantee I think. I feel the Spurs still have the better players overall in this series but it's a bad match up for them, It's Going to be a tough one

[TheGoldStandard]

Gary Neal should see > 4 minutes in this game.

[skulls138]

- We're a better passing team
- We're a better 3 pt team
- We have alot of beef to throw at the big guys
- We win everything other than the bigs
- If Duncan did so bad, how come he was high scorer in the last game and Bogut had 3 pts, 7 rebs
- Were deeper
- Parker
- Last time we got beat by the Grizz we didnt have Green, Leonard, Splitter and more
- Last time we got beat by the Grizz, Duncan was gimpy

[SpursFanaticInVegas]

If the Grizz bigs get in foul trouble (which they do often) they will get run out of the gym. Its real simple: Attack, Attack, Attack Gasol and Randolph cannot be on the court at the same time. Leonard has to become the X Factor fighting for boards and keeping Conley at bay.

[SpursFanaticInVegas]

Gary Neal should see > 4 minutes in this game.

Bonner and Neal = 2 mins each only PLEASE